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特斯拉(TSLA)
盘后
431.88
0.47
+0.11%
19:59 EST
431.41
-1.55
-0.36%
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三藏大法师
·
01-07 20:33
英伟达做智驾算法这事儿，对英伟达来说，短期不算利好，长期也不太算利空，更像是做慈善。对特斯拉来说，短期算利空，中期啥也算不上
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
英伟达做智驾算法这事儿，对英伟达来说，短期不算利好，长期也不太算利空，更像是做慈善。对特斯拉来说，短期算利空，中期啥也算不上 $英伟达(NVDA)$ $特...
# 英伟达股价两连跌！谨慎观望？
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Johnsonk:
做的人越多，监管放的越快
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JUNJUN CHEN
·
01-07 23:08
这种无脑唱空的文章，有个叫“畜牧教主马斯克”的人一看就高潮，多多推给他好了
特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业
综上，储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块，但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。要知道，彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。综合来看，特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业，反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。
特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业
这种无脑唱空的文章，有个叫“畜牧教主马斯克”的人一看就高潮，多多推给他好了
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可乐虎
·
02:22
刚刚回来，感觉大盘冲了一波又掉下来了，我们先等看今晚的收盘价吧，能不能上6954很重要。目前看很多个股都不用特别担心，BABA大底147、 BTC强支撑9.1万。给它们多跑两天吧，大家晚安❤️
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
刚刚回来，感觉大盘冲了一波又掉下来了，我们先等看今晚的收盘价吧，能不能上6954很重要。目前看很多个股都不用特别担心，BABA大底147、 BTC强支撑9...
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编组 21备份 2
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三刀刀
·
06:08
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
连跌半个月……牛逼
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 连跌半个月……牛逼
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Redcup
·
05:55
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
帮忙倒车385，我要上车。
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 帮忙倒车385，我要上车。
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KEINS
·
01-07 17:41
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
每天至少一个利空。。。牛逼
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 每天至少一个利空。。。牛逼
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1
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4
编组 21备份 2
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Ericlove
·
01-07 22:12
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
What’s the market situation tonight?
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ What’s the market situation tonight?
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主神级交易员鄧文
·
00:31
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
啊，2026年第一帖，
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 啊，2026年第一帖，
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改做长线活得久自然有
·
01-07 01:13
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
悬着的心终于死了 英伟达一进来，把本就护城河不深的特斯拉SFD吓的半死，马斯克的宏图大业太多了。。。虽然亏了，也割了，但是我还是爱特斯拉，还是爱马斯克！
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 悬着的心终于死了 英伟达一进来，把本就护城河不深的特斯拉SFD吓的半死，马斯克的宏图大业太多了。。。虽然亏了，也割了，但是我还是爱...
# 晒晒更赚钱
精彩
YYC888:
214～498涨了7个月，跌了9天就投投降，怎么赢钱？
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可乐虎
·
01-07 22:34
26.01.07美股盘前解读：这两天可能会有震荡，大家只需要盯着QQQ就行了，一旦向上突破就会起飞
1、这两天大盘可能会有震荡，大家只需要盯着QQQ就行了，一旦向上突破就会起飞，当然也会有极小极小极小的概率会跌下来。
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
2、哈哈，怎么我看到有人说我不敢推小票了，我都关注IWM那么久了，也说过26年的主场会是中小盘股，不推小票是不可能的，12月3日开始推股票时提到了EOSE、12月31日群里也提到了ONDS，ZETA、OKLO、SMR也都是小票呢。 3、今晚盘中再做个股解读。
26.01.07美股盘前解读：这两天可能会有震荡，大家只需要盯着QQQ就行了，一旦向上突破就会起飞
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落叶星辰
·
01-07 22:43
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
今晚应该能涨一波
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 今晚应该能涨一波
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同和华彩
·
00:06
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
作为常规年度升级，2026款Model Y在核心产品力上保持克制。新车延续26.35-31.35万元的定价区间，仅将中控显示屏尺寸从15.4英寸提升至16英寸，视觉体验与操作流畅度得到优化。设计层面维持家族化极简语言，0.22Cd的风阻系数通过溜背造型、隐藏式门把手等经典元素得以保留
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 作为常规年度升级，2026款Model Y在核心产品力上保持克制。新车延续26.35-31.35万元的定价区间，仅将中控显示屏尺寸...
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可乐虎
·
01-07 23:54
发现EOSE等等一些中小盘股放飞自我，敞开了玩 大家不用担心，倒置“头肩”胜率非常高。空方赢不了的，多方陪他们玩耍而已，趋势摆在那里了。我出门买点东西，晚点回来。
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
发现EOSE等等一些中小盘股放飞自我，敞开了玩 大家不用担心，倒置“头肩”胜率非常高。空方赢不了的，多方陪他们玩耍而已，趋势摆在那里了。我出门买点东西，晚...
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08年韭菜
·
01-07 13:31
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
到 380 接
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 到 380 接
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2
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1
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永远的话事人
·
01-07 23:23
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
今晚的转灯还挺频繁的呢
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 今晚的转灯还挺频繁的呢
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TimothyX
·
01-07 22:03
白银ETF SLV因地缘政治紧张而上涨5%；在1月16日的70次罢工中，其168万份期权成交量由7.3万份评级领衔。扣除所有罢工后，TSLA录得标普500最强劲的看涨delta流量，相当于+94万股，这是由本周到期的455辆评级的积极购买推动的。
白银ETF SLV因地缘政治紧张而上涨5%；在1月16日的70次罢工中，其168万份期权成交量由7.3万份评级领衔。扣除所有罢工后，TSLA录得标普500...
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特斯拉
·
01-07 16:47
烈焰红Model 3泊入暮色山城🌆 江岸灯火与山城璀璨，尽数定格⚡️ 📸：Sailor_cc
烈焰红Model 3泊入暮色山城🌆 江岸灯火与山城璀璨，尽数定格⚡️ 📸：Sailor_cc
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帅气炀
·
01-06 23:22
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
英伟达搞无人驾驶，波士顿机器人量产，双重打击，才跌3个点！谎个⚽️，继续加仓干！
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 英伟达搞无人驾驶，波士顿机器人量产，双重打击，才跌3个点！谎个⚽️，继续加仓干！
精彩
美到:
干就完了我480买的，以后先受益的肯定是自动驾驶和人型机器人，特斯拉等于手机里的苹果，其他都是安卓
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火火兔爸
·
01-07 00:26
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
英伟达只是压死特斯拉的最后稻草，实际上是美股都要亡了
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 英伟达只是压死特斯拉的最后稻草，实际上是美股都要亡了
精彩
Johnsonk:
涨得时候你最欢，稍微跌一下就要亡了，大惊小怪，疫情熔断都从容不迫，手拿正股，心中毫无波澜
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无情的交易机器
·
01-06 22:48
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
蚊子腿No218。
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 蚊子腿No218。
精彩
投资是种休行:
特斯拉被你买奔的
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公司概况
公司名称
特斯拉
所属市场
NASDAQ
成立日期
- -
员工人数
- -
办公地址
- -
公司网址
http://www.tesla.com
邮政编码
- -
联系电话
- -
联系传真
- -
公司概况
特斯拉成立于2003年，总部位于加州帕洛阿尔托(Palo Alto)，是一家垂直整合的可持续能源公司，它还旨在通过制造电动汽车让世界过渡到电动出行。 该公司销售用于能源发电的太阳能电池板和太阳能屋顶，以及用于住宅和商业物业(包括公用事业)固定存储的电池。 特斯拉旗下有多款车，包括豪华、中型轿车和跨界suv。 该公司还计划开始销售更多价格实惠的轿车和小型suv、轻型卡车、半卡车和跑车。
01-02
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 | 特斯拉关联方 James Murdoch 拟减持6万股，总价约2698万美元
Form 144 | 特斯拉关联方 James Murdoch 拟减持6万股，总价约2698万美元
01-02
重要事件披露
Form 8-K - Current report
Form 8-K - Current report
2025-12-09
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 | 特斯拉董事 Kimbal Musk 拟减持56820股，总价约2497万美元
Form 144 | 特斯拉董事 Kimbal Musk 拟减持56820股，总价约2497万美元
2025-12-08
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 | 特斯拉高管 Vaibhav Taneja 拟减持2637股，总价约117万美元
Form 144 | 特斯拉高管 Vaibhav Taneja 拟减持2637股，总价约117万美元
2025-11-10
员工持股计划
Form S-8 - Securities to be offered to employees in employee benefit plans
Form S-8 - Securities to be offered to employees in employee benefit plans
2025-11-07
重要事件披露
Form 8-K - Current report
Form 8-K - Current report
2025-10-23
季度报告
Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)]
Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)]
2025-10-22
重要事件披露
Form 8-K - Current report
Form 8-K - Current report
2025-10-02
重要事件披露
Form 8-K - Current report
Form 8-K - Current report
2025-09-15
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 | 特斯拉附属 James Murdoch 拟减持60000股，总价约2375.64万美元
Form 144 | 特斯拉附属 James Murdoch 拟减持60000股，总价约2375.64万美元
2025-09-11
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 | 特斯拉高管 Xiaotong Zhu 拟减持2万股，总价约727.5万美元
Form 144 | 特斯拉高管 Xiaotong Zhu 拟减持2万股，总价约727.5万美元
2025-09-08
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 | 特斯拉高管 Vaibhav Taneja 拟减持2606股，总价约91.83万美元
Form 144 | 特斯拉高管 Vaibhav Taneja 拟减持2606股，总价约91.83万美元
2025-09-05
重要事件披露
Form 8-K - Current report
Form 8-K - Current report
2025-08-26
关联方拟减持公告
Form 144 | Tesla Affiliate James Murdoch 拟减持120,000股，总价约41,592,000美元
Form 144 | Tesla Affiliate James Murdoch 拟减持120,000股，总价约41,592,000美元
2025-08-04
重要事件披露
Form 8-K - Current report
Form 8-K - Current report
分时
5日
日
周
月
数据加载中...
最高
438.37
今开
435.90
量比
0.85
最低
431.29
昨收
432.96
换手率
2.51%
热议股票
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<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>","plainDigest":"英伟达做智驾算法这事儿，对英伟达来说，短期不算利好，长期也不太算利空，更像是做慈善。对特斯拉来说，短期算利空，中期啥也算不上 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 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19:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601877535","media":"美股研究社","summary":"综上，储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块，但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。要知道，彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。综合来看，特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业，反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险</strong></p><p>我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶（FSD）、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单，这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益，依旧停留在投机阶段。</p><p>即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功，也必须正视一个现实：这些领域的竞争都异常激烈，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在切入这些赛道时，已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议，导致品牌声誉受损，暴露出显著的<strong>核心人物风险</strong>。近年来，市场上一直流传着 “过度追求政治正确，终将反噬企业经营” 的说法，而这一道理反过来同样成立。特斯拉因立场问题疏远了至少半数消费者，进而可能损害用户信任 —— 这对公司的发展而言，无疑是一剂毒药。</p><img src=\"\"/><p>【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLcrVAEs2bhwIEUP4FfvianI8UkwWsmGS8QGt9FUCfIVia1npfInK1SOWWQ/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>储能业务：</strong></p><p><strong>装机量增长放缓，单位营收持续下滑</strong></p><p>接下来聚焦特斯拉的核心实体业务 —— 汽车制造与储能系统。在所有业务指标中，储能装机量（GWh）是特斯拉唯一能拿出手的增长数据。2025 年第四季度，公司储能装机量达到 14.2 吉瓦时的历史新高；全年装机量累计达 46.7 吉瓦时，展现出强劲的扩张态势。</p><p>但光鲜数据的背后，是<strong>同比增速的快速滑落</strong>：2025 年储能装机量同比增幅为 49%，远低于 2024 年的 114% 与 2023 年的 126%。市场预测，到 2029 年，这一增速将进一步放缓至 26%，对应装机量约 141.8 吉瓦时。</p><p>与装机量增速放缓相伴而来的，是<strong>单位装机量营收的持续走低</strong>。2020 至 2021 年，特斯拉每吉瓦时储能装机量能创造近 7 亿美元的营收；而到了 2025 年第二季度，这一数值已腰斩过半，降至 2.89 亿美元；第三季度进一步下滑至 2.76 亿美元。值得注意的是，过去五个季度里，储能业务的毛利率基本稳定在 25% 至 31% 的区间。</p><p>综上，储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块，但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLczbSMU66CbrBjDq7jpr5zsiclLE4DkRGuL9TVwK0r2tbvibNaKK4AzxHw/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>汽车业务：</strong></p><p><strong>交付量下滑叠加售价走低，内外承压</strong></p><p>无论市场如何炒作新概念，汽车销售仍是特斯拉的核心支柱业务。已有大量报道指出，2025 年第四季度，特斯拉汽车交付量同比暴跌 16%；全年交付量同比下降 9%，创下公司史上最差的季度同比表现，同时也是连续第二个财年交付量下滑。</p><p>此外，根据分析师的测算，截至 2025 年第三季度，特斯拉汽车的过去十二个月（TTM）平均售价已<span>跌破</span> 4 万美元。</p><p>市场预测，到 2029 年，特斯拉汽车年交付量有望达到 300 万辆，较 2025 年的 160 万辆实现增长。但这一目标的可行性，分析师深表怀疑 —— 毕竟，特斯拉正面临日益激烈的市场竞争。即便我们姑且认可这一偏乐观的预测，其对应的 2029 年交付量同比增速也仅为 28%，与 2023 年之前的高速增长时代相去甚远。要知道，彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。</p><p>从区域市场的表现中，我们更能直观感受到特斯拉的困境。2025 年 11 月，中国新能源汽车市场整体销量同比增长 21%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>等中国本土品牌的交付量更是实现翻倍，而特斯拉在华销量却陷入同比停滞。</p><p>放眼全球市场，2025 年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>的纯电动汽车销量已大幅超越特斯拉。而在欧洲市场，马斯克的立场引发了消费者的强烈抵触：2025 年 12 月，特斯拉在瑞典、法国、西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙的新车注册量同比分别暴跌 71%、66%、44%、28% 和 13%。从欧洲主要市场的全年数据初步判断，特斯拉 2025 年的注册量同比降幅约为 25%，市场份额持续萎缩。</p><p>雪上加霜的是，受美国本土政策支持力度减弱等因素影响，2026 年全球新能源汽车销量的整体增速预计将显著放缓。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLciaWMQ0QPFPFmoNQtcVWichXhCuZB2x0BS879mNfIl6Lz8r5HIRlqLj6w/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>估值泡沫：</strong></p><p><strong>人形机器人预期已被过度透支</strong></p><p>我们不妨暂且采信马斯克的说法 —— 预计到 2026 或 2027 年，特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的销量将突破 100 万台，单价或达 2.25 万美元，对应潜在营收约 225 亿美元。</p><p>但从下图的市场一致预期中可以看出，这部分潜在营收早已被<strong>完全计入当前估值</strong>。在覆盖特斯拉的 34 位分析师中，最乐观的预测认为，公司 2027 年的年化营收将较 2025 年增长 720 亿美元。由此可见，市场对特斯拉的预期已然达到了 “只能成功、不能失败” 的极端程度。</p><p>即便以这份极度乐观的 2027 年营收预期为基准，特斯拉当前对应的远期市盈率仍高达 147 倍。在之前的分析中，分析师曾从多个角度拆解特斯拉的估值，结论早已不言而喻：其估值水平早已脱离基本面，荒谬至极。而时至今日，这一结论依然成立。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdKLTlW17KYicXbduwZsUSFEKA3QhDoZBDRLD4pI17USiafzA7ib7ZgicBniaIKocAFvdFCDFy7DSsRicKibw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&from=appmsg\"/><p>数据来源：营收预期（Seeking Alpha）</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdJ3W4gruZ6lz6pj1cuQvXYHzFTgv6zBDxN3hjm1PtXPLNKCakI3eyW9mPqibvjCvXwDia0vaM9Nht8w/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>结语</strong></p><p>在竞争白热化的新能源汽车市场，特斯拉正面临交付量下滑与售价走低的双重压力；储能业务虽有增长，但增速放缓、单位营收下滑的隐忧日益凸显。人形机器人等新兴业务的潜在收益，早已被市场透支殆尽，当前估值完全建立在充满不确定性的预期之上。</p><p>更致命的是，创始人的政治立场引发的品牌声誉危机，以及由此带来的核心人物风险，正在持续损害公司的用户基础与市场竞争力。</p><p>综合来看，特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业，反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。对投资者而言，现在正是最后的离场时机。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdJlQNwm5fnHWnfblqB1P5B3gLTjg6j6dT5IyOFclcldYqPQickKMUqicdaXvibXdEb4OibV97CAwGO6TQ/640?wx_fmt=other&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=5\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdKnkt8t5QpwjNQOKyGlZz4SFiacicdM3aP4hZVCfGia7HbIYBoDxz2gubPAgoXDXhfrcLIfT2eG92icfw/640?wx_fmt=other&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=6\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/dR7EpbvovdLt0fplojSTcIf4vTY1fP5f5VhIsL3QI5iaHIficMHKVzpaxPOM0yB24Zgs1PJlLHXFs5UXKRic0iaTxA/640?wx_fmt=gif&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=7\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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}\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-07 19:16 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶（FSD）、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单，这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益，依旧停留在投机阶段。即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功，也必须正视一个现实：这些领域的竞争都异常激烈，而特斯拉在切入这些赛道时，已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议，导致品牌声誉受损，暴露出显著的核心人物风险。近年来，市场上一直...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS 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ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2403377893.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USD) INC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2601877535","content_text":"用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶（FSD）、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单，这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益，依旧停留在投机阶段。即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功，也必须正视一个现实：这些领域的竞争都异常激烈，而特斯拉在切入这些赛道时，已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议，导致品牌声誉受损，暴露出显著的核心人物风险。近年来，市场上一直流传着 “过度追求政治正确，终将反噬企业经营” 的说法，而这一道理反过来同样成立。特斯拉因立场问题疏远了至少半数消费者，进而可能损害用户信任 —— 这对公司的发展而言，无疑是一剂毒药。【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】储能业务：装机量增长放缓，单位营收持续下滑接下来聚焦特斯拉的核心实体业务 —— 汽车制造与储能系统。在所有业务指标中，储能装机量（GWh）是特斯拉唯一能拿出手的增长数据。2025 年第四季度，公司储能装机量达到 14.2 吉瓦时的历史新高；全年装机量累计达 46.7 吉瓦时，展现出强劲的扩张态势。但光鲜数据的背后，是同比增速的快速滑落：2025 年储能装机量同比增幅为 49%，远低于 2024 年的 114% 与 2023 年的 126%。市场预测，到 2029 年，这一增速将进一步放缓至 26%，对应装机量约 141.8 吉瓦时。与装机量增速放缓相伴而来的，是单位装机量营收的持续走低。2020 至 2021 年，特斯拉每吉瓦时储能装机量能创造近 7 亿美元的营收；而到了 2025 年第二季度，这一数值已腰斩过半，降至 2.89 亿美元；第三季度进一步下滑至 2.76 亿美元。值得注意的是，过去五个季度里，储能业务的毛利率基本稳定在 25% 至 31% 的区间。综上，储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块，但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。汽车业务：交付量下滑叠加售价走低，内外承压无论市场如何炒作新概念，汽车销售仍是特斯拉的核心支柱业务。已有大量报道指出，2025 年第四季度，特斯拉汽车交付量同比暴跌 16%；全年交付量同比下降 9%，创下公司史上最差的季度同比表现，同时也是连续第二个财年交付量下滑。此外，根据分析师的测算，截至 2025 年第三季度，特斯拉汽车的过去十二个月（TTM）平均售价已跌破 4 万美元。市场预测，到 2029 年，特斯拉汽车年交付量有望达到 300 万辆，较 2025 年的 160 万辆实现增长。但这一目标的可行性，分析师深表怀疑 —— 毕竟，特斯拉正面临日益激烈的市场竞争。即便我们姑且认可这一偏乐观的预测，其对应的 2029 年交付量同比增速也仅为 28%，与 2023 年之前的高速增长时代相去甚远。要知道，彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。从区域市场的表现中，我们更能直观感受到特斯拉的困境。2025 年 11 月，中国新能源汽车市场整体销量同比增长 21%，小米等中国本土品牌的交付量更是实现翻倍，而特斯拉在华销量却陷入同比停滞。放眼全球市场，2025 年比亚迪的纯电动汽车销量已大幅超越特斯拉。而在欧洲市场，马斯克的立场引发了消费者的强烈抵触：2025 年 12 月，特斯拉在瑞典、法国、西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙的新车注册量同比分别暴跌 71%、66%、44%、28% 和 13%。从欧洲主要市场的全年数据初步判断，特斯拉 2025 年的注册量同比降幅约为 25%，市场份额持续萎缩。雪上加霜的是，受美国本土政策支持力度减弱等因素影响，2026 年全球新能源汽车销量的整体增速预计将显著放缓。估值泡沫：人形机器人预期已被过度透支我们不妨暂且采信马斯克的说法 —— 预计到 2026 或 2027 年，特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的销量将突破 100 万台，单价或达 2.25 万美元，对应潜在营收约 225 亿美元。但从下图的市场一致预期中可以看出，这部分潜在营收早已被完全计入当前估值。在覆盖特斯拉的 34 位分析师中，最乐观的预测认为，公司 2027 年的年化营收将较 2025 年增长 720 亿美元。由此可见，市场对特斯拉的预期已然达到了 “只能成功、不能失败” 的极端程度。即便以这份极度乐观的 2027 年营收预期为基准，特斯拉当前对应的远期市盈率仍高达 147 倍。在之前的分析中，分析师曾从多个角度拆解特斯拉的估值，结论早已不言而喻：其估值水平早已脱离基本面，荒谬至极。而时至今日，这一结论依然成立。数据来源：营收预期（Seeking 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