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CHUNGWAIQIAN
CHUNGWAIQIAN
·
2021-08-11
Pls like
Elon Musk’s SpaceX Could Be an Infrastructure Bill Loser. Here’s Why.<blockquote>埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的 SpaceX 可能会成为基础设施法案的输家。原因如下。</blockquote>
There are unintended consequences to almost any decision. AndTeslaCEO Elon Musk’s SpaceX might be im
Elon Musk’s SpaceX Could Be an Infrastructure Bill Loser. Here’s Why.<blockquote>埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的 SpaceX 可能会成为基础设施法案的输家。原因如下。</blockquote>
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CHUNGWAIQIAN
CHUNGWAIQIAN
·
2021-07-28
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How Plug Power Could Generate 7x Returns Over The Next Decade<blockquote>普拉格能源如何在未来十年内产生 7 倍的回报</blockquote>
Summary PLUG is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European market
How Plug Power Could Generate 7x Returns Over The Next Decade<blockquote>普拉格能源如何在未来十年内产生 7 倍的回报</blockquote>
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CHUNGWAIQIAN
CHUNGWAIQIAN
·
2021-07-26
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Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.<blockquote>特斯拉今天公布收益。这是最重要的。</blockquote>
Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report. The
Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.<blockquote>特斯拉今天公布收益。这是最重要的。</blockquote>
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CHUNGWAIQIAN
CHUNGWAIQIAN
·
2021-07-25
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Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>
Summary IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.
Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>
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CHUNGWAIQIAN
CHUNGWAIQIAN
·
2021-07-24
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Tesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.<blockquote>特斯拉的收益即将到来。这是一个重要的数字。</blockquote>
Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likel
Tesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.<blockquote>特斯拉的收益即将到来。这是一个重要的数字。</blockquote>
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CHUNGWAIQIAN
CHUNGWAIQIAN
·
2021-07-23
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非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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CHUNGWAIQIAN
CHUNGWAIQIAN
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2021-07-23
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CHUNGWAIQIAN
CHUNGWAIQIAN
·
2021-07-22
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CHUNGWAIQIAN
CHUNGWAIQIAN
·
2021-07-21
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CHUNGWAIQIAN
CHUNGWAIQIAN
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2021-07-20
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like ","listText":"Pls like ","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892236288","repostId":"1115544672","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115544672","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628652297,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1115544672?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-11 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Elon Musk’s SpaceX Could Be an Infrastructure Bill Loser. Here’s Why.<blockquote>埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的 SpaceX 可能会成为基础设施法案的输家。原因如下。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115544672","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"There are unintended consequences to almost any decision. AndTeslaCEO Elon Musk’s SpaceX might be im","content":"<p>There are unintended consequences to almost any decision. AndTeslaCEO Elon Musk’s SpaceX might be impacted by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of them.</p><p><blockquote>几乎任何决定都会产生意想不到的后果。特斯拉EO埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX可能会受到影响<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>其中。</blockquote></p><p> The2,700-plus-page trillion-dollar infrastructure package moving its way through the U.S. Senate has about $65 billion pegged for ruralbroadband internet. That’s surely a good thing. In this modern world, everyone needs high-speed internet access for work, learning, and, frankly, streamingNetflix(ticker: NFLX).</p><p><blockquote>2700多页的万亿美元基础设施一揽子计划正在美国推进。参议院为农村宽带互联网拨款约650亿美元。这当然是件好事。在这个现代世界，每个人都需要高速互联网接入来工作、学习，坦率地说，还需要流媒体网飞（股票代码：NFLX）。</blockquote></p><p> The bill would help companies likeAT&T(T) andCharter <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JCS\">Communications</a>(CHTR) deliver coverage to rural areas. AT&T CEOJohn Stankeycalled the benefits of a potential infrastructure bill “icing on the cake” back in April. But AT&T may not even need the support. “I think we can move forward without this policy to deliver to you what we said we were going to deliver,” the CEO said.</p><p><blockquote>该法案将帮助 &T(T) 和 Charter 等公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JCS\">通讯</a>（CHTR）向农村地区提供覆盖。早在四月份，美国电话电报公司首席执行官约翰-斯坦基（John Stankey）就称潜在基础设施法案的好处是 “锦上添花”。但是美国电话电报公司可能甚至不需要支持。“首席执行官说：”我认为，在没有这项政策的情况下，我们也可以继续前进，向你们提供我们所说的要提供的东西。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, funding for broadband technology may actually hurt the next generation of high-speed internet technology—or make it harder for new tech to compete.</p><p><blockquote>最终，对宽带技术的资助实际上可能会损害下一代高速互联网技术，或者使新技术更难竞争。</blockquote></p><p> SpaceXwants to offer high-speed, space-based internet to the masses.Elon Musk’sspace company has launched hundreds of its smallStarlink satellitesinto low earth orbit.</p><p><blockquote>埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的太空公司已将数百颗smallStarlink卫星发射到近地轨道。</blockquote></p><p> The SpaceX broadband business could be worth$42 billion, according to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analystAdam Jonas. That was his estimate about a year ago. SpaceX isn’t a publicly traded company, and analysts don’t frequently update numbers for private firms—if they maintain any at all.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，SpaceX 宽带业务价值可能达到 420 亿美元<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师乔纳斯。这是他大约一年前的估计。SpaceX 不是一家上市公司，分析师也不会经常更新私营公司的数据--如果他们有的话。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever the Starlink number is today, it’s a big part of the$74 billionprivate market valuation SpaceX reached in early 2021.</p><p><blockquote>无论星链今天的数字是多少，它都是 SpaceX 在 2021 年初达到的 740 亿美元私人市场估值的重要组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> Starlink can, in theory, deliver internet anywhere, but it is better in rural areas, according to Musk. Now Starlink may have a healthier competitor—the existing broadband industry, with a $65 billion subsidy.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克表示，理论上，星链可以在任何地方提供互联网，但在农村地区更好。现在星链可能有了一个更健康的竞争对手——现有的宽带行业，有650亿美元的补贴。</blockquote></p><p> Yet the subsidy might not change the competitive position all that much. The economics of the space-based internet offerings isn’t set in stone. Jonas assumes Starlink will charge about $25 to $50 a month for its high-speed internet service. That, however, is an early estimate and doesn’t really consider regional differences and customers’ ability to pay around the globe.</p><p><blockquote>然而，补贴可能不会改变竞争地位太大。天基互联网产品的经济效益并非一成不变。乔纳斯假设星链每月将为其高速互联网服务收取约25至50美元的费用。不过，这只是一个早期估计，并没有真正考虑地区差异和客户在全球范围内的支付能力。</blockquote></p><p> The broadband players, of course, also have existing businesses that make money. Those profits could be used to subsidize any rural initiatives. Business is complicated. Government decisions sometimes add to the complexity. That is one thing lawmakers might want to consider when deciding who gets taxpayer money.</p><p><blockquote>当然，宽带运营商也有现有企业赚钱。这些利润可以用来补贴任何农村倡议。生意很复杂。政府决策有时会增加复杂性。这是立法者在决定谁得到纳税人的钱时可能要考虑的一件事。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Elon Musk’s SpaceX Could Be an Infrastructure Bill Loser. 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Here’s Why.<blockquote>埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的 SpaceX 可能会成为基础设施法案的输家。原因如下。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market Wacth</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-11 11:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There are unintended consequences to almost any decision. AndTeslaCEO Elon Musk’s SpaceX might be impacted by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of them.</p><p><blockquote>几乎任何决定都会产生意想不到的后果。特斯拉EO埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX可能会受到影响<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>其中。</blockquote></p><p> The2,700-plus-page trillion-dollar infrastructure package moving its way through the U.S. Senate has about $65 billion pegged for ruralbroadband internet. That’s surely a good thing. In this modern world, everyone needs high-speed internet access for work, learning, and, frankly, streamingNetflix(ticker: NFLX).</p><p><blockquote>2700多页的万亿美元基础设施一揽子计划正在美国推进。参议院为农村宽带互联网拨款约650亿美元。这当然是件好事。在这个现代世界，每个人都需要高速互联网接入来工作、学习，坦率地说，还需要流媒体网飞（股票代码：NFLX）。</blockquote></p><p> The bill would help companies likeAT&T(T) andCharter <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JCS\">Communications</a>(CHTR) deliver coverage to rural areas. AT&T CEOJohn Stankeycalled the benefits of a potential infrastructure bill “icing on the cake” back in April. But AT&T may not even need the support. “I think we can move forward without this policy to deliver to you what we said we were going to deliver,” the CEO said.</p><p><blockquote>该法案将帮助 &T(T) 和 Charter 等公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JCS\">通讯</a>（CHTR）向农村地区提供覆盖。早在四月份，美国电话电报公司首席执行官约翰-斯坦基（John Stankey）就称潜在基础设施法案的好处是 “锦上添花”。但是美国电话电报公司可能甚至不需要支持。“首席执行官说：”我认为，在没有这项政策的情况下，我们也可以继续前进，向你们提供我们所说的要提供的东西。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, funding for broadband technology may actually hurt the next generation of high-speed internet technology—or make it harder for new tech to compete.</p><p><blockquote>最终，对宽带技术的资助实际上可能会损害下一代高速互联网技术，或者使新技术更难竞争。</blockquote></p><p> SpaceXwants to offer high-speed, space-based internet to the masses.Elon Musk’sspace company has launched hundreds of its smallStarlink satellitesinto low earth orbit.</p><p><blockquote>埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的太空公司已将数百颗smallStarlink卫星发射到近地轨道。</blockquote></p><p> The SpaceX broadband business could be worth$42 billion, according to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analystAdam Jonas. That was his estimate about a year ago. SpaceX isn’t a publicly traded company, and analysts don’t frequently update numbers for private firms—if they maintain any at all.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，SpaceX 宽带业务价值可能达到 420 亿美元<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师乔纳斯。这是他大约一年前的估计。SpaceX 不是一家上市公司，分析师也不会经常更新私营公司的数据--如果他们有的话。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever the Starlink number is today, it’s a big part of the$74 billionprivate market valuation SpaceX reached in early 2021.</p><p><blockquote>无论星链今天的数字是多少，它都是 SpaceX 在 2021 年初达到的 740 亿美元私人市场估值的重要组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> Starlink can, in theory, deliver internet anywhere, but it is better in rural areas, according to Musk. Now Starlink may have a healthier competitor—the existing broadband industry, with a $65 billion subsidy.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克表示，理论上，星链可以在任何地方提供互联网，但在农村地区更好。现在星链可能有了一个更健康的竞争对手——现有的宽带行业，有650亿美元的补贴。</blockquote></p><p> Yet the subsidy might not change the competitive position all that much. The economics of the space-based internet offerings isn’t set in stone. Jonas assumes Starlink will charge about $25 to $50 a month for its high-speed internet service. That, however, is an early estimate and doesn’t really consider regional differences and customers’ ability to pay around the globe.</p><p><blockquote>然而，补贴可能不会改变竞争地位太大。天基互联网产品的经济效益并非一成不变。乔纳斯假设星链每月将为其高速互联网服务收取约25至50美元的费用。不过，这只是一个早期估计，并没有真正考虑地区差异和客户在全球范围内的支付能力。</blockquote></p><p> The broadband players, of course, also have existing businesses that make money. Those profits could be used to subsidize any rural initiatives. Business is complicated. Government decisions sometimes add to the complexity. That is one thing lawmakers might want to consider when deciding who gets taxpayer money.</p><p><blockquote>当然，宽带运营商也有现有企业赚钱。这些利润可以用来补贴任何农村倡议。生意很复杂。政府决策有时会增加复杂性。这是立法者在决定谁得到纳税人的钱时可能要考虑的一件事。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/how-this-infrastructure-bill-will-hurt-spacex-51628006007?mod=home-page\">Market Wacth</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/how-this-infrastructure-bill-will-hurt-spacex-51628006007?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115544672","content_text":"There are unintended consequences to almost any decision. AndTeslaCEO Elon Musk’s SpaceX might be impacted by one of them.\nThe2,700-plus-page trillion-dollar infrastructure package moving its way through the U.S. Senate has about $65 billion pegged for ruralbroadband internet. That’s surely a good thing. In this modern world, everyone needs high-speed internet access for work, learning, and, frankly, streamingNetflix(ticker: NFLX).\nThe bill would help companies likeAT&T(T) andCharter Communications(CHTR) deliver coverage to rural areas. AT&T CEOJohn Stankeycalled the benefits of a potential infrastructure bill “icing on the cake” back in April. But AT&T may not even need the support. “I think we can move forward without this policy to deliver to you what we said we were going to deliver,” the CEO said.\nIn the end, funding for broadband technology may actually hurt the next generation of high-speed internet technology—or make it harder for new tech to compete.\nSpaceXwants to offer high-speed, space-based internet to the masses.Elon Musk’sspace company has launched hundreds of its smallStarlink satellitesinto low earth orbit.\nThe SpaceX broadband business could be worth$42 billion, according to Morgan Stanley analystAdam Jonas. That was his estimate about a year ago. SpaceX isn’t a publicly traded company, and analysts don’t frequently update numbers for private firms—if they maintain any at all.\nWhatever the Starlink number is today, it’s a big part of the$74 billionprivate market valuation SpaceX reached in early 2021.\nStarlink can, in theory, deliver internet anywhere, but it is better in rural areas, according to Musk. Now Starlink may have a healthier competitor—the existing broadband industry, with a $65 billion subsidy.\nYet the subsidy might not change the competitive position all that much. The economics of the space-based internet offerings isn’t set in stone. Jonas assumes Starlink will charge about $25 to $50 a month for its high-speed internet service. That, however, is an early estimate and doesn’t really consider regional differences and customers’ ability to pay around the globe.\nThe broadband players, of course, also have existing businesses that make money. Those profits could be used to subsidize any rural initiatives. Business is complicated. Government decisions sometimes add to the complexity. That is one thing lawmakers might want to consider when deciding who gets taxpayer money.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803927716,"gmtCreate":1627402955035,"gmtModify":1631890760650,"author":{"id":"3577542115836824","authorId":"3577542115836824","name":"CHUNGWAIQIAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a31f56452fb34c4653d7867c48355ad8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577542115836824","authorIdStr":"3577542115836824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803927716","repostId":"1165178450","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165178450","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627399581,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1165178450?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 23:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Plug Power Could Generate 7x Returns Over The Next Decade<blockquote>普拉格能源如何在未来十年内产生 7 倍的回报</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165178450","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPLUG is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European market","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>PLUG is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European markets.</li> <li>The company boasts advanced technology and strong growth momentum.</li> <li>We outline the company's path to growing from a $15 billion market cap to a $100 billion market cap over the next decade.</li> <li>That said, PLUG still faces significant risks to its thesis that investors should keep in mind.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06bea0bef6d6ac8eab14c3fceb2cccae\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>JONGHO SHIN/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PLUG是北美和欧洲市场领先的氢燃料电池交钥匙供应商。</li><li>公司技术先进，增长势头强劲。</li><li>我们概述了该公司在未来十年从 150 亿美元市值增长到 1000 亿美元市值的路径。</li><li>尽管如此，PLUG 的论点仍然面临重大风险，投资者应该牢记这一点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JONGHO SHIN/iStock via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power (PLUG) is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European markets. The company boasts advanced technology and strong growth momentum which should propel it to significant appreciation over the long term. In this article we outline the company's path to growing from a $15 billion market cap to a $100 billion market cap (nearly 7x returns) over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源（PLUG）是北美和欧洲市场领先的氢燃料电池交钥匙供应商。该公司拥有先进的技术和强劲的增长势头，这应该会推动其长期大幅升值。在本文中，我们概述了该公司在未来十年从 150 亿美元市值增长到 1000 亿美元市值（近 7 倍回报）的路径。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. Addressable Market Potential</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.可寻址的市场潜力</b></blockquote></p><p> With the massive tailwinds for green energy and ESG investing at the moment, the hydrogen fuel cell market is likely to enjoy strong growth momentum for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>随着目前绿色能源和ESG投资的巨大推动，氢燃料电池市场可能会在未来许多年内享有强劲的增长势头。</blockquote></p><p> First and foremost, the Biden administration has executed an aggressive about-face from the previous administration in its disposition towards clean energy and fossil fuels. Between executive orders and rejoining the Paris Climate Accords, the U.S. Government is increasingly incentivizing green energy investment and consumption. The European Union and China are also increasingly headed in this direction.</p><p><blockquote>首先也是最重要的是，拜登政府在对清洁能源和化石燃料的态度上与前任政府相比发生了激进的大转变。在行政命令和重新加入巴黎气候协议之间，美国政府越来越多地鼓励绿色能源投资和消费。欧盟和中国也越来越多地朝着这个方向前进。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the ESG investing movement has taken off to where it now accounts for an astonishing one-third of total assets under management in the United States. Given that so much capital is attracted to environmentally friendly investments, companies across the board - including in the hydrocarbon sector - are increasingly adopting policies that appeal to the environmentally-conscious investor.</p><p><blockquote>其次，ESG投资运动已经起飞，目前占美国管理总资产的三分之一，惊人。鉴于如此多的资本被环保投资所吸引，包括碳氢化合物行业在内的各类公司都越来越多地采取吸引具有环保意识的投资者的政策。</blockquote></p><p> Third, the disruption and transformation of the automotive industry to reduce emissions is driving strong demand for new fuel technologies.</p><p><blockquote>第三，汽车行业为减少排放而进行的颠覆和转型正在推动对新燃料技术的强劲需求。</blockquote></p><p> Finally - largely due to the heavy investment and market demand - green technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells are seeing costs decline dramatically, making them increasingly competitive on the marketplace.</p><p><blockquote>最后，主要由于大量投资和市场需求，氢燃料电池等绿色技术的成本正在大幅下降，使其在市场上的竞争力越来越强。</blockquote></p><p> All of this should lead to continued strong growth in the sector. In fact, U.S. Hydrogen demand is expected to be 17 million metric tons per year by 2030 and 63 million metric tons by 2050, which is pretty substantial growth from the 10 million metric tons consumed in the U.S. last year. Globally, the hydrogen generation industry is expected to reach $201 billion by 2025 and should continue to grow rapidly in the decades to follow similar to how it is expected to grow in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都将导致该行业持续强劲增长。事实上，到 2030 年，美国氢气需求预计将达到每年 1700 万公吨，到 2050 年将达到 6300 万公吨，比去年美国消耗的 1000 万公吨大幅增长。在全球范围内，氢能发电行业预计到 2025 年将达到 2010 亿美元，并将在未来几十年内继续快速增长，类似于美国的预期增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0541b1fd23777a900f3e1a1102206d7b\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>#2. Market Share Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2.市场份额驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> We believe that PLUG has a strong chance at capturing a sizable portion of this massive addressable market for the following reasons.</p><p><blockquote>我们相信，出于以下原因，PLUG 很有可能占领这个庞大的潜在市场的很大一部分。</blockquote></p><p> First and foremost, it has advanced technology and early mover advantages in the space. It owns numerous hydrogen energy systems including proton exchange membrane fuel cells, hybrid batteries, hydrogen storage, hydrogen dispensing, and fuel processing. Its flagship product is the electric vehicle focused GenDrive system that is complemented by their GenFuel and GenCare systems.</p><p><blockquote>首先也是最重要的是，它在该领域拥有先进的技术和先发优势。它拥有众多氢能系统，包括质子交换膜燃料电池、混合电池、储氢、加氢和燃料加工。其旗舰产品是专注于电动汽车的GenDrive系统，并辅以GenFuel和GenCare系统。</blockquote></p><p> Second of all, it has a foothold in both North America and Europe which means that it has significantly more growth potential than if it was solely focused on a single continent. In fact, North America and Europe are likely to be the leaders in Hydrogen adaptation for the foreseeable future, so PLUG is well-positioned to capture a significant portion of the global market share.</p><p><blockquote>其次，它在北美和欧洲都有立足点，这意味着它比只专注于一个大陆具有更大的增长潜力。事实上，在可预见的未来，北美和欧洲可能会成为氢适应的领导者，因此 PLUG 处于有利地位，可以占据很大一部分全球市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Third, PLUG has strong growth momentum right now and is winning business from some of the biggest companies in the world, including Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), and General Motors (GM) either currently using their products or expected to become customers in the near future. As a result, we expect the 76% year-over-year revenue growth in its most recent quarterly report (128% year-over-year growth in their fuel cell systems and related infrastructure segment) to be sustainable for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>第三，PLUG 目前拥有强劲的增长势头，并正在赢得世界上一些最大公司的业务，包括亚马逊 (AMZN)、沃尔玛 (WMT)、家得宝 (HD) 和通用汽车 (GM)，这些公司目前正在使用他们的产品或预计在不久的将来成为客户。因此，我们预计其最新季度报告中 76% 的收入同比增长（燃料电池系统和相关基础设施部门同比增长 128%）在可预见的未来将是可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> In fact,analysts expect revenue to grow by 57% in 2022, which should push the company to EBITDA profitability.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，分析师预计 2022 年收入将增长 57%，这将推动该公司实现 EBITDA 盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3. Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3.估值</b></blockquote></p><p> While PLUG certainly operates in a hot industry and has numerous drivers that should enable it to capture significant market share, the company is also not cheap as it is currently running a loss.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 PLUG 确实在一个热门行业运营，并且拥有众多驱动因素，使其能够占据大量市场份额，但该公司也不便宜，因为它目前正在亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the other hand, its EV/revenue figure is not outlandish given their growth runway as PLUG currently trades at 29.8x expected 2021 sales and 21x expected 2022 sales.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，考虑到其增长跑道，其电动汽车/收入数据并不奇怪，因为 PLUG 目前的交易价格是 2021 年销量预期的 29.8 倍，2022 年销量预期的 21 倍。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, with a product gross margin of 38% that expanded by a whopping 600 basis points in PLUG's most recent earnings release, its profitability potential is significant. Overall, PLUG's gross margin is expected to be a fairly weak 9.71% in 2021, but is expected to nearly double in 2022 to 18.93%. This is also a massive increase from 2017 when the gross margin was a mere 1.2%. The EBITDA margin is also expected to be a somewhat respectable 10.7% in 2022 as well.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，PLUG 最近发布的财报显示，产品毛利率为 38%，扩大了 600 个基点，其盈利潜力巨大。总体而言，PLUG 的毛利率预计在 2021 年将相当疲软，为 9.71%，但预计在 2022 年将几乎翻一番，达到 18.93%。这也比 2017 年毛利率仅为 1.2% 时大幅增长。预计 2022 年 EBITDA 利润率也将达到 10.7%，相当可观。</blockquote></p><p> If PLUG can continue to leverage its strong technology and massive expected economies of scale in the coming years, we think it is reasonable for it to push gross margins to 30% and net margins to 20% by 2032. Meanwhile, if it can capture even just 3% of global hydrogen market share by 2032 and the global market reaches roughly $390 billion by then (it is expected to exceed $200 billion by 2025 and will likely be growing by around 10% per year at least for the foreseeable future), PLUG should be generating $11.7 billion in revenues by 2032. That would assume a 31.9% revenue CAGR between 2022 and 2032, which we also believe is quite reasonable given its aforementioned growth momentum and competitive strengths.</p><p><blockquote>如果 PLUG 能够在未来几年继续利用其强大的技术和巨大的预期规模经济，我们认为到 2032 年将毛利率提高到 30%，净利润率提高到 20% 是合理的。与此同时，如果到 2032 年它能够占据全球氢市场份额的 3%，并且届时全球市场规模达到约 3900 亿美元（预计到 2025 年将超过 2000 亿美元，并且可能每年增长约 10%至少在可预见的未来），到 2032 年，PLUG 的收入将达到 117 亿美元。假设 2022 年至 2032 年间的收入复合年增长率为 31.9%，考虑到其上述增长势头和竞争优势，我们也认为这是相当合理的。</blockquote></p><p> At a 20% net margin, that would put its net earnings at over $2.3 billion in 2032, which would require a 42.7x price to earnings multiple to warrant a $100 billion market cap. Is this a reasonable multiple? It depends a lot on interest rates, but, given that the current S&P 500 (SPY) multiple is ~31x and PLUG's growth rate and growth runway will likely still be vastly superior to where the S&P 500's is today, it certainly does not seem too far-fetched to us.</p><p><blockquote>按照 20% 的净利润率计算，到 2032 年，其净利润将超过 23 亿美元，这需要 42.7 倍的市盈率才能保证 1000 亿美元的市值。这是一个合理的倍数吗？这在很大程度上取决于利率，但是，鉴于目前标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）市盈率约为 31 倍，并且 PLUG 的增长率和增长跑道可能仍然远远优于标准普尔 500 指数目前的水平，这当然不会显得太牵强对我们来说。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02cad870534d53e0544cd0389c837b1d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#4. Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#4.风险</b></blockquote></p><p> If this model pans out how we think it could, PLUG is a very attractive buy on the latest pullback.</p><p><blockquote>如果这种模式如我们想象的那样发展，那么在最近的回调中，PLUG 是一个非常有吸引力的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e86493a3f4fcb61e8bec0de36f0f9b7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of course, it assumes that PLUG will be able to overcome several risks, so investors should keep in mind that it remains a very speculative investment at this point.</p><p><blockquote>当然，它假设PLUG将能够克服一些风险，因此投资者应该记住，目前它仍然是一项非常投机性的投资。</blockquote></p><p> First and foremost, it will demand that PLUG can maintain highly competitive technology in a space that is almost certain to grow increasingly competitive in the years to come.</p><p><blockquote>首先也是最重要的是，它将要求 PLUG 能够在一个几乎肯定会在未来几年变得越来越竞争的领域保持高度竞争力的技术。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, PLUG will need to balance investing in recruiting the best talent in the industry to sustain and increase its technological edge with investing in effective marketing while also avoiding diluting shareholders or running up a big debt burden. Given that it is not yet free cash flow positive, this could prove challenging in the short term. That said, their nearly $4.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents on hand should enable it to reach free cash flow positivity without stressing its balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>此外，PLUG 需要在招聘业内最优秀人才以维持和增加其技术优势的投资与投资有效营销之间取得平衡，同时避免稀释股东或背负沉重的债务负担。鉴于自由现金流尚未为正，这在短期内可能具有挑战性。也就是说，他们手头近 48 亿美元的现金和现金等价物应该能够使其实现自由现金流正值，而不会给其资产负债表带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> Third, hydrogen power has not been without its critics over the years, most notably Tesla's (TSLA) founder and CEO Elon Musk. The wildly popular and visionary entrepreneur argued that using hydrogen to store energy can never be as efficient as storing electricity in a battery. In fact, he has gone so far as to say that using hydrogen fuel cells (which he calls \"fool cells\") to power vehicles is \"mind-bogglingly stupid.\" Obviously many individuals and corporations disagree with Musk's assessment and he has a clear incentive to try to discredit the technology, but this should still be viewed as a significant risk to keep an eye on. If hydrogen were to fall out of favor, it would significantly reduce the upside for PLUG and could even lead to permanent impairments from current levels if severe enough.</p><p><blockquote>第三，多年来，氢能并非没有批评者，其中最著名的是特斯拉 (TSLA) 创始人兼首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk)。这位广受欢迎且富有远见的企业家认为，使用氢来储存能量永远不会像在电池中储存电力那样高效。事实上，他甚至表示使用氢燃料电池（他称之为“傻瓜电池”）为车辆提供动力是“令人难以置信的愚蠢”。显然，许多个人和公司不同意马斯克的评估，他有明显的动机试图诋毁这项技术，但这仍应被视为一个需要密切关注的重大风险。如果氢失去青睐，它将显着降低 PLUG 的上涨空间，如果足够严重，甚至可能导致当前水平的永久性损害。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> PLUG is a competitively positioned company in a rapidly-growing industry. Not only that, but the industry's growth runway looks promising for many decades to come. With advanced technology, early mover advantages, and a foothold on the two most fertile continents for Hydrogen technology, PLUG should be able to generate strong revenue growth for a long time to come.</p><p><blockquote>PLUG是一家在快速增长的行业中具有竞争力的公司。不仅如此，该行业的增长跑道在未来几十年看起来很有希望。凭借先进的技术、先发优势以及氢技术最肥沃的两个大陆的立足点，PLUG 应该能够在未来很长一段时间内实现强劲的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Given our assumptions outlined in this article, we think that PLUG could very possibly achieve a $100 billion market cap in about a decade. This would represent a 667% total return (20.9% CAGR) over that span assuming no further share dilution.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于我们在本文中概述的假设，我们认为 PLUG 很有可能在大约十年内达到 1000 亿美元的市值。假设没有进一步稀释股票，这意味着在此期间的总回报率为 667%（复合年增长率为 20.9%）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That said, PLUG is also far from a conservative sleep well at night stock and investors should keep in mind that its current valuation assumes significant future growth and an ability to scale into profitability. It also assumes that it will retain a strong technological moat which will enable it to increase gross margins over time.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，PLUG 也远非保守的夜间睡个好觉股票，投资者应该记住，其目前的估值假设未来显着增长并有能力扩大盈利能力。它还假设它将保留强大的技术护城河，这将使其能够随着时间的推移提高毛利率。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, we rate PLUG a speculative buy at this point.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我们目前将 PLUG 评级为投机性买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Plug Power Could Generate 7x Returns Over The Next Decade<blockquote>普拉格能源如何在未来十年内产生 7 倍的回报</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Plug Power Could Generate 7x Returns Over The Next Decade<blockquote>普拉格能源如何在未来十年内产生 7 倍的回报</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 23:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>PLUG is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European markets.</li> <li>The company boasts advanced technology and strong growth momentum.</li> <li>We outline the company's path to growing from a $15 billion market cap to a $100 billion market cap over the next decade.</li> <li>That said, PLUG still faces significant risks to its thesis that investors should keep in mind.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06bea0bef6d6ac8eab14c3fceb2cccae\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>JONGHO SHIN/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PLUG是北美和欧洲市场领先的氢燃料电池交钥匙供应商。</li><li>公司技术先进，增长势头强劲。</li><li>我们概述了该公司在未来十年从 150 亿美元市值增长到 1000 亿美元市值的路径。</li><li>尽管如此，PLUG 的论点仍然面临重大风险，投资者应该牢记这一点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JONGHO SHIN/iStock via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power (PLUG) is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European markets. The company boasts advanced technology and strong growth momentum which should propel it to significant appreciation over the long term. In this article we outline the company's path to growing from a $15 billion market cap to a $100 billion market cap (nearly 7x returns) over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源（PLUG）是北美和欧洲市场领先的氢燃料电池交钥匙供应商。该公司拥有先进的技术和强劲的增长势头，这应该会推动其长期大幅升值。在本文中，我们概述了该公司在未来十年从 150 亿美元市值增长到 1000 亿美元市值（近 7 倍回报）的路径。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. Addressable Market Potential</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.可寻址的市场潜力</b></blockquote></p><p> With the massive tailwinds for green energy and ESG investing at the moment, the hydrogen fuel cell market is likely to enjoy strong growth momentum for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>随着目前绿色能源和ESG投资的巨大推动，氢燃料电池市场可能会在未来许多年内享有强劲的增长势头。</blockquote></p><p> First and foremost, the Biden administration has executed an aggressive about-face from the previous administration in its disposition towards clean energy and fossil fuels. Between executive orders and rejoining the Paris Climate Accords, the U.S. Government is increasingly incentivizing green energy investment and consumption. The European Union and China are also increasingly headed in this direction.</p><p><blockquote>首先也是最重要的是，拜登政府在对清洁能源和化石燃料的态度上与前任政府相比发生了激进的大转变。在行政命令和重新加入巴黎气候协议之间，美国政府越来越多地鼓励绿色能源投资和消费。欧盟和中国也越来越多地朝着这个方向前进。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the ESG investing movement has taken off to where it now accounts for an astonishing one-third of total assets under management in the United States. Given that so much capital is attracted to environmentally friendly investments, companies across the board - including in the hydrocarbon sector - are increasingly adopting policies that appeal to the environmentally-conscious investor.</p><p><blockquote>其次，ESG投资运动已经起飞，目前占美国管理总资产的三分之一，惊人。鉴于如此多的资本被环保投资所吸引，包括碳氢化合物行业在内的各类公司都越来越多地采取吸引具有环保意识的投资者的政策。</blockquote></p><p> Third, the disruption and transformation of the automotive industry to reduce emissions is driving strong demand for new fuel technologies.</p><p><blockquote>第三，汽车行业为减少排放而进行的颠覆和转型正在推动对新燃料技术的强劲需求。</blockquote></p><p> Finally - largely due to the heavy investment and market demand - green technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells are seeing costs decline dramatically, making them increasingly competitive on the marketplace.</p><p><blockquote>最后，主要由于大量投资和市场需求，氢燃料电池等绿色技术的成本正在大幅下降，使其在市场上的竞争力越来越强。</blockquote></p><p> All of this should lead to continued strong growth in the sector. In fact, U.S. Hydrogen demand is expected to be 17 million metric tons per year by 2030 and 63 million metric tons by 2050, which is pretty substantial growth from the 10 million metric tons consumed in the U.S. last year. Globally, the hydrogen generation industry is expected to reach $201 billion by 2025 and should continue to grow rapidly in the decades to follow similar to how it is expected to grow in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都将导致该行业持续强劲增长。事实上，到 2030 年，美国氢气需求预计将达到每年 1700 万公吨，到 2050 年将达到 6300 万公吨，比去年美国消耗的 1000 万公吨大幅增长。在全球范围内，氢能发电行业预计到 2025 年将达到 2010 亿美元，并将在未来几十年内继续快速增长，类似于美国的预期增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0541b1fd23777a900f3e1a1102206d7b\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>#2. Market Share Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2.市场份额驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> We believe that PLUG has a strong chance at capturing a sizable portion of this massive addressable market for the following reasons.</p><p><blockquote>我们相信，出于以下原因，PLUG 很有可能占领这个庞大的潜在市场的很大一部分。</blockquote></p><p> First and foremost, it has advanced technology and early mover advantages in the space. It owns numerous hydrogen energy systems including proton exchange membrane fuel cells, hybrid batteries, hydrogen storage, hydrogen dispensing, and fuel processing. Its flagship product is the electric vehicle focused GenDrive system that is complemented by their GenFuel and GenCare systems.</p><p><blockquote>首先也是最重要的是，它在该领域拥有先进的技术和先发优势。它拥有众多氢能系统，包括质子交换膜燃料电池、混合电池、储氢、加氢和燃料加工。其旗舰产品是专注于电动汽车的GenDrive系统，并辅以GenFuel和GenCare系统。</blockquote></p><p> Second of all, it has a foothold in both North America and Europe which means that it has significantly more growth potential than if it was solely focused on a single continent. In fact, North America and Europe are likely to be the leaders in Hydrogen adaptation for the foreseeable future, so PLUG is well-positioned to capture a significant portion of the global market share.</p><p><blockquote>其次，它在北美和欧洲都有立足点，这意味着它比只专注于一个大陆具有更大的增长潜力。事实上，在可预见的未来，北美和欧洲可能会成为氢适应的领导者，因此 PLUG 处于有利地位，可以占据很大一部分全球市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Third, PLUG has strong growth momentum right now and is winning business from some of the biggest companies in the world, including Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), and General Motors (GM) either currently using their products or expected to become customers in the near future. As a result, we expect the 76% year-over-year revenue growth in its most recent quarterly report (128% year-over-year growth in their fuel cell systems and related infrastructure segment) to be sustainable for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>第三，PLUG 目前拥有强劲的增长势头，并正在赢得世界上一些最大公司的业务，包括亚马逊 (AMZN)、沃尔玛 (WMT)、家得宝 (HD) 和通用汽车 (GM)，这些公司目前正在使用他们的产品或预计在不久的将来成为客户。因此，我们预计其最新季度报告中 76% 的收入同比增长（燃料电池系统和相关基础设施部门同比增长 128%）在可预见的未来将是可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> In fact,analysts expect revenue to grow by 57% in 2022, which should push the company to EBITDA profitability.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，分析师预计 2022 年收入将增长 57%，这将推动该公司实现 EBITDA 盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3. Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3.估值</b></blockquote></p><p> While PLUG certainly operates in a hot industry and has numerous drivers that should enable it to capture significant market share, the company is also not cheap as it is currently running a loss.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 PLUG 确实在一个热门行业运营，并且拥有众多驱动因素，使其能够占据大量市场份额，但该公司也不便宜，因为它目前正在亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the other hand, its EV/revenue figure is not outlandish given their growth runway as PLUG currently trades at 29.8x expected 2021 sales and 21x expected 2022 sales.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，考虑到其增长跑道，其电动汽车/收入数据并不奇怪，因为 PLUG 目前的交易价格是 2021 年销量预期的 29.8 倍，2022 年销量预期的 21 倍。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, with a product gross margin of 38% that expanded by a whopping 600 basis points in PLUG's most recent earnings release, its profitability potential is significant. Overall, PLUG's gross margin is expected to be a fairly weak 9.71% in 2021, but is expected to nearly double in 2022 to 18.93%. This is also a massive increase from 2017 when the gross margin was a mere 1.2%. The EBITDA margin is also expected to be a somewhat respectable 10.7% in 2022 as well.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，PLUG 最近发布的财报显示，产品毛利率为 38%，扩大了 600 个基点，其盈利潜力巨大。总体而言，PLUG 的毛利率预计在 2021 年将相当疲软，为 9.71%，但预计在 2022 年将几乎翻一番，达到 18.93%。这也比 2017 年毛利率仅为 1.2% 时大幅增长。预计 2022 年 EBITDA 利润率也将达到 10.7%，相当可观。</blockquote></p><p> If PLUG can continue to leverage its strong technology and massive expected economies of scale in the coming years, we think it is reasonable for it to push gross margins to 30% and net margins to 20% by 2032. Meanwhile, if it can capture even just 3% of global hydrogen market share by 2032 and the global market reaches roughly $390 billion by then (it is expected to exceed $200 billion by 2025 and will likely be growing by around 10% per year at least for the foreseeable future), PLUG should be generating $11.7 billion in revenues by 2032. That would assume a 31.9% revenue CAGR between 2022 and 2032, which we also believe is quite reasonable given its aforementioned growth momentum and competitive strengths.</p><p><blockquote>如果 PLUG 能够在未来几年继续利用其强大的技术和巨大的预期规模经济，我们认为到 2032 年将毛利率提高到 30%，净利润率提高到 20% 是合理的。与此同时，如果到 2032 年它能够占据全球氢市场份额的 3%，并且届时全球市场规模达到约 3900 亿美元（预计到 2025 年将超过 2000 亿美元，并且可能每年增长约 10%至少在可预见的未来），到 2032 年，PLUG 的收入将达到 117 亿美元。假设 2022 年至 2032 年间的收入复合年增长率为 31.9%，考虑到其上述增长势头和竞争优势，我们也认为这是相当合理的。</blockquote></p><p> At a 20% net margin, that would put its net earnings at over $2.3 billion in 2032, which would require a 42.7x price to earnings multiple to warrant a $100 billion market cap. Is this a reasonable multiple? It depends a lot on interest rates, but, given that the current S&P 500 (SPY) multiple is ~31x and PLUG's growth rate and growth runway will likely still be vastly superior to where the S&P 500's is today, it certainly does not seem too far-fetched to us.</p><p><blockquote>按照 20% 的净利润率计算，到 2032 年，其净利润将超过 23 亿美元，这需要 42.7 倍的市盈率才能保证 1000 亿美元的市值。这是一个合理的倍数吗？这在很大程度上取决于利率，但是，鉴于目前标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）市盈率约为 31 倍，并且 PLUG 的增长率和增长跑道可能仍然远远优于标准普尔 500 指数目前的水平，这当然不会显得太牵强对我们来说。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02cad870534d53e0544cd0389c837b1d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#4. Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#4.风险</b></blockquote></p><p> If this model pans out how we think it could, PLUG is a very attractive buy on the latest pullback.</p><p><blockquote>如果这种模式如我们想象的那样发展，那么在最近的回调中，PLUG 是一个非常有吸引力的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e86493a3f4fcb61e8bec0de36f0f9b7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of course, it assumes that PLUG will be able to overcome several risks, so investors should keep in mind that it remains a very speculative investment at this point.</p><p><blockquote>当然，它假设PLUG将能够克服一些风险，因此投资者应该记住，目前它仍然是一项非常投机性的投资。</blockquote></p><p> First and foremost, it will demand that PLUG can maintain highly competitive technology in a space that is almost certain to grow increasingly competitive in the years to come.</p><p><blockquote>首先也是最重要的是，它将要求 PLUG 能够在一个几乎肯定会在未来几年变得越来越竞争的领域保持高度竞争力的技术。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, PLUG will need to balance investing in recruiting the best talent in the industry to sustain and increase its technological edge with investing in effective marketing while also avoiding diluting shareholders or running up a big debt burden. Given that it is not yet free cash flow positive, this could prove challenging in the short term. That said, their nearly $4.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents on hand should enable it to reach free cash flow positivity without stressing its balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>此外，PLUG 需要在招聘业内最优秀人才以维持和增加其技术优势的投资与投资有效营销之间取得平衡，同时避免稀释股东或背负沉重的债务负担。鉴于自由现金流尚未为正，这在短期内可能具有挑战性。也就是说，他们手头近 48 亿美元的现金和现金等价物应该能够使其实现自由现金流正值，而不会给其资产负债表带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> Third, hydrogen power has not been without its critics over the years, most notably Tesla's (TSLA) founder and CEO Elon Musk. The wildly popular and visionary entrepreneur argued that using hydrogen to store energy can never be as efficient as storing electricity in a battery. In fact, he has gone so far as to say that using hydrogen fuel cells (which he calls \"fool cells\") to power vehicles is \"mind-bogglingly stupid.\" Obviously many individuals and corporations disagree with Musk's assessment and he has a clear incentive to try to discredit the technology, but this should still be viewed as a significant risk to keep an eye on. If hydrogen were to fall out of favor, it would significantly reduce the upside for PLUG and could even lead to permanent impairments from current levels if severe enough.</p><p><blockquote>第三，多年来，氢能并非没有批评者，其中最著名的是特斯拉 (TSLA) 创始人兼首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk)。这位广受欢迎且富有远见的企业家认为，使用氢来储存能量永远不会像在电池中储存电力那样高效。事实上，他甚至表示使用氢燃料电池（他称之为“傻瓜电池”）为车辆提供动力是“令人难以置信的愚蠢”。显然，许多个人和公司不同意马斯克的评估，他有明显的动机试图诋毁这项技术，但这仍应被视为一个需要密切关注的重大风险。如果氢失去青睐，它将显着降低 PLUG 的上涨空间，如果足够严重，甚至可能导致当前水平的永久性损害。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> PLUG is a competitively positioned company in a rapidly-growing industry. Not only that, but the industry's growth runway looks promising for many decades to come. With advanced technology, early mover advantages, and a foothold on the two most fertile continents for Hydrogen technology, PLUG should be able to generate strong revenue growth for a long time to come.</p><p><blockquote>PLUG是一家在快速增长的行业中具有竞争力的公司。不仅如此，该行业的增长跑道在未来几十年看起来很有希望。凭借先进的技术、先发优势以及氢技术最肥沃的两个大陆的立足点，PLUG 应该能够在未来很长一段时间内实现强劲的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Given our assumptions outlined in this article, we think that PLUG could very possibly achieve a $100 billion market cap in about a decade. This would represent a 667% total return (20.9% CAGR) over that span assuming no further share dilution.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于我们在本文中概述的假设，我们认为 PLUG 很有可能在大约十年内达到 1000 亿美元的市值。假设没有进一步稀释股票，这意味着在此期间的总回报率为 667%（复合年增长率为 20.9%）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That said, PLUG is also far from a conservative sleep well at night stock and investors should keep in mind that its current valuation assumes significant future growth and an ability to scale into profitability. It also assumes that it will retain a strong technological moat which will enable it to increase gross margins over time.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，PLUG 也远非保守的夜间睡个好觉股票，投资者应该记住，其目前的估值假设未来显着增长并有能力扩大盈利能力。它还假设它将保留强大的技术护城河，这将使其能够随着时间的推移提高毛利率。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, we rate PLUG a speculative buy at this point.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我们目前将 PLUG 评级为投机性买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441600-plug-power-could-generate-7x-returns-over-the-next-decade\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441600-plug-power-could-generate-7x-returns-over-the-next-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165178450","content_text":"Summary\n\nPLUG is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European markets.\nThe company boasts advanced technology and strong growth momentum.\nWe outline the company's path to growing from a $15 billion market cap to a $100 billion market cap over the next decade.\nThat said, PLUG still faces significant risks to its thesis that investors should keep in mind.\n\nJONGHO SHIN/iStock via Getty Images\nPlug Power (PLUG) is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European markets. The company boasts advanced technology and strong growth momentum which should propel it to significant appreciation over the long term. In this article we outline the company's path to growing from a $15 billion market cap to a $100 billion market cap (nearly 7x returns) over the next decade.\n#1. Addressable Market Potential\nWith the massive tailwinds for green energy and ESG investing at the moment, the hydrogen fuel cell market is likely to enjoy strong growth momentum for many years to come.\nFirst and foremost, the Biden administration has executed an aggressive about-face from the previous administration in its disposition towards clean energy and fossil fuels. Between executive orders and rejoining the Paris Climate Accords, the U.S. Government is increasingly incentivizing green energy investment and consumption. The European Union and China are also increasingly headed in this direction.\nSecond, the ESG investing movement has taken off to where it now accounts for an astonishing one-third of total assets under management in the United States. Given that so much capital is attracted to environmentally friendly investments, companies across the board - including in the hydrocarbon sector - are increasingly adopting policies that appeal to the environmentally-conscious investor.\nThird, the disruption and transformation of the automotive industry to reduce emissions is driving strong demand for new fuel technologies.\nFinally - largely due to the heavy investment and market demand - green technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells are seeing costs decline dramatically, making them increasingly competitive on the marketplace.\nAll of this should lead to continued strong growth in the sector. In fact, U.S. Hydrogen demand is expected to be 17 million metric tons per year by 2030 and 63 million metric tons by 2050, which is pretty substantial growth from the 10 million metric tons consumed in the U.S. last year. Globally, the hydrogen generation industry is expected to reach $201 billion by 2025 and should continue to grow rapidly in the decades to follow similar to how it is expected to grow in the U.S.\n\n#2. Market Share Drivers\nWe believe that PLUG has a strong chance at capturing a sizable portion of this massive addressable market for the following reasons.\nFirst and foremost, it has advanced technology and early mover advantages in the space. It owns numerous hydrogen energy systems including proton exchange membrane fuel cells, hybrid batteries, hydrogen storage, hydrogen dispensing, and fuel processing. Its flagship product is the electric vehicle focused GenDrive system that is complemented by their GenFuel and GenCare systems.\nSecond of all, it has a foothold in both North America and Europe which means that it has significantly more growth potential than if it was solely focused on a single continent. In fact, North America and Europe are likely to be the leaders in Hydrogen adaptation for the foreseeable future, so PLUG is well-positioned to capture a significant portion of the global market share.\nThird, PLUG has strong growth momentum right now and is winning business from some of the biggest companies in the world, including Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), and General Motors (GM) either currently using their products or expected to become customers in the near future. As a result, we expect the 76% year-over-year revenue growth in its most recent quarterly report (128% year-over-year growth in their fuel cell systems and related infrastructure segment) to be sustainable for the foreseeable future.\nIn fact,analysts expect revenue to grow by 57% in 2022, which should push the company to EBITDA profitability.\n#3. Valuation\nWhile PLUG certainly operates in a hot industry and has numerous drivers that should enable it to capture significant market share, the company is also not cheap as it is currently running a loss.\nOn the other hand, its EV/revenue figure is not outlandish given their growth runway as PLUG currently trades at 29.8x expected 2021 sales and 21x expected 2022 sales.\nIn fact, with a product gross margin of 38% that expanded by a whopping 600 basis points in PLUG's most recent earnings release, its profitability potential is significant. Overall, PLUG's gross margin is expected to be a fairly weak 9.71% in 2021, but is expected to nearly double in 2022 to 18.93%. This is also a massive increase from 2017 when the gross margin was a mere 1.2%. The EBITDA margin is also expected to be a somewhat respectable 10.7% in 2022 as well.\nIf PLUG can continue to leverage its strong technology and massive expected economies of scale in the coming years, we think it is reasonable for it to push gross margins to 30% and net margins to 20% by 2032. Meanwhile, if it can capture even just 3% of global hydrogen market share by 2032 and the global market reaches roughly $390 billion by then (it is expected to exceed $200 billion by 2025 and will likely be growing by around 10% per year at least for the foreseeable future), PLUG should be generating $11.7 billion in revenues by 2032. That would assume a 31.9% revenue CAGR between 2022 and 2032, which we also believe is quite reasonable given its aforementioned growth momentum and competitive strengths.\nAt a 20% net margin, that would put its net earnings at over $2.3 billion in 2032, which would require a 42.7x price to earnings multiple to warrant a $100 billion market cap. Is this a reasonable multiple? It depends a lot on interest rates, but, given that the current S&P 500 (SPY) multiple is ~31x and PLUG's growth rate and growth runway will likely still be vastly superior to where the S&P 500's is today, it certainly does not seem too far-fetched to us.\nData by YCharts\n#4. Risks\nIf this model pans out how we think it could, PLUG is a very attractive buy on the latest pullback.\nData by YCharts\nOf course, it assumes that PLUG will be able to overcome several risks, so investors should keep in mind that it remains a very speculative investment at this point.\nFirst and foremost, it will demand that PLUG can maintain highly competitive technology in a space that is almost certain to grow increasingly competitive in the years to come.\nAdditionally, PLUG will need to balance investing in recruiting the best talent in the industry to sustain and increase its technological edge with investing in effective marketing while also avoiding diluting shareholders or running up a big debt burden. Given that it is not yet free cash flow positive, this could prove challenging in the short term. That said, their nearly $4.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents on hand should enable it to reach free cash flow positivity without stressing its balance sheet.\nThird, hydrogen power has not been without its critics over the years, most notably Tesla's (TSLA) founder and CEO Elon Musk. The wildly popular and visionary entrepreneur argued that using hydrogen to store energy can never be as efficient as storing electricity in a battery. In fact, he has gone so far as to say that using hydrogen fuel cells (which he calls \"fool cells\") to power vehicles is \"mind-bogglingly stupid.\" Obviously many individuals and corporations disagree with Musk's assessment and he has a clear incentive to try to discredit the technology, but this should still be viewed as a significant risk to keep an eye on. If hydrogen were to fall out of favor, it would significantly reduce the upside for PLUG and could even lead to permanent impairments from current levels if severe enough.\nInvestor Takeaway\nPLUG is a competitively positioned company in a rapidly-growing industry. Not only that, but the industry's growth runway looks promising for many decades to come. With advanced technology, early mover advantages, and a foothold on the two most fertile continents for Hydrogen technology, PLUG should be able to generate strong revenue growth for a long time to come.\nGiven our assumptions outlined in this article, we think that PLUG could very possibly achieve a $100 billion market cap in about a decade. This would represent a 667% total return (20.9% CAGR) over that span assuming no further share dilution.\nThat said, PLUG is also far from a conservative sleep well at night stock and investors should keep in mind that its current valuation assumes significant future growth and an ability to scale into profitability. It also assumes that it will retain a strong technological moat which will enable it to increase gross margins over time.\nOverall, we rate PLUG a speculative buy at this point.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800856070,"gmtCreate":1627292827890,"gmtModify":1631890760664,"author":{"id":"3577542115836824","authorId":"3577542115836824","name":"CHUNGWAIQIAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a31f56452fb34c4653d7867c48355ad8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577542115836824","authorIdStr":"3577542115836824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800856070","repostId":"1151724613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151724613","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627292512,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151724613?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 17:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.<blockquote>特斯拉今天公布收益。这是最重要的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151724613","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.\nThe ","content":"<p>Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉将于周一公布第二季度收益。准备好一份非常复杂的报告。</blockquote></p><p> The EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday, July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车先驱将于 7 月 26 日星期一收盘后发布报告。据 FactSet 称，华尔街希望特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在 115 亿美元的销售额中报告每股收益约 94 美分。超出分析师预期对于任何股票在财报后交易中保持稳定来说都很重要，几乎是必需的。特斯拉也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> There will be a lot of moving parts, however, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk.</p><p><blockquote>不过，对于世界上最有价值的汽车公司及其打破常规的首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）来说，将会有很多移动部件，甚至比平时还要多。</blockquote></p><p> Factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings include the global semiconductor shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.</p><p><blockquote>影响利润的因素包括全球半导体短缺、汽车定价、汽车毛利率以及特斯拉电池存储业务的盈利水平。然而，最终，投资者会希望看到营业利润创纪录——无论如何发生。这可能会打破股价近期的区间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d908f359ce3333ed256684e007ff74d0\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"580\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公布 2020 年第三季度营业利润超过 8 亿美元，在接下来的三个月内，该股股价翻了一番多，达到 860 美元左右。但由于营业利润增长在随后几个季度基本暂停，股价已从约 860 美元跌至最近的 640 美元左右。利润停滞也意味着库存停滞。</blockquote></p><p> The good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered more than 200,000 vehicles in a single quarter.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉多头来说，好消息是华尔街预计将创下新纪录：在强劲交付的推动下，第二季度营业利润预计将达到 8.35 亿美元。2021年第二季度标志着特斯拉首次在单季度交付超过20万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> After earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla beat earnings estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>财报消化完毕后，多头和空头之间关于财报质量的争论应该会层出不穷。例如，特斯拉创造销售额的一种方式是出售监管积分——它通过生产超过其公平份额的电动汽车来获得这些积分。该公司第一季度信贷销售额为 5.18 亿美元，帮助特斯拉超出盈利预期。关于信用销售额的 “正常 ”数量以及这些销售额何时会枯竭，一直存在争议。最终，多头和空头都预计其他汽车制造商将出售自己的电动汽车，从而切断特斯拉的收入来源。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the issue of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.</p><p><blockquote>还有比特币的问题。特斯拉承认其持有的比特币在第一季度略有增加，但这种加密货币的价格自 4 月份的峰值以来已经下跌了大约一半。这意味着有可能出现小幅亏损。投资者的反应谁也说不准，但不要指望特斯拉会抛售其比特币头寸。马斯克继续表示，当比特币矿业使用更可持续的电力时，他的公司将以加密货币进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its charging network to other EVs down the road.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还想知道特斯拉在德国的新工厂和德克萨斯州奥斯汀的工厂何时开始交付汽车。奥斯汀工厂将生产特斯拉的 Cybertruck。特斯拉驾驶辅助功能的进步--该公司最近开始以订阅的形式销售其驾驶辅助软件--以及该公司能从其充电网络中赚多少钱，也可能会有人质疑。马斯克本周在推特上表示，特斯拉将向未来的其他电动汽车开放其充电网络。</blockquote></p><p> Those topics and more should be discussed on the earnings conference call scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>这些话题以及更多话题应该在定于下午 5:30 举行的财报电话会议上讨论。美国东部时间周一。今年迄今为止，特斯拉股价已下跌约 9%，落后于标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别 17% 和 15% 的可比涨幅。尽管如此，特斯拉股价仍表现强劲，过去 12 个月上涨了约 112%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.<blockquote>特斯拉今天公布收益。这是最重要的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.<blockquote>特斯拉今天公布收益。这是最重要的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 17:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉将于周一公布第二季度收益。准备好一份非常复杂的报告。</blockquote></p><p> The EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday, July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车先驱将于 7 月 26 日星期一收盘后发布报告。据 FactSet 称，华尔街希望特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在 115 亿美元的销售额中报告每股收益约 94 美分。超出分析师预期对于任何股票在财报后交易中保持稳定来说都很重要，几乎是必需的。特斯拉也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> There will be a lot of moving parts, however, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk.</p><p><blockquote>不过，对于世界上最有价值的汽车公司及其打破常规的首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）来说，将会有很多移动部件，甚至比平时还要多。</blockquote></p><p> Factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings include the global semiconductor shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.</p><p><blockquote>影响利润的因素包括全球半导体短缺、汽车定价、汽车毛利率以及特斯拉电池存储业务的盈利水平。然而，最终，投资者会希望看到营业利润创纪录——无论如何发生。这可能会打破股价近期的区间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d908f359ce3333ed256684e007ff74d0\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"580\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公布 2020 年第三季度营业利润超过 8 亿美元，在接下来的三个月内，该股股价翻了一番多，达到 860 美元左右。但由于营业利润增长在随后几个季度基本暂停，股价已从约 860 美元跌至最近的 640 美元左右。利润停滞也意味着库存停滞。</blockquote></p><p> The good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered more than 200,000 vehicles in a single quarter.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉多头来说，好消息是华尔街预计将创下新纪录：在强劲交付的推动下，第二季度营业利润预计将达到 8.35 亿美元。2021年第二季度标志着特斯拉首次在单季度交付超过20万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> After earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla beat earnings estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>财报消化完毕后，多头和空头之间关于财报质量的争论应该会层出不穷。例如，特斯拉创造销售额的一种方式是出售监管积分——它通过生产超过其公平份额的电动汽车来获得这些积分。该公司第一季度信贷销售额为 5.18 亿美元，帮助特斯拉超出盈利预期。关于信用销售额的 “正常 ”数量以及这些销售额何时会枯竭，一直存在争议。最终，多头和空头都预计其他汽车制造商将出售自己的电动汽车，从而切断特斯拉的收入来源。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the issue of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.</p><p><blockquote>还有比特币的问题。特斯拉承认其持有的比特币在第一季度略有增加，但这种加密货币的价格自 4 月份的峰值以来已经下跌了大约一半。这意味着有可能出现小幅亏损。投资者的反应谁也说不准，但不要指望特斯拉会抛售其比特币头寸。马斯克继续表示，当比特币矿业使用更可持续的电力时，他的公司将以加密货币进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its charging network to other EVs down the road.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还想知道特斯拉在德国的新工厂和德克萨斯州奥斯汀的工厂何时开始交付汽车。奥斯汀工厂将生产特斯拉的 Cybertruck。特斯拉驾驶辅助功能的进步--该公司最近开始以订阅的形式销售其驾驶辅助软件--以及该公司能从其充电网络中赚多少钱，也可能会有人质疑。马斯克本周在推特上表示，特斯拉将向未来的其他电动汽车开放其充电网络。</blockquote></p><p> Those topics and more should be discussed on the earnings conference call scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>这些话题以及更多话题应该在定于下午 5:30 举行的财报电话会议上讨论。美国东部时间周一。今年迄今为止，特斯拉股价已下跌约 9%，落后于标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别 17% 和 15% 的可比涨幅。尽管如此，特斯拉股价仍表现强劲，过去 12 个月上涨了约 112%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151724613","content_text":"Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.\nThe EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday, July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.\nThere will be a lot of moving parts, however, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk.\nFactors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings include the global semiconductor shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.\n\nTesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.\nThe good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered more than 200,000 vehicles in a single quarter.\nAfter earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla beat earnings estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.\nThere is also the issue of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.\nInvestors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its charging network to other EVs down the road.\nThose topics and more should be discussed on the earnings conference call scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177858222,"gmtCreate":1627198984166,"gmtModify":1631890760674,"author":{"id":"3577542115836824","authorId":"3577542115836824","name":"CHUNGWAIQIAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a31f56452fb34c4653d7867c48355ad8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577542115836824","authorIdStr":"3577542115836824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177858222","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li> <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li> <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>IBM 第二季度盈利超出分析师预期，云收入和营业利润率均有所提高。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM 连续四个季度收入下降，过去 34 个季度中有 30 个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多的透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊桑·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商用机器公司（IBM）是一家处于转型期的公司。对投资者来说不幸的是，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及传统业务的剥离。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播种的种子是否落在岩石地上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面的业务快速增长，并且在量子计算方面是一个潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前者行业的激烈竞争和后者行业的不确定前景。公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此 IBM 的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM 拥有合理且不断减少的债务负担和强劲的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来解决增长问题，同时剥离托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为 Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及它将承担的当前股息部分尚未披露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司非 GAAP 每股收益为 2.33 美元，超出预期 0.04 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，收入为 187 亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了 7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的 IBM Z 大型机周期，同比下降 13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门占总收入的个位数比例较低，下降了 9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将大部分分拆为 Kyndryl，但增长持平。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极方面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去 12 个月，云总收入为 270 亿美元，增长了 15%，而本季度云收入增长了 13%，达到 70 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去 12 个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到 177 亿美元，调整后自由现金流总计 110 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM的立足点</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM充其量是一家三流IT公司，最坏的情况是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，要准确评估该股，投资者必须了解 IBM 的传统业务有很多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM 是世界上最大的 IT 服务公司，也是大型机的主要供应商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接都由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 的大型机系统处理了全球近 90% 的信用卡交易，全球 97% 的最大银行依赖 IBM 的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而旅游业80%的预订都是通过IBM系统进行的。这导致使用该公司的 IT 服务处理了 40 亿个航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息传输的风险，这是许多人不愿意采取的举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，企业越来越多地采用混合匹配的IT基础架构。反过来，这又侵蚀了 IBM 在客户转换成本方面的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍意识到 IBM 通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。不过，在摩根大通最近举行的投资者大会上，首席财务官吉姆-卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）在接受提问时，就混合云如何推动 IBM 其他一些部门的收入提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p> For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall. Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们每在混合云平台上投入1美元（在业务中），就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，卡瓦诺使用的是 drag 指的是与采用 IBM 混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都能从公司的软件和服务产品中获得 9 到 13 美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>因为混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，所以它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。医疗保健和金融服务领域的客户尤其关注这一点。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最新的研究也属于其他预测的范围，是由魔多情报公司进行的。该公司预测 2021 年至 2026 年的复合年增长率为 18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，该领域的主要运营商是思科 (CSCO)、惠普 (HPE)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、思杰系统 (CTXS) 和 IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云，还有另一个潜在增长来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>请原谅这个双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和 IBM 在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章《IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人》。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦推出，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多名客户。随着600亿美元的服务积压，新实体的预计收入将达到190亿美元。该公司的规模是其最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次拆分将使 IBM 从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务一半以上收入的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占该公司收入的 22%，将占销售额的 40% 以上。值得注意的是，该部门上一季度的收入同比增长了 12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 将保留 Red Hat 及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方最大的客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，仍有待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM已经转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道，该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图记录了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ycharts 数据 / 作者提供的图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与 Kyndryl 分拆相关的 30 亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计 IBM 到 2022 年将产生 120 亿至 130 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层变动，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年中期达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约 180 亿美元。IBM 维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司近期偿还债务的进展情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl 分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票被高估了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 股价交易价格为 141.13 美元。8 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 153.50 美元。自上次收益报告以来，3 位分析师对该股的目标价为 151.33 美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均水平分别为 16.42 倍和 13.25 倍。这两个指标都远低于行业平均水平，行业平均水平都在三十分左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium 提供的 3 至 5 年期 PEG 为 1.16 倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后 IBM 增长的预期。挂钩比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票是一项好的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中拥有根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为公司主要增长途径的云计算也可能导致公司一些传统业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务的快速增长是显而易见的： IBM 现在拥有 3200 多家客户使用公司的混合云平台。这几乎是红帽收购前数字的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。再加上 Kyndryl 发展缓慢的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，我们有理由相信 IBM 将实现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 拥有稳健的资产负债表、强劲的收益率，当使用 PEG 比率作为股票估值的基础时，股票交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我将 IBM 评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期内最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者却获得了相当丰厚的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li> <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li> <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>IBM 第二季度盈利超出分析师预期，云收入和营业利润率均有所提高。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM 连续四个季度收入下降，过去 34 个季度中有 30 个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多的透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊桑·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商用机器公司（IBM）是一家处于转型期的公司。对投资者来说不幸的是，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及传统业务的剥离。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播种的种子是否落在岩石地上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面的业务快速增长，并且在量子计算方面是一个潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前者行业的激烈竞争和后者行业的不确定前景。公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此 IBM 的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM 拥有合理且不断减少的债务负担和强劲的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来解决增长问题，同时剥离托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为 Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及它将承担的当前股息部分尚未披露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司非 GAAP 每股收益为 2.33 美元，超出预期 0.04 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，收入为 187 亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了 7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的 IBM Z 大型机周期，同比下降 13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门占总收入的个位数比例较低，下降了 9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将大部分分拆为 Kyndryl，但增长持平。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极方面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去 12 个月，云总收入为 270 亿美元，增长了 15%，而本季度云收入增长了 13%，达到 70 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去 12 个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到 177 亿美元，调整后自由现金流总计 110 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM的立足点</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM充其量是一家三流IT公司，最坏的情况是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，要准确评估该股，投资者必须了解 IBM 的传统业务有很多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM 是世界上最大的 IT 服务公司，也是大型机的主要供应商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接都由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 的大型机系统处理了全球近 90% 的信用卡交易，全球 97% 的最大银行依赖 IBM 的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而旅游业80%的预订都是通过IBM系统进行的。这导致使用该公司的 IT 服务处理了 40 亿个航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息传输的风险，这是许多人不愿意采取的举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，企业越来越多地采用混合匹配的IT基础架构。反过来，这又侵蚀了 IBM 在客户转换成本方面的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍意识到 IBM 通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。不过，在摩根大通最近举行的投资者大会上，首席财务官吉姆-卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）在接受提问时，就混合云如何推动 IBM 其他一些部门的收入提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p> For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall. Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们每在混合云平台上投入1美元（在业务中），就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，卡瓦诺使用的是 drag 指的是与采用 IBM 混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都能从公司的软件和服务产品中获得 9 到 13 美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>因为混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，所以它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。医疗保健和金融服务领域的客户尤其关注这一点。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最新的研究也属于其他预测的范围，是由魔多情报公司进行的。该公司预测 2021 年至 2026 年的复合年增长率为 18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，该领域的主要运营商是思科 (CSCO)、惠普 (HPE)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、思杰系统 (CTXS) 和 IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云，还有另一个潜在增长来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>请原谅这个双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和 IBM 在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章《IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人》。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦推出，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多名客户。随着600亿美元的服务积压，新实体的预计收入将达到190亿美元。该公司的规模是其最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次拆分将使 IBM 从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务一半以上收入的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占该公司收入的 22%，将占销售额的 40% 以上。值得注意的是，该部门上一季度的收入同比增长了 12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 将保留 Red Hat 及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方最大的客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，仍有待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM已经转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道，该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图记录了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ycharts 数据 / 作者提供的图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与 Kyndryl 分拆相关的 30 亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计 IBM 到 2022 年将产生 120 亿至 130 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层变动，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年中期达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约 180 亿美元。IBM 维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司近期偿还债务的进展情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl 分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票被高估了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 股价交易价格为 141.13 美元。8 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 153.50 美元。自上次收益报告以来，3 位分析师对该股的目标价为 151.33 美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均水平分别为 16.42 倍和 13.25 倍。这两个指标都远低于行业平均水平，行业平均水平都在三十分左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium 提供的 3 至 5 年期 PEG 为 1.16 倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后 IBM 增长的预期。挂钩比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票是一项好的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中拥有根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为公司主要增长途径的云计算也可能导致公司一些传统业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务的快速增长是显而易见的： IBM 现在拥有 3200 多家客户使用公司的混合云平台。这几乎是红帽收购前数字的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。再加上 Kyndryl 发展缓慢的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，我们有理由相信 IBM 将实现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 拥有稳健的资产负债表、强劲的收益率，当使用 PEG 比率作为股票估值的基础时，股票交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我将 IBM 评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期内最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者却获得了相当丰厚的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174510063,"gmtCreate":1627109751952,"gmtModify":1631890760690,"author":{"id":"3577542115836824","authorId":"3577542115836824","name":"CHUNGWAIQIAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a31f56452fb34c4653d7867c48355ad8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577542115836824","authorIdStr":"3577542115836824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174510063","repostId":"1191636755","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191636755","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627084309,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191636755?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 07:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.<blockquote>特斯拉的收益即将到来。这是一个重要的数字。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191636755","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likel","content":"<p>Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likely very complicated report.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第二季度财报即将发布，投资者应该为一份可能非常复杂的报告做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of moving parts, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk. Figuring out if the stock will go up or down, however, shouldn’t be all that difficult.</p><p><blockquote>对于世界上最有价值的汽车公司及其打破常规的首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）来说，有很多移动部件，甚至比平时还要多。不过，判断股票是上涨还是下跌应该并不难。</blockquote></p><p> The EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday,July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车先锋将于 7 月 26 日星期一收盘后发布报告。据 FactSet 称，华尔街希望特斯拉在 115 亿美元的销售额中报告每股收益约 94 美分。超出分析师预期对于任何股票在财报后交易中保持稳定来说都很重要，几乎是必需的。特斯拉也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> There are plenty of factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings—the global semiconductor shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.</p><p><blockquote>有很多因素会影响底线收益--全球半导体短缺、汽车定价、汽车毛利率以及特斯拉电池存储业务的盈利水平。然而，最终，投资者会希望看到营业利润创纪录——无论如何发生。这可能会打破股价近期的区间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb9cfd5cbe6d36d06167f82af45447d1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"580\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公布 2020 年第三季度营业利润超过 8 亿美元，在接下来的三个月内，该股股价翻了一番多，达到 860 美元左右。但由于营业利润增长在随后几个季度基本暂停，股价已从约 860 美元跌至最近的 640 美元左右。利润停滞也意味着库存停滞。</blockquote></p><p> The good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered more than 200,000 vehicles in a single quarter.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉多头来说，好消息是华尔街预计将创下新纪录：在强劲交付的推动下，第二季度营业利润预计将达到 8.35 亿美元。2021年第二季度是特斯拉首次在单季度交付超过20万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> After earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla beat earnings estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>财报消化完毕后，多头和空头之间关于财报质量的争论应该会层出不穷。例如，特斯拉创造销售额的一种方式是出售监管积分——它通过生产超过其公平份额的电动汽车来获得这些积分。该公司第一季度信贷销售额为 5.18 亿美元，帮助特斯拉超出盈利预期。关于信用销售额的 “正常 ”数量以及这些销售额何时会枯竭，一直存在争议。最终，多头和空头都预计其他汽车制造商将出售自己的电动汽车，从而切断特斯拉的收入来源。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the issue of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.</p><p><blockquote>还有比特币的问题。特斯拉承认其持有的比特币在第一季度略有增加，但这种加密货币的价格自 4 月份的峰值以来已经下跌了大约一半。这意味着有可能出现小幅亏损。投资者的反应谁也说不准，但不要指望特斯拉会抛售其比特币头寸。马斯克继续表示，当比特币矿业使用更可持续的电力时，他的公司将以加密货币进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its charging network to other EVs down the road.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还想知道特斯拉在德国的新工厂和德克萨斯州奥斯汀的工厂何时开始交付汽车。奥斯汀工厂将生产特斯拉的 Cybertruck。特斯拉驾驶辅助功能的进步--该公司最近开始以订阅的形式销售其驾驶辅助软件--以及该公司能从其充电网络中赚多少钱，也可能会有人质疑。马斯克本周在推特上表示，特斯拉将向未来的其他电动汽车开放其充电网络。</blockquote></p><p> All those topics and more should come up on the earningsconference callscheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of theS&P 500andDow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些话题以及更多话题都应该在定于下午 5:30 举行的财报电话会议上提出。美国东部时间周一。今年迄今为止，特斯拉股价已下跌约 9%，落后于标准普尔 500 指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别 17% 和 15% 的可比涨幅。尽管如此，特斯拉股价仍表现强劲，过去 12 个月上涨了约 112%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.<blockquote>特斯拉的收益即将到来。这是一个重要的数字。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.<blockquote>特斯拉的收益即将到来。这是一个重要的数字。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 07:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likely very complicated report.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第二季度财报即将发布，投资者应该为一份可能非常复杂的报告做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of moving parts, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk. Figuring out if the stock will go up or down, however, shouldn’t be all that difficult.</p><p><blockquote>对于世界上最有价值的汽车公司及其打破常规的首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）来说，有很多移动部件，甚至比平时还要多。不过，判断股票是上涨还是下跌应该并不难。</blockquote></p><p> The EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday,July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车先锋将于 7 月 26 日星期一收盘后发布报告。据 FactSet 称，华尔街希望特斯拉在 115 亿美元的销售额中报告每股收益约 94 美分。超出分析师预期对于任何股票在财报后交易中保持稳定来说都很重要，几乎是必需的。特斯拉也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> There are plenty of factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings—the global semiconductor shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.</p><p><blockquote>有很多因素会影响底线收益--全球半导体短缺、汽车定价、汽车毛利率以及特斯拉电池存储业务的盈利水平。然而，最终，投资者会希望看到营业利润创纪录——无论如何发生。这可能会打破股价近期的区间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb9cfd5cbe6d36d06167f82af45447d1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"580\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公布 2020 年第三季度营业利润超过 8 亿美元，在接下来的三个月内，该股股价翻了一番多，达到 860 美元左右。但由于营业利润增长在随后几个季度基本暂停，股价已从约 860 美元跌至最近的 640 美元左右。利润停滞也意味着库存停滞。</blockquote></p><p> The good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered more than 200,000 vehicles in a single quarter.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉多头来说，好消息是华尔街预计将创下新纪录：在强劲交付的推动下，第二季度营业利润预计将达到 8.35 亿美元。2021年第二季度是特斯拉首次在单季度交付超过20万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> After earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla beat earnings estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>财报消化完毕后，多头和空头之间关于财报质量的争论应该会层出不穷。例如，特斯拉创造销售额的一种方式是出售监管积分——它通过生产超过其公平份额的电动汽车来获得这些积分。该公司第一季度信贷销售额为 5.18 亿美元，帮助特斯拉超出盈利预期。关于信用销售额的 “正常 ”数量以及这些销售额何时会枯竭，一直存在争议。最终，多头和空头都预计其他汽车制造商将出售自己的电动汽车，从而切断特斯拉的收入来源。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the issue of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.</p><p><blockquote>还有比特币的问题。特斯拉承认其持有的比特币在第一季度略有增加，但这种加密货币的价格自 4 月份的峰值以来已经下跌了大约一半。这意味着有可能出现小幅亏损。投资者的反应谁也说不准，但不要指望特斯拉会抛售其比特币头寸。马斯克继续表示，当比特币矿业使用更可持续的电力时，他的公司将以加密货币进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its charging network to other EVs down the road.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还想知道特斯拉在德国的新工厂和德克萨斯州奥斯汀的工厂何时开始交付汽车。奥斯汀工厂将生产特斯拉的 Cybertruck。特斯拉驾驶辅助功能的进步--该公司最近开始以订阅的形式销售其驾驶辅助软件--以及该公司能从其充电网络中赚多少钱，也可能会有人质疑。马斯克本周在推特上表示，特斯拉将向未来的其他电动汽车开放其充电网络。</blockquote></p><p> All those topics and more should come up on the earningsconference callscheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of theS&P 500andDow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些话题以及更多话题都应该在定于下午 5:30 举行的财报电话会议上提出。美国东部时间周一。今年迄今为止，特斯拉股价已下跌约 9%，落后于标准普尔 500 指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别 17% 和 15% 的可比涨幅。尽管如此，特斯拉股价仍表现强劲，过去 12 个月上涨了约 112%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191636755","content_text":"Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likely very complicated report.\nThere are a lot of moving parts, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk. Figuring out if the stock will go up or down, however, shouldn’t be all that difficult.\nThe EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday,July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.\nThere are plenty of factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings—the global semiconductor shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.\n\nTesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.\nThe good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered more than 200,000 vehicles in a single quarter.\nAfter earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla beat earnings estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.\nThere is also the issue of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.\nInvestors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its charging network to other EVs down the road.\nAll those topics and more should come up on the earningsconference callscheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of theS&P 500andDow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175890182,"gmtCreate":1627018933546,"gmtModify":1631890760704,"author":{"id":"3577542115836824","authorId":"3577542115836824","name":"CHUNGWAIQIAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a31f56452fb34c4653d7867c48355ad8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577542115836824","authorIdStr":"3577542115836824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175890182","repostId":"2153160453","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175890040,"gmtCreate":1627018918380,"gmtModify":1631890760713,"author":{"id":"3577542115836824","authorId":"3577542115836824","name":"CHUNGWAIQIAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a31f56452fb34c4653d7867c48355ad8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577542115836824","authorIdStr":"3577542115836824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175890040","repostId":"1129188885","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172092803,"gmtCreate":1626919383102,"gmtModify":1631890760732,"author":{"id":"3577542115836824","authorId":"3577542115836824","name":"CHUNGWAIQIAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a31f56452fb34c4653d7867c48355ad8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577542115836824","authorIdStr":"3577542115836824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172092803","repostId":"2153477496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176608797,"gmtCreate":1626878169419,"gmtModify":1631890760737,"author":{"id":"3577542115836824","authorId":"3577542115836824","name":"CHUNGWAIQIAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a31f56452fb34c4653d7867c48355ad8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577542115836824","authorIdStr":"3577542115836824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176608797","repostId":"1107219983","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171611420,"gmtCreate":1626741563960,"gmtModify":1631890760749,"author":{"id":"3577542115836824","authorId":"3577542115836824","name":"CHUNGWAIQIAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a31f56452fb34c4653d7867c48355ad8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577542115836824","authorIdStr":"3577542115836824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":" Pls like","listText":" Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171611420","repostId":"2152652683","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}