US stocks rose, and LME copper fell to $8,000 +. China stocks fell again, with Alibaba falling 6% and KE Holdings Inc. falling 14%.
Common prosperity must be equal to ”killing the rich and helping the poor"? Why are Chinese stocks still falling?
Since the Spring Festival this year, China Stocks has started a downward mode, and it has been almost half a year since today. Every time there is a slight signal of stabilization, more bad news will come one after another. The quarterly report is good, and it will fall; The quarterly report is not good, and it will fall more. Just like last year's epidemic, no one thought that US stocks had emerged from the strongest bull market, and this year's Chinese stocks would fall sharply when the global epidemic was under control. No one looks at the valuation anymore, and the frequency of analysts writing reports in China Stock has also decreased at present, the difference between the target price and the actual price of analysts is the largest in the history of China Stock. There is nothing but pessimism.
From the perspective of news events, the five major events encountered by China Stocks this year are
Time |
Events |
March 22 |
Decision on Amending the "Implementation Regulations of the Tobacco Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China" |
March 22 |
Archegos funds with heavy positions in Chinese stocks began to liquidate |
July 2 |
Initiate a network security review of Didi |
July 5 |
Start a network security review for "Full Truck Alliance", and "Kanzhun Limited" |
July 23 |
The "Double Reduction" Document of the General Office of the State Council Landed |
Of course, this is only a small part of the numerous news listed above, but it is the five major events that lead to the sharp drop of individual stocks caused by direct news/events and lead to the collapse of the whole China stocks. Of course, the latest spirit of "common prosperity" and Tencent's help of RMB 50 billion have pushed the capital market further into the abyss.
Does "common prosperity" necessarily mean "killing the rich and helping the poor"? Could it be over-interpretation?
From the text of the speech, the speech repeats again that "some people are allowed to get rich first, and help the poor to be rich", and at the same time emphasizes again that "it is not uniform egalitarianism". If we look at the experience of the United States, behind "common prosperity", it is more the security system for low-income people than the knife for high-income people. Trump's tax cut plan is very generous to the rich, and Biden has not made up his mind to raise taxes on the rich to this day. Therefore, from the experience of the United States, the rich and the poor are not antagonistic, and it is very likely that behind the "common prosperity", there is only a little more to improve the low-income security component.
Of course, another question is how to "help the poor" by "not killing the rich". American experience tells us that the best way for the government to achieve social balance is not to kill the rich and help the poor, but to print money. Only printing money is the way for both the "rich and poor" classes not to offend. Central banks all over the world are printing money, but inflation has not risen (except for short-term inflation caused by COVID-19). If necessary, printing money can be intensified. Originally, after printing money, the increased liquidity will not be directly sent to low-income people like the United States. Now we can change our thinking.
Back to China Stocks, why are they still falling?
From July 1st this year, according to the decline ranking, KWEB of China Index (black) fell by 36%, followed by Alibaba (blue) and Tencent (orange) fell by 28%, Hong Kong stocks (pink) fell by 15%, and A shares (yellow) fell by 7%. This decline clearly shows that foreign capital is withdrawing from China. China with the highest proportion of foreign capital has the largest decline, while A shares with the lowest proportion of foreign capital have the lowest decline. The decline of Alibaba and Tencent is slightly better than that of China Index, which shows that foreign capital is still willing to stay in some Chinese positions with higher assurance.
However, since August, the decline of Alibaba and Tencent has obviously accelerated. Alibaba's decline has surpassed KWEB's, while Tencent's decline is almost the same as KWEB's. Because Alibaba and Tencent are stocks that foreign long-term funds are willing to guard, once these two stocks are sold off, it also shows that foreign capital is accelerating its departure.
Judging from the news on CNBC, the news is light every day, and TV reporters have a question over and over again-"Is China still investible?". It is impossible for such an atmosphere of public opinion not to have an impact on American investors.
Looking ahead, if China Stocks or Hong Kong Technology wants to stabilize, the stock prices of Alibaba and Tencent are the beacon, so they must be stabilized first. If even Alibaba and Tencent are not worth an American investment, what is worth investing in?