特朗普计划的不确定性削弱了对经济前景的信心 - 老虎社区

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- 肥电肥电
  ·2025-02-20
  利好还是利空？
  美联储纪要：要看到通胀继续下降才能降息，但特朗普政策让通胀存在上行风险
  美联储1月会议纪要显示，美联储官员在1月份会议上达成共识，认为在进一步降息之前，需要看到通胀继续下降。与会者指出，通胀前景存在上行风险，特别是与会者提到了贸易和移民政策可能发生变化的影响。“新美联储通讯社”Nick Timiraos表示，这是因为在未来几个月，美联储面临着提高联邦债务上限所带来的复杂问题。　　美联储会议纪要称，能在经济强劲时维持限制性的政策，希望在调整利率前看到进一步取得通胀进展。
  美联储纪要：要看到通胀继续下降才能降息，但特朗普政策让通胀存在上行风险
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2025 年的经济走势会非常积极，我们会看到稳健的增长，通胀将继续向2%靠拢，劳动力市场也将保持稳健。但现在，所有这些潜在的变化，意味着这种预测的可靠性和精确度有所降低，我们只能拭目以待，看看情势如何发展。”","subtitle":"","subtitle_show":0,"pub_time":1739998773000,"source_id":"jinrongjie_stock","language":"zh","url":"https://24h.jrj.com.cn/2025/02/20045948268470.shtml","is_publish_highlight":0,"top_time":0,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.6,"FT_SY_ES":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"US10Y.BOND":1,"US12M.BOND":1,"US2Y.BOND":1,"US30Y.BOND":1,"US3Y.BOND":1,"US5Y.BOND":1,"US6M.BOND":1,"US7Y.BOND":1},"rights":null},{"id":181925,"article_id":"2512439368","title":"【美联储公布1月会议纪要：通胀率略高 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直至通胀取得更多进展】美联储会议纪要显示，官员们1月表示准备好在通胀顽固和经济政策不确定的情况下保持利率不变。联邦公开市场委员会1月28-29日的会议纪要显示：“与会者表明，只要经济仍接近充分就业，他们希望在对联邦基金利率目标区间进行额外调整之前看到通胀方面的进一步进展。”周三公布的会议纪要称，“许多与会者指出，如果经济保持强劲且通胀仍然很高，委员会可以将政策利率维持在限制性水平。”","subtitle":"","subtitle_show":0,"pub_time":1739993606000,"source_id":"jinrongjie_stock","language":"zh","url":"https://24h.jrj.com.cn/2025/02/20033348268373.shtml","is_publish_highlight":0,"top_time":0,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.6,"FT_SY_ES":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"US10Y.BOND":1,"US12M.BOND":1,"US2Y.BOND":1,"US30Y.BOND":1,"US3Y.BOND":1,"US5Y.BOND":1,"US6M.BOND":1,"US7Y.BOND":1},"rights":null},{"id":181898,"article_id":"2512435711","title":"【美联储会议纪要：希望在降息前看到通胀方面进一步的进展】美联储会议纪要显示，美联储希望在决定再次降息之前看到“通胀方面的进一步进展”。美联储以通胀压力上升为由，在上次会议上将利率稳定在4.25%-4.5%的区间，市场预期3月会议也不会降息。根据会议纪要，委员会一致认为“美联储有充分的时间评估经济活动、劳动力市场和通胀不断变化的前景”。许多经济学家和市场策略师担心，关税和更严格的移民政策可能会加大通胀压力，从而有可能抵消降低税收和放松监管带来的积极影响。美联储此前已表明，由于通胀持续高企，它不急于进一步降息。通胀已从疫情后的高位回落，但仍顽固地高于美联储理想中的水平。例如，1月份的消费者物价指数同比增长3%，是七个月来最快的速度，也高于美联储2%的目标。","subtitle":"","subtitle_show":0,"pub_time":1739993216000,"source_id":"jinrongjie_stock","language":"zh","url":"https://24h.jrj.com.cn/2025/02/20032648268361.shtml","is_publish_highlight":0,"top_time":0,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.6,"FT_SY_ES":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"US10Y.BOND":1,"US12M.BOND":1,"US2Y.BOND":1,"US30Y.BOND":1,"US3Y.BOND":1,"US5Y.BOND":1,"US6M.BOND":1,"US7Y.BOND":1},"rights":null},{"id":181897,"article_id":"2512435937","title":"美联储会议纪要：高度的不确定性使我们有必要谨慎行事。","subtitle":"","subtitle_show":0,"pub_time":1739992097000,"source_id":"jinrongjie_stock","language":"zh","url":"https://24h.jrj.com.cn/2025/02/20030848268330.shtml","is_publish_highlight":0,"top_time":0,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.6,"FT_SY_ES":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"US10Y.BOND":1,"US12M.BOND":1,"US2Y.BOND":1,"US30Y.BOND":1,"US3Y.BOND":1,"US5Y.BOND":1,"US6M.BOND":1,"US7Y.BOND":1},"rights":null},{"id":181921,"article_id":"2512436330","title":"联储局最新会议纪录：官员忧关税等风险 料维持利率直至通胀改善","subtitle":"","subtitle_show":0,"pub_time":1739991960000,"source_id":"aastocks_highlight","language":"zh","url":"http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1418624/latest-news/AAFN","is_publish_highlight":0,"top_time":0,"symbols_score_info":{"FT_SY_TN":1,"FT_SY_UB":1,"FT_SY_ZB":1,"FT_SY_ZF":1,"FT_SY_ZN":1,"FT_SY_ZT":1},"rights":null},{"id":181895,"article_id":"2512435932","title":"美联储会议纪要：一些与会者指出，贸易和移民政策的潜在变化有可能阻碍反通胀进程。","subtitle":"","subtitle_show":0,"pub_time":1739991825000,"source_id":"jinrongjie_stock","language":"zh","url":"https://24h.jrj.com.cn/2025/02/20030348268323.shtml","is_publish_highlight":0,"top_time":0,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.6,"FT_SY_ES":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"US10Y.BOND":1,"US12M.BOND":1,"US2Y.BOND":1,"US30Y.BOND":1,"US3Y.BOND":1,"US5Y.BOND":1,"US6M.BOND":1,"US7Y.BOND":1},"rights":null},{"id":181896,"article_id":"2512356054","title":"【美联储会议纪要：所有与会者认为维持目标利率不变是适当的】美联储1月货币政策会议纪要显示，所有与会者认为维持目标利率不变是适当的。部分与会者提到，贸易和移民政策的潜在变化可能会对通胀回落进程产生阻碍。几位与会者表示，看来实现通胀目标的风险大于实现就业目标的风险。","subtitle":"","subtitle_show":0,"pub_time":1739991804000,"source_id":"jinrongjie_stock","language":"zh","url":"https://24h.jrj.com.cn/2025/02/20030348268314.shtml","is_publish_highlight":0,"top_time":0,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.6,"FT_SY_ES":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"US10Y.BOND":1,"US12M.BOND":1,"US2Y.BOND":1,"US30Y.BOND":1,"US3Y.BOND":1,"US5Y.BOND":1,"US6M.BOND":1,"US7Y.BOND":1},"rights":null}],"isFinancial":true,"allList":[{"id":405414186070504,"gmtCreate":1740002303448,"gmtModify":1740002305398,"author":{"id":"3558990346406919","authorId":"3558990346406919","name":"肥电","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c873d6c9cf7ab0872137acc75c6cda28","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558990346406919","idStr":"3558990346406919"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"利好还是利空？","listText":"利好还是利空？","text":"利好还是利空？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/405414186070504","repostId":"2512643489","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2512643489","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1739998929,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2512643489?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-20 05:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储纪要：要看到通胀继续下降才能降息，但特朗普政策让通胀存在上行风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2512643489","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储1月会议纪要显示，美联储官员在1月份会议上达成共识，认为在进一步降息之前，需要看到通胀继续下降。与会者指出，通胀前景存在上行风险，特别是与会者提到了贸易和移民政策可能发生变化的影响。“新美联储通讯社”Nick Timiraos表示，这是因为在未来几个月，美联储面临着提高联邦债务上限所带来的复杂问题。　　美联储会议纪要称，能在经济强劲时维持限制性的政策，希望在调整利率前看到进一步取得通胀进展。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美联储1月会议纪要显示，与会官员认为，在进一步降息之前，需要看到通胀继续下降，但特朗普关税等政策让通胀存在上行风险。总体来看，会议纪要并未改变市场对美联储政策走向的预期。同时，官员们讨论了是否放缓或暂停其近6.8万亿美元资产组合的缩减，因为在未来几个月，美联储面临着提高联邦债务上限所带来的复杂问题。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>要点：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储1月会议纪要显示，美联储官员在1月份会议上达成共识，认为在进一步降息之前，需要看到通胀继续下降。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与会者指出，通胀前景存在上行风险，特别是与会者提到了贸易和移民政策可能发生变化的影响。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">会议纪要也提到，对经济前景存在相当大的乐观情绪，部分原因是市场预期政府监管的放松或税收政策的变化。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">官员们还讨论了是否放缓或暂停其近6.8万亿美元资产组合的缩减。“新美联储通讯社”Nick Timiraos表示，这是因为在未来几个月，美联储面临着提高联邦债务上限所带来的复杂问题。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储会议纪要称，能在经济强劲时维持限制性的政策，希望在调整利率前看到进一步取得通胀进展。总体来看，会议纪要并未改变市场对美联储政策走向的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储周三公布的1月会议纪要显示，美联储官员在1月份会议上达成共识，认为在进一步降息之前，需要看到通胀继续下降，并对美国总统特朗普的关税政策可能对通胀带来的影响表示担忧。</p><h2 id=\"id_1022513920\">与会者：通胀改善后再降息</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在1月会议上，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）一致决定维持关键政策利率不变。会议纪要显示，在做出这一决定时，与会成员讨论了特朗普新政府可能带来的影响，包括有关关税的讨论以及减少监管和税收的潜在影响。委员会指出，相较于降息前的政策环境，目前的货币政策“明显不那么紧缩”，这使得成员们有时间在采取进一步行动前评估经济形势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与会者表示，目前的政策提供了“时间来评估经济活动、劳动力市场和通胀的变化前景”，绝大多数成员认为，美联储当前政策立场仍具有一定的紧缩性。会议纪要表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“<strong>与会者指出，只要经济仍然接近最大就业水平，他们希望在采取进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间之前，看到通胀进一步下降的进展。”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“许多与会者指出，如果经济保持强劲且通胀仍然高企，委员会可以将政策利率维持在限制性水平。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">官员们指出，他们担心财政政策变化可能会导致通胀维持在美联储目标之上。</p><h2 id=\"id_4124153105\">美联储：特朗普政策让通胀存在上行风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前，美国总统特朗普已经实施了一些关税政策，但最近几天，他威胁要进一步扩大关税范围。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在周二与记者的谈话中，特朗普表示，他正在考虑对汽车、制药和半导体行业征收25%的关税，并将在今年内逐步加速实施。尽管他没有详细说明，但这些关税措施将使贸易政策进入新阶段，并在当前通胀有所缓解但仍高于美联储2%目标的情况下，进一步推高价格水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">会议纪要显示，FOMC成员提到，</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“潜在贸易和移民政策变化的影响，以及强劲的消费者需求。多个地区的商业联系人表示，<strong>企业将尝试将潜在关税导致的更高投入成本转嫁给消费者。”</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他们进一步指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“<strong>通胀前景存在上行风险，特别是与会者提到了贸易和移民政策可能发生变化的影响。”</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自1月会议以来，大多数美联储官员在谈及政策走向时均保持谨慎态度。大多数人认为，当前利率水平允许他们有充足时间来评估如何推进政策调整。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除了美联储官员通常关注的就业和通胀问题，特朗普的财政和贸易政策计划也为决策增加了复杂性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在对关税和通胀的担忧之外，会议纪要也提到，“对经济前景存在相当大的乐观情绪，部分原因是市场预期政府监管的放松或税收政策的变化。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">许多经济学家认为，特朗普计划实施的关税将加剧通胀，<strong>尽管美联储决策者表示，他们的政策反应将取决于这些关税是否仅带来一次性的价格上涨，还是会引发更深层次的通胀压力，从而需要采取政策应对。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期的通胀指标表现不一，1月份消费者价格指数（CPI）涨幅超出预期，而批发价格指数（PPI）则显示供应链上的价格压力有所减弱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储主席鲍威尔普遍避免对关税可能带来的影响进行猜测。然而，其他官员已经表达了担忧，并承认特朗普的措施可能影响货币政策，可能会进一步推迟降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前，美联储的基准隔夜拆借利率目标区间为4.25%-4.5%。根据期货市场的定价，投资者目前预计2025年将有一次降息，甚至可能进行第二次降息，下一次降息可能会在7月或9月进行。</p><h2 id=\"id_1455144254\">新美联储通讯社：或放缓甚至暂停缩表</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街见闻文章称，有“新美联储通讯社”的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos表示，美联储1月会议纪要显示，官员们在上个月的会议上讨论了是否放缓或暂停其近6.8万亿美元资产组合的缩减，因为在未来几个月，他们面临着提高联邦债务上限所带来的复杂问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Timiraos指出，与债务上限相关的市场动态，可能导致美联储负债端的储备金（reserves）出现大幅波动。自2022年年中以来，美联储一直在缩减其资产负债表，以逆转新冠疫情期间的宽松货币政策QE。不过，缩表过程最终将耗尽银行系统的储备金，而美联储官员们目前尚不确定这一过程要持续多久。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他指出，美国财政部将如何管理其现金余额所引发的货币市场波动，可能会使美联储确定正确的储备平衡的能力复杂化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，根据会议纪要，官员们在1月会议上认为，“考虑暂停或放缓资产负债表的缩减，直到债务上限问题得到解决可能是合适的”。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储纪要：要看到通胀继续下降才能降息，但特朗普政策让通胀存在上行风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储纪要：要看到通胀继续下降才能降息，但特朗普政策让通胀存在上行风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-20 05:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741459><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储1月会议纪要显示，与会官员认为，在进一步降息之前，需要看到通胀继续下降，但特朗普关税等政策让通胀存在上行风险。总体来看，会议纪要并未改变市场对美联储政策走向的预期。同时，官员们讨论了是否放缓或暂停其近6.8万亿美元资产组合的缩减，因为在未来几个月，美联储面临着提高联邦债务上限所带来的复杂问题。要点：美联储1月会议纪要显示，美联储官员在1月份会议上达成共识，认为在进一步降息之前，需要看到通胀...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741459\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4588":"碎股","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEX":"标普100","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741459","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2512643489","content_text":"美联储1月会议纪要显示，与会官员认为，在进一步降息之前，需要看到通胀继续下降，但特朗普关税等政策让通胀存在上行风险。总体来看，会议纪要并未改变市场对美联储政策走向的预期。同时，官员们讨论了是否放缓或暂停其近6.8万亿美元资产组合的缩减，因为在未来几个月，美联储面临着提高联邦债务上限所带来的复杂问题。要点：美联储1月会议纪要显示，美联储官员在1月份会议上达成共识，认为在进一步降息之前，需要看到通胀继续下降。与会者指出，通胀前景存在上行风险，特别是与会者提到了贸易和移民政策可能发生变化的影响。会议纪要也提到，对经济前景存在相当大的乐观情绪，部分原因是市场预期政府监管的放松或税收政策的变化。官员们还讨论了是否放缓或暂停其近6.8万亿美元资产组合的缩减。“新美联储通讯社”Nick Timiraos表示，这是因为在未来几个月，美联储面临着提高联邦债务上限所带来的复杂问题。美联储会议纪要称，能在经济强劲时维持限制性的政策，希望在调整利率前看到进一步取得通胀进展。总体来看，会议纪要并未改变市场对美联储政策走向的预期。美联储周三公布的1月会议纪要显示，美联储官员在1月份会议上达成共识，认为在进一步降息之前，需要看到通胀继续下降，并对美国总统特朗普的关税政策可能对通胀带来的影响表示担忧。与会者：通胀改善后再降息在1月会议上，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）一致决定维持关键政策利率不变。会议纪要显示，在做出这一决定时，与会成员讨论了特朗普新政府可能带来的影响，包括有关关税的讨论以及减少监管和税收的潜在影响。委员会指出，相较于降息前的政策环境，目前的货币政策“明显不那么紧缩”，这使得成员们有时间在采取进一步行动前评估经济形势。与会者表示，目前的政策提供了“时间来评估经济活动、劳动力市场和通胀的变化前景”，绝大多数成员认为，美联储当前政策立场仍具有一定的紧缩性。会议纪要表示：“与会者指出，只要经济仍然接近最大就业水平，他们希望在采取进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间之前，看到通胀进一步下降的进展。”“许多与会者指出，如果经济保持强劲且通胀仍然高企，委员会可以将政策利率维持在限制性水平。”官员们指出，他们担心财政政策变化可能会导致通胀维持在美联储目标之上。美联储：特朗普政策让通胀存在上行风险目前，美国总统特朗普已经实施了一些关税政策，但最近几天，他威胁要进一步扩大关税范围。在周二与记者的谈话中，特朗普表示，他正在考虑对汽车、制药和半导体行业征收25%的关税，并将在今年内逐步加速实施。尽管他没有详细说明，但这些关税措施将使贸易政策进入新阶段，并在当前通胀有所缓解但仍高于美联储2%目标的情况下，进一步推高价格水平。会议纪要显示，FOMC成员提到，“潜在贸易和移民政策变化的影响，以及强劲的消费者需求。多个地区的商业联系人表示，企业将尝试将潜在关税导致的更高投入成本转嫁给消费者。”他们进一步指出：“通胀前景存在上行风险，特别是与会者提到了贸易和移民政策可能发生变化的影响。”自1月会议以来，大多数美联储官员在谈及政策走向时均保持谨慎态度。大多数人认为，当前利率水平允许他们有充足时间来评估如何推进政策调整。除了美联储官员通常关注的就业和通胀问题，特朗普的财政和贸易政策计划也为决策增加了复杂性。在对关税和通胀的担忧之外，会议纪要也提到，“对经济前景存在相当大的乐观情绪，部分原因是市场预期政府监管的放松或税收政策的变化。”许多经济学家认为，特朗普计划实施的关税将加剧通胀，尽管美联储决策者表示，他们的政策反应将取决于这些关税是否仅带来一次性的价格上涨，还是会引发更深层次的通胀压力，从而需要采取政策应对。近期的通胀指标表现不一，1月份消费者价格指数（CPI）涨幅超出预期，而批发价格指数（PPI）则显示供应链上的价格压力有所减弱。美联储主席鲍威尔普遍避免对关税可能带来的影响进行猜测。然而，其他官员已经表达了担忧，并承认特朗普的措施可能影响货币政策，可能会进一步推迟降息。目前，美联储的基准隔夜拆借利率目标区间为4.25%-4.5%。根据期货市场的定价，投资者目前预计2025年将有一次降息，甚至可能进行第二次降息，下一次降息可能会在7月或9月进行。新美联储通讯社：或放缓甚至暂停缩表华尔街见闻文章称，有“新美联储通讯社”的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos表示，美联储1月会议纪要显示，官员们在上个月的会议上讨论了是否放缓或暂停其近6.8万亿美元资产组合的缩减，因为在未来几个月，他们面临着提高联邦债务上限所带来的复杂问题。Timiraos指出，与债务上限相关的市场动态，可能导致美联储负债端的储备金（reserves）出现大幅波动。自2022年年中以来，美联储一直在缩减其资产负债表，以逆转新冠疫情期间的宽松货币政策QE。不过，缩表过程最终将耗尽银行系统的储备金，而美联储官员们目前尚不确定这一过程要持续多久。他指出，美国财政部将如何管理其现金余额所引发的货币市场波动，可能会使美联储确定正确的储备平衡的能力复杂化。因此，根据会议纪要，官员们在1月会议上认为，“考虑暂停或放缓资产负债表的缩减，直到债务上限问题得到解决可能是合适的”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OEF":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPY":1,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"essenList":[],"allBottom":false,"essenBottom":true}