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- HYYOONGHYYOONG
  ·2021-09-03
  Fast fast shoot up ah!!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,419 评论
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- HYYOONGHYYOONG
  ·2021-08-31
  Zoom down!!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- HYYOONGHYYOONG
  ·2021-08-27
  We need the technoking!!!
  Can Tesla Shares Hit $900 Again This Year?<blockquote>特斯拉股价今年能否再次触及900美元？</blockquote>
  Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is picking up momentum again. After falling
  Can Tesla Shares Hit $900 Again This Year?<blockquote>特斯拉股价今年能否再次触及900美元？</blockquote>
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- HYYOONGHYYOONG
  ·2021-07-29
  Ready player one!!
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  2,302 评论
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- HYYOONGHYYOONG
  ·2021-07-10
  Not Gamestop or AMC? [Miser]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- HYYOONGHYYOONG
  ·2021-06-30
  How about salary spike?
  Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>这就是通胀飙升对股市的意义</blockquote>
  Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basi
  Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>这就是通胀飙升对股市的意义</blockquote>
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- HYYOONGHYYOONG
  ·2021-06-29
  S&P 500-to-BTC? New ratio?
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- HYYOONGHYYOONG
  ·2021-06-27
  No no, to the moon!!
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  2,389 评论
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- HYYOONGHYYOONG
  ·2021-06-26
  Crypto winter…
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- HYYOONGHYYOONG
  ·2021-06-21
  Housing market as tight as my wallet?
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,559 评论
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technoking!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810728834","repostId":"1161561973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161561973","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629991651,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161561973?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-26 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Tesla Shares Hit $900 Again This Year?<blockquote>特斯拉股价今年能否再次触及900美元？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161561973","media":"investing.com","summary":"Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is picking up momentum again. After falling","content":"<p><div> Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is picking up momentum again. After falling from a record high $900.40, hit intraday on Jan. 25, TSLA shares have gained 17% during the past ...</p><p><blockquote><div>电动汽车制造商特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）的股价再次上涨。在从1月25日盘中触及的900.40美元的历史新高下跌后，特斯拉股价在过去一段时间内上涨了17%...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1594375853987","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Tesla Shares Hit $900 Again This Year?<blockquote>特斯拉股价今年能否再次触及900美元？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Tesla Shares Hit $900 Again This Year?<blockquote>特斯拉股价今年能否再次触及900美元？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investing.com</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-26 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is picking up momentum again. After falling from a record high $900.40, hit intraday on Jan. 25, TSLA shares have gained 17% during the past ...</p><p><blockquote><div>电动汽车制造商特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）的股价再次上涨。在从1月25日盘中触及的900.40美元的历史新高下跌后，特斯拉股价在过去一段时间内上涨了17%...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">investing.com</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161561973","content_text":"Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is picking up momentum again. After falling from a record high $900.40, hit intraday on Jan. 25, TSLA shares have gained 17% during the past three months, outperforming the benchmark NASDAQ 100 Index.\nThe biggest question Tesla bulls now have is, whether, on top of the current gains, can the EV manufacturer's stock push through back to the all-time high of $900 this year?\nTesla Weekly Chart.\nGiven the highly volatile nature of the stock, it’s tough to predict whether the current Tesla rally has legs. But it’s important to note that the outlook for its car sales is becoming more uncertain than it was a year ago.\nFirst, the global chip shortage continues to cast doubt on Tesla’s ambitious sales targets for 2021. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk highlighted challenges that come from the unpredictability of chip supplies and the hurdles he expects in ramping production at two new factories in Austin, Texas, and Berlin, later this year.\nTesla again delayed delivery of its semi-trailer truck—already two years late. The first trucks of this type are now slated for 2022. The company attributed the delay to supply-chain issues and limited battery-cell supply, as well as management trying to focus on getting new factories online. The company’s plans for its first pickup truck, once expected to go to customers as early as this year, are also being affected by parts issues.\nThis is what Musk told analysts last month:\n\n “While we’re making cars at full speed, the global chip-shortage situation remains quite serious. For the rest of this year, our growth rate will be determined by the slowest part in our supply chain.”\n\nRegulatory Probe\nBesides the risks to the market’s earnings consensus for this fiscal year, Tesla is facing a regulatory probe that could result in a massive recall.\nThe U.S.opened a formal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system last week after almost a dozen collisions involving first-responder vehicles. In the last seven years, Tesla has charged clients thousands of dollars for this feature.\nThe probe by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) covers an estimated 765,000 Tesla Model Y, X, S and 3 vehicles from the 2014 model year onward. The regulator—which has the power to deem cars defective and order recalls—said it launched the investigation after 11 crashes that resulted in 17 injuries and one fatality.\nBloomberg reported that Tesla has been criticized for years for labeling the system in a potentially misleading way. Since late 2016, it has marketed this higher-level functionality feature as Full Self-Driving Capability. In reality, Autopilot is a driver-assistance system that maintains vehicles’ speed and keeps them centered in lanes when engaged, though the driver is supposed to supervise at all times.\nTesla now sells that package of features—often referred to as FSD—for $10,000 or $199 a month.\nAfter the NHTSA launched of the probe, two Democratic senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to also investigate Tesla over the company’s advertising of its Autopilot and FSD technology.\nIn a letter last Wednesday, Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut and Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts asked FTC Chair Lina Khan to examine whether Tesla used “potentially deceptive and unfair practices” in its marketing of those technologies.\n“We fear that Tesla’s Autopilot and FSD features are not as mature and reliable as the company pitches to the public,” they wrote, pointing to comments from Musk, as well as a 2019 YouTube video entitled “Full Self-Driving” and has a link to Tesla’s site.\nHighlighting these risks and how they could affect Tesla’s current stock price, however, shouldn’t hide the fact that there are many analysts who continue to remain bullish on TSLA. Piper Sandler reiterated its overweight rating on the stock and its price target of $1,200 this month.\nIn a note, analysts Alexander Potter and Winnie Dong said:\n\n “Bottom line: We still really like this stock. Tesla is still the driving force behind higher [battery electric vehicle] penetration globally.”\n\nBottom Line\nIt’s difficult to predict the future course for Tesla stock given the huge amount of speculative interest in this name. But recent developments show that it will be quite hard for the EV automaker to exceed expectations in this tough manufacturing environment.\nInvestors should trade this name with caution.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801694864,"gmtCreate":1627513933458,"gmtModify":1633764358314,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ready player one!!","listText":"Ready player one!!","text":"Ready player one!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801694864","repostId":"1171529765","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141707836,"gmtCreate":1625889808525,"gmtModify":1633936331842,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not Gamestop or AMC? [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Not Gamestop or AMC? [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Not Gamestop or AMC? [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141707836","repostId":"1177397700","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153970239,"gmtCreate":1625008066321,"gmtModify":1633946034706,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How about salary spike?","listText":"How about salary spike?","text":"How about salary spike?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153970239","repostId":"1180006824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180006824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624979545,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180006824?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>这就是通胀飙升对股市的意义</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180006824","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basi","content":"<p>Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis</p><p><blockquote>关于通胀对成长股和价值股的短期影响的预期没有历史依据</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11ddc0063c90ff3e9f3bfe11e8ad739\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"850\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Don’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.</p><p><blockquote>不要指望最新的通胀数据来帮助您把握美国股市近期涨跌的时机。</blockquote></p><p> That’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.</p><p><blockquote>这一点值得记住，因为根据最近的经验，你可以情有可原地认为通货膨胀在股市的短期波动中发挥着重要作用。例如，在4月中旬至5月中旬的通胀恐慌期间，价值股的表现优于成长股——正如传统观点所预期的那样。5月中旬以来，通胀担忧消退，价值股表现落后。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>事情并不总是这么顺利。事实上，我找不到通胀的短期趋势与整个股市的表现或价值型和成长型股票的相对表现之间有任何值得注意的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> To search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找这种相关性，我首先分析了耶鲁大学金融学教授罗伯特·希勒(Robert Shiller)自1871年以来的每月通胀、利率和股市数据。我计算了从过去一个月到过去12个月的不同短期时期内通胀与标普500之间的相关系数。</blockquote></p><p> I largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&amp;P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&amp;P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)</p><p><blockquote>我基本上一无所获。考虑CPI的变化在多大程度上解释或预测了标普500的同时变化（通过称为r平方的统计数据来衡量）。无论1个月到12个月之间的时间范围如何，自1871年以来，CPI（或其前身）能够预测的标普500波动不超过4%。（请注意，在衡量这些相关性时，我关注的是标普500经通胀调整后的总回报，以免影响我的计算。）</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.</p><p><blockquote>缺乏强相关性的原因之一是股市与通胀又爱又恨。当投资者更担心经济疲软，甚至通缩时，更高的通胀有时被视为一件好事。在其他时候，通货膨胀和股票呈负相关。</blockquote></p><p> This fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.</p><p><blockquote>下图说明了这种波动的相关性，该图表跟踪了过去12个月CPI与标普500经通胀调整后的总回报之间的相关系数。注意没有任何一致的关系。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ac0cc9ed7a8d766f3308cbf6daeaf5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"882\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.</p><p><blockquote>为了仔细检查这个令人惊讶的结论，我重新运行了我的分析，重点是利率而不是CPI。这很有启发性，因为利率不仅反映了近期通胀的变化，还反映了预期的未来通胀。短期利率变动与股市之间的相关性甚至比我关注通胀时还要弱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Value vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀和利率上升时的价值与增长</b></blockquote></p><p> What about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?</p><p><blockquote>价值相对于增长的表现如何？从历史上看，它肯定遵循了我们在过去几个月中看到的相同模式吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不是这样的。为了得出这个违反直觉的结论，我分析了自1926年以来美国价值型和成长型股票的月回报率，数据来自达特茅斯学院金融学教授肯·弗伦奇。（具体来说，价值股投资组合包含美国市场账面/市值比率最低的30%，而成长股投资组合包含此类比率最高的30%。）当关注从1个月到12个月的所有跟踪时间段时，我发现通货膨胀与价值股和成长股的相对表现之间没有统计上显着的相关性。</blockquote></p><p> Even more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.</p><p><blockquote>更令人惊讶的是，当我关注利率和价值相对于增长的表现之间的关系时，我发现了负相关。这与我们过去几个月所看到的恰恰相反，也与传统智慧告诉我们的价值股在利率上升的环境中应该如何表现的观点相反。</blockquote></p><p> My analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.</p><p><blockquote>我的分析并不表明投资者现在应该反其道而行之，在之前押注增长时押注价值，反之亦然。这一分析的要点是，一方面，通货膨胀和利率与股票市场和价值相对于增长的表现之间存在不稳定且往往微不足道的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> Short-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.</p><p><blockquote>短期股市计时器需要在其他地方寻找有关市场走向的更强有力的线索。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>这就是通胀飙升对股市的意义</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>这就是通胀飙升对股市的意义</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis</p><p><blockquote>关于通胀对成长股和价值股的短期影响的预期没有历史依据</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11ddc0063c90ff3e9f3bfe11e8ad739\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"850\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Don’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.</p><p><blockquote>不要指望最新的通胀数据来帮助您把握美国股市近期涨跌的时机。</blockquote></p><p> That’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.</p><p><blockquote>这一点值得记住，因为根据最近的经验，你可以情有可原地认为通货膨胀在股市的短期波动中发挥着重要作用。例如，在4月中旬至5月中旬的通胀恐慌期间，价值股的表现优于成长股——正如传统观点所预期的那样。5月中旬以来，通胀担忧消退，价值股表现落后。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>事情并不总是这么顺利。事实上，我找不到通胀的短期趋势与整个股市的表现或价值型和成长型股票的相对表现之间有任何值得注意的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> To search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找这种相关性，我首先分析了耶鲁大学金融学教授罗伯特·希勒(Robert Shiller)自1871年以来的每月通胀、利率和股市数据。我计算了从过去一个月到过去12个月的不同短期时期内通胀与标普500之间的相关系数。</blockquote></p><p> I largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&amp;P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&amp;P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)</p><p><blockquote>我基本上一无所获。考虑CPI的变化在多大程度上解释或预测了标普500的同时变化（通过称为r平方的统计数据来衡量）。无论1个月到12个月之间的时间范围如何，自1871年以来，CPI（或其前身）能够预测的标普500波动不超过4%。（请注意，在衡量这些相关性时，我关注的是标普500经通胀调整后的总回报，以免影响我的计算。）</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.</p><p><blockquote>缺乏强相关性的原因之一是股市与通胀又爱又恨。当投资者更担心经济疲软，甚至通缩时，更高的通胀有时被视为一件好事。在其他时候，通货膨胀和股票呈负相关。</blockquote></p><p> This fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.</p><p><blockquote>下图说明了这种波动的相关性，该图表跟踪了过去12个月CPI与标普500经通胀调整后的总回报之间的相关系数。注意没有任何一致的关系。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ac0cc9ed7a8d766f3308cbf6daeaf5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"882\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.</p><p><blockquote>为了仔细检查这个令人惊讶的结论，我重新运行了我的分析，重点是利率而不是CPI。这很有启发性，因为利率不仅反映了近期通胀的变化，还反映了预期的未来通胀。短期利率变动与股市之间的相关性甚至比我关注通胀时还要弱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Value vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀和利率上升时的价值与增长</b></blockquote></p><p> What about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?</p><p><blockquote>价值相对于增长的表现如何？从历史上看，它肯定遵循了我们在过去几个月中看到的相同模式吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不是这样的。为了得出这个违反直觉的结论，我分析了自1926年以来美国价值型和成长型股票的月回报率，数据来自达特茅斯学院金融学教授肯·弗伦奇。（具体来说，价值股投资组合包含美国市场账面/市值比率最低的30%，而成长股投资组合包含此类比率最高的30%。）当关注从1个月到12个月的所有跟踪时间段时，我发现通货膨胀与价值股和成长股的相对表现之间没有统计上显着的相关性。</blockquote></p><p> Even more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.</p><p><blockquote>更令人惊讶的是，当我关注利率和价值相对于增长的表现之间的关系时，我发现了负相关。这与我们过去几个月所看到的恰恰相反，也与传统智慧告诉我们的价值股在利率上升的环境中应该如何表现的观点相反。</blockquote></p><p> My analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.</p><p><blockquote>我的分析并不表明投资者现在应该反其道而行之，在之前押注增长时押注价值，反之亦然。这一分析的要点是，一方面，通货膨胀和利率与股票市场和价值相对于增长的表现之间存在不稳定且往往微不足道的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> Short-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.</p><p><blockquote>短期股市计时器需要在其他地方寻找有关市场走向的更强有力的线索。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-inflations-spike-means-for-stocks-now-11624928059?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-inflations-spike-means-for-stocks-now-11624928059?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180006824","content_text":"Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nDon’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.\nThat’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.\nIt doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.\nTo search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&P 500 over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.\nI largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)\nOne of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.\nThis fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.\n\nAs a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.\nValue vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise\nWhat about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?\nNot so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.\nEven more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.\nMy analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.\nShort-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150583447,"gmtCreate":1624921659989,"gmtModify":1631884082173,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"S&amp;P 500-to-BTC? New ratio?","listText":"S&amp;P 500-to-BTC? New ratio?","text":"S&P 500-to-BTC? 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