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- yizongyizong
  ·2021-08-26
  yes
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,233 评论
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- yizongyizong
  ·2021-08-18
  yes
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,626 评论
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- yizongyizong
  ·2021-08-18
  yes
  A Correction Is Due And It Could Be Deep<blockquote>修正是到期的，而且可能是深刻的</blockquote>
  Summary The stock market is historically overvalued. The stock market is overbought on long-term ch
  A Correction Is Due And It Could Be Deep<blockquote>修正是到期的，而且可能是深刻的</blockquote>
  1,492 评论
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- yizongyizong
  ·2021-08-18
  yes
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,833 评论
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- yizongyizong
  ·2021-08-01
  oh no
  Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>
  “Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970
  Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>
  2,946 1
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- yizongyizong
  ·2021-06-26
  oh no
  UPDATE 1-Tesla 'recalls' vehicles in China for online software update<blockquote>更新 1-特斯拉在华“召回”车辆进行在线软件更新</blockquote>
  (Adds details) BEIJING, June 26 (Reuters) - Chinese regulators said on Saturday Tesla Inc would
  UPDATE 1-Tesla 'recalls' vehicles in China for online software update<blockquote>更新 1-特斯拉在华“召回”车辆进行在线软件更新</blockquote>
  1,888 评论
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- yizongyizong
  ·2021-06-18
  yes
  1 Big Reason to Dump AMD and Buy NVIDIA<blockquote>抛售 AMD 并购买 NVIDIA 的一大理由</blockquote>
  The graphics specialist enjoys a huge advantage over its smaller rival in an important market.
  1 Big Reason to Dump AMD and Buy NVIDIA<blockquote>抛售 AMD 并购买 NVIDIA 的一大理由</blockquote>
  1,304 评论
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22:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Correction Is Due And It Could Be Deep<blockquote>修正是到期的，而且可能是深刻的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144088215","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe stock market is historically overvalued.\nThe stock market is overbought on long-term ch","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The stock market is historically overvalued.</li>  <li>The stock market is overbought on long-term charts.</li>  <li>Large caps stocks can easily correct 20%-30%, certain Meme and Zombie stocks could be much worse.</li>  <li>The Fed, as always, will play a pivotal role in how deep of a decline we see, watch the taper closely.</li>  <li>Raise cash quickly to the high end of your asset allocation policy.</li> </ul> Any look at an investment should start by asking about what the risks are. For context, we often look at the broader S&amp;P 500 (SPY) which represents most of the market capitalization in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股市历来被高估。</li><li>从长期图表来看，股市超买。</li><li>大盘股可以轻松修正 20%-30%，某些模因和僵尸股可能会更糟。</li><li>美联储将一如既往地在我们看到的下滑深度方面发挥关键作用，请密切关注缩减规模。</li><li>快速筹集现金到你的资产配置政策的高端。</li></ul>任何对投资的看法都应该从询问风险是什么开始。对于背景，我们经常关注更广泛的标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF），它代表了美国大部分市值。</blockquote></p><p> Last year I warned that the stock market could become very overvalued. I urged caution in picking out stocks and ETFs. I also recommended Tesla (TSLA), Bitcoin (BTC-USD), the Invesco Clean Energy ETF (PBW) and the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), so I am no uber-bear.</p><p><blockquote>去年我警告说，股市可能会被严重高估。我敦促在挑选股票和 ETF 时要谨慎。我还推荐了特斯拉 (TSLA)、比特币 (BTC-USD)、景顺清洁能源 ETF (PBW) 和方舟创新 ETF (ARKK)，所以我不是超级熊。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the stock market is broadly overvalued, including both the Meme stocks and the Zombie stocks. Investor ideas on TINA - there's no alternative, FOMO - fear of missing out, and \"buy the dips\" has worked for over a year on the back of Fed stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>如今，股市普遍被高估，包括模因股和僵尸股。投资者对蒂娜的看法——别无选择，FOMO——害怕错过，在美联储刺激措施的支持下，“逢低买入”已经奏效了一年多。</blockquote></p><p> Now that stimulus is poised to start being reduced we can look back at history. We have been to this game before. Expect a choppy stock market to emerge imminently, if it hasn't already.</p><p><blockquote>既然刺激准备开始减少，我们可以回顾历史。我们以前来过这个游戏。预计动荡的股市即将出现（如果还没有的话）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>S&amp;P 500 Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500估值</b></blockquote></p><p> I have talked about excessive valuations in the stock market since around New Year’s. Here's about where we stand now.</p><p><blockquote>从新年前后开始，我就一直在谈论股市估值过高的问题。这就是我们现在的处境。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f383143c5f4b2cf897f5a32c3dffb282\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"660\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> I pay special attention to Crestmont which I believe has an exceptional methodology. Here’s a combined look.</p><p><blockquote>我特别关注Crestmont，我相信它有一个特殊的方法。这是一个组合外观。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba63b9e6f3bb97de066c43c7580a7d0\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"660\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Clearly, valuations are partying like 1999. This includes the zombies that are on borrowed (literally) time. The questions are how long the party can last and which companies will crash the hardest?</p><p><blockquote>显然，估值就像 1999 年一样狂欢。这包括借来的（字面意思）时间的僵尸。问题是聚会能持续多久，哪些公司会崩溃最严重？</blockquote></p><p> While I like the entire tech-driven innovation, clean energy, AI, IoT, automation and emerging space economy themes, most of the large-cap stocks are ahead of themselves. The valuations of the S&amp;P 500 reflect that.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我喜欢整个技术驱动的创新、清洁能源、人工智能、物联网、自动化和新兴太空经济主题，但大多数大盘股都走在了前面。标普500的估值反映了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> While I have a hard time believing a reversion to mean would drive stocks back to fair valuation by historical standards due to interest rates likely to stay lower for longer, the simple withdrawal of QE - quantitative easing could see stocks drop 20% to 30% across large-cap indexes. Certain Meme categories and Zombie stocks could be worse.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我很难相信回归均值会推动股市按历史标准回归公平估值，因为利率可能会在更长时间内保持在较低水平，但简单地退出量化宽松政策可能会导致股市下跌 20% 至 30% 大盘股指数。某些模因类别和僵尸股票可能会更糟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical View Of The S&amp;P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500的技术观点</b></blockquote></p><p> This is a monthly (SPY) chart. What jumps out at you?</p><p><blockquote>这是一张月度（SPDR标普500指数ETF）图表。你有什么想法？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45d1a060559c8a7991499236ab7ee5b8\" tg-width=\"1834\" tg-height=\"861\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> How about now?</p><p><blockquote>现在怎么样？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e7a38531178fc1ee1e321842c8c80ca\" tg-width=\"1834\" tg-height=\"861\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/570890645cf8cc7eed30a3affaea8241\" tg-width=\"1834\" tg-height=\"861\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> A correction is inevitable. You are playing with fire if you are chasing here.</p><p><blockquote>修正是不可避免的。如果你在这里追逐，你是在玩火。</blockquote></p><p> But, if you like it hot, there might be a bit more cigar to puff on before your lips get burned.</p><p><blockquote>但是，如果你喜欢热的，在你的嘴唇被烧伤之前，可能还有更多的雪茄可以吸。</blockquote></p><p> Shooter’s daily chart shows that a correction hasn’t started yet, but there's very little room left on the upside. Again, tough to be a chaser here unless you're very adept at swing trading, especially moves measured in under a month.</p><p><blockquote>Shooter 的日线图显示，回调尚未开始，但上涨空间已经所剩无几。同样，除非你非常擅长波段交易，尤其是不到一个月的走势，否则很难成为这里的追逐者。</blockquote></p><p> Shooter and I are both showing an S&amp;P 500 correction to between about 350 and as low as around 300. A lot will depend on the size and speed of the Fed taper.</p><p><blockquote>Shooter和我都显示标普500修正在350到300左右之间。很大程度上取决于美联储缩减规模的规模和速度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What About The Fed?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa0280b46d20716904484e370a3d8e0\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> There's no denying the correlation of Fed balance sheet expansion and its impact on the stock market. When the Fed flattened the balance sheet in 2014 the stock market went choppy for two years.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，美联储资产负债表扩张与其对股市的影响之间存在相关性。当美联储在2014年放平资产负债表时，股市波动了两年。</blockquote></p><p> That was followed by cheap oil which pushed stocks up. But then, the Fed started to shrink their balance sheet outright and we got the two massive bouts of volatility in 2018. By September 2019 the repo market was collapsing and QE was restarted which again pushed stocks up.</p><p><blockquote>随后便宜的油价推高了股票。但随后，美联储开始彻底缩减资产负债表，我们在 2018 年经历了两次大规模波动。到2019年9月，回购市场崩溃，量化宽松重启，这再次推高了股市。</blockquote></p><p> Then COVID-19 hit causing one of the largest economic shocks in history. The Fed's response was massive bailouts that exceededthe economic damage. That explosive shock and awe response has carried the stock market since.</p><p><blockquote>然后新冠肺炎袭击造成了历史上最大的经济冲击之一。美联储的回应是大规模救助，超过了经济损失。这种爆炸性的冲击和敬畏反应一直支撑着股市。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has now moved from talking about tapering to talking about when to taper. The consensus is to start flattening the expansion soon. At the same time, we are at historic valuations and overbought on long-term charts. What could go wrong?</p><p><blockquote>美联储现在已经从谈论缩减规模转向谈论何时缩减规模。共识是很快开始压平扩张。与此同时，我们处于历史估值，并且在长期图表上超买。会出什么问题？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Interestingly, for the first time in a long time, margin debt ebbed a bit.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，很长一段时间以来，保证金债务首次有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> That little tick near the bottom of the red line could just be a blip. Or it could be a sign of alligator jaws starting to close. There have been signs of reduced liquidity in recent weeks as indicated by the firming dollar. If the dollar rises to around $96 as I think is likely later this year or early next year, then stocks have a major headwind.</p><p><blockquote>红线底部附近的那个小滴答可能只是一个信号。或者这可能是鳄鱼下巴开始闭合的迹象。最近几周有流动性减少的迹象，美元走强就表明了这一点。如果美元升至 96 美元左右（我认为可能会在今年晚些时候或明年初），那么股市将面临重大阻力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aa7bfa757b16de395877355efd9d751\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Actions Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>立即采取投资行动</b></blockquote></p><p> Very simply, raise cash levels to the conservative edge of your asset allocation plan. If you are retired and conservative by nature, raising cash to 50% by trimming your weakest positions most is a great idea.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，将现金水平提高到你的资产配置计划的保守边缘。如果你是退休的，天生保守，通过削减你最薄弱的头寸来将现金提高到50%是一个好主意。</blockquote></p><p> If you're more aggressive, then ramping up to a war chest of 20% cash makes a lot of sense by trimming your least attractive long-term holdings and weakest performers the past year. Often performance is a simple way to identify the weaklings in a portfolio, though clearly, it's not always that easy.</p><p><blockquote>如果你更激进，那么通过削减你最没有吸引力的长期持股和过去一年表现最差的股票，将现金增加到 20% 是非常有意义的。通常，绩效是识别投资组合中弱点的简单方法，尽管显然，这并不总是那么容易。</blockquote></p><p> In short, tighten up your asset allocation. Risk management first.</p><p><blockquote>总之，收紧你的资产配置。风险管理第一。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Correction Is Due And It Could Be Deep<blockquote>修正是到期的，而且可能是深刻的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Correction Is Due And It Could Be Deep<blockquote>修正是到期的，而且可能是深刻的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 22:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The stock market is historically overvalued.</li>  <li>The stock market is overbought on long-term charts.</li>  <li>Large caps stocks can easily correct 20%-30%, certain Meme and Zombie stocks could be much worse.</li>  <li>The Fed, as always, will play a pivotal role in how deep of a decline we see, watch the taper closely.</li>  <li>Raise cash quickly to the high end of your asset allocation policy.</li> </ul> Any look at an investment should start by asking about what the risks are. For context, we often look at the broader S&amp;P 500 (SPY) which represents most of the market capitalization in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股市历来被高估。</li><li>从长期图表来看，股市超买。</li><li>大盘股可以轻松修正 20%-30%，某些模因和僵尸股可能会更糟。</li><li>美联储将一如既往地在我们看到的下滑深度方面发挥关键作用，请密切关注缩减规模。</li><li>快速筹集现金到你的资产配置政策的高端。</li></ul>任何对投资的看法都应该从询问风险是什么开始。对于背景，我们经常关注更广泛的标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF），它代表了美国大部分市值。</blockquote></p><p> Last year I warned that the stock market could become very overvalued. I urged caution in picking out stocks and ETFs. I also recommended Tesla (TSLA), Bitcoin (BTC-USD), the Invesco Clean Energy ETF (PBW) and the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), so I am no uber-bear.</p><p><blockquote>去年我警告说，股市可能会被严重高估。我敦促在挑选股票和 ETF 时要谨慎。我还推荐了特斯拉 (TSLA)、比特币 (BTC-USD)、景顺清洁能源 ETF (PBW) 和方舟创新 ETF (ARKK)，所以我不是超级熊。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the stock market is broadly overvalued, including both the Meme stocks and the Zombie stocks. Investor ideas on TINA - there's no alternative, FOMO - fear of missing out, and \"buy the dips\" has worked for over a year on the back of Fed stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>如今，股市普遍被高估，包括模因股和僵尸股。投资者对蒂娜的看法——别无选择，FOMO——害怕错过，在美联储刺激措施的支持下，“逢低买入”已经奏效了一年多。</blockquote></p><p> Now that stimulus is poised to start being reduced we can look back at history. We have been to this game before. Expect a choppy stock market to emerge imminently, if it hasn't already.</p><p><blockquote>既然刺激准备开始减少，我们可以回顾历史。我们以前来过这个游戏。预计动荡的股市即将出现（如果还没有的话）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>S&amp;P 500 Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500估值</b></blockquote></p><p> I have talked about excessive valuations in the stock market since around New Year’s. Here's about where we stand now.</p><p><blockquote>从新年前后开始，我就一直在谈论股市估值过高的问题。这就是我们现在的处境。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f383143c5f4b2cf897f5a32c3dffb282\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"660\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> I pay special attention to Crestmont which I believe has an exceptional methodology. Here’s a combined look.</p><p><blockquote>我特别关注Crestmont，我相信它有一个特殊的方法。这是一个组合外观。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba63b9e6f3bb97de066c43c7580a7d0\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"660\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Clearly, valuations are partying like 1999. This includes the zombies that are on borrowed (literally) time. The questions are how long the party can last and which companies will crash the hardest?</p><p><blockquote>显然，估值就像 1999 年一样狂欢。这包括借来的（字面意思）时间的僵尸。问题是聚会能持续多久，哪些公司会崩溃最严重？</blockquote></p><p> While I like the entire tech-driven innovation, clean energy, AI, IoT, automation and emerging space economy themes, most of the large-cap stocks are ahead of themselves. The valuations of the S&amp;P 500 reflect that.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我喜欢整个技术驱动的创新、清洁能源、人工智能、物联网、自动化和新兴太空经济主题，但大多数大盘股都走在了前面。标普500的估值反映了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> While I have a hard time believing a reversion to mean would drive stocks back to fair valuation by historical standards due to interest rates likely to stay lower for longer, the simple withdrawal of QE - quantitative easing could see stocks drop 20% to 30% across large-cap indexes. Certain Meme categories and Zombie stocks could be worse.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我很难相信回归均值会推动股市按历史标准回归公平估值，因为利率可能会在更长时间内保持在较低水平，但简单地退出量化宽松政策可能会导致股市下跌 20% 至 30% 大盘股指数。某些模因类别和僵尸股票可能会更糟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical View Of The S&amp;P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500的技术观点</b></blockquote></p><p> This is a monthly (SPY) chart. What jumps out at you?</p><p><blockquote>这是一张月度（SPDR标普500指数ETF）图表。你有什么想法？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45d1a060559c8a7991499236ab7ee5b8\" tg-width=\"1834\" tg-height=\"861\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> How about now?</p><p><blockquote>现在怎么样？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e7a38531178fc1ee1e321842c8c80ca\" tg-width=\"1834\" tg-height=\"861\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/570890645cf8cc7eed30a3affaea8241\" tg-width=\"1834\" tg-height=\"861\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> A correction is inevitable. You are playing with fire if you are chasing here.</p><p><blockquote>修正是不可避免的。如果你在这里追逐，你是在玩火。</blockquote></p><p> But, if you like it hot, there might be a bit more cigar to puff on before your lips get burned.</p><p><blockquote>但是，如果你喜欢热的，在你的嘴唇被烧伤之前，可能还有更多的雪茄可以吸。</blockquote></p><p> Shooter’s daily chart shows that a correction hasn’t started yet, but there's very little room left on the upside. Again, tough to be a chaser here unless you're very adept at swing trading, especially moves measured in under a month.</p><p><blockquote>Shooter 的日线图显示，回调尚未开始，但上涨空间已经所剩无几。同样，除非你非常擅长波段交易，尤其是不到一个月的走势，否则很难成为这里的追逐者。</blockquote></p><p> Shooter and I are both showing an S&amp;P 500 correction to between about 350 and as low as around 300. A lot will depend on the size and speed of the Fed taper.</p><p><blockquote>Shooter和我都显示标普500修正在350到300左右之间。很大程度上取决于美联储缩减规模的规模和速度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What About The Fed?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa0280b46d20716904484e370a3d8e0\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> There's no denying the correlation of Fed balance sheet expansion and its impact on the stock market. When the Fed flattened the balance sheet in 2014 the stock market went choppy for two years.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，美联储资产负债表扩张与其对股市的影响之间存在相关性。当美联储在2014年放平资产负债表时，股市波动了两年。</blockquote></p><p> That was followed by cheap oil which pushed stocks up. But then, the Fed started to shrink their balance sheet outright and we got the two massive bouts of volatility in 2018. By September 2019 the repo market was collapsing and QE was restarted which again pushed stocks up.</p><p><blockquote>随后便宜的油价推高了股票。但随后，美联储开始彻底缩减资产负债表，我们在 2018 年经历了两次大规模波动。到2019年9月，回购市场崩溃，量化宽松重启，这再次推高了股市。</blockquote></p><p> Then COVID-19 hit causing one of the largest economic shocks in history. The Fed's response was massive bailouts that exceededthe economic damage. That explosive shock and awe response has carried the stock market since.</p><p><blockquote>然后新冠肺炎袭击造成了历史上最大的经济冲击之一。美联储的回应是大规模救助，超过了经济损失。这种爆炸性的冲击和敬畏反应一直支撑着股市。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has now moved from talking about tapering to talking about when to taper. The consensus is to start flattening the expansion soon. At the same time, we are at historic valuations and overbought on long-term charts. What could go wrong?</p><p><blockquote>美联储现在已经从谈论缩减规模转向谈论何时缩减规模。共识是很快开始压平扩张。与此同时，我们处于历史估值，并且在长期图表上超买。会出什么问题？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Interestingly, for the first time in a long time, margin debt ebbed a bit.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，很长一段时间以来，保证金债务首次有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> That little tick near the bottom of the red line could just be a blip. Or it could be a sign of alligator jaws starting to close. There have been signs of reduced liquidity in recent weeks as indicated by the firming dollar. If the dollar rises to around $96 as I think is likely later this year or early next year, then stocks have a major headwind.</p><p><blockquote>红线底部附近的那个小滴答可能只是一个信号。或者这可能是鳄鱼下巴开始闭合的迹象。最近几周有流动性减少的迹象，美元走强就表明了这一点。如果美元升至 96 美元左右（我认为可能会在今年晚些时候或明年初），那么股市将面临重大阻力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aa7bfa757b16de395877355efd9d751\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Actions Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>立即采取投资行动</b></blockquote></p><p> Very simply, raise cash levels to the conservative edge of your asset allocation plan. If you are retired and conservative by nature, raising cash to 50% by trimming your weakest positions most is a great idea.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，将现金水平提高到你的资产配置计划的保守边缘。如果你是退休的，天生保守，通过削减你最薄弱的头寸来将现金提高到50%是一个好主意。</blockquote></p><p> If you're more aggressive, then ramping up to a war chest of 20% cash makes a lot of sense by trimming your least attractive long-term holdings and weakest performers the past year. Often performance is a simple way to identify the weaklings in a portfolio, though clearly, it's not always that easy.</p><p><blockquote>如果你更激进，那么通过削减你最没有吸引力的长期持股和过去一年表现最差的股票，将现金增加到 20% 是非常有意义的。通常，绩效是识别投资组合中弱点的简单方法，尽管显然，这并不总是那么容易。</blockquote></p><p> In short, tighten up your asset allocation. Risk management first.</p><p><blockquote>总之，收紧你的资产配置。风险管理第一。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450105-a-correction-is-due-and-it-could-be-deep\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450105-a-correction-is-due-and-it-could-be-deep","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144088215","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe stock market is historically overvalued.\nThe stock market is overbought on long-term charts.\nLarge caps stocks can easily correct 20%-30%, certain Meme and Zombie stocks could be much worse.\nThe Fed, as always, will play a pivotal role in how deep of a decline we see, watch the taper closely.\nRaise cash quickly to the high end of your asset allocation policy.\n\nAny look at an investment should start by asking about what the risks are. For context, we often look at the broader S&P 500 (SPY) which represents most of the market capitalization in the U.S.\nLast year I warned that the stock market could become very overvalued. I urged caution in picking out stocks and ETFs. I also recommended Tesla (TSLA), Bitcoin (BTC-USD), the Invesco Clean Energy ETF (PBW) and the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), so I am no uber-bear.\nToday, the stock market is broadly overvalued, including both the Meme stocks and the Zombie stocks. Investor ideas on TINA - there's no alternative, FOMO - fear of missing out, and \"buy the dips\" has worked for over a year on the back of Fed stimulus.\nNow that stimulus is poised to start being reduced we can look back at history. We have been to this game before. Expect a choppy stock market to emerge imminently, if it hasn't already.\nS&P 500 Valuation\nI have talked about excessive valuations in the stock market since around New Year’s. Here's about where we stand now.\n\nI pay special attention to Crestmont which I believe has an exceptional methodology. Here’s a combined look.\n\nClearly, valuations are partying like 1999. This includes the zombies that are on borrowed (literally) time. The questions are how long the party can last and which companies will crash the hardest?\nWhile I like the entire tech-driven innovation, clean energy, AI, IoT, automation and emerging space economy themes, most of the large-cap stocks are ahead of themselves. The valuations of the S&P 500 reflect that.\nWhile I have a hard time believing a reversion to mean would drive stocks back to fair valuation by historical standards due to interest rates likely to stay lower for longer, the simple withdrawal of QE - quantitative easing could see stocks drop 20% to 30% across large-cap indexes. Certain Meme categories and Zombie stocks could be worse.\nThe Technical View Of The S&P 500\nThis is a monthly (SPY) chart. What jumps out at you?\n\nHow about now?\n\nA correction is inevitable. You are playing with fire if you are chasing here.\nBut, if you like it hot, there might be a bit more cigar to puff on before your lips get burned.\nShooter’s daily chart shows that a correction hasn’t started yet, but there's very little room left on the upside. Again, tough to be a chaser here unless you're very adept at swing trading, especially moves measured in under a month.\nShooter and I are both showing an S&P 500 correction to between about 350 and as low as around 300. A lot will depend on the size and speed of the Fed taper.\nWhat About The Fed?\n\nThere's no denying the correlation of Fed balance sheet expansion and its impact on the stock market. When the Fed flattened the balance sheet in 2014 the stock market went choppy for two years.\nThat was followed by cheap oil which pushed stocks up. But then, the Fed started to shrink their balance sheet outright and we got the two massive bouts of volatility in 2018. By September 2019 the repo market was collapsing and QE was restarted which again pushed stocks up.\nThen COVID-19 hit causing one of the largest economic shocks in history. The Fed's response was massive bailouts that exceededthe economic damage. That explosive shock and awe response has carried the stock market since.\nThe Fed has now moved from talking about tapering to talking about when to taper. The consensus is to start flattening the expansion soon. At the same time, we are at historic valuations and overbought on long-term charts. What could go wrong?\nInterestingly, for the first time in a long time, margin debt ebbed a bit.\nThat little tick near the bottom of the red line could just be a blip. Or it could be a sign of alligator jaws starting to close. There have been signs of reduced liquidity in recent weeks as indicated by the firming dollar. If the dollar rises to around $96 as I think is likely later this year or early next year, then stocks have a major headwind.\n\nInvestment Actions Now\nVery simply, raise cash levels to the conservative edge of your asset allocation plan. If you are retired and conservative by nature, raising cash to 50% by trimming your weakest positions most is a great idea.\nIf you're more aggressive, then ramping up to a war chest of 20% cash makes a lot of sense by trimming your least attractive long-term holdings and weakest performers the past year. Often performance is a simple way to identify the weaklings in a portfolio, though clearly, it's not always that easy.\nIn short, tighten up your asset allocation. Risk management first.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831172786,"gmtCreate":1629297271145,"gmtModify":1631890005442,"author":{"id":"3571636386843724","authorId":"3571636386843724","name":"yizong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3520301445bdba3e3e6d42a61717e6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571636386843724","idStr":"3571636386843724"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831172786","repostId":"1171001359","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802513456,"gmtCreate":1627787469875,"gmtModify":1631890005452,"author":{"id":"3571636386843724","authorId":"3571636386843724","name":"yizong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3520301445bdba3e3e6d42a61717e6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571636386843724","idStr":"3571636386843724"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"oh no","listText":"oh no","text":"oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802513456","repostId":"1142925544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"<p>“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.</p><p><blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote></p><p> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.</p><p><blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，8 月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote></p><p> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote></p><p> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.</p><p><blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote></p><p> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”</p><p><blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.</p><p><blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.</p><p><blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，那么如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.</p><p><blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote></p><p> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”</p><p><blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote></p><p> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.</p><p><blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote></p><p> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote></p><p> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)</p><p><blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-01 11:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.</p><p><blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote></p><p> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.</p><p><blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，8 月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote></p><p> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote></p><p> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.</p><p><blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote></p><p> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”</p><p><blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.</p><p><blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.</p><p><blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，那么如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.</p><p><blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote></p><p> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”</p><p><blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote></p><p> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.</p><p><blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote></p><p> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote></p><p> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)</p><p><blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125740320,"gmtCreate":1624698767660,"gmtModify":1631890005462,"author":{"id":"3571636386843724","authorId":"3571636386843724","name":"yizong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3520301445bdba3e3e6d42a61717e6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571636386843724","idStr":"3571636386843724"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"oh no&nbsp;","listText":"oh no&nbsp;","text":"oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125740320","repostId":"2146047005","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2146047005","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1624682474,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2146047005?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-26 12:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"UPDATE 1-Tesla 'recalls' vehicles in China for online software update<blockquote>更新 1-特斯拉在华“召回”车辆进行在线软件更新</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2146047005","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Adds details)   BEIJING, June 26 (Reuters) - Chinese regulators said on Saturday Tesla Inc    would","content":"<p><html><body>(Adds details)</p><p><blockquote><html><body>（添加详细信息）</body></html></blockquote></p><p>   BEIJING, June 26 (Reuters) - Chinese regulators said on Saturday Tesla Inc    would 'recall' nearly 300,000 China-made and imported Model 3 and Model Y cars for an online software update related to assisted driving, with owners not required to return their vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>路透北京6月26日 - 中国监管机构周六表示，特斯拉将“召回”近30万辆中国制造和进口的Model 3和Model Y汽车，以进行与辅助驾驶相关的在线软件更新，车主无需归还车辆。</blockquote></p><p>   The State Administration for Market Regulation said on its website that the move is linked to an assisted driving function in the electric cars, which can currently be activated by drivers accidentally, causing sudden acceleration.</p><p><blockquote>国家市场监督管理总局在其网站上表示，此举与电动汽车的辅助驾驶功能有关，目前驾驶员可能会意外激活该功能，导致突然加速。</blockquote></p><p>   The remote online software 'recall' - a first for Tesla cars built in China - covers 249,855 China-made Model 3 and Model Y cars, and 35,665 imported Model 3 sedans.</p><p><blockquote>远程在线软件“召回”是中国制造的特斯拉汽车的首创，涵盖249,855辆中国制造的Model 3和Model Y汽车，以及35,665辆进口Model 3轿车。</blockquote></p><p>   Tesla, now making Model 3 sedans and Model Y sport-utility vehicles in Shanghai, sold 33,463 China-made electric cars in May, according to industry data.  </p><p><blockquote>行业数据显示，目前在上海生产 Model 3 轿车和 Model Y 运动型多功能车的特斯拉 5 月份售出了 33,463 辆中国制造的电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> (Reporting by Yilei Sun and Tony Munroe; Editing by William Mallard and Kenneth Maxwell)</p><p><blockquote>（孙怡蕾和托尼·门罗报道；威廉·马拉德和肯尼斯·麦克斯韦编辑）</blockquote></p><p>((Y.Sun@thomsonreuters.com; +86 10 66271262; Reuters Messaging: y.sun.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))</p><p><blockquote>（（y.sun@thomsonreuters.com；+86 10 66271262；路透社消息：y.sun.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net））</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UPDATE 1-Tesla 'recalls' vehicles in China for online software update<blockquote>更新 1-特斯拉在华“召回”车辆进行在线软件更新</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUPDATE 1-Tesla 'recalls' vehicles in China for online software update<blockquote>更新 1-特斯拉在华“召回”车辆进行在线软件更新</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-26 12:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>(Adds details)</p><p><blockquote><html><body>（添加详细信息）</body></html></blockquote></p><p>   BEIJING, June 26 (Reuters) - Chinese regulators said on Saturday Tesla Inc    would 'recall' nearly 300,000 China-made and imported Model 3 and Model Y cars for an online software update related to assisted driving, with owners not required to return their vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>路透北京6月26日 - 中国监管机构周六表示，特斯拉将“召回”近30万辆中国制造和进口的Model 3和Model Y汽车，以进行与辅助驾驶相关的在线软件更新，车主无需归还车辆。</blockquote></p><p>   The State Administration for Market Regulation said on its website that the move is linked to an assisted driving function in the electric cars, which can currently be activated by drivers accidentally, causing sudden acceleration.</p><p><blockquote>国家市场监督管理总局在其网站上表示，此举与电动汽车的辅助驾驶功能有关，目前驾驶员可能会意外激活该功能，导致突然加速。</blockquote></p><p>   The remote online software 'recall' - a first for Tesla cars built in China - covers 249,855 China-made Model 3 and Model Y cars, and 35,665 imported Model 3 sedans.</p><p><blockquote>远程在线软件“召回”是中国制造的特斯拉汽车的首创，涵盖249,855辆中国制造的Model 3和Model Y汽车，以及35,665辆进口Model 3轿车。</blockquote></p><p>   Tesla, now making Model 3 sedans and Model Y sport-utility vehicles in Shanghai, sold 33,463 China-made electric cars in May, according to industry data.  </p><p><blockquote>行业数据显示，目前在上海生产 Model 3 轿车和 Model Y 运动型多功能车的特斯拉 5 月份售出了 33,463 辆中国制造的电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> (Reporting by Yilei Sun and Tony Munroe; Editing by William Mallard and Kenneth Maxwell)</p><p><blockquote>（孙怡蕾和托尼·门罗报道；威廉·马拉德和肯尼斯·麦克斯韦编辑）</blockquote></p><p>((Y.Sun@thomsonreuters.com; +86 10 66271262; Reuters Messaging: y.sun.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))</p><p><blockquote>（（y.sun@thomsonreuters.com；+86 10 66271262；路透社消息：y.sun.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net））</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CAAS":"中汽系统","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2146047005","content_text":"(Adds details)   BEIJING, June 26 (Reuters) - Chinese regulators said on Saturday Tesla Inc    would 'recall' nearly 300,000 China-made and imported Model 3 and Model Y cars for an online software update related to assisted driving, with owners not required to return their vehicles.   The State Administration for Market Regulation said on its website that the move is linked to an assisted driving function in the electric cars, which can currently be activated by drivers accidentally, causing sudden acceleration.   The remote online software 'recall' - a first for Tesla cars built in China - covers 249,855 China-made Model 3 and Model Y cars, and 35,665 imported Model 3 sedans.   Tesla, now making Model 3 sedans and Model Y sport-utility vehicles in Shanghai, sold 33,463 China-made electric cars in May, according to industry data.   (Reporting by Yilei Sun and Tony Munroe; Editing by William Mallard and Kenneth Maxwell)((Y.Sun@thomsonreuters.com; +86 10 66271262; Reuters Messaging: y.sun.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"CAAS":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166395027,"gmtCreate":1623990769269,"gmtModify":1631890005482,"author":{"id":"3571636386843724","authorId":"3571636386843724","name":"yizong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3520301445bdba3e3e6d42a61717e6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571636386843724","idStr":"3571636386843724"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166395027","repostId":"1197160756","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1197160756","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623980251,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1197160756?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Big Reason to Dump AMD and Buy NVIDIA<blockquote>抛售 AMD 并购买 NVIDIA 的一大理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197160756","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The graphics specialist enjoys a huge advantage over its smaller rival in an important market.","content":"<p><b>NVIDIA</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:NVDA)&nbsp;has been ruling the roost in the discrete graphics processing unit (GPU) market, despite the best efforts of&nbsp;<b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>(NASDAQ:AMD)&nbsp;to gain share in this highly lucrative space. And NVIDIA is showing no signs of losing its grip over the graphics card market, according to the latest market share numbers provided&nbsp;by Jon Peddie Research.</p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）尽管做出了最大努力，但仍在独立图形处理单元 (GPU) 市场占据主导地位<b>先进微器件</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）将在这个利润丰厚的领域获得份额。根据 Jon Peddie Research 提供的最新市场份额数据，NVIDIA 没有表现出失去对显卡市场控制的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Let's see why that bodes well for NVIDIA, and makes it a better bet than arch-rival AMD.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看为什么这对 NVIDIA 来说是个好兆头，并使其成为比主要竞争对手 AMD 更好的选择。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94007897775e469423cc8a3d1e55440d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NVIDIA stamps its authority on graphics cards once again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>NVIDIA 再次证明其在显卡领域的权威</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA&nbsp;finished 2020 with&nbsp;82% of the discrete graphics card market under its control, while AMD held the rest. The company's impressive momentum has spilled over into 2021, as it occupied 81% of the market in Q1. That was a nice increase&nbsp;over the year-ago period's market share of 75%.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达在2020年结束时控制了82%的独立显卡市场，而AMD占据了其余部分。该公司令人印象深刻的势头已经蔓延到 2021 年，在第一季度占据了 81% 的市场份额。与去年同期 75% 的市场份额相比，这是一个不错的增长。</blockquote></p><p> AMD, on the other hand, lost market share for yet another quarter. The company has been&nbsp;losing ground&nbsp;to NVIDIA since the latter launched the&nbsp;RTX 30 series cards&nbsp;toward the end of 2020. AMD was in resurgent mode prior to the arrival of the RTX 30 series cards -- its Navi GPUs were&nbsp;making a nice dent&nbsp;in NVIDIA's graphics card supremacy a year ago. But that isn't the case anymore.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD 又一个季度失去了市场份额。自英伟达在2020年底推出RTX 30系列显卡以来，该公司一直在输给英伟达。在RTX 30系列卡到来之前，AMD正处于复兴模式——一年前，它的Navi GPU在英伟达的显卡霸主地位上取得了良好的进展。但现在情况已经不同了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NVIDIA stamps its authority on graphics cards once again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>NVIDIA 再次证明其在显卡领域的权威</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIAfinished 2020 with82% of the discrete graphics card market under its control, while AMD held the rest. The company's impressive momentum has spilled over into 2021, as it occupied 81% of the market in Q1. That was a nice increase&nbsp;over the year-ago period's market share of 75%.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达在2020年控制了82%的独立显卡市场，而AMD占据了其余的份额。该公司令人印象深刻的势头已经蔓延到 2021 年，在第一季度占据了 81% 的市场份额。与去年同期 75% 的市场份额相比，这是一个不错的增长。</blockquote></p><p> AMD, on the other hand, lost market share for yet another quarter. The company has been&nbsp;losing ground&nbsp;to NVIDIA since the latter launched theRTX 30 series cardstoward the end of 2020. AMD was in resurgent mode prior to the arrival of the RTX 30 series cards -- its Navi GPUs weremaking a nice dentin NVIDIA's graphics card supremacy a year ago. But that isn't the case anymore.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD 又一个季度失去了市场份额。自英伟达在2020年底推出TX 30系列卡以来，该公司一直在输给英伟达。在 RTX 30 系列显卡问世之前，AMD 正处于复兴模式——其 Navi GPU 正在与一年前 NVIDIA 显卡霸主地位相媲美。但现在情况已经不同了。</blockquote></p><p> Jon Peddie Research estimates that discrete GPU shipments shot up 24.4% year-over-year. The market generated $12.5 billion in revenue in Q1, a 370% spike over the prior-year period, thanks to a&nbsp;jump in the average selling prices&nbsp;(ASPs) triggered by huge demand and short supply. NVIDIA's massive market share means that it has won big from this spike, which is reflected in its Q1 performance.</p><p><blockquote>Jon Peddie Research 估计，独立 GPU 出货量同比增长 24.4%。由于巨大需求和供应短缺导致平均销售价格 (ASP) 飙升，该市场在第一季度创造了 125 亿美元的收入，比去年同期增长了 370%。英伟达巨大的市场份额意味着它从这次飙升中获益匪浅，这反映在其第一季度的业绩中。</blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA's gaming revenue more than doubled&nbsp;year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 to $2.76 billion. AMD's computing and graphics segment, which also includes the sales of its Ryzen desktop and notebook processors, grew at a relatively slower pace of 46% year-over-year to $2.1 billion in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>2022 财年第一季度，英伟达的游戏收入同比增长一倍多，达到 27.6 亿美元。AMD 的计算和图形部门（还包括 Ryzen 台式机和笔记本电脑处理器的销售）在第一季度以相对较慢的速度同比增长 46%，达到 21 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Jon Peddie Research estimates that the discrete GPU market could be worth $54 billion by 2025, compared to $23.6 billion last year. NVIDIA's dominant position should allow it to corner a substantial portion of that pie in the future, especially considering its moves to strengthen its position.</p><p><blockquote>Jon Peddie Research 估计，到 2025 年，独立 GPU 市场价值可能达到 540 亿美元，而去年为 236 亿美元。英伟达的主导地位应该使其能够在未来占据很大一部分份额，特别是考虑到其加强自身地位的举措。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMD's resistance may not be enough</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD的阻力可能还不够</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD has been trying to put up a fight against NVIDIA, and it did show some progress last quarter, registering a quarter-over-quarter market share gain of one percentage point. However, AMD is now looking to raise its game with a new technology, the FidelityFX Super Resolution (FSR). This will compete with NVIDIA's deep learning super sampling (DLSS) image upscaling technology, which helps games look better and run smoother.</p><p><blockquote>AMD一直在试图与英伟达抗衡，上季度确实取得了一些进展，市场份额环比增长了一个百分点。然而，AMD现在正在寻求通过一项新技术FidelityFX超级分辨率（FSR）来提升其游戏。这将与英伟达的深度学习超级采样（DLSS）图像放大技术竞争，该技术有助于游戏看起来更好，运行更流畅。</blockquote></p><p> AMD's internal tests claim that its new tech can help games run at 59% higher frame rates on ultra-quality settings. The chipmaker also claims that FSR could increase gaming performance by 2.5 times in certain titles using the performance setting. In addition, AMD says that FSR supports a wide range of hardware that includes more than 100 processors and graphics cards thanks to its open-source nature.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的内部测试声称，其新技术可以帮助游戏在超高质量设置下以59%的帧速率运行。该芯片制造商还声称，使用性能设置，FSR可以将某些游戏的游戏性能提高2.5倍。此外，AMD表示，由于其开源性质，FSR支持广泛的硬件，包括100多个处理器和显卡。</blockquote></p><p> FSR will launch on June 22, and it could give AMD a nice boost in the GPU market. However, only time will tell if the new technology will translate into sales for AMD, given that its rival's DLSS tech is already in its second&nbsp;generation.</p><p><blockquote>FSR将于6月22日推出，它可能会给AMD在GPU市场带来一个很好的推动。然而，只有时间才能证明这项新技术是否会转化为 AMD 的销售，因为其竞争对手的 DLSS 技术已经进入第二代。</blockquote></p><p> However, it is worth noting that NVIDIA is trying to cover as much of the GPU market as possible with new launches. The company recently released the RTX 3080 Ti and the RTX 3070 Ti GPUs, priced at $1,199 and $599, respectively. NVIDIA is giving users of older graphics cards a solid reason to upgrade with these cards. It claims that the RTX 3080 Ti is twice as fast as the older GTX 1080 Ti, while the RTX 3070 Ti delivers 1.5x the performance of the RTX 2070 Super.</p><p><blockquote>然而，值得注意的是，英伟达正试图通过新的发布来覆盖尽可能多的GPU市场。该公司最近发布了RTX 3080 Ti和RTX 3070 Ti GPU，售价分别为1199美元和599美元。NVIDIA为旧显卡的用户提供了升级这些显卡的充分理由。它声称RTX 3080 Ti的速度是旧的GTX 1080 Ti的两倍，而RTX 3070 Ti的性能是RTX 2070 Super的1.5倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> NVIDIA is also&nbsp;stepping up its game&nbsp;in the laptop market with the launch of entry-level graphics cards. The company now offers more than 140 laptop models powered by the RTX 30 cards across a wide range of prices. This puts NVIDIA in a solid position in the fast-growing gaming laptop market, which is expected to hit $15.6 billion in revenue by 2027, compared to $9 billion in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>随着入门级显卡的推出，英伟达也在加强其在笔记本电脑市场的博弈。该公司现在提供140多种由RTX 30卡驱动的笔记本电脑型号，价格范围广泛。这使得英伟达在快速增长的游戏笔记本电脑市场占据了稳固的地位，预计到2027年，该市场的收入将达到156亿美元，而2019年为90亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this indicates that NVIDIA's gaming business could sustain its terrific levels of growth for a long time to come, especially considering that a huge chunk of gamers have&nbsp;yet to upgrade&nbsp;to its latest cards.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都表明，英伟达的游戏业务可以在未来很长一段时间内保持其惊人的增长水平，特别是考虑到大量游戏玩家尚未升级到其最新显卡。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the growth of AMD's gaming business is nowhere close to NVIDIA's, and the situation is unlikely to change given the latter's supremacy in this space. That's why investors looking to take advantage of the booming market for discrete graphics cards and add a&nbsp;top growth stock&nbsp;to their portfolios should choose NVIDIA. Gaming is its largest source of revenue, and this business could stay red-hot for a long time.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，AMD游戏业务的增长远不及英伟达，鉴于后者在这一领域的霸主地位，这种情况不太可能改变。这就是为什么希望利用独立显卡蓬勃发展的市场并将一只顶级增长股票添加到其投资组合中的投资者应该选择 NVIDIA。游戏是其最大的收入来源，这项业务可能会在很长一段时间内保持火爆。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Big Reason to Dump AMD and Buy NVIDIA<blockquote>抛售 AMD 并购买 NVIDIA 的一大理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Big Reason to Dump AMD and Buy NVIDIA<blockquote>抛售 AMD 并购买 NVIDIA 的一大理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>NVIDIA</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:NVDA)&nbsp;has been ruling the roost in the discrete graphics processing unit (GPU) market, despite the best efforts of&nbsp;<b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>(NASDAQ:AMD)&nbsp;to gain share in this highly lucrative space. And NVIDIA is showing no signs of losing its grip over the graphics card market, according to the latest market share numbers provided&nbsp;by Jon Peddie Research.</p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）尽管做出了最大努力，但仍在独立图形处理单元 (GPU) 市场占据主导地位<b>先进微器件</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）将在这个利润丰厚的领域获得份额。根据 Jon Peddie Research 提供的最新市场份额数据，NVIDIA 没有表现出失去对显卡市场控制的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Let's see why that bodes well for NVIDIA, and makes it a better bet than arch-rival AMD.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看为什么这对 NVIDIA 来说是个好兆头，并使其成为比主要竞争对手 AMD 更好的选择。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94007897775e469423cc8a3d1e55440d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NVIDIA stamps its authority on graphics cards once again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>NVIDIA 再次证明其在显卡领域的权威</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA&nbsp;finished 2020 with&nbsp;82% of the discrete graphics card market under its control, while AMD held the rest. The company's impressive momentum has spilled over into 2021, as it occupied 81% of the market in Q1. That was a nice increase&nbsp;over the year-ago period's market share of 75%.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达在2020年结束时控制了82%的独立显卡市场，而AMD占据了其余部分。该公司令人印象深刻的势头已经蔓延到 2021 年，在第一季度占据了 81% 的市场份额。与去年同期 75% 的市场份额相比，这是一个不错的增长。</blockquote></p><p> AMD, on the other hand, lost market share for yet another quarter. The company has been&nbsp;losing ground&nbsp;to NVIDIA since the latter launched the&nbsp;RTX 30 series cards&nbsp;toward the end of 2020. AMD was in resurgent mode prior to the arrival of the RTX 30 series cards -- its Navi GPUs were&nbsp;making a nice dent&nbsp;in NVIDIA's graphics card supremacy a year ago. But that isn't the case anymore.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD 又一个季度失去了市场份额。自英伟达在2020年底推出RTX 30系列显卡以来，该公司一直在输给英伟达。在RTX 30系列卡到来之前，AMD正处于复兴模式——一年前，它的Navi GPU在英伟达的显卡霸主地位上取得了良好的进展。但现在情况已经不同了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NVIDIA stamps its authority on graphics cards once again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>NVIDIA 再次证明其在显卡领域的权威</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIAfinished 2020 with82% of the discrete graphics card market under its control, while AMD held the rest. The company's impressive momentum has spilled over into 2021, as it occupied 81% of the market in Q1. That was a nice increase&nbsp;over the year-ago period's market share of 75%.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达在2020年控制了82%的独立显卡市场，而AMD占据了其余的份额。该公司令人印象深刻的势头已经蔓延到 2021 年，在第一季度占据了 81% 的市场份额。与去年同期 75% 的市场份额相比，这是一个不错的增长。</blockquote></p><p> AMD, on the other hand, lost market share for yet another quarter. The company has been&nbsp;losing ground&nbsp;to NVIDIA since the latter launched theRTX 30 series cardstoward the end of 2020. AMD was in resurgent mode prior to the arrival of the RTX 30 series cards -- its Navi GPUs weremaking a nice dentin NVIDIA's graphics card supremacy a year ago. But that isn't the case anymore.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD 又一个季度失去了市场份额。自英伟达在2020年底推出TX 30系列卡以来，该公司一直在输给英伟达。在 RTX 30 系列显卡问世之前，AMD 正处于复兴模式——其 Navi GPU 正在与一年前 NVIDIA 显卡霸主地位相媲美。但现在情况已经不同了。</blockquote></p><p> Jon Peddie Research estimates that discrete GPU shipments shot up 24.4% year-over-year. The market generated $12.5 billion in revenue in Q1, a 370% spike over the prior-year period, thanks to a&nbsp;jump in the average selling prices&nbsp;(ASPs) triggered by huge demand and short supply. NVIDIA's massive market share means that it has won big from this spike, which is reflected in its Q1 performance.</p><p><blockquote>Jon Peddie Research 估计，独立 GPU 出货量同比增长 24.4%。由于巨大需求和供应短缺导致平均销售价格 (ASP) 飙升，该市场在第一季度创造了 125 亿美元的收入，比去年同期增长了 370%。英伟达巨大的市场份额意味着它从这次飙升中获益匪浅，这反映在其第一季度的业绩中。</blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA's gaming revenue more than doubled&nbsp;year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 to $2.76 billion. AMD's computing and graphics segment, which also includes the sales of its Ryzen desktop and notebook processors, grew at a relatively slower pace of 46% year-over-year to $2.1 billion in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>2022 财年第一季度，英伟达的游戏收入同比增长一倍多，达到 27.6 亿美元。AMD 的计算和图形部门（还包括 Ryzen 台式机和笔记本电脑处理器的销售）在第一季度以相对较慢的速度同比增长 46%，达到 21 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Jon Peddie Research estimates that the discrete GPU market could be worth $54 billion by 2025, compared to $23.6 billion last year. NVIDIA's dominant position should allow it to corner a substantial portion of that pie in the future, especially considering its moves to strengthen its position.</p><p><blockquote>Jon Peddie Research 估计，到 2025 年，独立 GPU 市场价值可能达到 540 亿美元，而去年为 236 亿美元。英伟达的主导地位应该使其能够在未来占据很大一部分份额，特别是考虑到其加强自身地位的举措。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMD's resistance may not be enough</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD的阻力可能还不够</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD has been trying to put up a fight against NVIDIA, and it did show some progress last quarter, registering a quarter-over-quarter market share gain of one percentage point. However, AMD is now looking to raise its game with a new technology, the FidelityFX Super Resolution (FSR). This will compete with NVIDIA's deep learning super sampling (DLSS) image upscaling technology, which helps games look better and run smoother.</p><p><blockquote>AMD一直在试图与英伟达抗衡，上季度确实取得了一些进展，市场份额环比增长了一个百分点。然而，AMD现在正在寻求通过一项新技术FidelityFX超级分辨率（FSR）来提升其游戏。这将与英伟达的深度学习超级采样（DLSS）图像放大技术竞争，该技术有助于游戏看起来更好，运行更流畅。</blockquote></p><p> AMD's internal tests claim that its new tech can help games run at 59% higher frame rates on ultra-quality settings. The chipmaker also claims that FSR could increase gaming performance by 2.5 times in certain titles using the performance setting. In addition, AMD says that FSR supports a wide range of hardware that includes more than 100 processors and graphics cards thanks to its open-source nature.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的内部测试声称，其新技术可以帮助游戏在超高质量设置下以59%的帧速率运行。该芯片制造商还声称，使用性能设置，FSR可以将某些游戏的游戏性能提高2.5倍。此外，AMD表示，由于其开源性质，FSR支持广泛的硬件，包括100多个处理器和显卡。</blockquote></p><p> FSR will launch on June 22, and it could give AMD a nice boost in the GPU market. However, only time will tell if the new technology will translate into sales for AMD, given that its rival's DLSS tech is already in its second&nbsp;generation.</p><p><blockquote>FSR将于6月22日推出，它可能会给AMD在GPU市场带来一个很好的推动。然而，只有时间才能证明这项新技术是否会转化为 AMD 的销售，因为其竞争对手的 DLSS 技术已经进入第二代。</blockquote></p><p> However, it is worth noting that NVIDIA is trying to cover as much of the GPU market as possible with new launches. The company recently released the RTX 3080 Ti and the RTX 3070 Ti GPUs, priced at $1,199 and $599, respectively. NVIDIA is giving users of older graphics cards a solid reason to upgrade with these cards. It claims that the RTX 3080 Ti is twice as fast as the older GTX 1080 Ti, while the RTX 3070 Ti delivers 1.5x the performance of the RTX 2070 Super.</p><p><blockquote>然而，值得注意的是，英伟达正试图通过新的发布来覆盖尽可能多的GPU市场。该公司最近发布了RTX 3080 Ti和RTX 3070 Ti GPU，售价分别为1199美元和599美元。NVIDIA为旧显卡的用户提供了升级这些显卡的充分理由。它声称RTX 3080 Ti的速度是旧的GTX 1080 Ti的两倍，而RTX 3070 Ti的性能是RTX 2070 Super的1.5倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> NVIDIA is also&nbsp;stepping up its game&nbsp;in the laptop market with the launch of entry-level graphics cards. The company now offers more than 140 laptop models powered by the RTX 30 cards across a wide range of prices. This puts NVIDIA in a solid position in the fast-growing gaming laptop market, which is expected to hit $15.6 billion in revenue by 2027, compared to $9 billion in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>随着入门级显卡的推出，英伟达也在加强其在笔记本电脑市场的博弈。该公司现在提供140多种由RTX 30卡驱动的笔记本电脑型号，价格范围广泛。这使得英伟达在快速增长的游戏笔记本电脑市场占据了稳固的地位，预计到2027年，该市场的收入将达到156亿美元，而2019年为90亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this indicates that NVIDIA's gaming business could sustain its terrific levels of growth for a long time to come, especially considering that a huge chunk of gamers have&nbsp;yet to upgrade&nbsp;to its latest cards.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都表明，英伟达的游戏业务可以在未来很长一段时间内保持其惊人的增长水平，特别是考虑到大量游戏玩家尚未升级到其最新显卡。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the growth of AMD's gaming business is nowhere close to NVIDIA's, and the situation is unlikely to change given the latter's supremacy in this space. That's why investors looking to take advantage of the booming market for discrete graphics cards and add a&nbsp;top growth stock&nbsp;to their portfolios should choose NVIDIA. Gaming is its largest source of revenue, and this business could stay red-hot for a long time.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，AMD游戏业务的增长远不及英伟达，鉴于后者在这一领域的霸主地位，这种情况不太可能改变。这就是为什么希望利用独立显卡蓬勃发展的市场并将一只顶级增长股票添加到其投资组合中的投资者应该选择 NVIDIA。游戏是其最大的收入来源，这项业务可能会在很长一段时间内保持火爆。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-big-reason-to-dump-amd-and-buy-nvidia/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-big-reason-to-dump-amd-and-buy-nvidia/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197160756","content_text":"NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been ruling the roost in the discrete graphics processing unit (GPU) market, despite the best efforts of Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD) to gain share in this highly lucrative space. And NVIDIA is showing no signs of losing its grip over the graphics card market, according to the latest market share numbers provided by Jon Peddie Research.\nLet's see why that bodes well for NVIDIA, and makes it a better bet than arch-rival AMD.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES\nNVIDIA stamps its authority on graphics cards once again\nNVIDIA finished 2020 with 82% of the discrete graphics card market under its control, while AMD held the rest. The company's impressive momentum has spilled over into 2021, as it occupied 81% of the market in Q1. That was a nice increase over the year-ago period's market share of 75%.\nAMD, on the other hand, lost market share for yet another quarter. The company has been losing ground to NVIDIA since the latter launched the RTX 30 series cards toward the end of 2020. AMD was in resurgent mode prior to the arrival of the RTX 30 series cards -- its Navi GPUs were making a nice dent in NVIDIA's graphics card supremacy a year ago. But that isn't the case anymore.\nNVIDIA stamps its authority on graphics cards once again\nNVIDIAfinished 2020 with82% of the discrete graphics card market under its control, while AMD held the rest. The company's impressive momentum has spilled over into 2021, as it occupied 81% of the market in Q1. That was a nice increase over the year-ago period's market share of 75%.\nAMD, on the other hand, lost market share for yet another quarter. The company has been losing ground to NVIDIA since the latter launched theRTX 30 series cardstoward the end of 2020. AMD was in resurgent mode prior to the arrival of the RTX 30 series cards -- its Navi GPUs weremaking a nice dentin NVIDIA's graphics card supremacy a year ago. But that isn't the case anymore.\nJon Peddie Research estimates that discrete GPU shipments shot up 24.4% year-over-year. The market generated $12.5 billion in revenue in Q1, a 370% spike over the prior-year period, thanks to a jump in the average selling prices (ASPs) triggered by huge demand and short supply. NVIDIA's massive market share means that it has won big from this spike, which is reflected in its Q1 performance.\nNVIDIA's gaming revenue more than doubled year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 to $2.76 billion. AMD's computing and graphics segment, which also includes the sales of its Ryzen desktop and notebook processors, grew at a relatively slower pace of 46% year-over-year to $2.1 billion in Q1.\nJon Peddie Research estimates that the discrete GPU market could be worth $54 billion by 2025, compared to $23.6 billion last year. NVIDIA's dominant position should allow it to corner a substantial portion of that pie in the future, especially considering its moves to strengthen its position.\nAMD's resistance may not be enough\nAMD has been trying to put up a fight against NVIDIA, and it did show some progress last quarter, registering a quarter-over-quarter market share gain of one percentage point. However, AMD is now looking to raise its game with a new technology, the FidelityFX Super Resolution (FSR). This will compete with NVIDIA's deep learning super sampling (DLSS) image upscaling technology, which helps games look better and run smoother.\nAMD's internal tests claim that its new tech can help games run at 59% higher frame rates on ultra-quality settings. The chipmaker also claims that FSR could increase gaming performance by 2.5 times in certain titles using the performance setting. In addition, AMD says that FSR supports a wide range of hardware that includes more than 100 processors and graphics cards thanks to its open-source nature.\nFSR will launch on June 22, and it could give AMD a nice boost in the GPU market. However, only time will tell if the new technology will translate into sales for AMD, given that its rival's DLSS tech is already in its second generation.\nHowever, it is worth noting that NVIDIA is trying to cover as much of the GPU market as possible with new launches. The company recently released the RTX 3080 Ti and the RTX 3070 Ti GPUs, priced at $1,199 and $599, respectively. NVIDIA is giving users of older graphics cards a solid reason to upgrade with these cards. It claims that the RTX 3080 Ti is twice as fast as the older GTX 1080 Ti, while the RTX 3070 Ti delivers 1.5x the performance of the RTX 2070 Super.\nNVIDIA is also stepping up its game in the laptop market with the launch of entry-level graphics cards. The company now offers more than 140 laptop models powered by the RTX 30 cards across a wide range of prices. This puts NVIDIA in a solid position in the fast-growing gaming laptop market, which is expected to hit $15.6 billion in revenue by 2027, compared to $9 billion in 2019.\nAll of this indicates that NVIDIA's gaming business could sustain its terrific levels of growth for a long time to come, especially considering that a huge chunk of gamers have yet to upgrade to its latest cards.\nMeanwhile, the growth of AMD's gaming business is nowhere close to NVIDIA's, and the situation is unlikely to change given the latter's supremacy in this space. That's why investors looking to take advantage of the booming market for discrete graphics cards and add a top growth stock to their portfolios should choose NVIDIA. Gaming is its largest source of revenue, and this business could stay red-hot for a long time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9,"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}