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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-17
  Wow
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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-16
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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-16
  Wow
  Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish 股票：耐心的投资者可能很快就会再次看到 20 美元</blockquote>
  Summary Wish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce tradi
  Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish 股票：耐心的投资者可能很快就会再次看到 20 美元</blockquote>
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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-14
  Wow
  AMD’s stock has been left behind, but not for long — here’s why<blockquote>AMD 的股票已经落后，但不会持续太久--原因如下</blockquote>
  Advanced Micro Devices has a slew of new cutting-edge products, not to mention a key acquisition, to
  AMD’s stock has been left behind, but not for long — here’s why<blockquote>AMD 的股票已经落后，但不会持续太久--原因如下</blockquote>
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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-13
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-13
  Wow
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-12
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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-12
  Wow
  The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉到来：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录的崩溃</blockquote>
  For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on
  The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉到来：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录的崩溃</blockquote>
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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-10
  Woww
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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-04
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,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169123756","repostId":"1148768572","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148768572","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623822306,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148768572?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 13:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish 股票：耐心的投资者可能很快就会再次看到 20 美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148768572","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce tradi","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.</li>  <li>Wish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.</li>  <li>While accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.</li>  <li>I believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>JuSun/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Wish (ContextLogic) 仍然是电子商务交易中最被低估的资产之一，远期销售额仅为 1.3 倍。</li><li>Wish与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将进一步加速国际扩张和增长计划。</li><li>虽然由于其大部分流通量仍被锁定，因此很难找到有关其空头权益的准确数据，但我估计空头权益在 30-40% 之间。</li><li>我认为，包括高营销支出和停滞不前的用户数量在内的熊市论点已经在当前的股价中形成。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JuSun/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> ContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.</p><p><blockquote>ContextLogic (WISH) 对股东来说是一次疯狂的旅程，因为最近几周高波动性继续导致价格大幅波动。该电子商务平台最初于 12 月以每股 20 美元的价格上市，但由于势头驱动的反弹，2 月份股价飙升至 32 美元的历史新高。尽管如此，此后股价一直在稳步暴跌，6 月份触及 7 美元的历史低点，但在零售交易行业兴趣增加后，股价现在正在迅速复苏。在这里，该股因其高波动性、短期利息和巨大的上涨潜力而受到青睐。</blockquote></p><p> In this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.</p><p><blockquote>在这种背景下，我认为高空头利息越来越多地将股价推至公允价值以下，耐心的投资者可能很快就会再次看到 20 美元或更高，因为该公司正在克服物流挑战，并将很快恢复规模经济。在这方面，电子商务平台具有独特的价值主张，并处于有利地位，可以在6万亿美元的电子商务行业中获得市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Digital Dollar Tree</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数字美元树</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.</p><p><blockquote>Wish 作为一个电子商务平台受到了严厉批评，我几乎可以说，迄今为止，它作为中国商家第三方“直运”网站的形象让投资者远离了该股票。然而，这可能只是部分正确。从本质上讲，Wish 通过低价（低质量）产品和可能导致长达数周的缓慢交货时间颠覆了亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）的商业模式。这是因为Wish不处理运输本身，这就是为什么它可以提供这些超低的价格，以2美元加2美元的运费提供一件连帽衫。</blockquote></p><p> Frankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>坦率地说，Wish仍然依赖中国商家，占其产品目录的大部分。考虑到大多数商品都是在中国生产的，因为生产成本是世界上最低的之一，这并不奇怪。亚马逊或 eBay（纳斯达克股票代码：eBay）上销售的大多数商品也是在中国生产的，尽管由于一日送达运输计划或更高的价格，它们获得了更高的知名度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bea733440e86851af57559c6a5fd6bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Now, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我把Wish看作是数字美元树，网上购物者可以在这里发现他们想要的而不是需要的商品。在这个过程中，客户对产品有了更多的耐心，愿意等待更长时间才能到货。随着其平台越来越受欢迎，Wish正在努力解决这两个问题（质量和商家多元化）。在这里，它一直在投资物流以提供更快的交付速度，物流收入同比增长 275% 就证明了这一点。由于这些收入提供的利润率较低，其整体毛利率也相应下降。然而，一旦该领域实现规模经济，利润率增长应该会逆转并回落至 70%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.</p><p><blockquote>它还通过不断扩大其国际商户基础来解决第二个问题。在这里，美国商家同比增长超过400%，其他国家也有类似的趋势。此外，它正在发展Wish Local，这是一项将本地企业连接到平台的服务，占所有Wish订单的7%。Wish local主要（或只）在美国有售，因此越来越多地与网站上的其他产品混合使用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09eb88453d075db6b7b8edd21f981b4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: Sensor Tower</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：传感器塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.</p><p><blockquote>我也喜欢Wish通过利用人工智能匹配系统来吸引和留住用户的策略，该系统优化了平台增长、用户体验和商家投资回报。创建交互式移动购物体验的策略似乎运行良好：令人印象深刻的是，Wish每天从用户那里获得超过50万条评论，在这方面甚至超过了亚马逊和其他购物网站，这表明了该平台的吸引力。大约80%的首次购物者会再次购买。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Wish能够在竞争激烈的电子商务市场中立足，为增长提供了巨大的跑道。目前，约40%的电子商务市场份额仅由亚马逊拥有。与亚马逊相比，其 TAM 可能有限，因为它专注于低收入市场，这也是它最初流行的原因。尽管如此，这仍然代表着 Wish 可以利用的价值 3 万亿美元的市场机会。还值得注意的是，据toreports报道，亚马逊试图以100亿美元收购Wish，但Wish拒绝了，认为将业务年销售额增长到1000亿美元，届时其估值将明显更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Negative Sentiment Baked In</b></p><p><blockquote><b>负面情绪持续存在</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.</p><p><blockquote>Wish 的前两个季度有点令人失望。虽然该公司轻松超出了收入预期，但为了投资物流，该公司烧掉了超过 3 亿美元的现金。然而，更重要的是，MAU 稳步下降，该公司将此归咎于公司在应对今年早些时候面临的物流挑战时不再强调广告和客户获取。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Year</td>    <td>2020</td>    <td>2019</td>    <td>2018</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revenue</td>    <td>$2.54B</td>    <td>$1.9B</td>    <td>$1.73B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Gross Profit</td>    <td>$1.59B</td>    <td>$1.46B</td>    <td>$1.45B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Sales and Marketing</b></td>    <td><b>$1.71B (+17%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.46B (-7%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.57B</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>MAUs</td>    <td>107M (+19%)</td>    <td>90M (+10%)</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td><td>2020</td><td>2019</td><td>2018</td></tr><tr><td>收入</td><td>$254B</td><td>19亿美元</td><td>17.3亿美元</td></tr><tr><td>毛利</td><td>15.9亿美元</td><td>14.6亿美元</td><td>14.5亿美元</td></tr><tr><td><b>销售及市场推广</b></td><td><b>17.1亿美元（+17%）</b></td><td><b>14.6亿美元（-7%）</b></td><td><b>$15.7B</b></td></tr><tr><td>老鼠</td><td>1.07亿（+19%）</td><td>90米（+10%）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>82M</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Active Buyers</b></td>    <td><b>64M (+3%)</b></td>    <td><b>62M (-3%)</b></td>    <td><b>64M</b></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> *Growth (Year-over-Year)</p><p><blockquote><td>82米</td><tr><td><b>活跃买家</b></td><td><b>6400万（+3%）</b></td><td><b>6200万（-3%）</b></td><td><b>64米</b></td></tr>*增长（同比）</blockquote></p><p> The largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.</p><p><blockquote>反对 Wish 的最大理由是其高昂的营销费用，占其总收入的 60%，毛利润的 100% 以上。这完全没问题，除非它通过营销来增加活跃买家，但不幸的是，情况并非如此。这是一个危险信号，令人质疑 Wish 商业模式的长期可持续性。然而，该公司的现金流已接近正，并表示如果不是因为大量的营销费用，它已经实现了盈利。也就是说，只要Wish获得新的MAU并通过物流服务增加价值，从长远来看，其营销费用就会得到回报。此外，Wish 的营销费用占总收入的比例已从上一年的 67% 降至 60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e18c23728274ee708d896923820b282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"278\"><span>Source: Wish IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Wish IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).</p><p><blockquote>就前景而言，这是该公司本质上强调的。它认为营销费用可以降至 40-45%，从而使 EBITDA 利润率在中点范围内达到 25%。如果它实现这些雄心勃勃的目标（这是很有可能的），其利润率将与 eBay 或 MercadoLibre（纳斯达克股票代码：MELI）相似。无论哪种方式，Wish 的商业模式都并不完美，但在我看来，所有这些担忧都不仅仅体现在其当前的估值中。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54029f94c37f301d26e93a11636280e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.</p><p><blockquote>即使在最近一次上涨 +50% 之后，股价仍然远远落后于 Poshmark（纳斯达克股票代码：POSH）、eBay、亚马逊和 (Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）) 等同行。Wish 的预计收入超过 30 亿美元，其市销率仅为 1.8 倍，仅为 eBay 当前估值的一半，远低于 Poshmark。目前的估计是，到 2025 年，收入将超过 60 亿美元，自由现金流将达到 10 亿美元，这意味着 Wish 的交易价格仅为自由现金流估计的 7 倍，即销售额的 1 倍。2021年初，其市盈率接近5倍，因此存在估值扩张的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What about the Lawsuits?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>诉讼呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.</p><p><blockquote>也许你已经看过关于集体诉讼的新闻（尤其是在雅虎财经上）。这些诉讼被广泛发布，以提醒投资者在近几个月股价下跌后挽回遭受的损失。当股票在短时间内大幅下跌时，此类诉讼并不罕见，投资者可能不会担心。这些诉讼还包括 CloverHealth（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）、Skillz（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SKLZ）、Array Technologies（纳斯达克股票代码：ARRY）等公司。</blockquote></p><p> Short Interest - Still High</p><p><blockquote>空头利息 - 仍然很高</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875b3fdaf74f1ef639b51d77a3aac01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Fintel</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Fintel</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.</p><p><blockquote>Wish 获得了散户投资者的巨大吸引力，因为投资者正在寻找下一次大规模的空头挤压。由于Wish的大部分股票仍被锁定，其确切的空头比率很难估计。根据Seeking Alpha的数据，目前的空头比率仅为7%，但这个数字可能会更高。根据彭博终端数据，上周其空头权益占其股本流通量的百分比约为 48%。Fintel 等其他来源将当前空头交易量固定在 20-30%。现在，很难给出一个准确的估计，但总的来说，大概在这个范围内的某个地方，很多空头评级还有待覆盖。从长远来看，高空头利息可能是一个优势，如果股票开始上涨，就会导致更快的加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> I believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.</p><p><blockquote>我相信Wish仍然是电子商务中最被低估的资产之一，其平台上每月拥有超过1亿用户，并连接了来自世界各地的数千家商家。移动购物应用程序仍然是该领域下载量最高的购物应用程序之一，并具有独特的价值主张，这比乍一看更智能。此外，其与 PrestaShop 的最新合作伙伴关系将使超过 300,000 家商家免费获得直接集成，将他们直接连接到 Wish 的商家仪表板，从而进一步推动增长。虽然 Wish 不完善的商业模式存在风险，例如盈利能力滞后，但耐心的投资者可能会获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish 股票：耐心的投资者可能很快就会再次看到 20 美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish 股票：耐心的投资者可能很快就会再次看到 20 美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 13:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.</li>  <li>Wish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.</li>  <li>While accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.</li>  <li>I believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>JuSun/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Wish (ContextLogic) 仍然是电子商务交易中最被低估的资产之一，远期销售额仅为 1.3 倍。</li><li>Wish与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将进一步加速国际扩张和增长计划。</li><li>虽然由于其大部分流通量仍被锁定，因此很难找到有关其空头权益的准确数据，但我估计空头权益在 30-40% 之间。</li><li>我认为，包括高营销支出和停滞不前的用户数量在内的熊市论点已经在当前的股价中形成。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JuSun/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> ContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.</p><p><blockquote>ContextLogic (WISH) 对股东来说是一次疯狂的旅程，因为最近几周高波动性继续导致价格大幅波动。该电子商务平台最初于 12 月以每股 20 美元的价格上市，但由于势头驱动的反弹，2 月份股价飙升至 32 美元的历史新高。尽管如此，此后股价一直在稳步暴跌，6 月份触及 7 美元的历史低点，但在零售交易行业兴趣增加后，股价现在正在迅速复苏。在这里，该股因其高波动性、短期利息和巨大的上涨潜力而受到青睐。</blockquote></p><p> In this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.</p><p><blockquote>在这种背景下，我认为高空头利息越来越多地将股价推至公允价值以下，耐心的投资者可能很快就会再次看到 20 美元或更高，因为该公司正在克服物流挑战，并将很快恢复规模经济。在这方面，电子商务平台具有独特的价值主张，并处于有利地位，可以在6万亿美元的电子商务行业中获得市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Digital Dollar Tree</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数字美元树</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.</p><p><blockquote>Wish 作为一个电子商务平台受到了严厉批评，我几乎可以说，迄今为止，它作为中国商家第三方“直运”网站的形象让投资者远离了该股票。然而，这可能只是部分正确。从本质上讲，Wish 通过低价（低质量）产品和可能导致长达数周的缓慢交货时间颠覆了亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）的商业模式。这是因为Wish不处理运输本身，这就是为什么它可以提供这些超低的价格，以2美元加2美元的运费提供一件连帽衫。</blockquote></p><p> Frankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>坦率地说，Wish仍然依赖中国商家，占其产品目录的大部分。考虑到大多数商品都是在中国生产的，因为生产成本是世界上最低的之一，这并不奇怪。亚马逊或 eBay（纳斯达克股票代码：eBay）上销售的大多数商品也是在中国生产的，尽管由于一日送达运输计划或更高的价格，它们获得了更高的知名度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bea733440e86851af57559c6a5fd6bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Now, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我把Wish看作是数字美元树，网上购物者可以在这里发现他们想要的而不是需要的商品。在这个过程中，客户对产品有了更多的耐心，愿意等待更长时间才能到货。随着其平台越来越受欢迎，Wish正在努力解决这两个问题（质量和商家多元化）。在这里，它一直在投资物流以提供更快的交付速度，物流收入同比增长 275% 就证明了这一点。由于这些收入提供的利润率较低，其整体毛利率也相应下降。然而，一旦该领域实现规模经济，利润率增长应该会逆转并回落至 70%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.</p><p><blockquote>它还通过不断扩大其国际商户基础来解决第二个问题。在这里，美国商家同比增长超过400%，其他国家也有类似的趋势。此外，它正在发展Wish Local，这是一项将本地企业连接到平台的服务，占所有Wish订单的7%。Wish local主要（或只）在美国有售，因此越来越多地与网站上的其他产品混合使用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09eb88453d075db6b7b8edd21f981b4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: Sensor Tower</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：传感器塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.</p><p><blockquote>我也喜欢Wish通过利用人工智能匹配系统来吸引和留住用户的策略，该系统优化了平台增长、用户体验和商家投资回报。创建交互式移动购物体验的策略似乎运行良好：令人印象深刻的是，Wish每天从用户那里获得超过50万条评论，在这方面甚至超过了亚马逊和其他购物网站，这表明了该平台的吸引力。大约80%的首次购物者会再次购买。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Wish能够在竞争激烈的电子商务市场中立足，为增长提供了巨大的跑道。目前，约40%的电子商务市场份额仅由亚马逊拥有。与亚马逊相比，其 TAM 可能有限，因为它专注于低收入市场，这也是它最初流行的原因。尽管如此，这仍然代表着 Wish 可以利用的价值 3 万亿美元的市场机会。还值得注意的是，据toreports报道，亚马逊试图以100亿美元收购Wish，但Wish拒绝了，认为将业务年销售额增长到1000亿美元，届时其估值将明显更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Negative Sentiment Baked In</b></p><p><blockquote><b>负面情绪持续存在</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.</p><p><blockquote>Wish 的前两个季度有点令人失望。虽然该公司轻松超出了收入预期，但为了投资物流，该公司烧掉了超过 3 亿美元的现金。然而，更重要的是，MAU 稳步下降，该公司将此归咎于公司在应对今年早些时候面临的物流挑战时不再强调广告和客户获取。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Year</td>    <td>2020</td>    <td>2019</td>    <td>2018</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revenue</td>    <td>$2.54B</td>    <td>$1.9B</td>    <td>$1.73B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Gross Profit</td>    <td>$1.59B</td>    <td>$1.46B</td>    <td>$1.45B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Sales and Marketing</b></td>    <td><b>$1.71B (+17%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.46B (-7%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.57B</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>MAUs</td>    <td>107M (+19%)</td>    <td>90M (+10%)</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td><td>2020</td><td>2019</td><td>2018</td></tr><tr><td>收入</td><td>$254B</td><td>19亿美元</td><td>17.3亿美元</td></tr><tr><td>毛利</td><td>15.9亿美元</td><td>14.6亿美元</td><td>14.5亿美元</td></tr><tr><td><b>销售及市场推广</b></td><td><b>17.1亿美元（+17%）</b></td><td><b>14.6亿美元（-7%）</b></td><td><b>$15.7B</b></td></tr><tr><td>老鼠</td><td>1.07亿（+19%）</td><td>90米（+10%）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>82M</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Active Buyers</b></td>    <td><b>64M (+3%)</b></td>    <td><b>62M (-3%)</b></td>    <td><b>64M</b></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> *Growth (Year-over-Year)</p><p><blockquote><td>82米</td><tr><td><b>活跃买家</b></td><td><b>6400万（+3%）</b></td><td><b>6200万（-3%）</b></td><td><b>64米</b></td></tr>*增长（同比）</blockquote></p><p> The largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.</p><p><blockquote>反对 Wish 的最大理由是其高昂的营销费用，占其总收入的 60%，毛利润的 100% 以上。这完全没问题，除非它通过营销来增加活跃买家，但不幸的是，情况并非如此。这是一个危险信号，令人质疑 Wish 商业模式的长期可持续性。然而，该公司的现金流已接近正，并表示如果不是因为大量的营销费用，它已经实现了盈利。也就是说，只要Wish获得新的MAU并通过物流服务增加价值，从长远来看，其营销费用就会得到回报。此外，Wish 的营销费用占总收入的比例已从上一年的 67% 降至 60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e18c23728274ee708d896923820b282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"278\"><span>Source: Wish IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Wish IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).</p><p><blockquote>就前景而言，这是该公司本质上强调的。它认为营销费用可以降至 40-45%，从而使 EBITDA 利润率在中点范围内达到 25%。如果它实现这些雄心勃勃的目标（这是很有可能的），其利润率将与 eBay 或 MercadoLibre（纳斯达克股票代码：MELI）相似。无论哪种方式，Wish 的商业模式都并不完美，但在我看来，所有这些担忧都不仅仅体现在其当前的估值中。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54029f94c37f301d26e93a11636280e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.</p><p><blockquote>即使在最近一次上涨 +50% 之后，股价仍然远远落后于 Poshmark（纳斯达克股票代码：POSH）、eBay、亚马逊和 (Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）) 等同行。Wish 的预计收入超过 30 亿美元，其市销率仅为 1.8 倍，仅为 eBay 当前估值的一半，远低于 Poshmark。目前的估计是，到 2025 年，收入将超过 60 亿美元，自由现金流将达到 10 亿美元，这意味着 Wish 的交易价格仅为自由现金流估计的 7 倍，即销售额的 1 倍。2021年初，其市盈率接近5倍，因此存在估值扩张的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What about the Lawsuits?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>诉讼呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.</p><p><blockquote>也许你已经看过关于集体诉讼的新闻（尤其是在雅虎财经上）。这些诉讼被广泛发布，以提醒投资者在近几个月股价下跌后挽回遭受的损失。当股票在短时间内大幅下跌时，此类诉讼并不罕见，投资者可能不会担心。这些诉讼还包括 CloverHealth（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）、Skillz（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SKLZ）、Array Technologies（纳斯达克股票代码：ARRY）等公司。</blockquote></p><p> Short Interest - Still High</p><p><blockquote>空头利息 - 仍然很高</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875b3fdaf74f1ef639b51d77a3aac01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Fintel</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Fintel</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.</p><p><blockquote>Wish 获得了散户投资者的巨大吸引力，因为投资者正在寻找下一次大规模的空头挤压。由于Wish的大部分股票仍被锁定，其确切的空头比率很难估计。根据Seeking Alpha的数据，目前的空头比率仅为7%，但这个数字可能会更高。根据彭博终端数据，上周其空头权益占其股本流通量的百分比约为 48%。Fintel 等其他来源将当前空头交易量固定在 20-30%。现在，很难给出一个准确的估计，但总的来说，大概在这个范围内的某个地方，很多空头评级还有待覆盖。从长远来看，高空头利息可能是一个优势，如果股票开始上涨，就会导致更快的加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> I believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.</p><p><blockquote>我相信Wish仍然是电子商务中最被低估的资产之一，其平台上每月拥有超过1亿用户，并连接了来自世界各地的数千家商家。移动购物应用程序仍然是该领域下载量最高的购物应用程序之一，并具有独特的价值主张，这比乍一看更智能。此外，其与 PrestaShop 的最新合作伙伴关系将使超过 300,000 家商家免费获得直接集成，将他们直接连接到 Wish 的商家仪表板，从而进一步推动增长。虽然 Wish 不完善的商业模式存在风险，例如盈利能力滞后，但耐心的投资者可能会获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148768572","content_text":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.\nWish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.\nWhile accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.\nI believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.\n\nJuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nOverview\nContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.\nIn this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.\nThe Digital Dollar Tree\nWish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.\nFrankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.\n\nNow, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.\nIt is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.\nSource: Sensor Tower\nI also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.\nWish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.\nNegative Sentiment Baked In\nWish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.\n\n\n\nYear\n2020\n2019\n2018\n\n\nRevenue\n$2.54B\n$1.9B\n$1.73B\n\n\nGross Profit\n$1.59B\n$1.46B\n$1.45B\n\n\nSales and Marketing\n$1.71B (+17%)\n$1.46B (-7%)\n$1.57B\n\n\nMAUs\n107M (+19%)\n90M (+10%)\n82M\n\n\nActive Buyers\n64M (+3%)\n62M (-3%)\n64M\n\n\n\n*Growth (Year-over-Year)\nThe largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.\nSource: Wish IR\nIn terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).\nData byYCharts\nEven after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.\nWhat about the Lawsuits?\nPerhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.\nShort Interest - Still High\nSource: Fintel\nWish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.\nThe Bottom Line\nI believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WISH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185860817,"gmtCreate":1623641451839,"gmtModify":1634030768044,"author":{"id":"3575639353998529","authorId":"3575639353998529","name":"Rahyenong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575639353998529","idStr":"3575639353998529"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185860817","repostId":"1163127718","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163127718","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623640604,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1163127718?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 11:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD’s stock has been left behind, but not for long — here’s why<blockquote>AMD 的股票已经落后，但不会持续太久--原因如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163127718","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Advanced Micro Devices has a slew of new cutting-edge products, not to mention a key acquisition, to","content":"<p>Advanced Micro Devices has a slew of new cutting-edge products, not to mention a key acquisition, to accelerate growth.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices 拥有一系列新的尖端产品，更不用说一项关键收购，以加速增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46f527aa40d36fd2c1a5697760ca79d\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>(GETTY IMAGES)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（盖蒂图片社）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Technology as a sector still looks like a buy after a recent rebound, but&nbsp;one chip stock stands out in particular.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的反弹之后，科技股作为一个板块看起来仍然值得买入，但有一只芯片股尤为突出。</blockquote></p><p> While the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;and Nvidia Corp.NVDAhave recovered from their May swoons, Advanced Micro Devices Inc.&nbsp;hasn’t yet fully rebounded. This makes the stock look like one to own, even though it is up 517% since I last suggested itin February 2017, compared with gains of 80% for the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and 140% for Nasdaq Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 iShares PHLX 半导体 ETF 和 Nvidia Corp.NVDA 已经从 5 月份的低迷中恢复过来，但 Advanced Micro Devices Inc. 尚未完全反弹。这使得该股看起来像是一只值得拥有的股票，尽管自我上次在 2017 年 2 月提出建议以来，它已经上涨了 517%，而标普500指数上涨了 80%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了 140%。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s take a look at why, and how AMD stacks up against competitors.</p><p><blockquote>让我们来看看为什么，以及 AMD 如何与竞争对手相比。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key dynamics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键动态</b></blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices designs central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs) used in data center servers, PCs and videogame consoles. That makes it a play on two of the biggest trends in tech right now — migration to the cloud and videogame hardware. Historically, the company lagged Intel Corp..But it has now surpassed its rival because of innovative chip designs and manufacturing issues at Intel.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices 设计用于数据中心服务器、PC 和视频游戏机的中央处理单元 (CPU) 和图形处理单元 (GPU)。这使得它迎合了目前技术的两个最大趋势——向云迁移和视频游戏硬件。从历史上看，该公司落后于英特尔公司..但由于英特尔的创新芯片设计和制造问题，它现在已经超过了竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past few years, AMD has rolled out highly competitive lines of chips, thanks to the leadership of CEO Lisa Su, who took the helm in 2014, says tech analyst Peter Karazeris at Thrivent. This put AMD back in the game. AMD’s EPYC series of processors for servers has been endorsed by broad usage among the main cloud providers — including Amazon Inc.,Alphabet Inc.,Microsoft Corp.,Oracle Corp.&nbsp;and Tencent Holdings Ltd.AMD’s Radeon GPUs for gaming hardware and its Ryzen line of chips used in PCs and laptops are equally successful.</p><p><blockquote>Thrivent 科技分析师 Peter Karazeris 表示，在过去几年中，AMD 推出了极具竞争力的芯片系列，这要归功于 2014 年上任的首席执行官 Lisa Su 的领导。这让AMD重新回到了游戏中。AMD 用于服务器的 EPYC 系列处理器已被主要云提供商广泛使用，包括亚马逊公司、Alphabet 公司、微软公司、甲骨文公司和腾讯控股控股有限公司。</blockquote></p><p> Besides better chip design, AMD has pulled ahead by drawing on advanced manufacturing capabilities of Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;Manufacturing Co. Ltd.,which can pack more punch in chips through the use of smaller, 7 nanometer transistors. Intel is stuck back at 10 nanometers.</p><p><blockquote>除了更好的芯片设计，AMD还通过利用台积电有限公司的先进制造能力取得了领先，该公司可以通过使用更小的7纳米晶体管在芯片中注入更多的冲击力。英特尔停留在10纳米。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s the upshot in all of this: AMD is a solid play on the megatrend of cloud computing and the related data center buildout. It’s a bet on the increasing complexity of artificial intelligence and big data analytics. And its GPU chips give Nvidia a run for the money. That makes AMD a play on the new Xbox and Sony PlayStation console upgrade cycle and the potential release of a new Nintendo Switch later this year. AMD is also now a serious contender in PCs and notebooks.</p><p><blockquote>这一切的结果如下： AMD 是云计算和相关数据中心建设大趋势的坚实基础。这是对人工智能和大数据分析日益复杂性的押注。它的 GPU 芯片让 Nvidia 物有所值。这使得 AMD 参与了新的 Xbox 和索尼 PlayStation 游戏机升级周期，以及今年晚些时候可能发布的新任天堂 Switch。AMD现在也是个人电脑和笔记本电脑领域的有力竞争者。</blockquote></p><p> “Our goal at AMD is to really be the leader in the high-performance computing wave,” says Su.</p><p><blockquote>“我们在 AMD 的目标是真正成为高性能计算浪潮中的领导者，”Su 说。</blockquote></p><p> She’s getting her way, and you can see the success in the numbers. First-quarter sales grew 93% year-over-year and 6% sequentially. AMD guided for 50% sales growth for the year, up from prior guidance of 37% growth.</p><p><blockquote>她正在如鱼得水，你可以从数字中看到成功。第一季度销售额同比增长 93%，环比增长 6%。AMD 预计今年销售额增长 50%，高于之前 37% 的增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe this guidance should be easily attainable, particularly as Intel deals with manufacturing challenges,” says Morningstar analyst Abhinav Davuluri.</p><p><blockquote>“晨星公司分析师阿比纳夫-达武鲁里（Abhinav Davuluri）说：”我们相信，这一指导应该很容易实现，尤其是在英特尔应对制造挑战的时候。</blockquote></p><p> In CPUs, sales are growing faster than those of the overall industry, which tells us AMD is gaining share from competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在 CPU 方面，销量增长速度快于整个行业，这告诉我们 AMD 正在从竞争对手那里获得份额。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect continued share growth through the balance of the year and into 2022,” says Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari, who has a buy rating and a $106 price target on AMD. The chip company is on Goldman’s “conviction list” of highly favored companies.</p><p><blockquote>“高盛分析师 Toshiya Hari 表示：”我们预计今年剩余时间和 2022 年的股价将持续增长，他对 AMD 给予买入评级，目标价为 106 美元。这家芯片公司在高盛备受青睐的 “定罪名单 ”上。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s how AMD stacks up against competitors in terms of growth in the most recent quarter, profit margins and valuation:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 AMD 在最近一个季度的增长、利润率和估值方面与竞争对手的比较情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc890546f0d4079834223660e88bc00d\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"387\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash and cash flow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金及现金流量</b></blockquote></p><p> Big cash positions and solid cash flow are positives for investors because they give companies freedom that comes from reliance on banks for financing. Strong cash positions also support investor-friendly moves, such as buybacks and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>大量现金头寸和稳定的现金流对投资者来说是积极的，因为它们为公司提供了依赖银行融资的自由。强劲的现金头寸也支持有利于投资者的举措，例如回购和股息。</blockquote></p><p> Thanks to all the growth, AMD’s cash position rose sharply last year to $2.3 billion, from $1.5 billion in 2019. AMD doesn’t pay a dividend, but its board recently approved a large $4 billion share repurchase. As the company’s first big return of cash to shareholders, this represents about 4% of AMD’s market capitalization. It also signals the company’s confidence in its business and ability to continue generating solid free cash flow despite rising concerns about intensifying competition, says Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore.</p><p><blockquote>得益于所有这些增长，AMD 去年的现金头寸从 2019 年的 15 亿美元大幅上升至 23 亿美元。AMD 不支付股息，但其董事会最近批准了一项价值 40 亿美元的大规模股票回购。作为该公司首次向股东返还巨额现金，约占 AMD 市值的 4%。德意志银行分析师罗斯-西莫尔（Ross Seymore）说，这也表明该公司对其业务充满信心，并有能力继续产生稳定的自由现金流，尽管人们越来越担心竞争加剧。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s a look at AMD’s cash position and cash flow&nbsp; growth, relative to competitors. The numbers for Marvell Technology Inc.&nbsp;are through Jan. 30, 2021. The rest are for the first quarter:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 AMD 相对于竞争对手的现金状况和现金流增长情况。Marvell Technology Inc.的数据截至2021年1月30日。其余的是第一季度：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798ea9650ce6e4247ba91b6912e48a82\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Global reach</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球影响力</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMD books sales in many regions. That’s a positive when global growth is as strong as it is now — lifted by $30 trillion in fiscal and monetary stimulus worldwide. Big exposure to China could be a risk because of U.S.-China tensions, but this issue seems to be diminishing a bit under President Biden, at least so far.</p><p><blockquote>AMD图书在许多地区的销售。在全球经济增长像现在这样强劲的情况下，这是一个积极因素--全球30万亿美元的财政和货币刺激措施推动了这一增长。由于美中关系紧张，大量接触中国可能是一种风险，但至少到目前为止，这个问题似乎在拜登总统的领导下有所减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04e42a7c55f914ecd7ddb2cbf8562253\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"772\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock valuation and performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票估值和表现</b></blockquote></p><p> By most measures, AMD is the second-priciest stock in its group. But given the growth, it’s justified.</p><p><blockquote>从大多数标准来看，AMD 是同类产品中第二贵的股票。但考虑到增长情况，这是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b26407edc4248424b878d3024bb9ac2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"550\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street’s opinion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街观点</b></blockquote></p><p> As a group, Wall Street analysts are predicting the biggest gains for AMD, among all the companies in its space. It’s also notable that only 61% of analysts have a buy rating, lower than the percentages for Nvidia, Broadcom Inc.,Marvell and Analog Devices Inc..For investors, this is a positive because it tells us there’s more room for sell-side analysts to turn bullish and drive their clients into the name.</p><p><blockquote>作为一个集团，华尔街分析师预测 AMD 的涨幅将是该领域所有公司中最大的。值得注意的是，只有 61% 的分析师给予买入评级，低于英伟达、博通公司、Marvell 和 Analog Devices Inc..的比例。对投资者来说，这是一个积极因素，因为它告诉我们卖方分析师有更大的空间转向看涨，并推动他们的客户买入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/995f76673215ab81971fbc2e8ace0641\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"551\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> One big risk for AMD is that Intel stages a comeback, notes Tony Wang, a tech analyst at T. Rowe Price. Intel has done so before. But AMD still has a few tricks up its sleeve.</p><p><blockquote>T. Rowe Price 的科技分析师 Tony Wang 指出，AMD 面临的一大风险是英特尔卷土重来。英特尔以前也这样做过。但是AMD仍然有一些诀窍。</blockquote></p><p> It recently launched a more advanced version of its EPYC processor, codenamed Milan. This line of server chips will ramp up sales in the second half of this year. AMD is making the leap to even more efficient 5 nanometer production with a line of chips dubbed Genoa, slated for release in 2022. These two rollouts will allow AMD to continue its market-share gains against competitors including Intel, says Jefferies analyst Mark&nbsp;Lipacis — one reason he has a “buy” rating and a $110 price target on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>它最近推出了EPYC处理器的更高级版本，代号为Milan。该系列服务器芯片将在今年下半年增加销量。AMD 正在通过名为 Genoa 的芯片系列实现更高效的 5 纳米生产，预计将于 2022 年发布。杰富瑞（Jefferies）分析师马克-利帕西斯（Mark Lipacis）表示，这两款产品的推出将使 AMD 能够继续在与包括英特尔在内的竞争对手的市场份额增长--这也是他给予该股 “买入 ”评级和 110 美元目标价的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> AMD is also rolling out next-generation GPUs based on its Compute DNA (CDNA)&nbsp;chip architecture, for use in data centers. And AMD’s merger with Xilinx Inc.&nbsp;later this year should help AMD produce even more sophisticated chips by incorporating Xilinx’s field-programmable gate array (FPGA) capabilities into its chip designs. FPGA gives customers more leeway to customize chips for their own needs.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 还推出了基于其计算 DNA (CDNA) 芯片架构的下一代 GPU，用于数据中心。今年晚些时候，AMD 与 Xilinx Inc. 将 Xilinx 的现场可编程门阵列 (FPGA) 功能融入其芯片设计中，从而帮助 AMD 生产出更复杂的芯片。FPGA为客户提供了更多的余地来根据自己的需求定制芯片。</blockquote></p><p> Other risks include the cyclical nature of the chip industry and the unpredictable demand from consumers and companies as economic growth rates change. One more threat is the broader adoption of competing chips based on ARM (advanced RISC machines) technology.</p><p><blockquote>其他风险包括芯片行业的周期性，以及随着经济增长率的变化，消费者和公司的需求不可预测。另一个威胁是基于ARM（先进RISC机器）技术的竞争芯片的更广泛采用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Important dates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>重要日期</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>July 26:</b>Second-quarter earnings release.</p><p><blockquote><b>7月26日：</b>第二季度收益发布。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oct. 25:</b>Third-quarter earnings release.</p><p><blockquote><b>10月25日：</b>第三季度收益发布。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD’s stock has been left behind, but not for long — here’s why<blockquote>AMD 的股票已经落后，但不会持续太久--原因如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD’s stock has been left behind, but not for long — here’s why<blockquote>AMD 的股票已经落后，但不会持续太久--原因如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 11:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Advanced Micro Devices has a slew of new cutting-edge products, not to mention a key acquisition, to accelerate growth.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices 拥有一系列新的尖端产品，更不用说一项关键收购，以加速增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46f527aa40d36fd2c1a5697760ca79d\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>(GETTY IMAGES)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（盖蒂图片社）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Technology as a sector still looks like a buy after a recent rebound, but&nbsp;one chip stock stands out in particular.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的反弹之后，科技股作为一个板块看起来仍然值得买入，但有一只芯片股尤为突出。</blockquote></p><p> While the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;and Nvidia Corp.NVDAhave recovered from their May swoons, Advanced Micro Devices Inc.&nbsp;hasn’t yet fully rebounded. This makes the stock look like one to own, even though it is up 517% since I last suggested itin February 2017, compared with gains of 80% for the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and 140% for Nasdaq Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 iShares PHLX 半导体 ETF 和 Nvidia Corp.NVDA 已经从 5 月份的低迷中恢复过来，但 Advanced Micro Devices Inc. 尚未完全反弹。这使得该股看起来像是一只值得拥有的股票，尽管自我上次在 2017 年 2 月提出建议以来，它已经上涨了 517%，而标普500指数上涨了 80%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了 140%。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s take a look at why, and how AMD stacks up against competitors.</p><p><blockquote>让我们来看看为什么，以及 AMD 如何与竞争对手相比。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key dynamics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键动态</b></blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices designs central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs) used in data center servers, PCs and videogame consoles. That makes it a play on two of the biggest trends in tech right now — migration to the cloud and videogame hardware. Historically, the company lagged Intel Corp..But it has now surpassed its rival because of innovative chip designs and manufacturing issues at Intel.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices 设计用于数据中心服务器、PC 和视频游戏机的中央处理单元 (CPU) 和图形处理单元 (GPU)。这使得它迎合了目前技术的两个最大趋势——向云迁移和视频游戏硬件。从历史上看，该公司落后于英特尔公司..但由于英特尔的创新芯片设计和制造问题，它现在已经超过了竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past few years, AMD has rolled out highly competitive lines of chips, thanks to the leadership of CEO Lisa Su, who took the helm in 2014, says tech analyst Peter Karazeris at Thrivent. This put AMD back in the game. AMD’s EPYC series of processors for servers has been endorsed by broad usage among the main cloud providers — including Amazon Inc.,Alphabet Inc.,Microsoft Corp.,Oracle Corp.&nbsp;and Tencent Holdings Ltd.AMD’s Radeon GPUs for gaming hardware and its Ryzen line of chips used in PCs and laptops are equally successful.</p><p><blockquote>Thrivent 科技分析师 Peter Karazeris 表示，在过去几年中，AMD 推出了极具竞争力的芯片系列，这要归功于 2014 年上任的首席执行官 Lisa Su 的领导。这让AMD重新回到了游戏中。AMD 用于服务器的 EPYC 系列处理器已被主要云提供商广泛使用，包括亚马逊公司、Alphabet 公司、微软公司、甲骨文公司和腾讯控股控股有限公司。</blockquote></p><p> Besides better chip design, AMD has pulled ahead by drawing on advanced manufacturing capabilities of Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;Manufacturing Co. Ltd.,which can pack more punch in chips through the use of smaller, 7 nanometer transistors. Intel is stuck back at 10 nanometers.</p><p><blockquote>除了更好的芯片设计，AMD还通过利用台积电有限公司的先进制造能力取得了领先，该公司可以通过使用更小的7纳米晶体管在芯片中注入更多的冲击力。英特尔停留在10纳米。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s the upshot in all of this: AMD is a solid play on the megatrend of cloud computing and the related data center buildout. It’s a bet on the increasing complexity of artificial intelligence and big data analytics. And its GPU chips give Nvidia a run for the money. That makes AMD a play on the new Xbox and Sony PlayStation console upgrade cycle and the potential release of a new Nintendo Switch later this year. AMD is also now a serious contender in PCs and notebooks.</p><p><blockquote>这一切的结果如下： AMD 是云计算和相关数据中心建设大趋势的坚实基础。这是对人工智能和大数据分析日益复杂性的押注。它的 GPU 芯片让 Nvidia 物有所值。这使得 AMD 参与了新的 Xbox 和索尼 PlayStation 游戏机升级周期，以及今年晚些时候可能发布的新任天堂 Switch。AMD现在也是个人电脑和笔记本电脑领域的有力竞争者。</blockquote></p><p> “Our goal at AMD is to really be the leader in the high-performance computing wave,” says Su.</p><p><blockquote>“我们在 AMD 的目标是真正成为高性能计算浪潮中的领导者，”Su 说。</blockquote></p><p> She’s getting her way, and you can see the success in the numbers. First-quarter sales grew 93% year-over-year and 6% sequentially. AMD guided for 50% sales growth for the year, up from prior guidance of 37% growth.</p><p><blockquote>她正在如鱼得水，你可以从数字中看到成功。第一季度销售额同比增长 93%，环比增长 6%。AMD 预计今年销售额增长 50%，高于之前 37% 的增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe this guidance should be easily attainable, particularly as Intel deals with manufacturing challenges,” says Morningstar analyst Abhinav Davuluri.</p><p><blockquote>“晨星公司分析师阿比纳夫-达武鲁里（Abhinav Davuluri）说：”我们相信，这一指导应该很容易实现，尤其是在英特尔应对制造挑战的时候。</blockquote></p><p> In CPUs, sales are growing faster than those of the overall industry, which tells us AMD is gaining share from competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在 CPU 方面，销量增长速度快于整个行业，这告诉我们 AMD 正在从竞争对手那里获得份额。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect continued share growth through the balance of the year and into 2022,” says Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari, who has a buy rating and a $106 price target on AMD. The chip company is on Goldman’s “conviction list” of highly favored companies.</p><p><blockquote>“高盛分析师 Toshiya Hari 表示：”我们预计今年剩余时间和 2022 年的股价将持续增长，他对 AMD 给予买入评级，目标价为 106 美元。这家芯片公司在高盛备受青睐的 “定罪名单 ”上。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s how AMD stacks up against competitors in terms of growth in the most recent quarter, profit margins and valuation:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 AMD 在最近一个季度的增长、利润率和估值方面与竞争对手的比较情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc890546f0d4079834223660e88bc00d\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"387\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash and cash flow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金及现金流量</b></blockquote></p><p> Big cash positions and solid cash flow are positives for investors because they give companies freedom that comes from reliance on banks for financing. Strong cash positions also support investor-friendly moves, such as buybacks and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>大量现金头寸和稳定的现金流对投资者来说是积极的，因为它们为公司提供了依赖银行融资的自由。强劲的现金头寸也支持有利于投资者的举措，例如回购和股息。</blockquote></p><p> Thanks to all the growth, AMD’s cash position rose sharply last year to $2.3 billion, from $1.5 billion in 2019. AMD doesn’t pay a dividend, but its board recently approved a large $4 billion share repurchase. As the company’s first big return of cash to shareholders, this represents about 4% of AMD’s market capitalization. It also signals the company’s confidence in its business and ability to continue generating solid free cash flow despite rising concerns about intensifying competition, says Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore.</p><p><blockquote>得益于所有这些增长，AMD 去年的现金头寸从 2019 年的 15 亿美元大幅上升至 23 亿美元。AMD 不支付股息，但其董事会最近批准了一项价值 40 亿美元的大规模股票回购。作为该公司首次向股东返还巨额现金，约占 AMD 市值的 4%。德意志银行分析师罗斯-西莫尔（Ross Seymore）说，这也表明该公司对其业务充满信心，并有能力继续产生稳定的自由现金流，尽管人们越来越担心竞争加剧。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s a look at AMD’s cash position and cash flow&nbsp; growth, relative to competitors. The numbers for Marvell Technology Inc.&nbsp;are through Jan. 30, 2021. The rest are for the first quarter:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 AMD 相对于竞争对手的现金状况和现金流增长情况。Marvell Technology Inc.的数据截至2021年1月30日。其余的是第一季度：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798ea9650ce6e4247ba91b6912e48a82\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Global reach</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球影响力</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMD books sales in many regions. That’s a positive when global growth is as strong as it is now — lifted by $30 trillion in fiscal and monetary stimulus worldwide. Big exposure to China could be a risk because of U.S.-China tensions, but this issue seems to be diminishing a bit under President Biden, at least so far.</p><p><blockquote>AMD图书在许多地区的销售。在全球经济增长像现在这样强劲的情况下，这是一个积极因素--全球30万亿美元的财政和货币刺激措施推动了这一增长。由于美中关系紧张，大量接触中国可能是一种风险，但至少到目前为止，这个问题似乎在拜登总统的领导下有所减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04e42a7c55f914ecd7ddb2cbf8562253\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"772\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock valuation and performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票估值和表现</b></blockquote></p><p> By most measures, AMD is the second-priciest stock in its group. But given the growth, it’s justified.</p><p><blockquote>从大多数标准来看，AMD 是同类产品中第二贵的股票。但考虑到增长情况，这是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b26407edc4248424b878d3024bb9ac2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"550\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street’s opinion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街观点</b></blockquote></p><p> As a group, Wall Street analysts are predicting the biggest gains for AMD, among all the companies in its space. It’s also notable that only 61% of analysts have a buy rating, lower than the percentages for Nvidia, Broadcom Inc.,Marvell and Analog Devices Inc..For investors, this is a positive because it tells us there’s more room for sell-side analysts to turn bullish and drive their clients into the name.</p><p><blockquote>作为一个集团，华尔街分析师预测 AMD 的涨幅将是该领域所有公司中最大的。值得注意的是，只有 61% 的分析师给予买入评级，低于英伟达、博通公司、Marvell 和 Analog Devices Inc..的比例。对投资者来说，这是一个积极因素，因为它告诉我们卖方分析师有更大的空间转向看涨，并推动他们的客户买入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/995f76673215ab81971fbc2e8ace0641\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"551\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> One big risk for AMD is that Intel stages a comeback, notes Tony Wang, a tech analyst at T. Rowe Price. Intel has done so before. But AMD still has a few tricks up its sleeve.</p><p><blockquote>T. Rowe Price 的科技分析师 Tony Wang 指出，AMD 面临的一大风险是英特尔卷土重来。英特尔以前也这样做过。但是AMD仍然有一些诀窍。</blockquote></p><p> It recently launched a more advanced version of its EPYC processor, codenamed Milan. This line of server chips will ramp up sales in the second half of this year. AMD is making the leap to even more efficient 5 nanometer production with a line of chips dubbed Genoa, slated for release in 2022. These two rollouts will allow AMD to continue its market-share gains against competitors including Intel, says Jefferies analyst Mark&nbsp;Lipacis — one reason he has a “buy” rating and a $110 price target on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>它最近推出了EPYC处理器的更高级版本，代号为Milan。该系列服务器芯片将在今年下半年增加销量。AMD 正在通过名为 Genoa 的芯片系列实现更高效的 5 纳米生产，预计将于 2022 年发布。杰富瑞（Jefferies）分析师马克-利帕西斯（Mark Lipacis）表示，这两款产品的推出将使 AMD 能够继续在与包括英特尔在内的竞争对手的市场份额增长--这也是他给予该股 “买入 ”评级和 110 美元目标价的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> AMD is also rolling out next-generation GPUs based on its Compute DNA (CDNA)&nbsp;chip architecture, for use in data centers. And AMD’s merger with Xilinx Inc.&nbsp;later this year should help AMD produce even more sophisticated chips by incorporating Xilinx’s field-programmable gate array (FPGA) capabilities into its chip designs. FPGA gives customers more leeway to customize chips for their own needs.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 还推出了基于其计算 DNA (CDNA) 芯片架构的下一代 GPU，用于数据中心。今年晚些时候，AMD 与 Xilinx Inc. 将 Xilinx 的现场可编程门阵列 (FPGA) 功能融入其芯片设计中，从而帮助 AMD 生产出更复杂的芯片。FPGA为客户提供了更多的余地来根据自己的需求定制芯片。</blockquote></p><p> Other risks include the cyclical nature of the chip industry and the unpredictable demand from consumers and companies as economic growth rates change. One more threat is the broader adoption of competing chips based on ARM (advanced RISC machines) technology.</p><p><blockquote>其他风险包括芯片行业的周期性，以及随着经济增长率的变化，消费者和公司的需求不可预测。另一个威胁是基于ARM（先进RISC机器）技术的竞争芯片的更广泛采用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Important dates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>重要日期</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>July 26:</b>Second-quarter earnings release.</p><p><blockquote><b>7月26日：</b>第二季度收益发布。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oct. 25:</b>Third-quarter earnings release.</p><p><blockquote><b>10月25日：</b>第三季度收益发布。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amds-stock-has-been-left-behind-but-not-for-long-heres-why-11623343634?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amds-stock-has-been-left-behind-but-not-for-long-heres-why-11623343634?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163127718","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices has a slew of new cutting-edge products, not to mention a key acquisition, to accelerate growth.\n(GETTY IMAGES)\nTechnology as a sector still looks like a buy after a recent rebound, but one chip stock stands out in particular.\nWhile the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF and Nvidia Corp.NVDAhave recovered from their May swoons, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. hasn’t yet fully rebounded. This makes the stock look like one to own, even though it is up 517% since I last suggested itin February 2017, compared with gains of 80% for the S&P 500 and 140% for Nasdaq Composite Index.\nLet’s take a look at why, and how AMD stacks up against competitors.\nKey dynamics\nAdvanced Micro Devices designs central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs) used in data center servers, PCs and videogame consoles. That makes it a play on two of the biggest trends in tech right now — migration to the cloud and videogame hardware. Historically, the company lagged Intel Corp..But it has now surpassed its rival because of innovative chip designs and manufacturing issues at Intel.\nOver the past few years, AMD has rolled out highly competitive lines of chips, thanks to the leadership of CEO Lisa Su, who took the helm in 2014, says tech analyst Peter Karazeris at Thrivent. This put AMD back in the game. AMD’s EPYC series of processors for servers has been endorsed by broad usage among the main cloud providers — including Amazon Inc.,Alphabet Inc.,Microsoft Corp.,Oracle Corp. and Tencent Holdings Ltd.AMD’s Radeon GPUs for gaming hardware and its Ryzen line of chips used in PCs and laptops are equally successful.\nBesides better chip design, AMD has pulled ahead by drawing on advanced manufacturing capabilities of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.,which can pack more punch in chips through the use of smaller, 7 nanometer transistors. Intel is stuck back at 10 nanometers.\nHere’s the upshot in all of this: AMD is a solid play on the megatrend of cloud computing and the related data center buildout. It’s a bet on the increasing complexity of artificial intelligence and big data analytics. And its GPU chips give Nvidia a run for the money. That makes AMD a play on the new Xbox and Sony PlayStation console upgrade cycle and the potential release of a new Nintendo Switch later this year. AMD is also now a serious contender in PCs and notebooks.\n“Our goal at AMD is to really be the leader in the high-performance computing wave,” says Su.\nShe’s getting her way, and you can see the success in the numbers. First-quarter sales grew 93% year-over-year and 6% sequentially. AMD guided for 50% sales growth for the year, up from prior guidance of 37% growth.\n“We believe this guidance should be easily attainable, particularly as Intel deals with manufacturing challenges,” says Morningstar analyst Abhinav Davuluri.\nIn CPUs, sales are growing faster than those of the overall industry, which tells us AMD is gaining share from competitors.\n“We expect continued share growth through the balance of the year and into 2022,” says Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari, who has a buy rating and a $106 price target on AMD. The chip company is on Goldman’s “conviction list” of highly favored companies.\nHere’s how AMD stacks up against competitors in terms of growth in the most recent quarter, profit margins and valuation:\n(FACTSET)\nCash and cash flow\nBig cash positions and solid cash flow are positives for investors because they give companies freedom that comes from reliance on banks for financing. Strong cash positions also support investor-friendly moves, such as buybacks and dividends.\nThanks to all the growth, AMD’s cash position rose sharply last year to $2.3 billion, from $1.5 billion in 2019. AMD doesn’t pay a dividend, but its board recently approved a large $4 billion share repurchase. As the company’s first big return of cash to shareholders, this represents about 4% of AMD’s market capitalization. It also signals the company’s confidence in its business and ability to continue generating solid free cash flow despite rising concerns about intensifying competition, says Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore.\nHere’s a look at AMD’s cash position and cash flow  growth, relative to competitors. The numbers for Marvell Technology Inc. are through Jan. 30, 2021. The rest are for the first quarter:\n(FACTSET)\nGlobal reach\nAMD books sales in many regions. That’s a positive when global growth is as strong as it is now — lifted by $30 trillion in fiscal and monetary stimulus worldwide. Big exposure to China could be a risk because of U.S.-China tensions, but this issue seems to be diminishing a bit under President Biden, at least so far.\n(FACTSET)\nStock valuation and performance\nBy most measures, AMD is the second-priciest stock in its group. But given the growth, it’s justified.\n(FACTSET)\nWall Street’s opinion\nAs a group, Wall Street analysts are predicting the biggest gains for AMD, among all the companies in its space. It’s also notable that only 61% of analysts have a buy rating, lower than the percentages for Nvidia, Broadcom Inc.,Marvell and Analog Devices Inc..For investors, this is a positive because it tells us there’s more room for sell-side analysts to turn bullish and drive their clients into the name.\n(FACTSET)\nRisks\nOne big risk for AMD is that Intel stages a comeback, notes Tony Wang, a tech analyst at T. Rowe Price. Intel has done so before. But AMD still has a few tricks up its sleeve.\nIt recently launched a more advanced version of its EPYC processor, codenamed Milan. This line of server chips will ramp up sales in the second half of this year. AMD is making the leap to even more efficient 5 nanometer production with a line of chips dubbed Genoa, slated for release in 2022. These two rollouts will allow AMD to continue its market-share gains against competitors including Intel, says Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis — one reason he has a “buy” rating and a $110 price target on the stock.\nAMD is also rolling out next-generation GPUs based on its Compute DNA (CDNA) chip architecture, for use in data centers. And AMD’s merger with Xilinx Inc. later this year should help AMD produce even more sophisticated chips by incorporating Xilinx’s field-programmable gate array (FPGA) capabilities into its chip designs. FPGA gives customers more leeway to customize chips for their own needs.\nOther risks include the cyclical nature of the chip industry and the unpredictable demand from consumers and companies as economic growth rates change. One more threat is the broader adoption of competing chips based on ARM (advanced RISC machines) technology.\nImportant dates\nJuly 26:Second-quarter earnings release.\nOct. 25:Third-quarter earnings release.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182126413,"gmtCreate":1623558791332,"gmtModify":1634031702197,"author":{"id":"3575639353998529","authorId":"3575639353998529","name":"Rahyenong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575639353998529","idStr":"3575639353998529"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182126413","repostId":"2143788707","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182126080,"gmtCreate":1623558776940,"gmtModify":1634031702792,"author":{"id":"3575639353998529","authorId":"3575639353998529","name":"Rahyenong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575639353998529","idStr":"3575639353998529"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182126080","repostId":"2143788707","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186132138,"gmtCreate":1623477543424,"gmtModify":1634032575913,"author":{"id":"3575639353998529","authorId":"3575639353998529","name":"Rahyenong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575639353998529","idStr":"3575639353998529"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186132138","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188660790,"gmtCreate":1623432983010,"gmtModify":1634033209215,"author":{"id":"3575639353998529","authorId":"3575639353998529","name":"Rahyenong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575639353998529","idStr":"3575639353998529"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188660790","repostId":"1114257617","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114257617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623425495,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1114257617?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉到来：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录的崩溃</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114257617","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on","content":"<p>For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get&nbsp; (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming that<i>the Fed is wrong</i>, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn<i>\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，我们一直在警告价格飙升对企业（“系好安全带!通货膨胀来了!”）和消费者（“这不是暂时的”：对恶性通货膨胀的担忧正在美国各地飙升”），甚至促使原本无聊的卖方研究变得（超级）令人兴奋，德意志银行（本周警告称“通货膨胀即将爆发”，让全球经济坐在定时炸弹上”）和美国银行（“刚刚对美联储的“暂时”论点呕吐”）现在公开声称<i>美联储错了</i>美国正面临一个前所未有的高得多的非暂时性通货膨胀时期，DB甚至走向towarn<i>“政策制定者将面临自 20 世纪 80 年代沃尔克/里根时期以来最具挑战性的几年。”</i></blockquote></p><p> But none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>但这一切都没有吓到美联储承认或相信通货膨胀只是暂时的。也许就这一次，美联储说得有道理，因为在其他条件相同的情况下，我们指的是工资没有上涨，解决物价上涨的最佳方法是，嗯……更高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Presenting Exhibit A</b>: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.</p><p><blockquote><b>展示附件A</b>: 两周前，我们观察到，预计拜登的低迷财富将会结束，而且他们很快就将不得不再次量入为出，根据世界大型企业联合会的衡量，美国人的购买意愿（从今天起 6 个月）在 3 个主要支出类别中大幅下降：家庭、汽车和主要家用电器。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/440125680ea111da38a7c9adbc47f811\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...</p><p><blockquote>降幅如此之大，以至于成为一个月来购买电器意向的最大降幅……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483ef9fdbbe4fe34fc94863262839a85\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... and homes...</p><p><blockquote>...和家……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea40a948d838e7eaa00fbde1f60e1906\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.</p><p><blockquote>这证实了之前所说的，即购房者信心崩溃（由于创纪录的房价）和房屋建筑商信心飙升（也由于创纪录的房价）之间的创纪录差异。猜猜最后哪一个会很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a49f04b77740aab4ba75d00085dd8ada\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to today when we just got<b>Exhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.</b></p><p><blockquote>快进到今天，当我们刚刚<b>附件B：6月密歇根情绪调查。</b></blockquote></p><p> While there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...</p><p><blockquote>虽然这里有一些好消息，但1年和5-10年展望期的通胀预期都略有下降……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0cf98553bfedc6500457c9aa3cbe0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.</p><p><blockquote>...我们发现更令人担忧的是首席经济学家理查德·科廷（Richard Curtin）所说的，即由于“通胀上升仍然是消费者最关心的问题”，房屋、汽车和家用耐用品市场价格的自发参考跌至自1974年11月创下历史最高纪录以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> And as Curtin adds, \"<b>these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.</b>These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如科廷补充道，“<b>这些对市场价格的不利看法将汽车和住宅的总体购买态度降至1982年以来的最低点。</b>这些下降在收入排名前三分之一的人群中尤为明显，他们占零售额的一半以上。”</blockquote></p><p> This can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.</p><p><blockquote>这可以从下图中看出，该图显示了由于房屋、耐用品和汽车价格高企而导致的“糟糕的购买条件”的全面记录。换句话说，由于物价飞涨，美国正在进行买家罢工。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46f5f27af1090c20579d573274a9f52\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This, for better or worse,<b>screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,</b>as Curting elaborates:</p><p><blockquote>不管是好是坏，<b>不仅是滞胀，还有永久性的物价上涨，</b>正如柯廷所阐述的那样：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.</i>   <i><b>The acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.</b></i>  The problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.</p><p><blockquote><i>...随着疫情的出现，由于被压抑的需求和创纪录的储蓄以及就业和收入前景的改善，消费者对价格的敏感度暂时降低了。</i><i><b>如果退出时间很长，接受疫情导致的价格上涨使得通货膨胀心理更有可能获得立足点。</b></i>问题是：stimmies迟早会结束，但到那时价格已经固定在更高的位置，祝你好运试图将它们拉低。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   <i>While expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.</i>  Oh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.</p><p><blockquote><i>虽然扩张性货币和财政政策仍然有必要，但随之而来的通货膨胀上升将导致分配不均的影响。6月份，老年人和低收入家庭已经注意到了这些影响。美联储政策语言的转变可能会平息任何初期的通胀心理，这对消费者来说并不奇怪，因为三分之二的人已经预计未来一年利率会上升。</i>哦，对于那些说工资上涨可能是永久性的人来说，我们有一些坏消息：雇主们非常清楚，延长的失业救济金繁荣将在9月份结束，届时数百万目前失业的工人将涌回劳动力大军，导致工资大幅下降，这就是为什么大多数潜在雇主没有提高基本工资，而是提供一次性奖金，顾名思义，这是一次性的。至于更高的工资压力，嗯……只要等到10月份一切都逆转，山姆大叔就不再是美国私营部门薪酬更高的竞争对手，工资也会暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> What does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.</p><p><blockquote>这对经济意味着什么？好吧，所有那些习惯于抑制需求并大幅提高价格的生产商和零售商将面临一个严峻的选择：要么直接降低价格，要么大幅减少销售商品和服务。或者只是等待下一次救助。</blockquote></p><p> One thing is certain:<b>six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.</b></p><p><blockquote>有一点是肯定的：<b>从今天起六个月后，美国经济将会丑陋得多。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉到来：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录的崩溃</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉到来：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录的崩溃</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 23:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get&nbsp; (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming that<i>the Fed is wrong</i>, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn<i>\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，我们一直在警告价格飙升对企业（“系好安全带!通货膨胀来了!”）和消费者（“这不是暂时的”：对恶性通货膨胀的担忧正在美国各地飙升”），甚至促使原本无聊的卖方研究变得（超级）令人兴奋，德意志银行（本周警告称“通货膨胀即将爆发”，让全球经济坐在定时炸弹上”）和美国银行（“刚刚对美联储的“暂时”论点呕吐”）现在公开声称<i>美联储错了</i>美国正面临一个前所未有的高得多的非暂时性通货膨胀时期，DB甚至走向towarn<i>“政策制定者将面临自 20 世纪 80 年代沃尔克/里根时期以来最具挑战性的几年。”</i></blockquote></p><p> But none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>但这一切都没有吓到美联储承认或相信通货膨胀只是暂时的。也许就这一次，美联储说得有道理，因为在其他条件相同的情况下，我们指的是工资没有上涨，解决物价上涨的最佳方法是，嗯……更高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Presenting Exhibit A</b>: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.</p><p><blockquote><b>展示附件A</b>: 两周前，我们观察到，预计拜登的低迷财富将会结束，而且他们很快就将不得不再次量入为出，根据世界大型企业联合会的衡量，美国人的购买意愿（从今天起 6 个月）在 3 个主要支出类别中大幅下降：家庭、汽车和主要家用电器。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/440125680ea111da38a7c9adbc47f811\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...</p><p><blockquote>降幅如此之大，以至于成为一个月来购买电器意向的最大降幅……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483ef9fdbbe4fe34fc94863262839a85\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... and homes...</p><p><blockquote>...和家……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea40a948d838e7eaa00fbde1f60e1906\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.</p><p><blockquote>这证实了之前所说的，即购房者信心崩溃（由于创纪录的房价）和房屋建筑商信心飙升（也由于创纪录的房价）之间的创纪录差异。猜猜最后哪一个会很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a49f04b77740aab4ba75d00085dd8ada\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to today when we just got<b>Exhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.</b></p><p><blockquote>快进到今天，当我们刚刚<b>附件B：6月密歇根情绪调查。</b></blockquote></p><p> While there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...</p><p><blockquote>虽然这里有一些好消息，但1年和5-10年展望期的通胀预期都略有下降……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0cf98553bfedc6500457c9aa3cbe0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.</p><p><blockquote>...我们发现更令人担忧的是首席经济学家理查德·科廷（Richard Curtin）所说的，即由于“通胀上升仍然是消费者最关心的问题”，房屋、汽车和家用耐用品市场价格的自发参考跌至自1974年11月创下历史最高纪录以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> And as Curtin adds, \"<b>these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.</b>These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如科廷补充道，“<b>这些对市场价格的不利看法将汽车和住宅的总体购买态度降至1982年以来的最低点。</b>这些下降在收入排名前三分之一的人群中尤为明显，他们占零售额的一半以上。”</blockquote></p><p> This can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.</p><p><blockquote>这可以从下图中看出，该图显示了由于房屋、耐用品和汽车价格高企而导致的“糟糕的购买条件”的全面记录。换句话说，由于物价飞涨，美国正在进行买家罢工。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46f5f27af1090c20579d573274a9f52\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This, for better or worse,<b>screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,</b>as Curting elaborates:</p><p><blockquote>不管是好是坏，<b>不仅是滞胀，还有永久性的物价上涨，</b>正如柯廷所阐述的那样：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.</i>   <i><b>The acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.</b></i>  The problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.</p><p><blockquote><i>...随着疫情的出现，由于被压抑的需求和创纪录的储蓄以及就业和收入前景的改善，消费者对价格的敏感度暂时降低了。</i><i><b>如果退出时间很长，接受疫情导致的价格上涨使得通货膨胀心理更有可能获得立足点。</b></i>问题是：stimmies迟早会结束，但到那时价格已经固定在更高的位置，祝你好运试图将它们拉低。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   <i>While expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.</i>  Oh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.</p><p><blockquote><i>虽然扩张性货币和财政政策仍然有必要，但随之而来的通货膨胀上升将导致分配不均的影响。6月份，老年人和低收入家庭已经注意到了这些影响。美联储政策语言的转变可能会平息任何初期的通胀心理，这对消费者来说并不奇怪，因为三分之二的人已经预计未来一年利率会上升。</i>哦，对于那些说工资上涨可能是永久性的人来说，我们有一些坏消息：雇主们非常清楚，延长的失业救济金繁荣将在9月份结束，届时数百万目前失业的工人将涌回劳动力大军，导致工资大幅下降，这就是为什么大多数潜在雇主没有提高基本工资，而是提供一次性奖金，顾名思义，这是一次性的。至于更高的工资压力，嗯……只要等到10月份一切都逆转，山姆大叔就不再是美国私营部门薪酬更高的竞争对手，工资也会暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> What does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.</p><p><blockquote>这对经济意味着什么？好吧，所有那些习惯于抑制需求并大幅提高价格的生产商和零售商将面临一个严峻的选择：要么直接降低价格，要么大幅减少销售商品和服务。或者只是等待下一次救助。</blockquote></p><p> One thing is certain:<b>six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.</b></p><p><blockquote>有一点是肯定的：<b>从今天起六个月后，美国经济将会丑陋得多。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114257617","content_text":"For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get  (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming thatthe Fed is wrong, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"\nBut none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.\nPresenting Exhibit A: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.\n\nThe drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...\n\n... and homes...\n\nThis confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.\n\nFast forward to today when we just gotExhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.\nWhile there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...\n\n... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.\nAnd as Curtin adds, \"these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"\nThis can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.\n\nThis, for better or worse,screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,as Curting elaborates:\n\n... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.\nThe acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.\n\nThe problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.\n\nWhile expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.\n\nOh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.\nWhat does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.\nOne thing is certain:six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183363054,"gmtCreate":1623308592478,"gmtModify":1634034723147,"author":{"id":"3575639353998529","authorId":"3575639353998529","name":"Rahyenong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575639353998529","idStr":"3575639353998529"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woww","listText":"Woww","text":"Woww","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183363054","repostId":"2142024176","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2767,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116813232,"gmtCreate":1622787091626,"gmtModify":1634097996288,"author":{"id":"3575639353998529","authorId":"3575639353998529","name":"Rahyenong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575639353998529","idStr":"3575639353998529"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116813232","repostId":"2140026421","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}