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T111240
T111240
·
2025-12-25
瑞银都自己干死自己了,还评别人[捂脸]
瑞银重磅看空特斯拉!Q4交付预降16%,目标价仅247美元,却暗藏两大催化剂?
瑞银最新研报给特斯拉泼了一盆冷水:给予“卖出”评级,目标价仅247美元,并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆,同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%,低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出,特斯拉短期面临交付压力,但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。整体来看,瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆,同比下降9%;2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆,远低于市场预期的184万辆。
瑞银重磅看空特斯拉!Q4交付预降16%,目标价仅247美元,却暗藏两大催化剂?
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T111240
T111240
·
2025-12-11
记住了,他做空特斯拉亏了上百亿美元
比尔·盖茨警示AI泡沫:部分高估值公司或难逃“超级竞争”淘汰赛
比尔·盖茨在近期接受CNBC专访时,就人工智能行业估值问题发表了独到见解。他直言不讳地指出,当前部分AI企业估值已脱离合理区间,这类公司在即将到来的"白热化竞争"中可能遭遇重大挫折,建议投资者审慎评估市场风险。"盖茨强调,当前行业估值体系存在明显扭曲现象,某些公司的资本定价已远超其实际价值支撑。"盖茨特别强调,投资者应区分技术前景与公司估值,避免将两者混为一谈。
比尔·盖茨警示AI泡沫:部分高估值公司或难逃“超级竞争”淘汰赛
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T111240
T111240
·
2025-11-28
他就是用价格战最多的人,说这话有点恶心。
美团王兴:外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值,不可持续
11月28日晚,在美团第三季度财报电话会上,美团CEO王兴表示,“我们重申在过去两个季度阐明的立场,外卖价格战是低质低价的‘内卷式’竞争,我们坚决反对。半年来的市场结果已经充分证明:外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值,不可持续。”他表示,美团有信心捍卫即时零售的市场地位,创造真正的长期价值。王兴提到,近期美团餐饮外卖订单市占稳步回升。美团继续保持在中高价订单市场GTV的领先地位,美团在实付超过15元的订单有2/3以上的份额,实付超过30元以上的订单有70%以上的份额。(第一财经记者 陆涵之)
美团王兴:外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值,不可持续
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T111240
T111240
·
2025-11-22
跌的时候称为“AI机器人公司",市场涨的时侯他死趴趴熊的
自驾与机器人出租车积极进展难敌市场避险情绪升温,特斯拉股价连日下跌
智通财经APP获悉,周五,特斯拉股价收低,盘中一度上涨的走势未能延续。市场对机器人出租车业务的期待,与近期对AI投资泡沫的担忧形成拉锯,使股价走势承压。尽管市场担忧升温,特斯拉在自动驾驶和机器人出租车布局方面仍取得积极进展。他指出,特斯拉管理层预计到2025年底可将机器人出租车服务扩展至约8至10个大都市区域,并强调FSD的快速迭代将成为业务增长的关键驱动力。与此同时,特斯拉在美部分地区面临产品安全诉讼有新情况。
自驾与机器人出租车积极进展难敌市场避险情绪升温,特斯拉股价连日下跌
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T111240
T111240
·
2025-11-20
SpaceX换字节,鬼佬换不[开心]
字节跳动仍受资本追捧,估值升至4800亿美元
今日资本近日通过股权拍卖,以约4800亿美元估值从字节跳动早期投资方中银集团投资有限公司收购部分股权,成交金额达3亿美元,成为该公司年内最大规模的二级市场交易之一。知情人士称,竞价过程激烈,反映出资本市场对字节跳动在AI技术布局与全球业务拓展方面的持续看好。
字节跳动仍受资本追捧,估值升至4800亿美元
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T111240
T111240
·
2025-11-16
搞了40年这个鸟样,会讲不会做
图灵奖得主LeCun最后警告Meta!我搞了40年AI,大模型是死路
新智元报道编辑:KingHZ图灵奖得主LeCun与Meta分道扬镳!今年夏天,年仅28岁的Alexandr Wang成为Meta的首席AI官,让这位初出茅庐的大语言模型狂热者成了LeCun的上司。媒体不断有消息放出,Meta要对其AI组织结构动刀。这已经是Meta在半年之内第四次调整AI业务了。现在,LeCun在Meta好像“忍无可忍”,终于要离职了。LeCun离开Meta,或为了世界模型此前报道,他正在与业内同行商议创办公司、寻找投资,组建专注世界模型的团队。
图灵奖得主LeCun最后警告Meta!我搞了40年AI,大模型是死路
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T111240
T111240
·
2025-08-30
不是所有看轻人都是扎克
OpenAI ChatGPT联合创始人赵圣嘉加入Meta几天内就威胁辞职
OpenAI ChatGPT联合创始人赵圣嘉加入Meta几天内就威胁辞职
OpenAI ChatGPT联合创始人赵圣嘉加入Meta几天内就威胁辞职
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T111240
·
2025-02-24
他要是下几亿美金空单我就信了
特斯拉股价面临50%跌幅风险?马斯克曾经的忠实信徒详解四大危机
现在,他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。在大选后最初的飙升之后,特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%,自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来,特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。尽管投资者最初热情高涨,但该行表示,特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元,这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。
特斯拉股价面临50%跌幅风险?马斯克曾经的忠实信徒详解四大危机
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T111240
·
2025-02-20
为什么国内的互联网企业就喜欢卷这些应用程序?补贴入场,大家亏损,然后再涨价,一点新的创造力都没?投这些企业的意义是什么?
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T111240
T111240
·
2025-02-19
SA B 20年前说到现在
增长放缓,投资者过于乐观,亚马逊隐忧频现!
虽然 SMA 显示该股仍存在长期看涨势头,但亚马逊的短期走势可能令人担忧,因为 EMA 即将出现看跌交叉,而布林带明确证实上升趋势已经结束。总体而言,该指引较弱,因为预计收入增长将放缓,且营业收入增长也将大幅减弱。如上所述,目前,收入增长略低于平均水平,并处于令人担忧的下行趋势。此外,指引显示,2025 年第一季度的增长将进一步放缓,并将处于多年来的低点。尽管如此,与同行相比,亚马逊的估值可能被高估。
增长放缓,投资者过于乐观,亚马逊隐忧频现!
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","listText":"瑞银都自己干死自己了,还评别人[捂脸] ","text":"瑞银都自己干死自己了,还评别人[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/514853068493312","repostId":"2594625231","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2594625231","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1766656856,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2594625231?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-25 18:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"瑞银重磅看空特斯拉!Q4交付预降16%,目标价仅247美元,却暗藏两大催化剂?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2594625231","media":"调研纪要杂货铺","summary":"瑞银最新研报给特斯拉泼了一盆冷水:给予“卖出”评级,目标价仅247美元,并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆,同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%,低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出,特斯拉短期面临交付压力,但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。整体来看,瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆,同比下降9%;2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆,远低于市场预期的184万辆。","content":"<html><body><article><p>瑞银最新研报给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA.O)泼了一盆冷水:给予“卖出”评级,目标价仅247美元(当前股价481.2美元,潜在跌幅48.7%),并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆,同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%,低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出,特斯拉短期面临交付压力,但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。</p><p><strong>��</strong>核心预测:Q4交付承压,2025年销量同比降9%</p><p>瑞银下调Q4交付预期至41.5万辆,核心原因是主要市场需求分化:</p><p>•<strong>美国市场拖累显著</strong>:9月底7500美元电动车税收抵免到期,导致需求提前透支,Q4美国销量预计环比暴跌超35%、同比降25%,可能创下多年来单季度销量新低;尽管特斯拉推出0%年<span>利率</span>贷款、FSD转让等优惠政策,但新低价车型的增量需求仅部分抵消下滑;</p><p>•<strong>欧洲市场环比回暖</strong>:前两个月交付量环比增长31%,预计全季度交付约7万辆,但同比仍降15%;挪威因增值税豁免政策调整,出现需求提前释放现象;</p><p>•<strong>中国市场温和回升</strong>:预计环比增长中低个位数,但同比仍降10%;前两个月零售销量环比仅增1%,不过12月作为传统销售旺季,交付量有望显著提升,Model Y长续航版需求旺盛,订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月;</p><p>•<strong>其他市场波动</strong>:土耳其因税收优惠取消,Q4交付近乎停滞;韩国市场虽同比增长显著,但环比仍有下滑。</p><p>整体来看,瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆,同比下降9%;2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆,远低于市场预期的184万辆。</p><p><strong>��</strong>财务展望:利润率持续承压,估值偏高</p><p>瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度:</p><p>•预计2025年稀释后<span>每股收益</span>(EPS)为1.53美元,2026年微增至1.58美元,低于市场共识;</p><p>•利润率持续收窄:2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%,2026年进一步降至5.7%,较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑;</p><p>•估值吸引力不足:当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平,瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。</p><p><strong>️</strong>主要风险与潜在机遇</p><p><strong>下行风险</strong></p><p>1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期;</p><p>2.成本控制效果不佳,供应链风险加剧;</p><p>3.产能扩张进度滞后,市场竞争白热化;</p><p>4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。</p><p><strong>上行催化剂</strong></p><p>1.机器人出租车(Cybercab)推进:2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程(SOP),奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员;</p><p>2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地;</p><p>3.能源存储业务持续增长,2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh,环比增长6%。</p><p><strong>��</strong>区域市场动态:价格稳定,交付周期分化</p><p>•<strong>价格方面</strong>:11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳,中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%,欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调;</p><p>•<strong>交付周期</strong>:美国市场Model Y交付周期缩短至29天,中国市场则延长至39天,德国、法国等欧洲市场交付周期维持在50天以上,反映不同区域供需差异。</p><p><strong>��</strong>互动时间</p><p>你认为特斯拉Q4交付量能达到瑞银预测的41.5万辆吗?随着税收抵免退坡,美国市场需求会持续疲软吗?机器人出租车和Optimus机器人能否成为特斯拉股价的“救命稻草”?</p><p>欢迎在评论区留下你的观点~觉得这份深度解读有价值的话,别忘了转发给身边关注新能源和科技股的朋友,一起探讨特斯拉的短期压力与长期机遇!</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞银重磅看空特斯拉!Q4交付预降16%,目标价仅247美元,却暗藏两大催化剂?</title>\n<style 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Y长续航版需求旺盛,订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月;•其他市场波动:土耳其因税收优惠取消,Q4交付近乎停滞;韩国市场虽同比增长显著,但环比仍有下滑。整体来看,瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆,同比下降9%;2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆,远低于市场预期的184万辆。��财务展望:利润率持续承压,估值偏高瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度:•预计2025年稀释后每股收益(EPS)为1.53美元,2026年微增至1.58美元,低于市场共识;•利润率持续收窄:2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%,2026年进一步降至5.7%,较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑;•估值吸引力不足:当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平,瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。️主要风险与潜在机遇下行风险1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期;2.成本控制效果不佳,供应链风险加剧;3.产能扩张进度滞后,市场竞争白热化;4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。上行催化剂1.机器人出租车(Cybercab)推进:2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程(SOP),奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员;2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地;3.能源存储业务持续增长,2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh,环比增长6%。��区域市场动态:价格稳定,交付周期分化•价格方面:11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳,中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%,欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调;•交付周期:美国市场Model Y交付周期缩短至29天,中国市场则延长至39天,德国、法国等欧洲市场交付周期维持在50天以上,反映不同区域供需差异。��互动时间你认为特斯拉Q4交付量能达到瑞银预测的41.5万辆吗?随着税收抵免退坡,美国市场需求会持续疲软吗?机器人出租车和Optimus机器人能否成为特斯拉股价的“救命稻草”?欢迎在评论区留下你的观点~觉得这份深度解读有价值的话,别忘了转发给身边关注新能源和科技股的朋友,一起探讨特斯拉的短期压力与长期机遇!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.98,"TSYW.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":509649668694776,"gmtCreate":1765464227040,"gmtModify":1765464229731,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519254194891755","idStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"记住了,他做空特斯拉亏了上百亿美元","listText":"记住了,他做空特斯拉亏了上百亿美元","text":"记住了,他做空特斯拉亏了上百亿美元","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/509649668694776","repostId":"2590560306","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2590560306","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1765436015,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2590560306?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-11 14:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"比尔·盖茨警示AI泡沫:部分高估值公司或难逃“超级竞争”淘汰赛","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2590560306","media":"ITBEAR科技资讯","summary":"比尔·盖茨在近期接受CNBC专访时,就人工智能行业估值问题发表了独到见解。他直言不讳地指出,当前部分AI企业估值已脱离合理区间,这类公司在即将到来的\"白热化竞争\"中可能遭遇重大挫折,建议投资者审慎评估市场风险。\"盖茨强调,当前行业估值体系存在明显扭曲现象,某些公司的资本定价已远超其实际价值支撑。\"盖茨特别强调,投资者应区分技术前景与公司估值,避免将两者混为一谈。","content":"<html><body><article><p>比尔·盖茨在近期接受CNBC专访时,就人工智能行业估值问题发表了独到见解。他直言不讳地指出,当前部分AI企业估值已脱离合理区间,这类公司在即将到来的\"白热化竞争\"中可能遭遇重大挫折,建议投资者审慎评估市场风险。</p><p>\"人工智能无疑是改变人类文明进程的关键技术,但这不意味着所有高估值企业都能存活。\"盖茨强调,当前行业估值体系存在明显扭曲现象,某些公司的资本定价已远超其实际价值支撑。他特别提到,当技术突破进入平台期后,市场将经历残酷的洗牌过程。</p><p>数据显示,部分科技企业的财务指标已出现显著偏离。以数据分析公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>和电动汽车巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>为例,其市盈率分别达到215倍和203倍,而同期<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数成分股的平均市盈率仅为25倍左右。这种悬殊的估值差异,正在引发市场对泡沫化的广泛讨论。</p><p>全球资本市场已开始显现调整迹象。11月全球主要股指集体回落,纳斯达克科技指数单月跌幅达5.6%。盖茨分析认为,这种波动本质上是对前期非理性繁荣的修正,特别是那些缺乏核心技术壁垒的企业,其估值泡沫破裂的风险正在累积。</p><p>尽管对短期风险保持警惕,这位科技巨头创始人仍对AI技术发展持坚定乐观态度。他详细列举了医疗诊断、个性化教育、精准农业等应用场景,认为这些领域将因AI技术产生革命性突破。\"当技术真正解决人类重大挑战时,其创造的价值将远超当前市场想象。\"盖茨特别强调,投资者应区分技术前景与公司估值,避免将两者混为一谈。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>比尔·盖茨警示AI泡沫:部分高估值公司或难逃“超级竞争”淘汰赛</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251211150948979c3f1d&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU2506951958.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU2298321311.HKD":"BGF CIRCULAR ECONOMY \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU2506952170.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (USDHDG) INC","LU1989764748.USD":"东方汇理环球颠覆性机遇A2 Acc","LU1121112475.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE 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SGD-H"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251211150948979c3f1d&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2590560306","content_text":"比尔·盖茨在近期接受CNBC专访时,就人工智能行业估值问题发表了独到见解。他直言不讳地指出,当前部分AI企业估值已脱离合理区间,这类公司在即将到来的\"白热化竞争\"中可能遭遇重大挫折,建议投资者审慎评估市场风险。\"人工智能无疑是改变人类文明进程的关键技术,但这不意味着所有高估值企业都能存活。\"盖茨强调,当前行业估值体系存在明显扭曲现象,某些公司的资本定价已远超其实际价值支撑。他特别提到,当技术突破进入平台期后,市场将经历残酷的洗牌过程。数据显示,部分科技企业的财务指标已出现显著偏离。以数据分析公司Palantir和电动汽车巨头特斯拉为例,其市盈率分别达到215倍和203倍,而同期标普500指数成分股的平均市盈率仅为25倍左右。这种悬殊的估值差异,正在引发市场对泡沫化的广泛讨论。全球资本市场已开始显现调整迹象。11月全球主要股指集体回落,纳斯达克科技指数单月跌幅达5.6%。盖茨分析认为,这种波动本质上是对前期非理性繁荣的修正,特别是那些缺乏核心技术壁垒的企业,其估值泡沫破裂的风险正在累积。尽管对短期风险保持警惕,这位科技巨头创始人仍对AI技术发展持坚定乐观态度。他详细列举了医疗诊断、个性化教育、精准农业等应用场景,认为这些领域将因AI技术产生革命性突破。\"当技术真正解决人类重大挑战时,其创造的价值将远超当前市场想象。\"盖茨特别强调,投资者应区分技术前景与公司估值,避免将两者混为一谈。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"TSYW.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":505088268247904,"gmtCreate":1764331417654,"gmtModify":1764331420425,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519254194891755","idStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"他就是用价格战最多的人,说这话有点恶心。","listText":"他就是用价格战最多的人,说这话有点恶心。","text":"他就是用价格战最多的人,说这话有点恶心。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/505088268247904","repostId":"2586011789","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2586011789","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1764329918,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2586011789?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-28 19:38","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美团王兴:外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值,不可持续","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2586011789","media":"第一财经","summary":"11月28日晚,在美团第三季度财报电话会上,美团CEO王兴表示,“我们重申在过去两个季度阐明的立场,外卖价格战是低质低价的‘内卷式’竞争,我们坚决反对。半年来的市场结果已经充分证明:外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值,不可持续。”他表示,美团有信心捍卫即时零售的市场地位,创造真正的长期价值。王兴提到,近期美团餐饮外卖订单市占稳步回升。美团继续保持在中高价订单市场GTV的领先地位,美团在实付超过15元的订单有2/3以上的份额,实付超过30元以上的订单有70%以上的份额。(第一财经记者 陆涵之)","content":"<div>\n<p>11月28日晚,在美团第三季度财报电话会上,美团CEO王兴表示,“我们重申在过去两个季度阐明的立场,外卖价格战是低质低价的‘内卷式’竞争,我们坚决反对。半年来的市场结果已经充分证明:外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值,不可持续。”他表示,美团有信心捍卫即时零售的市场地位,创造真正的长期价值。王兴提到,近期美团餐饮外卖订单市占稳步回升。美团继续保持在中高价订单市场GTV的领先地位,美团在实付超过15元的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202511281939159784bb18&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美团王兴:外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值,不可持续</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美团王兴:外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值,不可持续\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-28 19:38 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202511281939159784bb18&s=b><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>11月28日晚,在美团第三季度财报电话会上,美团CEO王兴表示,“我们重申在过去两个季度阐明的立场,外卖价格战是低质低价的‘内卷式’竞争,我们坚决反对。半年来的市场结果已经充分证明:外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值,不可持续。”他表示,美团有信心捍卫即时零售的市场地位,创造真正的长期价值。王兴提到,近期美团餐饮外卖订单市占稳步回升。美团继续保持在中高价订单市场GTV的领先地位,美团在实付超过15元的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202511281939159784bb18&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SG9999000327.SGD":"Schroder Asian Growth A Dis SGD","LU1734074674.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC FRANCHISE \"A\"(USD) ACC","LU2399975544.HKD":"ALLIANZ ALL CHINA EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2097828474.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC A","LU1323998911.USD":"BGF ASIAN MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0541502299.USD":"ALLSPRING EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"I\" (USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202511281939159784bb18&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2586011789","content_text":"11月28日晚,在美团第三季度财报电话会上,美团CEO王兴表示,“我们重申在过去两个季度阐明的立场,外卖价格战是低质低价的‘内卷式’竞争,我们坚决反对。半年来的市场结果已经充分证明:外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值,不可持续。”他表示,美团有信心捍卫即时零售的市场地位,创造真正的长期价值。王兴提到,近期美团餐饮外卖订单市占稳步回升。美团继续保持在中高价订单市场GTV的领先地位,美团在实付超过15元的订单有2/3以上的份额,实付超过30元以上的订单有70%以上的份额。(第一财经记者 陆涵之)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03690":1.5,"MPNGY":0.6,"HMTD.SI":0.6,"METmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502774035546600,"gmtCreate":1763775643137,"gmtModify":1763775645611,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519254194891755","idStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"跌的时候称为“AI机器人公司\",市场涨的时侯他死趴趴熊的","listText":"跌的时候称为“AI机器人公司\",市场涨的时侯他死趴趴熊的","text":"跌的时候称为“AI机器人公司\",市场涨的时侯他死趴趴熊的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502774035546600","repostId":"2585124479","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2585124479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1763770500,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2585124479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-22 08:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"自驾与机器人出租车积极进展难敌市场避险情绪升温,特斯拉股价连日下跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2585124479","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉,周五,特斯拉股价收低,盘中一度上涨的走势未能延续。市场对机器人出租车业务的期待,与近期对AI投资泡沫的担忧形成拉锯,使股价走势承压。尽管市场担忧升温,特斯拉在自动驾驶和机器人出租车布局方面仍取得积极进展。他指出,特斯拉管理层预计到2025年底可将机器人出租车服务扩展至约8至10个大都市区域,并强调FSD的快速迭代将成为业务增长的关键驱动力。与此同时,特斯拉在美部分地区面临产品安全诉讼有新情况。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周五,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价收低,盘中一度上涨的走势未能延续。市场对机器人出租车业务的期待,与近期对AI投资泡沫的担忧形成拉锯,使股价走势承压。在此前一天的科技股抛售中,特斯拉与其他“七巨头”均出现明显下跌,该股周四跌幅超过2%,周五再度走低超1%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d252e4da4a5335c145c1b167cd28082\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>近期市场情绪的波动主要源于外界对科技巨头大规模AI投资的疑虑。包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)在内的企业持续投入于数据中心和模型训练基础设施,而部分项目尚未产生正向现金流。在此背景下,特斯拉以其在数据中心、AI芯片以及FSD(完全自动驾驶)软件方面的投入,被投资者视为“AI机器人公司”的代表之一,这也使其股价更受情绪影响。</p><p>尽管市场担忧升温,特斯拉在自动驾驶和机器人出租车布局方面仍取得积极进展。</p><p>据报道,特斯拉近日完成在内华达州运营机器人出租车的自我认证程序,并获得当地机动车管理局颁发的“运营合规证书”,允许其在公共道路测试无人驾驶车辆,但商业化运营仍需获得内华达州交通管理局批准。</p><p>同一周内,亚利桑那州交通运输厅也确认,特斯拉已完成当地机器人出租车业务所需的全部流程,首期项目将继续配备安全员,模式与特斯拉在奥斯汀和旧金山湾区的服务类似。目前,美国市场上已有竞争对手如Waymo在部分城市提供无需安全员的L4级自动驾驶服务。</p><p>华尔街对特斯拉的自动驾驶前景保持关注。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFB\">Stifel</a>分析师Stephen Gengaro本周上调特斯拉目标价至508美元,并继续给予“买入”评级。他指出,特斯拉管理层预计到2025年底可将机器人出租车服务扩展至约8至10个大都市区域,并强调FSD的快速迭代将成为业务增长的关键驱动力。</p><p>与此同时,特斯拉在美部分地区面临产品安全诉讼有新情况。据报道,特斯拉在华盛顿州遭遇新的诉讼,涉及2023年初的一起 Model 3事故。一辆车辆据称在失控加速后撞上电线杆并起火,事故导致一人死亡、一人严重受伤。诉状称,事故发生后救援人员因车辆门把手无法正常操作而难以及时进入车内。这起案件是继威斯康星州另一宗涉及Model S的诉讼之后,近期关于电动车门机构争议的最新案例。相关案件仍在法律程序中。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>自驾与机器人出租车积极进展难敌市场避险情绪升温,特斯拉股价连日下跌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n自驾与机器人出租车积极进展难敌市场避险情绪升温,特斯拉股价连日下跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-22 08:15 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1372401.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周五,特斯拉股价收低,盘中一度上涨的走势未能延续。市场对机器人出租车业务的期待,与近期对AI投资泡沫的担忧形成拉锯,使股价走势承压。在此前一天的科技股抛售中,特斯拉与其他“七巨头”均出现明显下跌,该股周四跌幅超过2%,周五再度走低超1%。近期市场情绪的波动主要源于外界对科技巨头大规模AI投资的疑虑。包括英伟达(NVDA.US)在内的企业持续投入于数据中心和模型训练基础设施,而部分项目尚未产生正向...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1372401.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1372401.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2585124479","content_text":"周五,特斯拉股价收低,盘中一度上涨的走势未能延续。市场对机器人出租车业务的期待,与近期对AI投资泡沫的担忧形成拉锯,使股价走势承压。在此前一天的科技股抛售中,特斯拉与其他“七巨头”均出现明显下跌,该股周四跌幅超过2%,周五再度走低超1%。近期市场情绪的波动主要源于外界对科技巨头大规模AI投资的疑虑。包括英伟达(NVDA.US)在内的企业持续投入于数据中心和模型训练基础设施,而部分项目尚未产生正向现金流。在此背景下,特斯拉以其在数据中心、AI芯片以及FSD(完全自动驾驶)软件方面的投入,被投资者视为“AI机器人公司”的代表之一,这也使其股价更受情绪影响。尽管市场担忧升温,特斯拉在自动驾驶和机器人出租车布局方面仍取得积极进展。据报道,特斯拉近日完成在内华达州运营机器人出租车的自我认证程序,并获得当地机动车管理局颁发的“运营合规证书”,允许其在公共道路测试无人驾驶车辆,但商业化运营仍需获得内华达州交通管理局批准。同一周内,亚利桑那州交通运输厅也确认,特斯拉已完成当地机器人出租车业务所需的全部流程,首期项目将继续配备安全员,模式与特斯拉在奥斯汀和旧金山湾区的服务类似。目前,美国市场上已有竞争对手如Waymo在部分城市提供无需安全员的L4级自动驾驶服务。华尔街对特斯拉的自动驾驶前景保持关注。Stifel分析师Stephen Gengaro本周上调特斯拉目标价至508美元,并继续给予“买入”评级。他指出,特斯拉管理层预计到2025年底可将机器人出租车服务扩展至约8至10个大都市区域,并强调FSD的快速迭代将成为业务增长的关键驱动力。与此同时,特斯拉在美部分地区面临产品安全诉讼有新情况。据报道,特斯拉在华盛顿州遭遇新的诉讼,涉及2023年初的一起 Model 3事故。一辆车辆据称在失控加速后撞上电线杆并起火,事故导致一人死亡、一人严重受伤。诉状称,事故发生后救援人员因车辆门把手无法正常操作而难以及时进入车内。这起案件是继威斯康星州另一宗涉及Model S的诉讼之后,近期关于电动车门机构争议的最新案例。相关案件仍在法律程序中。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.5,"TSLL":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502247317508304,"gmtCreate":1763638056890,"gmtModify":1763638059370,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519254194891755","idStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"SpaceX换字节,鬼佬换不[开心] ","listText":"SpaceX换字节,鬼佬换不[开心] ","text":"SpaceX换字节,鬼佬换不[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502247317508304","repostId":"2584513860","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2584513860","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1763635686,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2584513860?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-20 18:48","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"字节跳动仍受资本追捧,估值升至4800亿美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2584513860","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今日资本近日通过股权拍卖,以约4800亿美元估值从字节跳动早期投资方中银集团投资有限公司收购部分股权,成交金额达3亿美元,成为该公司年内最大规模的二级市场交易之一。知情人士称,竞价过程激烈,反映出资本市场对字节跳动在AI技术布局与全球业务拓展方面的持续看好。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>“风投女王”徐新创立的风投机构今日资本<strong>,在股权拍卖中以4800亿美元估值收购字节跳动部分股份,资本市场对TikTok母公司仍持续看好。</strong></p>\n<p>11月20日,据媒体报道,今日资本在竞拍中击败多家机构,从字节跳动早期投资方<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02388\">中银</a>集团投资有限公司手中收购相应股权。今日资本曾投资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>等多家互联网巨头。</p>\n<p>据媒体援引知情人士,该笔交易最初以3600亿美元估值,定价约2亿美元。<strong>随着七家机构参与竞价,最终成交价推高至约3亿美元,对应估值接近5000亿美元。</strong>知情人士表示,这笔交易是今年字节跳动最大的二级市场交易之一。</p>\n<p>有分析人士表示,此次拍卖中如此激烈的竞价,很可能源于本次股份出售的稀缺性,以及投资者对字节跳动AI技术与全球业务增长前景的认可。</p>\n<h2>估值大幅上涨</h2>\n<p>根据媒体报道,<strong>字节跳动估值在近期交易中呈现显著上升趋势。</strong>知情人士指出,该公司去年9月推出的员工股票回购计划对应估值约为3300亿美元。他们还补充说,该公司此后一直在筹备面向机构股东的年度股票回购计划。</p>\n<p>此前,包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFTBY\">软银集团</a>和富达投资在内的多家主要投资者,已将其持有的字节跳动股份估值上调至超过4000亿美元。</p>\n<p>据CB Insights数据显示,若以当前市场估值计算,字节跳动已超越SpaceX(估值约4000亿美元),成为全球估值排名第二的初创企业,仅次于估值达5000亿美元的OpenAI。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>字节跳动仍受资本追捧,估值升至4800亿美元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n字节跳动仍受资本追捧,估值升至4800亿美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-20 18:48 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759807><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“风投女王”徐新创立的风投机构今日资本,在股权拍卖中以4800亿美元估值收购字节跳动部分股份,资本市场对TikTok母公司仍持续看好。\n11月20日,据媒体报道,今日资本在竞拍中击败多家机构,从字节跳动早期投资方中银集团投资有限公司手中收购相应股权。今日资本曾投资美团、京东等多家互联网巨头。\n据媒体援引知情人士,该笔交易最初以3600亿美元估值,定价约2亿美元。随着七家机构参与竞价,最终成交价...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759807\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2958907307044929d330311c413c1a4f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759807","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2584513860","content_text":"“风投女王”徐新创立的风投机构今日资本,在股权拍卖中以4800亿美元估值收购字节跳动部分股份,资本市场对TikTok母公司仍持续看好。\n11月20日,据媒体报道,今日资本在竞拍中击败多家机构,从字节跳动早期投资方中银集团投资有限公司手中收购相应股权。今日资本曾投资美团、京东等多家互联网巨头。\n据媒体援引知情人士,该笔交易最初以3600亿美元估值,定价约2亿美元。随着七家机构参与竞价,最终成交价推高至约3亿美元,对应估值接近5000亿美元。知情人士表示,这笔交易是今年字节跳动最大的二级市场交易之一。\n有分析人士表示,此次拍卖中如此激烈的竞价,很可能源于本次股份出售的稀缺性,以及投资者对字节跳动AI技术与全球业务增长前景的认可。\n估值大幅上涨\n根据媒体报道,字节跳动估值在近期交易中呈现显著上升趋势。知情人士指出,该公司去年9月推出的员工股票回购计划对应估值约为3300亿美元。他们还补充说,该公司此后一直在筹备面向机构股东的年度股票回购计划。\n此前,包括软银集团和富达投资在内的多家主要投资者,已将其持有的字节跳动股份估值上调至超过4000亿美元。\n据CB Insights数据显示,若以当前市场估值计算,字节跳动已超越SpaceX(估值约4000亿美元),成为全球估值排名第二的初创企业,仅次于估值达5000亿美元的OpenAI。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":500789181395032,"gmtCreate":1763303291387,"gmtModify":1763344103645,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519254194891755","idStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"搞了40年这个鸟样,会讲不会做","listText":"搞了40年这个鸟样,会讲不会做","text":"搞了40年这个鸟样,会讲不会做","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/500789181395032","repostId":"2583663018","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2583663018","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1763270531,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2583663018?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-16 13:22","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"图灵奖得主LeCun最后警告Meta!我搞了40年AI,大模型是死路","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2583663018","media":"新智元","summary":"新智元报道编辑:KingHZ图灵奖得主LeCun与Meta分道扬镳!今年夏天,年仅28岁的Alexandr Wang成为Meta的首席AI官,让这位初出茅庐的大语言模型狂热者成了LeCun的上司。媒体不断有消息放出,Meta要对其AI组织结构动刀。这已经是Meta在半年之内第四次调整AI业务了。现在,LeCun在Meta好像“忍无可忍”,终于要离职了。LeCun离开Meta,或为了世界模型此前报道,他正在与业内同行商议创办公司、寻找投资,组建专注世界模型的团队。","content":"<html><body><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/35B2F44437EC56FA89DE0FA77763972EDF47BCBA_size47_w1080_h459.jpg\"/></p><p><strong>新智元报道</strong></p><p>编辑:KingHZ</p><p><strong>【新智元导读】图灵奖得主LeCun与Meta分道扬镳!LLM邪路一条,“世界模型才是”未来。</strong></p><p>Meta风向已变,Yann LeCun承认马上离职!</p><p>据多家权威媒体报道,Meta首席AI科学家、负责“基础AI研究”(FAIR)的Yann LeCun,预计将很快离职。</p><p>这位65岁的AI界元老,在Meta这家全球最大的科技公司之一担任核心大脑,可以说拥有无限的资源。</p><p>Meta可谓挥金如土。它用天价薪酬疯狂从对手那里挖角顶尖AI专家。</p><p>在7月,扎克伯格甚至宣称“超级智能已近在眼前”。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/1987A151D37CD19E73C0A7E1EC6DCEB0F40447E1_size181_w1080_h564.png\"/></p><p>那么,LeCun为何要离开Meta呢?只是因为Meta的人事动荡吗?背后有何隐情?</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/DBAE50AA0E166C71D164747F2EE8B1CC86E81C35_size119_w1080_h475.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/ECE39149CFF0F8E9AC3F1173BC5554567DC41A9F_size2_w112_h59.png\"/></p><p><strong>小扎转向,LeCun失势?</strong></p><p>今年夏天,年仅28岁的Alexandr Wang成为Meta的首席AI官,让这位初出茅庐的大语言模型狂热者成了LeCun的上司。</p><p>此外,Meta今年还任命了另一位相对年轻的首席科学家赵晟佳(Shengjia Zhao),职位也在LeCun之上。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/77C4A7773204D72C23595A5C1980FB461C16B7B5_size359_w1080_h584.png\"/></p><p>在官方公告中,Meta盛赞了赵晟佳在scaling方面带来的“突破”。而LeCun恰恰对scaling失去了信心。</p><p>他还告诫博士生:“不要做LLM”。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/11EC829A0F617926A8887B8F1D2BC9D62EFA4CA7_size176_w1080_h458.png\"/></p><p>如果你好奇为什么LeCun和Zhao都是首席科学家,那是因为Meta的AI部门组织架构相当奇特,分成了多个独立的团队。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/7707187829EA9D520B8EA4DB7009BF4EF25B70CE_size185_w1080_h752.png\"/></p><p>媒体不断有消息放出,Meta要对其AI组织结构动刀。</p><p>上个月,Meta超级AI实验室裁掉了数百人,包括10年老将田渊栋。据称,这是为了理顺这种混乱的局面。</p><p>这已经是Meta在半年之内第四次调整AI业务了。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/E42B36BD65F4E9A36DBF8AF3228B09C81D4BB33D_size202_w1080_h521.png\"/></p><p>而那支曾由LeCun领导、风头一时无两的FAIR,如今早已<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301100\">风光</a>不再。据现任与前员工透露,这个部门经历了裁员、预算缩水,内部影响力也明显下降。</p><p>曾几何时,FAIR是Meta内部思想最活跃的“象牙塔”,研究人员可以探讨各种AI未来路径,甚至可以做些“未必能成”的实验,完全不用担心产品化问题。</p><p>而现在,Meta新组建的AI研究部门招来一大批高薪新兵,由Wang主导,目标明确:要快、要落地、要产品化。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/ECE39149CFF0F8E9AC3F1173BC5554567DC41A9F_size2_w112_h59.png\"/></p><p><strong>在AI上,他领先了40年</strong></p><p>LeCun一向走在时代前沿——</p><p>早在“机器学习”还不被主流认可时,他就开始研究这个方向。</p><p>他曾在多伦多的Geoffrey Hinton实验室工作,那时Hinton还没成为AI传奇人物。</p><p>之后,他的职业生涯大多时间都在新泽西州的贝尔实验室度过,这家机构因诞生众多创新发明而闻名。</p><p>1947年,贝尔实验室发明晶体管</p><p>“最让我兴奋的事情,就是和比我聪明的人共事,因为这会放大你的能力。”LeCun在2023年杂志采访时说道。</p><p>在贝尔实验室,LeCun曾参与开发手写识别技术,这项技术后来被广泛应用于银行自动读取支票。他还参与了一个项目,致力于将纸质文档数字化并通过互联网分发。</p><p>LeCun曾表示,自己从小就对物理感兴趣,在贝尔实验室期间也主要和物理学家合作,看了不少物理教材。</p><p>我学到了很多表面上与AI或计算机科学无关的东西(我本科是电气工程,计算机方面的正规训练其实很少)。</p><p>2003年,LeCun开始在纽约大学教授计算机科学,后来成为该校数据科学中心的创始主任。</p><p>2013年,扎克伯格亲自邀请他加入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Facebook</a>(当时还未更名为Meta),组建全新的AI实验室。</p><p>他领导这个团队四年,2018年卸任,转为公司首席AI科学家,以“个人研究员”身份继续探索技术前沿。</p><p>2018年,他与Geoffrey Hinton和Yoshua Bengio共同获得图灵奖——计算机界的最高荣誉,以表彰三人在神经网络方面的奠基性工作。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/09D6644675C1986FC32304EA2ECFADE129E6A8A3_size83_w1080_h608.jpg\"/></p><p>自那之后,LeCun就逐渐转为“象征性人物”角色。他没有参与Meta首个开源大语言模型Llama的研发,也早就不再参与这类项目的日常工作。</p><p>据与他共事的人透露,LeCun现在主要在做自己的研究项目,也经常出席各种技术会议,发表对AI技术的看法。</p><p>面对媒体的报道,Yann LeCun只是指出了报道中的“小错误”,并没有否认即将离职的消息。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/FAA6081315B65652272BA9584C773B1C83E14F6E_size429_w1080_h942.png\"/></p><p>他知道自己在包括Meta在内的整个硅谷技术圈内,备受冷落。上个月在MIT的一次研讨会上,65岁的LeCun直言:</p><p>这些年,我在硅谷、包括Meta的很多角落都不太受欢迎,因为我一直在说,3到5年内,世界模型将成为主流AI架构,没人再会愿意用现在这种LLM。</p><p>但他坚信自己对AI未来的判断。他的老朋友Léon Bottou曾告诉媒体,LeCun“倔强得可爱”——他会听别人意见,但更有自己坚守的信念。</p><p>现在,LeCun在Meta好像“忍无可忍”,终于要离职了。</p><p>实际上,他早已多次暗示答案。</p><p>在通往通用人工智能的道路上,LeCun近来以其对大语言模型的尖锐批评而闻名。</p><p>他认为,无论科技巨头如何扩大其规模,我们目前所理解的大语言模型都已是“强弩之末”,是一条“岔路、干扰,一条死胡同”。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/2EC3C9ACE52BE9259EFAD471D6465B9149B16EA8_size748_w1080_h608.png\"/></p><p>他投身AI研究已有40年,对AI的判断屡屡应验。如今,他认为大多数人都错了。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/B448D064609E4F6D631150F6AAEECE9F083E5CFC_size254_w1080_h423.png\"/></p><p>他为现代AI奠定了诸多基础。而现在他坚信,领域内的大多数人都被大语言模型的“海妖之歌”引入了歧途。</p><p>这为他的离职提供了更多可能的解释。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/ECE39149CFF0F8E9AC3F1173BC5554567DC41A9F_size2_w112_h59.png\"/></p><p><strong>LeCun离开Meta,或为了世界模型</strong></p><p>此前报道,他正在与业内同行商议创办公司、寻找投资,组建专注世界模型的团队。</p><p><strong>所谓“世界模型”,类似小动物或婴儿那样,通过视觉等感知数据主动学习世界规律;而LLM只是依赖海量文本做预测的模型。</strong></p><p>LeCun本人也从不避讳解释为何他认为“世界模型”才是AI的答案。</p><p>Meta的Llama、OpenAI的GPT、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>的Bard这些模型,都是靠<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">海量数据</a>训练出来的。LeCun估算,如果让人去读完它们训练所需的所有文本,大概得花10万年。</p><p><strong>但人类学习的主要方式,并不是读文本。</strong></p><p>我们从与世界的互动中,获取的信息要多得多。LeCun估计,一个普通的四岁小孩接触过的数据量,是目前最大的LLM的50倍。</p><p>大部分人类知识,其实不是语言。</p><p>所以这些系统永远不可能达到人类水平的智能——除非你彻底改掉它们的架构。</p><p>而他自己,早就准备好了替代方案。他称之为“目标驱动的AI”(objective-driven AI)。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/273AF6B25BF7A5657B07F12D49EEBC8D97B77AC1_size362_w1080_h609.png\"/></p><p>目标驱动的AI系统的构建宗旨,是完成人类设定的特定目标。</p><p>与仅靠纯文本数据驱动不同,它们通过传感器和视频数据训练来认知物理世界。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/33B51034C7EE219E640017371643222B1ED8069F_size92_w612_h590.jpg\"/></p><p>由此构建出的“世界模型”能呈现行动带来的影响,所有潜在变化都会实时更新至系统记忆。</p><p><strong><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/EA67F8318234F4BA42DD687A2695DE1D0AA7B3C8_size3_w292_h73.png\"/></strong></p><p><strong>他为何对世界模型如此沉迷?</strong></p><p>在年初的“巴黎AI峰会”上,Yann LeCun明确指出,他是可穿戴设备的坚定信徒。</p><p>他认为,未来,我们需要与可穿戴设备互动,就像与人交流一样,而大语言模型根本不像人类那样理解世界。</p><p>对于大语言模型,我们甚至无法复制猫或老鼠的智能,更不用说狗了。</p><p>这些动物能完成惊人的壮举,它们理解物理世界。任何一只家猫都能规划出极其复杂的行动,<strong>因为它们拥有关于世界的因果模型</strong>。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/60B1A2297A4890E473BD69CE9D9C9045380C1A21_size347_w1080_h508.png\"/></p><p>为了说明这一点,LeCun设计了一个<strong>思想实验</strong>:“想象一个立方体悬浮在你面前的空中。好,现在让这个立方体绕着垂直轴旋转90度。它会是什么样子?”</p><p>他认为任何人类都能轻松完成,而大语言模型却无能为力:</p><p>“对人来说,在脑海中构建一个旋转立方体的心理模型,非常容易。”</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/99ACBB5B2E39B6F9C017055D1E9CD91BCA531AE5_size452_w1080_h724.png\"/></p><p>当然,大语言模型可以毫不费力地写一首关于悬浮旋转立方体的打油诗,<strong>但它无法真正帮助你与这个立方体互动。</strong></p><p><strong>LeCun断言,这是因为文本数据与处理非文本世界所获得的数据之间存在本质差异。</strong></p><p>他指出,尽管大语言模型训练所用的文本量需要一个人花45万年才能读完,但一个四岁的孩子在醒着的16000小时里,通过眼睛看、用手触摸,已经处理了高达1.4x10^14字节的关于世界的感觉数据——</p><p>他认为这比大语言模型处理的数据还要多。</p><p>顺便一提,这些只是LeCun在演讲中给出的估算,他在其他场合也给过不同的数字。但这些数字指向的核心观点是:<strong>大语言模型存在着局限,而LeCun相信世界模型能够克服这些局限。</strong></p><p><strong><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/EA67F8318234F4BA42DD687A2695DE1D0AA7B3C8_size3_w292_h73.png\"/></strong></p><p><strong>他又将如何构建世界模型?</strong></p><p>在Meta时,LeCun其实已经开始研究世界模型——他还拍了一个介绍视频,开头就让你想象一个旋转的立方体。</p><p>在AI行动峰会的演讲中,他<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想</a>中的模型包含一个对“当前世界状态的估计”,以某种抽象形式呈现与当前情境相关的一切。它不再是按顺序预测token,而是“预测在你采取一系列行动后,世界将达到的最终状态”。</p><p>他表示,世界模型将使未来的计算机科学家能够构建出“可以规划行动——可能是分层级的——以实现某个目标的系统,以及能够进行推理的系统。”</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/91E70EFF149E4F3F202C2A471EF7B8FD7BA72C5E_size592_w1080_h611.png\"/></p><p>LeCun还坚称,这类系统将拥有更强大的安全特性,因为控制它们的方式是内置的,而不是像现在这样,面对一个神秘莫测、只会输出文本的黑箱,只能通过微调来加以修正。</p><p>LeCun所说的经典AI——例如搜索引擎中使用的软件——所有问题都可以归结为优化问题。</p><p>他提出,他的世界模型将审视当前的世界状态,并通过寻找高效的解决方案,来寻求与某个不同状态的兼容性。</p><p>LeCun在演讲中解释道:“你需要一个能量函数来衡量不兼容性,给定一个x,找到一个对于该x能量较低的y”。</p><p>如果说,我们从LeCun的公开言论中拼凑出的“真相”很粗糙、有些模糊,甚至完全错误,那也完全正常。</p><p>LeCun似乎正在构想一个“登月计划”——</p><p>他希望推动AI领域迎来又一次类似ChatGPT那样的、诞生惊人能力的爆发式发展。</p><p>但这可能需要耗费数年——甚至永远无法实现——更不用说数十亿美元的投资了,才可能看到任何真正了不起的成果。</p></body></html>","source":"fenghuang_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>图灵奖得主LeCun最后警告Meta!我搞了40年AI,大模型是死路</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8oKJxCr1I89\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF","SGXZ23171101.USD":"NIKKO AM SHENTON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2237957902.USD":"NIKKO AM GLOBAL EQUITY \"F\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU2237957811.SGD":"NIKKO AM GLOBAL EQUITY \"F\" (SGD) ACC","LU2242650005.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL MULTI ASSET DYNAMIC \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","LU1791710400.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD","LU1235294995.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - 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LeCun,预计将很快离职。这位65岁的AI界元老,在Meta这家全球最大的科技公司之一担任核心大脑,可以说拥有无限的资源。Meta可谓挥金如土。它用天价薪酬疯狂从对手那里挖角顶尖AI专家。在7月,扎克伯格甚至宣称“超级智能已近在眼前”。那么,LeCun为何要离开Meta呢?只是因为Meta的人事动荡吗?背后有何隐情?小扎转向,LeCun失势?今年夏天,年仅28岁的Alexandr Wang成为Meta的首席AI官,让这位初出茅庐的大语言模型狂热者成了LeCun的上司。此外,Meta今年还任命了另一位相对年轻的首席科学家赵晟佳(Shengjia Zhao),职位也在LeCun之上。在官方公告中,Meta盛赞了赵晟佳在scaling方面带来的“突破”。而LeCun恰恰对scaling失去了信心。他还告诫博士生:“不要做LLM”。如果你好奇为什么LeCun和Zhao都是首席科学家,那是因为Meta的AI部门组织架构相当奇特,分成了多个独立的团队。媒体不断有消息放出,Meta要对其AI组织结构动刀。上个月,Meta超级AI实验室裁掉了数百人,包括10年老将田渊栋。据称,这是为了理顺这种混乱的局面。这已经是Meta在半年之内第四次调整AI业务了。而那支曾由LeCun领导、风头一时无两的FAIR,如今早已风光不再。据现任与前员工透露,这个部门经历了裁员、预算缩水,内部影响力也明显下降。曾几何时,FAIR是Meta内部思想最活跃的“象牙塔”,研究人员可以探讨各种AI未来路径,甚至可以做些“未必能成”的实验,完全不用担心产品化问题。而现在,Meta新组建的AI研究部门招来一大批高薪新兵,由Wang主导,目标明确:要快、要落地、要产品化。在AI上,他领先了40年LeCun一向走在时代前沿——早在“机器学习”还不被主流认可时,他就开始研究这个方向。他曾在多伦多的Geoffrey Hinton实验室工作,那时Hinton还没成为AI传奇人物。之后,他的职业生涯大多时间都在新泽西州的贝尔实验室度过,这家机构因诞生众多创新发明而闻名。1947年,贝尔实验室发明晶体管“最让我兴奋的事情,就是和比我聪明的人共事,因为这会放大你的能力。”LeCun在2023年杂志采访时说道。在贝尔实验室,LeCun曾参与开发手写识别技术,这项技术后来被广泛应用于银行自动读取支票。他还参与了一个项目,致力于将纸质文档数字化并通过互联网分发。LeCun曾表示,自己从小就对物理感兴趣,在贝尔实验室期间也主要和物理学家合作,看了不少物理教材。我学到了很多表面上与AI或计算机科学无关的东西(我本科是电气工程,计算机方面的正规训练其实很少)。2003年,LeCun开始在纽约大学教授计算机科学,后来成为该校数据科学中心的创始主任。2013年,扎克伯格亲自邀请他加入Facebook(当时还未更名为Meta),组建全新的AI实验室。他领导这个团队四年,2018年卸任,转为公司首席AI科学家,以“个人研究员”身份继续探索技术前沿。2018年,他与Geoffrey Hinton和Yoshua Bengio共同获得图灵奖——计算机界的最高荣誉,以表彰三人在神经网络方面的奠基性工作。自那之后,LeCun就逐渐转为“象征性人物”角色。他没有参与Meta首个开源大语言模型Llama的研发,也早就不再参与这类项目的日常工作。据与他共事的人透露,LeCun现在主要在做自己的研究项目,也经常出席各种技术会议,发表对AI技术的看法。面对媒体的报道,Yann LeCun只是指出了报道中的“小错误”,并没有否认即将离职的消息。他知道自己在包括Meta在内的整个硅谷技术圈内,备受冷落。上个月在MIT的一次研讨会上,65岁的LeCun直言:这些年,我在硅谷、包括Meta的很多角落都不太受欢迎,因为我一直在说,3到5年内,世界模型将成为主流AI架构,没人再会愿意用现在这种LLM。但他坚信自己对AI未来的判断。他的老朋友Léon Bottou曾告诉媒体,LeCun“倔强得可爱”——他会听别人意见,但更有自己坚守的信念。现在,LeCun在Meta好像“忍无可忍”,终于要离职了。实际上,他早已多次暗示答案。在通往通用人工智能的道路上,LeCun近来以其对大语言模型的尖锐批评而闻名。他认为,无论科技巨头如何扩大其规模,我们目前所理解的大语言模型都已是“强弩之末”,是一条“岔路、干扰,一条死胡同”。他投身AI研究已有40年,对AI的判断屡屡应验。如今,他认为大多数人都错了。他为现代AI奠定了诸多基础。而现在他坚信,领域内的大多数人都被大语言模型的“海妖之歌”引入了歧途。这为他的离职提供了更多可能的解释。LeCun离开Meta,或为了世界模型此前报道,他正在与业内同行商议创办公司、寻找投资,组建专注世界模型的团队。所谓“世界模型”,类似小动物或婴儿那样,通过视觉等感知数据主动学习世界规律;而LLM只是依赖海量文本做预测的模型。LeCun本人也从不避讳解释为何他认为“世界模型”才是AI的答案。Meta的Llama、OpenAI的GPT、谷歌的Bard这些模型,都是靠海量数据训练出来的。LeCun估算,如果让人去读完它们训练所需的所有文本,大概得花10万年。但人类学习的主要方式,并不是读文本。我们从与世界的互动中,获取的信息要多得多。LeCun估计,一个普通的四岁小孩接触过的数据量,是目前最大的LLM的50倍。大部分人类知识,其实不是语言。所以这些系统永远不可能达到人类水平的智能——除非你彻底改掉它们的架构。而他自己,早就准备好了替代方案。他称之为“目标驱动的AI”(objective-driven AI)。目标驱动的AI系统的构建宗旨,是完成人类设定的特定目标。与仅靠纯文本数据驱动不同,它们通过传感器和视频数据训练来认知物理世界。由此构建出的“世界模型”能呈现行动带来的影响,所有潜在变化都会实时更新至系统记忆。他为何对世界模型如此沉迷?在年初的“巴黎AI峰会”上,Yann LeCun明确指出,他是可穿戴设备的坚定信徒。他认为,未来,我们需要与可穿戴设备互动,就像与人交流一样,而大语言模型根本不像人类那样理解世界。对于大语言模型,我们甚至无法复制猫或老鼠的智能,更不用说狗了。这些动物能完成惊人的壮举,它们理解物理世界。任何一只家猫都能规划出极其复杂的行动,因为它们拥有关于世界的因果模型。为了说明这一点,LeCun设计了一个思想实验:“想象一个立方体悬浮在你面前的空中。好,现在让这个立方体绕着垂直轴旋转90度。它会是什么样子?”他认为任何人类都能轻松完成,而大语言模型却无能为力:“对人来说,在脑海中构建一个旋转立方体的心理模型,非常容易。”当然,大语言模型可以毫不费力地写一首关于悬浮旋转立方体的打油诗,但它无法真正帮助你与这个立方体互动。LeCun断言,这是因为文本数据与处理非文本世界所获得的数据之间存在本质差异。他指出,尽管大语言模型训练所用的文本量需要一个人花45万年才能读完,但一个四岁的孩子在醒着的16000小时里,通过眼睛看、用手触摸,已经处理了高达1.4x10^14字节的关于世界的感觉数据——他认为这比大语言模型处理的数据还要多。顺便一提,这些只是LeCun在演讲中给出的估算,他在其他场合也给过不同的数字。但这些数字指向的核心观点是:大语言模型存在着局限,而LeCun相信世界模型能够克服这些局限。他又将如何构建世界模型?在Meta时,LeCun其实已经开始研究世界模型——他还拍了一个介绍视频,开头就让你想象一个旋转的立方体。在AI行动峰会的演讲中,他理想中的模型包含一个对“当前世界状态的估计”,以某种抽象形式呈现与当前情境相关的一切。它不再是按顺序预测token,而是“预测在你采取一系列行动后,世界将达到的最终状态”。他表示,世界模型将使未来的计算机科学家能够构建出“可以规划行动——可能是分层级的——以实现某个目标的系统,以及能够进行推理的系统。”LeCun还坚称,这类系统将拥有更强大的安全特性,因为控制它们的方式是内置的,而不是像现在这样,面对一个神秘莫测、只会输出文本的黑箱,只能通过微调来加以修正。LeCun所说的经典AI——例如搜索引擎中使用的软件——所有问题都可以归结为优化问题。他提出,他的世界模型将审视当前的世界状态,并通过寻找高效的解决方案,来寻求与某个不同状态的兼容性。LeCun在演讲中解释道:“你需要一个能量函数来衡量不兼容性,给定一个x,找到一个对于该x能量较低的y”。如果说,我们从LeCun的公开言论中拼凑出的“真相”很粗糙、有些模糊,甚至完全错误,那也完全正常。LeCun似乎正在构想一个“登月计划”——他希望推动AI领域迎来又一次类似ChatGPT那样的、诞生惊人能力的爆发式发展。但这可能需要耗费数年——甚至永远无法实现——更不用说数十亿美元的投资了,才可能看到任何真正了不起的成果。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"META":1.5,"FB":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":472944432316488,"gmtCreate":1756517421113,"gmtModify":1756517422805,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519254194891755","idStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不是所有看轻人都是扎克","listText":"不是所有看轻人都是扎克","text":"不是所有看轻人都是扎克","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/472944432316488","repostId":"1115034373","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1115034373","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球快讯第一时间播报","home_visible":1,"media_name":"美股速递","id":"1004306016","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3bf6d02ad1a6e9e7377eebbb162346a"},"pubTimestamp":1756461888,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115034373?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-29 18:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"OpenAI ChatGPT联合创始人赵圣嘉加入Meta几天内就威胁辞职","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115034373","media":"美股速递","summary":"OpenAI ChatGPT联合创始人赵圣嘉加入Meta几天内就威胁辞职","content":"<p>OpenAI ChatGPT联合创始人赵圣嘉加入Meta几天内就威胁辞职</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OpenAI ChatGPT联合创始人赵圣嘉加入Meta几天内就威胁辞职</title>\n<style 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ChatGPT联合创始人赵圣嘉加入Meta几天内就威胁辞职","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1,"META":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":406981499642128,"gmtCreate":1740379010374,"gmtModify":1740379018905,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519254194891755","idStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"他要是下几亿美金空单我就信了","listText":"他要是下几亿美金空单我就信了","text":"他要是下几亿美金空单我就信了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/406981499642128","repostId":"1103660322","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1103660322","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1740374420,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103660322?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-24 13:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉股价面临50%跌幅风险?马斯克曾经的忠实信徒详解四大危机","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103660322","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"现在,他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。在大选后最初的飙升之后,特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%,自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来,特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。尽管投资者最初热情高涨,但该行表示,特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元,这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>他曾是埃隆-马斯克最忠实的信徒。现在,他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。</p></blockquote><p>2月24日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>投资者、格伯川崎财富管理公司CEO罗斯·格伯最近再次对这只股票发表看空观点,认为四大因素可能导致特斯拉股票今年下跌至多50%。</p><p>去年年中格伯透露,由于担心特斯拉汽车的受欢迎程度正在下降,他已出售了约6000万美元的特斯拉股票。然后,在特朗普赢得大选后,格伯在12月初表示,马斯克与总统的关系即使有任何积极因素,也不会对特斯拉产生多大影响。</p><p>这些警告现在看来很有先见之明。在大选后最初的飙升之后,特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%,自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来,特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/265b400e1d43f3603ff06b5dda26ea58\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>格伯认为,在一系列熟悉的问题中,这一趋势仍在继续,包括估值过高、对该公司全自动驾驶(FSD)能力的担忧,以及马斯克不可预测的行为带来的连锁反应。</p><p>在最新的一次采访中,格伯进一步阐述了他的悲观观点,概述了他认为特斯拉很容易受到高达50%的下跌影响的原因。</p><p>监管文件显示,格伯在2024年将持有的特斯拉股份减少了31%,截至去年年底,他仍持有26.2万股特斯拉股票,价值1.06亿美元。</p><p><strong>以下是格伯预测特斯拉将面临艰难一年的四个原因:</strong></p><p><strong>1. FSD“行不通”</strong></p><p>格伯认为,今年特斯拉的股票将遭遇灾难,因为马斯克6月份在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出自动驾驶出租车网络的目标过于雄心勃勃。</p><p>“所有这些东西都将在今年实现,因为他把实现全自动驾驶的最后期限定为几个月后。这似乎不可能发生,”格伯说。</p><p>“我们在机器人出租车和自动驾驶方面远远落后,这是毫无疑问的,”戈伯说,并补充说他认为Waymo的方法是“一个更安全的系统”。</p><p>他说:“我现在认为,你需要激光雷达来拥有一个足够安全的全自动驾驶系统。他们(特斯拉)将会碰壁,除非他们改变硬件,否则他们无法变得更好。”</p><p><strong>2. 马斯克分心了</strong></p><p>从经营特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI等多家公司,到在X上发表大量文章,到在DOGE牵头提高政府效率,再到成为十几个孩子的父亲,可以肯定地说,马斯克一天中的时间可能不够用。</p><p>格伯认为,这对特斯拉股东来说是个问题,尤其是考虑到马斯克最近几个月的唯一关注点似乎是人工智能。</p><p>格伯表示:“他100%专注于人工智能,这对特斯拉的不利影响大于对xAI和其他所有业务的有利影响,因为他已经不在特斯拉工作了。”</p><p>“如果他把所有的时间都投入到全自动驾驶上,我对特斯拉会更有信心。”</p><p><strong>3. 电动汽车销售放缓</strong></p><p>虽然投资者对特斯拉的炒作主要集中在其自动驾驶和机器人的雄心上,但销售汽车仍然是该公司的核心业务,而这一业务开始放缓。</p><p>去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。在预测2025年增长20%-30%之后,该公司管理层在最新的财报电话会议上表示,预计今年将“恢复增长”。</p><p>对于格伯来说,来自比亚迪日益激烈的竞争,对特斯拉在美国以外的电动汽车业务构成了真正的威胁。他说。“比亚迪是一家如此优秀的公司,新兴市场的每个人都在购买比亚迪。”</p><p>特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。</p><p>格伯解释道:“这只会制造愤怒。我从未见过这种对特斯拉的愤怒,但这不是对特斯拉这个公司的愤怒,而是因为埃隆,这是人们发泄愤怒的唯一途径。”</p><p>美国歌手谢丽尔·克劳(Sheryl Crow)上周在Instagram上发布了一段视频,向她的特斯拉挥手告别,她卖掉了特斯拉以示抗议。</p><p>这一趋势可能会在美国以外的地区加速发展,据报道,特斯拉1月份在法国、德国和挪威的汽车销量分别下降了63%、60%和38%。</p><p>“我们必须卖车,但人们已经不想要了,”格伯说。</p><p><strong>4. 特斯拉估值较高</strong></p><p>相对于其他汽车制造商和市值巨大的科技同行,特斯拉的估值一直较高,但如果特斯拉的汽车销售持续放缓,这种溢价可能会大幅降低。</p><p>YCharts的数据显示,尽管特斯拉去年的利润仅为丰田的20%,但其市值高达1.1万亿美元,是丰田的近5倍。其预期市盈率为118倍,是“七巨头”股票中第二高的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(Nvidia)的三倍多,也高于其84倍的5年平均水平。</p><p>“对我来说,问题是,我以125倍的市盈率持有1亿美元的特斯拉股票,它甚至不接近’七巨头”中任何正常股票的市盈率,”格伯说,“因此,特斯拉的弱点是,如果今年情况不顺利,它可能会下跌50%。所以我们卖出特斯拉的股票。我们仍然有大量的股票,我们卖掉它们,因为我们认为它们被高估了。”</p><p>华尔街的一些大公司可能会同意格伯的观点。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>对特斯拉最新的盈利发布持悲观态度。尽管投资者最初热情高涨,但该行表示,特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元,这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。</p><p><em>本文编译自 BUSINESS INSIDER 《He was once Elon Musk's biggest believer. Now he's doubling down on why Tesla stock will feel serious pain in 2025.》</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉股价面临50%跌幅风险?马斯克曾经的忠实信徒详解四大危机</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉股价面临50%跌幅风险?马斯克曾经的忠实信徒详解四大危机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-02-24 13:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>他曾是埃隆-马斯克最忠实的信徒。现在,他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。</p></blockquote><p>2月24日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>投资者、格伯川崎财富管理公司CEO罗斯·格伯最近再次对这只股票发表看空观点,认为四大因素可能导致特斯拉股票今年下跌至多50%。</p><p>去年年中格伯透露,由于担心特斯拉汽车的受欢迎程度正在下降,他已出售了约6000万美元的特斯拉股票。然后,在特朗普赢得大选后,格伯在12月初表示,马斯克与总统的关系即使有任何积极因素,也不会对特斯拉产生多大影响。</p><p>这些警告现在看来很有先见之明。在大选后最初的飙升之后,特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%,自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来,特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/265b400e1d43f3603ff06b5dda26ea58\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>格伯认为,在一系列熟悉的问题中,这一趋势仍在继续,包括估值过高、对该公司全自动驾驶(FSD)能力的担忧,以及马斯克不可预测的行为带来的连锁反应。</p><p>在最新的一次采访中,格伯进一步阐述了他的悲观观点,概述了他认为特斯拉很容易受到高达50%的下跌影响的原因。</p><p>监管文件显示,格伯在2024年将持有的特斯拉股份减少了31%,截至去年年底,他仍持有26.2万股特斯拉股票,价值1.06亿美元。</p><p><strong>以下是格伯预测特斯拉将面临艰难一年的四个原因:</strong></p><p><strong>1. FSD“行不通”</strong></p><p>格伯认为,今年特斯拉的股票将遭遇灾难,因为马斯克6月份在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出自动驾驶出租车网络的目标过于雄心勃勃。</p><p>“所有这些东西都将在今年实现,因为他把实现全自动驾驶的最后期限定为几个月后。这似乎不可能发生,”格伯说。</p><p>“我们在机器人出租车和自动驾驶方面远远落后,这是毫无疑问的,”戈伯说,并补充说他认为Waymo的方法是“一个更安全的系统”。</p><p>他说:“我现在认为,你需要激光雷达来拥有一个足够安全的全自动驾驶系统。他们(特斯拉)将会碰壁,除非他们改变硬件,否则他们无法变得更好。”</p><p><strong>2. 马斯克分心了</strong></p><p>从经营特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI等多家公司,到在X上发表大量文章,到在DOGE牵头提高政府效率,再到成为十几个孩子的父亲,可以肯定地说,马斯克一天中的时间可能不够用。</p><p>格伯认为,这对特斯拉股东来说是个问题,尤其是考虑到马斯克最近几个月的唯一关注点似乎是人工智能。</p><p>格伯表示:“他100%专注于人工智能,这对特斯拉的不利影响大于对xAI和其他所有业务的有利影响,因为他已经不在特斯拉工作了。”</p><p>“如果他把所有的时间都投入到全自动驾驶上,我对特斯拉会更有信心。”</p><p><strong>3. 电动汽车销售放缓</strong></p><p>虽然投资者对特斯拉的炒作主要集中在其自动驾驶和机器人的雄心上,但销售汽车仍然是该公司的核心业务,而这一业务开始放缓。</p><p>去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。在预测2025年增长20%-30%之后,该公司管理层在最新的财报电话会议上表示,预计今年将“恢复增长”。</p><p>对于格伯来说,来自比亚迪日益激烈的竞争,对特斯拉在美国以外的电动汽车业务构成了真正的威胁。他说。“比亚迪是一家如此优秀的公司,新兴市场的每个人都在购买比亚迪。”</p><p>特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。</p><p>格伯解释道:“这只会制造愤怒。我从未见过这种对特斯拉的愤怒,但这不是对特斯拉这个公司的愤怒,而是因为埃隆,这是人们发泄愤怒的唯一途径。”</p><p>美国歌手谢丽尔·克劳(Sheryl Crow)上周在Instagram上发布了一段视频,向她的特斯拉挥手告别,她卖掉了特斯拉以示抗议。</p><p>这一趋势可能会在美国以外的地区加速发展,据报道,特斯拉1月份在法国、德国和挪威的汽车销量分别下降了63%、60%和38%。</p><p>“我们必须卖车,但人们已经不想要了,”格伯说。</p><p><strong>4. 特斯拉估值较高</strong></p><p>相对于其他汽车制造商和市值巨大的科技同行,特斯拉的估值一直较高,但如果特斯拉的汽车销售持续放缓,这种溢价可能会大幅降低。</p><p>YCharts的数据显示,尽管特斯拉去年的利润仅为丰田的20%,但其市值高达1.1万亿美元,是丰田的近5倍。其预期市盈率为118倍,是“七巨头”股票中第二高的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(Nvidia)的三倍多,也高于其84倍的5年平均水平。</p><p>“对我来说,问题是,我以125倍的市盈率持有1亿美元的特斯拉股票,它甚至不接近’七巨头”中任何正常股票的市盈率,”格伯说,“因此,特斯拉的弱点是,如果今年情况不顺利,它可能会下跌50%。所以我们卖出特斯拉的股票。我们仍然有大量的股票,我们卖掉它们,因为我们认为它们被高估了。”</p><p>华尔街的一些大公司可能会同意格伯的观点。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>对特斯拉最新的盈利发布持悲观态度。尽管投资者最初热情高涨,但该行表示,特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元,这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。</p><p><em>本文编译自 BUSINESS INSIDER 《He was once Elon Musk's biggest believer. Now he's doubling down on why Tesla stock will feel serious pain in 2025.》</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74682068d49f2901bc7ff0be69cf3e49","relate_stocks":{"TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103660322","content_text":"他曾是埃隆-马斯克最忠实的信徒。现在,他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。2月24日,特斯拉投资者、格伯川崎财富管理公司CEO罗斯·格伯最近再次对这只股票发表看空观点,认为四大因素可能导致特斯拉股票今年下跌至多50%。去年年中格伯透露,由于担心特斯拉汽车的受欢迎程度正在下降,他已出售了约6000万美元的特斯拉股票。然后,在特朗普赢得大选后,格伯在12月初表示,马斯克与总统的关系即使有任何积极因素,也不会对特斯拉产生多大影响。这些警告现在看来很有先见之明。在大选后最初的飙升之后,特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%,自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来,特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。格伯认为,在一系列熟悉的问题中,这一趋势仍在继续,包括估值过高、对该公司全自动驾驶(FSD)能力的担忧,以及马斯克不可预测的行为带来的连锁反应。在最新的一次采访中,格伯进一步阐述了他的悲观观点,概述了他认为特斯拉很容易受到高达50%的下跌影响的原因。监管文件显示,格伯在2024年将持有的特斯拉股份减少了31%,截至去年年底,他仍持有26.2万股特斯拉股票,价值1.06亿美元。以下是格伯预测特斯拉将面临艰难一年的四个原因:1. FSD“行不通”格伯认为,今年特斯拉的股票将遭遇灾难,因为马斯克6月份在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出自动驾驶出租车网络的目标过于雄心勃勃。“所有这些东西都将在今年实现,因为他把实现全自动驾驶的最后期限定为几个月后。这似乎不可能发生,”格伯说。“我们在机器人出租车和自动驾驶方面远远落后,这是毫无疑问的,”戈伯说,并补充说他认为Waymo的方法是“一个更安全的系统”。他说:“我现在认为,你需要激光雷达来拥有一个足够安全的全自动驾驶系统。他们(特斯拉)将会碰壁,除非他们改变硬件,否则他们无法变得更好。”2. 马斯克分心了从经营特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI等多家公司,到在X上发表大量文章,到在DOGE牵头提高政府效率,再到成为十几个孩子的父亲,可以肯定地说,马斯克一天中的时间可能不够用。格伯认为,这对特斯拉股东来说是个问题,尤其是考虑到马斯克最近几个月的唯一关注点似乎是人工智能。格伯表示:“他100%专注于人工智能,这对特斯拉的不利影响大于对xAI和其他所有业务的有利影响,因为他已经不在特斯拉工作了。”“如果他把所有的时间都投入到全自动驾驶上,我对特斯拉会更有信心。”3. 电动汽车销售放缓虽然投资者对特斯拉的炒作主要集中在其自动驾驶和机器人的雄心上,但销售汽车仍然是该公司的核心业务,而这一业务开始放缓。去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。在预测2025年增长20%-30%之后,该公司管理层在最新的财报电话会议上表示,预计今年将“恢复增长”。对于格伯来说,来自比亚迪日益激烈的竞争,对特斯拉在美国以外的电动汽车业务构成了真正的威胁。他说。“比亚迪是一家如此优秀的公司,新兴市场的每个人都在购买比亚迪。”特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。格伯解释道:“这只会制造愤怒。我从未见过这种对特斯拉的愤怒,但这不是对特斯拉这个公司的愤怒,而是因为埃隆,这是人们发泄愤怒的唯一途径。”美国歌手谢丽尔·克劳(Sheryl Crow)上周在Instagram上发布了一段视频,向她的特斯拉挥手告别,她卖掉了特斯拉以示抗议。这一趋势可能会在美国以外的地区加速发展,据报道,特斯拉1月份在法国、德国和挪威的汽车销量分别下降了63%、60%和38%。“我们必须卖车,但人们已经不想要了,”格伯说。4. 特斯拉估值较高相对于其他汽车制造商和市值巨大的科技同行,特斯拉的估值一直较高,但如果特斯拉的汽车销售持续放缓,这种溢价可能会大幅降低。YCharts的数据显示,尽管特斯拉去年的利润仅为丰田的20%,但其市值高达1.1万亿美元,是丰田的近5倍。其预期市盈率为118倍,是“七巨头”股票中第二高的英伟达(Nvidia)的三倍多,也高于其84倍的5年平均水平。“对我来说,问题是,我以125倍的市盈率持有1亿美元的特斯拉股票,它甚至不接近’七巨头”中任何正常股票的市盈率,”格伯说,“因此,特斯拉的弱点是,如果今年情况不顺利,它可能会下跌50%。所以我们卖出特斯拉的股票。我们仍然有大量的股票,我们卖掉它们,因为我们认为它们被高估了。”华尔街的一些大公司可能会同意格伯的观点。摩根大通对特斯拉最新的盈利发布持悲观态度。尽管投资者最初热情高涨,但该行表示,特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元,这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。本文编译自 BUSINESS INSIDER 《He was once Elon Musk's biggest believer. Now he's doubling down on why Tesla stock will feel serious pain in 2025.》","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1,"TSLL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":405385664462880,"gmtCreate":1740016588910,"gmtModify":1740016591073,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519254194891755","idStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"为什么国内的互联网企业就喜欢卷这些应用程序?补贴入场,大家亏损,然后再涨价,一点新的创造力都没?投这些企业的意义是什么?","listText":"为什么国内的互联网企业就喜欢卷这些应用程序?补贴入场,大家亏损,然后再涨价,一点新的创造力都没?投这些企业的意义是什么?","text":"为什么国内的互联网企业就喜欢卷这些应用程序?补贴入场,大家亏损,然后再涨价,一点新的创造力都没?投这些企业的意义是什么?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/405385664462880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":405277920514264,"gmtCreate":1739968980834,"gmtModify":1739968982555,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519254194891755","idStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SA B 20年前说到现在","listText":"SA B 20年前说到现在","text":"SA B 20年前说到现在","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/405277920514264","repostId":"2512510574","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2512510574","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1739965407,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2512510574?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-19 19:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"增长放缓,投资者过于乐观,亚马逊隐忧频现!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2512510574","media":"美股研究社","summary":"虽然 SMA 显示该股仍存在长期看涨势头,但亚马逊的短期走势可能令人担忧,因为 EMA 即将出现看跌交叉,而布林带明确证实上升趋势已经结束。总体而言,该指引较弱,因为预计收入增长将放缓,且营业收入增长也将大幅减弱。如上所述,目前,收入增长略低于平均水平,并处于令人担忧的下行趋势。此外,指引显示,2025 年第一季度的增长将进一步放缓,并将处于多年来的低点。尽管如此,与同行相比,亚马逊的估值可能被高估。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>“</strong><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>目前的估值适中。</strong>”</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdLpnkcwO2SlbEuMicbUvKD0H3ezZfxhQQbcicAxKRRnhBrPvBoTsXE6oOzecd2CerGPUkb22ypbKE6Q/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdL1dCEleVlqliaiafMCJJ7gf5W9micvoGodUycJF7R8ADrdm2nGwQyBYjPL0qpEuo2R7ibr7Vdj11tBgA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>作者 | Bay Area Ideas</strong></p><p><strong>编译 | 华尔街大事件</strong></p><p><strong>自11月份以来,亚马逊公司 (NASDAQ: AMZN )已上涨近 10%。就基本面而言,最近的收益显示出弹性,<span>每股收益</span>强劲,但收入增长略低于预期。</strong>在他们的指引中,他们表明,<strong>预计收入增长将进一步放缓,预计 2025 年第一季度的<span>营业收入</span>增长也将大幅下降。</strong>在分析了相对于增长和行业的 P/S 和 P/E 比率后,分析师得出结论,该股目前被中度高估。由于技术面转为净看跌,且股价目前有点高估。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdL1dCEleVlqliaiafMCJJ7gf5SeUUE7860JooH1I6c4LcrVH4SibeyqoicKvF0xdvONuL1bSURzo8OACg/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p>亚马逊股价最近突破了自 10 月底开始的上涨趋势。这条<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>在多个场合都提供了非常强劲的支撑,因此这次<span>跌破</span>是一个重大事件。该股尚未形成明显的下跌趋势,因此这很可能意味着涨幅放缓或出现一些横向漂移。然而,展望未来,前一条上涨趋势线可能成为阻力。</p><p><strong>亚马逊有两个重要的近期<span>支撑位</span>。第一个支撑位在 220 左右,是 12 月中下旬的关键支撑位,应该是该股最近的支撑位。另一个支撑位在 210 左右,是 11 月的主要<span>阻力位</span>,但在 1 月是支撑位。</strong></p><p><strong>除了前一条上升趋势线外,目前股价上方还有另外两个阻力位。</strong>较近的一个阻力位在 230 点下方,是 12 月和几天前的阻力位,也是 1 月底的支撑位。另一个阻力位是成交量较大的重大下行缺口。股价可能难以突破该区域。</p><p>总体而言,这张图表对亚马逊来说是中性的。该股不再处于上升趋势,但这可能只是意味着涨幅可能已经下降。支撑和阻力也相当平衡,因为前一个上升趋势线的相关性将随着它继续向上倾斜而降低。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdL1dCEleVlqliaiafMCJJ7gf5463H9mJpjrvb5r58GGPOhmIpxibnMr8xhrTgE7p7uhd36EjyEXj9iceQ/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p>过去六个月中,50 日均线一直位于 200 日均线之上,表明该股长期看涨势头持续。<span>均线</span>之间的差距已大幅扩大,表明势头强劲。尽管股价跌破上升趋势线,但仍高于两条均线,目前似乎在 50 日均线处获得一些支撑。</p><p>目前,9 日 EMA 和 21 日 EMA 似乎处于同一水平,但鉴于 9 日 EMA 的负向轨迹非常明显,看跌交叉可能即将出现,反映出该股近期的疲软。该股目前的交易价格低于两条 EMA,但仍然相对接近,因此在看跌交叉后,EMA 之间的差距可能不会迅速扩大。</p><p><strong>该股最近跌破布林带中线,这是另一个疲软信号。</strong>这也证实了该股的上涨趋势可能已经结束。目前,布林带正处于波动性收缩阶段,因此即使该股从这里开始横向交易,也可能出现超卖。因此,近期可能会出现超卖反弹。</p><p>虽然 SMA 显示该股仍存在长期看涨势头,但亚马逊的短期走势可能令人担忧,因为 EMA 即将出现看跌交叉,而布林带明确证实上升趋势已经结束。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdL1dCEleVlqliaiafMCJJ7gf59uiaeHzicDMTFog0v8t2soeFedCgticZT8IFh3PYibarEzA6zXlxbJl1rA/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p>本月初,MACD 跌破信号线,发出看跌信号。线与线之间的差距也显著扩大,如看跌的直方图所示。这表明该股近期的看跌势头正在加速。本月初,MACD 在历史高点期间也出现了负向背离,因为 MACD 未能达到 12 月高点的最佳水平。</p><p>RSI 近期跌破 50 水平,目前读数为 47.46。这表明空头现在略微控制了该股。与 MACD 一样,RSI 也显示出历史高点的看跌背离,因为它也未能创下比 12 月高点更高的峰值。</p><p>从 1 月底到 2 月初,随机指标出现大量交叉,但最近终于出现了明显的看跌交叉,%K 跌破 %D,正好位于超买的 80 区域。交叉后,两条线均跌破 50 水平,表明空头占据主导地位。事实上,%K 线已跌至 20 区域,表明目前存在稳固的看跌控制。</p><p><strong>这些指标对亚马逊股票来说都是压倒性的看跌。</strong>MACD 显示近期看跌势头加速,RSI 跌破 50,随机指标 %K 显示该股极度疲软。从长期来看,MACD 和 RSI 均显示本月早些时候创下历史新高的看跌背离,因此即使是长期投资者也应对该股保持谨慎。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdL1dCEleVlqliaiafMCJJ7gf5u6ibQeKGPGSKP6qfFCgicXmLEpdDIPXesNLUIZSloHROeCicd0ekZhTicw/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>亚马逊本月初发布了2024 年第四季度的收益,整体业绩可观。</strong>他们报告称,营收为 1878 亿美元,同比增长 10%,摊薄后 GAAP 每股收益为 1.86 美元,高于去年同期的 1.00 美元。对于至关重要的 AWS 部门,营收同比增长 19% 至 288 亿美元,反映出业绩具有韧性但不出色。如上图所示,目前的收入增长大约在过去三年的平均水平,甚至可能略低于平均水平。自 2024 年初以来,收入增长似乎确实处于下降趋势,因此这可能有点令人担忧。就每股收益而言,第四季度的业绩是过去三年中最好的,并且延续了这一数字的上升趋势。与普遍预期相比,他们的表现也非常强劲,收入超出预期 5.6326 亿美元,每股收益超出预期 0.38 美元。</p><p>亚马逊在其收益报告中提供了 2025 年第一季度的指引。他们表示,<strong>预计第一季度的收入将在 1510 亿美元至 1555 亿美元之间,这反映了 5% 至 9% 的同比增长。</strong>因此,该指引意味着收入增长预计将进一步减速,并表明该数字的下降趋势将继续。然而,他们确实表示,该指引中包含了异常大的不利外汇影响,因此减速在一定程度上不受公司的控制。亚马逊还提供了第一季度 140 亿美元至 180 亿美元之间的营业收入指引,由于 2024 年第一季度营业收入为 153 亿美元,该指引意味着增长率在 -8.5% 至 17.6% 之间。第四季度营业收入为 212 亿美元,同比增长 60.6%,因此该指引也显示该数字的增长大幅减弱。总体而言,该指引较弱,因为预计收入增长将放缓,且营业收入增长也将大幅减弱。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdL1dCEleVlqliaiafMCJJ7gf5oR7HTjGqIleqjNXx7ibyD0ufcFvq3FrUlzW6P2LRKFlJlcTzUrsjIdg/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>目前的市销率远高于过去三年的平均水平</strong>,因为其 3.843 的读数较 2024 年初的 3.0 以下水平有大幅增长。我认为这一比率表明亚马逊股票被严重高估,因为它似乎与收入增长高度脱节。如上所述,目前,收入增长略低于平均水平,并处于令人担忧的下行趋势。此外,指引显示,2025 年第一季度的增长将进一步放缓,并将处于多年来的低点。这些不是你会与市销率大幅扩张联系起来的结果。因此,这个比率表明相对于基本面而言被严重高估。目前非必需消费品行业的平均市销率为0.99,虽然由于他们的 AWS 业务可能存在一些可比性问题,但该股仍比同行有大幅溢价,这也可能表明估值过高。</p><p>市盈率目前为 41.35,与市销率不同,截至目前,它实际上远低于平均水平。该比率始于 2024 年,远高于 50 的水平,因此自那时以来出现了显着的倍数收缩。这个比率显示了亚马逊股票更公平的估值。如上所述,每股收益目前处于强劲上升趋势,第四季度同比增长率高达 86%。在指引中,他们没有提供第一季度的每股收益预测,但从营业收入指引来看,可以推断,每股收益增长在第一季度也可能大幅放缓。即使是这样,我仍然预计每股收益增长总体上将处于弹性水平。因此,市盈率远低于平均水平可能表明亚马逊的每股收益增长存在一定程度的低估。该行业的平均市盈率目前为 19.97,由于亚马逊在云计算领域的主导地位值得大幅溢价,因此该数字可能再次存在一些可比性问题。尽管如此,与同行相比,亚马逊的估值可能被高估。</p><p><strong>亚马逊目前的估值适中。</strong>市销率与收入增长明显脱节,因为该比率有所扩大,但增长正在放缓,而且市盈率也远高于该行业。就市盈率而言,该比率表明,与历史每股收益数据相比,该股票实际上相当便宜,但该比率仍远高于其行业,因此,该比率总体上显示出公平估值。总的来说,这些比率反映了亚马逊股票的适度高估。</p><p>在上面的分析中,技术面已对亚马逊股票产生净看跌影响。虽然图表相对中性且 SMA 仍然强劲,但大多数迹象表明该股未来可能走弱。就基本面而言,收益具有弹性但总体上并不令人鼓舞,每股收益强劲,但收入增长处于可能令人担忧的下行趋势中。指引总体上看跌,因为对收入和营业收入的预测较弱。如上所述,P/S 和 P/E 倍数一起显示股票被适度高估。因此,由于技术和基本面相对不具吸引力,分析师将亚马逊的评级下调至卖出。</p><p>【如需和我们交流可后台回复“进群”加社群】</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdJlQNwm5fnHWnfblqB1P5B3gLTjg6j6dT5IyOFclcldYqPQickKMUqicdaXvibXdEb4OibV97CAwGO6TQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdINMNSa4Col1mWNkYY9WyMrrJswRSEF8cpHQicJo4tfSTFa6Z3rAnT2PZrthVUrfLj18tAYRrVu6Wg/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/dR7EpbvovdLt0fplojSTcIf4vTY1fP5f5VhIsL3QI5iaHIficMHKVzpaxPOM0yB24Zgs1PJlLHXFs5UXKRic0iaTxA/640?wx_fmt=gif&from=appmsg\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>增长放缓,投资者过于乐观,亚马逊隐忧频现!</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n增长放缓,投资者过于乐观,亚马逊隐忧频现!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-19 19:43 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250219195621a24bd3d6&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“亚马逊目前的估值适中。”作者 | Bay Area Ideas编译 | 华尔街大事件自11月份以来,亚马逊公司 (NASDAQ: AMZN )已上涨近 10%。就基本面而言,最近的收益显示出弹性,每股收益强劲,但收入增长略低于预期。在他们的指引中,他们表明,预计收入增长将进一步放缓,预计 2025 年第一季度的营业收入增长也将大幅下降。在分析了相对于增长和行业的 P/S 和 P/E 比率后,...</p>\n\n<a 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Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250219195621a24bd3d6&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2512510574","content_text":"“亚马逊目前的估值适中。”作者 | Bay Area Ideas编译 | 华尔街大事件自11月份以来,亚马逊公司 (NASDAQ: AMZN )已上涨近 10%。就基本面而言,最近的收益显示出弹性,每股收益强劲,但收入增长略低于预期。在他们的指引中,他们表明,预计收入增长将进一步放缓,预计 2025 年第一季度的营业收入增长也将大幅下降。在分析了相对于增长和行业的 P/S 和 P/E 比率后,分析师得出结论,该股目前被中度高估。由于技术面转为净看跌,且股价目前有点高估。亚马逊股价最近突破了自 10 月底开始的上涨趋势。这条趋势线在多个场合都提供了非常强劲的支撑,因此这次跌破是一个重大事件。该股尚未形成明显的下跌趋势,因此这很可能意味着涨幅放缓或出现一些横向漂移。然而,展望未来,前一条上涨趋势线可能成为阻力。亚马逊有两个重要的近期支撑位。第一个支撑位在 220 左右,是 12 月中下旬的关键支撑位,应该是该股最近的支撑位。另一个支撑位在 210 左右,是 11 月的主要阻力位,但在 1 月是支撑位。除了前一条上升趋势线外,目前股价上方还有另外两个阻力位。较近的一个阻力位在 230 点下方,是 12 月和几天前的阻力位,也是 1 月底的支撑位。另一个阻力位是成交量较大的重大下行缺口。股价可能难以突破该区域。总体而言,这张图表对亚马逊来说是中性的。该股不再处于上升趋势,但这可能只是意味着涨幅可能已经下降。支撑和阻力也相当平衡,因为前一个上升趋势线的相关性将随着它继续向上倾斜而降低。过去六个月中,50 日均线一直位于 200 日均线之上,表明该股长期看涨势头持续。均线之间的差距已大幅扩大,表明势头强劲。尽管股价跌破上升趋势线,但仍高于两条均线,目前似乎在 50 日均线处获得一些支撑。目前,9 日 EMA 和 21 日 EMA 似乎处于同一水平,但鉴于 9 日 EMA 的负向轨迹非常明显,看跌交叉可能即将出现,反映出该股近期的疲软。该股目前的交易价格低于两条 EMA,但仍然相对接近,因此在看跌交叉后,EMA 之间的差距可能不会迅速扩大。该股最近跌破布林带中线,这是另一个疲软信号。这也证实了该股的上涨趋势可能已经结束。目前,布林带正处于波动性收缩阶段,因此即使该股从这里开始横向交易,也可能出现超卖。因此,近期可能会出现超卖反弹。虽然 SMA 显示该股仍存在长期看涨势头,但亚马逊的短期走势可能令人担忧,因为 EMA 即将出现看跌交叉,而布林带明确证实上升趋势已经结束。本月初,MACD 跌破信号线,发出看跌信号。线与线之间的差距也显著扩大,如看跌的直方图所示。这表明该股近期的看跌势头正在加速。本月初,MACD 在历史高点期间也出现了负向背离,因为 MACD 未能达到 12 月高点的最佳水平。RSI 近期跌破 50 水平,目前读数为 47.46。这表明空头现在略微控制了该股。与 MACD 一样,RSI 也显示出历史高点的看跌背离,因为它也未能创下比 12 月高点更高的峰值。从 1 月底到 2 月初,随机指标出现大量交叉,但最近终于出现了明显的看跌交叉,%K 跌破 %D,正好位于超买的 80 区域。交叉后,两条线均跌破 50 水平,表明空头占据主导地位。事实上,%K 线已跌至 20 区域,表明目前存在稳固的看跌控制。这些指标对亚马逊股票来说都是压倒性的看跌。MACD 显示近期看跌势头加速,RSI 跌破 50,随机指标 %K 显示该股极度疲软。从长期来看,MACD 和 RSI 均显示本月早些时候创下历史新高的看跌背离,因此即使是长期投资者也应对该股保持谨慎。亚马逊本月初发布了2024 年第四季度的收益,整体业绩可观。他们报告称,营收为 1878 亿美元,同比增长 10%,摊薄后 GAAP 每股收益为 1.86 美元,高于去年同期的 1.00 美元。对于至关重要的 AWS 部门,营收同比增长 19% 至 288 亿美元,反映出业绩具有韧性但不出色。如上图所示,目前的收入增长大约在过去三年的平均水平,甚至可能略低于平均水平。自 2024 年初以来,收入增长似乎确实处于下降趋势,因此这可能有点令人担忧。就每股收益而言,第四季度的业绩是过去三年中最好的,并且延续了这一数字的上升趋势。与普遍预期相比,他们的表现也非常强劲,收入超出预期 5.6326 亿美元,每股收益超出预期 0.38 美元。亚马逊在其收益报告中提供了 2025 年第一季度的指引。他们表示,预计第一季度的收入将在 1510 亿美元至 1555 亿美元之间,这反映了 5% 至 9% 的同比增长。因此,该指引意味着收入增长预计将进一步减速,并表明该数字的下降趋势将继续。然而,他们确实表示,该指引中包含了异常大的不利外汇影响,因此减速在一定程度上不受公司的控制。亚马逊还提供了第一季度 140 亿美元至 180 亿美元之间的营业收入指引,由于 2024 年第一季度营业收入为 153 亿美元,该指引意味着增长率在 -8.5% 至 17.6% 之间。第四季度营业收入为 212 亿美元,同比增长 60.6%,因此该指引也显示该数字的增长大幅减弱。总体而言,该指引较弱,因为预计收入增长将放缓,且营业收入增长也将大幅减弱。目前的市销率远高于过去三年的平均水平,因为其 3.843 的读数较 2024 年初的 3.0 以下水平有大幅增长。我认为这一比率表明亚马逊股票被严重高估,因为它似乎与收入增长高度脱节。如上所述,目前,收入增长略低于平均水平,并处于令人担忧的下行趋势。此外,指引显示,2025 年第一季度的增长将进一步放缓,并将处于多年来的低点。这些不是你会与市销率大幅扩张联系起来的结果。因此,这个比率表明相对于基本面而言被严重高估。目前非必需消费品行业的平均市销率为0.99,虽然由于他们的 AWS 业务可能存在一些可比性问题,但该股仍比同行有大幅溢价,这也可能表明估值过高。市盈率目前为 41.35,与市销率不同,截至目前,它实际上远低于平均水平。该比率始于 2024 年,远高于 50 的水平,因此自那时以来出现了显着的倍数收缩。这个比率显示了亚马逊股票更公平的估值。如上所述,每股收益目前处于强劲上升趋势,第四季度同比增长率高达 86%。在指引中,他们没有提供第一季度的每股收益预测,但从营业收入指引来看,可以推断,每股收益增长在第一季度也可能大幅放缓。即使是这样,我仍然预计每股收益增长总体上将处于弹性水平。因此,市盈率远低于平均水平可能表明亚马逊的每股收益增长存在一定程度的低估。该行业的平均市盈率目前为 19.97,由于亚马逊在云计算领域的主导地位值得大幅溢价,因此该数字可能再次存在一些可比性问题。尽管如此,与同行相比,亚马逊的估值可能被高估。亚马逊目前的估值适中。市销率与收入增长明显脱节,因为该比率有所扩大,但增长正在放缓,而且市盈率也远高于该行业。就市盈率而言,该比率表明,与历史每股收益数据相比,该股票实际上相当便宜,但该比率仍远高于其行业,因此,该比率总体上显示出公平估值。总的来说,这些比率反映了亚马逊股票的适度高估。在上面的分析中,技术面已对亚马逊股票产生净看跌影响。虽然图表相对中性且 SMA 仍然强劲,但大多数迹象表明该股未来可能走弱。就基本面而言,收益具有弹性但总体上并不令人鼓舞,每股收益强劲,但收入增长处于可能令人担忧的下行趋势中。指引总体上看跌,因为对收入和营业收入的预测较弱。如上所述,P/S 和 P/E 倍数一起显示股票被适度高估。因此,由于技术和基本面相对不具吸引力,分析师将亚马逊的评级下调至卖出。【如需和我们交流可后台回复“进群”加社群】","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":1,"USAW.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}