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zxs
zxs
·
03-07
真能幻想，今年初我就从去年京东外卖每天很多单变为0了，为什么？我是来撸羊毛的，今年补贴少了，哪我还用它做什么 ，还梦想30% ，今年下滑到百分之几差不多，明年归零了
血亏466亿，京东亏的到底值不值？
3月5日晚，京东交出了2025年的最终成绩单。其中，有组数据引发了广泛的关注和讨论：2025年，京东集团包括外卖在内的新业务，经营利润亏损达466.4亿元。不管怎么说，京东2025年净利润大跌这事儿，板上钉钉。这得看折腾前，京东面临的问题。换句话说，京东面临的整个局面，就是温水煮青蛙。到目前京东集团整体还是盈利的。京东自己也没慌，反而摩拳擦掌，野心勃勃，东哥更是放出豪言，要在2026年，把京东外卖的市场份额做到30%。
血亏466亿，京东亏的到底值不值？
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zxs
zxs
·
2025-06-20
Replying to
@zxs
:这次白银的上涨肯定超过阶段性黄金上涨📈，配角换位主角，不信大家慢慢看，实际最近很多年以来，白银的每年工业消费量都大于生产量，只不过靠消耗伦敦库存弥补缺口，这次这个供需大利多将会被市场关注！//
@zxs
: 此次白银上涨难得小虎关注到了，其实我较早已经介入白银期权，后来又买入白银相关股票。 原因就是这次行情将复制20年的白银行情，这次黄金行情接近尾声而降息周期尚未正式大幅度开始的环境铸就的机会，核心是大资金看好且已经布局，从上一次黄金大调整后白银刷新修复就已经体现出来了。 未来伦敦的库存你会看到持续性的下降，美联储下半年的降息将会成为行情加速助推器！
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zxs
zxs
·
2025-06-20
此次白银上涨难得小虎关注到了，其实我较早已经介入白银期权，后来又买入白银相关股票。 原因就是这次行情将复制20年的白银行情，这次黄金行情接近尾声而降息周期尚未正式大幅度开始的环境铸就的机会，核心是大资金看好且已经布局，从上一次黄金大调整后白银刷新修复就已经体现出来了。 未来伦敦的库存你会看到持续性的下降，美联储下半年的降息将会成为行情加速助推器！
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zxs
zxs
·
2025-06-16
$WTI原油主连 2507(CLmain)$
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zxs
zxs
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2025-04-18
复活节彩蛋大作战
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zxs
zxs
·
2025-04-17
$霸王茶姬(CHA)$
期待66美元封神
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zxs
zxs
·
2025-04-17
66美元，参与竞猜
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:[],"title":"","htmlText":"真能幻想，今年初我就从去年京东外卖每天很多单变为0了，为什么？我是来撸羊毛的，今年补贴少了，哪我还用它做什么 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>交出了2025年的最终成绩单。其中，有组数据引发了广泛的关注和讨论：</p><p>2025年，京东集团包括外卖在内的新业务，经营利润亏损达466.4亿元。</p><p>百亿级别的亏损，直接导致其全年<span>净利润</span>，同比暴跌52.7%，由2024年的414亿元，降至196亿元。</p><p>前段时间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>发了业绩预告，受外卖业务拖累，公司2025年净利润预计亏损233亿至243亿元。</p><p>要知道，2024年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>还赚了358亿，一来一回，近600亿的利润凭空蒸发。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>的全年数据虽然还没出来，但从前三季度能看出，外卖业务的拖累，大概率也是跑不了的。</p><p>京东、美团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里</a>，利润损失加起来至少是千亿级别。</p><p>不得不说，这场大战的代价还是太昂贵了。</p><p>京东这份财报出来后，市场的声音可以说是冰火两重天。</p><p>有极度悲观的，比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>，连夜写了篇研报，标题直接就叫《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600303\">曙光</a>未现》，认为京东的新业务，严重拖累了公司的财务情况。</p><p>记得上一次京东发财报，摩根士丹利也写了一篇长达35页的看空报告，叫《凛冬将至》。</p><p>还有摆出营收增长13%的数据，说成绩亮眼的。</p><p>总之看空、挽尊，各有各的说法。</p><p>不管怎么说，京东2025年净利润大跌这事儿，板上钉钉。单说数据，肯定不好看，不过大家可能忽略了一个关键问题，就是：</p><p>这笔亏损，亏的到底值不值？</p><p>先说我的看法，放到其他企业身上，真不好说，但在京东这：</p><p>绝对值。</p><p>甚至再多亏点也值。</p><p>为什么这么说？</p><p>我们知道从去年开始，京东花里胡哨搞了很多新业务，什么酒旅、咖啡、养车、七鲜小厨，外卖也只是其中一块，可以说相当能“折腾”。</p><p>问题是，为啥要折腾？</p><p>这得看折腾前，京东面临的问题。</p><p>一方面，京东的核心零售业务增速开始放缓，叠加国补退潮，放缓的趋势还在进一步放大。</p><p>另一方面，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>在内，新势力电商崛起，正不断挑战京东的地位。同时，美团也在即时零售领域，蚕食着京东的生存空间。</p><p>更要命的是，京东还没办法反击。</p><p>命根子数码3C 消费 ，本来就是个低频场景，结果友商们都在玩高频场景，高频打低频，一打一个准。加上京东的业务逻辑，太重了，只深耕少数几个领域。</p><p>比如 物流 ，虽然做得很好，形成了护城河，但只靠一个物流，在群狼环绕的时刻，明显是不够的。</p><p>换句话说，京东面临的整个局面，就是温水煮青蛙。</p><p>不放手一搏，就是等着蛋糕被吃光。</p><p>明白了这个问题，我们再来看值不值的问题。根据财报数据和行业测算，这466亿的亏损，大约可以拆解为三块：</p><p>1、外卖补贴与骑手保障，约占55%；</p><p>2、海外物流基建与收购，约占25%；</p><p>3、下沉市场与即时零售获客，约占20%。</p><p>先说花了最多钱的外卖。</p><p>从数据上看，目前京东外卖分得了15%的外卖市场份额，但这不是关键，关键是通过外卖业务京东获得了：</p><p>2.4亿高频用户。</p><p>这是一种打开逻辑的改变。</p><p>之前， 消费者 打开京东APP，更多可能是要买冰箱，换手机了，现在通过这种高频场景的嵌入，你可能点外卖要开京东，买菜要打开京东。</p><p>在这个过程中，用户很容易形成平台使用习惯，进而盘活大局。</p><p>事实证明，这种“高频带低频”的模式，就是存量时代电商获取流量的高效方式。</p><p>再看海外物流基建与收购。</p><p>其实这都没什么好讲的，京东2025年在海外搞收购，在德国、波兰和 东南亚 新建了数十个自动化海外仓。</p><p>如今，中国供应链出海已成定局，京东海外仓的亏损，本质上是在海外复制一个“ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">京东物流</a> ”，这是对传统优势的放大，也是对国内业务风险的分散。</p><p>况且基建型是有<span>资产</span>留存的，不是打了水漂。</p><p>最后下沉市场与即时零售获客，包括一些新供应体系的搭建，门店扩张补贴动作等，本质也是为京东做全品类，实现高频打开场景服务的。</p><p>现在提到京东，大部分人不再像之前那样，第一想法是卖手机、卖家电的电商平台，你会想起来，京东还搞外卖，还做 超市 ，还有自营的 餐饮 ......</p><p>品牌印象，已经悄悄发生了改变。</p><p>总之，京东花了400多亿，换来了一张切入高频战场的门票，用经营利润亏损，得到反击的机会，给大船掉头，争取到了宝贵的时间。</p><p>到目前京东集团整体还是盈利的。</p><p>2025年，核心零售业务经营利润514亿元，同比增长25.1%，经营利润率从4.0%提升到4.6%，创了历史新高。</p><p>这意味着京东基本盘依旧稳健，每年的造血规模，可以从容覆盖掉新业务的投入。</p><p>再不济，京东账上还躺着 2254亿元的现金及等价物。</p><p>400多亿，还谈不上伤筋动骨。</p><p>这种情况下，值不值的问题，交给大家去判断。</p><p>接下来，京东面临的问题，可能更多还是如果进一步，把外卖为代表的全品类业务做强。美团、阿里在前，京东现在是双线作战。</p><p>另外，京东接下来还会经历 1-2 年的利润真空期，对投资者的忍耐力也是一种考验。</p><p>今天（3月6日），财报发布的第二天，京东系港股迎来一波集体爆发， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a> 大涨近10%，刚上市的 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07618\">京东工业</a> 涨6%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">京东健康</a> 小涨2%，最猛的是京东物流，涨幅接近23%。</p><p>至少从目前表现来看，市场对这份成绩是满意的。</p><p>京东自己也没慌，反而摩拳擦掌，野心勃勃，东哥更是放出豪言，要在2026年，把京东外卖的市场份额做到30%。</p><p>实际上，在今年已经过去的几个月里，京东没消停，宣布未来三年砸200亿搞京东超市业务；与全球物流巨头DHL Group合作，推动“欧洲版京东”Joybuy的上线日程；</p><p>东哥还自掏腰包50亿，准备杀入游艇赛道.....</p><p>一切的一切证明，京东在折腾这条路上，已经越走越远。未来，至少这几年，大概率将是不惜血本，不会停歇。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>血亏466亿，京东亏的到底值不值？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n血亏466亿，京东亏的到底值不值？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-06 18:54 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260306190042a6aab9dd&s=b><strong>北大纵横</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月5日晚，京东交出了2025年的最终成绩单。其中，有组数据引发了广泛的关注和讨论：2025年，京东集团包括外卖在内的新业务，经营利润亏损达466.4亿元。百亿级别的亏损，直接导致其全年净利润，同比暴跌52.7%，由2024年的414亿元，降至196亿元。前段时间，美团发了业绩预告，受外卖业务拖累，公司2025年净利润预计亏损233亿至243亿元。要知道，2024年美团还赚了358亿，一来一回，近...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260306190042a6aab9dd&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89618":"京东集团-SWR","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","LU0348805143.USD":"ALLIANZ ENHANCED ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0456827905.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A (acc) SGD","LU0149721374.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0231483743.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - ALL CHINA SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1719994722.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) 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INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260306190042a6aab9dd&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2617568012","content_text":"3月5日晚，京东交出了2025年的最终成绩单。其中，有组数据引发了广泛的关注和讨论：2025年，京东集团包括外卖在内的新业务，经营利润亏损达466.4亿元。百亿级别的亏损，直接导致其全年净利润，同比暴跌52.7%，由2024年的414亿元，降至196亿元。前段时间，美团发了业绩预告，受外卖业务拖累，公司2025年净利润预计亏损233亿至243亿元。要知道，2024年美团还赚了358亿，一来一回，近600亿的利润凭空蒸发。阿里的全年数据虽然还没出来，但从前三季度能看出，外卖业务的拖累，大概率也是跑不了的。京东、美团、阿里，利润损失加起来至少是千亿级别。不得不说，这场大战的代价还是太昂贵了。京东这份财报出来后，市场的声音可以说是冰火两重天。有极度悲观的，比如摩根士丹利，连夜写了篇研报，标题直接就叫《曙光未现》，认为京东的新业务，严重拖累了公司的财务情况。记得上一次京东发财报，摩根士丹利也写了一篇长达35页的看空报告，叫《凛冬将至》。还有摆出营收增长13%的数据，说成绩亮眼的。总之看空、挽尊，各有各的说法。不管怎么说，京东2025年净利润大跌这事儿，板上钉钉。单说数据，肯定不好看，不过大家可能忽略了一个关键问题，就是：这笔亏损，亏的到底值不值？先说我的看法，放到其他企业身上，真不好说，但在京东这：绝对值。甚至再多亏点也值。为什么这么说？我们知道从去年开始，京东花里胡哨搞了很多新业务，什么酒旅、咖啡、养车、七鲜小厨，外卖也只是其中一块，可以说相当能“折腾”。问题是，为啥要折腾？这得看折腾前，京东面临的问题。一方面，京东的核心零售业务增速开始放缓，叠加国补退潮，放缓的趋势还在进一步放大。另一方面，包括拼多多在内，新势力电商崛起，正不断挑战京东的地位。同时，美团也在即时零售领域，蚕食着京东的生存空间。更要命的是，京东还没办法反击。命根子数码3C 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