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摸黑大大

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- 摸黑大大摸黑大大
  ·01-16
  什么情况，这就卖了！
  小红书最大股东正谈判出售股票，估值至少为200亿美元
  现有股东拥有优先购买权。
  小红书最大股东正谈判出售股票，估值至少为200亿美元
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- 摸黑大大摸黑大大
  ·2024-07-25
  可以了，老俞算不错了！
  俞敏洪：与辉同行所有收益全给董宇辉，金额超1.4亿元
  公司是送给宇辉的。
  俞敏洪：与辉同行所有收益全给董宇辉，金额超1.4亿元
  1,225 评论
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- 摸黑大大摸黑大大
  ·2023-09-24
  全靠蒙，换个蒙，总有蒙对的。
  摩根大通高呼“超级周期回归”！预言“150美元油价”，未来十年将出现“多次能源危机”
  摩根大通预计，到2030年全球石油缺口将扩大到惊人的710万桶/日，这需要油价大幅上涨。
  摩根大通高呼“超级周期回归”！预言“150美元油价”，未来十年将出现“多次能源危机”
  1,892 评论
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- 摸黑大大摸黑大大
  ·2023-08-31
  $NOCO-NOCO(NCNC)$ 这个票会不会也那个ICCT类似冲一冲呢？
  2,317 评论
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- 摸黑大大摸黑大大
  ·2023-08-31
  $iCoreConnect(ICCT)$ 太牛了！一路向北！
  3,662 评论
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- 摸黑大大摸黑大大
  ·2023-08-30
  $iCoreConnect(ICCT)$ 前后共拿下50个点！
  3,430 评论
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- 摸黑大大摸黑大大
  ·2023-08-30
  $iCoreConnect(ICCT)$ 停到什么时候？有知道的说下！
  2,947 2
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- 摸黑大大摸黑大大
  ·2023-06-20
  哪些A股的票在老虎上可以直接下单买？
  很多A股的票在老虎买不了。怎么可以看出，哪些票可以买，哪些不能买？有没有什么办法？？
  2,714 评论
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  哪些A股的票在老虎上可以直接下单买？
- 摸黑大大摸黑大大
  ·2023-02-22
  有啥用？
  2,231 评论
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- 摸黑大大摸黑大大
  ·2021-09-23
  $The RMR Group Inc(RMR)$这分红怎么没有呀？
  3,655 评论
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18:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>据外媒，小红书的最大股东正在谈判出售这家公司的股票，估值至少为200亿美元，随着TikTok在美国的潜在禁令即将来临，据悉腾讯和其他大公司对这笔交易提出兴趣。</p><p>据知情人士透露，纪源资本 (GGV Capital)、金沙江创投（GSR Ventures）和天图投资 (Tian Tu Capital)正在就出售其在小红书上的部分股份进行谈判，知情人士称，表现出有兴趣的基金包括现有股东红杉资本集团（HongShan Capital Group，原红杉中国）和高瓴投资（Hillhouse Investment）。一位知情人士补充称，腾讯也在考虑是否购买更多股票。</p><p>不过，上述知情人士表示，这笔交易尚未完成，因为现有股东拥有优先购买权，如果潜在买家决定暂时搁置，尤其是在Tiktok的情况仍不稳定的情况下，谈判仍有可能失败。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1519d5db1c5d9c92740aeb7b741278f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193221351","content_text":"据外媒，小红书的最大股东正在谈判出售这家公司的股票，估值至少为200亿美元，随着TikTok在美国的潜在禁令即将来临，据悉腾讯和其他大公司对这笔交易提出兴趣。据知情人士透露，纪源资本 (GGV Capital)、金沙江创投（GSR Ventures）和天图投资 (Tian Tu Capital)正在就出售其在小红书上的部分股份进行谈判，知情人士称，表现出有兴趣的基金包括现有股东红杉资本集团（HongShan Capital Group，原红杉中国）和高瓴投资（Hillhouse Investment）。一位知情人士补充称，腾讯也在考虑是否购买更多股票。不过，上述知情人士表示，这笔交易尚未完成，因为现有股东拥有优先购买权，如果潜在买家决定暂时搁置，尤其是在Tiktok的情况仍不稳定的情况下，谈判仍有可能失败。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3494370112403090","authorId":"3494370112403090","name":"一颗小草","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d72e88c6f8571c1ef5692df194d56c18","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3494370112403090","authorIdStr":"3494370112403090"},"content":"都是些假号炒作，哪有那么多洋人","text":"都是些假号炒作，哪有那么多洋人","html":"都是些假号炒作，哪有那么多洋人"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331401537364192,"gmtCreate":1721915365460,"gmtModify":1721915367282,"author":{"id":"3576498615254643","authorId":"3576498615254643","name":"摸黑大大","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/676076d3ba3c26db2e99ea31849310dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576498615254643","authorIdStr":"3576498615254643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可以了，老俞算不错了！","listText":"可以了，老俞算不错了！","text":"可以了，老俞算不错了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331401537364192","repostId":"1145029000","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1145029000","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1721909324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145029000?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-25 20:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"俞敏洪：与辉同行所有收益全给董宇辉，金额超1.4亿元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145029000","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"公司是送给宇辉的。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>东方甄选创始人俞敏洪再次发布了一则消息，回应与辉同行所有收益分文不取，全给董宇辉和与辉同行。<strong>统计显示，与辉同行自2023年12月22日成立，至2024年6月30日期间，纯利为1.41414亿元人民币。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">俞敏洪称，为解除广大网友的误解，特补充声明如下：</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“宇辉持有与辉同行所需的股权购买款，我也按符合上市公司规则和公司章程规定的方式予以安排支付。”这句话的意思是，宇辉购买公司的钱我安排了，公司是送给宇辉的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">除此之外，与辉同行自成立以来获取的全部收益包括全部利润东方甄选分文未取，全部留给了宇辉和与辉同行，支持他们继续发展。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">再次感谢宇辉为东方甄选的发展做出的卓越贡献！</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdba5142e3d2dff38541da225cf6a5da\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"829\"/></p><p>董宇辉回应称：“感谢俞老师对我，对与辉同行的关心，爱护支持，祝福，正如我声明中提到的那样，此次股权购买款项，也是由俞老师以上市公司规则给予全部支持，另外，俞老师还免费支持了我们运营系统。我个人及与辉同行非常感激俞老师。我也期待，以后能有更多机会和俞老师游山玩水，谈笑风生。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/396e1019e947a3fa2fb3bae0f77af9f9\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"917\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>俞敏洪：与辉同行所有收益全给董宇辉，金额超1.4亿元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n俞敏洪：与辉同行所有收益全给董宇辉，金额超1.4亿元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-25 20:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>东方甄选创始人俞敏洪再次发布了一则消息，回应与辉同行所有收益分文不取，全给董宇辉和与辉同行。<strong>统计显示，与辉同行自2023年12月22日成立，至2024年6月30日期间，纯利为1.41414亿元人民币。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">俞敏洪称，为解除广大网友的误解，特补充声明如下：</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“宇辉持有与辉同行所需的股权购买款，我也按符合上市公司规则和公司章程规定的方式予以安排支付。”这句话的意思是，宇辉购买公司的钱我安排了，公司是送给宇辉的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">除此之外，与辉同行自成立以来获取的全部收益包括全部利润东方甄选分文未取，全部留给了宇辉和与辉同行，支持他们继续发展。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">再次感谢宇辉为东方甄选的发展做出的卓越贡献！</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdba5142e3d2dff38541da225cf6a5da\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"829\"/></p><p>董宇辉回应称：“感谢俞老师对我，对与辉同行的关心，爱护支持，祝福，正如我声明中提到的那样，此次股权购买款项，也是由俞老师以上市公司规则给予全部支持，另外，俞老师还免费支持了我们运营系统。我个人及与辉同行非常感激俞老师。我也期待，以后能有更多机会和俞老师游山玩水，谈笑风生。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/396e1019e947a3fa2fb3bae0f77af9f9\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"917\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d264f0890272ac0510b6ec74e5397fb","relate_stocks":{"EDU":"新东方","01797":"东方甄选","09901":"新东方-S"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145029000","content_text":"东方甄选创始人俞敏洪再次发布了一则消息，回应与辉同行所有收益分文不取，全给董宇辉和与辉同行。统计显示，与辉同行自2023年12月22日成立，至2024年6月30日期间，纯利为1.41414亿元人民币。俞敏洪称，为解除广大网友的误解，特补充声明如下：“宇辉持有与辉同行所需的股权购买款，我也按符合上市公司规则和公司章程规定的方式予以安排支付。”这句话的意思是，宇辉购买公司的钱我安排了，公司是送给宇辉的。除此之外，与辉同行自成立以来获取的全部收益包括全部利润东方甄选分文未取，全部留给了宇辉和与辉同行，支持他们继续发展。再次感谢宇辉为东方甄选的发展做出的卓越贡献！董宇辉回应称：“感谢俞老师对我，对与辉同行的关心，爱护支持，祝福，正如我声明中提到的那样，此次股权购买款项，也是由俞老师以上市公司规则给予全部支持，另外，俞老师还免费支持了我们运营系统。我个人及与辉同行非常感激俞老师。我也期待，以后能有更多机会和俞老师游山玩水，谈笑风生。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":223160511307808,"gmtCreate":1695519031781,"gmtModify":1695519034548,"author":{"id":"3576498615254643","authorId":"3576498615254643","name":"摸黑大大","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/676076d3ba3c26db2e99ea31849310dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576498615254643","authorIdStr":"3576498615254643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"全靠蒙，换个蒙，总有蒙对的。","listText":"全靠蒙，换个蒙，总有蒙对的。","text":"全靠蒙，换个蒙，总有蒙对的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/223160511307808","repostId":"2369865423","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2369865423","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1695461914,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2369865423?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-09-23 17:38","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"摩根大通高呼“超级周期回归”！预言“150美元油价”，未来十年将出现“多次能源危机”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2369865423","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根大通预计，到2030年全球石油缺口将扩大到惊人的710万桶/日，这需要油价大幅上涨。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>摩根大通预计，到2030年全球石油缺口将扩大到惊人的710万桶/日，这需要油价大幅上涨。</strong></p></blockquote><p>过去两年，华尔街最大的能源牛市旗手非<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>莫属，他们正确预判了2022年的油价史诗级暴涨，但在今年的油价暴跌中，高盛被啪啪打脸，其明星分析师、首席大宗商品策略师Jeff Currie更是黯然离职。</p><p>但随着油价从年中低点反弹30%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>决定重新站出来，从高盛手中接过“牛市旗手”的接力棒。</p><p>摩根大通能源分析师Christyan Malek在隔夜发表的报告中写道，<strong>其“超级周期”系列报告强势归来。</strong>摩根大通在2013-2019年期间一直看跌油价，随后于2020年推出了“超期周期”系列报告。今年以来，这家华尔街大行一直处于观望状态。</p><p>鉴于石油行业投资逐渐枯竭，光是绿色能源难以满足全球能源需求，Malek预计，<strong>短期或中期内，油价可能会升至150美元/桶，比布油当前的价格高出62.6%，预计到2030年全球石油缺口扩大到710万桶/日。</strong></p><p>Malek表示：</p><blockquote><p>我们去年12月策略性地做空，在4月获利了结，并从那时起保持中立。虽然自6月以来油价大涨(油价上涨30%，欧洲斯托克600石油和天然气指数SXEP上涨约10%)，但能源股票一直落后。</p><p><strong>我们再次看好全球能源综合市场，重申80美元/桶的长期目标油价，并重申我们在“超级周期IV”报告中的观点，即短期至中期，油价可能会升至150美元/桶，长期为100美元/桶。</strong></p></blockquote><p>Malek解释称，支撑油价上涨的主要因素是：</p><blockquote><p>更长期高息的利率前景减缓了资本流入新供应；</p><p>股权成本上升推动布伦特原油现金盈亏平衡点超过75美元/桶（回购后），因为公司在结构上向股东返还更多现金，反过来又推高了石油的边际成本；</p><p>体制和政策导向压力加速了向绿色能源的过渡和需求见顶恐慌。</p><p>总而言之，<strong>结论是是一个自我强化的“更长期高息”前景下的能源宏观展望，</strong>因为<strong>行业难以证明2030年之后大规模投资的合理性。</strong></p></blockquote><p>摩根大通预测，<strong>2025年石油市场供需缺口为110万桶/日，到2030年则扩大到710万桶/日，这既是对需求前景的乐观预期，也是对供应的悲观预测。</strong></p><p>而每天700万桶的惊人短缺，将需要油价不仅要上涨，而且要大幅上涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd0a96a41b423b26f62dce9c17ef128\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"335\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3505443120\">全球能源股还有上行空间？</h2><p>回到报告，摩根大通接着提到全球石油市场已从风险“折价”(需求)转变为风险溢价(较低超配产能/上升边际成本)，即风险从需求端转向供应端。</p><blockquote><p>我们的分析显示，<strong>石油市场的供需缺口只能依靠沙特的闲置产能(以及其他海湾产油国在较小程度上)来满足</strong>，这使其能够在2025-2030年期间满足创纪录的约55%的边际需求增长，相比之下2005-2018年平均为18%。</p><p>我们估计，OPEC增加产量和耗尽其闲置产能(约420-430万桶/日；沙特320万桶/日)可能会带来约20美元/桶的风险溢价，而我们的长期油价预期为80美元/桶(相比之下，后端曲线涨幅约18%)。</p><p>此外，公司现金收益不仅支撑着长期80美元/桶的价格，而且表明大型能源公司支付资本支出、股利、债务和现金回报的所需油价继续呈上升趋势。</p></blockquote><p><strong>Malek将全球能源股的评级上调至“增持”</strong>，主要原因如下：</p><blockquote><p>更积极的宏观前景(我们更偏好石油而非天然气，因为前者具有结构性利好特征和OPEC减缓的较低波动性)；</p><p>企业现金实际收支平衡（与远期相比），意味着2024年自由现金流收益率（FCF收益率）约为12%，油价若达到100美元/桶，FCF收益率升至15%左右；</p><p>每股收益（EPS）的上行风险。按MTM计算，我们的2024年预期比市场高约10%，而在1月份，我们的预期约10%；</p><p>现金回报率&gt;30%，支撑了相对于市场而言具有吸引力的估值；</p><p>如果全球库存继续下降、油价上涨，OPEC可能会在未来12个月增加产量。从历史上看，这对能源股有利，因为它通常意味着基本面(需求)正在改善。<strong>能源股往往跑赢大盘，并在产量增加时与油价出现正向脱钩。</strong></p><p>我们注意到，<strong>尽管自6月沙特启动100万桶/日的减产计划以来，油价上涨30%，但股票只上涨约10%，即负向脱钩。</strong></p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_3455130677\">系好安全带，未来十年或出现“多次能源危机”</h2><p>尽管看好油价，Malek仍向基本面投资者发出了一个重要信号——<strong>“系好安全带”。</strong></p><blockquote><p>虽然我们认为该行业处于结构性牛市，油价应该正常化走高，但我们预计油价和能源股票将在更宽的价格范围内交易，较高“加权平均资本成本”（WACC）以及围绕ESG/需求见顶的担忧可能加剧油价的波动性。</p><p>我们建议，未来几年采用绝对价格修正（ absolute price corrections），利用这些时机在综合能源市场中建立方向性多头头寸，尤其是石油贝塔系数较高的股票。我们承认与全球衰退等因素相关的下行风险。然而，在这种情况下，供需基本面仍然紧张，能源板块应该跑赢股市大盘。</p><p>重要的是，如果出现需求冲击,我们认为OPEC可以进一步削减产量以帮助稳定油价。此外,由于股票估值面临“更长期高息”带来的风险，我们认为，<strong>当整体股市下跌时，能源行业通常表现优于大盘</strong>，因为该行业可作为宏观对冲通胀、利率和地缘政治风险的工具。</p><p>最后，<strong>我们认为全球经济能够承受三位数的名义油价</strong>，因为按实际价格计算，油价仍低于2008年和2011年的峰值，也低于“需求破坏区”(即石油在全球GDP中的比重&gt;5%，而目前仅约为2.5%)。</p></blockquote><p>针对电动汽车兴起对化石燃料的威胁反复引发的石油需求见顶问题，摩根大通嗤之以鼻：</p><blockquote><p>我们认为，我们的投资期限（2030 年）内，石油需求不会出现见顶，因为需要大量燃料来补充我们全球能源展望中提到的11EJ能源赤字。</p><p>由于供应链、基础设施和关键材料瓶颈，清洁能源系统在接下来的十年中还无法走向足够成熟，捕获技术不够完美，也无法向最终客户输送足够多的“清洁”电力。因此，这对传统燃料施加了更大的压力，以填补缺口并满足新兴市场带动的不断增长的需求。</p></blockquote><p>Malek警告称，如果不增加石油和天然气资本支出，全球仍将面临能源短缺和整个大宗商品大幅涨价的风险。<strong>这可能会在未来十年内，多次引发石油为主导的能源危机，可能比去年欧洲爆发的天然气危机严重得多。</strong></p><blockquote><p>此外，它还有助于使OPEC牢牢掌握全球石油市场的方向盘，在需求增长中占据更大份额，同时有助于缓解油价急剧波动。</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根大通高呼“超级周期回归”！预言“150美元油价”，未来十年将出现“多次能源危机”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根大通高呼“超级周期回归”！预言“150美元油价”，未来十年将出现“多次能源危机”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-23 17:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3698511><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根大通预计，到2030年全球石油缺口将扩大到惊人的710万桶/日，这需要油价大幅上涨。过去两年，华尔街最大的能源牛市旗手非高盛莫属，他们正确预判了2022年的油价史诗级暴涨，但在今年的油价暴跌中，高盛被啪啪打脸，其明星分析师、首席大宗商品策略师Jeff Currie更是黯然离职。但随着油价从年中低点反弹30%，摩根大通决定重新站出来，从高盛手中接过“牛市旗手”的接力棒。摩根大通能源分析师...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3698511\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c8a8d46ae4d827b569feff33fabbfc4","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU1670627923.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - 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Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3698511","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2369865423","content_text":"摩根大通预计，到2030年全球石油缺口将扩大到惊人的710万桶/日，这需要油价大幅上涨。过去两年，华尔街最大的能源牛市旗手非高盛莫属，他们正确预判了2022年的油价史诗级暴涨，但在今年的油价暴跌中，高盛被啪啪打脸，其明星分析师、首席大宗商品策略师Jeff Currie更是黯然离职。但随着油价从年中低点反弹30%，摩根大通决定重新站出来，从高盛手中接过“牛市旗手”的接力棒。摩根大通能源分析师Christyan Malek在隔夜发表的报告中写道，其“超级周期”系列报告强势归来。摩根大通在2013-2019年期间一直看跌油价，随后于2020年推出了“超期周期”系列报告。今年以来，这家华尔街大行一直处于观望状态。鉴于石油行业投资逐渐枯竭，光是绿色能源难以满足全球能源需求，Malek预计，短期或中期内，油价可能会升至150美元/桶，比布油当前的价格高出62.6%，预计到2030年全球石油缺口扩大到710万桶/日。Malek表示：我们去年12月策略性地做空，在4月获利了结，并从那时起保持中立。虽然自6月以来油价大涨(油价上涨30%，欧洲斯托克600石油和天然气指数SXEP上涨约10%)，但能源股票一直落后。我们再次看好全球能源综合市场，重申80美元/桶的长期目标油价，并重申我们在“超级周期IV”报告中的观点，即短期至中期，油价可能会升至150美元/桶，长期为100美元/桶。Malek解释称，支撑油价上涨的主要因素是：更长期高息的利率前景减缓了资本流入新供应；股权成本上升推动布伦特原油现金盈亏平衡点超过75美元/桶（回购后），因为公司在结构上向股东返还更多现金，反过来又推高了石油的边际成本；体制和政策导向压力加速了向绿色能源的过渡和需求见顶恐慌。总而言之，结论是是一个自我强化的“更长期高息”前景下的能源宏观展望，因为行业难以证明2030年之后大规模投资的合理性。摩根大通预测，2025年石油市场供需缺口为110万桶/日，到2030年则扩大到710万桶/日，这既是对需求前景的乐观预期，也是对供应的悲观预测。而每天700万桶的惊人短缺，将需要油价不仅要上涨，而且要大幅上涨。全球能源股还有上行空间？回到报告，摩根大通接着提到全球石油市场已从风险“折价”(需求)转变为风险溢价(较低超配产能/上升边际成本)，即风险从需求端转向供应端。我们的分析显示，石油市场的供需缺口只能依靠沙特的闲置产能(以及其他海湾产油国在较小程度上)来满足，这使其能够在2025-2030年期间满足创纪录的约55%的边际需求增长，相比之下2005-2018年平均为18%。我们估计，OPEC增加产量和耗尽其闲置产能(约420-430万桶/日；沙特320万桶/日)可能会带来约20美元/桶的风险溢价，而我们的长期油价预期为80美元/桶(相比之下，后端曲线涨幅约18%)。此外，公司现金收益不仅支撑着长期80美元/桶的价格，而且表明大型能源公司支付资本支出、股利、债务和现金回报的所需油价继续呈上升趋势。Malek将全球能源股的评级上调至“增持”，主要原因如下：更积极的宏观前景(我们更偏好石油而非天然气，因为前者具有结构性利好特征和OPEC减缓的较低波动性)；企业现金实际收支平衡（与远期相比），意味着2024年自由现金流收益率（FCF收益率）约为12%，油价若达到100美元/桶，FCF收益率升至15%左右；每股收益（EPS）的上行风险。按MTM计算，我们的2024年预期比市场高约10%，而在1月份，我们的预期约10%；现金回报率>30%，支撑了相对于市场而言具有吸引力的估值；如果全球库存继续下降、油价上涨，OPEC可能会在未来12个月增加产量。从历史上看，这对能源股有利，因为它通常意味着基本面(需求)正在改善。能源股往往跑赢大盘，并在产量增加时与油价出现正向脱钩。我们注意到，尽管自6月沙特启动100万桶/日的减产计划以来，油价上涨30%，但股票只上涨约10%，即负向脱钩。系好安全带，未来十年或出现“多次能源危机”尽管看好油价，Malek仍向基本面投资者发出了一个重要信号——“系好安全带”。虽然我们认为该行业处于结构性牛市，油价应该正常化走高，但我们预计油价和能源股票将在更宽的价格范围内交易，较高“加权平均资本成本”（WACC）以及围绕ESG/需求见顶的担忧可能加剧油价的波动性。我们建议，未来几年采用绝对价格修正（ absolute price corrections），利用这些时机在综合能源市场中建立方向性多头头寸，尤其是石油贝塔系数较高的股票。我们承认与全球衰退等因素相关的下行风险。然而，在这种情况下，供需基本面仍然紧张，能源板块应该跑赢股市大盘。重要的是，如果出现需求冲击,我们认为OPEC可以进一步削减产量以帮助稳定油价。此外,由于股票估值面临“更长期高息”带来的风险，我们认为，当整体股市下跌时，能源行业通常表现优于大盘，因为该行业可作为宏观对冲通胀、利率和地缘政治风险的工具。最后，我们认为全球经济能够承受三位数的名义油价，因为按实际价格计算，油价仍低于2008年和2011年的峰值，也低于“需求破坏区”(即石油在全球GDP中的比重>5%，而目前仅约为2.5%)。针对电动汽车兴起对化石燃料的威胁反复引发的石油需求见顶问题，摩根大通嗤之以鼻：我们认为，我们的投资期限（2030 年）内，石油需求不会出现见顶，因为需要大量燃料来补充我们全球能源展望中提到的11EJ能源赤字。由于供应链、基础设施和关键材料瓶颈，清洁能源系统在接下来的十年中还无法走向足够成熟，捕获技术不够完美，也无法向最终客户输送足够多的“清洁”电力。因此，这对传统燃料施加了更大的压力，以填补缺口并满足新兴市场带动的不断增长的需求。Malek警告称，如果不增加石油和天然气资本支出，全球仍将面临能源短缺和整个大宗商品大幅涨价的风险。这可能会在未来十年内，多次引发石油为主导的能源危机，可能比去年欧洲爆发的天然气危机严重得多。此外，它还有助于使OPEC牢牢掌握全球石油市场的方向盘，在需求增长中占据更大份额，同时有助于缓解油价急剧波动。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":214899471417488,"gmtCreate":1693476444112,"gmtModify":1693476445899,"author":{"id":"3576498615254643","authorId":"3576498615254643","name":"摸黑大大","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/676076d3ba3c26db2e99ea31849310dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576498615254643","authorIdStr":"3576498615254643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCNC\">$NOCO-NOCO(NCNC)$ &nbsp;</a>这个票会不会也那个ICCT类似冲一冲呢？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCNC\">$NOCO-NOCO(NCNC)$ 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