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- Alan_GohAlan_Goh
  ·2022-09-09
  RIP
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Alan_GohAlan_Goh
  ·2022-09-07
  $Apple(AAPL)$Holding on. All the way AAPL!
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- Alan_GohAlan_Goh
  ·2022-09-07
  Thanks for circulating this great article here :)
  Alibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy
  SummaryOver the last 5 days, the market has reached a consensus of sorts on Alibaba's valuation; its
  Alibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy
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- Alan_GohAlan_Goh
  ·2022-08-26
  Stock split means more retail investors can have a stake in the company and not the company is issuing more shares.
  1,382 评论
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- Alan_GohAlan_Goh
  ·2022-08-23
  Tesla still the EV market leader!
  TSLA Stock Falls as Tesla Hikes FSD Prices
  Elon Musk has announced that Tesla(TSLA) is preparing for an important price hike.The company's full
  TSLA Stock Falls as Tesla Hikes FSD Prices
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- Alan_GohAlan_Goh
  ·2022-08-23
  Thanks very much for this detail write out!
  SPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal
  SummaryThe base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging t
  SPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal
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- Alan_GohAlan_Goh
  ·2022-08-03
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Something to rejoice about in this turbulent market condition =)
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- Alan_GohAlan_Goh
  ·2022-08-03
  Thanks for sharing. Hopefully the author is wrong about Tesla.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Alan_GohAlan_Goh
  ·2022-07-29
  I am so glad !!
  Apple CFO Says Supply Chain Issues In June Quarter Cost Under $4B In Sales
  -Reuters
  Apple CFO Says Supply Chain Issues In June Quarter Cost Under $4B In Sales
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- Alan_GohAlan_Goh
  ·2022-07-29
  So happy to hear the passing of the bill for the future of America :)
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Holding on. All the way AAPL!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Holding on. All the way AAPL!","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$Holding on. All the way AAPL!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1f50f792f15fce0a591668de3d9691e","width":"2360","height":"1312"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669594721","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":669594473,"gmtCreate":1662511729392,"gmtModify":1662511736108,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570187411453325","idStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for circulating&nbsp;this great article here :)","listText":"Thanks for circulating&nbsp;this great article here :)","text":"Thanks for circulating this great article here :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669594473","repostId":"1199050881","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199050881","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662478265,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199050881?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-06 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199050881","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryOver the last 5 days, the market has reached a consensus of sorts on Alibaba's valuation; its","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Over the last 5 days, the market has reached a consensus of sorts on Alibaba&#39;s valuation; its value is somewhere between $90.78 and $100.88/share.</li><li>Alibaba has repeatedly traded at high volumes near both value extremes in the last 5 days, sometimes on the same day.</li><li>Alibaba&#39;s volatility makes it a great stock for short-term day or swing trading.</li><li>Money in losing positions is often called &#34;dead money&#34;. However short-term trading around a losing position can, if executed successfully, lower a position&#39;s cost basis and generate return.</li></ul><p><b>The Young Bull and the Older, Wiser Bull</b></p><p>Recently, I observed an old bull and a young bull grazing in a green pasture on a beautiful, sunny day. The young bull gazed towards a nearby watering hole and noticed a herd of cows had gathered there. The youngster said, &#34;I&#39;m going to run over and buy one of those cows a drink&#34;. The older, wiser bull replied, &#34;I&#39;m going to walk over and buy them all a drink&#34;.</p><p><b>Alibaba: A Proverbial Herd of Cows</b></p><p>Over the last year, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) has traded between a high of $182.09 and a low of $73.28. BABA has generally trended down with exceptional volatility and closed on September 2nd at $91.80.</p><p><i>BABA: 1-Year Price Range</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca7be63615cd2146c68f392a0cef02e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Many portfolios, no doubt, include &#34;dead money&#34; in losing BABA positions with negative unrealized and realized gains. However, each time a share changed hands at every price level, there was a winner and a loser on the trade. Clever or lucky investors sold at a short-term peak to a willing buyer; the opposite case is also true. Over most time ranges, it may be possible to get on the winning side of most trades and generate return even on dead money.</p><p><b>Short-Term Trading Strategy: Maintain Share Count</b></p><p>Over the last five days, BABA&#39;s price range has been $90.78 to $100.88/share. Over the same 5 days, BABA has traded at several shorter-term highs and lows. Based on the recent past and the last year, one could reasonably expect BABA to continue bouncing in a similar way. With the goal of maintaining share count while realizing short-term gains, I recommend a short-term buying and selling strategy based on a relatively simple analysis.</p><p><i>BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy &amp; Sell Ranges - Maintain Share Count</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0037de1ff3e4a30d8de1609790a0ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>BABA&#39;s 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. The green and red shaded areas represent short-term buy and sell zones by the author. The sell and buy ranges begin at 0.75% above and below the median price respectively. The 0.75% spread on each side of the median price range is somewhat arbitrary. It could be narrower or broader depending on several factors including one&#39;s risk tolerance, how closely one will follow BABA intraday, and one&#39;s planned trading frequency &amp; volume. Based on my analysis of recent trading, I recommend buying BABA beginning at $95.11 and selling beginning at $96.55 in order to realize short-term gains while maintaining share count.</p><p><b><i>Buy &amp; Sell BABA While Maintaining Share Count</i></b></p><p>This chart was generated with a downloadable Excel spreadsheet by the author.</p><p><i>Maintain Share Count</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033f311932792e534be4a59481a36ad3\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"734\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author</p><p>Adjustable inputs are in the shaded cells. Buy and sell limit orders are tabulated with a goal of maintaining share count; buy &amp; sell count and spread are equal. I recommend investors who are comfortable with short-term trading place descending buy and ascending sell limit orders on both sides of the short-term median price. Less aggressive investors can place a single limit order or a single buy and sell pair.</p><p>However, based on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, some investors may wish to accumulate BABA.</p><p><b>BABA: A Brief Review of Valuation and Momentum</b></p><p><i>BABA: Historical EV/EBITDA Ratio</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65d572de993b59310b63a1e15952975e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>BABA EV/EBITDA is plotted over 3 years and is currently near its lowest point over that time range. The ratio reached a peak in late 2020 (arguably based on positive sentiment and hopeful analysis) and has since fallen on delisting concerns and negative sentiment. I expect delisting concerns to be resolved and sentiment to improve. Based on BABA&#39;s current EV/EBITDA ratio, now is a good time to accumulate shares.</p><p><i>BABA: Momentum</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08c5bd8470c70c6d1153b9f3e6fec200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>BABA share price is currently below its 200, 100, 50, and even 10-day simple moving averages. A simple momentum strategy is based on reversion to mean; over most time ranges, share price will oscillate around its mean value. If BABA oscillates towards any of its moving averages, share price will increase.</p><p><b>Short-Term Trading Strategy: Accumulate Shares</b></p><p>Based on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, I recommend investors accumulate BABA. The following graph is nearly identical to the graph discussed above; a single parameter has been adjusted.</p><p><i>BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy &amp; Sell Ranges: Accumulate Shares</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0134a770b2e34c173529887827a35fcc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Again, BABA&#39;s 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. However, the green and red shaded areas representing short-term buy and sell zones are asymmetric with relation to the median price. The sell range begins at 0.75% above the median price while the buy range begins 0.5% below the median price. Short-term trading with these ranges would be more likely to result in accumulation of shares than the &#34;<i>Maintain Share Count&#34;</i>strategy discussed previously.</p><p><b><i>Buy &amp; Sell BABA While Accumulating Shares</i></b></p><p>This chart is very similar to that discussed with relation to the &#34;<i>Maintain Share Count&#34;</i> strategy and was generated with the same downloadable Excel spreadsheet.</p><p><i>Accumulate Shares</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96237d2d24d5b86f0fd446b9f1ee7ac2\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author</p><p>The only difference is the buy spread has been reduced to 0.50% from 0.75%. The recommended sell orders are identical while the recommended buy orders are slightly more aggressive. In essence, the recommended sell and buy orders would be more likely to result in accumulating shares than those listed in &#34;<i>Buy &amp; Sell BABA While Maintaining Share Count&#34;</i>chart.</p><p><b>Short-Term Trading and Wash Sales</b></p><p>Any buyer or seller of any security including BABA should be aware of IRSrules on wash sales and seek the advice of a licensed accountant or other licensed professional as necessary. A good Seeking Alpha article on wash sale rules is also available. Generally, IRS wash rules apply to the sale and purchase of an identical stock within a 30-day period and are most often applied to tax loss sales.</p><p>Another scenario can be beneficial to investors. If a losing position or fraction thereof is sold and then repurchased at a lesser cost, a wash sale occurs. Most brokerages will adjust the cost basis of the position. It is easiest to discuss with an example and I happen to hold a losing BABA position.</p><p>My BABA cost basis is approximately $115. I swing trade losing positions aggressively and have shared my strategy in comments on BABA articles on two occasions. On August 26th, I sold my entire position in 10 blocks with ascending limit orders starting at $98.5 with intervals of $0.5 (98.5, 99, 99.5, …$103) for an average sale price of $100.75. I placed descending limit orders later in the day to buy the same blocks starting at $98 and descending by $0.5. Two of those limit orders closed that day at $98 and $97.5 and subsequently, I was able to refill the remainder of my position with a total average price of $95.75. Notably, I realized neither the highest possible sale price nor the lowest possible purchase price over the period but still gained $5.00 per share. My cost basis was lowered from about $115 to about $110/share.</p><p><b>Risks: Plan to Win but Be Prepared to Fail</b></p><p>A thorough fundamental analysis of BABA or discussion of news is beyond the scope of this discussion; there is no shortage of analysis and news elsewhere. If one is going to buy or sell any stock, including short-term, evaluation should be carefully considered.</p><p>Further, the recommended buying and selling ranges may not be advantageous over any period if BABA makes a big move in either direction. I recommend traders generate a similar buy/sell plot either with Seeking Alpha&#39;s advanced charting tool or by printing and annotating a chart by hand.</p><p>Short-term trading can go wrong in at least two ways. An investor can sell a fraction of a position or an entire position at the beginning of a sustained rally. That investor might not have an opportunity to repurchase those shares at a lesser price if the stock continues to rally. Conversely, one can purchase an unlimited quantity of shares on a dip and never be able to sell those shares for a gain.</p><p>An individual investor can manage these risks several ways. Complimentary but opposite limit orders can be placed as transactions close. Some brokerages have special order types whereby a secondary order is placed after a primary order executes. Further, an investor can limit how much of a position is sold or stop buying a dip once a position limit is reached. Both selling and accumulation can be limited by adjusting the frequency, size, and spread of the trades.</p><p>An aggressive investor can sell up to 100% of any position at any moment or accumulate limited only by available funds. I recommend blocks no bigger than 10% of target position size with accumulation up to 1.5x target position and selling down to 50% of the same target. In many cases where a stock is volatile, placing ascending and/or descending limit orders can be a successful strategy. More conservative investors can buy and sell in blocks of 5% or less while limiting accumulation to 120% of a target position and selling down to 80% of the same target.</p><p><b>Investor Takeaways</b></p><p>Based on current valuation and momentum, I would not recommend decreasing a BABA position at this time. BABA positions are not dead money; I advise most investors trade BABA short-term with the goal of generating return while accumulating shares. I recommend most investors buy BABA below $95.35 and sell above $96.55 if trading remains in a range similar to the last five days. Notably, Baba closed at $91.80 on Friday and may open below $95.35 on Tuesday.</p><p>I recommend investors do their own scribbling over a price chart digitally or otherwise and then tabulate limit orders. The downloadable Excel spreadsheet will generate buy and sell limit orders based on share count, high &amp; low prices over any time range, sell count &amp; spread, and buy count &amp; spread. Investors who already hold a larger BABA position than fits their own risk reward profile may be eager to reduce exposure. These Investors can also generate a buy &amp; sell zone chart and tabulate limit orders with the same Excel spreadsheet.</p><p>I advise all investors remember the two bulls I recently observed: be the older wiser, bull; have a carefully considered plan; be methodical &amp; patient; and walk. Don&#39;t run. Investors who patiently execute carefully considered plans are often lucky.</p><blockquote>In the moment of action, remember the value of silence and order - Phormio of Athens</blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-06 23:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538878-alibaba-short-term-trading-strategy?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A24><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryOver the last 5 days, the market has reached a consensus of sorts on Alibaba's valuation; its value is somewhere between $90.78 and $100.88/share.Alibaba has repeatedly traded at high volumes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538878-alibaba-short-term-trading-strategy?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A24\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538878-alibaba-short-term-trading-strategy?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A24","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199050881","content_text":"SummaryOver the last 5 days, the market has reached a consensus of sorts on Alibaba's valuation; its value is somewhere between $90.78 and $100.88/share.Alibaba has repeatedly traded at high volumes near both value extremes in the last 5 days, sometimes on the same day.Alibaba's volatility makes it a great stock for short-term day or swing trading.Money in losing positions is often called \"dead money\". However short-term trading around a losing position can, if executed successfully, lower a position's cost basis and generate return.The Young Bull and the Older, Wiser BullRecently, I observed an old bull and a young bull grazing in a green pasture on a beautiful, sunny day. The young bull gazed towards a nearby watering hole and noticed a herd of cows had gathered there. The youngster said, \"I'm going to run over and buy one of those cows a drink\". The older, wiser bull replied, \"I'm going to walk over and buy them all a drink\".Alibaba: A Proverbial Herd of CowsOver the last year, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) has traded between a high of $182.09 and a low of $73.28. BABA has generally trended down with exceptional volatility and closed on September 2nd at $91.80.BABA: 1-Year Price RangeSeeking AlphaMany portfolios, no doubt, include \"dead money\" in losing BABA positions with negative unrealized and realized gains. However, each time a share changed hands at every price level, there was a winner and a loser on the trade. Clever or lucky investors sold at a short-term peak to a willing buyer; the opposite case is also true. Over most time ranges, it may be possible to get on the winning side of most trades and generate return even on dead money.Short-Term Trading Strategy: Maintain Share CountOver the last five days, BABA's price range has been $90.78 to $100.88/share. Over the same 5 days, BABA has traded at several shorter-term highs and lows. Based on the recent past and the last year, one could reasonably expect BABA to continue bouncing in a similar way. With the goal of maintaining share count while realizing short-term gains, I recommend a short-term buying and selling strategy based on a relatively simple analysis.BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy & Sell Ranges - Maintain Share CountSeeking AlphaBABA's 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. The green and red shaded areas represent short-term buy and sell zones by the author. The sell and buy ranges begin at 0.75% above and below the median price respectively. The 0.75% spread on each side of the median price range is somewhat arbitrary. It could be narrower or broader depending on several factors including one's risk tolerance, how closely one will follow BABA intraday, and one's planned trading frequency & volume. Based on my analysis of recent trading, I recommend buying BABA beginning at $95.11 and selling beginning at $96.55 in order to realize short-term gains while maintaining share count.Buy & Sell BABA While Maintaining Share CountThis chart was generated with a downloadable Excel spreadsheet by the author.Maintain Share CountAuthorAdjustable inputs are in the shaded cells. Buy and sell limit orders are tabulated with a goal of maintaining share count; buy & sell count and spread are equal. I recommend investors who are comfortable with short-term trading place descending buy and ascending sell limit orders on both sides of the short-term median price. Less aggressive investors can place a single limit order or a single buy and sell pair.However, based on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, some investors may wish to accumulate BABA.BABA: A Brief Review of Valuation and MomentumBABA: Historical EV/EBITDA RatioSeeking AlphaBABA EV/EBITDA is plotted over 3 years and is currently near its lowest point over that time range. The ratio reached a peak in late 2020 (arguably based on positive sentiment and hopeful analysis) and has since fallen on delisting concerns and negative sentiment. I expect delisting concerns to be resolved and sentiment to improve. Based on BABA's current EV/EBITDA ratio, now is a good time to accumulate shares.BABA: MomentumSeeking AlphaBABA share price is currently below its 200, 100, 50, and even 10-day simple moving averages. A simple momentum strategy is based on reversion to mean; over most time ranges, share price will oscillate around its mean value. If BABA oscillates towards any of its moving averages, share price will increase.Short-Term Trading Strategy: Accumulate SharesBased on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, I recommend investors accumulate BABA. The following graph is nearly identical to the graph discussed above; a single parameter has been adjusted.BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy & Sell Ranges: Accumulate SharesSeeking AlphaAgain, BABA's 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. However, the green and red shaded areas representing short-term buy and sell zones are asymmetric with relation to the median price. The sell range begins at 0.75% above the median price while the buy range begins 0.5% below the median price. Short-term trading with these ranges would be more likely to result in accumulation of shares than the \"Maintain Share Count\"strategy discussed previously.Buy & Sell BABA While Accumulating SharesThis chart is very similar to that discussed with relation to the \"Maintain Share Count\" strategy and was generated with the same downloadable Excel spreadsheet.Accumulate SharesAuthorThe only difference is the buy spread has been reduced to 0.50% from 0.75%. The recommended sell orders are identical while the recommended buy orders are slightly more aggressive. In essence, the recommended sell and buy orders would be more likely to result in accumulating shares than those listed in \"Buy & Sell BABA While Maintaining Share Count\"chart.Short-Term Trading and Wash SalesAny buyer or seller of any security including BABA should be aware of IRSrules on wash sales and seek the advice of a licensed accountant or other licensed professional as necessary. A good Seeking Alpha article on wash sale rules is also available. Generally, IRS wash rules apply to the sale and purchase of an identical stock within a 30-day period and are most often applied to tax loss sales.Another scenario can be beneficial to investors. If a losing position or fraction thereof is sold and then repurchased at a lesser cost, a wash sale occurs. Most brokerages will adjust the cost basis of the position. It is easiest to discuss with an example and I happen to hold a losing BABA position.My BABA cost basis is approximately $115. I swing trade losing positions aggressively and have shared my strategy in comments on BABA articles on two occasions. On August 26th, I sold my entire position in 10 blocks with ascending limit orders starting at $98.5 with intervals of $0.5 (98.5, 99, 99.5, …$103) for an average sale price of $100.75. I placed descending limit orders later in the day to buy the same blocks starting at $98 and descending by $0.5. Two of those limit orders closed that day at $98 and $97.5 and subsequently, I was able to refill the remainder of my position with a total average price of $95.75. Notably, I realized neither the highest possible sale price nor the lowest possible purchase price over the period but still gained $5.00 per share. My cost basis was lowered from about $115 to about $110/share.Risks: Plan to Win but Be Prepared to FailA thorough fundamental analysis of BABA or discussion of news is beyond the scope of this discussion; there is no shortage of analysis and news elsewhere. If one is going to buy or sell any stock, including short-term, evaluation should be carefully considered.Further, the recommended buying and selling ranges may not be advantageous over any period if BABA makes a big move in either direction. I recommend traders generate a similar buy/sell plot either with Seeking Alpha's advanced charting tool or by printing and annotating a chart by hand.Short-term trading can go wrong in at least two ways. An investor can sell a fraction of a position or an entire position at the beginning of a sustained rally. That investor might not have an opportunity to repurchase those shares at a lesser price if the stock continues to rally. Conversely, one can purchase an unlimited quantity of shares on a dip and never be able to sell those shares for a gain.An individual investor can manage these risks several ways. Complimentary but opposite limit orders can be placed as transactions close. Some brokerages have special order types whereby a secondary order is placed after a primary order executes. Further, an investor can limit how much of a position is sold or stop buying a dip once a position limit is reached. Both selling and accumulation can be limited by adjusting the frequency, size, and spread of the trades.An aggressive investor can sell up to 100% of any position at any moment or accumulate limited only by available funds. I recommend blocks no bigger than 10% of target position size with accumulation up to 1.5x target position and selling down to 50% of the same target. In many cases where a stock is volatile, placing ascending and/or descending limit orders can be a successful strategy. More conservative investors can buy and sell in blocks of 5% or less while limiting accumulation to 120% of a target position and selling down to 80% of the same target.Investor TakeawaysBased on current valuation and momentum, I would not recommend decreasing a BABA position at this time. BABA positions are not dead money; I advise most investors trade BABA short-term with the goal of generating return while accumulating shares. I recommend most investors buy BABA below $95.35 and sell above $96.55 if trading remains in a range similar to the last five days. Notably, Baba closed at $91.80 on Friday and may open below $95.35 on Tuesday.I recommend investors do their own scribbling over a price chart digitally or otherwise and then tabulate limit orders. The downloadable Excel spreadsheet will generate buy and sell limit orders based on share count, high & low prices over any time range, sell count & spread, and buy count & spread. Investors who already hold a larger BABA position than fits their own risk reward profile may be eager to reduce exposure. These Investors can also generate a buy & sell zone chart and tabulate limit orders with the same Excel spreadsheet.I advise all investors remember the two bulls I recently observed: be the older wiser, bull; have a carefully considered plan; be methodical & patient; and walk. Don't run. Investors who patiently execute carefully considered plans are often lucky.In the moment of action, remember the value of silence and order - Phormio of Athens","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":660888876,"gmtCreate":1661524664898,"gmtModify":1661524951918,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570187411453325","idStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stock split means more retail investors can have a stake in the company and not the company is issuing more shares.","listText":"Stock split means more retail investors can have a stake in the company and not the company is issuing more shares.","text":"Stock split means more retail investors can have a stake in the company and not the company is issuing more shares.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c23e3754b302c0b94cb6df0a3594da32","width":"750","height":"890"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/660888876","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687433039,"gmtCreate":1661213823223,"gmtModify":1661213826602,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570187411453325","idStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla still the EV market leader!","listText":"Tesla still the EV market leader!","text":"Tesla still the EV market leader!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/687433039","repostId":"1131026217","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131026217","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661212670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131026217?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-23 07:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"TSLA Stock Falls as Tesla Hikes FSD Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131026217","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Elon Musk has announced that Tesla(TSLA) is preparing for an important price hike.The company's full","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Elon Musk has announced that <b>Tesla</b>(<b>TSLA</b>) is preparing for an important price hike.</li><li>The company&#39;s full-self driving (FSD) package will cost $15,000 in September.</li><li>TSLA stock is falling as investors wonder if the product is worth the price.</li></ul><p><b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) is starting this week off in the red. TSLA stock will begin trading on a split basis later in the week, but today’s decline is due to a separate catalyst. Elon Musk has announced Tesla will be raising the price of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, its premium driver assistance software. Currently priced at $12,000, the product will be sold for $15,o0o starting Sept. 5, representing a 25% markup.</p><p>As <i>CNBC</i> reports, “All new Tesla vehicles come with a standard driver assistance package called Autopilot, which includes features like ‘Traffic-Aware Cruise Control’ and ‘Autosteer.’ These rely on cameras, other sensors, hardware and software to automatically keep a Tesla vehicle centered in its lane and traveling at the speed of surrounding traffic.”</p><p>Tesla’s FSD technology has generated plenty of controversy as it has progressed. But Musk clearly thinks demand will increase enough in the coming year to justify a price hike. Let’s dive into what TSLA stock investors can expect both before and after the FSD price hike.</p><p><b>What it Means for TSLA Stock</b></p><p>TSLA stock quickly fell after markets opened today. But Musk had already announced this news over the weekend through his favorite medium. On the morning of Aug. 21, he tweeted the following message, also highlighting the long-awaited 10.69.2 Beta update:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6e54444c98b1ad9211420004b1977d0\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"402\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In a comment on the post, Musk also noted that Tesla owners can upgrade their existing cars to FSD in two minutes by using the company’s app.<i>Electrek</i> reports Tesla rolled out the upgrade to 1,000 testers over the weekend. The outlet highlights the patch notes posted online appeared similar to leaked notes from the 10.13 beta upgrade, citing improvements to left turns and animal and pedestrian detection. While this sounds like positive improvements, Musk’s announcement raises one important question: is the product worth the price hike?</p><p>One expert doesn’t think so. John Koetsier is an AI and tech expert and host of the popular podcastTechFirst. He commented on Musk’s tweeted stating, “Way too expensive. You’re going to drive people to other car brands that include it.” When someone asked him to name examples of other companies providing a similar FSD software, Koetsier cited the Cadillac Super Cruise package. This alternative is offered by <b>General Motors</b>(NYSE:<b>GM</b>) for substantially less than Tesla’s equivalent. In early 2022, <i>Input</i> reported the following:</p><blockquote>“GM’s Super Cruise is making a play to become the gold standard for driving assist. While it takes a longer time to establish the Super Cruise network compared to Tesla’s approach, GM is well on its way to making it available on major highways and roads. Super Cruise, like Tesla’s Autopilot, is subscription-based, and costs $25 a month, though it does come free for three years with most GM vehicles.”</blockquote><p>The current monthly subscription cost for Tesla’s FSD package is $199. Next to that, GM’s option looks like an excellent deal. While it’s true that most other automakers aren’t offering similar products, Koetsier also states others will follow.<b>Ford</b>(NYSE:<b><u>F</u></b>) is already introducing the BlueCruise system, formerly known as Active Driver Assist.</p><p><b>The Road Ahead</b></p><p>While these companies haven’t been able to rival Tesla’s electric vehicle (EV) sales, FSD is a new type of technology that is poised to grow in popularity. Companies that are early to the party will have at least a chance at securing a market share, particularly as Tesla’s FSD tech has been flamed for multiple accidents. If another automaker’s driver assistance tech can help garner public trust, it could push TSLA stock down.</p><p>As such, it doesn’t make sense for Tesla to be raising prices at such a critical time. TSLA stock tell after the company raised EV prices in June 2022. Since demand for FSD packages isn’t as high as it is for Tesla vehicles, these price hikes could push it down even further.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSLA Stock Falls as Tesla Hikes FSD Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSLA Stock Falls as Tesla Hikes FSD Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-23 07:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/08/tsla-stock-falls-as-tesla-hikes-fsd-prices/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Elon Musk has announced that Tesla(TSLA) is preparing for an important price hike.The company's full-self driving (FSD) package will cost $15,000 in September.TSLA stock is falling as investors wonder...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/tsla-stock-falls-as-tesla-hikes-fsd-prices/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/tsla-stock-falls-as-tesla-hikes-fsd-prices/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131026217","content_text":"Elon Musk has announced that Tesla(TSLA) is preparing for an important price hike.The company's full-self driving (FSD) package will cost $15,000 in September.TSLA stock is falling as investors wonder if the product is worth the price.Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) is starting this week off in the red. TSLA stock will begin trading on a split basis later in the week, but today’s decline is due to a separate catalyst. Elon Musk has announced Tesla will be raising the price of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, its premium driver assistance software. Currently priced at $12,000, the product will be sold for $15,o0o starting Sept. 5, representing a 25% markup.As CNBC reports, “All new Tesla vehicles come with a standard driver assistance package called Autopilot, which includes features like ‘Traffic-Aware Cruise Control’ and ‘Autosteer.’ These rely on cameras, other sensors, hardware and software to automatically keep a Tesla vehicle centered in its lane and traveling at the speed of surrounding traffic.”Tesla’s FSD technology has generated plenty of controversy as it has progressed. But Musk clearly thinks demand will increase enough in the coming year to justify a price hike. Let’s dive into what TSLA stock investors can expect both before and after the FSD price hike.What it Means for TSLA StockTSLA stock quickly fell after markets opened today. But Musk had already announced this news over the weekend through his favorite medium. On the morning of Aug. 21, he tweeted the following message, also highlighting the long-awaited 10.69.2 Beta update:In a comment on the post, Musk also noted that Tesla owners can upgrade their existing cars to FSD in two minutes by using the company’s app.Electrek reports Tesla rolled out the upgrade to 1,000 testers over the weekend. The outlet highlights the patch notes posted online appeared similar to leaked notes from the 10.13 beta upgrade, citing improvements to left turns and animal and pedestrian detection. While this sounds like positive improvements, Musk’s announcement raises one important question: is the product worth the price hike?One expert doesn’t think so. John Koetsier is an AI and tech expert and host of the popular podcastTechFirst. He commented on Musk’s tweeted stating, “Way too expensive. You’re going to drive people to other car brands that include it.” When someone asked him to name examples of other companies providing a similar FSD software, Koetsier cited the Cadillac Super Cruise package. This alternative is offered by General Motors(NYSE:GM) for substantially less than Tesla’s equivalent. In early 2022, Input reported the following:“GM’s Super Cruise is making a play to become the gold standard for driving assist. While it takes a longer time to establish the Super Cruise network compared to Tesla’s approach, GM is well on its way to making it available on major highways and roads. Super Cruise, like Tesla’s Autopilot, is subscription-based, and costs $25 a month, though it does come free for three years with most GM vehicles.”The current monthly subscription cost for Tesla’s FSD package is $199. Next to that, GM’s option looks like an excellent deal. While it’s true that most other automakers aren’t offering similar products, Koetsier also states others will follow.Ford(NYSE:F) is already introducing the BlueCruise system, formerly known as Active Driver Assist.The Road AheadWhile these companies haven’t been able to rival Tesla’s electric vehicle (EV) sales, FSD is a new type of technology that is poised to grow in popularity. Companies that are early to the party will have at least a chance at securing a market share, particularly as Tesla’s FSD tech has been flamed for multiple accidents. If another automaker’s driver assistance tech can help garner public trust, it could push TSLA stock down.As such, it doesn’t make sense for Tesla to be raising prices at such a critical time. TSLA stock tell after the company raised EV prices in June 2022. Since demand for FSD packages isn’t as high as it is for Tesla vehicles, these price hikes could push it down even further.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1039,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687439728,"gmtCreate":1661213777366,"gmtModify":1661213782485,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570187411453325","idStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks very much for this detail write out!","listText":"Thanks very much for this detail write out!","text":"Thanks very much for this detail write out!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/687439728","repostId":"1113960584","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113960584","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661237527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113960584?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-23 14:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113960584","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging to stop the most lagged part of inflation.</li><li>The markets don&#39;t realize that fed members are in full hawkish mode. Although the market is certain about a soft-landing, the fed indicator suggests a recession.</li><li>Short-covering contributed to the latest bear market rally significantly. As there are very low short sales volumes right now, the reversion could be next.</li><li>SPY significantly deviated from real yields (strong inverse correlation) and this exemption won&#39;t last long.</li><li>The macroeconomic outlook could worsen with additional rate hikes, which is not supportive for EPS.</li></ul><p>In my most recent bond analysis, which focused on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), inflation, and monetary outlook, we predicted that the YoY and MoM inflation peaks would both occur in the months of July - September. I wagered that commodity prices would decline and that other leading indicators would also dramatically deteriorate. However the Fed responds to the most lagging inflation parts, the CPI/PCE/core CPI report from July is not initially bullish. Lower commodities prices had a significant impact on the MoM&#39;s &#34;stabilization,&#34; but the most lagging drivers to the CPI - shelter and services are still quite high and are still increasing. The necessary items, which the Fed wants to stabilize, are not stabilizing.</p><p>On first glance, the market rallied due to strong data from inflation prints, but in our breakdown, the data has not been strong at all. SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) deviated from the long-term inverse correlation between real yields and SPY&#39;s price mainly due to a &#34;strong fundamental week.&#34; However, I&#39;m firmly convinced this was another bear market rally. Medium-term inflation expectations rose, which is not a good case for stocks. In summary, we can await more rate hikes to come, more than the market currently prices in.</p><p><b>Inflation breakdown</b></p><p>The CPI&#39;s YoY growth was still high at 8.5% and rose in July by zero percent. However, the core CPI rose &#34;only&#34; by 0.2%, which was lower than the consensus. Nevertheless, if you make an inflation breakdown, you will see the drivers. Motor fuel (oil &amp; gas) has contributed very negatively to the overall CPI monthly change. This item is the most current in the lagged CPI. However, the most lagging components of the CPI are housing, food prices, medical care services, and other services, and it will take some time for these inputs to stabilize or decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32fb983d571f92f960166b97b1eb1e09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>CPI monthly change(@MacroAlf)</p><p>As I stated in my previous analysis on TLT, the consumer destruction will take place in 2-3 months. The issue is that supply-side inflation (mainly oil, gas, and other commodities) can be impacted only indirectly - mainly by lowered demand. That is what we see in the commodity market right now. Industrial commodities and the ones that have a great impact on overall CPI started to decline. But it does not reflect only demand destruction but also the quite strong economic slowdown (forward-looking). I still believe inflation will go down, but mainly due to the strong base effect caused by the measured style-YoY comparison. The much more important figure will be core inflation on a monthly basis.</p><p>Still, if inflation were to be zero on a monthly basis till the end of the year, it would still be at 6.5%, and if it were to be longer, it would be at 3.3% in March. Still significantly above the fed&#39;s medium-term target. I am confident that inflation will fall, and that we will see a significant slowdown in 4Q2022, but this must be accompanied by a continued reduction in consumption and GDP growth forecasts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16abe6e1dd19cfbe7ada120183feb6d6\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Projecting CPI at Year-End(BLS, Cleveland Federal Reserve Nowcast)</p><p><b>Outlook on the monetary policy</b></p><p>I&#39;m strongly convinced that inflation will go down on a YoY basis. On the other hand, I&#39;m a little bit less convinced by the MoM point of view. To support this scenario, the fed will need to be very hawkish to convince the market that it will do so. Despite still having a very inverted yield curve, the market started to price in fewer rate cuts than anticipated 2-3 weeks ago. And this is all on the back of lower-than-expected inflation figures from a week ago. The spread between Fed funds futures rates in Dec 2022 and Dec 2023 is reaching less than -0.2, thus implying market expectations of almost only one rate cut till Dec 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a4b790ae098a035c35b830ca03c865\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Spread between FFF 12/2022 and 12/2023(Author´s calculation via Tradingview)</p><p>Despite the fact that the market began slightly repeating the FOMC member&#39;s rhetoric, the stocks rallied significantly. It is because the market believed the narrative of &#34;soft-landing&#34; to be more probable than before inflation prints. However, the inflation fight is still not over. I consider this rally unsustainable and not supported by the macro fundamentals. After the inflation print, rates expectations measured by Fed funds futures rose quite significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33f3f05a2f5ce92a0dc8992ced3b6a53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Rates expectations measured by FFF(Author´s calculations via Tradingview)</p><p>Thus, retail investors are fairly misled by inflation print and soft-landing. This scenario does not support the thesis of being bullish at current levels. However, for me, the very strong narrative stands behind the real yields and SPY. There is a very strong negative correlation among the variables, which the market fully ignored until Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fed22002670360778cb46af429c3e6fd\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Real Yields vs. S&amp;P500(Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p><b>The key driver of the latest rally was short-covering</b></p><p>As many investors / traders followed the inflation print and saw a market rally, they massively closed their short positions or bets, which led to a significant rally from the bottom. That&#39;s the true reason why the market rallied in the previous weeks. And it only makes sense to me because macro fundamentals such as real yields and other leading indicators have all worsened, just hand in hand with a strong labor market. Despite the rise in real yields, the market rallied in recent weeks, their negative correlation deviated significantly from normal conditions, giving me no reason to be bullish from a macro perspective.</p><p>On the contrary, as I said, the rally was caused mainly by short covering (the closing of short position) and it was the 3rd most aggressive short-covering in the latest ten years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4500679330262cedb633a0fba418e7ad\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Short covering / Short selling(GS Prime Book via Investro)</p><p>And also a great chart from @MacroCharts, which measures the sum of (QQQ) deltas, indicated that this massive rally was caused by a full switch of position. As there are monitored deltas for QQQ, I believe it will be similar for the S&amp;P 500 or SPY, because major stocks from QQQ are also integrated with significant weights in SPY. From the extremely short to the extremely long ones. For me, it is absolutely unsustainable to remain at such levels, and the rising probability of further downturn, combined with macro fundamentals, gives me quite strong confidence.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/984923367a1ab56eb4804dde1f6a5a07\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Sum of QQQ Deltas(Charlie Mcelligott / Nomura via @MacroCharts)</p><p>Another very important measure, which I highly recommend, is to follow short sale volumes for SPY/QQQ and others. The chart below just implies there is a lack of shorts or very low activity in short selling, which is a great contrarian indicator. The 10-day moving average of short sale volume, measured by FINRA, indicates there is a lack of short sale volume, indicates the market is probably exhausted. It also confirms the thesis of short-covering rally in the previous weeks as well. Just look at the significant numbers of short selling in mid June, in hand with the market bottom. There should be no surprises about the following market squeeze or strong short-covering activity. Currently, I see a strong reversal situation, thus giving room for another leg down in SPY. However, I also could be wrong, but combined with the real yields narrative, the worsening economic situation, and the strong contrarian indicator of short sale volume, I am firmly convinced this was another bear market rally.</p><p><b>The Fed believes a soft landing is less likely than the market</b></p><p>The reason why I believe such a narrative is caused by FOMC members&#39; statements as well as by the data-driven approach. First of all, there are leading indicators that are screaming to us that inflation as well as economic growth will slow down. However, as previously stated, the YoY will slow, and the MoM will most likely stabilize. However, even if there is a 0% MoM change until the end of the year, inflation will still be significantly above the medium term horizon and above the fed&#39;s key target. With so strong numbers from the labor market, the fed can be calm to focus really on inflation and to tame it. The sacrifice would be economic growth. This is the reason why I believe rate hikes will continue until the fed sees a portion of lagging core CPI MoM moving around -0.2% to 0.1% in the medium term.</p><p>Now, let&#39;s summarize some of the latest statements from FOMC members.</p><p>Fed&#39;s Bullard, according to Reuters:</p><blockquote><i>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who was among the central bank&#39;s earliest advocates last year of a more muscular response to fast-building price pressures, said that given the strength of the economy he is currently leaning toward supporting a third straight 75-basis-point interest rate hike in September.</i></blockquote><p>Also, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve,stated earlier on Thursday that raising rates by 50 or 75 basis points at the fed&#39;s upcoming policy meeting on September 20-21 would be a &#34;reasonable&#34; way to raise short-term borrowing costs to slightly above 3% by the end of this year and put them on a path to a little bit higher in 2023.</p><p>Also a kindly hawkish note from the Fed&#39;s Kashkari:</p><blockquote><i>So the question right now is, can we bring inflation down without triggering a recession? And my answer to that question is: I don’t know. Fed has more work to do in raising interest rates to bring inflation down.</i></blockquote><p>Despite the better than expected inflation print, the fight is not over and there must be a clear indication of tightening conditions that will continue to bring inflation down. Until then, the market still hopes for a soft-landing as in 2019, but this is really different story. I&#39;m firmly convinced it will bring a bigger economic slowdown than the current one, but I don&#39;t know if it will be a big recession. Probably not. But it will be harder than soft-landing. Kashkari is one of the first FOMC members to admit that they are unsure whether it will cause the recession or not. They just can&#39;t tell you, &#34;for sure we will cause a recession.&#34; However, in the previous months, when the yield curve started to be inverted, the fed screamed that it was not an appropriate indicator of recession. The opposite is the truth.</p><p>However, the fed released its own indicator of forecasting recession, slightly different than the classic yield curve, which had not been inverted before. It is now fully inverted, which, according to previous fed papers, should clearly indicate a recession going forward. A great chart from@MacroAlfcalculated the development of this indicator, and as it was almost one month ago, it started to be inverted, thus confirming that the fed knows and is aware of the ongoing recession. Regardless of what they say. It was the only opinion as the yield curve started to be inverted that it was better to monitor the &#34;near-term spread,&#34; calculated as 18m forward 3m yields minus 3m yields, as it is a much more precise predictor of the upcoming recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aced83130fc7620517eccea36b9a2d28\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Fed´s preferred yield curve indicator(@MacroAlf)</p><p><b>Earnings are lagged, CPI too</b></p><p>However, I&#39;m convinced that CPI will go down and the fed will tame inflation. The issue is that there will be an EPS drop as well. To tame inflation rapidly, it is necessary to cause an economic slowdown. However, it is happening right now, and many leading indicators are confirming this thesis. Companies are oversupplied (with inventories), commodity prices are falling, and PMI and new orders are dropping too. Oil is falling; however, natural gas recovered from the total drawdown seen in July. Nevertheless, the macro indicators tell me that inflation will calm down, but the fed needs to continue doing its job and focus on inflation. I also believe that it can cause a mild recession and then we could see slight rate cuts in 2023. The next chart shows the leading indicator - G5 Credit Impulse and its impact on S&amp;P 500 EPS as well as CPI YoY. Both are well lagged vs. their leading indicator, which leads by 4-5 quarters. This also supports our thesis, thus giving room for EPS decline as well as for CPI decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f434d630603e9b6a62684bdcc200676\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>G5 Credit impluse as leading indicator(@MacroAlf)</p><p><b>Risks and Summary</b></p><p>Let&#39;s start with the risk to our thesis. The first risk can be that I have wrongly detected another bear market rally and where a bull market started. I do not say we will find the new bottom. Currently, I&#39;m convinced that under current macro circumstances, followed by sale volumes and short-covering narrative, the market is overbought and should decline 5-15% from its current levels. The next risk to this thesis is that inflation will fall fast with a soft-landing. Although I see a little probability, it is still a kind of scenario. When inflation, mainly core inflation, drops significantly, it could cause the fed to stop the tightening cycle and, after 2-3 quarters, to ease conditions rapidly. And that&#39;s all without economic damage, with a strong labor market and slight economic growth. Currently, I&#39;m not convinced that is the case.</p><p>In my opinion, the short scenario has significantly bigger odds right now for plenty of reasons: Real yields and the SPY correlation have significantly deteriorated and deviated, which is unsustainable in my opinion. Additionally, we saw that due to strong short-covering rally - the 3rd largest in the last 10 years. Next reason is that there is a lack of short sellers right now, which could indicate a short-term market peak. The market rally could be exhausted because there are no short sellers. The next indicator is the still and tireless statements from FOMC&#39;s members, which are still very hawkish, and the best case is to DO NOT FIGHT THE FED. The most recent narrative remains focused on inflation print. Very volatile figures and the most current ones as motor fuel, transportation, and others are down, but it depends on prices (on the market). However, the fed wants to see the most lagging parts as a shelter, services, and demand side inflation to cool down. It will take some time, and I believe we will see that. But also, it will have a negative impact on EPS. Also, I can be wrong, but these are the key reasons why I firmly believe that the market is exhausted (upwards) and a short-term rally downwards could continue.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-23 14:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536168-spy-time-to-get-out-weak-short-sale-volumes-indicate-reversal><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging to stop the most lagged part of inflation.The markets don't realize that fed members are in full ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536168-spy-time-to-get-out-weak-short-sale-volumes-indicate-reversal\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536168-spy-time-to-get-out-weak-short-sale-volumes-indicate-reversal","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113960584","content_text":"SummaryThe base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging to stop the most lagged part of inflation.The markets don't realize that fed members are in full hawkish mode. Although the market is certain about a soft-landing, the fed indicator suggests a recession.Short-covering contributed to the latest bear market rally significantly. As there are very low short sales volumes right now, the reversion could be next.SPY significantly deviated from real yields (strong inverse correlation) and this exemption won't last long.The macroeconomic outlook could worsen with additional rate hikes, which is not supportive for EPS.In my most recent bond analysis, which focused on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), inflation, and monetary outlook, we predicted that the YoY and MoM inflation peaks would both occur in the months of July - September. I wagered that commodity prices would decline and that other leading indicators would also dramatically deteriorate. However the Fed responds to the most lagging inflation parts, the CPI/PCE/core CPI report from July is not initially bullish. Lower commodities prices had a significant impact on the MoM's \"stabilization,\" but the most lagging drivers to the CPI - shelter and services are still quite high and are still increasing. The necessary items, which the Fed wants to stabilize, are not stabilizing.On first glance, the market rallied due to strong data from inflation prints, but in our breakdown, the data has not been strong at all. SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) deviated from the long-term inverse correlation between real yields and SPY's price mainly due to a \"strong fundamental week.\" However, I'm firmly convinced this was another bear market rally. Medium-term inflation expectations rose, which is not a good case for stocks. In summary, we can await more rate hikes to come, more than the market currently prices in.Inflation breakdownThe CPI's YoY growth was still high at 8.5% and rose in July by zero percent. However, the core CPI rose \"only\" by 0.2%, which was lower than the consensus. Nevertheless, if you make an inflation breakdown, you will see the drivers. Motor fuel (oil & gas) has contributed very negatively to the overall CPI monthly change. This item is the most current in the lagged CPI. However, the most lagging components of the CPI are housing, food prices, medical care services, and other services, and it will take some time for these inputs to stabilize or decline.CPI monthly change(@MacroAlf)As I stated in my previous analysis on TLT, the consumer destruction will take place in 2-3 months. The issue is that supply-side inflation (mainly oil, gas, and other commodities) can be impacted only indirectly - mainly by lowered demand. That is what we see in the commodity market right now. Industrial commodities and the ones that have a great impact on overall CPI started to decline. But it does not reflect only demand destruction but also the quite strong economic slowdown (forward-looking). I still believe inflation will go down, but mainly due to the strong base effect caused by the measured style-YoY comparison. The much more important figure will be core inflation on a monthly basis.Still, if inflation were to be zero on a monthly basis till the end of the year, it would still be at 6.5%, and if it were to be longer, it would be at 3.3% in March. Still significantly above the fed's medium-term target. I am confident that inflation will fall, and that we will see a significant slowdown in 4Q2022, but this must be accompanied by a continued reduction in consumption and GDP growth forecasts.Projecting CPI at Year-End(BLS, Cleveland Federal Reserve Nowcast)Outlook on the monetary policyI'm strongly convinced that inflation will go down on a YoY basis. On the other hand, I'm a little bit less convinced by the MoM point of view. To support this scenario, the fed will need to be very hawkish to convince the market that it will do so. Despite still having a very inverted yield curve, the market started to price in fewer rate cuts than anticipated 2-3 weeks ago. And this is all on the back of lower-than-expected inflation figures from a week ago. The spread between Fed funds futures rates in Dec 2022 and Dec 2023 is reaching less than -0.2, thus implying market expectations of almost only one rate cut till Dec 2023.Spread between FFF 12/2022 and 12/2023(Author´s calculation via Tradingview)Despite the fact that the market began slightly repeating the FOMC member's rhetoric, the stocks rallied significantly. It is because the market believed the narrative of \"soft-landing\" to be more probable than before inflation prints. However, the inflation fight is still not over. I consider this rally unsustainable and not supported by the macro fundamentals. After the inflation print, rates expectations measured by Fed funds futures rose quite significantly.Rates expectations measured by FFF(Author´s calculations via Tradingview)Thus, retail investors are fairly misled by inflation print and soft-landing. This scenario does not support the thesis of being bullish at current levels. However, for me, the very strong narrative stands behind the real yields and SPY. There is a very strong negative correlation among the variables, which the market fully ignored until Friday.Real Yields vs. S&P500(Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research)The key driver of the latest rally was short-coveringAs many investors / traders followed the inflation print and saw a market rally, they massively closed their short positions or bets, which led to a significant rally from the bottom. That's the true reason why the market rallied in the previous weeks. And it only makes sense to me because macro fundamentals such as real yields and other leading indicators have all worsened, just hand in hand with a strong labor market. Despite the rise in real yields, the market rallied in recent weeks, their negative correlation deviated significantly from normal conditions, giving me no reason to be bullish from a macro perspective.On the contrary, as I said, the rally was caused mainly by short covering (the closing of short position) and it was the 3rd most aggressive short-covering in the latest ten years.Short covering / Short selling(GS Prime Book via Investro)And also a great chart from @MacroCharts, which measures the sum of (QQQ) deltas, indicated that this massive rally was caused by a full switch of position. As there are monitored deltas for QQQ, I believe it will be similar for the S&P 500 or SPY, because major stocks from QQQ are also integrated with significant weights in SPY. From the extremely short to the extremely long ones. For me, it is absolutely unsustainable to remain at such levels, and the rising probability of further downturn, combined with macro fundamentals, gives me quite strong confidence.Sum of QQQ Deltas(Charlie Mcelligott / Nomura via @MacroCharts)Another very important measure, which I highly recommend, is to follow short sale volumes for SPY/QQQ and others. The chart below just implies there is a lack of shorts or very low activity in short selling, which is a great contrarian indicator. The 10-day moving average of short sale volume, measured by FINRA, indicates there is a lack of short sale volume, indicates the market is probably exhausted. It also confirms the thesis of short-covering rally in the previous weeks as well. Just look at the significant numbers of short selling in mid June, in hand with the market bottom. There should be no surprises about the following market squeeze or strong short-covering activity. Currently, I see a strong reversal situation, thus giving room for another leg down in SPY. However, I also could be wrong, but combined with the real yields narrative, the worsening economic situation, and the strong contrarian indicator of short sale volume, I am firmly convinced this was another bear market rally.The Fed believes a soft landing is less likely than the marketThe reason why I believe such a narrative is caused by FOMC members' statements as well as by the data-driven approach. First of all, there are leading indicators that are screaming to us that inflation as well as economic growth will slow down. However, as previously stated, the YoY will slow, and the MoM will most likely stabilize. However, even if there is a 0% MoM change until the end of the year, inflation will still be significantly above the medium term horizon and above the fed's key target. With so strong numbers from the labor market, the fed can be calm to focus really on inflation and to tame it. The sacrifice would be economic growth. This is the reason why I believe rate hikes will continue until the fed sees a portion of lagging core CPI MoM moving around -0.2% to 0.1% in the medium term.Now, let's summarize some of the latest statements from FOMC members.Fed's Bullard, according to Reuters:St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who was among the central bank's earliest advocates last year of a more muscular response to fast-building price pressures, said that given the strength of the economy he is currently leaning toward supporting a third straight 75-basis-point interest rate hike in September.Also, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve,stated earlier on Thursday that raising rates by 50 or 75 basis points at the fed's upcoming policy meeting on September 20-21 would be a \"reasonable\" way to raise short-term borrowing costs to slightly above 3% by the end of this year and put them on a path to a little bit higher in 2023.Also a kindly hawkish note from the Fed's Kashkari:So the question right now is, can we bring inflation down without triggering a recession? And my answer to that question is: I don’t know. Fed has more work to do in raising interest rates to bring inflation down.Despite the better than expected inflation print, the fight is not over and there must be a clear indication of tightening conditions that will continue to bring inflation down. Until then, the market still hopes for a soft-landing as in 2019, but this is really different story. I'm firmly convinced it will bring a bigger economic slowdown than the current one, but I don't know if it will be a big recession. Probably not. But it will be harder than soft-landing. Kashkari is one of the first FOMC members to admit that they are unsure whether it will cause the recession or not. They just can't tell you, \"for sure we will cause a recession.\" However, in the previous months, when the yield curve started to be inverted, the fed screamed that it was not an appropriate indicator of recession. The opposite is the truth.However, the fed released its own indicator of forecasting recession, slightly different than the classic yield curve, which had not been inverted before. It is now fully inverted, which, according to previous fed papers, should clearly indicate a recession going forward. A great chart from@MacroAlfcalculated the development of this indicator, and as it was almost one month ago, it started to be inverted, thus confirming that the fed knows and is aware of the ongoing recession. Regardless of what they say. It was the only opinion as the yield curve started to be inverted that it was better to monitor the \"near-term spread,\" calculated as 18m forward 3m yields minus 3m yields, as it is a much more precise predictor of the upcoming recession.Fed´s preferred yield curve indicator(@MacroAlf)Earnings are lagged, CPI tooHowever, I'm convinced that CPI will go down and the fed will tame inflation. The issue is that there will be an EPS drop as well. To tame inflation rapidly, it is necessary to cause an economic slowdown. However, it is happening right now, and many leading indicators are confirming this thesis. Companies are oversupplied (with inventories), commodity prices are falling, and PMI and new orders are dropping too. Oil is falling; however, natural gas recovered from the total drawdown seen in July. Nevertheless, the macro indicators tell me that inflation will calm down, but the fed needs to continue doing its job and focus on inflation. I also believe that it can cause a mild recession and then we could see slight rate cuts in 2023. The next chart shows the leading indicator - G5 Credit Impulse and its impact on S&P 500 EPS as well as CPI YoY. Both are well lagged vs. their leading indicator, which leads by 4-5 quarters. This also supports our thesis, thus giving room for EPS decline as well as for CPI decline.G5 Credit impluse as leading indicator(@MacroAlf)Risks and SummaryLet's start with the risk to our thesis. The first risk can be that I have wrongly detected another bear market rally and where a bull market started. I do not say we will find the new bottom. Currently, I'm convinced that under current macro circumstances, followed by sale volumes and short-covering narrative, the market is overbought and should decline 5-15% from its current levels. The next risk to this thesis is that inflation will fall fast with a soft-landing. Although I see a little probability, it is still a kind of scenario. When inflation, mainly core inflation, drops significantly, it could cause the fed to stop the tightening cycle and, after 2-3 quarters, to ease conditions rapidly. And that's all without economic damage, with a strong labor market and slight economic growth. Currently, I'm not convinced that is the case.In my opinion, the short scenario has significantly bigger odds right now for plenty of reasons: Real yields and the SPY correlation have significantly deteriorated and deviated, which is unsustainable in my opinion. Additionally, we saw that due to strong short-covering rally - the 3rd largest in the last 10 years. Next reason is that there is a lack of short sellers right now, which could indicate a short-term market peak. The market rally could be exhausted because there are no short sellers. The next indicator is the still and tireless statements from FOMC's members, which are still very hawkish, and the best case is to DO NOT FIGHT THE FED. The most recent narrative remains focused on inflation print. Very volatile figures and the most current ones as motor fuel, transportation, and others are down, but it depends on prices (on the market). However, the fed wants to see the most lagging parts as a shelter, services, and demand side inflation to cool down. It will take some time, and I believe we will see that. But also, it will have a negative impact on EPS. Also, I can be wrong, but these are the key reasons why I firmly believe that the market is exhausted (upwards) and a short-term rally downwards could continue.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685105724,"gmtCreate":1659480599870,"gmtModify":1659485803098,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570187411453325","idStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Something to rejoice about in this turbulent market condition =)","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Something to rejoice about in this turbulent market condition =)","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Something to rejoice about in this turbulent market condition =)","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfba5f333584f2ac4b51573a0ba30bef","width":"1640","height":"1888"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685105724","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685105028,"gmtCreate":1659479638069,"gmtModify":1659479641458,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570187411453325","idStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing. Hopefully the author is wrong about Tesla.","listText":"Thanks for sharing. Hopefully the author is wrong about Tesla.","text":"Thanks for sharing. Hopefully the author is wrong about Tesla.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685105028","repostId":"2256654277","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":970,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":682501479,"gmtCreate":1659055223795,"gmtModify":1659055227283,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570187411453325","idStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I am so glad !!","listText":"I am so glad !!","text":"I am so glad !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/682501479","repostId":"2255308108","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2255308108","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1659040383,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2255308108?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-29 04:33","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Apple CFO Says Supply Chain Issues In June Quarter Cost Under $4B In Sales","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2255308108","media":"Benzinga","summary":"-Reuters","content":"<html><body><p>-Reuters</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple CFO Says Supply Chain Issues In June Quarter Cost Under $4B In Sales\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-29 04:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>-Reuters</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/22/07/28256587/apple-cfo-says-supply-chain-issues-in-june-quarter-cost-under-4b-in-sales","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2255308108","content_text":"-Reuters","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":682501264,"gmtCreate":1659055169763,"gmtModify":1659055175928,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570187411453325","idStr":"3570187411453325"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So happy to hear the passing of the bill for the future of America :)","listText":"So happy to hear the passing of the bill for the future of America :)","text":"So happy to hear the passing of the bill for the future of America :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/682501264","repostId":"2255058293","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}