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函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
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函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
·
04-05 00:05
欧洲跌落
能源价格飙升，报道：欧盟五个成员国呼吁征收暴利税！
德国、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙、奥地利五国财长被曝联名致信欧盟委员会，呼吁对能源企业暴利征税。理由或是伊朗战争推高燃油价格，能源企业从中大幅获益。五国在信中表示，获利者应为减轻公众负担"尽一份力"。此前法国已单独要求欧盟管控炼油厂定价。
能源价格飙升，报道：欧盟五个成员国呼吁征收暴利税！
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函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
·
04-03 21:01
归根结底还是科技引领和科技跟随的差别，引领者掌握定价权，而跟随着丧失定价权。
这个财报季，财报成了最没用的东西
但这个财报季，它反倒制造了更多的困惑。不止这两家公司，在财报发布后，大量大厂的股价走势和业绩完全偏离。但在这个财报季，股东的价值似乎不是靠他的努力能实现的。但在财报发布后，泡泡玛特两个交易日下跌了近30%。在连续两个季度很一般的财报后，终于，在2025年第二季度，拼多多的收入和利润均超出市场预期，交出了一份漂亮的财报。
这个财报季，财报成了最没用的东西
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函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
·
03-27
$Aemetis Inc(AMTX)$
参与起来，占个C位
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函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
·
03-26
说和做都是果，聪明人要看因//
@卢律师 索尔古德曼
:不要看说了什么 要看做了什么
@卢律师 索尔古德曼：
不要看说了什么 要看做了什么
不要看说了什么 要看做了什么
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函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
·
03-25
达利欧既是投资家也是大学者，以忘我的精神为真知赋能，显而易见达利欧是个强者，而拥有达利欧这些人也使美国在衰败的路上要慢的多。
“美国例外主义”坍塌？拉扎德预警美元神话破裂，达利欧预言霍尔木兹决战重塑格局
“我认为我们回头重审2025年市场格局时，会一致认为那就是美国市场例外主义走向终结的正式开端，”他总结道。传奇投资人、桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧在个人专栏中警告称，美国和伊朗当前在霍尔木兹海峡的争夺将是一场“终极决战”——它不仅会改变石油价格，还会改变这个世界。达利欧表示，在苏伊士运河危机之后，英国的全球影响力迅速衰落。
“美国例外主义”坍塌？拉扎德预警美元神话破裂，达利欧预言霍尔木兹决战重塑格局
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函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
·
03-24
虚空夺牌
特朗普：伊朗已经同意不发展核武器，霍尔木兹海峡很快就会重新开放
3月23日，美国总统特朗普：如果计划见效，霍尔木兹海峡很快就会重新开放。霍尔木兹海峡将由多方共同管控。霍尔木兹海峡可能由我和阿亚图拉共同控制。一旦达成协议，油价就会直线下跌。我们目前已经与伊朗达成了15项共识，包括伊朗不会拥有核武器。
特朗普：伊朗已经同意不发展核武器，霍尔木兹海峡很快就会重新开放
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函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
·
03-23
不会在会上暗杀吧？确实不会
以高级官员：伊朗和美国本周将在巴基斯坦举行会谈
3月23日，以色列一位高级官员表示，本周晚些时候，伊朗和美国高级官员将在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡举行会谈。
以高级官员：伊朗和美国本周将在巴基斯坦举行会谈
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函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
·
03-19
要终生禁止再入网络主播行业，这样才有震慑力，否则换个马甲继续坑蒙拐骗。
抖音快手重拳整治直播造假：27万达人被清退
抖音、快手平台于2025年集中开展直播电商造假行为专项整治行动，重点打击虚假宣传、假冒伪劣、剧本炒作及AI仿冒名人等违规行为。平台同步前置拦截违规团伙2.2万个，处置效率提升45%。2025年累计识别拦截风险商品190万件，处置假货商品3万余件，治理风险商家1.58万个；极端风险商品日均拦截能力提升至3万以上，高风险类目错放漏放率降至0.47%。
抖音快手重拳整治直播造假：27万达人被清退
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函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
·
03-19
是债务危机
伊朗战争会是“美国金融危机”导火索吗？
霍尔木兹海峡封锁切断石油美元循环，每年数千亿中东资本或从AI产业链上撤离；与此同时，规模1.8万亿美元的美国私募信贷火药桶已从内部点燃——贝莱德冻结赎回、Apollo高管坦言贷款"能收回20美分就不错"。当战争从"四周速决"蔓延为第五个月，三重危机正向同一个引爆点狂奔。
伊朗战争会是“美国金融危机”导火索吗？
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函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
·
03-18
$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$
大多数时间 盈利的多少是和交易频次的多少成反比的。耐心等待挥杆机会，机会来时用力一击。
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id=\"id_3900909852\">法国此前已率先表态</h2><p>这并非欧盟内部首次出现类似声音。据彭博此前报道，法国已单独要求欧盟采取行动，确保炼油厂不对燃油过度收费。</p><p>法国的诉求与五国联名信方向一致，均指向能源企业在高油价环境下的定价行为。两者叠加，显示欧盟主要经济体正在形成合力，向欧盟委员会施加压力。</p><p>对市场而言，若欧盟层面的暴利税政策推进，欧洲能源企业的盈利预期将面临直接压力。目前政策尚处于呼吁阶段，欧盟委员会尚未作出正式回应。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>能源价格飙升，报道：欧盟五个成员国呼吁征收暴利税！</title>\n<style 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20:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>德国、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙、奥地利五国财长被曝联名致信欧盟委员会，呼吁对能源企业暴利征税。理由或是伊朗战争推高燃油价格，能源企业从中大幅获益。五国在信中表示，获利者应为减轻公众负担"尽一份力"。此前法国已单独要求欧盟管控炼油厂定价。</p></blockquote><p>伊朗战争推高油价，欧盟内部开始向能源企业"算账"。</p><p>据路透社4月4日报道，德国、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙和奥地利五国财长联名致信欧盟委员会，呼吁对能源企业的暴利征税。</p><p>五国在信中写道，采取此类行动将"向那些从战争后果中获利者传递明确信号，要求其为减轻公众负担尽一份力"。</p><h2 id=\"id_895473178\">五国为何联手施压？</h2><p>逻辑很直接：伊朗战争爆发后，国际油价上涨，能源企业利润随之膨胀。与此同时，普通消费者和企业承受着更高的燃油账单。</p><p>暴利税的核心逻辑，类似于"意外之财要分享"——当企业的盈利并非来自自身经营改善，而是源于外部冲突带来的价格红利，政府便有理由介入征税，将部分收益转移用于公共减负。</p><p>五国联名，意味着这一诉求在欧盟内部已具备相当的政治分量，但最终能否推进，仍取决于欧盟委员会的态度及其他成员国的立场。</p><h2 id=\"id_3900909852\">法国此前已率先表态</h2><p>这并非欧盟内部首次出现类似声音。据彭博此前报道，法国已单独要求欧盟采取行动，确保炼油厂不对燃油过度收费。</p><p>法国的诉求与五国联名信方向一致，均指向能源企业在高油价环境下的定价行为。两者叠加，显示欧盟主要经济体正在形成合力，向欧盟委员会施加压力。</p><p>对市场而言，若欧盟层面的暴利税政策推进，欧洲能源企业的盈利预期将面临直接压力。目前政策尚处于呼吁阶段，欧盟委员会尚未作出正式回应。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccaf5a00a23e698b11127b5df489f477","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769264","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2624690334","content_text":"德国、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙、奥地利五国财长被曝联名致信欧盟委员会，呼吁对能源企业暴利征税。理由或是伊朗战争推高燃油价格，能源企业从中大幅获益。五国在信中表示，获利者应为减轻公众负担\"尽一份力\"。此前法国已单独要求欧盟管控炼油厂定价。伊朗战争推高油价，欧盟内部开始向能源企业\"算账\"。据路透社4月4日报道，德国、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙和奥地利五国财长联名致信欧盟委员会，呼吁对能源企业的暴利征税。五国在信中写道，采取此类行动将\"向那些从战争后果中获利者传递明确信号，要求其为减轻公众负担尽一份力\"。五国为何联手施压？逻辑很直接：伊朗战争爆发后，国际油价上涨，能源企业利润随之膨胀。与此同时，普通消费者和企业承受着更高的燃油账单。暴利税的核心逻辑，类似于\"意外之财要分享\"——当企业的盈利并非来自自身经营改善，而是源于外部冲突带来的价格红利，政府便有理由介入征税，将部分收益转移用于公共减负。五国联名，意味着这一诉求在欧盟内部已具备相当的政治分量，但最终能否推进，仍取决于欧盟委员会的态度及其他成员国的立场。法国此前已率先表态这并非欧盟内部首次出现类似声音。据彭博此前报道，法国已单独要求欧盟采取行动，确保炼油厂不对燃油过度收费。法国的诉求与五国联名信方向一致，均指向能源企业在高油价环境下的定价行为。两者叠加，显示欧盟主要经济体正在形成合力，向欧盟委员会施加压力。对市场而言，若欧盟层面的暴利税政策推进，欧洲能源企业的盈利预期将面临直接压力。目前政策尚处于呼吁阶段，欧盟委员会尚未作出正式回应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FESXmain":1.5,"FSXEmain":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":549681057788616,"gmtCreate":1775221308644,"gmtModify":1775221311086,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"归根结底还是科技引领和科技跟随的差别，引领者掌握定价权，而跟随着丧失定价权。","listText":"归根结底还是科技引领和科技跟随的差别，引领者掌握定价权，而跟随着丧失定价权。","text":"归根结底还是科技引领和科技跟随的差别，引领者掌握定价权，而跟随着丧失定价权。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/549681057788616","repostId":"2624309606","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2624309606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1775197524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2624309606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-03 14:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"这个财报季，财报成了最没用的东西","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2624309606","media":"蓝鲸财经","summary":"但这个财报季，它反倒制造了更多的困惑。不止这两家公司，在财报发布后，大量大厂的股价走势和业绩完全偏离。但在这个财报季，股东的价值似乎不是靠他的努力能实现的。但在财报发布后，泡泡玛特两个交易日下跌了近30%。在连续两个季度很一般的财报后，终于，在2025年第二季度，拼多多的收入和利润均超出市场预期，交出了一份漂亮的财报。","content":"<html><body><blockquote><p>作者|略大参考 杨知潮</p></blockquote><p>财报和业绩会的作用是与公众沟通，向公众解惑。但这个财报季，它反倒制造了更多的困惑。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>业绩非常优秀，为何股价大跌10%？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>业绩只能算中规中矩，凭什么就能一度大涨10%？</p><p>不止这两家公司，在财报发布后，大量大厂的股价走势和业绩完全偏离。财报季，顾名思义是看财报的，但这个财报季，市场似乎压根不看财报。</p><p>01 腾讯和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手</a>：不搞AI嫌没有前景，搞AI嫌费钱</p><p>腾讯很可能是国内最看重股东利益的大厂，Pony经常强调，希望通过努力、创新，从而为腾讯股东带来价值。</p><p>但在这个财报季，股东的价值似乎不是靠他的努力能实现的。</p><p>毕竟腾讯在财报发布后的大跌，看起来根本不是财报的事：腾讯四季度收入同比增长13%、毛利同比增长19%。国内常青树游戏稳定，国际游戏大增。韧性足，增速快，盈利质量高。</p><p>一个成熟巨头，这样的财报显然已经超出优秀线了。</p><p>但市场似乎压根不看财报。腾讯财报发布后股价大跌超过6%，至今已经持续下跌约10%。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.jiemian.com/101/original/hainatemp/20260327/177460630031331600.png\" width=\"666\"/></p><p>图注：腾讯财报发布后，股价一路走低。</p><p>腾讯的财报有什么瑕疵呢？硬要找也是找得到的。</p><p>其中最大的瑕疵无疑是资本开支：在业绩会上，腾讯宣布将重投AI。管理层透露：今年在AI新产品上，腾讯的投入金额至少翻倍。地主家也没有余粮，腾讯的钱也不是无限的，所以Martin表示：“如果腾讯有足够的资源去支持AI发展的话，资本开销能达到公司预期，可能会适当减少回购。”</p><p>过去三年，市场经常质疑腾讯对AI过于保守，投入不足，创新缓慢。眼下，腾讯加大了投入，却又迎来股价下滑。</p><p>如果腾讯这只股票自己会说话，它一定很无语：不搞AI，市场觉得你保守，搞AI，市场嫌你乱花钱。但投入AI怎么可能不花钱？</p><p>快手也许也有相同的感觉。</p><p>它的财报不算完美，但还是超出了市场的预期，收入增速达到了12.5%，净利润同比增长16.5%，均创下新高。</p><p>AI概念，快手也不缺。程一笑透露：截至今年1月，可灵AI的年化收入运行率（ARR）已超过3亿美元。公司对可灵AI在2026年实现收入同比翻倍以上增长保持较强信心。</p><p>但第二个交易日，快手股价直接暴跌约14%。</p><p>如果一定要找点问题出来，它的直播收入出现下滑，用户数增长见顶，且日后不再公布GMV。但这是2026年，直播行业整体早就衰退了，互联网用户早就见顶了，电商行业早就集体隐藏GMV了。</p><p>这些理由，对14%的大跌来说足够充分吗？</p><p>更大的理由或许不在财报，而在业绩会，管理层透露：2026年计划投入260亿元资本开支用于AI算力建设。</p><p>腾讯和拼多多这样的大厂，因为对AI的投入相对保守，在很长时间里受到质疑。但当大厂真正投入AI后，市场又担心他们的现金流。</p><p>市场似乎在给大厂一道无解题：必须全力搞AI，但又不能大量花钱。</p><p>02 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>：符合预期，暴跌30%</p><p>一个极其正常的财报，却能带来接近30%的暴跌，即便在这个“乱跌”的财报季，也是一种奇观。</p><p>如果一定要为泡泡玛特的暴跌找个理由的话，答案可能不是空头，而是极端的多头。</p><p>从今年年初开始，全世界就有非常多的钱涌入做空泡泡玛特。人们认为这是一个郁金香的存在，会很快过气。</p><p>做空资金最多的时候，占成交的比例接近40%，多个海外机构连续发布做空报告，比如伯恩斯坦分析师认为这家企业全靠LABUBU一个IP，别的IP都是“借光”，消费者看LABUBU没货了，才会退而求其次购买。</p><p>有机构认为，这家公司的业绩高点就在2025年Q3，2026年甚至可能会出现同比下滑。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.jiemian.com/101/original/hainatemp/20260327/177460630029160700.jpg\" width=\"1080\"/></p><p>图注：2026年泡泡玛特，最不缺的就是空头。</p><p>他们的做空成功了吗？很长时间都是失败的。泡泡玛特股价在今年一度超过250港币，很多空头亏的血本无归。</p><p>但空头处心积虑，有时候不如多头太高的预期。</p><p>3月25日发布的财报显示，泡泡玛特的收入为371.2亿人民币，调整后净利润大约为130亿人民币。</p><p>这个业绩非常中规中矩，超过10家券商的预期本来就在这个数字范围内，不算好也不坏。</p><p>但在财报发布后，泡泡玛特两个交易日下跌了近30%。</p><p>真正的杀手，可能不是空头，而是多头：比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>，他们预测泡泡玛特的净利润达到140亿人民币。看似只多了几亿元，但泡泡玛特前三季度业绩都已发布，10亿的偏差其实全“挤”在四季度，是非常大的高估。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>的净利润预计倒还好，但目标价给到了惊人的384.5港元。至于普通投资者中，拥有着不切实际的高估者，更是数不胜数。</p><p>低预期没有搞崩泡泡玛特，高预期却做到了，在这些看多的资金眼中，这是一份不合格的财报。</p><p>3月25日当天，摩根大通卖出了173万股泡泡玛特，摩根士丹利卖出了133万股，构成了当日下跌的巨大推手。</p><p>——吹的时候最厉害，跑得最快。这让人想起饭圈所说的：“极端的粉丝是最大的黑子。”</p><p>业绩会上，王宁又为下跌“加了把火”。他对未来业绩指引的回答充满严谨：努力做到不低于20%的增长。</p><p>这是王宁一贯的风格，他对未来的业绩指引向来保守，2024年时，他的指引还是同比增长50%，但第二年，泡泡玛特完成了这个目标两倍的成绩。</p><p>这种对市场预期的管理，也是泡泡玛特屡屡超出预期的关键。</p><p>但讲话要看语境，在这个恐慌的市场背景下，这句话起到了相反的作用：泡泡玛特的跌幅扩大，从10%逼近20%。</p><p>相比于财报发布前的高点，泡泡玛特的市值已经接近腰斩，尽管泡泡玛特没什么变化——几个月前大量机构就已经预计它的利润就是这些，它的护城河、战略方向也都没有变化，但它的市值还是少了快一半。</p><p>03 拼多多和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>：预期管理比财报还重要？</p><p>相比之下，拼多多的“预期管理”能力显得更强一些。</p><p>泡泡玛特的业绩会上，多位管理层穿着西服打着领带，非常正式。而拼多多的业绩会只有音频，并且高管的话筒还“炸麦”了。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.jiemian.com/101/original/hainatemp/20260327/177460630032657200.png\" width=\"805\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img.jiemian.com/101/original/hainatemp/20260327/177460630021815800.png\" width=\"1027\"/></p><p>管理层的一大段发言后，听众似乎只能听见电流声，以及隐约的三个字：“拼多多”，似乎在说这个麦克是从拼多多买的。</p><p>但对拼多多股东来说，管理层的麦炸了也许是个“利好”。</p><p>因为过去几个季度，这家公司的管理层的发言一直比较“利空”：拼多多在2024年8月份的二季度业绩会堪称中国互联网财报季的里程碑，高管在业绩会上明确表示拼多多未来几年不会分红。</p><p>这一发言让拼多多股价一度大跌28%。</p><p>此后，拼多多的策略开始调整，牺牲短期利润的同时，将大量真金白银补贴给消费者和商家，营销费用越来越高，货币化率越来越低，最终利润一路走低。</p><p>在连续两个季度很一般的财报后，终于，在2025年第二季度，拼多多的收入和利润均超出市场预期，交出了一份漂亮的财报。股价在盘前一度上涨。</p><p>但管理层在业绩会上再次表示：不认为该季度的利润可以持续。这一句话，让拼多多盘前上涨的股价转跌。</p><p>对拼多多的股东来说，管理层不说话就是利好。但这事也有两面性：最有杀伤力的不是甜言蜜语，而是预期管理。</p><p>一个人如果每天都骂你，有一天不骂，你就会非常感恩。这就是拼多多这份财报的背景：大家的预期都很低。于是，当拼多多净利润只下滑了11%时，市场并不悲观，反倒是为经营利润8%的增长感到欣喜。</p><p>管理层在业绩会的发言也显得十分和蔼，比如在被问道海外风险时，管理层回答道：</p><p>当前的监管整治为我们进入下一个阶段的成长奠定了好的基础，同时也会为我们在这种快速变化的国际政治政策环境下的这种模式迭代指明方向。</p><p>看似套路化，但也许只有当过拼多多的股东，才明白这种发言背后的“温柔”。</p><p>要挑刺，拼多多财报也有很多瑕疵：腾讯和快手对AI大幅度投入，拼多多也有一个超过百亿的重资产项目：新拼姆。看名字就知道，这是一个类似山姆或者Costco的自营零售生意。</p><p>拼多多的确没有AI基础设施的大量建设，但这种自营的零售商非常消耗现金，利润率也不如拼多多APP的平台模式。</p><p>快手存在用户增长的放缓，但拼多多的广告营销收入增速同样放缓。交易型收入大涨背后，是海外业务、买菜等利润率偏低的业务占比提升。</p><p>或许市场对拼多多的期望更少？</p><p>市场期望更少的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>，早在2月13日，美团就发布了盈利预警，盈利数据基本是明牌。既然基本明牌，那就没什么利好和利空。在这个大家集体暴跌的财报季，美团上涨了10%左右，财报发布后股价基本保持稳定——大家都暴跌，不跌就算涨了。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.jiemian.com/101/original/hainatemp/20260327/177460630032374400.png\" width=\"735\"/></p><p>最终，业绩向好的腾讯、快手发布财报后大跌，利润不增长的拼多多和美团却能表现坚挺，实在是不符合常规的逻辑。</p><p>而如果一定要为这个财报季找一个主线逻辑的话，最合适的答案可能是：没有逻辑。毕竟在这个冲突不断，AI的威胁带来人心惶惶的时期，情绪的力量似乎比逻辑更强大。 </p></body></html>","source":"lanjinger_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>这个财报季，财报成了最没用的东西</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n这个财报季，财报成了最没用的东西\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-03 14:25 北京时间 <a href=https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1774607330672315522><strong>蓝鲸财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者|略大参考 杨知潮财报和业绩会的作用是与公众沟通，向公众解惑。但这个财报季，它反倒制造了更多的困惑。腾讯业绩非常优秀，为何股价大跌10%？拼多多业绩只能算中规中矩，凭什么就能一度大涨10%？不止这两家公司，在财报发布后，大量大厂的股价走势和业绩完全偏离。财报季，顾名思义是看财报的，但这个财报季，市场似乎压根不看财报。01 腾讯和快手：不搞AI嫌没有前景，搞AI嫌费钱腾讯很可能是国内最看重股东...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1774607330672315522\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"81024":"快手-WR","LU0880133367.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND CHINA OPPORTUNITY USD \"P\" (SGD) ACC","LU0572939691.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 SGD","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999013353.USD":"SCHRODER ASIAN INCOME FUND\"A\" (USDHDG) INC","LU1102505929.USD":"FIDELITY SUSTAINABLE EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","BK4526":"热门中概股","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","IE0008368411.USD":"FSSA ASIAN GROWTH \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00B031HW06.USD":"FSSA ASIAN GROWTH \"I\" (USD) INC","IE00BQXX3F31.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (USD) ACC","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" 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ACC","BK4110":"抵押房地产投资信托","LU2462611646.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS REAL ASSETS TARGET INCOME \"A2\" (USD) INC MTI","LU0516422366.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Focus Equities A Acc SGD","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","IE00B543WZ88.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1774607330672315522","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2624309606","content_text":"作者|略大参考 杨知潮财报和业绩会的作用是与公众沟通，向公众解惑。但这个财报季，它反倒制造了更多的困惑。腾讯业绩非常优秀，为何股价大跌10%？拼多多业绩只能算中规中矩，凭什么就能一度大涨10%？不止这两家公司，在财报发布后，大量大厂的股价走势和业绩完全偏离。财报季，顾名思义是看财报的，但这个财报季，市场似乎压根不看财报。01 腾讯和快手：不搞AI嫌没有前景，搞AI嫌费钱腾讯很可能是国内最看重股东利益的大厂，Pony经常强调，希望通过努力、创新，从而为腾讯股东带来价值。但在这个财报季，股东的价值似乎不是靠他的努力能实现的。毕竟腾讯在财报发布后的大跌，看起来根本不是财报的事：腾讯四季度收入同比增长13%、毛利同比增长19%。国内常青树游戏稳定，国际游戏大增。韧性足，增速快，盈利质量高。一个成熟巨头，这样的财报显然已经超出优秀线了。但市场似乎压根不看财报。腾讯财报发布后股价大跌超过6%，至今已经持续下跌约10%。图注：腾讯财报发布后，股价一路走低。腾讯的财报有什么瑕疵呢？硬要找也是找得到的。其中最大的瑕疵无疑是资本开支：在业绩会上，腾讯宣布将重投AI。管理层透露：今年在AI新产品上，腾讯的投入金额至少翻倍。地主家也没有余粮，腾讯的钱也不是无限的，所以Martin表示：“如果腾讯有足够的资源去支持AI发展的话，资本开销能达到公司预期，可能会适当减少回购。”过去三年，市场经常质疑腾讯对AI过于保守，投入不足，创新缓慢。眼下，腾讯加大了投入，却又迎来股价下滑。如果腾讯这只股票自己会说话，它一定很无语：不搞AI，市场觉得你保守，搞AI，市场嫌你乱花钱。但投入AI怎么可能不花钱？快手也许也有相同的感觉。它的财报不算完美，但还是超出了市场的预期，收入增速达到了12.5%，净利润同比增长16.5%，均创下新高。AI概念，快手也不缺。程一笑透露：截至今年1月，可灵AI的年化收入运行率（ARR）已超过3亿美元。公司对可灵AI在2026年实现收入同比翻倍以上增长保持较强信心。但第二个交易日，快手股价直接暴跌约14%。如果一定要找点问题出来，它的直播收入出现下滑，用户数增长见顶，且日后不再公布GMV。但这是2026年，直播行业整体早就衰退了，互联网用户早就见顶了，电商行业早就集体隐藏GMV了。这些理由，对14%的大跌来说足够充分吗？更大的理由或许不在财报，而在业绩会，管理层透露：2026年计划投入260亿元资本开支用于AI算力建设。腾讯和拼多多这样的大厂，因为对AI的投入相对保守，在很长时间里受到质疑。但当大厂真正投入AI后，市场又担心他们的现金流。市场似乎在给大厂一道无解题：必须全力搞AI，但又不能大量花钱。02 泡泡玛特：符合预期，暴跌30%一个极其正常的财报，却能带来接近30%的暴跌，即便在这个“乱跌”的财报季，也是一种奇观。如果一定要为泡泡玛特的暴跌找个理由的话，答案可能不是空头，而是极端的多头。从今年年初开始，全世界就有非常多的钱涌入做空泡泡玛特。人们认为这是一个郁金香的存在，会很快过气。做空资金最多的时候，占成交的比例接近40%，多个海外机构连续发布做空报告，比如伯恩斯坦分析师认为这家企业全靠LABUBU一个IP，别的IP都是“借光”，消费者看LABUBU没货了，才会退而求其次购买。有机构认为，这家公司的业绩高点就在2025年Q3，2026年甚至可能会出现同比下滑。图注：2026年泡泡玛特，最不缺的就是空头。他们的做空成功了吗？很长时间都是失败的。泡泡玛特股价在今年一度超过250港币，很多空头亏的血本无归。但空头处心积虑，有时候不如多头太高的预期。3月25日发布的财报显示，泡泡玛特的收入为371.2亿人民币，调整后净利润大约为130亿人民币。这个业绩非常中规中矩，超过10家券商的预期本来就在这个数字范围内，不算好也不坏。但在财报发布后，泡泡玛特两个交易日下跌了近30%。真正的杀手，可能不是空头，而是多头：比如摩根大通，他们预测泡泡玛特的净利润达到140亿人民币。看似只多了几亿元，但泡泡玛特前三季度业绩都已发布，10亿的偏差其实全“挤”在四季度，是非常大的高估。摩根士丹利的净利润预计倒还好，但目标价给到了惊人的384.5港元。至于普通投资者中，拥有着不切实际的高估者，更是数不胜数。低预期没有搞崩泡泡玛特，高预期却做到了，在这些看多的资金眼中，这是一份不合格的财报。3月25日当天，摩根大通卖出了173万股泡泡玛特，摩根士丹利卖出了133万股，构成了当日下跌的巨大推手。——吹的时候最厉害，跑得最快。这让人想起饭圈所说的：“极端的粉丝是最大的黑子。”业绩会上，王宁又为下跌“加了把火”。他对未来业绩指引的回答充满严谨：努力做到不低于20%的增长。这是王宁一贯的风格，他对未来的业绩指引向来保守，2024年时，他的指引还是同比增长50%，但第二年，泡泡玛特完成了这个目标两倍的成绩。这种对市场预期的管理，也是泡泡玛特屡屡超出预期的关键。但讲话要看语境，在这个恐慌的市场背景下，这句话起到了相反的作用：泡泡玛特的跌幅扩大，从10%逼近20%。相比于财报发布前的高点，泡泡玛特的市值已经接近腰斩，尽管泡泡玛特没什么变化——几个月前大量机构就已经预计它的利润就是这些，它的护城河、战略方向也都没有变化，但它的市值还是少了快一半。03 拼多多和美团：预期管理比财报还重要？相比之下，拼多多的“预期管理”能力显得更强一些。泡泡玛特的业绩会上，多位管理层穿着西服打着领带，非常正式。而拼多多的业绩会只有音频，并且高管的话筒还“炸麦”了。管理层的一大段发言后，听众似乎只能听见电流声，以及隐约的三个字：“拼多多”，似乎在说这个麦克是从拼多多买的。但对拼多多股东来说，管理层的麦炸了也许是个“利好”。因为过去几个季度，这家公司的管理层的发言一直比较“利空”：拼多多在2024年8月份的二季度业绩会堪称中国互联网财报季的里程碑，高管在业绩会上明确表示拼多多未来几年不会分红。这一发言让拼多多股价一度大跌28%。此后，拼多多的策略开始调整，牺牲短期利润的同时，将大量真金白银补贴给消费者和商家，营销费用越来越高，货币化率越来越低，最终利润一路走低。在连续两个季度很一般的财报后，终于，在2025年第二季度，拼多多的收入和利润均超出市场预期，交出了一份漂亮的财报。股价在盘前一度上涨。但管理层在业绩会上再次表示：不认为该季度的利润可以持续。这一句话，让拼多多盘前上涨的股价转跌。对拼多多的股东来说，管理层不说话就是利好。但这事也有两面性：最有杀伤力的不是甜言蜜语，而是预期管理。一个人如果每天都骂你，有一天不骂，你就会非常感恩。这就是拼多多这份财报的背景：大家的预期都很低。于是，当拼多多净利润只下滑了11%时，市场并不悲观，反倒是为经营利润8%的增长感到欣喜。管理层在业绩会的发言也显得十分和蔼，比如在被问道海外风险时，管理层回答道：当前的监管整治为我们进入下一个阶段的成长奠定了好的基础，同时也会为我们在这种快速变化的国际政治政策环境下的这种模式迭代指明方向。看似套路化，但也许只有当过拼多多的股东，才明白这种发言背后的“温柔”。要挑刺，拼多多财报也有很多瑕疵：腾讯和快手对AI大幅度投入，拼多多也有一个超过百亿的重资产项目：新拼姆。看名字就知道，这是一个类似山姆或者Costco的自营零售生意。拼多多的确没有AI基础设施的大量建设，但这种自营的零售商非常消耗现金，利润率也不如拼多多APP的平台模式。快手存在用户增长的放缓，但拼多多的广告营销收入增速同样放缓。交易型收入大涨背后，是海外业务、买菜等利润率偏低的业务占比提升。或许市场对拼多多的期望更少？市场期望更少的是美团，早在2月13日，美团就发布了盈利预警，盈利数据基本是明牌。既然基本明牌，那就没什么利好和利空。在这个大家集体暴跌的财报季，美团上涨了10%左右，财报发布后股价基本保持稳定——大家都暴跌，不跌就算涨了。最终，业绩向好的腾讯、快手发布财报后大跌，利润不增长的拼多多和美团却能表现坚挺，实在是不符合常规的逻辑。而如果一定要为这个财报季找一个主线逻辑的话，最合适的答案可能是：没有逻辑。毕竟在这个冲突不断，AI的威胁带来人心惶惶的时期，情绪的力量似乎比逻辑更强大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"81024":0.6,"03690":1.85,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"TCEHY":1.95,"01024":1.88,"PMRTY":1.94,"AIYY":0.6,"00700":1.95,"TCHmain":0.6,"MPNGY":1.85,"PDDL":0.6,"KPDD":0.6,"09992":1.94,"PDD":1.91,"KSTmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":547228526760192,"gmtCreate":1774624194631,"gmtModify":1774624196482,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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要看做了什么","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546637790061592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":546307464172536,"gmtCreate":1774385209076,"gmtModify":1774385211997,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"达利欧既是投资家也是大学者，以忘我的精神为真知赋能，显而易见达利欧是个强者，而拥有达利欧这些人也使美国在衰败的路上要慢的多。","listText":"达利欧既是投资家也是大学者，以忘我的精神为真知赋能，显而易见达利欧是个强者，而拥有达利欧这些人也使美国在衰败的路上要慢的多。","text":"达利欧既是投资家也是大学者，以忘我的精神为真知赋能，显而易见达利欧是个强者，而拥有达利欧这些人也使美国在衰败的路上要慢的多。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546307464172536","repostId":"2621938400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2621938400","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1774363555,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2621938400?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-24 22:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“美国例外主义”坍塌？拉扎德预警美元神话破裂，达利欧预言霍尔木兹决战重塑格局","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2621938400","media":"智通财经","summary":"“我认为我们回头重审2025年市场格局时，会一致认为那就是美国市场例外主义走向终结的正式开端，”他总结道。传奇投资人、桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧在个人专栏中警告称，美国和伊朗当前在霍尔木兹海峡的争夺将是一场“终极决战”——它不仅会改变石油价格，还会改变这个世界。达利欧表示，在苏伊士运河危机之后，英国的全球影响力迅速衰落。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，来自国际资管巨头拉扎德的资深市场策略师罗恩·坦普尔(Ron Temple)表示，2025年就已经标志着“美国市场例外主义”论调走向终结的正式开端;坦普尔表示，随着全球投资者重新评估美国资产，美元持续且长期走弱以及美债面临国际资金持续抛售导致收益率曲线变陡都将是极大概率里程碑事件。坦普尔关于投资策略的未来展望往往都能在金融市场掀起热议，他曾经精准预测2024年日本央行加息终结负利率时机，在2025年成功预判新兴市场股市大幅跑赢美国以及发达市场股市。</p><p>坦普尔在周二接受媒体采访时警告称，投资者们应考虑大幅减少对美国股票资产的配置规模/实际敞口，转而增配那些此前跌幅更深的股票市场，例如日本股市以及一些经济韧性十足的新兴市场的股票资产。</p><p>过去十多年，“美国例外论”席卷全球，美国市场的投资者们长期享受到了全球最佳回报，但是自2025年以来“美国例外论”可谓出现重大裂痕，特朗普政府重磅发起或拟推行的一系列激进的对外加征关税贸易政策以及频繁引发地缘政治冲突局势，令越来越多投资者担忧美国经济陷入“滞胀”甚至“深度衰退”风险，这也是2025年以来美债资产持续走弱的核心逻辑。</p><p>坦普尔还强调，债券市场具有至关重要的意义，并指出美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特曾反复表示，债券市场，尤其是10年期美债收益率轨迹是本届美国政府的首要关注点。坦普尔解释道：“美国债券市场最终确实会成为那种必须重点关注的关键市场，因为更高债券收益率带来的影响会向整个经济以及所有其他资产市场迅速传导。”</p><p>这位策略师指出，自2月下旬以来，短期美国国债收益率大幅上升，其中美国两年期国债收益率(US2Y)足足上升了50个基点，英国收益率则飙升了近100个基点。</p><p>他指出，市场此前一直在预期降息，但这种预期如今已经被市场彻底排除，因此发达市场的收益率曲线都趋于平坦化。</p><p>展望未来美债市场，坦普尔预计，由于财政压力不断上升，收益率曲线将变得更陡，这些压力包括美国以及更多北约成员国更高的国防支出，中东地区可能愈发升级的国防军工开支，以及美国政府持续存在的高昂财政赤字与日益庞大的利息支出。“按我个人的预期，美国未来十年的财政赤字每年都将达到GDP的6.5%到8%，”他强调，并补充称，这最终将对股票市场构成长期负面催化因素。</p><p>坦普尔还对美元避险地位的削弱表达了浓厚担忧情绪。尽管这种长期以来避险属性货币在近期愈发紧张的全球地缘政治紧张局势中持续上涨，但其涨幅已经开始消退。“我认为我们回头重审2025年市场格局时，会一致认为那就是美国市场例外主义走向终结的正式开端，”他总结道。</p><p>谈到能源价格时，坦普尔指出，汽油期货几乎已经翻倍，从年初每加仑仅仅1.70美元大幅升至目前大约3美元，这在美国中期选举前带来了重大的政治压力。</p><p>他表示，本届美国政府清楚自己有能力影响市场，并可能正在利用这种杠杆驱动力来缓解美国经济压力;不过他也警告称，市场对当前紧张地缘政治局势能够多快得到全面解决，以及霍尔木兹海峡多久能够重启与霍尔木兹海峡最终控制权预期可能“过于乐观”。</p><p><strong>达利欧：霍尔木兹海峡终极决战，将决定全球权力格局</strong></p><p>伊朗军队事实上已将霍尔木兹海峡“准封锁”，意味着全球约20%能源流动全面受阻，并伴随油轮攻击与航运中断，国际能源署(IEA)近日研究报告显示，2月底美国、以色列打击伊朗的军事行动，引发了全球石油市场历史上最大规模的供应中断;与此同时，美国政府正在考虑通过军事手段(包括潜在地面或准地面控制哈尔克岛)恢复航运通道并彻底掌控霍尔木兹海峡。</p><p>布伦特原油已经持续徘徊并且愈发企稳在每桶110美元附近，已不再是短暂的狂野飙升——意味着高油价可能是一个持续性的重大威胁，投资者、央行政策制定者以及企业领袖们都不得不正视这一现实。据悉，哈尔克岛是伊朗最大原油出口基地，伊朗90%的原油从这里出口。</p><p>过去一个月，金融市场一直在艰难消化这场地缘政治战争及其引发的能源供应危机冲击带来的一系列后果。尤其是市场滞胀风险急剧上升，加息预期不断被前置，股市和债市同步暴跌。美元重新确立了其避险地位，而股票市场的交易员们则在国防军工股、可再生能源以及马来西亚能源资产等领域寻找有选择性的机会。</p><p>周一，亚洲股市可谓首当其冲遭遇重挫，MSCI<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002540\">亚太</a>指数跌幅超过3%，并正迈向进入技术性回调区间。全球债券市场同样因愈发高企油价之下的滞胀预期升级而大幅下跌，而在通胀与滞胀担忧不断升温之际，黄金已抹去今年以来逾半数涨幅。欧洲股市也同样走向显著回调，但是在特朗普已指示暂停对伊朗发电厂和能源基础设施的一切军事打击为期五天之后，欧洲与北美股指周一集体大涨，WTI与布伦特原油价格跌幅扩大。</p><p>传奇投资人、桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧在个人专栏中警告称，美国和伊朗当前在霍尔木兹海峡的争夺将是一场“终极决战”——它不仅会改变石油价格，还会改变这个世界。达利欧表示，虽然不断有人谈论通过达成一份协议来结束这场战争，但美国和伊朗可能都知道，任何和平协议都无法解决这场战争，因为协议毫无价值。“接下来无论发生什么——无论是让霍尔木兹海峡继续留在伊朗手中，还是美国夺取控制权——都可能是冲突中最糟糕的某个阶段。这场最终决战将彻底决出胜负，而这场决战很可能规模巨大。”</p><p>达利欧表示，在苏伊士运河危机之后，英国的全球影响力迅速衰落。类似的情形也曾出现在荷兰<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00776\">帝国</a>和西班牙帝国的衰落过程中：当一个主导强国在关键<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00536\">贸易通</a>道的争夺中显露出无法维持秩序的能力时，全球资本、盟友以及政治力量往往会迅速重新站队。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“美国例外主义”坍塌？拉扎德预警美元神话破裂，达利欧预言霍尔木兹决战重塑格局</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“美国例外主义”坍塌？拉扎德预警美元神话破裂，达利欧预言霍尔木兹决战重塑格局\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-24 22:45 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1418323.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，来自国际资管巨头拉扎德的资深市场策略师罗恩·坦普尔(Ron Temple)表示，2025年就已经标志着“美国市场例外主义”论调走向终结的正式开端;坦普尔表示，随着全球投资者重新评估美国资产，美元持续且长期走弱以及美债面临国际资金持续抛售导致收益率曲线变陡都将是极大概率里程碑事件。坦普尔关于投资策略的未来展望往往都能在金融市场掀起热议，他曾经精准预测2024年日本央行加息终结负...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1418323.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cadcfb88697d09bb90cb85e829df2277","relate_stocks":{"BK4129":"建筑与工程","IEA":"Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives, Inc.","EEM":"新兴市场ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1418323.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2621938400","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，来自国际资管巨头拉扎德的资深市场策略师罗恩·坦普尔(Ron Temple)表示，2025年就已经标志着“美国市场例外主义”论调走向终结的正式开端;坦普尔表示，随着全球投资者重新评估美国资产，美元持续且长期走弱以及美债面临国际资金持续抛售导致收益率曲线变陡都将是极大概率里程碑事件。坦普尔关于投资策略的未来展望往往都能在金融市场掀起热议，他曾经精准预测2024年日本央行加息终结负利率时机，在2025年成功预判新兴市场股市大幅跑赢美国以及发达市场股市。坦普尔在周二接受媒体采访时警告称，投资者们应考虑大幅减少对美国股票资产的配置规模/实际敞口，转而增配那些此前跌幅更深的股票市场，例如日本股市以及一些经济韧性十足的新兴市场的股票资产。过去十多年，“美国例外论”席卷全球，美国市场的投资者们长期享受到了全球最佳回报，但是自2025年以来“美国例外论”可谓出现重大裂痕，特朗普政府重磅发起或拟推行的一系列激进的对外加征关税贸易政策以及频繁引发地缘政治冲突局势，令越来越多投资者担忧美国经济陷入“滞胀”甚至“深度衰退”风险，这也是2025年以来美债资产持续走弱的核心逻辑。坦普尔还强调，债券市场具有至关重要的意义，并指出美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特曾反复表示，债券市场，尤其是10年期美债收益率轨迹是本届美国政府的首要关注点。坦普尔解释道：“美国债券市场最终确实会成为那种必须重点关注的关键市场，因为更高债券收益率带来的影响会向整个经济以及所有其他资产市场迅速传导。”这位策略师指出，自2月下旬以来，短期美国国债收益率大幅上升，其中美国两年期国债收益率(US2Y)足足上升了50个基点，英国收益率则飙升了近100个基点。他指出，市场此前一直在预期降息，但这种预期如今已经被市场彻底排除，因此发达市场的收益率曲线都趋于平坦化。展望未来美债市场，坦普尔预计，由于财政压力不断上升，收益率曲线将变得更陡，这些压力包括美国以及更多北约成员国更高的国防支出，中东地区可能愈发升级的国防军工开支，以及美国政府持续存在的高昂财政赤字与日益庞大的利息支出。“按我个人的预期，美国未来十年的财政赤字每年都将达到GDP的6.5%到8%，”他强调，并补充称，这最终将对股票市场构成长期负面催化因素。坦普尔还对美元避险地位的削弱表达了浓厚担忧情绪。尽管这种长期以来避险属性货币在近期愈发紧张的全球地缘政治紧张局势中持续上涨，但其涨幅已经开始消退。“我认为我们回头重审2025年市场格局时，会一致认为那就是美国市场例外主义走向终结的正式开端，”他总结道。谈到能源价格时，坦普尔指出，汽油期货几乎已经翻倍，从年初每加仑仅仅1.70美元大幅升至目前大约3美元，这在美国中期选举前带来了重大的政治压力。他表示，本届美国政府清楚自己有能力影响市场，并可能正在利用这种杠杆驱动力来缓解美国经济压力;不过他也警告称，市场对当前紧张地缘政治局势能够多快得到全面解决，以及霍尔木兹海峡多久能够重启与霍尔木兹海峡最终控制权预期可能“过于乐观”。达利欧：霍尔木兹海峡终极决战，将决定全球权力格局伊朗军队事实上已将霍尔木兹海峡“准封锁”，意味着全球约20%能源流动全面受阻，并伴随油轮攻击与航运中断，国际能源署(IEA)近日研究报告显示，2月底美国、以色列打击伊朗的军事行动，引发了全球石油市场历史上最大规模的供应中断;与此同时，美国政府正在考虑通过军事手段(包括潜在地面或准地面控制哈尔克岛)恢复航运通道并彻底掌控霍尔木兹海峡。布伦特原油已经持续徘徊并且愈发企稳在每桶110美元附近，已不再是短暂的狂野飙升——意味着高油价可能是一个持续性的重大威胁，投资者、央行政策制定者以及企业领袖们都不得不正视这一现实。据悉，哈尔克岛是伊朗最大原油出口基地，伊朗90%的原油从这里出口。过去一个月，金融市场一直在艰难消化这场地缘政治战争及其引发的能源供应危机冲击带来的一系列后果。尤其是市场滞胀风险急剧上升，加息预期不断被前置，股市和债市同步暴跌。美元重新确立了其避险地位，而股票市场的交易员们则在国防军工股、可再生能源以及马来西亚能源资产等领域寻找有选择性的机会。周一，亚洲股市可谓首当其冲遭遇重挫，MSCI亚太指数跌幅超过3%，并正迈向进入技术性回调区间。全球债券市场同样因愈发高企油价之下的滞胀预期升级而大幅下跌，而在通胀与滞胀担忧不断升温之际，黄金已抹去今年以来逾半数涨幅。欧洲股市也同样走向显著回调，但是在特朗普已指示暂停对伊朗发电厂和能源基础设施的一切军事打击为期五天之后，欧洲与北美股指周一集体大涨，WTI与布伦特原油价格跌幅扩大。传奇投资人、桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧在个人专栏中警告称，美国和伊朗当前在霍尔木兹海峡的争夺将是一场“终极决战”——它不仅会改变石油价格，还会改变这个世界。达利欧表示，虽然不断有人谈论通过达成一份协议来结束这场战争，但美国和伊朗可能都知道，任何和平协议都无法解决这场战争，因为协议毫无价值。“接下来无论发生什么——无论是让霍尔木兹海峡继续留在伊朗手中，还是美国夺取控制权——都可能是冲突中最糟糕的某个阶段。这场最终决战将彻底决出胜负，而这场决战很可能规模巨大。”达利欧表示，在苏伊士运河危机之后，英国的全球影响力迅速衰落。类似的情形也曾出现在荷兰帝国和西班牙帝国的衰落过程中：当一个主导强国在关键贸易通道的争夺中显露出无法维持秩序的能力时，全球资本、盟友以及政治力量往往会迅速重新站队。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IEA":1,"EEM":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":545967632798136,"gmtCreate":1774302235319,"gmtModify":1774302237838,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"虚空夺牌","listText":"虚空夺牌","text":"虚空夺牌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/545967632798136","repostId":"1110644214","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110644214","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1774274741,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110644214?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-23 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22:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月23日，美国总统特朗普：如果计划见效，霍尔木兹海峡很快就会重新开放。霍尔木兹海峡将由多方共同管控。霍尔木兹海峡可能由我和阿亚图拉共同控制。一旦达成协议，油价就会直线下跌。我们目前已经与伊朗达成了15项共识，包括伊朗不会拥有核武器。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110644214","content_text":"3月23日，美国总统特朗普：如果计划见效，霍尔木兹海峡很快就会重新开放。霍尔木兹海峡将由多方共同管控。霍尔木兹海峡可能由我和阿亚图拉共同控制。一旦达成协议，油价就会直线下跌。我们目前已经与伊朗达成了15项共识，包括伊朗不会拥有核武器。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":545869916861968,"gmtCreate":1774278443905,"gmtModify":1774278446520,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不会在会上暗杀吧？确实不会","listText":"不会在会上暗杀吧？确实不会","text":"不会在会上暗杀吧？确实不会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/545869916861968","repostId":"1164785764","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164785764","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1774277594,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164785764?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-23 22:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以高级官员：伊朗和美国本周将在巴基斯坦举行会谈","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164785764","media":"央视新闻","summary":"3月23日，以色列一位高级官员表示，本周晚些时候，伊朗和美国高级官员将在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡举行会谈。 ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月23日，以色列一位高级官员表示，本周晚些时候，伊朗和美国高级官员将在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡举行会谈。 </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e45b331c8e6899ff1c308fee5e580a\" tg-width=\"1089\" tg-height=\"264\"/></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1568181200495","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以高级官员：伊朗和美国本周将在巴基斯坦举行会谈</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以高级官员：伊朗和美国本周将在巴基斯坦举行会谈\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-23 22:53 北京时间 <a href=https://ysxw.cctv.cn/article.html?toc_style_id=feeds_default&item_id=4411179193306264305&channelId=1119><strong>央视新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月23日，以色列一位高级官员表示，本周晚些时候，伊朗和美国高级官员将在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡举行会谈。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://ysxw.cctv.cn/article.html?toc_style_id=feeds_default&item_id=4411179193306264305&channelId=1119\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/492921a71a46ed6d9ca9d4d0824455f2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://ysxw.cctv.cn/article.html?toc_style_id=feeds_default&item_id=4411179193306264305&channelId=1119","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164785764","content_text":"3月23日，以色列一位高级官员表示，本周晚些时候，伊朗和美国高级官员将在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡举行会谈。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":544343517345760,"gmtCreate":1773921932306,"gmtModify":1773921935182,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"要终生禁止再入网络主播行业，这样才有震慑力，否则换个马甲继续坑蒙拐骗。","listText":"要终生禁止再入网络主播行业，这样才有震慑力，否则换个马甲继续坑蒙拐骗。","text":"要终生禁止再入网络主播行业，这样才有震慑力，否则换个马甲继续坑蒙拐骗。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544343517345760","repostId":"2618903237","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2618903237","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1773279483,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2618903237?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-12 09:38","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"抖音快手重拳整治直播造假：27万达人被清退","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2618903237","media":"DoNews","summary":"抖音、快手平台于2025年集中开展直播电商造假行为专项整治行动，重点打击虚假宣传、假冒伪劣、剧本炒作及AI仿冒名人等违规行为。平台同步前置拦截违规团伙2.2万个，处置效率提升45%。2025年累计识别拦截风险商品190万件，处置假货商品3万余件，治理风险商家1.58万个；极端风险商品日均拦截能力提升至3万以上，高风险类目错放漏放率降至0.47%。","content":"<html><body><article><p>抖音、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手</a>平台于2025年集中开展直播电商造假行为专项整治行动，重点打击虚假宣传、假冒伪劣、剧本炒作及AI仿冒名人等违规行为。</p><p>据抖音电商发布的《2025抖音电商安全与信任中心年度报告》，平台全年累计处置违规商家超20万个、违规商品132万个；清退严重违规商家1.65万个、严重违规达人27.1万名。虚假宣传主要集中在夸大产品功效、虚假承诺售后、虚假标注材质三类。平台同步前置拦截违规团伙2.2万个，处置效率提升45%。</p><p>快手电商发布《2025快手电商治理与体验报告》，实现从人工审核向AI大模型治理转型。平台构建内容治理大模型调控链路，对高风险商品全量回扫，风险漏放率降至0.1%，虚假宣传举报率下降35%。2025年累计识别拦截风险商品190万件，处置假货商品3万余件，治理风险商家1.58万个；极端风险商品日均拦截能力提升至3万以上，高风险类目错放漏放率降至0.47%。</p><p>典型案例包括：抖音助农网红“东北<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002562\">兄弟</a>”因虚构拥有200栋灵芝大棚、伪造有机产品认证，被罚20万元；网红柴怼怼两次因虚假宣传被处罚；辛巴旗下公司因同类违规被罚175万元；四川<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可乐</a>所属公司被罚28万元。快手网红金书亦在直播间宣称沙棘冻干粉可“治疗皮肤疾病”“外伤三天痊愈”，被查实存在误导性宣传，账号一度被封禁。快手网红程程虚构“无忧老祖”人设，以999元佛牌吊坠宣称具算卦、改运等功能，诱导中老年群体购买，相关账号已被平台封禁。</p><p>此外，AI技术滥用问题凸显：多名用户举报AI合成明星温峥嵘形象进行虚假直播带货，部分账号盗用其过往视频片段伪装实时直播，甚至拉黑本人留言；另有不法商家未经授权使用AI生成名人音视频推广劣质商品。上述行为均被纳入平台重点治理范畴。</p><p>两大平台通过升级风险感知体系、强化全链条闭环管理、提升多模态识别精度等手段，系统性压缩造假生存空间。整治行动明确释放信号：直播电商行业已进入强监管阶段，依赖剧本、话术与技术造假获取流量的模式难以为继。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>抖音快手重拳整治直播造假：27万达人被清退</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2026031209423197ae8f98&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"81024":"快手-WR","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","LU0244354667.USD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" ACC","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","LU1251922891.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU0456827905.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A (acc) SGD","LU0210526637.USD":"JPM CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1590":"短视频概念股","LU1303224171.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU1719994722.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" 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QV"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2026031209423197ae8f98&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2618903237","content_text":"抖音、快手平台于2025年集中开展直播电商造假行为专项整治行动，重点打击虚假宣传、假冒伪劣、剧本炒作及AI仿冒名人等违规行为。据抖音电商发布的《2025抖音电商安全与信任中心年度报告》，平台全年累计处置违规商家超20万个、违规商品132万个；清退严重违规商家1.65万个、严重违规达人27.1万名。虚假宣传主要集中在夸大产品功效、虚假承诺售后、虚假标注材质三类。平台同步前置拦截违规团伙2.2万个，处置效率提升45%。快手电商发布《2025快手电商治理与体验报告》，实现从人工审核向AI大模型治理转型。平台构建内容治理大模型调控链路，对高风险商品全量回扫，风险漏放率降至0.1%，虚假宣传举报率下降35%。2025年累计识别拦截风险商品190万件，处置假货商品3万余件，治理风险商家1.58万个；极端风险商品日均拦截能力提升至3万以上，高风险类目错放漏放率降至0.47%。典型案例包括：抖音助农网红“东北兄弟”因虚构拥有200栋灵芝大棚、伪造有机产品认证，被罚20万元；网红柴怼怼两次因虚假宣传被处罚；辛巴旗下公司因同类违规被罚175万元；四川可乐所属公司被罚28万元。快手网红金书亦在直播间宣称沙棘冻干粉可“治疗皮肤疾病”“外伤三天痊愈”，被查实存在误导性宣传，账号一度被封禁。快手网红程程虚构“无忧老祖”人设，以999元佛牌吊坠宣称具算卦、改运等功能，诱导中老年群体购买，相关账号已被平台封禁。此外，AI技术滥用问题凸显：多名用户举报AI合成明星温峥嵘形象进行虚假直播带货，部分账号盗用其过往视频片段伪装实时直播，甚至拉黑本人留言；另有不法商家未经授权使用AI生成名人音视频推广劣质商品。上述行为均被纳入平台重点治理范畴。两大平台通过升级风险感知体系、强化全链条闭环管理、提升多模态识别精度等手段，系统性压缩造假生存空间。整治行动明确释放信号：直播电商行业已进入强监管阶段，依赖剧本、话术与技术造假获取流量的模式难以为继。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"81024":0.6,"KSTmain":0.6,"01024":1.94}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":544284351731720,"gmtCreate":1773907488574,"gmtModify":1773907490750,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"是债务危机","listText":"是债务危机","text":"是债务危机","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544284351731720","repostId":"2620214523","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2620214523","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1773904288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2620214523?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-19 15:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊朗战争会是“美国金融危机”导火索吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2620214523","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"霍尔木兹海峡封锁切断石油美元循环，每年数千亿中东资本或从AI产业链上撤离；与此同时，规模1.8万亿美元的美国私募信贷火药桶已从内部点燃——贝莱德冻结赎回、Apollo高管坦言贷款\"能收回20美分就不错\"。当战争从\"四周速决\"蔓延为第五个月，三重危机正向同一个引爆点狂奔。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>一场远在中东的战争，正在精准地切断美国金融体系的“大动脉”。</p>\n<p>表面上看，霍尔木兹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>的封锁只是一场地缘政治引发的能源危机；但在水面之下，它正在阻断一条支撑全球资本市场运转数十年的隐秘血脉——石油美元循环。</p>\n<p>更为致命的是，大洋彼岸的美国，一个规模庞大的火药桶早已咝咝作响：美国私募信贷市场正以加速度恶化，消费贷款基金冻结赎回、华尔街巨头紧急撤回债务发行、行业高管公开预警。</p>\n<p>当“中东断流”撞上“华尔街失血”，两条危机线索正以向着同一个终点狂奔：一场酝酿中的美国金融危机。</p>\n<p>以色列与伊朗的互相袭击向核心能源设施蔓延，华尔街最初“冲突几周就会结束”的幻想正在破灭。如果伊朗战争继续拖长，危机可能在同一个点上引爆。</p>\n<h2>石油美元：AI繁荣背后的中东资本</h2>\n<p>要理解这场危机的深层逻辑，必须先看懂全球金融机器里隐秘的齿轮：石油美元循环（Petrocapital Cycle）。</p>\n<p>这个概念最早由经济学家el-Gamal和Jaffe系统提出：<strong>海湾产油国将卖石油赚来的天量美元，以投资的形式重新注入国际金融市场。这不仅防止了中东国家内部通胀过热，更为全球信贷体系提供了源源不断的流动性。</strong></p>\n<p>自1973年石油危机诞生以来，这套循环就是支撑全球金融运转的隐形基石。历史早已证明，一旦这根血管被掐断，代价将是灾难性的。</p>\n<p>1979年石油冲击叠加1980年两伊战争，海湾国家为了打仗，将巨额资本从国际银行体系中疯狂抽离。结果是拉美国家资金链断裂，直接酿成了1982年拉美主权债务危机——这是历史上第一次由“石油美元断流”引发的系统性金融危机。</p>\n<p>如今，这套循环的规模已膨胀到令人咋舌的地步。截至2025年11月，仅阿联酋金融业持有的资产规模就高达1.4万亿美元。</p>\n<p>更重要的是，中东的钱，去哪了？答案是：硅谷和华尔街。</p>\n<p><strong>当下最炙手可热的AI赛道，无论是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的芯片、OpenAI的估值，还是私募市场里疯狂扩张的科技软件贷款，背后都站着中东金主。</strong></p>\n<p>去年沙特王储萨勒曼访美，不仅承诺将对美投资从6000亿飙升至1万亿美元，更直接点名“AI芯片与算力”是核心。随后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>等科技巨头与沙特签下800亿美元的“尖端技术”投资协议；沙特DataVolt更是豪掷200亿美元砸向美国AI数据中心。</p>\n<p>换句话说，中东的石油美元，早就深度焊死在了美国AI产业的资本链条上。</p>\n<p>然而，2月28日，齿轮卡壳了。</p>\n<p>霍尔木兹海峡关闭，伊朗布设水雷。惠誉起初还乐观预测“封锁一个月冲击温和”，但现实狠狠打了脸：海峡不仅长期受阻，关键油气基础设施更遭到持续轰炸。</p>\n<p>石油美元这条流向美国资本市场的大动脉，正在被战争死死勒紧。</p>\n<h2>私募信贷：已在燃烧的火药桶</h2>\n<p>如果说中东是外部断流，那么美国金融体系内部，一场危机早已悄然成形。</p>\n<p>在伊朗战争爆发前，华尔街的私募信贷市场就已经踩在了悬崖边上。而亲手推它下悬崖的，正是中东资本疯狂追捧的AI。</p>\n<p>过去几年，私募信贷野蛮生长，他们最喜欢干的事，就是把钱借给被私募股权收购的科技软件（SaaS）公司，赚取高额利差。瑞银和巴克莱的数据揭示了一个恐怖的集中度：私募信贷的贷款簿里，商业服务和信息技术加起来占比高达55%。</p>\n<p><strong>这本是一场完美的资本游戏，直到Anthropic的Claude横空出世。</strong></p>\n<p>AI开始以摧枯拉朽之势颠覆传统软件公司的商业模式。SaaS公司股价暴跌，它们偿还贷款的现金流瞬间成了画饼。底层资产烂了，私募信贷的多米诺骨牌随之倒塌。</p>\n<p>看看这份“崩盘时间表”：</p>\n<blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li>2月3日：私募信贷股票崩跌，“SaaS末日”冲击波蔓延；</li>\n<li>2月21日：巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OBDE\">Blue Owl</a>出现异常赎回，被华尔街视为“矿井里的金丝雀”；</li>\n<li>2月26日：瑞银警告，创纪录的“连锁违约”即将到来；</li>\n<li>3月5日：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>（BlackRock）直接将一笔私人贷款从面值100硬生生砍到0；</li>\n<li>3月6日：全球最大资管公司贝莱德对260亿美元基金实施“关门打狗”（限制赎回）；</li>\n<li>3月11日：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>下调抵押品估值，直接限制对私募机构放贷。</li>\n</ul>\n</blockquote>\n<p>目前，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">黑石</a>、贝莱德、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>在内的巨头，已经面临超101亿美元的赎回挤兑，且只能勉强兑付70%。</p>\n<p>行业大佬的表态更是扯下了最后一块遮羞布。Apollo联席总裁John Zito在瑞银内部会议上直言：一家普通中小型软件公司的贷款，能收回20到40美分就算不错了。至于赎回潮会持续多久？“我也不知道。”</p>\n<p>摩根大通连夜撤回了Qualtrics 53亿美元的债务发行。美银分析师更是将当下的空气，闻出了2008年次贷危机的味道——“当年大家都说次级贷款只是局部问题，直到它掀翻了整个世界。”</p>\n<h2>战争时间表：越拖越危险</h2>\n<p>面对如此脆弱的金融底座，美股为什么还没崩？</p>\n<p>因为华尔街的精英们还在死守一个假设：这只是一场速战速决的局部冲突。</p>\n<p>最初，TS Lombard全球政治研究董事总经理Christopher Granville的基准预测是：冲突最多持续四到五周，市场扛得住。</p>\n<p>但这层窗户纸，在3月18日被彻底捅破。</p>\n<p>当天，以色列直接炸了伊朗最大的天然气田；作为报复，伊朗当晚用导弹端了卡塔尔拉斯拉凡工业城（重要能源枢纽）。</p>\n<p><strong>Granville连夜修改报告，将预测从“短暂冲击”直接上调为“类似2022年俄乌战争的五个月能源震荡”。</strong>他极其悲观地指出：重开海峡的方案大概率会失败。虽然特朗普为了大选不想看到高油价，但他那句“封锁海峡是其他国家的问题”，让美国尽早介入平息战火的可能性变得微乎其微。</p>\n<p>Arbroath Group管理合伙人Christopher Smart更是点出了一个让人绝望的现实：“即便明天奇迹般停火，世界也已经明白——全球20%石油的自由通行，取决于伊朗未来政府的心情。”</p>\n<p>瑞银策略师Bhanu Baweja发出了最后的警告：华尔街习惯了“政策一出问题美联储就会救市”的巨婴模式，但他们根本没有为一场持久战做好准备。如果冲突拖到4月，油价可能击穿150美元/桶。</p>\n<h2>三重危机交汇</h2>\n<p>将这三条线索交织在一起，一幅金融危机路线图徐徐展开：</p>\n<ol>\n<li>源头断水： 战争切断石油美元循环，抽干了原本流向美国AI和资本市场的中东流动性；</li>\n<li>内部失血： 规模高达1.8万亿美元的私募信贷市场，正在AI的冲击下面临生死重估，挤兑与违约相互踩踏；</li>\n<li>战争长期化： 战争长期化带来的高油价，将死死锁住美联储降息的空间，让本就脆弱的信贷环境雪上加霜。</li>\n</ol>\n<p>危机从来不会以人们预想的方式降临。它总是从一个看似遥远的局部冲突开始，顺着隐秘的资本血脉，最终在最繁华的金融中心，引发一场无人幸免的雪崩。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伊朗战争会是“美国金融危机”导火索吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-19 15:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>一场远在中东的战争，正在精准地切断美国金融体系的“大动脉”。</p>\n<p>表面上看，霍尔木兹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>的封锁只是一场地缘政治引发的能源危机；但在水面之下，它正在阻断一条支撑全球资本市场运转数十年的隐秘血脉——石油美元循环。</p>\n<p>更为致命的是，大洋彼岸的美国，一个规模庞大的火药桶早已咝咝作响：美国私募信贷市场正以加速度恶化，消费贷款基金冻结赎回、华尔街巨头紧急撤回债务发行、行业高管公开预警。</p>\n<p>当“中东断流”撞上“华尔街失血”，两条危机线索正以向着同一个终点狂奔：一场酝酿中的美国金融危机。</p>\n<p>以色列与伊朗的互相袭击向核心能源设施蔓延，华尔街最初“冲突几周就会结束”的幻想正在破灭。如果伊朗战争继续拖长，危机可能在同一个点上引爆。</p>\n<h2>石油美元：AI繁荣背后的中东资本</h2>\n<p>要理解这场危机的深层逻辑，必须先看懂全球金融机器里隐秘的齿轮：石油美元循环（Petrocapital Cycle）。</p>\n<p>这个概念最早由经济学家el-Gamal和Jaffe系统提出：<strong>海湾产油国将卖石油赚来的天量美元，以投资的形式重新注入国际金融市场。这不仅防止了中东国家内部通胀过热，更为全球信贷体系提供了源源不断的流动性。</strong></p>\n<p>自1973年石油危机诞生以来，这套循环就是支撑全球金融运转的隐形基石。历史早已证明，一旦这根血管被掐断，代价将是灾难性的。</p>\n<p>1979年石油冲击叠加1980年两伊战争，海湾国家为了打仗，将巨额资本从国际银行体系中疯狂抽离。结果是拉美国家资金链断裂，直接酿成了1982年拉美主权债务危机——这是历史上第一次由“石油美元断流”引发的系统性金融危机。</p>\n<p>如今，这套循环的规模已膨胀到令人咋舌的地步。截至2025年11月，仅阿联酋金融业持有的资产规模就高达1.4万亿美元。</p>\n<p>更重要的是，中东的钱，去哪了？答案是：硅谷和华尔街。</p>\n<p><strong>当下最炙手可热的AI赛道，无论是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的芯片、OpenAI的估值，还是私募市场里疯狂扩张的科技软件贷款，背后都站着中东金主。</strong></p>\n<p>去年沙特王储萨勒曼访美，不仅承诺将对美投资从6000亿飙升至1万亿美元，更直接点名“AI芯片与算力”是核心。随后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>等科技巨头与沙特签下800亿美元的“尖端技术”投资协议；沙特DataVolt更是豪掷200亿美元砸向美国AI数据中心。</p>\n<p>换句话说，中东的石油美元，早就深度焊死在了美国AI产业的资本链条上。</p>\n<p>然而，2月28日，齿轮卡壳了。</p>\n<p>霍尔木兹海峡关闭，伊朗布设水雷。惠誉起初还乐观预测“封锁一个月冲击温和”，但现实狠狠打了脸：海峡不仅长期受阻，关键油气基础设施更遭到持续轰炸。</p>\n<p>石油美元这条流向美国资本市场的大动脉，正在被战争死死勒紧。</p>\n<h2>私募信贷：已在燃烧的火药桶</h2>\n<p>如果说中东是外部断流，那么美国金融体系内部，一场危机早已悄然成形。</p>\n<p>在伊朗战争爆发前，华尔街的私募信贷市场就已经踩在了悬崖边上。而亲手推它下悬崖的，正是中东资本疯狂追捧的AI。</p>\n<p>过去几年，私募信贷野蛮生长，他们最喜欢干的事，就是把钱借给被私募股权收购的科技软件（SaaS）公司，赚取高额利差。瑞银和巴克莱的数据揭示了一个恐怖的集中度：私募信贷的贷款簿里，商业服务和信息技术加起来占比高达55%。</p>\n<p><strong>这本是一场完美的资本游戏，直到Anthropic的Claude横空出世。</strong></p>\n<p>AI开始以摧枯拉朽之势颠覆传统软件公司的商业模式。SaaS公司股价暴跌，它们偿还贷款的现金流瞬间成了画饼。底层资产烂了，私募信贷的多米诺骨牌随之倒塌。</p>\n<p>看看这份“崩盘时间表”：</p>\n<blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li>2月3日：私募信贷股票崩跌，“SaaS末日”冲击波蔓延；</li>\n<li>2月21日：巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OBDE\">Blue Owl</a>出现异常赎回，被华尔街视为“矿井里的金丝雀”；</li>\n<li>2月26日：瑞银警告，创纪录的“连锁违约”即将到来；</li>\n<li>3月5日：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>（BlackRock）直接将一笔私人贷款从面值100硬生生砍到0；</li>\n<li>3月6日：全球最大资管公司贝莱德对260亿美元基金实施“关门打狗”（限制赎回）；</li>\n<li>3月11日：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>下调抵押品估值，直接限制对私募机构放贷。</li>\n</ul>\n</blockquote>\n<p>目前，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">黑石</a>、贝莱德、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>在内的巨头，已经面临超101亿美元的赎回挤兑，且只能勉强兑付70%。</p>\n<p>行业大佬的表态更是扯下了最后一块遮羞布。Apollo联席总裁John Zito在瑞银内部会议上直言：一家普通中小型软件公司的贷款，能收回20到40美分就算不错了。至于赎回潮会持续多久？“我也不知道。”</p>\n<p>摩根大通连夜撤回了Qualtrics 53亿美元的债务发行。美银分析师更是将当下的空气，闻出了2008年次贷危机的味道——“当年大家都说次级贷款只是局部问题，直到它掀翻了整个世界。”</p>\n<h2>战争时间表：越拖越危险</h2>\n<p>面对如此脆弱的金融底座，美股为什么还没崩？</p>\n<p>因为华尔街的精英们还在死守一个假设：这只是一场速战速决的局部冲突。</p>\n<p>最初，TS Lombard全球政治研究董事总经理Christopher Granville的基准预测是：冲突最多持续四到五周，市场扛得住。</p>\n<p>但这层窗户纸，在3月18日被彻底捅破。</p>\n<p>当天，以色列直接炸了伊朗最大的天然气田；作为报复，伊朗当晚用导弹端了卡塔尔拉斯拉凡工业城（重要能源枢纽）。</p>\n<p><strong>Granville连夜修改报告，将预测从“短暂冲击”直接上调为“类似2022年俄乌战争的五个月能源震荡”。</strong>他极其悲观地指出：重开海峡的方案大概率会失败。虽然特朗普为了大选不想看到高油价，但他那句“封锁海峡是其他国家的问题”，让美国尽早介入平息战火的可能性变得微乎其微。</p>\n<p>Arbroath Group管理合伙人Christopher Smart更是点出了一个让人绝望的现实：“即便明天奇迹般停火，世界也已经明白——全球20%石油的自由通行，取决于伊朗未来政府的心情。”</p>\n<p>瑞银策略师Bhanu Baweja发出了最后的警告：华尔街习惯了“政策一出问题美联储就会救市”的巨婴模式，但他们根本没有为一场持久战做好准备。如果冲突拖到4月，油价可能击穿150美元/桶。</p>\n<h2>三重危机交汇</h2>\n<p>将这三条线索交织在一起，一幅金融危机路线图徐徐展开：</p>\n<ol>\n<li>源头断水： 战争切断石油美元循环，抽干了原本流向美国AI和资本市场的中东流动性；</li>\n<li>内部失血： 规模高达1.8万亿美元的私募信贷市场，正在AI的冲击下面临生死重估，挤兑与违约相互踩踏；</li>\n<li>战争长期化： 战争长期化带来的高油价，将死死锁住美联储降息的空间，让本就脆弱的信贷环境雪上加霜。</li>\n</ol>\n<p>危机从来不会以人们预想的方式降临。它总是从一个看似遥远的局部冲突开始，顺着隐秘的资本血脉，最终在最繁华的金融中心，引发一场无人幸免的雪崩。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bfb10b06725af696d5ea08c128fdad5","relate_stocks":{"BK4528":"SaaS概念","AIYY":"YIELDMAX AI OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4023":"应用软件","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion","XLE":"SPDR能源指数ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","AI":"C3.ai, Inc.","XOP":"油气开采指数ETF-SPDR S&P","BK4543":"AI","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767891","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2620214523","content_text":"一场远在中东的战争，正在精准地切断美国金融体系的“大动脉”。\n表面上看，霍尔木兹海峡的封锁只是一场地缘政治引发的能源危机；但在水面之下，它正在阻断一条支撑全球资本市场运转数十年的隐秘血脉——石油美元循环。\n更为致命的是，大洋彼岸的美国，一个规模庞大的火药桶早已咝咝作响：美国私募信贷市场正以加速度恶化，消费贷款基金冻结赎回、华尔街巨头紧急撤回债务发行、行业高管公开预警。\n当“中东断流”撞上“华尔街失血”，两条危机线索正以向着同一个终点狂奔：一场酝酿中的美国金融危机。\n以色列与伊朗的互相袭击向核心能源设施蔓延，华尔街最初“冲突几周就会结束”的幻想正在破灭。如果伊朗战争继续拖长，危机可能在同一个点上引爆。\n石油美元：AI繁荣背后的中东资本\n要理解这场危机的深层逻辑，必须先看懂全球金融机器里隐秘的齿轮：石油美元循环（Petrocapital Cycle）。\n这个概念最早由经济学家el-Gamal和Jaffe系统提出：海湾产油国将卖石油赚来的天量美元，以投资的形式重新注入国际金融市场。这不仅防止了中东国家内部通胀过热，更为全球信贷体系提供了源源不断的流动性。\n自1973年石油危机诞生以来，这套循环就是支撑全球金融运转的隐形基石。历史早已证明，一旦这根血管被掐断，代价将是灾难性的。\n1979年石油冲击叠加1980年两伊战争，海湾国家为了打仗，将巨额资本从国际银行体系中疯狂抽离。结果是拉美国家资金链断裂，直接酿成了1982年拉美主权债务危机——这是历史上第一次由“石油美元断流”引发的系统性金融危机。\n如今，这套循环的规模已膨胀到令人咋舌的地步。截至2025年11月，仅阿联酋金融业持有的资产规模就高达1.4万亿美元。\n更重要的是，中东的钱，去哪了？答案是：硅谷和华尔街。\n当下最炙手可热的AI赛道，无论是英伟达的芯片、OpenAI的估值，还是私募市场里疯狂扩张的科技软件贷款，背后都站着中东金主。\n去年沙特王储萨勒曼访美，不仅承诺将对美投资从6000亿飙升至1万亿美元，更直接点名“AI芯片与算力”是核心。随后，谷歌、甲骨文、AMD等科技巨头与沙特签下800亿美元的“尖端技术”投资协议；沙特DataVolt更是豪掷200亿美元砸向美国AI数据中心。\n换句话说，中东的石油美元，早就深度焊死在了美国AI产业的资本链条上。\n然而，2月28日，齿轮卡壳了。\n霍尔木兹海峡关闭，伊朗布设水雷。惠誉起初还乐观预测“封锁一个月冲击温和”，但现实狠狠打了脸：海峡不仅长期受阻，关键油气基础设施更遭到持续轰炸。\n石油美元这条流向美国资本市场的大动脉，正在被战争死死勒紧。\n私募信贷：已在燃烧的火药桶\n如果说中东是外部断流，那么美国金融体系内部，一场危机早已悄然成形。\n在伊朗战争爆发前，华尔街的私募信贷市场就已经踩在了悬崖边上。而亲手推它下悬崖的，正是中东资本疯狂追捧的AI。\n过去几年，私募信贷野蛮生长，他们最喜欢干的事，就是把钱借给被私募股权收购的科技软件（SaaS）公司，赚取高额利差。瑞银和巴克莱的数据揭示了一个恐怖的集中度：私募信贷的贷款簿里，商业服务和信息技术加起来占比高达55%。\n这本是一场完美的资本游戏，直到Anthropic的Claude横空出世。\nAI开始以摧枯拉朽之势颠覆传统软件公司的商业模式。SaaS公司股价暴跌，它们偿还贷款的现金流瞬间成了画饼。底层资产烂了，私募信贷的多米诺骨牌随之倒塌。\n看看这份“崩盘时间表”：\n\n\n2月3日：私募信贷股票崩跌，“SaaS末日”冲击波蔓延；\n2月21日：巨头Blue Owl出现异常赎回，被华尔街视为“矿井里的金丝雀”；\n2月26日：瑞银警告，创纪录的“连锁违约”即将到来；\n3月5日：贝莱德（BlackRock）直接将一笔私人贷款从面值100硬生生砍到0；\n3月6日：全球最大资管公司贝莱德对260亿美元基金实施“关门打狗”（限制赎回）；\n3月11日：摩根大通下调抵押品估值，直接限制对私募机构放贷。\n\n\n目前，包括黑石、贝莱德、摩根士丹利在内的巨头，已经面临超101亿美元的赎回挤兑，且只能勉强兑付70%。\n行业大佬的表态更是扯下了最后一块遮羞布。Apollo联席总裁John Zito在瑞银内部会议上直言：一家普通中小型软件公司的贷款，能收回20到40美分就算不错了。至于赎回潮会持续多久？“我也不知道。”\n摩根大通连夜撤回了Qualtrics 53亿美元的债务发行。美银分析师更是将当下的空气，闻出了2008年次贷危机的味道——“当年大家都说次级贷款只是局部问题，直到它掀翻了整个世界。”\n战争时间表：越拖越危险\n面对如此脆弱的金融底座，美股为什么还没崩？\n因为华尔街的精英们还在死守一个假设：这只是一场速战速决的局部冲突。\n最初，TS Lombard全球政治研究董事总经理Christopher Granville的基准预测是：冲突最多持续四到五周，市场扛得住。\n但这层窗户纸，在3月18日被彻底捅破。\n当天，以色列直接炸了伊朗最大的天然气田；作为报复，伊朗当晚用导弹端了卡塔尔拉斯拉凡工业城（重要能源枢纽）。\nGranville连夜修改报告，将预测从“短暂冲击”直接上调为“类似2022年俄乌战争的五个月能源震荡”。他极其悲观地指出：重开海峡的方案大概率会失败。虽然特朗普为了大选不想看到高油价，但他那句“封锁海峡是其他国家的问题”，让美国尽早介入平息战火的可能性变得微乎其微。\nArbroath Group管理合伙人Christopher Smart更是点出了一个让人绝望的现实：“即便明天奇迹般停火，世界也已经明白——全球20%石油的自由通行，取决于伊朗未来政府的心情。”\n瑞银策略师Bhanu Baweja发出了最后的警告：华尔街习惯了“政策一出问题美联储就会救市”的巨婴模式，但他们根本没有为一场持久战做好准备。如果冲突拖到4月，油价可能击穿150美元/桶。\n三重危机交汇\n将这三条线索交织在一起，一幅金融危机路线图徐徐展开：\n\n源头断水： 战争切断石油美元循环，抽干了原本流向美国AI和资本市场的中东流动性；\n内部失血： 规模高达1.8万亿美元的私募信贷市场，正在AI的冲击下面临生死重估，挤兑与违约相互踩踏；\n战争长期化： 战争长期化带来的高油价，将死死锁住美联储降息的空间，让本就脆弱的信贷环境雪上加霜。\n\n危机从来不会以人们预想的方式降临。它总是从一个看似遥远的局部冲突开始，顺着隐秘的资本血脉，最终在最繁华的金融中心，引发一场无人幸免的雪崩。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AIYY":0.6,"XOP":0.9,"FAZ":0.9,"XLE":0.9,"AI":0.74}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":543744887702328,"gmtCreate":1773775713278,"gmtModify":1773775716496,"author":{"id":"3544441872957647","authorId":"3544441872957647","name":"函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4602544b3ccc4c41a2be942e28cbf75","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544441872957647","idStr":"3544441872957647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ </a>大多数时间 盈利的多少是和交易频次的多少成反比的。耐心等待挥杆机会，机会来时用力一击。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ </a>大多数时间 盈利的多少是和交易频次的多少成反比的。耐心等待挥杆机会，机会来时用力一击。","text":"$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ 大多数时间 盈利的多少是和交易频次的多少成反比的。耐心等待挥杆机会，机会来时用力一击。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079c898b778e16352aaa09524944ae8","width":"1080","height":"2368"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/543744887702328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}