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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-09-09
RIP
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-09-07
$Apple(AAPL)$
Holding on. All the way AAPL!
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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-09-07
Thanks for circulating this great article here :)
Alibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：短线交易策略</blockquote>
SummaryOver the last 5 days, the market has reached a consensus of sorts on Alibaba's valuation; its
Alibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：短线交易策略</blockquote>
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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-08-26
Stock split means more retail investors can have a stake in the company and not the company is issuing more shares.
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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-08-23
Tesla still the EV market leader!
TSLA Stock Falls as Tesla Hikes FSD Prices<blockquote>特斯拉提高FSD价格，特斯拉股价下跌</blockquote>
Elon Musk has announced that Tesla(TSLA) is preparing for an important price hike.The company's full
TSLA Stock Falls as Tesla Hikes FSD Prices<blockquote>特斯拉提高FSD价格，特斯拉股价下跌</blockquote>
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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-08-23
Thanks very much for this detail write out!
SPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal<blockquote>SPDR标普500指数ETF：是时候退出了，卖空量疲软预示着逆转</blockquote>
SummaryThe base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging t
SPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal<blockquote>SPDR标普500指数ETF：是时候退出了，卖空量疲软预示着逆转</blockquote>
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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-08-03
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
Something to rejoice about in this turbulent market condition =)
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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-08-03
Thanks for sharing. Hopefully the author is wrong about Tesla.
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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-07-29
I am so glad !!
Apple CFO Says Supply Chain Issues In June Quarter Cost Under $4B In Sales<blockquote>苹果首席财务官表示，6月份季度的供应链问题导致销售额低于40亿美元</blockquote>
-Reuters
Apple CFO Says Supply Chain Issues In June Quarter Cost Under $4B In Sales<blockquote>苹果首席财务官表示，6月份季度的供应链问题导致销售额低于40亿美元</blockquote>
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Alan_Goh
Alan_Goh
·
2022-07-29
So happy to hear the passing of the bill for the future of America :)
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Holding on. All the way AAPL!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Holding on. All the way AAPL!","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$Holding on. All the way AAPL!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1f50f792f15fce0a591668de3d9691e","width":"2360","height":"1312"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669594721","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":669594473,"gmtCreate":1662511729392,"gmtModify":1662511736108,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570187411453325","authorIdStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for circulating this great article here :)","listText":"Thanks for circulating this great article here :)","text":"Thanks for circulating this great article here :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669594473","repostId":"1199050881","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199050881","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662478265,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199050881?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-06 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：短线交易策略</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199050881","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryOver the last 5 days, the market has reached a consensus of sorts on Alibaba's valuation; its","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Over the last 5 days, the market has reached a consensus of sorts on Alibaba's valuation; its value is somewhere between $90.78 and $100.88/share.</li><li>Alibaba has repeatedly traded at high volumes near both value extremes in the last 5 days, sometimes on the same day.</li><li>Alibaba's volatility makes it a great stock for short-term day or swing trading.</li><li>Money in losing positions is often called "dead money". However short-term trading around a losing position can, if executed successfully, lower a position's cost basis and generate return.</li></ul><b>The Young Bull and the Older, Wiser Bull</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去5天，市场对阿里巴巴-SW的估值达成了某种共识；其价值在每股90.78美元至100.88美元之间。</li><li>在过去5天里，阿里巴巴-SW多次在两个价值极值附近进行高交易量交易，有时是在同一天。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW的波动性使其成为短期日内或波段交易的绝佳股票。</li><li>亏损头寸中的钱通常被称为“死钱”。然而，围绕亏损头寸的短期交易如果执行成功，可以降低头寸的成本基础并产生回报。</li></ul><b>年轻的公牛和年长的、更聪明的公牛</b></blockquote></p><p>Recently, I observed an old bull and a young bull grazing in a green pasture on a beautiful, sunny day. The young bull gazed towards a nearby watering hole and noticed a herd of cows had gathered there. The youngster said, "I'm going to run over and buy one of those cows a drink". The older, wiser bull replied, "I'm going to walk over and buy them all a drink".</p><p><blockquote>最近，在一个阳光明媚的日子里，我观察到一头老公牛和一头小公牛在绿色的牧场上吃草。小公牛凝视着附近的一个水坑，注意到一群奶牛聚集在那里。年轻人说，“我要跑过去给那些奶牛买一杯饮料”。年长、聪明的公牛回答说：“我要走过去请他们喝一杯”。</blockquote></p><p><b>Alibaba: A Proverbial Herd of Cows</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW：众所周知的一群牛</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the last year, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) has traded between a high of $182.09 and a low of $73.28. BABA has generally trended down with exceptional volatility and closed on September 2nd at $91.80.</p><p><blockquote>去年，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）的交易价格在182.09美元的高点和73.28美元的低点之间。阿里巴巴总体呈下跌趋势，波动性极高，9月2日收于91.80美元。</blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: 1-Year Price Range</i></p><p><blockquote><i>阿里巴巴：1年价格范围</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca7be63615cd2146c68f392a0cef02e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p>Many portfolios, no doubt, include "dead money" in losing BABA positions with negative unrealized and realized gains. However, each time a share changed hands at every price level, there was a winner and a loser on the trade. Clever or lucky investors sold at a short-term peak to a willing buyer; the opposite case is also true. Over most time ranges, it may be possible to get on the winning side of most trades and generate return even on dead money.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，许多投资组合都包含失去阿里巴巴头寸的“死钱”，未实现和已实现收益均为负。然而，每次股票在每个价格水平易手时，交易中都会有赢家和输家。聪明或幸运的投资者在短期峰值向有意愿的买家出售；反之亦然。在大多数时间范围内，有可能在大多数交易中获胜，甚至在死钱上也能产生回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Short-Term Trading Strategy: Maintain Share Count</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短线交易策略：维持股数</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the last five days, BABA's price range has been $90.78 to $100.88/share. Over the same 5 days, BABA has traded at several shorter-term highs and lows. Based on the recent past and the last year, one could reasonably expect BABA to continue bouncing in a similar way. With the goal of maintaining share count while realizing short-term gains, I recommend a short-term buying and selling strategy based on a relatively simple analysis.</p><p><blockquote>过去五天，阿里巴巴的价格区间为每股90.78美元至100.88美元。在同一5天内，阿里巴巴的交易价格出现了几个短期高点和低点。根据最近和去年的情况，人们可以合理地预计阿里巴巴将继续以类似的方式反弹。以在实现短期收益的同时保持股票数量为目标，我推荐基于相对简单分析的短期买卖策略。</blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy & Sell Ranges - Maintain Share Count</i></p><p><blockquote><i>阿里巴巴：5天价格及买卖范围-维持股票数量</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0037de1ff3e4a30d8de1609790a0ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p>BABA's 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. The green and red shaded areas represent short-term buy and sell zones by the author. The sell and buy ranges begin at 0.75% above and below the median price respectively. The 0.75% spread on each side of the median price range is somewhat arbitrary. It could be narrower or broader depending on several factors including one's risk tolerance, how closely one will follow BABA intraday, and one's planned trading frequency & volume. Based on my analysis of recent trading, I recommend buying BABA beginning at $95.11 and selling beginning at $96.55 in order to realize short-term gains while maintaining share count.</p><p><blockquote>BABA的5天价格范围由蓝色实线表示，蓝色虚线绘制的中值价格为95.83美元。绿色和红色阴影区域代表作者的短期买入和卖出区域。卖出和买入区间分别从中位价格上方和下方0.75%开始。中位价格范围两侧0.75%的价差有些武断。它可能更窄或更宽，具体取决于几个因素，包括一个人的风险承受能力、盘中关注阿里巴巴的密切程度以及一个人计划的交易频率和交易量。根据我对近期交易的分析，我建议从95.11美元开始买入阿里巴巴，从96.55美元开始卖出，以便在保持股数的同时实现短期收益。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Buy & Sell BABA While Maintaining Share Count</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>在维持股票数量的同时买卖阿里巴巴</i></b></blockquote></p><p>This chart was generated with a downloadable Excel spreadsheet by the author.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表是作者用可下载的Excel电子表格生成的。</blockquote></p><p><i>Maintain Share Count</i></p><p><blockquote><i>维护共享计数</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033f311932792e534be4a59481a36ad3\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"734\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Author</p><p><blockquote>作者</blockquote></p><p>Adjustable inputs are in the shaded cells. Buy and sell limit orders are tabulated with a goal of maintaining share count; buy & sell count and spread are equal. I recommend investors who are comfortable with short-term trading place descending buy and ascending sell limit orders on both sides of the short-term median price. Less aggressive investors can place a single limit order or a single buy and sell pair.</p><p><blockquote>可调输入位于阴影单元格中。买卖限价单以维持股数为目标制表；买卖计数和价差相等。我推荐那些对短期交易感到满意的投资者在短期中间价两侧下行买入和上行卖出限价单。不太激进的投资者可以下单个限价单或单个买卖对。</blockquote></p><p>However, based on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, some investors may wish to accumulate BABA.</p><p><blockquote>然而，基于对阿里巴巴估值和势头的简要回顾，一些投资者可能希望积累阿里巴巴。</blockquote></p><p><b>BABA: A Brief Review of Valuation and Momentum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴：估值和势头简要回顾</b></blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: Historical EV/EBITDA Ratio</i></p><p><blockquote><i>阿里巴巴：历史EV/EBITDA比率</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65d572de993b59310b63a1e15952975e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p></p><p>BABA EV/EBITDA is plotted over 3 years and is currently near its lowest point over that time range. The ratio reached a peak in late 2020 (arguably based on positive sentiment and hopeful analysis) and has since fallen on delisting concerns and negative sentiment. I expect delisting concerns to be resolved and sentiment to improve. Based on BABA's current EV/EBITDA ratio, now is a good time to accumulate shares.</p><p><blockquote>BABA EV/EBITDA绘制了3年的图表，目前接近该时间范围内的最低点。该比率在2020年底达到峰值（可以说是基于积极情绪和充满希望的分析），此后因退市担忧和负面情绪而下降。我预计退市担忧将得到解决，市场情绪将有所改善。根据阿里巴巴目前的EV/EBITDA比率，现在是积累股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: Momentum</i></p><p><blockquote><i>爸爸：动量</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08c5bd8470c70c6d1153b9f3e6fec200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p>BABA share price is currently below its 200, 100, 50, and even 10-day simple moving averages. A simple momentum strategy is based on reversion to mean; over most time ranges, share price will oscillate around its mean value. If BABA oscillates towards any of its moving averages, share price will increase.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴股价目前低于200日、100日、50日甚至10日简单移动平均线。一个简单的动量策略是基于均值回归；在大多数时间范围内，股价将围绕其平均值振荡。如果阿里巴巴向任何移动平均线振荡，股价就会上涨。</blockquote></p><p><b>Short-Term Trading Strategy: Accumulate Shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短线交易策略：积累股份</b></blockquote></p><p>Based on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, I recommend investors accumulate BABA. The following graph is nearly identical to the graph discussed above; a single parameter has been adjusted.</p><p><blockquote>基于对阿里巴巴估值和势头的简要回顾，我建议投资者积累阿里巴巴。下图与上面讨论的图几乎相同；调整了一个参数。</blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy & Sell Ranges: Accumulate Shares</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BABA：5天价格及买卖范围：累积股票</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0134a770b2e34c173529887827a35fcc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p>Again, BABA's 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. However, the green and red shaded areas representing short-term buy and sell zones are asymmetric with relation to the median price. The sell range begins at 0.75% above the median price while the buy range begins 0.5% below the median price. Short-term trading with these ranges would be more likely to result in accumulation of shares than the "<i>Maintain Share Count"</i>strategy discussed previously.</p><p><blockquote>同样，BABA的5天价格范围由蓝色实线表示，蓝色虚线绘制的中值价格为95.83美元。然而，代表短期买入和卖出区域的绿色和红色阴影区域相对于中值价格是不对称的。卖出区间从中位价格上方0.75%开始，而买入区间从中位价格下方0.5%开始。在这些范围内的短期交易比“<i>维护共享计数”</i>之前讨论过的策略。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Buy & Sell BABA While Accumulating Shares</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>在积累股票的同时买卖阿里巴巴</i></b></blockquote></p><p>This chart is very similar to that discussed with relation to the "<i>Maintain Share Count"</i> strategy and was generated with the same downloadable Excel spreadsheet.</p><p><blockquote>该图表与有关“<i>维护共享计数”</i>策略，并使用相同的可下载Excel电子表格生成。</blockquote></p><p><i>Accumulate Shares</i></p><p><blockquote><i>累积股份</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96237d2d24d5b86f0fd446b9f1ee7ac2\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Author</p><p><blockquote>作者</blockquote></p><p>The only difference is the buy spread has been reduced to 0.50% from 0.75%. The recommended sell orders are identical while the recommended buy orders are slightly more aggressive. In essence, the recommended sell and buy orders would be more likely to result in accumulating shares than those listed in "<i>Buy & Sell BABA While Maintaining Share Count"</i>chart.</p><p><blockquote>唯一的区别是买入价差从0.75%降至0.50%。推荐的卖出订单是相同的，而推荐的买入订单稍微激进一些。本质上，建议的卖出和买入订单比“<i>在维持股票数量的同时买卖阿里巴巴”</i>图表。</blockquote></p><p><b>Short-Term Trading and Wash Sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短线交易洗盘</b></blockquote></p><p>Any buyer or seller of any security including BABA should be aware of IRSrules on wash sales and seek the advice of a licensed accountant or other licensed professional as necessary. A good Seeking Alpha article on wash sale rules is also available. Generally, IRS wash rules apply to the sale and purchase of an identical stock within a 30-day period and are most often applied to tax loss sales.</p><p><blockquote>包括阿里巴巴在内的任何证券的任何买家或卖家都应了解IRS关于wash销售的规则，并在必要时寻求注册会计师或其他注册专业人士的建议。还提供了一篇关于洗售规则的好的Seeking Alpha文章。一般来说，IRS wash规则适用于30天内同一股票的买卖，最常适用于税收损失销售。</blockquote></p><p>Another scenario can be beneficial to investors. If a losing position or fraction thereof is sold and then repurchased at a lesser cost, a wash sale occurs. Most brokerages will adjust the cost basis of the position. It is easiest to discuss with an example and I happen to hold a losing BABA position.</p><p><blockquote>另一种情况可能对投资者有利。如果卖出亏损头寸或其一部分，然后以较低的成本回购，则发生洗盘。多数券商会调整持仓的成本基础。用一个例子来讨论是最容易的，我碰巧持有一个亏损的BABA头寸。</blockquote></p><p>My BABA cost basis is approximately $115. I swing trade losing positions aggressively and have shared my strategy in comments on BABA articles on two occasions. On August 26th, I sold my entire position in 10 blocks with ascending limit orders starting at $98.5 with intervals of $0.5 (98.5, 99, 99.5, …$103) for an average sale price of $100.75. I placed descending limit orders later in the day to buy the same blocks starting at $98 and descending by $0.5. Two of those limit orders closed that day at $98 and $97.5 and subsequently, I was able to refill the remainder of my position with a total average price of $95.75. Notably, I realized neither the highest possible sale price nor the lowest possible purchase price over the period but still gained $5.00 per share. My cost basis was lowered from about $115 to about $110/share.</p><p><blockquote>我的阿里巴巴成本基础约为115美元。我积极波动交易亏损头寸，并曾两次在阿里巴巴文章的评论中分享我的策略。8月26日，我用上涨限价单卖出了10个区块的全部头寸，起价为98.5美元，间隔为0.5美元（98.5，99，99.5，…103美元），平均售价为100.75美元。当天晚些时候，我下了下跌限价单，以98美元开始买入相同的区块，下跌0.5美元。其中两个限价单当天以98美元和97.5美元收盘，随后，我能够以95.75美元的总平均价格重新填充剩余头寸。值得注意的是，在此期间，我既没有意识到最高可能的出售价格，也没有意识到最低可能的购买价格，但每股仍上涨了5.00美元。我的成本基础从每股115美元左右降至110美元左右。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risks: Plan to Win but Be Prepared to Fail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险：计划获胜，但做好失败的准备</b></blockquote></p><p>A thorough fundamental analysis of BABA or discussion of news is beyond the scope of this discussion; there is no shortage of analysis and news elsewhere. If one is going to buy or sell any stock, including short-term, evaluation should be carefully considered.</p><p><blockquote>对阿里巴巴的彻底基本面分析或新闻讨论超出了本次讨论的范围；其他地方也不乏分析和新闻。如果一个人要买卖任何股票，包括短期股票，评估应该仔细考虑。</blockquote></p><p>Further, the recommended buying and selling ranges may not be advantageous over any period if BABA makes a big move in either direction. I recommend traders generate a similar buy/sell plot either with Seeking Alpha's advanced charting tool or by printing and annotating a chart by hand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如果阿里巴巴向任一方向大幅波动，建议的买入和卖出范围在任何时期都可能不是有利的。我建议交易者使用Seeking Alpha的高级图表工具或手动打印和注释图表来生成类似的买入/卖出图。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Short-term trading can go wrong in at least two ways. An investor can sell a fraction of a position or an entire position at the beginning of a sustained rally. That investor might not have an opportunity to repurchase those shares at a lesser price if the stock continues to rally. Conversely, one can purchase an unlimited quantity of shares on a dip and never be able to sell those shares for a gain.</p><p><blockquote>短期交易至少会在两个方面出错。投资者可以在持续反弹开始时卖出一小部分头寸或全部头寸。如果股价继续上涨，该投资者可能没有机会以较低的价格回购这些股票。相反，人们可以在下跌时购买无限数量的股票，但永远无法出售这些股票以获取收益。</blockquote></p><p>An individual investor can manage these risks several ways. Complimentary but opposite limit orders can be placed as transactions close. Some brokerages have special order types whereby a secondary order is placed after a primary order executes. Further, an investor can limit how much of a position is sold or stop buying a dip once a position limit is reached. Both selling and accumulation can be limited by adjusting the frequency, size, and spread of the trades.</p><p><blockquote>个人投资者可以通过多种方式管理这些风险。交易结束时，可以下免费但相反的限价单。一些经纪公司有特殊的订单类型，在主订单执行后下二级订单。此外，投资者可以限制卖出头寸的数量，或者一旦达到头寸限制就停止逢低买入。通过调整交易的频率、规模和价差，可以限制卖出和积累。</blockquote></p><p>An aggressive investor can sell up to 100% of any position at any moment or accumulate limited only by available funds. I recommend blocks no bigger than 10% of target position size with accumulation up to 1.5x target position and selling down to 50% of the same target. In many cases where a stock is volatile, placing ascending and/or descending limit orders can be a successful strategy. More conservative investors can buy and sell in blocks of 5% or less while limiting accumulation to 120% of a target position and selling down to 80% of the same target.</p><p><blockquote>激进的投资者可以在任何时候出售高达100%的任何头寸，或者仅受可用资金限制地积累。我建议持有不超过目标头寸规模10%的区块，累计最高可达目标头寸的1.5倍，并卖出至同一目标的50%。在股票波动较大的许多情况下，下上涨和/或下跌限价单可能是一种成功的策略。更保守的投资者可以按5%或更少的比例进行买卖，同时将积累限制在目标头寸的120%，并将出售限制在同一目标的80%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Investor Takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p>Based on current valuation and momentum, I would not recommend decreasing a BABA position at this time. BABA positions are not dead money; I advise most investors trade BABA short-term with the goal of generating return while accumulating shares. I recommend most investors buy BABA below $95.35 and sell above $96.55 if trading remains in a range similar to the last five days. Notably, Baba closed at $91.80 on Friday and may open below $95.35 on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>根据目前的估值和势头，我不建议此时减少阿里巴巴的头寸。阿里巴巴头寸不是死钱；我建议大多数投资者短期交易阿里巴巴，目标是在积累股票的同时产生回报。如果交易保持在与过去五天类似的范围内，我建议大多数投资者在95.35美元以下买入阿里巴巴，并在96.55美元以上卖出。值得注意的是，阿里巴巴周五收于91.80美元，周二开盘价可能低于95.35美元。</blockquote></p><p>I recommend investors do their own scribbling over a price chart digitally or otherwise and then tabulate limit orders. The downloadable Excel spreadsheet will generate buy and sell limit orders based on share count, high & low prices over any time range, sell count & spread, and buy count & spread. Investors who already hold a larger BABA position than fits their own risk reward profile may be eager to reduce exposure. These Investors can also generate a buy & sell zone chart and tabulate limit orders with the same Excel spreadsheet.</p><p><blockquote>我建议投资者以数字或其他方式在价格图表上涂鸦，然后将限价单制成表格。可下载的Excel电子表格将根据股票数量、任何时间范围内的最高价和最低价、卖出数量和价差以及买入数量和价差生成买入和卖出限价单。已经持有超过自身风险回报状况的阿里巴巴头寸的投资者可能渴望减少风险敞口。这些投资者还可以使用相同的Excel电子表格生成买入和卖出区域图表并将限价单制成表格。</blockquote></p><p>I advise all investors remember the two bulls I recently observed: be the older wiser, bull; have a carefully considered plan; be methodical & patient; and walk. Don't run. Investors who patiently execute carefully considered plans are often lucky.</p><p><blockquote>我建议所有投资者记住我最近观察到的两只牛市：年长的更聪明的牛市；有一个仔细考虑的计划；有条不紊&有耐心；然后走路。别跑。耐心执行经过深思熟虑的计划的投资者往往是幸运的。</blockquote></p><p>In the moment of action, remember the value of silence and order - Phormio of Athens</body></html></p><p><blockquote>在行动的时刻，记住沉默和秩序的价值——雅典的佛米奥</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：短线交易策略</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：短线交易策略</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-06 23:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Over the last 5 days, the market has reached a consensus of sorts on Alibaba's valuation; its value is somewhere between $90.78 and $100.88/share.</li><li>Alibaba has repeatedly traded at high volumes near both value extremes in the last 5 days, sometimes on the same day.</li><li>Alibaba's volatility makes it a great stock for short-term day or swing trading.</li><li>Money in losing positions is often called "dead money". However short-term trading around a losing position can, if executed successfully, lower a position's cost basis and generate return.</li></ul><b>The Young Bull and the Older, Wiser Bull</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去5天，市场对阿里巴巴-SW的估值达成了某种共识；其价值在每股90.78美元至100.88美元之间。</li><li>在过去5天里，阿里巴巴-SW多次在两个价值极值附近进行高交易量交易，有时是在同一天。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW的波动性使其成为短期日内或波段交易的绝佳股票。</li><li>亏损头寸中的钱通常被称为“死钱”。然而，围绕亏损头寸的短期交易如果执行成功，可以降低头寸的成本基础并产生回报。</li></ul><b>年轻的公牛和年长的、更聪明的公牛</b></blockquote></p><p>Recently, I observed an old bull and a young bull grazing in a green pasture on a beautiful, sunny day. The young bull gazed towards a nearby watering hole and noticed a herd of cows had gathered there. The youngster said, "I'm going to run over and buy one of those cows a drink". The older, wiser bull replied, "I'm going to walk over and buy them all a drink".</p><p><blockquote>最近，在一个阳光明媚的日子里，我观察到一头老公牛和一头小公牛在绿色的牧场上吃草。小公牛凝视着附近的一个水坑，注意到一群奶牛聚集在那里。年轻人说，“我要跑过去给那些奶牛买一杯饮料”。年长、聪明的公牛回答说：“我要走过去请他们喝一杯”。</blockquote></p><p><b>Alibaba: A Proverbial Herd of Cows</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW：众所周知的一群牛</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the last year, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) has traded between a high of $182.09 and a low of $73.28. BABA has generally trended down with exceptional volatility and closed on September 2nd at $91.80.</p><p><blockquote>去年，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）的交易价格在182.09美元的高点和73.28美元的低点之间。阿里巴巴总体呈下跌趋势，波动性极高，9月2日收于91.80美元。</blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: 1-Year Price Range</i></p><p><blockquote><i>阿里巴巴：1年价格范围</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca7be63615cd2146c68f392a0cef02e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p>Many portfolios, no doubt, include "dead money" in losing BABA positions with negative unrealized and realized gains. However, each time a share changed hands at every price level, there was a winner and a loser on the trade. Clever or lucky investors sold at a short-term peak to a willing buyer; the opposite case is also true. Over most time ranges, it may be possible to get on the winning side of most trades and generate return even on dead money.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，许多投资组合都包含失去阿里巴巴头寸的“死钱”，未实现和已实现收益均为负。然而，每次股票在每个价格水平易手时，交易中都会有赢家和输家。聪明或幸运的投资者在短期峰值向有意愿的买家出售；反之亦然。在大多数时间范围内，有可能在大多数交易中获胜，甚至在死钱上也能产生回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Short-Term Trading Strategy: Maintain Share Count</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短线交易策略：维持股数</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the last five days, BABA's price range has been $90.78 to $100.88/share. Over the same 5 days, BABA has traded at several shorter-term highs and lows. Based on the recent past and the last year, one could reasonably expect BABA to continue bouncing in a similar way. With the goal of maintaining share count while realizing short-term gains, I recommend a short-term buying and selling strategy based on a relatively simple analysis.</p><p><blockquote>过去五天，阿里巴巴的价格区间为每股90.78美元至100.88美元。在同一5天内，阿里巴巴的交易价格出现了几个短期高点和低点。根据最近和去年的情况，人们可以合理地预计阿里巴巴将继续以类似的方式反弹。以在实现短期收益的同时保持股票数量为目标，我推荐基于相对简单分析的短期买卖策略。</blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy & Sell Ranges - Maintain Share Count</i></p><p><blockquote><i>阿里巴巴：5天价格及买卖范围-维持股票数量</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0037de1ff3e4a30d8de1609790a0ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p>BABA's 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. The green and red shaded areas represent short-term buy and sell zones by the author. The sell and buy ranges begin at 0.75% above and below the median price respectively. The 0.75% spread on each side of the median price range is somewhat arbitrary. It could be narrower or broader depending on several factors including one's risk tolerance, how closely one will follow BABA intraday, and one's planned trading frequency & volume. Based on my analysis of recent trading, I recommend buying BABA beginning at $95.11 and selling beginning at $96.55 in order to realize short-term gains while maintaining share count.</p><p><blockquote>BABA的5天价格范围由蓝色实线表示，蓝色虚线绘制的中值价格为95.83美元。绿色和红色阴影区域代表作者的短期买入和卖出区域。卖出和买入区间分别从中位价格上方和下方0.75%开始。中位价格范围两侧0.75%的价差有些武断。它可能更窄或更宽，具体取决于几个因素，包括一个人的风险承受能力、盘中关注阿里巴巴的密切程度以及一个人计划的交易频率和交易量。根据我对近期交易的分析，我建议从95.11美元开始买入阿里巴巴，从96.55美元开始卖出，以便在保持股数的同时实现短期收益。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Buy & Sell BABA While Maintaining Share Count</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>在维持股票数量的同时买卖阿里巴巴</i></b></blockquote></p><p>This chart was generated with a downloadable Excel spreadsheet by the author.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表是作者用可下载的Excel电子表格生成的。</blockquote></p><p><i>Maintain Share Count</i></p><p><blockquote><i>维护共享计数</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033f311932792e534be4a59481a36ad3\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"734\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Author</p><p><blockquote>作者</blockquote></p><p>Adjustable inputs are in the shaded cells. Buy and sell limit orders are tabulated with a goal of maintaining share count; buy & sell count and spread are equal. I recommend investors who are comfortable with short-term trading place descending buy and ascending sell limit orders on both sides of the short-term median price. Less aggressive investors can place a single limit order or a single buy and sell pair.</p><p><blockquote>可调输入位于阴影单元格中。买卖限价单以维持股数为目标制表；买卖计数和价差相等。我推荐那些对短期交易感到满意的投资者在短期中间价两侧下行买入和上行卖出限价单。不太激进的投资者可以下单个限价单或单个买卖对。</blockquote></p><p>However, based on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, some investors may wish to accumulate BABA.</p><p><blockquote>然而，基于对阿里巴巴估值和势头的简要回顾，一些投资者可能希望积累阿里巴巴。</blockquote></p><p><b>BABA: A Brief Review of Valuation and Momentum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴：估值和势头简要回顾</b></blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: Historical EV/EBITDA Ratio</i></p><p><blockquote><i>阿里巴巴：历史EV/EBITDA比率</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65d572de993b59310b63a1e15952975e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p></p><p>BABA EV/EBITDA is plotted over 3 years and is currently near its lowest point over that time range. The ratio reached a peak in late 2020 (arguably based on positive sentiment and hopeful analysis) and has since fallen on delisting concerns and negative sentiment. I expect delisting concerns to be resolved and sentiment to improve. Based on BABA's current EV/EBITDA ratio, now is a good time to accumulate shares.</p><p><blockquote>BABA EV/EBITDA绘制了3年的图表，目前接近该时间范围内的最低点。该比率在2020年底达到峰值（可以说是基于积极情绪和充满希望的分析），此后因退市担忧和负面情绪而下降。我预计退市担忧将得到解决，市场情绪将有所改善。根据阿里巴巴目前的EV/EBITDA比率，现在是积累股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: Momentum</i></p><p><blockquote><i>爸爸：动量</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08c5bd8470c70c6d1153b9f3e6fec200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p>BABA share price is currently below its 200, 100, 50, and even 10-day simple moving averages. A simple momentum strategy is based on reversion to mean; over most time ranges, share price will oscillate around its mean value. If BABA oscillates towards any of its moving averages, share price will increase.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴股价目前低于200日、100日、50日甚至10日简单移动平均线。一个简单的动量策略是基于均值回归；在大多数时间范围内，股价将围绕其平均值振荡。如果阿里巴巴向任何移动平均线振荡，股价就会上涨。</blockquote></p><p><b>Short-Term Trading Strategy: Accumulate Shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短线交易策略：积累股份</b></blockquote></p><p>Based on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, I recommend investors accumulate BABA. The following graph is nearly identical to the graph discussed above; a single parameter has been adjusted.</p><p><blockquote>基于对阿里巴巴估值和势头的简要回顾，我建议投资者积累阿里巴巴。下图与上面讨论的图几乎相同；调整了一个参数。</blockquote></p><p><i>BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy & Sell Ranges: Accumulate Shares</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BABA：5天价格及买卖范围：累积股票</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0134a770b2e34c173529887827a35fcc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p>Again, BABA's 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. However, the green and red shaded areas representing short-term buy and sell zones are asymmetric with relation to the median price. The sell range begins at 0.75% above the median price while the buy range begins 0.5% below the median price. Short-term trading with these ranges would be more likely to result in accumulation of shares than the "<i>Maintain Share Count"</i>strategy discussed previously.</p><p><blockquote>同样，BABA的5天价格范围由蓝色实线表示，蓝色虚线绘制的中值价格为95.83美元。然而，代表短期买入和卖出区域的绿色和红色阴影区域相对于中值价格是不对称的。卖出区间从中位价格上方0.75%开始，而买入区间从中位价格下方0.5%开始。在这些范围内的短期交易比“<i>维护共享计数”</i>之前讨论过的策略。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Buy & Sell BABA While Accumulating Shares</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>在积累股票的同时买卖阿里巴巴</i></b></blockquote></p><p>This chart is very similar to that discussed with relation to the "<i>Maintain Share Count"</i> strategy and was generated with the same downloadable Excel spreadsheet.</p><p><blockquote>该图表与有关“<i>维护共享计数”</i>策略，并使用相同的可下载Excel电子表格生成。</blockquote></p><p><i>Accumulate Shares</i></p><p><blockquote><i>累积股份</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96237d2d24d5b86f0fd446b9f1ee7ac2\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Author</p><p><blockquote>作者</blockquote></p><p>The only difference is the buy spread has been reduced to 0.50% from 0.75%. The recommended sell orders are identical while the recommended buy orders are slightly more aggressive. In essence, the recommended sell and buy orders would be more likely to result in accumulating shares than those listed in "<i>Buy & Sell BABA While Maintaining Share Count"</i>chart.</p><p><blockquote>唯一的区别是买入价差从0.75%降至0.50%。推荐的卖出订单是相同的，而推荐的买入订单稍微激进一些。本质上，建议的卖出和买入订单比“<i>在维持股票数量的同时买卖阿里巴巴”</i>图表。</blockquote></p><p><b>Short-Term Trading and Wash Sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短线交易洗盘</b></blockquote></p><p>Any buyer or seller of any security including BABA should be aware of IRSrules on wash sales and seek the advice of a licensed accountant or other licensed professional as necessary. A good Seeking Alpha article on wash sale rules is also available. Generally, IRS wash rules apply to the sale and purchase of an identical stock within a 30-day period and are most often applied to tax loss sales.</p><p><blockquote>包括阿里巴巴在内的任何证券的任何买家或卖家都应了解IRS关于wash销售的规则，并在必要时寻求注册会计师或其他注册专业人士的建议。还提供了一篇关于洗售规则的好的Seeking Alpha文章。一般来说，IRS wash规则适用于30天内同一股票的买卖，最常适用于税收损失销售。</blockquote></p><p>Another scenario can be beneficial to investors. If a losing position or fraction thereof is sold and then repurchased at a lesser cost, a wash sale occurs. Most brokerages will adjust the cost basis of the position. It is easiest to discuss with an example and I happen to hold a losing BABA position.</p><p><blockquote>另一种情况可能对投资者有利。如果卖出亏损头寸或其一部分，然后以较低的成本回购，则发生洗盘。多数券商会调整持仓的成本基础。用一个例子来讨论是最容易的，我碰巧持有一个亏损的BABA头寸。</blockquote></p><p>My BABA cost basis is approximately $115. I swing trade losing positions aggressively and have shared my strategy in comments on BABA articles on two occasions. On August 26th, I sold my entire position in 10 blocks with ascending limit orders starting at $98.5 with intervals of $0.5 (98.5, 99, 99.5, …$103) for an average sale price of $100.75. I placed descending limit orders later in the day to buy the same blocks starting at $98 and descending by $0.5. Two of those limit orders closed that day at $98 and $97.5 and subsequently, I was able to refill the remainder of my position with a total average price of $95.75. Notably, I realized neither the highest possible sale price nor the lowest possible purchase price over the period but still gained $5.00 per share. My cost basis was lowered from about $115 to about $110/share.</p><p><blockquote>我的阿里巴巴成本基础约为115美元。我积极波动交易亏损头寸，并曾两次在阿里巴巴文章的评论中分享我的策略。8月26日，我用上涨限价单卖出了10个区块的全部头寸，起价为98.5美元，间隔为0.5美元（98.5，99，99.5，…103美元），平均售价为100.75美元。当天晚些时候，我下了下跌限价单，以98美元开始买入相同的区块，下跌0.5美元。其中两个限价单当天以98美元和97.5美元收盘，随后，我能够以95.75美元的总平均价格重新填充剩余头寸。值得注意的是，在此期间，我既没有意识到最高可能的出售价格，也没有意识到最低可能的购买价格，但每股仍上涨了5.00美元。我的成本基础从每股115美元左右降至110美元左右。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risks: Plan to Win but Be Prepared to Fail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险：计划获胜，但做好失败的准备</b></blockquote></p><p>A thorough fundamental analysis of BABA or discussion of news is beyond the scope of this discussion; there is no shortage of analysis and news elsewhere. If one is going to buy or sell any stock, including short-term, evaluation should be carefully considered.</p><p><blockquote>对阿里巴巴的彻底基本面分析或新闻讨论超出了本次讨论的范围；其他地方也不乏分析和新闻。如果一个人要买卖任何股票，包括短期股票，评估应该仔细考虑。</blockquote></p><p>Further, the recommended buying and selling ranges may not be advantageous over any period if BABA makes a big move in either direction. I recommend traders generate a similar buy/sell plot either with Seeking Alpha's advanced charting tool or by printing and annotating a chart by hand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如果阿里巴巴向任一方向大幅波动，建议的买入和卖出范围在任何时期都可能不是有利的。我建议交易者使用Seeking Alpha的高级图表工具或手动打印和注释图表来生成类似的买入/卖出图。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Short-term trading can go wrong in at least two ways. An investor can sell a fraction of a position or an entire position at the beginning of a sustained rally. That investor might not have an opportunity to repurchase those shares at a lesser price if the stock continues to rally. Conversely, one can purchase an unlimited quantity of shares on a dip and never be able to sell those shares for a gain.</p><p><blockquote>短期交易至少会在两个方面出错。投资者可以在持续反弹开始时卖出一小部分头寸或全部头寸。如果股价继续上涨，该投资者可能没有机会以较低的价格回购这些股票。相反，人们可以在下跌时购买无限数量的股票，但永远无法出售这些股票以获取收益。</blockquote></p><p>An individual investor can manage these risks several ways. Complimentary but opposite limit orders can be placed as transactions close. Some brokerages have special order types whereby a secondary order is placed after a primary order executes. Further, an investor can limit how much of a position is sold or stop buying a dip once a position limit is reached. Both selling and accumulation can be limited by adjusting the frequency, size, and spread of the trades.</p><p><blockquote>个人投资者可以通过多种方式管理这些风险。交易结束时，可以下免费但相反的限价单。一些经纪公司有特殊的订单类型，在主订单执行后下二级订单。此外，投资者可以限制卖出头寸的数量，或者一旦达到头寸限制就停止逢低买入。通过调整交易的频率、规模和价差，可以限制卖出和积累。</blockquote></p><p>An aggressive investor can sell up to 100% of any position at any moment or accumulate limited only by available funds. I recommend blocks no bigger than 10% of target position size with accumulation up to 1.5x target position and selling down to 50% of the same target. In many cases where a stock is volatile, placing ascending and/or descending limit orders can be a successful strategy. More conservative investors can buy and sell in blocks of 5% or less while limiting accumulation to 120% of a target position and selling down to 80% of the same target.</p><p><blockquote>激进的投资者可以在任何时候出售高达100%的任何头寸，或者仅受可用资金限制地积累。我建议持有不超过目标头寸规模10%的区块，累计最高可达目标头寸的1.5倍，并卖出至同一目标的50%。在股票波动较大的许多情况下，下上涨和/或下跌限价单可能是一种成功的策略。更保守的投资者可以按5%或更少的比例进行买卖，同时将积累限制在目标头寸的120%，并将出售限制在同一目标的80%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Investor Takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p>Based on current valuation and momentum, I would not recommend decreasing a BABA position at this time. BABA positions are not dead money; I advise most investors trade BABA short-term with the goal of generating return while accumulating shares. I recommend most investors buy BABA below $95.35 and sell above $96.55 if trading remains in a range similar to the last five days. Notably, Baba closed at $91.80 on Friday and may open below $95.35 on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>根据目前的估值和势头，我不建议此时减少阿里巴巴的头寸。阿里巴巴头寸不是死钱；我建议大多数投资者短期交易阿里巴巴，目标是在积累股票的同时产生回报。如果交易保持在与过去五天类似的范围内，我建议大多数投资者在95.35美元以下买入阿里巴巴，并在96.55美元以上卖出。值得注意的是，阿里巴巴周五收于91.80美元，周二开盘价可能低于95.35美元。</blockquote></p><p>I recommend investors do their own scribbling over a price chart digitally or otherwise and then tabulate limit orders. The downloadable Excel spreadsheet will generate buy and sell limit orders based on share count, high & low prices over any time range, sell count & spread, and buy count & spread. Investors who already hold a larger BABA position than fits their own risk reward profile may be eager to reduce exposure. These Investors can also generate a buy & sell zone chart and tabulate limit orders with the same Excel spreadsheet.</p><p><blockquote>我建议投资者以数字或其他方式在价格图表上涂鸦，然后将限价单制成表格。可下载的Excel电子表格将根据股票数量、任何时间范围内的最高价和最低价、卖出数量和价差以及买入数量和价差生成买入和卖出限价单。已经持有超过自身风险回报状况的阿里巴巴头寸的投资者可能渴望减少风险敞口。这些投资者还可以使用相同的Excel电子表格生成买入和卖出区域图表并将限价单制成表格。</blockquote></p><p>I advise all investors remember the two bulls I recently observed: be the older wiser, bull; have a carefully considered plan; be methodical & patient; and walk. Don't run. Investors who patiently execute carefully considered plans are often lucky.</p><p><blockquote>我建议所有投资者记住我最近观察到的两只牛市：年长的更聪明的牛市；有一个仔细考虑的计划；有条不紊&有耐心；然后走路。别跑。耐心执行经过深思熟虑的计划的投资者往往是幸运的。</blockquote></p><p>In the moment of action, remember the value of silence and order - Phormio of Athens</body></html></p><p><blockquote>在行动的时刻，记住沉默和秩序的价值——雅典的佛米奥</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538878-alibaba-short-term-trading-strategy?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A24\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538878-alibaba-short-term-trading-strategy?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A24","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199050881","content_text":"SummaryOver the last 5 days, the market has reached a consensus of sorts on Alibaba's valuation; its value is somewhere between $90.78 and $100.88/share.Alibaba has repeatedly traded at high volumes near both value extremes in the last 5 days, sometimes on the same day.Alibaba's volatility makes it a great stock for short-term day or swing trading.Money in losing positions is often called \"dead money\". However short-term trading around a losing position can, if executed successfully, lower a position's cost basis and generate return.The Young Bull and the Older, Wiser BullRecently, I observed an old bull and a young bull grazing in a green pasture on a beautiful, sunny day. The young bull gazed towards a nearby watering hole and noticed a herd of cows had gathered there. The youngster said, \"I'm going to run over and buy one of those cows a drink\". The older, wiser bull replied, \"I'm going to walk over and buy them all a drink\".Alibaba: A Proverbial Herd of CowsOver the last year, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) has traded between a high of $182.09 and a low of $73.28. BABA has generally trended down with exceptional volatility and closed on September 2nd at $91.80.BABA: 1-Year Price RangeSeeking AlphaMany portfolios, no doubt, include \"dead money\" in losing BABA positions with negative unrealized and realized gains. However, each time a share changed hands at every price level, there was a winner and a loser on the trade. Clever or lucky investors sold at a short-term peak to a willing buyer; the opposite case is also true. Over most time ranges, it may be possible to get on the winning side of most trades and generate return even on dead money.Short-Term Trading Strategy: Maintain Share CountOver the last five days, BABA's price range has been $90.78 to $100.88/share. Over the same 5 days, BABA has traded at several shorter-term highs and lows. Based on the recent past and the last year, one could reasonably expect BABA to continue bouncing in a similar way. With the goal of maintaining share count while realizing short-term gains, I recommend a short-term buying and selling strategy based on a relatively simple analysis.BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy & Sell Ranges - Maintain Share CountSeeking AlphaBABA's 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. The green and red shaded areas represent short-term buy and sell zones by the author. The sell and buy ranges begin at 0.75% above and below the median price respectively. The 0.75% spread on each side of the median price range is somewhat arbitrary. It could be narrower or broader depending on several factors including one's risk tolerance, how closely one will follow BABA intraday, and one's planned trading frequency & volume. Based on my analysis of recent trading, I recommend buying BABA beginning at $95.11 and selling beginning at $96.55 in order to realize short-term gains while maintaining share count.Buy & Sell BABA While Maintaining Share CountThis chart was generated with a downloadable Excel spreadsheet by the author.Maintain Share CountAuthorAdjustable inputs are in the shaded cells. Buy and sell limit orders are tabulated with a goal of maintaining share count; buy & sell count and spread are equal. I recommend investors who are comfortable with short-term trading place descending buy and ascending sell limit orders on both sides of the short-term median price. Less aggressive investors can place a single limit order or a single buy and sell pair.However, based on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, some investors may wish to accumulate BABA.BABA: A Brief Review of Valuation and MomentumBABA: Historical EV/EBITDA RatioSeeking AlphaBABA EV/EBITDA is plotted over 3 years and is currently near its lowest point over that time range. The ratio reached a peak in late 2020 (arguably based on positive sentiment and hopeful analysis) and has since fallen on delisting concerns and negative sentiment. I expect delisting concerns to be resolved and sentiment to improve. Based on BABA's current EV/EBITDA ratio, now is a good time to accumulate shares.BABA: MomentumSeeking AlphaBABA share price is currently below its 200, 100, 50, and even 10-day simple moving averages. A simple momentum strategy is based on reversion to mean; over most time ranges, share price will oscillate around its mean value. If BABA oscillates towards any of its moving averages, share price will increase.Short-Term Trading Strategy: Accumulate SharesBased on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, I recommend investors accumulate BABA. The following graph is nearly identical to the graph discussed above; a single parameter has been adjusted.BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy & Sell Ranges: Accumulate SharesSeeking AlphaAgain, BABA's 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. However, the green and red shaded areas representing short-term buy and sell zones are asymmetric with relation to the median price. The sell range begins at 0.75% above the median price while the buy range begins 0.5% below the median price. Short-term trading with these ranges would be more likely to result in accumulation of shares than the \"Maintain Share Count\"strategy discussed previously.Buy & Sell BABA While Accumulating SharesThis chart is very similar to that discussed with relation to the \"Maintain Share Count\" strategy and was generated with the same downloadable Excel spreadsheet.Accumulate SharesAuthorThe only difference is the buy spread has been reduced to 0.50% from 0.75%. The recommended sell orders are identical while the recommended buy orders are slightly more aggressive. In essence, the recommended sell and buy orders would be more likely to result in accumulating shares than those listed in \"Buy & Sell BABA While Maintaining Share Count\"chart.Short-Term Trading and Wash SalesAny buyer or seller of any security including BABA should be aware of IRSrules on wash sales and seek the advice of a licensed accountant or other licensed professional as necessary. A good Seeking Alpha article on wash sale rules is also available. Generally, IRS wash rules apply to the sale and purchase of an identical stock within a 30-day period and are most often applied to tax loss sales.Another scenario can be beneficial to investors. If a losing position or fraction thereof is sold and then repurchased at a lesser cost, a wash sale occurs. Most brokerages will adjust the cost basis of the position. It is easiest to discuss with an example and I happen to hold a losing BABA position.My BABA cost basis is approximately $115. I swing trade losing positions aggressively and have shared my strategy in comments on BABA articles on two occasions. On August 26th, I sold my entire position in 10 blocks with ascending limit orders starting at $98.5 with intervals of $0.5 (98.5, 99, 99.5, …$103) for an average sale price of $100.75. I placed descending limit orders later in the day to buy the same blocks starting at $98 and descending by $0.5. Two of those limit orders closed that day at $98 and $97.5 and subsequently, I was able to refill the remainder of my position with a total average price of $95.75. Notably, I realized neither the highest possible sale price nor the lowest possible purchase price over the period but still gained $5.00 per share. My cost basis was lowered from about $115 to about $110/share.Risks: Plan to Win but Be Prepared to FailA thorough fundamental analysis of BABA or discussion of news is beyond the scope of this discussion; there is no shortage of analysis and news elsewhere. If one is going to buy or sell any stock, including short-term, evaluation should be carefully considered.Further, the recommended buying and selling ranges may not be advantageous over any period if BABA makes a big move in either direction. I recommend traders generate a similar buy/sell plot either with Seeking Alpha's advanced charting tool or by printing and annotating a chart by hand.Short-term trading can go wrong in at least two ways. An investor can sell a fraction of a position or an entire position at the beginning of a sustained rally. That investor might not have an opportunity to repurchase those shares at a lesser price if the stock continues to rally. Conversely, one can purchase an unlimited quantity of shares on a dip and never be able to sell those shares for a gain.An individual investor can manage these risks several ways. Complimentary but opposite limit orders can be placed as transactions close. Some brokerages have special order types whereby a secondary order is placed after a primary order executes. Further, an investor can limit how much of a position is sold or stop buying a dip once a position limit is reached. Both selling and accumulation can be limited by adjusting the frequency, size, and spread of the trades.An aggressive investor can sell up to 100% of any position at any moment or accumulate limited only by available funds. I recommend blocks no bigger than 10% of target position size with accumulation up to 1.5x target position and selling down to 50% of the same target. In many cases where a stock is volatile, placing ascending and/or descending limit orders can be a successful strategy. More conservative investors can buy and sell in blocks of 5% or less while limiting accumulation to 120% of a target position and selling down to 80% of the same target.Investor TakeawaysBased on current valuation and momentum, I would not recommend decreasing a BABA position at this time. BABA positions are not dead money; I advise most investors trade BABA short-term with the goal of generating return while accumulating shares. I recommend most investors buy BABA below $95.35 and sell above $96.55 if trading remains in a range similar to the last five days. Notably, Baba closed at $91.80 on Friday and may open below $95.35 on Tuesday.I recommend investors do their own scribbling over a price chart digitally or otherwise and then tabulate limit orders. The downloadable Excel spreadsheet will generate buy and sell limit orders based on share count, high & low prices over any time range, sell count & spread, and buy count & spread. Investors who already hold a larger BABA position than fits their own risk reward profile may be eager to reduce exposure. These Investors can also generate a buy & sell zone chart and tabulate limit orders with the same Excel spreadsheet.I advise all investors remember the two bulls I recently observed: be the older wiser, bull; have a carefully considered plan; be methodical & patient; and walk. Don't run. Investors who patiently execute carefully considered plans are often lucky.In the moment of action, remember the value of silence and order - Phormio of Athens","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":660888876,"gmtCreate":1661524664898,"gmtModify":1661524951918,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570187411453325","authorIdStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stock split means more retail investors can have a stake in the company and not the company is issuing more shares.","listText":"Stock split means more retail investors can have a stake in the company and not the company is issuing more shares.","text":"Stock split means more retail investors can have a stake in the company and not the company is issuing more shares.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c23e3754b302c0b94cb6df0a3594da32","width":"750","height":"890"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/660888876","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687433039,"gmtCreate":1661213823223,"gmtModify":1661213826602,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570187411453325","authorIdStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla still the EV market leader!","listText":"Tesla still the EV market leader!","text":"Tesla still the EV market leader!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/687433039","repostId":"1131026217","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131026217","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661212670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131026217?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-23 07:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"TSLA Stock Falls as Tesla Hikes FSD Prices<blockquote>特斯拉提高FSD价格，特斯拉股价下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131026217","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Elon Musk has announced that Tesla(TSLA) is preparing for an important price hike.The company's full","content":"<p><div> Elon Musk has announced that Tesla(TSLA) is preparing for an important price hike.The company's full-self driving (FSD) package will cost $15,000 in September.TSLA stock is falling as investors wonder...</p><p><blockquote><div>Elon Musk宣布特斯拉(TSLA)正准备大幅提价。该公司的全自动驾驶(FSD)套件将于9月份售价为15,000美元。由于投资者想知道，特斯拉股价正在下跌……</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/tsla-stock-falls-as-tesla-hikes-fsd-prices/\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/tsla-stock-falls-as-tesla-hikes-fsd-prices/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSLA Stock Falls as Tesla Hikes FSD Prices<blockquote>特斯拉提高FSD价格，特斯拉股价下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSLA Stock Falls as Tesla Hikes FSD Prices<blockquote>特斯拉提高FSD价格，特斯拉股价下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-23 07:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Elon Musk has announced that Tesla(TSLA) is preparing for an important price hike.The company's full-self driving (FSD) package will cost $15,000 in September.TSLA stock is falling as investors wonder...</p><p><blockquote><div>Elon Musk宣布特斯拉(TSLA)正准备大幅提价。该公司的全自动驾驶(FSD)套件将于9月份售价为15,000美元。由于投资者想知道，特斯拉股价正在下跌……</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/tsla-stock-falls-as-tesla-hikes-fsd-prices/\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/tsla-stock-falls-as-tesla-hikes-fsd-prices/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/tsla-stock-falls-as-tesla-hikes-fsd-prices/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/tsla-stock-falls-as-tesla-hikes-fsd-prices/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131026217","content_text":"Elon Musk has announced that Tesla(TSLA) is preparing for an important price hike.The company's full-self driving (FSD) package will cost $15,000 in September.TSLA stock is falling as investors wonder if the product is worth the price.Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) is starting this week off in the red. TSLA stock will begin trading on a split basis later in the week, but today’s decline is due to a separate catalyst. Elon Musk has announced Tesla will be raising the price of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, its premium driver assistance software. Currently priced at $12,000, the product will be sold for $15,o0o starting Sept. 5, representing a 25% markup.As CNBC reports, “All new Tesla vehicles come with a standard driver assistance package called Autopilot, which includes features like ‘Traffic-Aware Cruise Control’ and ‘Autosteer.’ These rely on cameras, other sensors, hardware and software to automatically keep a Tesla vehicle centered in its lane and traveling at the speed of surrounding traffic.”Tesla’s FSD technology has generated plenty of controversy as it has progressed. But Musk clearly thinks demand will increase enough in the coming year to justify a price hike. Let’s dive into what TSLA stock investors can expect both before and after the FSD price hike.What it Means for TSLA StockTSLA stock quickly fell after markets opened today. But Musk had already announced this news over the weekend through his favorite medium. On the morning of Aug. 21, he tweeted the following message, also highlighting the long-awaited 10.69.2 Beta update:In a comment on the post, Musk also noted that Tesla owners can upgrade their existing cars to FSD in two minutes by using the company’s app.Electrek reports Tesla rolled out the upgrade to 1,000 testers over the weekend. The outlet highlights the patch notes posted online appeared similar to leaked notes from the 10.13 beta upgrade, citing improvements to left turns and animal and pedestrian detection. While this sounds like positive improvements, Musk’s announcement raises one important question: is the product worth the price hike?One expert doesn’t think so. John Koetsier is an AI and tech expert and host of the popular podcastTechFirst. He commented on Musk’s tweeted stating, “Way too expensive. You’re going to drive people to other car brands that include it.” When someone asked him to name examples of other companies providing a similar FSD software, Koetsier cited the Cadillac Super Cruise package. This alternative is offered by General Motors(NYSE:GM) for substantially less than Tesla’s equivalent. In early 2022, Input reported the following:“GM’s Super Cruise is making a play to become the gold standard for driving assist. While it takes a longer time to establish the Super Cruise network compared to Tesla’s approach, GM is well on its way to making it available on major highways and roads. Super Cruise, like Tesla’s Autopilot, is subscription-based, and costs $25 a month, though it does come free for three years with most GM vehicles.”The current monthly subscription cost for Tesla’s FSD package is $199. Next to that, GM’s option looks like an excellent deal. While it’s true that most other automakers aren’t offering similar products, Koetsier also states others will follow.Ford(NYSE:F) is already introducing the BlueCruise system, formerly known as Active Driver Assist.The Road AheadWhile these companies haven’t been able to rival Tesla’s electric vehicle (EV) sales, FSD is a new type of technology that is poised to grow in popularity. Companies that are early to the party will have at least a chance at securing a market share, particularly as Tesla’s FSD tech has been flamed for multiple accidents. If another automaker’s driver assistance tech can help garner public trust, it could push TSLA stock down.As such, it doesn’t make sense for Tesla to be raising prices at such a critical time. TSLA stock tell after the company raised EV prices in June 2022. Since demand for FSD packages isn’t as high as it is for Tesla vehicles, these price hikes could push it down even further.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687439728,"gmtCreate":1661213777366,"gmtModify":1661213782485,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570187411453325","authorIdStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks very much for this detail write out!","listText":"Thanks very much for this detail write out!","text":"Thanks very much for this detail write out!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/687439728","repostId":"1113960584","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113960584","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661237527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113960584?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-23 14:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal<blockquote>SPDR标普500指数ETF：是时候退出了，卖空量疲软预示着逆转</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113960584","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging t","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>The base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging to stop the most lagged part of inflation.</li><li>The markets don't realize that fed members are in full hawkish mode. Although the market is certain about a soft-landing, the fed indicator suggests a recession.</li><li>Short-covering contributed to the latest bear market rally significantly. As there are very low short sales volumes right now, the reversion could be next.</li><li>SPY significantly deviated from real yields (strong inverse correlation) and this exemption won't last long.</li><li>The macroeconomic outlook could worsen with additional rate hikes, which is not supportive for EPS.</li></ul>In my most recent bond analysis, which focused on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), inflation, and monetary outlook, we predicted that the YoY and MoM inflation peaks would both occur in the months of July - September. I wagered that commodity prices would decline and that other leading indicators would also dramatically deteriorate. However the Fed responds to the most lagging inflation parts, the CPI/PCE/core CPI report from July is not initially bullish. Lower commodities prices had a significant impact on the MoM's "stabilization," but the most lagging drivers to the CPI - shelter and services are still quite high and are still increasing. The necessary items, which the Fed wants to stabilize, are not stabilizing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基数效应是通胀见顶的根本原因。阻止通胀最滞后的部分将是一项挑战。</li><li>市场没有意识到美联储成员完全处于鹰派模式。尽管市场肯定会软着陆，但美联储指标显示经济衰退。</li><li>空头回补对最近的熊市反弹做出了重大贡献。由于目前卖空量非常低，下一个可能会出现逆转。</li><li>SPDR标普500指数ETF明显偏离实际收益率（强负相关），这种豁免不会持续太久。</li><li>进一步加息可能会导致宏观经济前景恶化，这对每股收益不利。</li></ul>在我最近的债券分析中，重点关注iShares 20+年期国债ETF(TLT)、通胀和货币前景，我们预测同比和环比通胀峰值都将出现在7月至9月。我打赌大宗商品价格会下跌，其他领先指标也会大幅恶化。无论美联储如何应对最滞后的通胀部分，7月份的CPI/PCE/核心CPI报告最初并不乐观。大宗商品价格下跌对MoM的“企稳”产生了重大影响，但CPI最滞后的驱动因素——住房和服务业仍然相当高，并且仍在增加。美联储想要稳定的必要项目并没有稳定下来。</blockquote></p><p>On first glance, the market rallied due to strong data from inflation prints, but in our breakdown, the data has not been strong at all. SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) deviated from the long-term inverse correlation between real yields and SPY's price mainly due to a "strong fundamental week." However, I'm firmly convinced this was another bear market rally. Medium-term inflation expectations rose, which is not a good case for stocks. In summary, we can await more rate hikes to come, more than the market currently prices in.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，由于通胀数据强劲，市场上涨，但在我们的细分中，数据一点也不强劲。SPDR标普500信托ETF（NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF）偏离了实际收益率与SPDR标普500指数ETF价格之间的长期负相关关系，主要是由于“强劲的基本面周”。然而，我坚信这是另一次熊市反弹。中期通胀预期上升，这对股票来说不是一个好的案例。总而言之，我们可以等待更多加息，幅度超过市场目前的预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>Inflation breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀细分</b></blockquote></p><p>The CPI's YoY growth was still high at 8.5% and rose in July by zero percent. However, the core CPI rose "only" by 0.2%, which was lower than the consensus. Nevertheless, if you make an inflation breakdown, you will see the drivers. Motor fuel (oil & gas) has contributed very negatively to the overall CPI monthly change. This item is the most current in the lagged CPI. However, the most lagging components of the CPI are housing, food prices, medical care services, and other services, and it will take some time for these inputs to stabilize or decline.</p><p><blockquote>CPI同比增速仍高达8.5%，7月份涨幅为零。然而，核心CPI“仅”上涨0.2%，低于市场普遍预期。然而，如果你对通货膨胀进行细分，你就会看到驱动因素。汽车燃料（石油和天然气）对整体CPI月度变化的贡献非常负面。该项目是滞后CPI中最新的。然而，CPI最滞后的组成部分是住房、食品价格、医疗保健服务和其他服务，这些投入需要一段时间才能稳定或下降。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32fb983d571f92f960166b97b1eb1e09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>CPI monthly change(@MacroAlf)</p><p><blockquote>CPI月度变化(@MacroAlf)</blockquote></p><p>As I stated in my previous analysis on TLT, the consumer destruction will take place in 2-3 months. The issue is that supply-side inflation (mainly oil, gas, and other commodities) can be impacted only indirectly - mainly by lowered demand. That is what we see in the commodity market right now. Industrial commodities and the ones that have a great impact on overall CPI started to decline. But it does not reflect only demand destruction but also the quite strong economic slowdown (forward-looking). I still believe inflation will go down, but mainly due to the strong base effect caused by the measured style-YoY comparison. The much more important figure will be core inflation on a monthly basis.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前对TLT的分析中所说，消费者的毁灭将在2-3个月内发生。问题在于，供给侧通胀（主要是石油、天然气和其他大宗商品）只能受到间接影响——主要是需求下降。这就是我们目前在大宗商品市场上看到的情况。工业品和对整体CPI影响较大的商品开始回落。但这不仅反映了需求破坏，还反映了相当强劲的经济放缓（前瞻性）。我仍然相信通胀会下降，但主要是由于实测风格同比比较带来的强劲基数效应。更重要的数字将是月度核心通胀率。</blockquote></p><p>Still, if inflation were to be zero on a monthly basis till the end of the year, it would still be at 6.5%, and if it were to be longer, it would be at 3.3% in March. Still significantly above the fed's medium-term target. I am confident that inflation will fall, and that we will see a significant slowdown in 4Q2022, but this must be accompanied by a continued reduction in consumption and GDP growth forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，如果通胀率在年底前按月为零，仍将为6.5%，如果通胀率更长，3月份将为3.3%。仍明显高于美联储的中期目标。我有信心通货膨胀会下降，而且2022年第四季度我们会看到明显放缓，但是这必须伴随着消费和GDP增长预测的继续下调。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16abe6e1dd19cfbe7ada120183feb6d6\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Projecting CPI at Year-End(BLS, Cleveland Federal Reserve Nowcast)</p><p><blockquote>预测年底CPI（BLS、克利夫兰联储即时预测）</blockquote></p><p><b>Outlook on the monetary policy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>货币政策展望</b></blockquote></p><p>I'm strongly convinced that inflation will go down on a YoY basis. On the other hand, I'm a little bit less convinced by the MoM point of view. To support this scenario, the fed will need to be very hawkish to convince the market that it will do so. Despite still having a very inverted yield curve, the market started to price in fewer rate cuts than anticipated 2-3 weeks ago. And this is all on the back of lower-than-expected inflation figures from a week ago. The spread between Fed funds futures rates in Dec 2022 and Dec 2023 is reaching less than -0.2, thus implying market expectations of almost only one rate cut till Dec 2023.</p><p><blockquote>我坚信通货膨胀将同比下降。另一方面，我不太相信妈妈的观点。为了支持这种情况，美联储需要非常强硬地让市场相信它会这样做。尽管收益率曲线仍然非常倒挂，但市场开始消化的降息幅度低于2-3周前的预期。这一切都是基于一周前低于预期的通胀数据。2022年12月和2023年12月联邦基金期货利率之间的利差达到-0.2以下，这意味着市场预期到2023年12月几乎只会降息一次。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a4b790ae098a035c35b830ca03c865\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Spread between FFF 12/2022 and 12/2023(Author´s calculation via Tradingview)</p><p><blockquote>FFF 12/2022和12/2023之间的利差（作者通过Tradingview计算）</blockquote></p><p>Despite the fact that the market began slightly repeating the FOMC member's rhetoric, the stocks rallied significantly. It is because the market believed the narrative of "soft-landing" to be more probable than before inflation prints. However, the inflation fight is still not over. I consider this rally unsustainable and not supported by the macro fundamentals. After the inflation print, rates expectations measured by Fed funds futures rose quite significantly.</p><p><blockquote>尽管市场开始略微重复联邦公开市场委员会成员的言论，但股市仍大幅上涨。这是因为市场认为“软着陆”的说法比通胀数据公布前更有可能出现。然而，通胀斗争仍未结束。我认为这次反弹是不可持续的，也没有宏观基本面的支持。通胀数据公布后，以联邦基金期货衡量的利率预期大幅上升。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33f3f05a2f5ce92a0dc8992ced3b6a53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Rates expectations measured by FFF(Author´s calculations via Tradingview)</p><p><blockquote>FFF衡量的利率预期（作者通过Tradingview计算）</blockquote></p><p>Thus, retail investors are fairly misled by inflation print and soft-landing. This scenario does not support the thesis of being bullish at current levels. However, for me, the very strong narrative stands behind the real yields and SPY. There is a very strong negative correlation among the variables, which the market fully ignored until Friday.</p><p><blockquote>因此，散户投资者被通胀数据和软着陆误导了。这种情况并不支持在当前水平看涨的论点。然而，对我来说，真实收益率和SPDR标普500指数ETF背后有着非常强有力的叙述。变量之间存在非常强的负相关性，直到周五市场才完全忽略了这一点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fed22002670360778cb46af429c3e6fd\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Real Yields vs. S&P500(Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p><blockquote>实际收益率与标准普尔500指数（彭博社、摩根士丹利研究）</blockquote></p><p><b>The key driver of the latest rally was short-covering</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近一次反弹的关键驱动力是空头回补</b></blockquote></p><p>As many investors / traders followed the inflation print and saw a market rally, they massively closed their short positions or bets, which led to a significant rally from the bottom. That's the true reason why the market rallied in the previous weeks. And it only makes sense to me because macro fundamentals such as real yields and other leading indicators have all worsened, just hand in hand with a strong labor market. Despite the rise in real yields, the market rallied in recent weeks, their negative correlation deviated significantly from normal conditions, giving me no reason to be bullish from a macro perspective.</p><p><blockquote>由于许多投资者/交易者跟随通胀数据并看到市场反弹，他们大量平仓空头头寸或押注，这导致了从底部的大幅反弹。这才是前几周市场上涨的真正原因。这对我来说才有意义，因为实际收益率和其他领先指标等宏观基本面都在恶化，只是与强劲的劳动力市场齐头并进。尽管实际收益率上升，市场在最近几周反弹，但它们的负相关性明显偏离了正常情况，从宏观角度来看，我没有理由看涨。</blockquote></p><p>On the contrary, as I said, the rally was caused mainly by short covering (the closing of short position) and it was the 3rd most aggressive short-covering in the latest ten years.</p><p><blockquote>相反，正如我所说，反弹主要是由空头回补（空头头寸平仓）引起的，这是最近十年中第三次最激进的空头回补。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4500679330262cedb633a0fba418e7ad\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Short covering / Short selling(GS Prime Book via Investro)</p><p><blockquote>空头回补/卖空（GS Prime Book via Investro）</blockquote></p><p>And also a great chart from @MacroCharts, which measures the sum of (QQQ) deltas, indicated that this massive rally was caused by a full switch of position. As there are monitored deltas for QQQ, I believe it will be similar for the S&P 500 or SPY, because major stocks from QQQ are also integrated with significant weights in SPY. From the extremely short to the extremely long ones. For me, it is absolutely unsustainable to remain at such levels, and the rising probability of further downturn, combined with macro fundamentals, gives me quite strong confidence.</p><p><blockquote>@MacroCharts的一张很棒的图表测量了(QQQ)增量之和，表明这次大规模反弹是由头寸完全转换引起的。由于QQQ有受监控的增量，我相信标普500或SPDR标普500指数ETF的情况也会类似，因为QQQ的主要股票在SPDR标普500指数ETF也具有重要权重。从极短到极长。对我来说，维持在这样的水平是绝对不可持续的，而进一步下行的概率上升，结合宏观基本面，给了我相当强的信心。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/984923367a1ab56eb4804dde1f6a5a07\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Sum of QQQ Deltas(Charlie Mcelligott / Nomura via @MacroCharts)</p><p><blockquote>QQQ增量之和（Charlie Mcelligott/野村证券，来自@MacroCharts）</blockquote></p><p>Another very important measure, which I highly recommend, is to follow short sale volumes for SPY/QQQ and others. The chart below just implies there is a lack of shorts or very low activity in short selling, which is a great contrarian indicator. The 10-day moving average of short sale volume, measured by FINRA, indicates there is a lack of short sale volume, indicates the market is probably exhausted. It also confirms the thesis of short-covering rally in the previous weeks as well. Just look at the significant numbers of short selling in mid June, in hand with the market bottom. There should be no surprises about the following market squeeze or strong short-covering activity. Currently, I see a strong reversal situation, thus giving room for another leg down in SPY. However, I also could be wrong, but combined with the real yields narrative, the worsening economic situation, and the strong contrarian indicator of short sale volume, I am firmly convinced this was another bear market rally.</p><p><blockquote>我强烈推荐的另一个非常重要的措施是跟踪SPDR标普500指数ETF/QQQ和其他公司的卖空量。下图只是暗示缺乏空头或卖空活动非常低，这是一个很好的反向指标。FINRA测量的卖空量10天移动平均线表明卖空量不足，表明市场可能已经疲惫不堪。这也证实了前几周空头回补反弹的论点。只要看看六月中旬市场触底时大量卖空就知道了。接下来的市场挤压或强劲的空头回补活动应该不会令人意外。目前，我看到了强劲的逆转情况，从而为SPDR标普500指数ETF的另一次下跌提供了空间。然而，我也可能是错的，但结合实际收益率叙述、不断恶化的经济形势以及卖空量的强劲逆势指标，我坚信这是另一次熊市反弹。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Fed believes a soft landing is less likely than the market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储认为软着陆的可能性低于市场</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The reason why I believe such a narrative is caused by FOMC members' statements as well as by the data-driven approach. First of all, there are leading indicators that are screaming to us that inflation as well as economic growth will slow down. However, as previously stated, the YoY will slow, and the MoM will most likely stabilize. However, even if there is a 0% MoM change until the end of the year, inflation will still be significantly above the medium term horizon and above the fed's key target. With so strong numbers from the labor market, the fed can be calm to focus really on inflation and to tame it. The sacrifice would be economic growth. This is the reason why I believe rate hikes will continue until the fed sees a portion of lagging core CPI MoM moving around -0.2% to 0.1% in the medium term.</p><p><blockquote>我之所以相信这样的叙述，是由FOMC成员的声明以及数据驱动的方法造成的。首先，有领先指标向我们尖叫，通胀和经济增长都将放缓。然而，如前所述，同比将会放缓，而环比很可能会稳定下来。然而，即使年底前环比变化为0%，通胀仍将明显高于中期水平，也高于美联储的关键目标。由于劳动力市场数据如此强劲，美联储可以冷静地真正关注通胀并抑制通胀。牺牲的将是经济增长。这就是为什么我认为加息将持续下去，直到美联储看到部分滞后的核心CPI环比在中期内徘徊在-0.2%至0.1%左右。</blockquote></p><p>Now, let's summarize some of the latest statements from FOMC members.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们总结一下FOMC成员的一些最新表态。</blockquote></p><p>Fed's Bullard, according to Reuters:</p><p><blockquote>据路透社报道，美联储布拉德：</blockquote></p><p><i>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who was among the central bank's earliest advocates last year of a more muscular response to fast-building price pressures, said that given the strength of the economy he is currently leaning toward supporting a third straight 75-basis-point interest rate hike in September.</i>Also, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve,stated earlier on Thursday that raising rates by 50 or 75 basis points at the fed's upcoming policy meeting on September 20-21 would be a "reasonable" way to raise short-term borrowing costs to slightly above 3% by the end of this year and put them on a path to a little bit higher in 2023.</p><p><blockquote><i>圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德(James Bullard)是美联储去年最早主张对快速上涨的物价压力做出更有力反应的人之一，他表示，鉴于经济实力，他目前倾向于支持连续第三次75个基点的加息。</i>此外，旧金山联储主席Mary Daly周四早些时候表示，在美联储即将于9月20日至21日举行的政策会议上加息50或75个基点将是提高短期借贷成本的“合理”方式，到今年年底将略高于3%，并在2023年走上略高的道路。</blockquote></p><p>Also a kindly hawkish note from the Fed's Kashkari:</p><p><blockquote>美联储卡什卡利也发表了善意的鹰派言论：</blockquote></p><p><i>So the question right now is, can we bring inflation down without triggering a recession? And my answer to that question is: I don’t know. Fed has more work to do in raising interest rates to bring inflation down.</i>Despite the better than expected inflation print, the fight is not over and there must be a clear indication of tightening conditions that will continue to bring inflation down. Until then, the market still hopes for a soft-landing as in 2019, but this is really different story. I'm firmly convinced it will bring a bigger economic slowdown than the current one, but I don't know if it will be a big recession. Probably not. But it will be harder than soft-landing. Kashkari is one of the first FOMC members to admit that they are unsure whether it will cause the recession or not. They just can't tell you, "for sure we will cause a recession." However, in the previous months, when the yield curve started to be inverted, the fed screamed that it was not an appropriate indicator of recession. The opposite is the truth.</p><p><blockquote><i>所以现在的问题是，我们能否在不引发衰退的情况下降低通胀？我对这个问题的回答是：我不知道。美联储在加息以降低通胀方面还有更多工作要做。</i>尽管通胀数据好于预期，但斗争尚未结束，必须有明确的迹象表明紧缩条件将继续压低通胀。在此之前，市场仍然希望像2019年那样软着陆，但这确实是另一回事。我坚信它会带来比目前更大的经济放缓，但我不知道这是否会是一场大衰退。应该不会吧。但这将比软着陆更难。卡什卡利是首批承认他们不确定这是否会导致经济衰退的FOMC成员之一。他们只是不能告诉你，“我们肯定会导致衰退。”然而，在前几个月，当收益率曲线开始倒挂时，美联储尖叫称这不是一个合适的衰退指标。事实恰恰相反。</blockquote></p><p>However, the fed released its own indicator of forecasting recession, slightly different than the classic yield curve, which had not been inverted before. It is now fully inverted, which, according to previous fed papers, should clearly indicate a recession going forward. A great chart from@MacroAlfcalculated the development of this indicator, and as it was almost one month ago, it started to be inverted, thus confirming that the fed knows and is aware of the ongoing recession. Regardless of what they say. It was the only opinion as the yield curve started to be inverted that it was better to monitor the "near-term spread," calculated as 18m forward 3m yields minus 3m yields, as it is a much more precise predictor of the upcoming recession.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美联储发布了自己预测衰退的指标，与经典的收益率曲线略有不同，后者此前并未出现倒挂。现在它已经完全倒挂，根据美联储之前的文件，这应该清楚地表明未来将出现衰退。@MacroAlf的一张很棒的图表计算了该指标的发展，就像大约一个月前一样，它开始倒挂，从而证实了美联储知道并意识到正在进行的衰退。不管他们怎么说。当收益率曲线开始倒挂时，唯一的观点是最好监控“近期利差”，计算为1800万远期300万收益率减去300万收益率，因为它是对即将到来的衰退的更精确的预测。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aced83130fc7620517eccea36b9a2d28\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Fed´s preferred yield curve indicator(@MacroAlf)</p><p><blockquote>美联储首选收益率曲线指标(@MacroAlf)</blockquote></p><p><b>Earnings are lagged, CPI too</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利滞后，CPI也滞后</b></blockquote></p><p>However, I'm convinced that CPI will go down and the fed will tame inflation. The issue is that there will be an EPS drop as well. To tame inflation rapidly, it is necessary to cause an economic slowdown. However, it is happening right now, and many leading indicators are confirming this thesis. Companies are oversupplied (with inventories), commodity prices are falling, and PMI and new orders are dropping too. Oil is falling; however, natural gas recovered from the total drawdown seen in July. Nevertheless, the macro indicators tell me that inflation will calm down, but the fed needs to continue doing its job and focus on inflation. I also believe that it can cause a mild recession and then we could see slight rate cuts in 2023. The next chart shows the leading indicator - G5 Credit Impulse and its impact on S&P 500 EPS as well as CPI YoY. Both are well lagged vs. their leading indicator, which leads by 4-5 quarters. This also supports our thesis, thus giving room for EPS decline as well as for CPI decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我相信消费者物价指数将会下降，美联储将抑制通胀。问题是每股收益也会下降。要迅速抑制通货膨胀，就必须造成经济放缓。然而，它正在发生，许多领先指标正在证实这一论点。企业供过于求（库存），大宗商品价格下跌，PMI和新订单也在下降。石油正在下跌；然而，天然气从7月份的总体下降中恢复过来。尽管如此，宏观指标告诉我，通胀将会平静下来，但美联储需要继续做好自己的工作，专注于通胀。我还认为，这可能会导致温和的衰退，然后我们可能会在2023年看到小幅降息。下图显示了领先指标——G5信贷冲动及其对标普500每股收益和CPI同比的影响。两者都远远落后于领先指标，领先指标领先4-5个季度。这也支持了我们的论点，从而为每股收益下降和CPI下降提供了空间。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f434d630603e9b6a62684bdcc200676\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>G5 Credit impluse as leading indicator(@MacroAlf)</p><p><blockquote>G5 Credit impluse作为领先指标(@MacroAlf)</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>Risks and Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险及总结</b></blockquote></p><p>Let's start with the risk to our thesis. The first risk can be that I have wrongly detected another bear market rally and where a bull market started. I do not say we will find the new bottom. Currently, I'm convinced that under current macro circumstances, followed by sale volumes and short-covering narrative, the market is overbought and should decline 5-15% from its current levels. The next risk to this thesis is that inflation will fall fast with a soft-landing. Although I see a little probability, it is still a kind of scenario. When inflation, mainly core inflation, drops significantly, it could cause the fed to stop the tightening cycle and, after 2-3 quarters, to ease conditions rapidly. And that's all without economic damage, with a strong labor market and slight economic growth. Currently, I'm not convinced that is the case.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从论文的风险开始。第一个风险可能是我错误地发现了另一次熊市反弹以及牛市开始的地方。我不是说我们会找到新的底部。目前，我相信，在当前的宏观环境下，以及随后的销量和空头回补叙述，市场已超买，应该会比当前水平下跌5-15%。这篇论文的下一个风险是通胀将随着软着陆而快速下降。虽然我看到了一点概率，但它仍然是一种场景。当通胀（主要是核心通胀）大幅下降时，可能会导致美联储停止紧缩周期，并在2-3个季度后迅速放松条件。这一切都没有造成经济损失，劳动力市场强劲，经济略有增长。目前，我不相信情况是这样。</blockquote></p><p>In my opinion, the short scenario has significantly bigger odds right now for plenty of reasons: Real yields and the SPY correlation have significantly deteriorated and deviated, which is unsustainable in my opinion. Additionally, we saw that due to strong short-covering rally - the 3rd largest in the last 10 years. Next reason is that there is a lack of short sellers right now, which could indicate a short-term market peak. The market rally could be exhausted because there are no short sellers. The next indicator is the still and tireless statements from FOMC's members, which are still very hawkish, and the best case is to DO NOT FIGHT THE FED. The most recent narrative remains focused on inflation print. Very volatile figures and the most current ones as motor fuel, transportation, and others are down, but it depends on prices (on the market). However, the fed wants to see the most lagging parts as a shelter, services, and demand side inflation to cool down. It will take some time, and I believe we will see that. But also, it will have a negative impact on EPS. Also, I can be wrong, but these are the key reasons why I firmly believe that the market is exhausted (upwards) and a short-term rally downwards could continue.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，目前空头情景的可能性要大得多，原因有很多：实际收益率和SPDR标普500指数ETF相关性显着恶化和偏离，我认为这是不可持续的。此外，我们看到，由于强劲的空头回补反弹——这是过去10年来的第三大反弹。下一个原因是目前缺乏卖空者，这可能预示着短期市场见顶。市场涨势可能会耗尽，因为没有卖空者。下一个指标是FOMC成员们仍然不厌其烦的声明，这些声明仍然非常鹰派，最好的情况是不要对抗美联储。最近的叙述仍然集中在通货膨胀打印。非常不稳定的数字和最新的数字，如汽车燃料、运输和其他下降，但这取决于（市场上的）价格。然而，美联储希望看到住房、服务业和需求侧通胀等最滞后的部分降温。这需要一些时间，我相信我们会看到这一点。但也会对每股收益产生负面影响。此外，我可能是错的，但这些是我坚信市场已经耗尽（向上）并且短期向下反弹可能会继续的关键原因。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal<blockquote>SPDR标普500指数ETF：是时候退出了，卖空量疲软预示着逆转</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal<blockquote>SPDR标普500指数ETF：是时候退出了，卖空量疲软预示着逆转</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-23 14:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>The base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging to stop the most lagged part of inflation.</li><li>The markets don't realize that fed members are in full hawkish mode. Although the market is certain about a soft-landing, the fed indicator suggests a recession.</li><li>Short-covering contributed to the latest bear market rally significantly. As there are very low short sales volumes right now, the reversion could be next.</li><li>SPY significantly deviated from real yields (strong inverse correlation) and this exemption won't last long.</li><li>The macroeconomic outlook could worsen with additional rate hikes, which is not supportive for EPS.</li></ul>In my most recent bond analysis, which focused on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), inflation, and monetary outlook, we predicted that the YoY and MoM inflation peaks would both occur in the months of July - September. I wagered that commodity prices would decline and that other leading indicators would also dramatically deteriorate. However the Fed responds to the most lagging inflation parts, the CPI/PCE/core CPI report from July is not initially bullish. Lower commodities prices had a significant impact on the MoM's "stabilization," but the most lagging drivers to the CPI - shelter and services are still quite high and are still increasing. The necessary items, which the Fed wants to stabilize, are not stabilizing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基数效应是通胀见顶的根本原因。阻止通胀最滞后的部分将是一项挑战。</li><li>市场没有意识到美联储成员完全处于鹰派模式。尽管市场肯定会软着陆，但美联储指标显示经济衰退。</li><li>空头回补对最近的熊市反弹做出了重大贡献。由于目前卖空量非常低，下一个可能会出现逆转。</li><li>SPDR标普500指数ETF明显偏离实际收益率（强负相关），这种豁免不会持续太久。</li><li>进一步加息可能会导致宏观经济前景恶化，这对每股收益不利。</li></ul>在我最近的债券分析中，重点关注iShares 20+年期国债ETF(TLT)、通胀和货币前景，我们预测同比和环比通胀峰值都将出现在7月至9月。我打赌大宗商品价格会下跌，其他领先指标也会大幅恶化。无论美联储如何应对最滞后的通胀部分，7月份的CPI/PCE/核心CPI报告最初并不乐观。大宗商品价格下跌对MoM的“企稳”产生了重大影响，但CPI最滞后的驱动因素——住房和服务业仍然相当高，并且仍在增加。美联储想要稳定的必要项目并没有稳定下来。</blockquote></p><p>On first glance, the market rallied due to strong data from inflation prints, but in our breakdown, the data has not been strong at all. SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) deviated from the long-term inverse correlation between real yields and SPY's price mainly due to a "strong fundamental week." However, I'm firmly convinced this was another bear market rally. Medium-term inflation expectations rose, which is not a good case for stocks. In summary, we can await more rate hikes to come, more than the market currently prices in.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，由于通胀数据强劲，市场上涨，但在我们的细分中，数据一点也不强劲。SPDR标普500信托ETF（NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF）偏离了实际收益率与SPDR标普500指数ETF价格之间的长期负相关关系，主要是由于“强劲的基本面周”。然而，我坚信这是另一次熊市反弹。中期通胀预期上升，这对股票来说不是一个好的案例。总而言之，我们可以等待更多加息，幅度超过市场目前的预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>Inflation breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀细分</b></blockquote></p><p>The CPI's YoY growth was still high at 8.5% and rose in July by zero percent. However, the core CPI rose "only" by 0.2%, which was lower than the consensus. Nevertheless, if you make an inflation breakdown, you will see the drivers. Motor fuel (oil & gas) has contributed very negatively to the overall CPI monthly change. This item is the most current in the lagged CPI. However, the most lagging components of the CPI are housing, food prices, medical care services, and other services, and it will take some time for these inputs to stabilize or decline.</p><p><blockquote>CPI同比增速仍高达8.5%，7月份涨幅为零。然而，核心CPI“仅”上涨0.2%，低于市场普遍预期。然而，如果你对通货膨胀进行细分，你就会看到驱动因素。汽车燃料（石油和天然气）对整体CPI月度变化的贡献非常负面。该项目是滞后CPI中最新的。然而，CPI最滞后的组成部分是住房、食品价格、医疗保健服务和其他服务，这些投入需要一段时间才能稳定或下降。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32fb983d571f92f960166b97b1eb1e09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>CPI monthly change(@MacroAlf)</p><p><blockquote>CPI月度变化(@MacroAlf)</blockquote></p><p>As I stated in my previous analysis on TLT, the consumer destruction will take place in 2-3 months. The issue is that supply-side inflation (mainly oil, gas, and other commodities) can be impacted only indirectly - mainly by lowered demand. That is what we see in the commodity market right now. Industrial commodities and the ones that have a great impact on overall CPI started to decline. But it does not reflect only demand destruction but also the quite strong economic slowdown (forward-looking). I still believe inflation will go down, but mainly due to the strong base effect caused by the measured style-YoY comparison. The much more important figure will be core inflation on a monthly basis.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前对TLT的分析中所说，消费者的毁灭将在2-3个月内发生。问题在于，供给侧通胀（主要是石油、天然气和其他大宗商品）只能受到间接影响——主要是需求下降。这就是我们目前在大宗商品市场上看到的情况。工业品和对整体CPI影响较大的商品开始回落。但这不仅反映了需求破坏，还反映了相当强劲的经济放缓（前瞻性）。我仍然相信通胀会下降，但主要是由于实测风格同比比较带来的强劲基数效应。更重要的数字将是月度核心通胀率。</blockquote></p><p>Still, if inflation were to be zero on a monthly basis till the end of the year, it would still be at 6.5%, and if it were to be longer, it would be at 3.3% in March. Still significantly above the fed's medium-term target. I am confident that inflation will fall, and that we will see a significant slowdown in 4Q2022, but this must be accompanied by a continued reduction in consumption and GDP growth forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，如果通胀率在年底前按月为零，仍将为6.5%，如果通胀率更长，3月份将为3.3%。仍明显高于美联储的中期目标。我有信心通货膨胀会下降，而且2022年第四季度我们会看到明显放缓，但是这必须伴随着消费和GDP增长预测的继续下调。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16abe6e1dd19cfbe7ada120183feb6d6\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Projecting CPI at Year-End(BLS, Cleveland Federal Reserve Nowcast)</p><p><blockquote>预测年底CPI（BLS、克利夫兰联储即时预测）</blockquote></p><p><b>Outlook on the monetary policy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>货币政策展望</b></blockquote></p><p>I'm strongly convinced that inflation will go down on a YoY basis. On the other hand, I'm a little bit less convinced by the MoM point of view. To support this scenario, the fed will need to be very hawkish to convince the market that it will do so. Despite still having a very inverted yield curve, the market started to price in fewer rate cuts than anticipated 2-3 weeks ago. And this is all on the back of lower-than-expected inflation figures from a week ago. The spread between Fed funds futures rates in Dec 2022 and Dec 2023 is reaching less than -0.2, thus implying market expectations of almost only one rate cut till Dec 2023.</p><p><blockquote>我坚信通货膨胀将同比下降。另一方面，我不太相信妈妈的观点。为了支持这种情况，美联储需要非常强硬地让市场相信它会这样做。尽管收益率曲线仍然非常倒挂，但市场开始消化的降息幅度低于2-3周前的预期。这一切都是基于一周前低于预期的通胀数据。2022年12月和2023年12月联邦基金期货利率之间的利差达到-0.2以下，这意味着市场预期到2023年12月几乎只会降息一次。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a4b790ae098a035c35b830ca03c865\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Spread between FFF 12/2022 and 12/2023(Author´s calculation via Tradingview)</p><p><blockquote>FFF 12/2022和12/2023之间的利差（作者通过Tradingview计算）</blockquote></p><p>Despite the fact that the market began slightly repeating the FOMC member's rhetoric, the stocks rallied significantly. It is because the market believed the narrative of "soft-landing" to be more probable than before inflation prints. However, the inflation fight is still not over. I consider this rally unsustainable and not supported by the macro fundamentals. After the inflation print, rates expectations measured by Fed funds futures rose quite significantly.</p><p><blockquote>尽管市场开始略微重复联邦公开市场委员会成员的言论，但股市仍大幅上涨。这是因为市场认为“软着陆”的说法比通胀数据公布前更有可能出现。然而，通胀斗争仍未结束。我认为这次反弹是不可持续的，也没有宏观基本面的支持。通胀数据公布后，以联邦基金期货衡量的利率预期大幅上升。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33f3f05a2f5ce92a0dc8992ced3b6a53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Rates expectations measured by FFF(Author´s calculations via Tradingview)</p><p><blockquote>FFF衡量的利率预期（作者通过Tradingview计算）</blockquote></p><p>Thus, retail investors are fairly misled by inflation print and soft-landing. This scenario does not support the thesis of being bullish at current levels. However, for me, the very strong narrative stands behind the real yields and SPY. There is a very strong negative correlation among the variables, which the market fully ignored until Friday.</p><p><blockquote>因此，散户投资者被通胀数据和软着陆误导了。这种情况并不支持在当前水平看涨的论点。然而，对我来说，真实收益率和SPDR标普500指数ETF背后有着非常强有力的叙述。变量之间存在非常强的负相关性，直到周五市场才完全忽略了这一点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fed22002670360778cb46af429c3e6fd\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Real Yields vs. S&P500(Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p><blockquote>实际收益率与标准普尔500指数（彭博社、摩根士丹利研究）</blockquote></p><p><b>The key driver of the latest rally was short-covering</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近一次反弹的关键驱动力是空头回补</b></blockquote></p><p>As many investors / traders followed the inflation print and saw a market rally, they massively closed their short positions or bets, which led to a significant rally from the bottom. That's the true reason why the market rallied in the previous weeks. And it only makes sense to me because macro fundamentals such as real yields and other leading indicators have all worsened, just hand in hand with a strong labor market. Despite the rise in real yields, the market rallied in recent weeks, their negative correlation deviated significantly from normal conditions, giving me no reason to be bullish from a macro perspective.</p><p><blockquote>由于许多投资者/交易者跟随通胀数据并看到市场反弹，他们大量平仓空头头寸或押注，这导致了从底部的大幅反弹。这才是前几周市场上涨的真正原因。这对我来说才有意义，因为实际收益率和其他领先指标等宏观基本面都在恶化，只是与强劲的劳动力市场齐头并进。尽管实际收益率上升，市场在最近几周反弹，但它们的负相关性明显偏离了正常情况，从宏观角度来看，我没有理由看涨。</blockquote></p><p>On the contrary, as I said, the rally was caused mainly by short covering (the closing of short position) and it was the 3rd most aggressive short-covering in the latest ten years.</p><p><blockquote>相反，正如我所说，反弹主要是由空头回补（空头头寸平仓）引起的，这是最近十年中第三次最激进的空头回补。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4500679330262cedb633a0fba418e7ad\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Short covering / Short selling(GS Prime Book via Investro)</p><p><blockquote>空头回补/卖空（GS Prime Book via Investro）</blockquote></p><p>And also a great chart from @MacroCharts, which measures the sum of (QQQ) deltas, indicated that this massive rally was caused by a full switch of position. As there are monitored deltas for QQQ, I believe it will be similar for the S&P 500 or SPY, because major stocks from QQQ are also integrated with significant weights in SPY. From the extremely short to the extremely long ones. For me, it is absolutely unsustainable to remain at such levels, and the rising probability of further downturn, combined with macro fundamentals, gives me quite strong confidence.</p><p><blockquote>@MacroCharts的一张很棒的图表测量了(QQQ)增量之和，表明这次大规模反弹是由头寸完全转换引起的。由于QQQ有受监控的增量，我相信标普500或SPDR标普500指数ETF的情况也会类似，因为QQQ的主要股票在SPDR标普500指数ETF也具有重要权重。从极短到极长。对我来说，维持在这样的水平是绝对不可持续的，而进一步下行的概率上升，结合宏观基本面，给了我相当强的信心。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/984923367a1ab56eb4804dde1f6a5a07\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Sum of QQQ Deltas(Charlie Mcelligott / Nomura via @MacroCharts)</p><p><blockquote>QQQ增量之和（Charlie Mcelligott/野村证券，来自@MacroCharts）</blockquote></p><p>Another very important measure, which I highly recommend, is to follow short sale volumes for SPY/QQQ and others. The chart below just implies there is a lack of shorts or very low activity in short selling, which is a great contrarian indicator. The 10-day moving average of short sale volume, measured by FINRA, indicates there is a lack of short sale volume, indicates the market is probably exhausted. It also confirms the thesis of short-covering rally in the previous weeks as well. Just look at the significant numbers of short selling in mid June, in hand with the market bottom. There should be no surprises about the following market squeeze or strong short-covering activity. Currently, I see a strong reversal situation, thus giving room for another leg down in SPY. However, I also could be wrong, but combined with the real yields narrative, the worsening economic situation, and the strong contrarian indicator of short sale volume, I am firmly convinced this was another bear market rally.</p><p><blockquote>我强烈推荐的另一个非常重要的措施是跟踪SPDR标普500指数ETF/QQQ和其他公司的卖空量。下图只是暗示缺乏空头或卖空活动非常低，这是一个很好的反向指标。FINRA测量的卖空量10天移动平均线表明卖空量不足，表明市场可能已经疲惫不堪。这也证实了前几周空头回补反弹的论点。只要看看六月中旬市场触底时大量卖空就知道了。接下来的市场挤压或强劲的空头回补活动应该不会令人意外。目前，我看到了强劲的逆转情况，从而为SPDR标普500指数ETF的另一次下跌提供了空间。然而，我也可能是错的，但结合实际收益率叙述、不断恶化的经济形势以及卖空量的强劲逆势指标，我坚信这是另一次熊市反弹。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Fed believes a soft landing is less likely than the market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储认为软着陆的可能性低于市场</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The reason why I believe such a narrative is caused by FOMC members' statements as well as by the data-driven approach. First of all, there are leading indicators that are screaming to us that inflation as well as economic growth will slow down. However, as previously stated, the YoY will slow, and the MoM will most likely stabilize. However, even if there is a 0% MoM change until the end of the year, inflation will still be significantly above the medium term horizon and above the fed's key target. With so strong numbers from the labor market, the fed can be calm to focus really on inflation and to tame it. The sacrifice would be economic growth. This is the reason why I believe rate hikes will continue until the fed sees a portion of lagging core CPI MoM moving around -0.2% to 0.1% in the medium term.</p><p><blockquote>我之所以相信这样的叙述，是由FOMC成员的声明以及数据驱动的方法造成的。首先，有领先指标向我们尖叫，通胀和经济增长都将放缓。然而，如前所述，同比将会放缓，而环比很可能会稳定下来。然而，即使年底前环比变化为0%，通胀仍将明显高于中期水平，也高于美联储的关键目标。由于劳动力市场数据如此强劲，美联储可以冷静地真正关注通胀并抑制通胀。牺牲的将是经济增长。这就是为什么我认为加息将持续下去，直到美联储看到部分滞后的核心CPI环比在中期内徘徊在-0.2%至0.1%左右。</blockquote></p><p>Now, let's summarize some of the latest statements from FOMC members.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们总结一下FOMC成员的一些最新表态。</blockquote></p><p>Fed's Bullard, according to Reuters:</p><p><blockquote>据路透社报道，美联储布拉德：</blockquote></p><p><i>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who was among the central bank's earliest advocates last year of a more muscular response to fast-building price pressures, said that given the strength of the economy he is currently leaning toward supporting a third straight 75-basis-point interest rate hike in September.</i>Also, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve,stated earlier on Thursday that raising rates by 50 or 75 basis points at the fed's upcoming policy meeting on September 20-21 would be a "reasonable" way to raise short-term borrowing costs to slightly above 3% by the end of this year and put them on a path to a little bit higher in 2023.</p><p><blockquote><i>圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德(James Bullard)是美联储去年最早主张对快速上涨的物价压力做出更有力反应的人之一，他表示，鉴于经济实力，他目前倾向于支持连续第三次75个基点的加息。</i>此外，旧金山联储主席Mary Daly周四早些时候表示，在美联储即将于9月20日至21日举行的政策会议上加息50或75个基点将是提高短期借贷成本的“合理”方式，到今年年底将略高于3%，并在2023年走上略高的道路。</blockquote></p><p>Also a kindly hawkish note from the Fed's Kashkari:</p><p><blockquote>美联储卡什卡利也发表了善意的鹰派言论：</blockquote></p><p><i>So the question right now is, can we bring inflation down without triggering a recession? And my answer to that question is: I don’t know. Fed has more work to do in raising interest rates to bring inflation down.</i>Despite the better than expected inflation print, the fight is not over and there must be a clear indication of tightening conditions that will continue to bring inflation down. Until then, the market still hopes for a soft-landing as in 2019, but this is really different story. I'm firmly convinced it will bring a bigger economic slowdown than the current one, but I don't know if it will be a big recession. Probably not. But it will be harder than soft-landing. Kashkari is one of the first FOMC members to admit that they are unsure whether it will cause the recession or not. They just can't tell you, "for sure we will cause a recession." However, in the previous months, when the yield curve started to be inverted, the fed screamed that it was not an appropriate indicator of recession. The opposite is the truth.</p><p><blockquote><i>所以现在的问题是，我们能否在不引发衰退的情况下降低通胀？我对这个问题的回答是：我不知道。美联储在加息以降低通胀方面还有更多工作要做。</i>尽管通胀数据好于预期，但斗争尚未结束，必须有明确的迹象表明紧缩条件将继续压低通胀。在此之前，市场仍然希望像2019年那样软着陆，但这确实是另一回事。我坚信它会带来比目前更大的经济放缓，但我不知道这是否会是一场大衰退。应该不会吧。但这将比软着陆更难。卡什卡利是首批承认他们不确定这是否会导致经济衰退的FOMC成员之一。他们只是不能告诉你，“我们肯定会导致衰退。”然而，在前几个月，当收益率曲线开始倒挂时，美联储尖叫称这不是一个合适的衰退指标。事实恰恰相反。</blockquote></p><p>However, the fed released its own indicator of forecasting recession, slightly different than the classic yield curve, which had not been inverted before. It is now fully inverted, which, according to previous fed papers, should clearly indicate a recession going forward. A great chart from@MacroAlfcalculated the development of this indicator, and as it was almost one month ago, it started to be inverted, thus confirming that the fed knows and is aware of the ongoing recession. Regardless of what they say. It was the only opinion as the yield curve started to be inverted that it was better to monitor the "near-term spread," calculated as 18m forward 3m yields minus 3m yields, as it is a much more precise predictor of the upcoming recession.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美联储发布了自己预测衰退的指标，与经典的收益率曲线略有不同，后者此前并未出现倒挂。现在它已经完全倒挂，根据美联储之前的文件，这应该清楚地表明未来将出现衰退。@MacroAlf的一张很棒的图表计算了该指标的发展，就像大约一个月前一样，它开始倒挂，从而证实了美联储知道并意识到正在进行的衰退。不管他们怎么说。当收益率曲线开始倒挂时，唯一的观点是最好监控“近期利差”，计算为1800万远期300万收益率减去300万收益率，因为它是对即将到来的衰退的更精确的预测。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aced83130fc7620517eccea36b9a2d28\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Fed´s preferred yield curve indicator(@MacroAlf)</p><p><blockquote>美联储首选收益率曲线指标(@MacroAlf)</blockquote></p><p><b>Earnings are lagged, CPI too</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利滞后，CPI也滞后</b></blockquote></p><p>However, I'm convinced that CPI will go down and the fed will tame inflation. The issue is that there will be an EPS drop as well. To tame inflation rapidly, it is necessary to cause an economic slowdown. However, it is happening right now, and many leading indicators are confirming this thesis. Companies are oversupplied (with inventories), commodity prices are falling, and PMI and new orders are dropping too. Oil is falling; however, natural gas recovered from the total drawdown seen in July. Nevertheless, the macro indicators tell me that inflation will calm down, but the fed needs to continue doing its job and focus on inflation. I also believe that it can cause a mild recession and then we could see slight rate cuts in 2023. The next chart shows the leading indicator - G5 Credit Impulse and its impact on S&P 500 EPS as well as CPI YoY. Both are well lagged vs. their leading indicator, which leads by 4-5 quarters. This also supports our thesis, thus giving room for EPS decline as well as for CPI decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我相信消费者物价指数将会下降，美联储将抑制通胀。问题是每股收益也会下降。要迅速抑制通货膨胀，就必须造成经济放缓。然而，它正在发生，许多领先指标正在证实这一论点。企业供过于求（库存），大宗商品价格下跌，PMI和新订单也在下降。石油正在下跌；然而，天然气从7月份的总体下降中恢复过来。尽管如此，宏观指标告诉我，通胀将会平静下来，但美联储需要继续做好自己的工作，专注于通胀。我还认为，这可能会导致温和的衰退，然后我们可能会在2023年看到小幅降息。下图显示了领先指标——G5信贷冲动及其对标普500每股收益和CPI同比的影响。两者都远远落后于领先指标，领先指标领先4-5个季度。这也支持了我们的论点，从而为每股收益下降和CPI下降提供了空间。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f434d630603e9b6a62684bdcc200676\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>G5 Credit impluse as leading indicator(@MacroAlf)</p><p><blockquote>G5 Credit impluse作为领先指标(@MacroAlf)</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>Risks and Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险及总结</b></blockquote></p><p>Let's start with the risk to our thesis. The first risk can be that I have wrongly detected another bear market rally and where a bull market started. I do not say we will find the new bottom. Currently, I'm convinced that under current macro circumstances, followed by sale volumes and short-covering narrative, the market is overbought and should decline 5-15% from its current levels. The next risk to this thesis is that inflation will fall fast with a soft-landing. Although I see a little probability, it is still a kind of scenario. When inflation, mainly core inflation, drops significantly, it could cause the fed to stop the tightening cycle and, after 2-3 quarters, to ease conditions rapidly. And that's all without economic damage, with a strong labor market and slight economic growth. Currently, I'm not convinced that is the case.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从论文的风险开始。第一个风险可能是我错误地发现了另一次熊市反弹以及牛市开始的地方。我不是说我们会找到新的底部。目前，我相信，在当前的宏观环境下，以及随后的销量和空头回补叙述，市场已超买，应该会比当前水平下跌5-15%。这篇论文的下一个风险是通胀将随着软着陆而快速下降。虽然我看到了一点概率，但它仍然是一种场景。当通胀（主要是核心通胀）大幅下降时，可能会导致美联储停止紧缩周期，并在2-3个季度后迅速放松条件。这一切都没有造成经济损失，劳动力市场强劲，经济略有增长。目前，我不相信情况是这样。</blockquote></p><p>In my opinion, the short scenario has significantly bigger odds right now for plenty of reasons: Real yields and the SPY correlation have significantly deteriorated and deviated, which is unsustainable in my opinion. Additionally, we saw that due to strong short-covering rally - the 3rd largest in the last 10 years. Next reason is that there is a lack of short sellers right now, which could indicate a short-term market peak. The market rally could be exhausted because there are no short sellers. The next indicator is the still and tireless statements from FOMC's members, which are still very hawkish, and the best case is to DO NOT FIGHT THE FED. The most recent narrative remains focused on inflation print. Very volatile figures and the most current ones as motor fuel, transportation, and others are down, but it depends on prices (on the market). However, the fed wants to see the most lagging parts as a shelter, services, and demand side inflation to cool down. It will take some time, and I believe we will see that. But also, it will have a negative impact on EPS. Also, I can be wrong, but these are the key reasons why I firmly believe that the market is exhausted (upwards) and a short-term rally downwards could continue.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，目前空头情景的可能性要大得多，原因有很多：实际收益率和SPDR标普500指数ETF相关性显着恶化和偏离，我认为这是不可持续的。此外，我们看到，由于强劲的空头回补反弹——这是过去10年来的第三大反弹。下一个原因是目前缺乏卖空者，这可能预示着短期市场见顶。市场涨势可能会耗尽，因为没有卖空者。下一个指标是FOMC成员们仍然不厌其烦的声明，这些声明仍然非常鹰派，最好的情况是不要对抗美联储。最近的叙述仍然集中在通货膨胀打印。非常不稳定的数字和最新的数字，如汽车燃料、运输和其他下降，但这取决于（市场上的）价格。然而，美联储希望看到住房、服务业和需求侧通胀等最滞后的部分降温。这需要一些时间，我相信我们会看到这一点。但也会对每股收益产生负面影响。此外，我可能是错的，但这些是我坚信市场已经耗尽（向上）并且短期向下反弹可能会继续的关键原因。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536168-spy-time-to-get-out-weak-short-sale-volumes-indicate-reversal\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536168-spy-time-to-get-out-weak-short-sale-volumes-indicate-reversal","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113960584","content_text":"SummaryThe base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging to stop the most lagged part of inflation.The markets don't realize that fed members are in full hawkish mode. Although the market is certain about a soft-landing, the fed indicator suggests a recession.Short-covering contributed to the latest bear market rally significantly. As there are very low short sales volumes right now, the reversion could be next.SPY significantly deviated from real yields (strong inverse correlation) and this exemption won't last long.The macroeconomic outlook could worsen with additional rate hikes, which is not supportive for EPS.In my most recent bond analysis, which focused on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), inflation, and monetary outlook, we predicted that the YoY and MoM inflation peaks would both occur in the months of July - September. I wagered that commodity prices would decline and that other leading indicators would also dramatically deteriorate. However the Fed responds to the most lagging inflation parts, the CPI/PCE/core CPI report from July is not initially bullish. Lower commodities prices had a significant impact on the MoM's \"stabilization,\" but the most lagging drivers to the CPI - shelter and services are still quite high and are still increasing. The necessary items, which the Fed wants to stabilize, are not stabilizing.On first glance, the market rallied due to strong data from inflation prints, but in our breakdown, the data has not been strong at all. SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) deviated from the long-term inverse correlation between real yields and SPY's price mainly due to a \"strong fundamental week.\" However, I'm firmly convinced this was another bear market rally. Medium-term inflation expectations rose, which is not a good case for stocks. In summary, we can await more rate hikes to come, more than the market currently prices in.Inflation breakdownThe CPI's YoY growth was still high at 8.5% and rose in July by zero percent. However, the core CPI rose \"only\" by 0.2%, which was lower than the consensus. Nevertheless, if you make an inflation breakdown, you will see the drivers. Motor fuel (oil & gas) has contributed very negatively to the overall CPI monthly change. This item is the most current in the lagged CPI. However, the most lagging components of the CPI are housing, food prices, medical care services, and other services, and it will take some time for these inputs to stabilize or decline.CPI monthly change(@MacroAlf)As I stated in my previous analysis on TLT, the consumer destruction will take place in 2-3 months. The issue is that supply-side inflation (mainly oil, gas, and other commodities) can be impacted only indirectly - mainly by lowered demand. That is what we see in the commodity market right now. Industrial commodities and the ones that have a great impact on overall CPI started to decline. But it does not reflect only demand destruction but also the quite strong economic slowdown (forward-looking). I still believe inflation will go down, but mainly due to the strong base effect caused by the measured style-YoY comparison. The much more important figure will be core inflation on a monthly basis.Still, if inflation were to be zero on a monthly basis till the end of the year, it would still be at 6.5%, and if it were to be longer, it would be at 3.3% in March. Still significantly above the fed's medium-term target. I am confident that inflation will fall, and that we will see a significant slowdown in 4Q2022, but this must be accompanied by a continued reduction in consumption and GDP growth forecasts.Projecting CPI at Year-End(BLS, Cleveland Federal Reserve Nowcast)Outlook on the monetary policyI'm strongly convinced that inflation will go down on a YoY basis. On the other hand, I'm a little bit less convinced by the MoM point of view. To support this scenario, the fed will need to be very hawkish to convince the market that it will do so. Despite still having a very inverted yield curve, the market started to price in fewer rate cuts than anticipated 2-3 weeks ago. And this is all on the back of lower-than-expected inflation figures from a week ago. The spread between Fed funds futures rates in Dec 2022 and Dec 2023 is reaching less than -0.2, thus implying market expectations of almost only one rate cut till Dec 2023.Spread between FFF 12/2022 and 12/2023(Author´s calculation via Tradingview)Despite the fact that the market began slightly repeating the FOMC member's rhetoric, the stocks rallied significantly. It is because the market believed the narrative of \"soft-landing\" to be more probable than before inflation prints. However, the inflation fight is still not over. I consider this rally unsustainable and not supported by the macro fundamentals. After the inflation print, rates expectations measured by Fed funds futures rose quite significantly.Rates expectations measured by FFF(Author´s calculations via Tradingview)Thus, retail investors are fairly misled by inflation print and soft-landing. This scenario does not support the thesis of being bullish at current levels. However, for me, the very strong narrative stands behind the real yields and SPY. There is a very strong negative correlation among the variables, which the market fully ignored until Friday.Real Yields vs. S&P500(Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research)The key driver of the latest rally was short-coveringAs many investors / traders followed the inflation print and saw a market rally, they massively closed their short positions or bets, which led to a significant rally from the bottom. That's the true reason why the market rallied in the previous weeks. And it only makes sense to me because macro fundamentals such as real yields and other leading indicators have all worsened, just hand in hand with a strong labor market. Despite the rise in real yields, the market rallied in recent weeks, their negative correlation deviated significantly from normal conditions, giving me no reason to be bullish from a macro perspective.On the contrary, as I said, the rally was caused mainly by short covering (the closing of short position) and it was the 3rd most aggressive short-covering in the latest ten years.Short covering / Short selling(GS Prime Book via Investro)And also a great chart from @MacroCharts, which measures the sum of (QQQ) deltas, indicated that this massive rally was caused by a full switch of position. As there are monitored deltas for QQQ, I believe it will be similar for the S&P 500 or SPY, because major stocks from QQQ are also integrated with significant weights in SPY. From the extremely short to the extremely long ones. For me, it is absolutely unsustainable to remain at such levels, and the rising probability of further downturn, combined with macro fundamentals, gives me quite strong confidence.Sum of QQQ Deltas(Charlie Mcelligott / Nomura via @MacroCharts)Another very important measure, which I highly recommend, is to follow short sale volumes for SPY/QQQ and others. The chart below just implies there is a lack of shorts or very low activity in short selling, which is a great contrarian indicator. The 10-day moving average of short sale volume, measured by FINRA, indicates there is a lack of short sale volume, indicates the market is probably exhausted. It also confirms the thesis of short-covering rally in the previous weeks as well. Just look at the significant numbers of short selling in mid June, in hand with the market bottom. There should be no surprises about the following market squeeze or strong short-covering activity. Currently, I see a strong reversal situation, thus giving room for another leg down in SPY. However, I also could be wrong, but combined with the real yields narrative, the worsening economic situation, and the strong contrarian indicator of short sale volume, I am firmly convinced this was another bear market rally.The Fed believes a soft landing is less likely than the marketThe reason why I believe such a narrative is caused by FOMC members' statements as well as by the data-driven approach. First of all, there are leading indicators that are screaming to us that inflation as well as economic growth will slow down. However, as previously stated, the YoY will slow, and the MoM will most likely stabilize. However, even if there is a 0% MoM change until the end of the year, inflation will still be significantly above the medium term horizon and above the fed's key target. With so strong numbers from the labor market, the fed can be calm to focus really on inflation and to tame it. The sacrifice would be economic growth. This is the reason why I believe rate hikes will continue until the fed sees a portion of lagging core CPI MoM moving around -0.2% to 0.1% in the medium term.Now, let's summarize some of the latest statements from FOMC members.Fed's Bullard, according to Reuters:St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who was among the central bank's earliest advocates last year of a more muscular response to fast-building price pressures, said that given the strength of the economy he is currently leaning toward supporting a third straight 75-basis-point interest rate hike in September.Also, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve,stated earlier on Thursday that raising rates by 50 or 75 basis points at the fed's upcoming policy meeting on September 20-21 would be a \"reasonable\" way to raise short-term borrowing costs to slightly above 3% by the end of this year and put them on a path to a little bit higher in 2023.Also a kindly hawkish note from the Fed's Kashkari:So the question right now is, can we bring inflation down without triggering a recession? And my answer to that question is: I don’t know. Fed has more work to do in raising interest rates to bring inflation down.Despite the better than expected inflation print, the fight is not over and there must be a clear indication of tightening conditions that will continue to bring inflation down. Until then, the market still hopes for a soft-landing as in 2019, but this is really different story. I'm firmly convinced it will bring a bigger economic slowdown than the current one, but I don't know if it will be a big recession. Probably not. But it will be harder than soft-landing. Kashkari is one of the first FOMC members to admit that they are unsure whether it will cause the recession or not. They just can't tell you, \"for sure we will cause a recession.\" However, in the previous months, when the yield curve started to be inverted, the fed screamed that it was not an appropriate indicator of recession. The opposite is the truth.However, the fed released its own indicator of forecasting recession, slightly different than the classic yield curve, which had not been inverted before. It is now fully inverted, which, according to previous fed papers, should clearly indicate a recession going forward. A great chart from@MacroAlfcalculated the development of this indicator, and as it was almost one month ago, it started to be inverted, thus confirming that the fed knows and is aware of the ongoing recession. Regardless of what they say. It was the only opinion as the yield curve started to be inverted that it was better to monitor the \"near-term spread,\" calculated as 18m forward 3m yields minus 3m yields, as it is a much more precise predictor of the upcoming recession.Fed´s preferred yield curve indicator(@MacroAlf)Earnings are lagged, CPI tooHowever, I'm convinced that CPI will go down and the fed will tame inflation. The issue is that there will be an EPS drop as well. To tame inflation rapidly, it is necessary to cause an economic slowdown. However, it is happening right now, and many leading indicators are confirming this thesis. Companies are oversupplied (with inventories), commodity prices are falling, and PMI and new orders are dropping too. Oil is falling; however, natural gas recovered from the total drawdown seen in July. Nevertheless, the macro indicators tell me that inflation will calm down, but the fed needs to continue doing its job and focus on inflation. I also believe that it can cause a mild recession and then we could see slight rate cuts in 2023. The next chart shows the leading indicator - G5 Credit Impulse and its impact on S&P 500 EPS as well as CPI YoY. Both are well lagged vs. their leading indicator, which leads by 4-5 quarters. This also supports our thesis, thus giving room for EPS decline as well as for CPI decline.G5 Credit impluse as leading indicator(@MacroAlf)Risks and SummaryLet's start with the risk to our thesis. The first risk can be that I have wrongly detected another bear market rally and where a bull market started. I do not say we will find the new bottom. Currently, I'm convinced that under current macro circumstances, followed by sale volumes and short-covering narrative, the market is overbought and should decline 5-15% from its current levels. The next risk to this thesis is that inflation will fall fast with a soft-landing. Although I see a little probability, it is still a kind of scenario. When inflation, mainly core inflation, drops significantly, it could cause the fed to stop the tightening cycle and, after 2-3 quarters, to ease conditions rapidly. And that's all without economic damage, with a strong labor market and slight economic growth. Currently, I'm not convinced that is the case.In my opinion, the short scenario has significantly bigger odds right now for plenty of reasons: Real yields and the SPY correlation have significantly deteriorated and deviated, which is unsustainable in my opinion. Additionally, we saw that due to strong short-covering rally - the 3rd largest in the last 10 years. Next reason is that there is a lack of short sellers right now, which could indicate a short-term market peak. The market rally could be exhausted because there are no short sellers. The next indicator is the still and tireless statements from FOMC's members, which are still very hawkish, and the best case is to DO NOT FIGHT THE FED. The most recent narrative remains focused on inflation print. Very volatile figures and the most current ones as motor fuel, transportation, and others are down, but it depends on prices (on the market). However, the fed wants to see the most lagging parts as a shelter, services, and demand side inflation to cool down. It will take some time, and I believe we will see that. But also, it will have a negative impact on EPS. Also, I can be wrong, but these are the key reasons why I firmly believe that the market is exhausted (upwards) and a short-term rally downwards could continue.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685105724,"gmtCreate":1659480599870,"gmtModify":1659485803098,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570187411453325","authorIdStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Something to rejoice about in this turbulent market condition =)","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Something to rejoice about in this turbulent market condition =)","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Something to rejoice about in this turbulent market condition =)","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfba5f333584f2ac4b51573a0ba30bef","width":"1640","height":"1888"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685105724","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685105028,"gmtCreate":1659479638069,"gmtModify":1659479641458,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570187411453325","authorIdStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing. Hopefully the author is wrong about Tesla.","listText":"Thanks for sharing. Hopefully the author is wrong about Tesla.","text":"Thanks for sharing. Hopefully the author is wrong about Tesla.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685105028","repostId":"2256654277","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":682501479,"gmtCreate":1659055223795,"gmtModify":1659055227283,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570187411453325","authorIdStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I am so glad !!","listText":"I am so glad !!","text":"I am so glad !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/682501479","repostId":"2255308108","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2255308108","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1659040383,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2255308108?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-29 04:33","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Apple CFO Says Supply Chain Issues In June Quarter Cost Under $4B In Sales<blockquote>苹果首席财务官表示，6月份季度的供应链问题导致销售额低于40亿美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2255308108","media":"Benzinga","summary":"-Reuters","content":"<p><html><body>-Reuters</p><p><blockquote><html><body>——路透社</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple CFO Says Supply Chain Issues In June Quarter Cost Under $4B In Sales<blockquote>苹果首席财务官表示，6月份季度的供应链问题导致销售额低于40亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-29 04:33</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>-Reuters</p><p><blockquote><html><body>——路透社</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/22/07/28256587/apple-cfo-says-supply-chain-issues-in-june-quarter-cost-under-4b-in-sales","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2255308108","content_text":"-Reuters","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":682501264,"gmtCreate":1659055169763,"gmtModify":1659055175928,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570187411453325","authorIdStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So happy to hear the passing of the bill for the future of America :)","listText":"So happy to hear the passing of the bill for the future of America :)","text":"So happy to hear the passing of the bill for the future of America :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/682501264","repostId":"2255058293","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}