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- HuannHuann
  ·2021-08-06
  Hmmm
  Calm, Deep, And Versatile Look At Microsoft Valuation
  Summary Microsoft continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating. By and large, the company's most
  Calm, Deep, And Versatile Look At Microsoft Valuation
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- HuannHuann
  ·2021-06-24
  Good
  5 Stocks To Watch For June 24, 2021
  Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:
  5 Stocks To Watch For June 24, 2021
  218 评论
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- HuannHuann
  ·2021-03-01
  When shd we enter
  Bitcoin falls 5.84% to $43,418
  Feb 28 (Reuters) - Bitcoin dropped 5.84% to $43,418.02 on Sunday, losing $2,691.96 from its previous
  Bitcoin falls 5.84% to $43,418
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- HuannHuann
  ·2021-02-23
  When will it come to an end...
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  266 评论
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- HuannHuann
  ·2021-02-12
  $Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$Anyone knows why can’t I sell the stocks?
  376 评论
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- HuannHuann
  ·2021-02-12
  $Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$Y can’t I sell the stocks?
  522 2
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- HuannHuann
  ·2021-02-09
  Nice-!
  These 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)
  I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop or AMC Entertainment Hold
  These 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)
  305 评论
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- HuannHuann
  ·2021-02-08
  Wa...
  Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us
  This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers
  Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us
  339 评论
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- HuannHuann
  ·2021-02-08
  Hmmm
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  265 评论
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,"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893391578","repostId":"1172440547","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172440547","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628233708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172440547?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 15:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Calm, Deep, And Versatile Look At Microsoft Valuation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172440547","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating.\nBy and large, the company's most","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating.</li>\n <li>By and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.</li>\n <li>Technically, the company's share price has hit the ceiling now. This means that a sideways trend is quite likely in the near future, despite the excellent quarterly results.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd13176456827fe134fc15a4ce7b3d61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Intro</b></p>\n<p>This article provides a comprehensive look at Microsoft's (MSFT)</p>\n<p><b>#1 First impression of quarterly results</b></p>\n<p>Microsoft's quarterly net income rose by 47% YoY and revenue by 21.35%, beating analysts' expectations for the tenth straight quarter. But the most surprising thing is that the company has grown in almost all directions.</p>\n<p>LinkedIn revenue grew 46% due to 97% growth in LinkedIn Marketing Solutions. Revenue from server products and cloud services increased by 34% due to the growth of Azure by 51%. Revenue from sales of Dynamics products increased by 33%, Intelligent Cloud by 30% and by 25% Productivity and Business Processes. Revenue from commercial products Office and Windows increased by 20%:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2466fb5bb0bcbc5d36c348c80b29c90d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"561\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Microsoft</span></p>\n<p>Revenue from devices of the Surface family fell by 20%. But this is probably due to a general deficiency of components.</p>\n<p>All this led to the fact that the company's revenue turned out to be higher than its long-term trend, which is a sign of<i>accelerating growth</i>:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bb7b9f7eb1cd9c05b38fba154eb5937\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p>\n<p><b>#2 Price vs. Growth</b></p>\n<p>Considering Microsoft's capitalization as a function in which revenue is the independent variable, we get a model that indicates a slightly overvalued company present price:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05c77cc215e2c37c59910671b49cebc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p>\n<p>We get the same result by considering EPS as the independent variable:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e54a36ec5fc53c984fb0db1e802bd900\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p>\n<p>However, the most qualitative model (R^2=0.98) in this case is built on the basis of Free Cash Flow. And this model indicates an almost perfect balanced state of the company's capitalization:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82c02d926d626494b75b6ee0e4d9d5d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p>\n<p>Interestingly enough, the EV/FCF multiple has responded well to Microsoft's Free Cash Flow growth rate over the past six years. And, as the following graph shows, the current growth rate of this indicator<i>perfectly justifies Microsoft's capitalization:</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e75b0d8abc1a4911b76450a76011b11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p>\n<p><i>I understand that this is a very simplified view of the company's valuation, but in this context, Microsoft's capitalization is now balanced. In other words, the market has already reflected the company's quarterly results in price.</i>Digging deeper...</p>\n<p><b>#3 Comparative Valuation</b></p>\n<p>In the context of the comparative analysis, I only trust forward multiples and, ideally, adjusted for the expected growth rate. This is because the market is always focused on the future and companies are best compared at the same point in their life cycle. One of the solutions to this problem is the use of forward multiples, which are adjusted for the expected growth rate of the basic indicator.</p>\n<p>So, this is what we get analyzing the forward P/S to growth (next FY) multiple:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37a65905afed4c1bbbd94d389a290605\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ed8dcb7352d7178668392ff949df60b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p>\n<p>And this is what we get analyzing the forward P/E (next FY) multiple:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4edfc59bd30dc9a219c894d057f94dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b407508ae95e7b072fd09517db4e3931\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p>\n<p><i>In both cases, comparing Microsoft to a broad sample of American technology companies, we get a result close to the company's current share price. Again, we draw a conclusion about the balanced state of the current price.</i></p>\n<p><b>#4 Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>When predicting Microsoft's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations of&nbsp;analysts. But, even in the historical context, I consider it adequate to expect that the average annual growth rate of the company's revenue in the next 10 years will be about 12%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad53456538717d62c367fd15d74ffd7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The operating margin of MSFT is relatively very high now:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01c0a53deb1508eec2241f6d35ec762\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>But I find it wrong to assume that Microsoft's operating margins will continue to grow in the future. First, because the dynamics of this indicator is cyclical in nature. Secondly, where there is a high margin, competition inevitably grows. Therefore, the model includes a forecast of a gradual decrease in the operating margin to a more adequate 33%.</p>\n<p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e8d89ca266026af026dcf4cc69ae9bf\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"373\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>Some notes on the WACC calculation:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equity&nbsp;risk</li>\n <li>I used the current&nbsp;value</li>\n <li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 and 2021 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Other important parameters of the model are as follows:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The relative size of CAPEX is assumed to be 10.7%, which is close to the long-term average.</li>\n <li>The tax rate is assumed to be 26%, which is close to the world&nbsp;average.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Finally, here is the model itself:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150b2e6192363e51dcf7b6db50a60d42\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p><i>The model shows Microsoft is undervalued by 8%. In fact, we once again state the balanced level of the company's capitalization.</i></p>\n<p><b>#5 Dividend Discount Model</b></p>\n<p>As a basis for Microsoft's Dividend Discount Model, I took the average expectations of&nbsp;analysts&nbsp;regarding the company's EPS in the next decade. But this is not enough to predict the net income, because it is still necessary to predict the number of shares.</p>\n<p>The number of Microsoft's diluted shares has been declining since 2012. Although the rate of decline has slowed down over the past two years:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a94c5cbb5d3e066b4b6ae92a103c7f85\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>I proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.</p>\n<p>Among the other parameters, I want to highlight the following:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>In the model, I assume that the payout ratio will remain at the average level of the last three years (35%).</li>\n <li>In the terminal year, I assume an increase in dividends of 3.5% (GDP growth of 2% and inflation of 1.5%).</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Here is the model:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84bd13ccd121cc971801cc247b1e975e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p><i>The DDM-based target price is 23% less than current levels. But, as long as the company has the potential for free cash flow growth, I think dividends are not the key motivation for investors. Therefore, in this case, this is a very strong result. For example, in the</i>&nbsp;<i>case</i>&nbsp;<i>of Apple (AAPL), things are much worse.</i></p>\n<p><b>#6 Technical picture</b></p>\n<p>Microsoft stock has been following an exponential trend over the past decade:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0378e41b0b4020eb0425bb0470747f48\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView.com, Author</span></p>\n<p>In this case, in order to highlight the usual linear channels, one should consider the graph with the logarithmic Y-axis:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/019f435ae39ceee2cb122098609d9072\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView.com, Author</span></p>\n<p>In this case, we are clearly fixing the movement in the ascending channel. Moreover, the price is now at the upper border of this channel. In fact, this means a strong zone of resistance.<i>In such cases, it is appropriate to expect a sideways trend or even a correction:</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/369d216317a2215986670a5e6a16862b\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView.com, Author</span></p>\n<p><b>Bottom line</b></p>\n<p>So, I tried to look as versatile as possible at Microsoft in the light of the latest quarterly report and summarize the following:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>The company continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating. In my opinion, this is the main condition for expecting capitalization growth.</li>\n <li>Fundamentally, the company is not undervalued. This means that, by and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.</li>\n <li>Technically, the company's share price has hit the ceiling now. This means that we need to calmly accept the fact that a sideways trend is quite likely in the near future, despite the excellent quarterly results. At the same time, the long-term upward trend remains relevant.</li>\n <li>I would also like to note the fact that given the current cost of capital, the present value of all potential Microsoft dividends assumes a fair price of the company at $220. And this is an<i>excellent result</i>, considering that the company continues to grow in quantitative terms. This is a kind of bonus that a long-term investor will receive in addition to the likely increase in the share price.</li>\n</ol>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Calm, Deep, And Versatile Look At Microsoft Valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCalm, Deep, And Versatile Look At Microsoft Valuation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-06 15:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445689-calm-deep-and-versatile-look-at-microsoft-valuation><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nMicrosoft continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating.\nBy and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.\nTechnically, the company's...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445689-calm-deep-and-versatile-look-at-microsoft-valuation\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445689-calm-deep-and-versatile-look-at-microsoft-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172440547","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating.\nBy and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.\nTechnically, the company's share price has hit the ceiling now. This means that a sideways trend is quite likely in the near future, despite the excellent quarterly results.\n\nHJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntro\nThis article provides a comprehensive look at Microsoft's (MSFT)\n#1 First impression of quarterly results\nMicrosoft's quarterly net income rose by 47% YoY and revenue by 21.35%, beating analysts' expectations for the tenth straight quarter. But the most surprising thing is that the company has grown in almost all directions.\nLinkedIn revenue grew 46% due to 97% growth in LinkedIn Marketing Solutions. Revenue from server products and cloud services increased by 34% due to the growth of Azure by 51%. Revenue from sales of Dynamics products increased by 33%, Intelligent Cloud by 30% and by 25% Productivity and Business Processes. Revenue from commercial products Office and Windows increased by 20%:\nSource: Microsoft\nRevenue from devices of the Surface family fell by 20%. But this is probably due to a general deficiency of components.\nAll this led to the fact that the company's revenue turned out to be higher than its long-term trend, which is a sign ofaccelerating growth:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\n#2 Price vs. Growth\nConsidering Microsoft's capitalization as a function in which revenue is the independent variable, we get a model that indicates a slightly overvalued company present price:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nWe get the same result by considering EPS as the independent variable:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nHowever, the most qualitative model (R^2=0.98) in this case is built on the basis of Free Cash Flow. And this model indicates an almost perfect balanced state of the company's capitalization:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nInterestingly enough, the EV/FCF multiple has responded well to Microsoft's Free Cash Flow growth rate over the past six years. And, as the following graph shows, the current growth rate of this indicatorperfectly justifies Microsoft's capitalization:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nI understand that this is a very simplified view of the company's valuation, but in this context, Microsoft's capitalization is now balanced. In other words, the market has already reflected the company's quarterly results in price.Digging deeper...\n#3 Comparative Valuation\nIn the context of the comparative analysis, I only trust forward multiples and, ideally, adjusted for the expected growth rate. This is because the market is always focused on the future and companies are best compared at the same point in their life cycle. One of the solutions to this problem is the use of forward multiples, which are adjusted for the expected growth rate of the basic indicator.\nSo, this is what we get analyzing the forward P/S to growth (next FY) multiple:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nAnd this is what we get analyzing the forward P/E (next FY) multiple:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nIn both cases, comparing Microsoft to a broad sample of American technology companies, we get a result close to the company's current share price. Again, we draw a conclusion about the balanced state of the current price.\n#4 Discounted Cash Flow Model\nWhen predicting Microsoft's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations of analysts. But, even in the historical context, I consider it adequate to expect that the average annual growth rate of the company's revenue in the next 10 years will be about 12%.\nData by YCharts\nThe operating margin of MSFT is relatively very high now:\nData by YCharts\nBut I find it wrong to assume that Microsoft's operating margins will continue to grow in the future. First, because the dynamics of this indicator is cyclical in nature. Secondly, where there is a high margin, competition inevitably grows. Therefore, the model includes a forecast of a gradual decrease in the operating margin to a more adequate 33%.\nHere is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:\nSource: Author\nSome notes on the WACC calculation:\n\nIn order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equity risk\nI used the current value\nTo calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 and 2021 divided by the debt value for the same years.\n\nOther important parameters of the model are as follows:\n\nThe relative size of CAPEX is assumed to be 10.7%, which is close to the long-term average.\nThe tax rate is assumed to be 26%, which is close to the world average.\n\nFinally, here is the model itself:\nSource: Author\nThe model shows Microsoft is undervalued by 8%. In fact, we once again state the balanced level of the company's capitalization.\n#5 Dividend Discount Model\nAs a basis for Microsoft's Dividend Discount Model, I took the average expectations of analysts regarding the company's EPS in the next decade. But this is not enough to predict the net income, because it is still necessary to predict the number of shares.\nThe number of Microsoft's diluted shares has been declining since 2012. Although the rate of decline has slowed down over the past two years:\nData by YCharts\nI proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.\nAmong the other parameters, I want to highlight the following:\n\nIn the model, I assume that the payout ratio will remain at the average level of the last three years (35%).\nIn the terminal year, I assume an increase in dividends of 3.5% (GDP growth of 2% and inflation of 1.5%).\n\nHere is the model:\nSource: Author\nThe DDM-based target price is 23% less than current levels. But, as long as the company has the potential for free cash flow growth, I think dividends are not the key motivation for investors. Therefore, in this case, this is a very strong result. For example, in the case of Apple (AAPL), things are much worse.\n#6 Technical picture\nMicrosoft stock has been following an exponential trend over the past decade:\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nIn this case, in order to highlight the usual linear channels, one should consider the graph with the logarithmic Y-axis:\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nIn this case, we are clearly fixing the movement in the ascending channel. Moreover, the price is now at the upper border of this channel. In fact, this means a strong zone of resistance.In such cases, it is appropriate to expect a sideways trend or even a correction:\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nBottom line\nSo, I tried to look as versatile as possible at Microsoft in the light of the latest quarterly report and summarize the following:\n\nThe company continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating. In my opinion, this is the main condition for expecting capitalization growth.\nFundamentally, the company is not undervalued. This means that, by and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.\nTechnically, the company's share price has hit the ceiling now. This means that we need to calmly accept the fact that a sideways trend is quite likely in the near future, despite the excellent quarterly results. At the same time, the long-term upward trend remains relevant.\nI would also like to note the fact that given the current cost of capital, the present value of all potential Microsoft dividends assumes a fair price of the company at $220. And this is anexcellent result, considering that the company continues to grow in quantitative terms. This is a kind of bonus that a long-term investor will receive in addition to the likely increase in the share price.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128428495,"gmtCreate":1624528368717,"gmtModify":1634004844874,"author":{"id":"3561975876669218","authorId":"3561975876669218","name":"Huann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3c08440569f5574b7f45ae2018c92","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561975876669218","authorIdStr":"3561975876669218"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128428495","repostId":"2145404805","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145404805","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1624524360,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2145404805?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 16:46","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For June 24, 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145404805","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:","content":"<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wall Street expects <b> Accenture Plc</b> (NYSE:ACN) to report quarterly earnings at $2.24 per share on revenue of $12.77 billion before the opening bell. Accenture shares gained 0.5% to $287.10 in after-hours trading.</li>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCS\">Steelcase Inc.</a> </b> (NASDAQ:SCS) reported a narrower-than-expected loss for its first quarter, while sales exceeded views. The company also issued strong guidance for the second quarter. Steelcase shares climbed 5.7% to $15.37 in the after-hours trading session.</li>\n <li>Analysts are expecting <b> FedEx Corporation</b> (NYSE:FDX) to have earned $4.99 per share on revenue of $21.51 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets close. FedEx shares rose 0.9% to $299.90 in after-hours trading.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KBH\">KB Home</a></b> (NYSE:KBH) reported upbeat earnings for its second quarter, while sales missed estimates. KB Home shares dropped 4.3% to $41.51 in the after-hours trading session.</li>\n <li>Analysts expect <b> Nike Inc</b> (NYSE:NKE) to report quarterly earnings at $0.51 per share on revenue of $11.01 billion after the closing bell. Nike shares gained 0.2% to $133.35 in after-hours trading.</li>\n</ul>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For June 24, 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For June 24, 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-24 16:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wall Street expects <b> Accenture Plc</b> (NYSE:ACN) to report quarterly earnings at $2.24 per share on revenue of $12.77 billion before the opening bell. Accenture shares gained 0.5% to $287.10 in after-hours trading.</li>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCS\">Steelcase Inc.</a> </b> (NASDAQ:SCS) reported a narrower-than-expected loss for its first quarter, while sales exceeded views. The company also issued strong guidance for the second quarter. Steelcase shares climbed 5.7% to $15.37 in the after-hours trading session.</li>\n <li>Analysts are expecting <b> FedEx Corporation</b> (NYSE:FDX) to have earned $4.99 per share on revenue of $21.51 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets close. FedEx shares rose 0.9% to $299.90 in after-hours trading.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KBH\">KB Home</a></b> (NYSE:KBH) reported upbeat earnings for its second quarter, while sales missed estimates. KB Home shares dropped 4.3% to $41.51 in the after-hours trading session.</li>\n <li>Analysts expect <b> Nike Inc</b> (NYSE:NKE) to report quarterly earnings at $0.51 per share on revenue of $11.01 billion after the closing bell. Nike shares gained 0.2% to $133.35 in after-hours trading.</li>\n</ul>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SCS":"Steelcase Inc.","ACN":"埃森哲","KBH":"KB Home","FDX":"联邦快递","NKE":"耐克"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145404805","content_text":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\nWall Street expects  Accenture Plc (NYSE:ACN) to report quarterly earnings at $2.24 per share on revenue of $12.77 billion before the opening bell. Accenture shares gained 0.5% to $287.10 in after-hours trading.\nSteelcase Inc.  (NASDAQ:SCS) reported a narrower-than-expected loss for its first quarter, while sales exceeded views. The company also issued strong guidance for the second quarter. Steelcase shares climbed 5.7% to $15.37 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts are expecting  FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) to have earned $4.99 per share on revenue of $21.51 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets close. FedEx shares rose 0.9% to $299.90 in after-hours trading.\n\n\nKB Home (NYSE:KBH) reported upbeat earnings for its second quarter, while sales missed estimates. KB Home shares dropped 4.3% to $41.51 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts expect  Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) to report quarterly earnings at $0.51 per share on revenue of $11.01 billion after the closing bell. Nike shares gained 0.2% to $133.35 in after-hours trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366497305,"gmtCreate":1614533141707,"gmtModify":1703478049886,"author":{"id":"3561975876669218","authorId":"3561975876669218","name":"Huann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3c08440569f5574b7f45ae2018c92","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561975876669218","authorIdStr":"3561975876669218"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"When shd we enter","listText":"When shd we enter","text":"When shd we enter","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366497305","repostId":"2116581159","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2116581159","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1614528564,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2116581159?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-01 00:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin falls 5.84% to $43,418","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2116581159","media":"Reuters","summary":"Feb 28 (Reuters) - Bitcoin dropped 5.84% to $43,418.02 on Sunday, losing $2,691.96 from its previous","content":"<html><body><p>Feb 28 (Reuters) - Bitcoin dropped 5.84% to $43,418.02 on Sunday, losing $2,691.96 from its previous close. </p><p>   Bitcoin, the world's biggest and best-known cryptocurrency, has fallen 25.6% from the year's high of $58,354.14 on Feb. 21. </p><p>   Bitcoin's price soared this year as major firms including BNY Mellon   , asset manager BlackRock Inc   , and credit card giant Mastercard Inc    backed cryptocurrencies, while others such as Tesla Inc    Square Inc    and MicroStrategy Inc    invested in bitcoin. </p><p>   Ether   , the coin linked to the ethereum blockchain network, dipped 9.59% to $1,319.12 on Sunday, losing $139.91 from its previous close.</p><p> (Reporting by Sabahatjahan Contractor in Bengaluru; Editing by Daniel Wallis)</p><p>((Sabahatjahan.Contractor@thomsonreuters.com; within U.S. +1 646 223 8780 outside the U.S.  +918067492635;))</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin falls 5.84% to $43,418</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin falls 5.84% to $43,418\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-01 00:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>Feb 28 (Reuters) - Bitcoin dropped 5.84% to $43,418.02 on Sunday, losing $2,691.96 from its previous close. </p><p>   Bitcoin, the world's biggest and best-known cryptocurrency, has fallen 25.6% from the year's high of $58,354.14 on Feb. 21. </p><p>   Bitcoin's price soared this year as major firms including BNY Mellon   , asset manager BlackRock Inc   , and credit card giant Mastercard Inc    backed cryptocurrencies, while others such as Tesla Inc    Square Inc    and MicroStrategy Inc    invested in bitcoin. </p><p>   Ether   , the coin linked to the ethereum blockchain network, dipped 9.59% to $1,319.12 on Sunday, losing $139.91 from its previous close.</p><p> (Reporting by Sabahatjahan Contractor in Bengaluru; Editing by Daniel Wallis)</p><p>((Sabahatjahan.Contractor@thomsonreuters.com; within U.S. +1 646 223 8780 outside the U.S.  +918067492635;))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MA":"万事达","MSTR":"Strategy","SANA":"Sana Biotechnology, Inc.","TSLA":"特斯拉","LABP":"Landos Biopharma, Inc.","CGEM":"Cullinan Therapeutics","BK":"纽约梅隆银行","LHDX":"Lucira Health, Inc.","BLK":"贝莱德"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2116581159","content_text":"Feb 28 (Reuters) - Bitcoin dropped 5.84% to $43,418.02 on Sunday, losing $2,691.96 from its previous close.    Bitcoin, the world's biggest and best-known cryptocurrency, has fallen 25.6% from the year's high of $58,354.14 on Feb. 21.    Bitcoin's price soared this year as major firms including BNY Mellon   , asset manager BlackRock Inc   , and credit card giant Mastercard Inc    backed cryptocurrencies, while others such as Tesla Inc    Square Inc    and MicroStrategy Inc    invested in bitcoin.    Ether   , the coin linked to the ethereum blockchain network, dipped 9.59% to $1,319.12 on Sunday, losing $139.91 from its previous close. (Reporting by Sabahatjahan Contractor in Bengaluru; Editing by Daniel Wallis)((Sabahatjahan.Contractor@thomsonreuters.com; within U.S. +1 646 223 8780 outside the U.S.  +918067492635;))","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363032868,"gmtCreate":1614081636454,"gmtModify":1634551258485,"author":{"id":"3561975876669218","authorId":"3561975876669218","name":"Huann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3c08440569f5574b7f45ae2018c92","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561975876669218","authorIdStr":"3561975876669218"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"When will it come to an end...","listText":"When will it come to an end...","text":"When will it come to an end...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363032868","repostId":"2113273333","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386926193,"gmtCreate":1613128619012,"gmtModify":1634554419565,"author":{"id":"3561975876669218","authorId":"3561975876669218","name":"Huann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3c08440569f5574b7f45ae2018c92","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561975876669218","authorIdStr":"3561975876669218"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>Anyone knows why can’t I sell the stocks?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>Anyone knows why can’t I sell the stocks?","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$Anyone knows why can’t I sell the stocks?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386926193","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386967404,"gmtCreate":1613128137108,"gmtModify":1634554423705,"author":{"id":"3561975876669218","authorId":"3561975876669218","name":"Huann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3c08440569f5574b7f45ae2018c92","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561975876669218","authorIdStr":"3561975876669218"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>Y can’t I sell the stocks?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>Y can’t I sell the stocks?","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$Y can’t I sell the stocks?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386967404","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3572738254108618","authorId":"3572738254108618","name":"FakeMan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572738254108618","authorIdStr":"3572738254108618"},"content":"cannot sell? how could this happen?","text":"cannot sell? how could this happen?","html":"cannot sell? how could this happen?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383496553,"gmtCreate":1612886254472,"gmtModify":1703766492003,"author":{"id":"3561975876669218","authorId":"3561975876669218","name":"Huann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3c08440569f5574b7f45ae2018c92","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561975876669218","authorIdStr":"3561975876669218"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice-!","listText":"Nice-!","text":"Nice-!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383496553","repostId":"1149038980","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149038980","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612864337,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149038980?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-09 17:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149038980","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop or AMC Entertainment Hold","content":"<p>I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop&nbsp;or AMC Entertainment Holdings&nbsp;for a few hours or days, only to watch their gains evaporate.</p>\n<p>This coordinated bull raid was initiated by thousands of retail investors on Reddit, a popular website forum. We heard stories of fortunes made and lost. The ones we didn’t hear were from the folks in-between — small retail traders and investors who suffered thousands of dollars (or more) in losses.</p>\n<p>For those still holding GME or AMC, or for those eager to pounce on the next volatile meme stock, I offer the following advice based on personal experience and observations. These are the lessons you must know before you ever get involved in the stock or options market (or if you are holding a winning stock or option):</p>\n<p><b>1. Don’t sell stocks or options on products you don’t own:</b>The traders who lost the most money in GameStop and AMC were those who sold “naked” calls and puts (i.e. they sold options on stocks they didn’t own), or those who sold shares short (again, they sold shares on a stock they didn’t own). When using this extremely risky strategy, you can make a fortune if you’re right. If you’re wrong, the losses can be incalculable. In reality, some unwary traders lost tens of thousands of dollars last week on positions that cost a few thousand dollars. Once again, don’t sell anything naked unless you’re a professional, and in this case even the pros lost big on that risky bet.</p>\n<p><b>2. Sell at the “zero point.”</b>&nbsp; Here’s a rule I created: If you have huge gains that disappear and you are at the zero point (i.e. break-even), sell before you have real losses. It’s better to walk away at zero than with losses.</p>\n<p><b>3. Don’t be a stubborn seller:</b>Why is it so hard for most traders to walk away at the zero point? Stubbornness. Many traders made huge gains last week only to watch those profits disappear. They refused to sell because they hoped to make their money back. If holding options, that’s not going to happen. (If you bought at or near the high, your money is gone. If you hold a stock, plan to wait months or even years to recover. Stubborn stockholders often end up as “stuckholders.”</p>\n<p><b>4. Take the money and run:</b>When you are holding a stock or option position that brings outsized profits, either sell half of your holding or all of it — but get out. I call this “selling at extremes.” Sell something when the profits are beyond your wildest expectations. We all know the story of the gambler who wins big at the casino, but doesn’t leave the table until all his money is gone. Know when to walk away from the computer. Profits are fleeting, especially when volatility skyrockets.</p>\n<p><b>5.Trade small when making longshot trades (i.e. gambling):</b>GameStop and AMC were both big gambles, and for a time the trade worked if you were long. But if you bet wrong? I spoke to a few of these traders. One lost $8,000 on a single option contract. If he had traded his normal size (30 contracts), he told me, his losses would have been more than $240,000.</p>\n<p><b>6. Don’t expect this trading frenzy to keep happening:</b>It’s possible that a group of traders on the Reddit forum will band together for more bear- or bull raids. Except Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are most likely creating new rules to prevent this from repeating. The Fed hates volatility and will do everything in its power to keep the markets calm. So once again, when you make big money on a trade, take the money as fast as you can — because you may not get the chance again.</p>\n<p><b>7. Stop bragging about how much money you made</b>: Many traders who won big immediately bragged on social media (and to their jealous friends) about how much money they made on this trade. Yet the euphoric feeling they had was temporary. It usually goes away after all the money is gone. The smart (and polite) traders took their gains and kept the win to themselves</p>\n<p><b>8. Use a time stop:</b>Time stops are not well-known or popular, but with fast-moving stocks (or when trading options), they are invaluable. In an extremely fast market, the traditional stop-limit order won’t get filled, as many of those meme-stock traders found out the hard way. Instead, after making a huge profit, set a day or time to sell. For example, you may sell the position by Friday no matter what (although selling at extremes is better — see Rule #4).</p>\n<p><b>9. Sell half or all of the position:</b>It’s never an easy decision to know when to sell. If you sell too early, it’s annoying to watch the stock go higher. Sell too late and you lose money. Selling half of your holding is a reasonable alternative, but you must be prepared to sell the other half if the position goes against you.</p>\n<p><b>10. Don’t seek revenge when you lose money on a stock:</b>It’s common for traders to seek revenge on a stock they lost money on. Do not fall for this emotional trap. If you lost money on a stock, let it go and move on.</p>\n<p><b>11. Trade small after you made or lost big:</b>If you’re feeling emotional about a stock, including feelings of anger or revenge, trade small. Many people who hit it big in the market can’t help but make bigger and bigger bets. Just like the gamblers at a casino, they keep trading until all their money is gone.</p>\n<p>You don’t think it can happen to you? One of the greatest speculators in the world, Jesse Livermore, made $100 million dollars in a single week in 1929. He then lost all of his money within five years. He should have moved most of his profits out of the market after his big win and traded small for the next year. Instead, he got reckless and lost it all.</p>\n<p><b>12. Don’t take on too much risk:</b>Never invest or trade with so much money that if you lost, you’d lose your house or 401(k). Brokers told me about clients who cleared out their retirement funds or took cash advances on their credit cards so they could buy GameStop and AMC. Some won, some lost, but many took on way too much risk.</p>\n<p><b>The meme-stock pyramid scheme</b></p>\n<p>Those who traded GameStop, AMC and other meme stocks thought they were trading, but they were actually participating in a gigantic pyramid scheme. Those who got in early and got out early probably did well. Those who entered late or held too long lost money.</p>\n<p>My advice: Review these 12 rules periodically. They are based on the experiences and the bad luck of thousands of other traders, including myself, who thought we were smarter than the market. In truth the market was smarter than us — because it always is.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-09 17:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-12-lessons-from-the-gamestop-and-amc-frenzy-can-help-you-make-money-trading-stocks-or-at-least-lose-less-11612771522?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop or AMC Entertainment Holdings for a few hours or days, only to watch their gains evaporate.\nThis coordinated bull raid was ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-12-lessons-from-the-gamestop-and-amc-frenzy-can-help-you-make-money-trading-stocks-or-at-least-lose-less-11612771522?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线",".DJI":"道琼斯","GME":"游戏驿站",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-12-lessons-from-the-gamestop-and-amc-frenzy-can-help-you-make-money-trading-stocks-or-at-least-lose-less-11612771522?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1149038980","content_text":"I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop or AMC Entertainment Holdings for a few hours or days, only to watch their gains evaporate.\nThis coordinated bull raid was initiated by thousands of retail investors on Reddit, a popular website forum. We heard stories of fortunes made and lost. The ones we didn’t hear were from the folks in-between — small retail traders and investors who suffered thousands of dollars (or more) in losses.\nFor those still holding GME or AMC, or for those eager to pounce on the next volatile meme stock, I offer the following advice based on personal experience and observations. These are the lessons you must know before you ever get involved in the stock or options market (or if you are holding a winning stock or option):\n1. Don’t sell stocks or options on products you don’t own:The traders who lost the most money in GameStop and AMC were those who sold “naked” calls and puts (i.e. they sold options on stocks they didn’t own), or those who sold shares short (again, they sold shares on a stock they didn’t own). When using this extremely risky strategy, you can make a fortune if you’re right. If you’re wrong, the losses can be incalculable. In reality, some unwary traders lost tens of thousands of dollars last week on positions that cost a few thousand dollars. Once again, don’t sell anything naked unless you’re a professional, and in this case even the pros lost big on that risky bet.\n2. Sell at the “zero point.”  Here’s a rule I created: If you have huge gains that disappear and you are at the zero point (i.e. break-even), sell before you have real losses. It’s better to walk away at zero than with losses.\n3. Don’t be a stubborn seller:Why is it so hard for most traders to walk away at the zero point? Stubbornness. Many traders made huge gains last week only to watch those profits disappear. They refused to sell because they hoped to make their money back. If holding options, that’s not going to happen. (If you bought at or near the high, your money is gone. If you hold a stock, plan to wait months or even years to recover. Stubborn stockholders often end up as “stuckholders.”\n4. Take the money and run:When you are holding a stock or option position that brings outsized profits, either sell half of your holding or all of it — but get out. I call this “selling at extremes.” Sell something when the profits are beyond your wildest expectations. We all know the story of the gambler who wins big at the casino, but doesn’t leave the table until all his money is gone. Know when to walk away from the computer. Profits are fleeting, especially when volatility skyrockets.\n5.Trade small when making longshot trades (i.e. gambling):GameStop and AMC were both big gambles, and for a time the trade worked if you were long. But if you bet wrong? I spoke to a few of these traders. One lost $8,000 on a single option contract. If he had traded his normal size (30 contracts), he told me, his losses would have been more than $240,000.\n6. Don’t expect this trading frenzy to keep happening:It’s possible that a group of traders on the Reddit forum will band together for more bear- or bull raids. Except Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are most likely creating new rules to prevent this from repeating. The Fed hates volatility and will do everything in its power to keep the markets calm. So once again, when you make big money on a trade, take the money as fast as you can — because you may not get the chance again.\n7. Stop bragging about how much money you made: Many traders who won big immediately bragged on social media (and to their jealous friends) about how much money they made on this trade. Yet the euphoric feeling they had was temporary. It usually goes away after all the money is gone. The smart (and polite) traders took their gains and kept the win to themselves\n8. Use a time stop:Time stops are not well-known or popular, but with fast-moving stocks (or when trading options), they are invaluable. In an extremely fast market, the traditional stop-limit order won’t get filled, as many of those meme-stock traders found out the hard way. Instead, after making a huge profit, set a day or time to sell. For example, you may sell the position by Friday no matter what (although selling at extremes is better — see Rule #4).\n9. Sell half or all of the position:It’s never an easy decision to know when to sell. If you sell too early, it’s annoying to watch the stock go higher. Sell too late and you lose money. Selling half of your holding is a reasonable alternative, but you must be prepared to sell the other half if the position goes against you.\n10. Don’t seek revenge when you lose money on a stock:It’s common for traders to seek revenge on a stock they lost money on. Do not fall for this emotional trap. If you lost money on a stock, let it go and move on.\n11. Trade small after you made or lost big:If you’re feeling emotional about a stock, including feelings of anger or revenge, trade small. Many people who hit it big in the market can’t help but make bigger and bigger bets. Just like the gamblers at a casino, they keep trading until all their money is gone.\nYou don’t think it can happen to you? One of the greatest speculators in the world, Jesse Livermore, made $100 million dollars in a single week in 1929. He then lost all of his money within five years. He should have moved most of his profits out of the market after his big win and traded small for the next year. Instead, he got reckless and lost it all.\n12. Don’t take on too much risk:Never invest or trade with so much money that if you lost, you’d lose your house or 401(k). Brokers told me about clients who cleared out their retirement funds or took cash advances on their credit cards so they could buy GameStop and AMC. Some won, some lost, but many took on way too much risk.\nThe meme-stock pyramid scheme\nThose who traded GameStop, AMC and other meme stocks thought they were trading, but they were actually participating in a gigantic pyramid scheme. Those who got in early and got out early probably did well. Those who entered late or held too long lost money.\nMy advice: Review these 12 rules periodically. They are based on the experiences and the bad luck of thousands of other traders, including myself, who thought we were smarter than the market. In truth the market was smarter than us — because it always is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389580732,"gmtCreate":1612787773626,"gmtModify":1703764996860,"author":{"id":"3561975876669218","authorId":"3561975876669218","name":"Huann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3c08440569f5574b7f45ae2018c92","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561975876669218","authorIdStr":"3561975876669218"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wa...","listText":"Wa...","text":"Wa...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389580732","repostId":"1195153829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195153829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612781502,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195153829?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195153829","media":"Barrons","summary":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers","content":"<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p>\n<p>What GameStop Taught Us</p>\n<p><i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p>\n<p><i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p>\n<p>marketfield.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p>\n<p>What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p>\n<p>That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p>\n<p>—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p>\n<p>Heigh-Ho Silver!</p>\n<p><i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p>\n<p><i>The Aden Forecast</i></p>\n<p>adenforecast.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p>\n<p>—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p>\n<p>How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p>\n<p><i>Daily Insights</i></p>\n<p><i>BCA Research</i></p>\n<p><i>bcaresearch.com</i></p>\n<p>Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p>\n<p>A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p>\n<p>A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p>\n<p>—Mathieu Savary and Team</p>\n<p>High-Yield Opportunities</p>\n<p><i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p>\n<p><i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p>\n<p>carret.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p>\n<p>We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p>\n<p>—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p>\n<p>Emerging Markets Blast Off</p>\n<p><i>PCM Report</i></p>\n<p><i>Peak Capital Management</i></p>\n<p>pcmstrategies.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p>\n<p>What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p>\n<p>In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p>\n<p>—Clint Pekrul</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title> Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-08 18:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GME":"游戏驿站",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195153829","content_text":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset Management\nmarketfield.com\nFeb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.\nWhat is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.\nThat it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.\n—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett\nHeigh-Ho Silver!\nThe Aden Forecast Weekly Update\nThe Aden Forecast\nadenforecast.com\nFeb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.\n—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden\nHow to Play Oil’s Recent Rally\nDaily Insights\nBCA Research\nbcaresearch.com\nFeb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.\nA great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.\nA lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.\n—Mathieu Savary and Team\nHigh-Yield Opportunities\nCarret Credit Insight\nCarret Asset Mangaement\ncarret.com\nFeb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.\nWe want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.\n—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein\nEmerging Markets Blast Off\nPCM Report\nPeak Capital Management\npcmstrategies.com\nFeb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.\nWhat could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.\nIn its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.\n—Clint Pekrul","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389507015,"gmtCreate":1612784648837,"gmtModify":1703764952446,"author":{"id":"3561975876669218","authorId":"3561975876669218","name":"Huann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3c08440569f5574b7f45ae2018c92","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561975876669218","authorIdStr":"3561975876669218"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389507015","repostId":"1146599524","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}