德商银行：鲍威尔可能暗示持更加谨慎态度 - 老虎社区

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  ·2024-12-19
  反正加息也涨，降息变着法儿的涨，那边的市场已经已经脱离了所谓的经济理论，去看庄家心情
  新美联储通讯社：美联储超低利率时代结束了么？
  美国到底离中性利率多远，这将是决定美联储未来政策走向的核心问题。据Nick Timiraos最新文章，有分析认为，如果官员们得出结论认为中性利率已经上升，那么美联储可能会在相当长的一段时间内停止降息。
  新美联储通讯社：美联储超低利率时代结束了么？
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Timiraos最新文章，有分析认为，如果官员们得出结论认为中性利率已经上升，那么美联储可能会在相当长的一段时间内停止降息。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>美国到底离中性利率多远，这将是决定美联储未来政策走向的核心问题。据Nick Timiraos最新文章，有分析认为，如果官员们得出结论认为中性利率已经上升，那么美联储可能会在相当长的一段时间内停止降息。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周三美联储如期降息，但释放暂停降息信号，鲍威尔还表示目前已经显著接近中性利率。<strong>美国到底离中性利率多远，这将是决定美联储未来政策走向的核心问题，而后疫情时代更高的中性利率预测也意味着超低利率时代的终结。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街日报记者、“新美联储通讯社” Nick Timiraos最新文章表示，鲍威尔对中性利率的表态提出了一个此前并不重要，但现在却十分关键的问题：<strong>在后疫情时代的经济中，到底什么是“中性”？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中性利率是指在经济充分就业和通胀稳定的情况下的利率水平，这个利率无法直接观察，而是从经济状态中推断出来。如果借贷和消费强劲，价格压力上升，当前利率可能低于中性利率。反之，如果借贷和消费疲软，通胀下降，利率可能高于中性利率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今年早些时候，关于中性利率水平的争论并不特别重要，因为几乎所有美联储官员都认为利率处于限制性水平。但现在这个问题成为焦点，因为美联储已将利率降低了整整一个百分点，而且经济似乎状况良好。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Timiraos表示，就像船长在船接近滑道时试图避免撞上码头一样，如果央行行长认为由于中性利率上升，他们可能更接近最终目的地，他们可能会在降息时变得更加谨慎。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔周三表示，“我们不知道它到底在哪里，但……我们可以肯定的是，现在离它更近了100个基点……<strong>从现在开始，这是一个新阶段，我们将对进一步降息持谨慎态度。</strong>”</p><h2 id=\"id_51714160\">中性利率可能比疫情前高得多</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2008年金融危机后，经济学家和美联储政策制定者稳步下调了对中性利率的估计。持续数年的超低利率和货币刺激措施并没有给经济带来多大提振，一些经济学家认为，由于劳动力老龄化带来的人口逆风和新投资需求长期不足，低利率将持续下去。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但疫情后，随着一系列财政刺激措施使经济恢复到新的平衡状态，过去几年中性利率有所上升。在过去的一年里，美联储官员对中性利率的估计逐渐上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Timiraos称，美联储官员每个季度都会预测长期利率水平，这实际上是他们对中性利率的估计。中值预测从 2012 年的4.25%下降到2019年的2.5%，直到2023年一直保持在该水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但中性利率在今年的所有四个季度预测中都稳步上升——<strong>周三发布的最新预测为3%，19 位官员中有 8 位的估计值高于 3%，</strong>而在2023 年 6 月，只有两位官员认为中性利率高于 3%。最新降息后，目前基准联邦基金利率在 4.3% 左右。</p><h2 id=\"id_1048087676\">如果中性利率已上上升，美联储可能在相当长一段时间里暂停降息</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Timiraos表示，鲍威尔对于使用精确的中性利率估计来指导政策持怀疑态度，他认为官员们只能通过观察其对经济的影响来了解中性利率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔前高级顾问乔恩·福斯特指出，这导致的结果是，即使中性利率有所上升，美联储可能也无法及时获得明确的证据来调整政策，他认为中性利率可能在2.5%到4%之间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>实际上，在最近的降息决策之前，一些美联储官员对于基于可能不准确的中性利率概念进一步降息表示担忧。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">达拉斯联储主席洛里·洛根警告说，如果降息过度，可能会导致通胀重新加速，迫使美联储不得不提高利率。她强调，最近的数据显示中性利率可能已经上升，并且接近当前的联邦基金利率水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Timiraos文章指出，经济在利率上升的情况下依然强劲，可能只是反映了一些暂时性因素，如移民增加或企业和家庭在疫情期间锁定的低利率。然而，随着时间的推移，如果经济持续增长，政策制定者可能会开始认为经济已经进入了一个中性利率更高的新常态。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">私募股权管理公司凯雷集团的首席经济学家Jason Thomas认为，劳动生产率的提高表明经济已经与全球金融危机后十年的情况有所不同，未来几年，投资者和中央银行家可能会认识到更高的利率不仅仅是美联储快速加息的结果，而是更广泛的结构性力量的反映。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Thomas说，<strong>如果官员们得出结论认为中性利率已经上升，那么美联储可能会在相当长的一段时间内停止降息。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n新美联储通讯社：美联储超低利率时代结束了么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-19 11:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3737328><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国到底离中性利率多远，这将是决定美联储未来政策走向的核心问题。据Nick Timiraos最新文章，有分析认为，如果官员们得出结论认为中性利率已经上升，那么美联储可能会在相当长的一段时间内停止降息。周三美联储如期降息，但释放暂停降息信号，鲍威尔还表示目前已经显著接近中性利率。美国到底离中性利率多远，这将是决定美联储未来政策走向的核心问题，而后疫情时代更高的中性利率预测也意味着超低利率时代的终结。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3737328\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b42f7462aad2fc073c8cc2ac7e83134","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEX":"标普100","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3737328","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2492411194","content_text":"美国到底离中性利率多远，这将是决定美联储未来政策走向的核心问题。据Nick Timiraos最新文章，有分析认为，如果官员们得出结论认为中性利率已经上升，那么美联储可能会在相当长的一段时间内停止降息。周三美联储如期降息，但释放暂停降息信号，鲍威尔还表示目前已经显著接近中性利率。美国到底离中性利率多远，这将是决定美联储未来政策走向的核心问题，而后疫情时代更高的中性利率预测也意味着超低利率时代的终结。华尔街日报记者、“新美联储通讯社” Nick Timiraos最新文章表示，鲍威尔对中性利率的表态提出了一个此前并不重要，但现在却十分关键的问题：在后疫情时代的经济中，到底什么是“中性”？中性利率是指在经济充分就业和通胀稳定的情况下的利率水平，这个利率无法直接观察，而是从经济状态中推断出来。如果借贷和消费强劲，价格压力上升，当前利率可能低于中性利率。反之，如果借贷和消费疲软，通胀下降，利率可能高于中性利率。今年早些时候，关于中性利率水平的争论并不特别重要，因为几乎所有美联储官员都认为利率处于限制性水平。但现在这个问题成为焦点，因为美联储已将利率降低了整整一个百分点，而且经济似乎状况良好。Timiraos表示，就像船长在船接近滑道时试图避免撞上码头一样，如果央行行长认为由于中性利率上升，他们可能更接近最终目的地，他们可能会在降息时变得更加谨慎。鲍威尔周三表示，“我们不知道它到底在哪里，但……我们可以肯定的是，现在离它更近了100个基点……从现在开始，这是一个新阶段，我们将对进一步降息持谨慎态度。”中性利率可能比疫情前高得多2008年金融危机后，经济学家和美联储政策制定者稳步下调了对中性利率的估计。持续数年的超低利率和货币刺激措施并没有给经济带来多大提振，一些经济学家认为，由于劳动力老龄化带来的人口逆风和新投资需求长期不足，低利率将持续下去。但疫情后，随着一系列财政刺激措施使经济恢复到新的平衡状态，过去几年中性利率有所上升。在过去的一年里，美联储官员对中性利率的估计逐渐上升。Timiraos称，美联储官员每个季度都会预测长期利率水平，这实际上是他们对中性利率的估计。中值预测从 2012 年的4.25%下降到2019年的2.5%，直到2023年一直保持在该水平。但中性利率在今年的所有四个季度预测中都稳步上升——周三发布的最新预测为3%，19 位官员中有 8 位的估计值高于 3%，而在2023 年 6 月，只有两位官员认为中性利率高于 3%。最新降息后，目前基准联邦基金利率在 4.3% 左右。如果中性利率已上上升，美联储可能在相当长一段时间里暂停降息Timiraos表示，鲍威尔对于使用精确的中性利率估计来指导政策持怀疑态度，他认为官员们只能通过观察其对经济的影响来了解中性利率。鲍威尔前高级顾问乔恩·福斯特指出，这导致的结果是，即使中性利率有所上升，美联储可能也无法及时获得明确的证据来调整政策，他认为中性利率可能在2.5%到4%之间。实际上，在最近的降息决策之前，一些美联储官员对于基于可能不准确的中性利率概念进一步降息表示担忧。达拉斯联储主席洛里·洛根警告说，如果降息过度，可能会导致通胀重新加速，迫使美联储不得不提高利率。她强调，最近的数据显示中性利率可能已经上升，并且接近当前的联邦基金利率水平。Timiraos文章指出，经济在利率上升的情况下依然强劲，可能只是反映了一些暂时性因素，如移民增加或企业和家庭在疫情期间锁定的低利率。然而，随着时间的推移，如果经济持续增长，政策制定者可能会开始认为经济已经进入了一个中性利率更高的新常态。私募股权管理公司凯雷集团的首席经济学家Jason Thomas认为，劳动生产率的提高表明经济已经与全球金融危机后十年的情况有所不同，未来几年，投资者和中央银行家可能会认识到更高的利率不仅仅是美联储快速加息的结果，而是更广泛的结构性力量的反映。Thomas说，如果官员们得出结论认为中性利率已经上升，那么美联储可能会在相当长的一段时间内停止降息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OEX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPY":1,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"OEF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"essenList":[],"allBottom":false,"essenBottom":true}