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2021-11-20

Inflation has ‘further to go:’ Goldman Sachs<blockquote>通货膨胀 “还有很长的路要走”：高盛</blockquote>

Inflation remains a cause for concern as data continues to butt heads with the White House and the F

Inflation has ‘further to go:’ Goldman Sachs<blockquote>通货膨胀 “还有很长的路要走”：高盛</blockquote>

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Goldman Sachs Economic Research also expects inflationary pressures from wage and rent growth, but this will only keep inflation “moderately above 2%,” in line with the Fed’s updated framework target.<blockquote>报告认为，这种通胀过度增长在很大程度上归因于持续的供应链紧缩导致耐用品价格上涨。高盛经济研究公司（Goldman Sachs Economic Research）也预计工资和租金增长会带来通胀压力，但这只会使通胀率 “略高于 2%”，与美联储更新后的框架目标一致。</blockquote> “The current inflation surge will get worse this winter before it gets better, but as supply-constrained categories shift from a transitory inflationary boost to a transitory deflationary drag, we expect core PCE inflation to fall from 4.4% at end-2021 to 2.3% at end-2022,” the report reads.<blockquote>“报告写道：”目前的通胀飙升在今年冬天会变得更糟，然后才会好转，但随着供应约束类别从暂时的通胀提振转向暂时的通缩拖累，我们预计核心个人消费支出通胀率将从2021年底的4.4%降至2022年底的2.3%。</blockquote> Goldman also expects the economy to reaccelerate to above a 4% growth rate throughout the next several quarters, citing the reopening of the service sector, consumer spending of pent-up savings, and inventory restocking.<blockquote>高盛还预计，未来几个季度经济增长率将重新加速至 4% 以上，理由是服务业重新开放、消费者支出被压抑的储蓄以及库存补充。</blockquote> “These forces will contend with a large and steady headwind from diminishing fiscal support that we expect will ultimately leave GDP growth near potential by late 2022,” the report reads.<blockquote>“报告写道：”这些力量将与财政支持减少带来的巨大而稳定的阻力作斗争，我们预计这最终将使 GDP 增长在 2022 年底接近潜力。</blockquote> Tapering timeline<blockquote>渐缩时间表</blockquote> One of the major implications of these inflation expectations is anupdated timelinefor the Fed’s first rate hikes. The report states that Goldman Sachs would be pulling forward its forecast of the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike to July 2022, shortly after tapering ends.<blockquote>这些通胀预期的主要影响之一是美联储首次加息的最新时间表。报告指出，高盛将把美联储首次加息时间的预测提前至2022年7月，即缩减加息规模结束后不久。</blockquote> The FOMC is currently scheduled tocompletethe tapering process by mid-June of 2022. Policymakers will meet next in mid-December where they will submit updated economic forecasts and expected policy paths. In September, around half of policymakers believed that a rate hike would not be necessary until 2023.<blockquote>FOMC 目前计划在 2022 年 6 月中旬之前完成缩减规模进程。政策制定者将于 12 月中旬举行下一次会议，届时他们将提交最新的经济预测和预期的政策路径。9月份，约一半的政策制定者认为，在2023年之前没有必要加息。</blockquote> “Inflation will have run far above target for a while by then, and we think a seamless move from tapering to rate hikes will be the path of least resistance, with a first hike in July and a second in November,” the report reads. “Because we expect growth and inflation to settle down by year-end without a need for aggressive monetary policy tightening, we have penciled in a slower pace of two hikes per year thereafter.”<blockquote>“报告写道：”届时，通胀率将在一段时间内远高于目标，我们认为，从缩减加息到加息的无缝转变将是阻力最小的途径，第一次加息将在 7 月进行，第二次加息将在 11 月进行。“由于我们预计经济增长和通胀将在年底前稳定下来，无需大幅收紧货币政策，因此我们预计此后每年加息两次，速度较慢。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation has ‘further to go:’ Goldman Sachs<blockquote>通货膨胀 “还有很长的路要走”： 高盛</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation has ‘further to go:’ Goldman Sachs<blockquote>通货膨胀 “还有很长的路要走”： 高盛</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nYahoo2021-11-19 23:12\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInflation&nbsp;remains a cause for concern as data continues to butt heads with the White House and the Fed’s claim that the price hikes will be “transitory.” According to a Nov. 13 report released by Goldman Sachs Economic Research (GS) however, though inflation has already reached a 30-year high, it may still have more to run.<blockquote>通货膨胀仍然令人担忧，因为数据继续与白宫和美联储声称物价上涨将是 “暂时性 ”的说法相悖。然而，根据高盛经济研究公司（GS）11月13日发布的一份报告，尽管通胀已经达到30年来的高点，但可能还有更多的空间。</blockquote> “The US economy largely followed the rapid road to recovery that we expected this year and is on track to round out the recovery next year as most of the remaining effects of the pandemic fade,” the report reads. “But this year also brought a major surprise: a surge in inflation that has already reached a 30-year high and still has further to go.”<blockquote>“报告写道：”美国经济在很大程度上遵循了我们今年预期的快速复苏之路，随着大流行病的大部分残余影响消退，明年有望完成复苏。“但今年也带来了一个重大意外：通货膨胀率飙升，已经达到了 30 年来的最高点，而且还有很长的路要走”。</blockquote> The report suggests that this overshoot in inflation is largely attributable to the rise in durable goods prices caused by the persistentsupply chain crunch. Goldman Sachs Economic Research also expects inflationary pressures from wage and rent growth, but this will only keep inflation “moderately above 2%,” in line with the Fed’s updated framework target.<blockquote>报告认为，这种通胀过度增长在很大程度上归因于持续的供应链紧缩导致耐用品价格上涨。高盛经济研究公司（Goldman Sachs Economic Research）也预计工资和租金增长会带来通胀压力，但这只会使通胀率 “略高于 2%”，与美联储更新后的框架目标一致。</blockquote> “The current inflation surge will get worse this winter before it gets better, but as supply-constrained categories shift from a transitory inflationary boost to a transitory deflationary drag, we expect core PCE inflation to fall from 4.4% at end-2021 to 2.3% at end-2022,” the report reads.<blockquote>“报告写道：”目前的通胀飙升在今年冬天会变得更糟，然后才会好转，但随着供应约束类别从暂时的通胀提振转向暂时的通缩拖累，我们预计核心个人消费支出通胀率将从2021年底的4.4%降至2022年底的2.3%。</blockquote> Goldman also expects the economy to reaccelerate to above a 4% growth rate throughout the next several quarters, citing the reopening of the service sector, consumer spending of pent-up savings, and inventory restocking.<blockquote>高盛还预计，未来几个季度经济增长率将重新加速至 4% 以上，理由是服务业重新开放、消费者支出被压抑的储蓄以及库存补充。</blockquote> “These forces will contend with a large and steady headwind from diminishing fiscal support that we expect will ultimately leave GDP growth near potential by late 2022,” the report reads.<blockquote>“报告写道：”这些力量将与财政支持减少带来的巨大而稳定的阻力作斗争，我们预计这最终将使 GDP 增长在 2022 年底接近潜力。</blockquote> Tapering timeline<blockquote>渐缩时间表</blockquote> One of the major implications of these inflation expectations is anupdated timelinefor the Fed’s first rate hikes. The report states that Goldman Sachs would be pulling forward its forecast of the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike to July 2022, shortly after tapering ends.<blockquote>这些通胀预期的主要影响之一是美联储首次加息的最新时间表。报告指出，高盛将把美联储首次加息时间的预测提前至2022年7月，即缩减加息规模结束后不久。</blockquote> The FOMC is currently scheduled tocompletethe tapering process by mid-June of 2022. Policymakers will meet next in mid-December where they will submit updated economic forecasts and expected policy paths. In September, around half of policymakers believed that a rate hike would not be necessary until 2023.<blockquote>FOMC 目前计划在 2022 年 6 月中旬之前完成缩减规模进程。政策制定者将于 12 月中旬举行下一次会议，届时他们将提交最新的经济预测和预期的政策路径。9月份，约一半的政策制定者认为，在2023年之前没有必要加息。</blockquote> “Inflation will have run far above target for a while by then, and we think a seamless move from tapering to rate hikes will be the path of least resistance, with a first hike in July and a second in November,” the report reads. “Because we expect growth and inflation to settle down by year-end without a need for aggressive monetary policy tightening, we have penciled in a slower pace of two hikes per year thereafter.”<blockquote>“报告写道：”届时，通胀率将在一段时间内远高于目标，我们认为，从缩减加息到加息的无缝转变将是阻力最小的途径，第一次加息将在 7 月进行，第二次加息将在 11 月进行。“由于我们预计经济增长和通胀将在年底前稳定下来，无需大幅收紧货币政策，因此我们预计此后每年加息两次，速度较慢。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-at-30-year-high-has-further-to-go-goldman-sachs-150441968.html\">Yahoo</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-at-30-year-high-has-further-to-go-goldman-sachs-150441968.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112678123","content_text":"Inflation remains a cause for concern as data continues to butt heads with the White House and the Fed’s claim that the price hikes will be “transitory.” According to a Nov. 13 report released by Goldman Sachs Economic Research (GS) however, though inflation has already reached a 30-year high, it may still have more to run.\n“The US economy largely followed the rapid road to recovery that we expected this year and is on track to round out the recovery next year as most of the remaining effects of the pandemic fade,” the report reads. “But this year also brought a major surprise: a surge in inflation that has already reached a 30-year high and still has further to go.”\nThe report suggests that this overshoot in inflation is largely attributable to the rise in durable goods prices caused by the persistentsupply chain crunch. Goldman Sachs Economic Research also expects inflationary pressures from wage and rent growth, but this will only keep inflation “moderately above 2%,” in line with the Fed’s updated framework target.\n“The current inflation surge will get worse this winter before it gets better, but as supply-constrained categories shift from a transitory inflationary boost to a transitory deflationary drag, we expect core PCE inflation to fall from 4.4% at end-2021 to 2.3% at end-2022,” the report reads.\nGoldman also expects the economy to reaccelerate to above a 4% growth rate throughout the next several quarters, citing the reopening of the service sector, consumer spending of pent-up savings, and inventory restocking.\n“These forces will contend with a large and steady headwind from diminishing fiscal support that we expect will ultimately leave GDP growth near potential by late 2022,” the report reads.\nTapering timeline\nOne of the major implications of these inflation expectations is anupdated timelinefor the Fed’s first rate hikes. The report states that Goldman Sachs would be pulling forward its forecast of the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike to July 2022, shortly after tapering ends.\nThe FOMC is currently scheduled tocompletethe tapering process by mid-June of 2022. Policymakers will meet next in mid-December where they will submit updated economic forecasts and expected policy paths. In September, around half of policymakers believed that a rate hike would not be necessary until 2023.\n“Inflation will have run far above target for a while by then, and we think a seamless move from tapering to rate hikes will be the path of least resistance, with a first hike in July and a second in November,” the report reads. “Because we expect growth and inflation to settle down by year-end without a need for aggressive monetary policy tightening, we have penciled in a slower pace of two hikes per year thereafter.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3626,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Inflation has ‘further to go:’ Goldman Sachs<blockquote>通货膨胀 “还有很长的路要走”： 高盛</blockquote>

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Inflation has ‘further to go:’ Goldman Sachs<blockquote>通货膨胀 “还有很长的路要走”：高盛</blockquote>