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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-17
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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-16
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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-16
  Wow
  Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote>
  Summary Wish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce tradi
  Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote>
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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-14
  Wow
  AMD’s stock has been left behind, but not for long — here’s why<blockquote>AMD的股票已经落后，但不会太久——原因如下</blockquote>
  Advanced Micro Devices has a slew of new cutting-edge products, not to mention a key acquisition, to
  AMD’s stock has been left behind, but not for long — here’s why<blockquote>AMD的股票已经落后，但不会太久——原因如下</blockquote>
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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-13
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-13
  Wow
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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-12
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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-12
  Wow
  The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉来了：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录崩溃</blockquote>
  For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on
  The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉来了：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录崩溃</blockquote>
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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-10
  Woww
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- RahyenongRahyenong
  ·2021-06-04
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13:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148768572","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce tradi","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.</li>  <li>Wish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.</li>  <li>While accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.</li>  <li>I believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>JuSun/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Wish(ContextLogic)仍然是电子商务交易中最被低估的资产之一，其远期EV与销售额之比仅为1.3倍。</li><li>Wish与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将进一步加速国际扩张和增长计划。</li><li>虽然很难找到有关其空头利息的准确数据，因为其大部分流通量仍被锁定，但我估计空头利息在30-40%之间。</li><li>我相信，包括高额营销支出和用户数量停滞在内的看跌论点已经在当前股价中根深蒂固。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JuSun/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> ContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.</p><p><blockquote>ContextLogic(WISH)对股东来说是一段疯狂的旅程，因为最近几周高波动性继续导致价格大幅波动。该电子商务平台最初于12月以每股20美元的价格上市，随后由于势头驱动的反弹，在2月份飙升至32美元的历史高点。尽管如此，自那以后，股价稳步暴跌，在6月份触及仅7美元的历史低点，但在零售交易部门的兴趣增加后，现在正在迅速复苏。在这里，该股因其高波动性、空头兴趣和巨大的上涨潜力而受到青睐。</blockquote></p><p> In this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，我认为高空头兴趣越来越多地将股价推至公允价值以下，耐心的投资者可能很快就会再次看到20美元或更多，因为该公司正在应对物流挑战，并将很快恢复规模经济。在这方面，该电子商务平台具有独特的价值主张，并处于有利地位，可以在6万亿美元的电子商务行业中获得市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Digital Dollar Tree</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数字美元树</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.</p><p><blockquote>Wish作为一个电子商务平台受到了严厉批评，我几乎可以说，它作为中国商家第三方“直运”网站的形象让投资者迄今为止远离了该股。然而，这可能只是部分正确。从本质上讲，Wish通过低价（低质量）产品和缓慢的交付时间（可能导致长达一周的交付时间）扭转了亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）的商业模式。这是因为Wish本身不处理运输，这就是为什么它可以提供这些超低价格，提供2美元加2美元运费的连帽衫。</blockquote></p><p> Frankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>坦率地说，Wish仍然依赖中国商家，占其产品目录的大部分。考虑到大多数商品都是在中国生产的，因为生产成本是世界上最低的之一，这并不奇怪。亚马逊或eBay（纳斯达克：eBay）上销售的大多数商品也是在中国生产的，尽管由于一日送达计划或更高的价格，它们获得了更高的认知度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bea733440e86851af57559c6a5fd6bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Now, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我将Wish视为数字美元树，在线购物者在这里发现他们想要而不是需要的商品。在这个过程中，客户对产品更有耐心，愿意等待更长时间才能到货。随着其平台越来越受欢迎，Wish正在努力解决这两个问题（质量和商家多元化）。在这里，它一直在投资物流以提供更快的交付，物流收入同比增长275%就证明了这一点。由于这些收入的利润率较低，其整体毛利率也相应下降。然而，一旦该领域实现规模经济，利润率增长应该会逆转并回落至70%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.</p><p><blockquote>它还通过不断扩大其国际商户基础来解决第二个问题。在这里，美国商家同比增长超过400%，在其他国家也可以看到类似的趋势。此外，它正在增长Wish Local，这是一项将本地企业与平台连接起来的服务，占所有Wish订单的7%。Wish local主要（或专门）在美国销售，因此越来越多地与网站上的其他产品混合在一起。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09eb88453d075db6b7b8edd21f981b4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: Sensor Tower</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：传感器塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.</p><p><blockquote>我还喜欢Wish通过利用人工智能匹配系统来吸引和留住用户的策略，该系统可以优化平台增长、用户体验和商家投资回报。创造互动移动购物体验的策略似乎运作良好：令人印象深刻的是，Wish每天从用户那里获得超过50万条评论，在这方面甚至超过了亚马逊和其他购物网站，展示了该平台的吸引力。大约80%的首次购物者会再次购买。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Wish能够在竞争激烈的电子商务市场中站稳脚跟，为其提供了巨大的增长空间。目前，大约40%的电子商务市场份额仅由亚马逊拥有。与亚马逊相比，其TAM可能有限，因为它专注于低收入利基市场，这也是它最初受欢迎的原因。尽管如此，这仍为Wish提供了超过3万亿美元的市场机会。还值得注意的是，据报道，亚马逊试图以100亿美元收购Wish，但Wish拒绝了，认为该业务的年销售额将增长到1000亿美元，届时其估值将明显更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Negative Sentiment Baked In</b></p><p><blockquote><b>负面情绪根深蒂固</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.</p><p><blockquote>Wish的前两个季度有点令人失望。虽然该公司轻松超出了收入预期，但为了投资物流，该公司消耗了超过3亿美元的现金。然而，更重要的是，月活跃用户数稳步下降，该公司将此归咎于该公司在应对今年早些时候面临的物流挑战时不再重视广告和客户获取。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Year</td>    <td>2020</td>    <td>2019</td>    <td>2018</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revenue</td>    <td>$2.54B</td>    <td>$1.9B</td>    <td>$1.73B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Gross Profit</td>    <td>$1.59B</td>    <td>$1.46B</td>    <td>$1.45B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Sales and Marketing</b></td>    <td><b>$1.71B (+17%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.46B (-7%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.57B</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>MAUs</td>    <td>107M (+19%)</td>    <td>90M (+10%)</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td><td>2020</td><td>2019</td><td>2018</td></tr><tr><td>收入</td><td>$2.54 B</td><td>19亿美元</td><td>$1.73 B</td></tr><tr><td>毛利</td><td>$1.59 B</td><td>$1.46 B</td><td>$1.45 B</td></tr><tr><td><b>销售及市场推广</b></td><td><b>$17.1亿(+17%)</b></td><td><b>$1.46 B(-7%)</b></td><td><b>$1.57 B</b></td></tr><tr><td>老鼠</td><td>1.07亿(+19%)</td><td>9000万(+10%)</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>82M</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Active Buyers</b></td>    <td><b>64M (+3%)</b></td>    <td><b>62M (-3%)</b></td>    <td><b>64M</b></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> *Growth (Year-over-Year)</p><p><blockquote><td>82M</td><tr><td><b>活跃买家</b></td><td><b>6400万(+3%)</b></td><td><b>6200万(-3%)</b></td><td><b>64M</b></td></tr>*增长（同比）</blockquote></p><p> The largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.</p><p><blockquote>Wish最大的看跌理由是其高昂的营销费用，占其总收入的60%和毛利润的100%以上。这完全没问题，除非它通过营销增加活跃买家，不幸的是事实并非如此。这是一个危险信号，并质疑Wish商业模式的长期可持续性。然而，该公司一直接近正现金流，并表示如果不是因为其大量的营销费用，它已经实现了盈利。也就是说，只要Wish获得新的月活跃用户并通过物流服务增加价值，从长远来看，其营销费用就会得到回报。此外，Wish的营销费用占总收入的比例已从上年的67%降至60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e18c23728274ee708d896923820b282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"278\"><span>Source: Wish IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Wish IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).</p><p><blockquote>就前景而言，这就是该公司本质上强调的。它相信营销费用可以降低到40-45%，从而使EBITDA利润率达到25%的中点范围。如果它实现了这些雄心勃勃的目标（这很有可能），其利润率将与eBay或MercadoLibre（纳斯达克：MELI）相似。不管怎样，Wish的商业模式并不完美，但在我看来（在我看来），所有这些担忧都不仅仅体现在其当前的估值中。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54029f94c37f301d26e93a11636280e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.</p><p><blockquote>即使在最近上涨了50%以上之后，股价仍然远远落后于Poshmark（纳斯达克股票代码：POSH）、eBay、Amazon和（Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP））等同行。Wish的预计收入超过30亿美元，其市销率仅为1.8倍，仅为eBay当前估值的一半，远低于Poshmark。目前的估计是，到2025年，收入将超过60亿美元，自由现金流将达到10亿美元，这意味着Wish的交易价格仅为自由现金流估计的7倍，即销售额的1倍。2021年初，其市盈率接近5倍，估值存在扩张潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What about the Lawsuits?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>诉讼呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.</p><p><blockquote>也许你已经看过关于集体诉讼的新闻（尤其是在雅虎财经上）。这些诉讼被广泛发布，以提醒投资者在近几个月股价下跌后挽回损失。当股票在短时间内大幅下跌并且投资者可能不关心时，此类诉讼并不罕见。这些诉讼还包括CloverHealth（纳斯达克：CLOV）、Skillz（纽约证券交易所：SKLZ）、Array Technologies（纳斯达克：ARRY）等公司。</blockquote></p><p> Short Interest - Still High</p><p><blockquote>空头利息——仍然很高</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875b3fdaf74f1ef639b51d77a3aac01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Fintel</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Fintel</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.</p><p><blockquote>Wish已经获得了散户投资者的巨大吸引力，因为投资者正在寻找下一次大的轧空。由于Wish的大部分股票仍被锁定，其确切的做空比率很难估计。根据Seeking Alpha的数据，目前的空头比率仅为7%，但这个数字可能会更高。根据彭博终端数据，上周其空头权益占其流通股的百分比约为48%。Fintel等其他消息来源将当前的空头量确定为20-30%。现在，很难给出一个确切的估计，但总体来说，很可能在这个范围内的某个地方，许多空头评级仍有待回补。从长远来看，高空头兴趣可能是一个优势，如果股票开始呈上升趋势，就会导致更快的加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> I believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.</p><p><blockquote>我相信Wish仍然是电子商务中最被低估的资产之一，其平台上拥有超过1亿的月用户，并连接了来自世界各地的数千家商家。移动购物应用程序仍然是该领域下载量最高的购物应用程序之一，并具有独特的价值主张，比乍一看更智能。此外，其与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将为超过300,000家商家提供免费的直接集成，将他们直接连接到Wish的商家仪表板，从而进一步推动增长。尽管Wish不完善的商业模式存在盈利能力滞后等风险，但耐心的投资者可能会获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 13:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.</li>  <li>Wish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.</li>  <li>While accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.</li>  <li>I believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>JuSun/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Wish(ContextLogic)仍然是电子商务交易中最被低估的资产之一，其远期EV与销售额之比仅为1.3倍。</li><li>Wish与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将进一步加速国际扩张和增长计划。</li><li>虽然很难找到有关其空头利息的准确数据，因为其大部分流通量仍被锁定，但我估计空头利息在30-40%之间。</li><li>我相信，包括高额营销支出和用户数量停滞在内的看跌论点已经在当前股价中根深蒂固。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JuSun/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> ContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.</p><p><blockquote>ContextLogic(WISH)对股东来说是一段疯狂的旅程，因为最近几周高波动性继续导致价格大幅波动。该电子商务平台最初于12月以每股20美元的价格上市，随后由于势头驱动的反弹，在2月份飙升至32美元的历史高点。尽管如此，自那以后，股价稳步暴跌，在6月份触及仅7美元的历史低点，但在零售交易部门的兴趣增加后，现在正在迅速复苏。在这里，该股因其高波动性、空头兴趣和巨大的上涨潜力而受到青睐。</blockquote></p><p> In this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，我认为高空头兴趣越来越多地将股价推至公允价值以下，耐心的投资者可能很快就会再次看到20美元或更多，因为该公司正在应对物流挑战，并将很快恢复规模经济。在这方面，该电子商务平台具有独特的价值主张，并处于有利地位，可以在6万亿美元的电子商务行业中获得市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Digital Dollar Tree</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数字美元树</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.</p><p><blockquote>Wish作为一个电子商务平台受到了严厉批评，我几乎可以说，它作为中国商家第三方“直运”网站的形象让投资者迄今为止远离了该股。然而，这可能只是部分正确。从本质上讲，Wish通过低价（低质量）产品和缓慢的交付时间（可能导致长达一周的交付时间）扭转了亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）的商业模式。这是因为Wish本身不处理运输，这就是为什么它可以提供这些超低价格，提供2美元加2美元运费的连帽衫。</blockquote></p><p> Frankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>坦率地说，Wish仍然依赖中国商家，占其产品目录的大部分。考虑到大多数商品都是在中国生产的，因为生产成本是世界上最低的之一，这并不奇怪。亚马逊或eBay（纳斯达克：eBay）上销售的大多数商品也是在中国生产的，尽管由于一日送达计划或更高的价格，它们获得了更高的认知度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bea733440e86851af57559c6a5fd6bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Now, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我将Wish视为数字美元树，在线购物者在这里发现他们想要而不是需要的商品。在这个过程中，客户对产品更有耐心，愿意等待更长时间才能到货。随着其平台越来越受欢迎，Wish正在努力解决这两个问题（质量和商家多元化）。在这里，它一直在投资物流以提供更快的交付，物流收入同比增长275%就证明了这一点。由于这些收入的利润率较低，其整体毛利率也相应下降。然而，一旦该领域实现规模经济，利润率增长应该会逆转并回落至70%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.</p><p><blockquote>它还通过不断扩大其国际商户基础来解决第二个问题。在这里，美国商家同比增长超过400%，在其他国家也可以看到类似的趋势。此外，它正在增长Wish Local，这是一项将本地企业与平台连接起来的服务，占所有Wish订单的7%。Wish local主要（或专门）在美国销售，因此越来越多地与网站上的其他产品混合在一起。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09eb88453d075db6b7b8edd21f981b4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: Sensor Tower</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：传感器塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.</p><p><blockquote>我还喜欢Wish通过利用人工智能匹配系统来吸引和留住用户的策略，该系统可以优化平台增长、用户体验和商家投资回报。创造互动移动购物体验的策略似乎运作良好：令人印象深刻的是，Wish每天从用户那里获得超过50万条评论，在这方面甚至超过了亚马逊和其他购物网站，展示了该平台的吸引力。大约80%的首次购物者会再次购买。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Wish能够在竞争激烈的电子商务市场中站稳脚跟，为其提供了巨大的增长空间。目前，大约40%的电子商务市场份额仅由亚马逊拥有。与亚马逊相比，其TAM可能有限，因为它专注于低收入利基市场，这也是它最初受欢迎的原因。尽管如此，这仍为Wish提供了超过3万亿美元的市场机会。还值得注意的是，据报道，亚马逊试图以100亿美元收购Wish，但Wish拒绝了，认为该业务的年销售额将增长到1000亿美元，届时其估值将明显更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Negative Sentiment Baked In</b></p><p><blockquote><b>负面情绪根深蒂固</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.</p><p><blockquote>Wish的前两个季度有点令人失望。虽然该公司轻松超出了收入预期，但为了投资物流，该公司消耗了超过3亿美元的现金。然而，更重要的是，月活跃用户数稳步下降，该公司将此归咎于该公司在应对今年早些时候面临的物流挑战时不再重视广告和客户获取。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Year</td>    <td>2020</td>    <td>2019</td>    <td>2018</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revenue</td>    <td>$2.54B</td>    <td>$1.9B</td>    <td>$1.73B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Gross Profit</td>    <td>$1.59B</td>    <td>$1.46B</td>    <td>$1.45B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Sales and Marketing</b></td>    <td><b>$1.71B (+17%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.46B (-7%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.57B</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>MAUs</td>    <td>107M (+19%)</td>    <td>90M (+10%)</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td><td>2020</td><td>2019</td><td>2018</td></tr><tr><td>收入</td><td>$2.54 B</td><td>19亿美元</td><td>$1.73 B</td></tr><tr><td>毛利</td><td>$1.59 B</td><td>$1.46 B</td><td>$1.45 B</td></tr><tr><td><b>销售及市场推广</b></td><td><b>$17.1亿(+17%)</b></td><td><b>$1.46 B(-7%)</b></td><td><b>$1.57 B</b></td></tr><tr><td>老鼠</td><td>1.07亿(+19%)</td><td>9000万(+10%)</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>82M</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Active Buyers</b></td>    <td><b>64M (+3%)</b></td>    <td><b>62M (-3%)</b></td>    <td><b>64M</b></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> *Growth (Year-over-Year)</p><p><blockquote><td>82M</td><tr><td><b>活跃买家</b></td><td><b>6400万(+3%)</b></td><td><b>6200万(-3%)</b></td><td><b>64M</b></td></tr>*增长（同比）</blockquote></p><p> The largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.</p><p><blockquote>Wish最大的看跌理由是其高昂的营销费用，占其总收入的60%和毛利润的100%以上。这完全没问题，除非它通过营销增加活跃买家，不幸的是事实并非如此。这是一个危险信号，并质疑Wish商业模式的长期可持续性。然而，该公司一直接近正现金流，并表示如果不是因为其大量的营销费用，它已经实现了盈利。也就是说，只要Wish获得新的月活跃用户并通过物流服务增加价值，从长远来看，其营销费用就会得到回报。此外，Wish的营销费用占总收入的比例已从上年的67%降至60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e18c23728274ee708d896923820b282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"278\"><span>Source: Wish IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Wish IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).</p><p><blockquote>就前景而言，这就是该公司本质上强调的。它相信营销费用可以降低到40-45%，从而使EBITDA利润率达到25%的中点范围。如果它实现了这些雄心勃勃的目标（这很有可能），其利润率将与eBay或MercadoLibre（纳斯达克：MELI）相似。不管怎样，Wish的商业模式并不完美，但在我看来（在我看来），所有这些担忧都不仅仅体现在其当前的估值中。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54029f94c37f301d26e93a11636280e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.</p><p><blockquote>即使在最近上涨了50%以上之后，股价仍然远远落后于Poshmark（纳斯达克股票代码：POSH）、eBay、Amazon和（Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP））等同行。Wish的预计收入超过30亿美元，其市销率仅为1.8倍，仅为eBay当前估值的一半，远低于Poshmark。目前的估计是，到2025年，收入将超过60亿美元，自由现金流将达到10亿美元，这意味着Wish的交易价格仅为自由现金流估计的7倍，即销售额的1倍。2021年初，其市盈率接近5倍，估值存在扩张潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What about the Lawsuits?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>诉讼呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.</p><p><blockquote>也许你已经看过关于集体诉讼的新闻（尤其是在雅虎财经上）。这些诉讼被广泛发布，以提醒投资者在近几个月股价下跌后挽回损失。当股票在短时间内大幅下跌并且投资者可能不关心时，此类诉讼并不罕见。这些诉讼还包括CloverHealth（纳斯达克：CLOV）、Skillz（纽约证券交易所：SKLZ）、Array Technologies（纳斯达克：ARRY）等公司。</blockquote></p><p> Short Interest - Still High</p><p><blockquote>空头利息——仍然很高</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875b3fdaf74f1ef639b51d77a3aac01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Fintel</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Fintel</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.</p><p><blockquote>Wish已经获得了散户投资者的巨大吸引力，因为投资者正在寻找下一次大的轧空。由于Wish的大部分股票仍被锁定，其确切的做空比率很难估计。根据Seeking Alpha的数据，目前的空头比率仅为7%，但这个数字可能会更高。根据彭博终端数据，上周其空头权益占其流通股的百分比约为48%。Fintel等其他消息来源将当前的空头量确定为20-30%。现在，很难给出一个确切的估计，但总体来说，很可能在这个范围内的某个地方，许多空头评级仍有待回补。从长远来看，高空头兴趣可能是一个优势，如果股票开始呈上升趋势，就会导致更快的加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> I believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.</p><p><blockquote>我相信Wish仍然是电子商务中最被低估的资产之一，其平台上拥有超过1亿的月用户，并连接了来自世界各地的数千家商家。移动购物应用程序仍然是该领域下载量最高的购物应用程序之一，并具有独特的价值主张，比乍一看更智能。此外，其与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将为超过300,000家商家提供免费的直接集成，将他们直接连接到Wish的商家仪表板，从而进一步推动增长。尽管Wish不完善的商业模式存在盈利能力滞后等风险，但耐心的投资者可能会获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148768572","content_text":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.\nWish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.\nWhile accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.\nI believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.\n\nJuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nOverview\nContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.\nIn this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.\nThe Digital Dollar Tree\nWish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.\nFrankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.\n\nNow, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.\nIt is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.\nSource: Sensor Tower\nI also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.\nWish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.\nNegative Sentiment Baked In\nWish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.\n\n\n\nYear\n2020\n2019\n2018\n\n\nRevenue\n$2.54B\n$1.9B\n$1.73B\n\n\nGross Profit\n$1.59B\n$1.46B\n$1.45B\n\n\nSales and Marketing\n$1.71B (+17%)\n$1.46B (-7%)\n$1.57B\n\n\nMAUs\n107M (+19%)\n90M (+10%)\n82M\n\n\nActive Buyers\n64M (+3%)\n62M (-3%)\n64M\n\n\n\n*Growth (Year-over-Year)\nThe largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.\nSource: Wish IR\nIn terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).\nData byYCharts\nEven after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.\nWhat about the Lawsuits?\nPerhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.\nShort Interest - Still High\nSource: Fintel\nWish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.\nThe Bottom Line\nI believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WISH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185860817,"gmtCreate":1623641451839,"gmtModify":1634030768044,"author":{"id":"3575639353998529","authorId":"3575639353998529","name":"Rahyenong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575639353998529","idStr":"3575639353998529"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185860817","repostId":"1163127718","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163127718","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623640604,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163127718?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 11:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD’s stock has been left behind, but not for long — here’s why<blockquote>AMD的股票已经落后，但不会太久——原因如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163127718","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Advanced Micro Devices has a slew of new cutting-edge products, not to mention a key acquisition, to","content":"<p>Advanced Micro Devices has a slew of new cutting-edge products, not to mention a key acquisition, to accelerate growth.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices拥有一系列新的尖端产品，更不用说一项关键收购来加速增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46f527aa40d36fd2c1a5697760ca79d\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>(GETTY IMAGES)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（盖蒂图片社）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Technology as a sector still looks like a buy after a recent rebound, but&nbsp;one chip stock stands out in particular.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的反弹之后，科技作为一个行业看起来仍然值得买入，但一只芯片股尤其突出。</blockquote></p><p> While the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;and Nvidia Corp.NVDAhave recovered from their May swoons, Advanced Micro Devices Inc.&nbsp;hasn’t yet fully rebounded. This makes the stock look like one to own, even though it is up 517% since I last suggested itin February 2017, compared with gains of 80% for the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and 140% for Nasdaq Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>虽然iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF和Nvidia Corp.NVDA已经从5月份的低迷中恢复过来，但Advanced Micro Devices Inc.尚未完全反弹。这使得该股看起来值得持有，尽管自我上次在2017年2月建议该股以来，该股已上涨517%，而标普500和纳斯达克综合指数分别上涨了80%和140%。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s take a look at why, and how AMD stacks up against competitors.</p><p><blockquote>让我们来看看为什么，以及AMD如何与竞争对手相比。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key dynamics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键动态</b></blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices designs central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs) used in data center servers, PCs and videogame consoles. That makes it a play on two of the biggest trends in tech right now — migration to the cloud and videogame hardware. Historically, the company lagged Intel Corp..But it has now surpassed its rival because of innovative chip designs and manufacturing issues at Intel.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices设计用于数据中心服务器、PC和视频游戏机的中央处理器（CPU）和图形处理器（GPU）。这使得它成为目前科技领域两大趋势的一部分——向云和视频游戏硬件的迁移。从历史上看，该公司落后于英特尔公司。但由于英特尔的创新芯片设计和制造问题，它现在已经超过了竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past few years, AMD has rolled out highly competitive lines of chips, thanks to the leadership of CEO Lisa Su, who took the helm in 2014, says tech analyst Peter Karazeris at Thrivent. This put AMD back in the game. AMD’s EPYC series of processors for servers has been endorsed by broad usage among the main cloud providers — including Amazon Inc.,Alphabet Inc.,Microsoft Corp.,Oracle Corp.&nbsp;and Tencent Holdings Ltd.AMD’s Radeon GPUs for gaming hardware and its Ryzen line of chips used in PCs and laptops are equally successful.</p><p><blockquote>Thrivent的技术分析师Peter Karazeris表示，在2014年上任的首席执行官Lisa Su的领导下，AMD推出了极具竞争力的芯片系列。这让AMD重新回到了游戏中。AMD用于服务器的EPYC系列处理器已被主要云提供商广泛使用，包括亚马逊公司、Alphabet公司、微软公司、甲骨文公司和腾讯控股控股有限公司。AMD用于游戏硬件的Radeon GPU及其用于PC和笔记本电脑的Ryzen系列芯片同样成功。</blockquote></p><p> Besides better chip design, AMD has pulled ahead by drawing on advanced manufacturing capabilities of Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;Manufacturing Co. Ltd.,which can pack more punch in chips through the use of smaller, 7 nanometer transistors. Intel is stuck back at 10 nanometers.</p><p><blockquote>除了更好的芯片设计，AMD还通过利用台积电制造有限公司的先进制造能力取得了领先，该公司可以通过使用更小的7纳米晶体管来封装更多的芯片。英特尔被困在10纳米。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s the upshot in all of this: AMD is a solid play on the megatrend of cloud computing and the related data center buildout. It’s a bet on the increasing complexity of artificial intelligence and big data analytics. And its GPU chips give Nvidia a run for the money. That makes AMD a play on the new Xbox and Sony PlayStation console upgrade cycle and the potential release of a new Nintendo Switch later this year. AMD is also now a serious contender in PCs and notebooks.</p><p><blockquote>这一切的结果是：AMD在云计算和相关数据中心建设的大趋势中发挥了坚实的作用。这是对人工智能和大数据分析日益复杂的押注。它的GPU芯片让英伟达物有所值。这使得AMD在新的Xbox和索尼PlayStation游戏机升级周期中发挥了作用，并有可能在今年晚些时候发布新的任天堂Switch。AMD现在也是个人电脑和笔记本电脑的有力竞争者。</blockquote></p><p> “Our goal at AMD is to really be the leader in the high-performance computing wave,” says Su.</p><p><blockquote>“我们AMD的目标是真正成为高性能计算浪潮的领导者，”Su说。</blockquote></p><p> She’s getting her way, and you can see the success in the numbers. First-quarter sales grew 93% year-over-year and 6% sequentially. AMD guided for 50% sales growth for the year, up from prior guidance of 37% growth.</p><p><blockquote>她正在如愿以偿，你可以从数字中看到成功。第一季度销售额同比增长93%，环比增长6%。AMD预计今年销售额增长50%，高于之前37%的增长指引。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe this guidance should be easily attainable, particularly as Intel deals with manufacturing challenges,” says Morningstar analyst Abhinav Davuluri.</p><p><blockquote>晨星分析师Abhinav Davuluri表示：“我们相信这一指导应该很容易实现，特别是在英特尔应对制造挑战的情况下。”</blockquote></p><p> In CPUs, sales are growing faster than those of the overall industry, which tells us AMD is gaining share from competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在CPU领域，销售额的增长速度快于整个行业，这告诉我们AMD正在从竞争对手那里获得份额。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect continued share growth through the balance of the year and into 2022,” says Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari, who has a buy rating and a $106 price target on AMD. The chip company is on Goldman’s “conviction list” of highly favored companies.</p><p><blockquote>高盛分析师Toshiya Hari表示：“我们预计今年剩余时间和2022年股价将持续增长。”他对AMD给予买入评级和106美元的目标价。这家芯片公司在高盛高度青睐公司的“定罪名单”上。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s how AMD stacks up against competitors in terms of growth in the most recent quarter, profit margins and valuation:</p><p><blockquote>以下是AMD在最近一个季度的增长、利润率和估值方面与竞争对手的比较：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc890546f0d4079834223660e88bc00d\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"387\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash and cash flow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金及现金流量</b></blockquote></p><p> Big cash positions and solid cash flow are positives for investors because they give companies freedom that comes from reliance on banks for financing. Strong cash positions also support investor-friendly moves, such as buybacks and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>大量现金头寸和稳健的现金流对投资者来说是积极的，因为它们为公司提供了依赖银行融资的自由。强劲的现金头寸也支持对投资者友好的举措，例如回购和股息。</blockquote></p><p> Thanks to all the growth, AMD’s cash position rose sharply last year to $2.3 billion, from $1.5 billion in 2019. AMD doesn’t pay a dividend, but its board recently approved a large $4 billion share repurchase. As the company’s first big return of cash to shareholders, this represents about 4% of AMD’s market capitalization. It also signals the company’s confidence in its business and ability to continue generating solid free cash flow despite rising concerns about intensifying competition, says Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore.</p><p><blockquote>得益于所有的增长，AMD的现金头寸从2019年的15亿美元大幅上升至去年的23亿美元。AMD不支付股息，但其董事会最近批准了40亿美元的巨额股票回购。作为该公司首次向股东返还大笔现金，这约占AMD市值的4%。德意志银行分析师罗斯·西莫尔表示，这也表明该公司对其业务充满信心，尽管人们越来越担心竞争加剧，但仍有能力继续产生稳定的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s a look at AMD’s cash position and cash flow&nbsp; growth, relative to competitors. The numbers for Marvell Technology Inc.&nbsp;are through Jan. 30, 2021. The rest are for the first quarter:</p><p><blockquote>以下是AMD相对于竞争对手的现金状况和现金流增长情况。Marvell Technology Inc.的数据截至2021年1月30日。其余为第一季度：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798ea9650ce6e4247ba91b6912e48a82\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Global reach</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球影响力</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMD books sales in many regions. That’s a positive when global growth is as strong as it is now — lifted by $30 trillion in fiscal and monetary stimulus worldwide. Big exposure to China could be a risk because of U.S.-China tensions, but this issue seems to be diminishing a bit under President Biden, at least so far.</p><p><blockquote>AMD在许多地区都有销售记录。当全球经济增长像现在这样强劲时，这是一个积极的因素——在全球30万亿美元的财政和货币刺激措施的推动下。由于美中紧张局势，大量接触中国可能是一种风险，但在拜登总统的领导下，这个问题似乎有所减少，至少到目前为止是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04e42a7c55f914ecd7ddb2cbf8562253\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"772\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock valuation and performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票估值和表现</b></blockquote></p><p> By most measures, AMD is the second-priciest stock in its group. But given the growth, it’s justified.</p><p><blockquote>从大多数指标来看，AMD是同类股票中第二贵的股票。但考虑到增长，这是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b26407edc4248424b878d3024bb9ac2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"550\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street’s opinion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街的观点</b></blockquote></p><p> As a group, Wall Street analysts are predicting the biggest gains for AMD, among all the companies in its space. It’s also notable that only 61% of analysts have a buy rating, lower than the percentages for Nvidia, Broadcom Inc.,Marvell and Analog Devices Inc..For investors, this is a positive because it tells us there’s more room for sell-side analysts to turn bullish and drive their clients into the name.</p><p><blockquote>作为一个整体，华尔街分析师预测AMD的涨幅是该领域所有公司中最大的。同样值得注意的是，只有61%的分析师给予买入评级，低于英伟达、博通公司、Marvell和ADI公司的比例。对于投资者来说，这是一个积极的因素，因为它告诉我们卖方分析师有更多的空间转向看涨并推动他们的客户进入该名称。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/995f76673215ab81971fbc2e8ace0641\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"551\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> One big risk for AMD is that Intel stages a comeback, notes Tony Wang, a tech analyst at T. Rowe Price. Intel has done so before. But AMD still has a few tricks up its sleeve.</p><p><blockquote>T.Rowe Price科技分析师Tony Wang指出，AMD面临的一大风险是英特尔卷土重来。英特尔以前也这样做过。但AMD仍然有一些锦囊妙计。</blockquote></p><p> It recently launched a more advanced version of its EPYC processor, codenamed Milan. This line of server chips will ramp up sales in the second half of this year. AMD is making the leap to even more efficient 5 nanometer production with a line of chips dubbed Genoa, slated for release in 2022. These two rollouts will allow AMD to continue its market-share gains against competitors including Intel, says Jefferies analyst Mark&nbsp;Lipacis — one reason he has a “buy” rating and a $110 price target on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>它最近推出了更高级版本的EPYC处理器，代号为Milan。该系列服务器芯片将在今年下半年提升销量。AMD正在向更高效的5纳米生产迈进，推出了一系列名为Genoa的芯片，计划于2022年发布。杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师马克·利帕西斯(Mark Lipacis)表示，这两项产品的推出将使AMD在相对于英特尔等竞争对手的市场份额中继续增长，这也是他给予该股“买入”评级和110美元目标价的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> AMD is also rolling out next-generation GPUs based on its Compute DNA (CDNA)&nbsp;chip architecture, for use in data centers. And AMD’s merger with Xilinx Inc.&nbsp;later this year should help AMD produce even more sophisticated chips by incorporating Xilinx’s field-programmable gate array (FPGA) capabilities into its chip designs. FPGA gives customers more leeway to customize chips for their own needs.</p><p><blockquote>AMD还推出了基于其计算DNA（CDNA）芯片架构的下一代GPU，用于数据中心。AMD今年晚些时候与Xilinx Inc.的合并应该会通过将Xilinx的现场可编程门阵列（FPGA）功能整合到其芯片设计中来帮助AMD生产更复杂的芯片。FPGA为客户提供了更多的余地，可以根据自己的需求定制芯片。</blockquote></p><p> Other risks include the cyclical nature of the chip industry and the unpredictable demand from consumers and companies as economic growth rates change. One more threat is the broader adoption of competing chips based on ARM (advanced RISC machines) technology.</p><p><blockquote>其他风险包括芯片行业的周期性，以及随着经济增长率的变化，消费者和企业的需求不可预测。另一个威胁是基于ARM（高级RISC机器）技术的竞争芯片的更广泛采用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Important dates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>重要日期</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>July 26:</b>Second-quarter earnings release.</p><p><blockquote><b>7月26日：</b>第二季度财报发布。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oct. 25:</b>Third-quarter earnings release.</p><p><blockquote><b>10月25日：</b>第三季度财报发布。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD’s stock has been left behind, but not for long — here’s why<blockquote>AMD的股票已经落后，但不会太久——原因如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD’s stock has been left behind, but not for long — here’s why<blockquote>AMD的股票已经落后，但不会太久——原因如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 11:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Advanced Micro Devices has a slew of new cutting-edge products, not to mention a key acquisition, to accelerate growth.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices拥有一系列新的尖端产品，更不用说一项关键收购来加速增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46f527aa40d36fd2c1a5697760ca79d\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>(GETTY IMAGES)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（盖蒂图片社）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Technology as a sector still looks like a buy after a recent rebound, but&nbsp;one chip stock stands out in particular.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的反弹之后，科技作为一个行业看起来仍然值得买入，但一只芯片股尤其突出。</blockquote></p><p> While the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;and Nvidia Corp.NVDAhave recovered from their May swoons, Advanced Micro Devices Inc.&nbsp;hasn’t yet fully rebounded. This makes the stock look like one to own, even though it is up 517% since I last suggested itin February 2017, compared with gains of 80% for the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and 140% for Nasdaq Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>虽然iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF和Nvidia Corp.NVDA已经从5月份的低迷中恢复过来，但Advanced Micro Devices Inc.尚未完全反弹。这使得该股看起来值得持有，尽管自我上次在2017年2月建议该股以来，该股已上涨517%，而标普500和纳斯达克综合指数分别上涨了80%和140%。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s take a look at why, and how AMD stacks up against competitors.</p><p><blockquote>让我们来看看为什么，以及AMD如何与竞争对手相比。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key dynamics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键动态</b></blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices designs central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs) used in data center servers, PCs and videogame consoles. That makes it a play on two of the biggest trends in tech right now — migration to the cloud and videogame hardware. Historically, the company lagged Intel Corp..But it has now surpassed its rival because of innovative chip designs and manufacturing issues at Intel.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices设计用于数据中心服务器、PC和视频游戏机的中央处理器（CPU）和图形处理器（GPU）。这使得它成为目前科技领域两大趋势的一部分——向云和视频游戏硬件的迁移。从历史上看，该公司落后于英特尔公司。但由于英特尔的创新芯片设计和制造问题，它现在已经超过了竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past few years, AMD has rolled out highly competitive lines of chips, thanks to the leadership of CEO Lisa Su, who took the helm in 2014, says tech analyst Peter Karazeris at Thrivent. This put AMD back in the game. AMD’s EPYC series of processors for servers has been endorsed by broad usage among the main cloud providers — including Amazon Inc.,Alphabet Inc.,Microsoft Corp.,Oracle Corp.&nbsp;and Tencent Holdings Ltd.AMD’s Radeon GPUs for gaming hardware and its Ryzen line of chips used in PCs and laptops are equally successful.</p><p><blockquote>Thrivent的技术分析师Peter Karazeris表示，在2014年上任的首席执行官Lisa Su的领导下，AMD推出了极具竞争力的芯片系列。这让AMD重新回到了游戏中。AMD用于服务器的EPYC系列处理器已被主要云提供商广泛使用，包括亚马逊公司、Alphabet公司、微软公司、甲骨文公司和腾讯控股控股有限公司。AMD用于游戏硬件的Radeon GPU及其用于PC和笔记本电脑的Ryzen系列芯片同样成功。</blockquote></p><p> Besides better chip design, AMD has pulled ahead by drawing on advanced manufacturing capabilities of Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;Manufacturing Co. Ltd.,which can pack more punch in chips through the use of smaller, 7 nanometer transistors. Intel is stuck back at 10 nanometers.</p><p><blockquote>除了更好的芯片设计，AMD还通过利用台积电制造有限公司的先进制造能力取得了领先，该公司可以通过使用更小的7纳米晶体管来封装更多的芯片。英特尔被困在10纳米。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s the upshot in all of this: AMD is a solid play on the megatrend of cloud computing and the related data center buildout. It’s a bet on the increasing complexity of artificial intelligence and big data analytics. And its GPU chips give Nvidia a run for the money. That makes AMD a play on the new Xbox and Sony PlayStation console upgrade cycle and the potential release of a new Nintendo Switch later this year. AMD is also now a serious contender in PCs and notebooks.</p><p><blockquote>这一切的结果是：AMD在云计算和相关数据中心建设的大趋势中发挥了坚实的作用。这是对人工智能和大数据分析日益复杂的押注。它的GPU芯片让英伟达物有所值。这使得AMD在新的Xbox和索尼PlayStation游戏机升级周期中发挥了作用，并有可能在今年晚些时候发布新的任天堂Switch。AMD现在也是个人电脑和笔记本电脑的有力竞争者。</blockquote></p><p> “Our goal at AMD is to really be the leader in the high-performance computing wave,” says Su.</p><p><blockquote>“我们AMD的目标是真正成为高性能计算浪潮的领导者，”Su说。</blockquote></p><p> She’s getting her way, and you can see the success in the numbers. First-quarter sales grew 93% year-over-year and 6% sequentially. AMD guided for 50% sales growth for the year, up from prior guidance of 37% growth.</p><p><blockquote>她正在如愿以偿，你可以从数字中看到成功。第一季度销售额同比增长93%，环比增长6%。AMD预计今年销售额增长50%，高于之前37%的增长指引。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe this guidance should be easily attainable, particularly as Intel deals with manufacturing challenges,” says Morningstar analyst Abhinav Davuluri.</p><p><blockquote>晨星分析师Abhinav Davuluri表示：“我们相信这一指导应该很容易实现，特别是在英特尔应对制造挑战的情况下。”</blockquote></p><p> In CPUs, sales are growing faster than those of the overall industry, which tells us AMD is gaining share from competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在CPU领域，销售额的增长速度快于整个行业，这告诉我们AMD正在从竞争对手那里获得份额。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect continued share growth through the balance of the year and into 2022,” says Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari, who has a buy rating and a $106 price target on AMD. The chip company is on Goldman’s “conviction list” of highly favored companies.</p><p><blockquote>高盛分析师Toshiya Hari表示：“我们预计今年剩余时间和2022年股价将持续增长。”他对AMD给予买入评级和106美元的目标价。这家芯片公司在高盛高度青睐公司的“定罪名单”上。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s how AMD stacks up against competitors in terms of growth in the most recent quarter, profit margins and valuation:</p><p><blockquote>以下是AMD在最近一个季度的增长、利润率和估值方面与竞争对手的比较：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc890546f0d4079834223660e88bc00d\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"387\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash and cash flow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金及现金流量</b></blockquote></p><p> Big cash positions and solid cash flow are positives for investors because they give companies freedom that comes from reliance on banks for financing. Strong cash positions also support investor-friendly moves, such as buybacks and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>大量现金头寸和稳健的现金流对投资者来说是积极的，因为它们为公司提供了依赖银行融资的自由。强劲的现金头寸也支持对投资者友好的举措，例如回购和股息。</blockquote></p><p> Thanks to all the growth, AMD’s cash position rose sharply last year to $2.3 billion, from $1.5 billion in 2019. AMD doesn’t pay a dividend, but its board recently approved a large $4 billion share repurchase. As the company’s first big return of cash to shareholders, this represents about 4% of AMD’s market capitalization. It also signals the company’s confidence in its business and ability to continue generating solid free cash flow despite rising concerns about intensifying competition, says Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore.</p><p><blockquote>得益于所有的增长，AMD的现金头寸从2019年的15亿美元大幅上升至去年的23亿美元。AMD不支付股息，但其董事会最近批准了40亿美元的巨额股票回购。作为该公司首次向股东返还大笔现金，这约占AMD市值的4%。德意志银行分析师罗斯·西莫尔表示，这也表明该公司对其业务充满信心，尽管人们越来越担心竞争加剧，但仍有能力继续产生稳定的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s a look at AMD’s cash position and cash flow&nbsp; growth, relative to competitors. The numbers for Marvell Technology Inc.&nbsp;are through Jan. 30, 2021. The rest are for the first quarter:</p><p><blockquote>以下是AMD相对于竞争对手的现金状况和现金流增长情况。Marvell Technology Inc.的数据截至2021年1月30日。其余为第一季度：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798ea9650ce6e4247ba91b6912e48a82\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Global reach</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球影响力</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMD books sales in many regions. That’s a positive when global growth is as strong as it is now — lifted by $30 trillion in fiscal and monetary stimulus worldwide. Big exposure to China could be a risk because of U.S.-China tensions, but this issue seems to be diminishing a bit under President Biden, at least so far.</p><p><blockquote>AMD在许多地区都有销售记录。当全球经济增长像现在这样强劲时，这是一个积极的因素——在全球30万亿美元的财政和货币刺激措施的推动下。由于美中紧张局势，大量接触中国可能是一种风险，但在拜登总统的领导下，这个问题似乎有所减少，至少到目前为止是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04e42a7c55f914ecd7ddb2cbf8562253\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"772\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock valuation and performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票估值和表现</b></blockquote></p><p> By most measures, AMD is the second-priciest stock in its group. But given the growth, it’s justified.</p><p><blockquote>从大多数指标来看，AMD是同类股票中第二贵的股票。但考虑到增长，这是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b26407edc4248424b878d3024bb9ac2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"550\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street’s opinion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街的观点</b></blockquote></p><p> As a group, Wall Street analysts are predicting the biggest gains for AMD, among all the companies in its space. It’s also notable that only 61% of analysts have a buy rating, lower than the percentages for Nvidia, Broadcom Inc.,Marvell and Analog Devices Inc..For investors, this is a positive because it tells us there’s more room for sell-side analysts to turn bullish and drive their clients into the name.</p><p><blockquote>作为一个整体，华尔街分析师预测AMD的涨幅是该领域所有公司中最大的。同样值得注意的是，只有61%的分析师给予买入评级，低于英伟达、博通公司、Marvell和ADI公司的比例。对于投资者来说，这是一个积极的因素，因为它告诉我们卖方分析师有更多的空间转向看涨并推动他们的客户进入该名称。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/995f76673215ab81971fbc2e8ace0641\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"551\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> One big risk for AMD is that Intel stages a comeback, notes Tony Wang, a tech analyst at T. Rowe Price. Intel has done so before. But AMD still has a few tricks up its sleeve.</p><p><blockquote>T.Rowe Price科技分析师Tony Wang指出，AMD面临的一大风险是英特尔卷土重来。英特尔以前也这样做过。但AMD仍然有一些锦囊妙计。</blockquote></p><p> It recently launched a more advanced version of its EPYC processor, codenamed Milan. This line of server chips will ramp up sales in the second half of this year. AMD is making the leap to even more efficient 5 nanometer production with a line of chips dubbed Genoa, slated for release in 2022. These two rollouts will allow AMD to continue its market-share gains against competitors including Intel, says Jefferies analyst Mark&nbsp;Lipacis — one reason he has a “buy” rating and a $110 price target on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>它最近推出了更高级版本的EPYC处理器，代号为Milan。该系列服务器芯片将在今年下半年提升销量。AMD正在向更高效的5纳米生产迈进，推出了一系列名为Genoa的芯片，计划于2022年发布。杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师马克·利帕西斯(Mark Lipacis)表示，这两项产品的推出将使AMD在相对于英特尔等竞争对手的市场份额中继续增长，这也是他给予该股“买入”评级和110美元目标价的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> AMD is also rolling out next-generation GPUs based on its Compute DNA (CDNA)&nbsp;chip architecture, for use in data centers. And AMD’s merger with Xilinx Inc.&nbsp;later this year should help AMD produce even more sophisticated chips by incorporating Xilinx’s field-programmable gate array (FPGA) capabilities into its chip designs. FPGA gives customers more leeway to customize chips for their own needs.</p><p><blockquote>AMD还推出了基于其计算DNA（CDNA）芯片架构的下一代GPU，用于数据中心。AMD今年晚些时候与Xilinx Inc.的合并应该会通过将Xilinx的现场可编程门阵列（FPGA）功能整合到其芯片设计中来帮助AMD生产更复杂的芯片。FPGA为客户提供了更多的余地，可以根据自己的需求定制芯片。</blockquote></p><p> Other risks include the cyclical nature of the chip industry and the unpredictable demand from consumers and companies as economic growth rates change. One more threat is the broader adoption of competing chips based on ARM (advanced RISC machines) technology.</p><p><blockquote>其他风险包括芯片行业的周期性，以及随着经济增长率的变化，消费者和企业的需求不可预测。另一个威胁是基于ARM（高级RISC机器）技术的竞争芯片的更广泛采用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Important dates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>重要日期</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>July 26:</b>Second-quarter earnings release.</p><p><blockquote><b>7月26日：</b>第二季度财报发布。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oct. 25:</b>Third-quarter earnings release.</p><p><blockquote><b>10月25日：</b>第三季度财报发布。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amds-stock-has-been-left-behind-but-not-for-long-heres-why-11623343634?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amds-stock-has-been-left-behind-but-not-for-long-heres-why-11623343634?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163127718","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices has a slew of new cutting-edge products, not to mention a key acquisition, to accelerate growth.\n(GETTY IMAGES)\nTechnology as a sector still looks like a buy after a recent rebound, but one chip stock stands out in particular.\nWhile the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF and Nvidia Corp.NVDAhave recovered from their May swoons, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. hasn’t yet fully rebounded. This makes the stock look like one to own, even though it is up 517% since I last suggested itin February 2017, compared with gains of 80% for the S&P 500 and 140% for Nasdaq Composite Index.\nLet’s take a look at why, and how AMD stacks up against competitors.\nKey dynamics\nAdvanced Micro Devices designs central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs) used in data center servers, PCs and videogame consoles. That makes it a play on two of the biggest trends in tech right now — migration to the cloud and videogame hardware. Historically, the company lagged Intel Corp..But it has now surpassed its rival because of innovative chip designs and manufacturing issues at Intel.\nOver the past few years, AMD has rolled out highly competitive lines of chips, thanks to the leadership of CEO Lisa Su, who took the helm in 2014, says tech analyst Peter Karazeris at Thrivent. This put AMD back in the game. AMD’s EPYC series of processors for servers has been endorsed by broad usage among the main cloud providers — including Amazon Inc.,Alphabet Inc.,Microsoft Corp.,Oracle Corp. and Tencent Holdings Ltd.AMD’s Radeon GPUs for gaming hardware and its Ryzen line of chips used in PCs and laptops are equally successful.\nBesides better chip design, AMD has pulled ahead by drawing on advanced manufacturing capabilities of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.,which can pack more punch in chips through the use of smaller, 7 nanometer transistors. Intel is stuck back at 10 nanometers.\nHere’s the upshot in all of this: AMD is a solid play on the megatrend of cloud computing and the related data center buildout. It’s a bet on the increasing complexity of artificial intelligence and big data analytics. And its GPU chips give Nvidia a run for the money. That makes AMD a play on the new Xbox and Sony PlayStation console upgrade cycle and the potential release of a new Nintendo Switch later this year. AMD is also now a serious contender in PCs and notebooks.\n“Our goal at AMD is to really be the leader in the high-performance computing wave,” says Su.\nShe’s getting her way, and you can see the success in the numbers. First-quarter sales grew 93% year-over-year and 6% sequentially. AMD guided for 50% sales growth for the year, up from prior guidance of 37% growth.\n“We believe this guidance should be easily attainable, particularly as Intel deals with manufacturing challenges,” says Morningstar analyst Abhinav Davuluri.\nIn CPUs, sales are growing faster than those of the overall industry, which tells us AMD is gaining share from competitors.\n“We expect continued share growth through the balance of the year and into 2022,” says Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari, who has a buy rating and a $106 price target on AMD. The chip company is on Goldman’s “conviction list” of highly favored companies.\nHere’s how AMD stacks up against competitors in terms of growth in the most recent quarter, profit margins and valuation:\n(FACTSET)\nCash and cash flow\nBig cash positions and solid cash flow are positives for investors because they give companies freedom that comes from reliance on banks for financing. Strong cash positions also support investor-friendly moves, such as buybacks and dividends.\nThanks to all the growth, AMD’s cash position rose sharply last year to $2.3 billion, from $1.5 billion in 2019. AMD doesn’t pay a dividend, but its board recently approved a large $4 billion share repurchase. As the company’s first big return of cash to shareholders, this represents about 4% of AMD’s market capitalization. It also signals the company’s confidence in its business and ability to continue generating solid free cash flow despite rising concerns about intensifying competition, says Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore.\nHere’s a look at AMD’s cash position and cash flow  growth, relative to competitors. The numbers for Marvell Technology Inc. are through Jan. 30, 2021. The rest are for the first quarter:\n(FACTSET)\nGlobal reach\nAMD books sales in many regions. That’s a positive when global growth is as strong as it is now — lifted by $30 trillion in fiscal and monetary stimulus worldwide. Big exposure to China could be a risk because of U.S.-China tensions, but this issue seems to be diminishing a bit under President Biden, at least so far.\n(FACTSET)\nStock valuation and performance\nBy most measures, AMD is the second-priciest stock in its group. But given the growth, it’s justified.\n(FACTSET)\nWall Street’s opinion\nAs a group, Wall Street analysts are predicting the biggest gains for AMD, among all the companies in its space. It’s also notable that only 61% of analysts have a buy rating, lower than the percentages for Nvidia, Broadcom Inc.,Marvell and Analog Devices Inc..For investors, this is a positive because it tells us there’s more room for sell-side analysts to turn bullish and drive their clients into the name.\n(FACTSET)\nRisks\nOne big risk for AMD is that Intel stages a comeback, notes Tony Wang, a tech analyst at T. Rowe Price. Intel has done so before. But AMD still has a few tricks up its sleeve.\nIt recently launched a more advanced version of its EPYC processor, codenamed Milan. This line of server chips will ramp up sales in the second half of this year. AMD is making the leap to even more efficient 5 nanometer production with a line of chips dubbed Genoa, slated for release in 2022. These two rollouts will allow AMD to continue its market-share gains against competitors including Intel, says Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis — one reason he has a “buy” rating and a $110 price target on the stock.\nAMD is also rolling out next-generation GPUs based on its Compute DNA (CDNA) chip architecture, for use in data centers. And AMD’s merger with Xilinx Inc. later this year should help AMD produce even more sophisticated chips by incorporating Xilinx’s field-programmable gate array (FPGA) capabilities into its chip designs. FPGA gives customers more leeway to customize chips for their own needs.\nOther risks include the cyclical nature of the chip industry and the unpredictable demand from consumers and companies as economic growth rates change. One more threat is the broader adoption of competing chips based on ARM (advanced RISC machines) technology.\nImportant dates\nJuly 26:Second-quarter earnings release.\nOct. 25:Third-quarter earnings release.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1937,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182126413,"gmtCreate":1623558791332,"gmtModify":1634031702197,"author":{"id":"3575639353998529","authorId":"3575639353998529","name":"Rahyenong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575639353998529","idStr":"3575639353998529"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182126413","repostId":"2143788707","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182126080,"gmtCreate":1623558776940,"gmtModify":1634031702792,"author":{"id":"3575639353998529","authorId":"3575639353998529","name":"Rahyenong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575639353998529","idStr":"3575639353998529"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182126080","repostId":"2143788707","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186132138,"gmtCreate":1623477543424,"gmtModify":1634032575913,"author":{"id":"3575639353998529","authorId":"3575639353998529","name":"Rahyenong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575639353998529","idStr":"3575639353998529"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186132138","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188660790,"gmtCreate":1623432983010,"gmtModify":1634033209215,"author":{"id":"3575639353998529","authorId":"3575639353998529","name":"Rahyenong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575639353998529","idStr":"3575639353998529"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188660790","repostId":"1114257617","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114257617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623425495,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114257617?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉来了：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录崩溃</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114257617","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on","content":"<p>For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get&nbsp; (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming that<i>the Fed is wrong</i>, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn<i>\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，我们一直在警告价格飙升对企业（“系好安全带！通货膨胀来了！”）和消费者（“这不是暂时的”：对恶性通货膨胀的担忧正在整个美国飙升”）的有害影响，促使即使是无聊的卖方研究也变得（超级）令人兴奋，德意志银行（本周警告称“通胀即将爆发”，“让全球经济坐在一颗定时炸弹上”）和美国银行（“刚刚吐槽了美联储的“暂时”论点”）现在公开声称<i>美联储错了</i>美国正面临前所未有的高得多的非暂时性通胀时期，德国央行甚至警告<i>“政策制定者将面临自上世纪80年代沃尔克/里根时期以来最具挑战性的几年。”</i></blockquote></p><p> But none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>但所有这些都没有吓到美联储承认——或相信——通胀只不过是暂时的。也许就这一次，美联储说得有道理，因为在其他条件相同的情况下，我们指的是工资没有上涨，解决物价上涨的最佳方法是，嗯...更高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Presenting Exhibit A</b>: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.</p><p><blockquote><b>出示附件A</b>：两周前，我们观察到，预计拜登令人兴奋的财富将结束，很快他们将不得不再次量入为出，根据世界大型企业联合会的衡量，美国人的购买意愿（从今天起6个月）在3个主要支出类别：住宅、汽车和主要家用电器。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/440125680ea111da38a7c9adbc47f811\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...</p><p><blockquote>降幅如此之大，相当于购买家电意向的最大单月降幅...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483ef9fdbbe4fe34fc94863262839a85\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... and homes...</p><p><blockquote>...还有家...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea40a948d838e7eaa00fbde1f60e1906\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.</p><p><blockquote>这证实了我们之前提到的，即购房者信心崩溃（由于创纪录的房价）和房屋建筑商信心飙升（也由于创纪录的房价）之间的创纪录差异。猜猜哪一个最终会很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a49f04b77740aab4ba75d00085dd8ada\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to today when we just got<b>Exhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.</b></p><p><blockquote>快进到今天我们刚刚得到<b>证据B：六月密歇根情绪调查。</b></blockquote></p><p> While there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...</p><p><blockquote>虽然这里有一些好消息，但未来1年和5-10年的通胀预期均略有下降...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0cf98553bfedc6500457c9aa3cbe0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.</p><p><blockquote>...我们发现更令人担忧的是首席经济学家理查德·科廷(Richard Curtin)所说的，即由于“通胀上升仍然是消费者最关心的问题”，房屋、汽车和家庭耐用品市场价格的自发参考跌至自1974年11月创纪录以来的最糟糕水平。</blockquote></p><p> And as Curtin adds, \"<b>these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.</b>These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如科廷补充的那样，“<b>这些对市场价格的不利看法将汽车和房屋的整体购买态度降至1982年以来的最低点。</b>对于收入排名前三分之一的人来说，这些下降尤其严重，他们占零售额的一半以上。”</blockquote></p><p> This can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.</p><p><blockquote>这可以从下图中看出，该图显示了由于房屋、耐用品和汽车价格高企而导致的“不良购买条件”的全面记录。换句话说，由于价格飙升，美国正在进行买家罢工。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46f5f27af1090c20579d573274a9f52\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This, for better or worse,<b>screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,</b>as Curting elaborates:</p><p><blockquote>不管是好是坏，<b>尖叫的不仅是滞胀，还有永久上涨的价格，</b>正如柯廷所阐述的：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.</i>   <i><b>The acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.</b></i>  The problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.</p><p><blockquote><i>...在疫情的出现中，由于被压抑的需求和创纪录的储蓄以及就业和收入前景的改善，消费者对价格的敏感度暂时降低。</i><i><b>如果退出时间很长，人们接受疫情导致的价格上涨，使得通胀心理更有可能站稳脚跟。</b></i>问题是：刺激迟早会结束，但到那时价格已经被固定得更高，祝你好运，试图拉低价格。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   <i>While expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.</i>  Oh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.</p><p><blockquote><i>虽然扩张性货币和财政政策仍然是必要的，但随之而来的通胀上升将造成分配不均的影响。六月份，老年人和低收入家庭已经注意到了这些影响。美联储政策语言的转变可能会浇灭任何初期的通胀心理，这对消费者来说并不奇怪，因为三分之二的人已经预计未来一年利率会上升。</i>哦，对于那些说工资上涨可能是永久性的人来说，我们有一些坏消息：雇主非常清楚，延长失业救济金的繁荣将于9月份结束，届时数百万目前失业的工人将涌入劳动力市场，导致工资大幅下降，这就是为什么大多数潜在雇主不提高基本工资，而是提供一次性奖金，顾名思义，这是一次性的。至于更高的工资压力，嗯...等到10月份，当一切发生逆转时，山姆大叔不再是美国私营部门薪酬更高的竞争对手，工资也会暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> What does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.</p><p><blockquote>这对经济意味着什么？好吧，所有那些习惯于满足需求并大幅推高价格（而不是大幅上涨）的生产商和零售商将面临严峻的选择：要么直接拉低价格，要么销售更少的商品和服务。或者只是等待下一次救助。</blockquote></p><p> One thing is certain:<b>six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.</b></p><p><blockquote>有一点是肯定的：<b>从今天起六个月后，美国经济将会更加丑陋。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉来了：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录崩溃</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉来了：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录崩溃</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 23:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get&nbsp; (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming that<i>the Fed is wrong</i>, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn<i>\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，我们一直在警告价格飙升对企业（“系好安全带！通货膨胀来了！”）和消费者（“这不是暂时的”：对恶性通货膨胀的担忧正在整个美国飙升”）的有害影响，促使即使是无聊的卖方研究也变得（超级）令人兴奋，德意志银行（本周警告称“通胀即将爆发”，“让全球经济坐在一颗定时炸弹上”）和美国银行（“刚刚吐槽了美联储的“暂时”论点”）现在公开声称<i>美联储错了</i>美国正面临前所未有的高得多的非暂时性通胀时期，德国央行甚至警告<i>“政策制定者将面临自上世纪80年代沃尔克/里根时期以来最具挑战性的几年。”</i></blockquote></p><p> But none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>但所有这些都没有吓到美联储承认——或相信——通胀只不过是暂时的。也许就这一次，美联储说得有道理，因为在其他条件相同的情况下，我们指的是工资没有上涨，解决物价上涨的最佳方法是，嗯...更高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Presenting Exhibit A</b>: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.</p><p><blockquote><b>出示附件A</b>：两周前，我们观察到，预计拜登令人兴奋的财富将结束，很快他们将不得不再次量入为出，根据世界大型企业联合会的衡量，美国人的购买意愿（从今天起6个月）在3个主要支出类别：住宅、汽车和主要家用电器。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/440125680ea111da38a7c9adbc47f811\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...</p><p><blockquote>降幅如此之大，相当于购买家电意向的最大单月降幅...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483ef9fdbbe4fe34fc94863262839a85\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... and homes...</p><p><blockquote>...还有家...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea40a948d838e7eaa00fbde1f60e1906\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.</p><p><blockquote>这证实了我们之前提到的，即购房者信心崩溃（由于创纪录的房价）和房屋建筑商信心飙升（也由于创纪录的房价）之间的创纪录差异。猜猜哪一个最终会很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a49f04b77740aab4ba75d00085dd8ada\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to today when we just got<b>Exhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.</b></p><p><blockquote>快进到今天我们刚刚得到<b>证据B：六月密歇根情绪调查。</b></blockquote></p><p> While there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...</p><p><blockquote>虽然这里有一些好消息，但未来1年和5-10年的通胀预期均略有下降...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0cf98553bfedc6500457c9aa3cbe0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.</p><p><blockquote>...我们发现更令人担忧的是首席经济学家理查德·科廷(Richard Curtin)所说的，即由于“通胀上升仍然是消费者最关心的问题”，房屋、汽车和家庭耐用品市场价格的自发参考跌至自1974年11月创纪录以来的最糟糕水平。</blockquote></p><p> And as Curtin adds, \"<b>these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.</b>These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如科廷补充的那样，“<b>这些对市场价格的不利看法将汽车和房屋的整体购买态度降至1982年以来的最低点。</b>对于收入排名前三分之一的人来说，这些下降尤其严重，他们占零售额的一半以上。”</blockquote></p><p> This can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.</p><p><blockquote>这可以从下图中看出，该图显示了由于房屋、耐用品和汽车价格高企而导致的“不良购买条件”的全面记录。换句话说，由于价格飙升，美国正在进行买家罢工。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46f5f27af1090c20579d573274a9f52\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This, for better or worse,<b>screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,</b>as Curting elaborates:</p><p><blockquote>不管是好是坏，<b>尖叫的不仅是滞胀，还有永久上涨的价格，</b>正如柯廷所阐述的：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.</i>   <i><b>The acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.</b></i>  The problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.</p><p><blockquote><i>...在疫情的出现中，由于被压抑的需求和创纪录的储蓄以及就业和收入前景的改善，消费者对价格的敏感度暂时降低。</i><i><b>如果退出时间很长，人们接受疫情导致的价格上涨，使得通胀心理更有可能站稳脚跟。</b></i>问题是：刺激迟早会结束，但到那时价格已经被固定得更高，祝你好运，试图拉低价格。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   <i>While expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.</i>  Oh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.</p><p><blockquote><i>虽然扩张性货币和财政政策仍然是必要的，但随之而来的通胀上升将造成分配不均的影响。六月份，老年人和低收入家庭已经注意到了这些影响。美联储政策语言的转变可能会浇灭任何初期的通胀心理，这对消费者来说并不奇怪，因为三分之二的人已经预计未来一年利率会上升。</i>哦，对于那些说工资上涨可能是永久性的人来说，我们有一些坏消息：雇主非常清楚，延长失业救济金的繁荣将于9月份结束，届时数百万目前失业的工人将涌入劳动力市场，导致工资大幅下降，这就是为什么大多数潜在雇主不提高基本工资，而是提供一次性奖金，顾名思义，这是一次性的。至于更高的工资压力，嗯...等到10月份，当一切发生逆转时，山姆大叔不再是美国私营部门薪酬更高的竞争对手，工资也会暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> What does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.</p><p><blockquote>这对经济意味着什么？好吧，所有那些习惯于满足需求并大幅推高价格（而不是大幅上涨）的生产商和零售商将面临严峻的选择：要么直接拉低价格，要么销售更少的商品和服务。或者只是等待下一次救助。</blockquote></p><p> One thing is certain:<b>six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.</b></p><p><blockquote>有一点是肯定的：<b>从今天起六个月后，美国经济将会更加丑陋。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114257617","content_text":"For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get  (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming thatthe Fed is wrong, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"\nBut none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.\nPresenting Exhibit A: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.\n\nThe drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...\n\n... and homes...\n\nThis confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.\n\nFast forward to today when we just gotExhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.\nWhile there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...\n\n... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.\nAnd as Curtin adds, \"these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"\nThis can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.\n\nThis, for better or worse,screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,as Curting elaborates:\n\n... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.\nThe acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.\n\nThe problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.\n\nWhile expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.\n\nOh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.\nWhat does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.\nOne thing is certain:six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183363054,"gmtCreate":1623308592478,"gmtModify":1634034723147,"author":{"id":"3575639353998529","authorId":"3575639353998529","name":"Rahyenong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575639353998529","idStr":"3575639353998529"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woww","listText":"Woww","text":"Woww","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183363054","repostId":"2142024176","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116813232,"gmtCreate":1622787091626,"gmtModify":1634097996288,"author":{"id":"3575639353998529","authorId":"3575639353998529","name":"Rahyenong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575639353998529","idStr":"3575639353998529"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116813232","repostId":"2140026421","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}