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咚咚锵123
咚咚锵123
·
08-24
丧事上的喇叭还吹得这么好听!
阿里配股后股价下跌,野村:稀释不足4%维持买入,债市太贵是选择配股主因
野村表示,市场此前已广泛预期阿里巴巴将需要寻求外部融资,本次融资稀释可控且利空出尽。公司预计AI投资三年回本,云业务利润高增,“平头哥”芯片构筑核心壁垒。在电商稳健现金流护航下,短期震荡后,此次融资或成阿里价值重估新起点。
阿里配股后股价下跌,野村:稀释不足4%维持买入,债市太贵是选择配股主因
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咚咚锵123
咚咚锵123
·
08-10
数据中心是怎么赚钱的?
阿里云计划将全球数据中心产能提升两倍以上
阿里云已将大型AIDC数据中心的交付工期缩短至100天。据了解,在大幅缩短工期的同时,阿里云数据中心整体建设成本反而降低10%以上。今年,阿里云正计划将模块化数据中心的全球产能提升两倍以上。
阿里云计划将全球数据中心产能提升两倍以上
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咚咚锵123
咚咚锵123
·
2025-09-12
搞不懂在说什么
阿里DeepSeek时刻!开源新架构模型:推理快10倍、成本暴降90%
阿里巴巴开源Qwen3-Next-80B-A3B新架构模型,融合门控DeltaNet和门控注意力的混合架构,训练成本较Qwen3-32B暴降90%,推理效率提升10倍,在超长文本32K以上场景表现尤佳。性能上,指令微调版本媲美旗舰Qwen3-235B,思考模型超越谷歌Gemini-2.5-Flash,成为最强低能耗开源模型之一。
阿里DeepSeek时刻!开源新架构模型:推理快10倍、成本暴降90%
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咚咚锵123
咚咚锵123
·
2025-09-03
哪儿有70%?今年最低价格100元左右,现在也不到40%的涨幅
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咚咚锵123
咚咚锵123
·
2025-03-15
星舰是特斯拉的业务么?
马斯克:星舰明年年底前携带Optimus前往火星,人类登陆火星最早可能在2029年开始
3月15日,马斯克表示,星舰将于明年年底前前往火星,届时还将携带特斯拉人形机器人擎天柱(Optimus)。如果携带着擎天柱的星舰在火星上的着陆进展顺利,人类登陆火星最早可能在2029年开始,不过2031年的可能性更大。
马斯克:星舰明年年底前携带Optimus前往火星,人类登陆火星最早可能在2029年开始
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咚咚锵123
咚咚锵123
·
2025-02-28
价格17.5 ?哪儿来的这个价格?
阿里巴巴:于2月26日在纽约证券交易所购回57.46万股股份
格隆汇2月27日|阿里巴巴(BABA.US)公告,公司于2025年2月26日在纽约证券交易所购回57.46万股股份,购回价格为每股17.5美元,最低购回价为每股17.29美元,总金额为999.79万美元。购回股份的授权决议于2024年8月22日获通过,购回股份拟用于注销。此次购回占购回授权通过当日已发行股份的1.46%。 海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP
阿里巴巴:于2月26日在纽约证券交易所购回57.46万股股份
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咚咚锵123
咚咚锵123
·
2025-02-26
这几年分红回购很多的
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咚咚锵123
咚咚锵123
·
2025-02-24
前天还180,今天又200了?这些分析师是不是吸毒了?
承认低估阿里,大摩:AGI目标下,阿里云收入三年将翻倍,估值能给1400亿美元!
大摩预计,阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍,从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下,将阿里目标价上调至200美元,其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量,阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。
承认低估阿里,大摩:AGI目标下,阿里云收入三年将翻倍,估值能给1400亿美元!
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咚咚锵123
咚咚锵123
·
2023-11-22
他是华人么?
非常抱歉,此主贴已删除
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咚咚锵123
咚咚锵123
·
2023-09-11
很突然,有隐情?
非常抱歉,此主贴已删除
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14:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"阿里配股后股价下跌,野村:稀释不足4%维持买入,债市太贵是选择配股主因","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2661538225","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"野村表示,市场此前已广泛预期阿里巴巴将需要寻求外部融资,本次融资稀释可控且利空出尽。公司预计AI投资三年回本,云业务利润高增,“平头哥”芯片构筑核心壁垒。在电商稳健现金流护航下,短期震荡后,此次融资或成阿里价值重估新起点。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>突袭配股引发市场短暂震荡,但野村认为,此次融资对现有股东的实际冲击远小于市场担忧,且有助于消除股价头上长期悬而未决的融资不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月23日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>宣布拟配售约7.1亿股新普通股,募资约800亿港元(约102亿美元),配售价为每股112.70港元,较此前香港收盘价折让8.4%。受配股消息影响,阿里巴巴港股今日承压,跌超8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村分析师Jialong Shi和Rachel Guo测算,本次约7.1亿股新股将导致现有股东股权被摊薄约3.7%,认为该稀释幅度"可控",不改变对公司的正面投资逻辑。值得注意的是,配股完成后,阿里巴巴的总现金及现金等价物将从截至6月季度末的约700亿美元增至约800亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b9f89b485e50b0cc83377a53c073f2f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"604\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">选择配股而非发债:债市成本高企是关键</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村报告指出,<strong>融资方式的选择才是本次交易中令市场意外的核心所在,而非融资行为本身——市场此前已广泛预期阿里巴巴将需要寻求外部融资,尤其是在美国超大规模云计算企业今年密集融资之后。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村分析师坦言,此前预计阿里巴巴会更多倚重债务融资,因为以当前股价估值而言,股权融资的稀释成本看起来更高。然而,报告同时指出,<strong>全球AI资本开支热潮已推动超大规模云企业债券发行量急剧增加,信用利差走阔、新发债券让步幅度扩大、投资者认购倍数下降,债务融资的相对经济吸引力已明显下降。在此背景下,阿里巴巴转而选择股权融资"可以理解"。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前,阿里巴巴美股ADR已在8月21日单日暴跌8.6%,原因正是市场对其潜在融资需求的担忧提前发酵——这一跌幅发生在公司管理层就AI云业务发表乐观展望后仅一天。野村认为,<strong>本次配股公告的落地,反而有助于消除悬在股价上方的这一不确定性,让市场重新聚焦于公司基本面。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">AI投资回报:三年以内回本,云业务利润率持续扩张</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿里巴巴明确表示,此次募集资金将全部投向全栈AI能力,涵盖基础大模型、模型即服务(MaaS)、云基础设施及自研芯片。野村认为,阿里巴巴是中国AI生态中布局最为完整的企业之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI投资回报方面,管理层在最近一个季度的业绩说明会上给出了较为明确的指引:增量AI基础设施投资通常可在三年内回收,AI产品利润率提升、自研平头哥(T-Head)芯片使用比例提高、客户预付款安排以及替代算力方案等,均可进一步改善资本效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">云业务的基本面同样支撑了这一乐观预期。阿里云外部云收入在6月季度同比增长45%,已连续九个季度加速;管理层预计9月季度增速将超过50%,此后还将持续提速。AI云调整后EBITA利润率已从一年前的约7%升至11.6%,管理层预计未来数季度将继续向20%的长期目标迈进。MaaS年度经常性收入(ARR)截至8月已超过160亿元人民币,并有望在本财年末超过300亿元。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">自研芯片平头哥:潜在竞争优势浮现</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村报告特别提示,阿里巴巴自研芯片业务首次提供了更详尽的披露,值得投资者关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>平头哥芯片<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>涵盖GPU、CPU、存储及网络芯片,使阿里巴巴能够在系统层面优化算力、存储和网络,而不必完全依赖第三方硬件。管理层披露,平头哥前代AI芯片累计出货量已超过50万颗,最新一代国产AI芯片已于8月以超节点形式开始在阿里云平台部署,并进入大规模商业化阶段。下一代国产AI芯片预计将于2026年下半年进入流片阶段,目标同时支持大规模模型训练与推理。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村认为,若先进GPU供给持续受限,阿里巴巴的自研芯片能力将成为日益重要的竞争优势。尤其是若平头哥被证明能够在商业规模上支持大参数基础大模型的训练,将有望实质性增强阿里云和阿里基础模型业务的市场竞争力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">电商业务:稳定现金流支撑AI投入</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI高投入的同时,阿里巴巴电商业务板块正逐步转向利润稳定与现金生成。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿里巴巴电商集团(AEG)——涵盖中国电商、中国即时零售(QC)及国际电商——6月季度调整后EBITA约为397亿元人民币,基本持平。中国电商客户管理收入(CMR)同比下降7%,但剔除结构性因素后同比增长约1%,大体符合市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">管理层指出,中国电商业务在9月季度迄今有所改善;即时零售业务单位经济效益持续优化,预计全年亏损将同比收窄约50%,并维持FY29财年实现盈利的指引不变。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村认为,阿里巴巴正日益强调成熟电商业务的利润稳定性和现金创造能力,而非以牺牲盈利为代价换取增长,这为集团持续投资AI提供了更稳固的盈利和现金流支撑。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里配股后股价下跌,野村:稀释不足4%维持买入,债市太贵是选择配股主因</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里配股后股价下跌,野村:稀释不足4%维持买入,债市太贵是选择配股主因\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-24 14:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>突袭配股引发市场短暂震荡,但野村认为,此次融资对现有股东的实际冲击远小于市场担忧,且有助于消除股价头上长期悬而未决的融资不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月23日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>宣布拟配售约7.1亿股新普通股,募资约800亿港元(约102亿美元),配售价为每股112.70港元,较此前香港收盘价折让8.4%。受配股消息影响,阿里巴巴港股今日承压,跌超8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村分析师Jialong Shi和Rachel Guo测算,本次约7.1亿股新股将导致现有股东股权被摊薄约3.7%,认为该稀释幅度"可控",不改变对公司的正面投资逻辑。值得注意的是,配股完成后,阿里巴巴的总现金及现金等价物将从截至6月季度末的约700亿美元增至约800亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b9f89b485e50b0cc83377a53c073f2f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"604\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">选择配股而非发债:债市成本高企是关键</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村报告指出,<strong>融资方式的选择才是本次交易中令市场意外的核心所在,而非融资行为本身——市场此前已广泛预期阿里巴巴将需要寻求外部融资,尤其是在美国超大规模云计算企业今年密集融资之后。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村分析师坦言,此前预计阿里巴巴会更多倚重债务融资,因为以当前股价估值而言,股权融资的稀释成本看起来更高。然而,报告同时指出,<strong>全球AI资本开支热潮已推动超大规模云企业债券发行量急剧增加,信用利差走阔、新发债券让步幅度扩大、投资者认购倍数下降,债务融资的相对经济吸引力已明显下降。在此背景下,阿里巴巴转而选择股权融资"可以理解"。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前,阿里巴巴美股ADR已在8月21日单日暴跌8.6%,原因正是市场对其潜在融资需求的担忧提前发酵——这一跌幅发生在公司管理层就AI云业务发表乐观展望后仅一天。野村认为,<strong>本次配股公告的落地,反而有助于消除悬在股价上方的这一不确定性,让市场重新聚焦于公司基本面。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">AI投资回报:三年以内回本,云业务利润率持续扩张</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿里巴巴明确表示,此次募集资金将全部投向全栈AI能力,涵盖基础大模型、模型即服务(MaaS)、云基础设施及自研芯片。野村认为,阿里巴巴是中国AI生态中布局最为完整的企业之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI投资回报方面,管理层在最近一个季度的业绩说明会上给出了较为明确的指引:增量AI基础设施投资通常可在三年内回收,AI产品利润率提升、自研平头哥(T-Head)芯片使用比例提高、客户预付款安排以及替代算力方案等,均可进一步改善资本效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">云业务的基本面同样支撑了这一乐观预期。阿里云外部云收入在6月季度同比增长45%,已连续九个季度加速;管理层预计9月季度增速将超过50%,此后还将持续提速。AI云调整后EBITA利润率已从一年前的约7%升至11.6%,管理层预计未来数季度将继续向20%的长期目标迈进。MaaS年度经常性收入(ARR)截至8月已超过160亿元人民币,并有望在本财年末超过300亿元。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">自研芯片平头哥:潜在竞争优势浮现</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村报告特别提示,阿里巴巴自研芯片业务首次提供了更详尽的披露,值得投资者关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>平头哥芯片<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>涵盖GPU、CPU、存储及网络芯片,使阿里巴巴能够在系统层面优化算力、存储和网络,而不必完全依赖第三方硬件。管理层披露,平头哥前代AI芯片累计出货量已超过50万颗,最新一代国产AI芯片已于8月以超节点形式开始在阿里云平台部署,并进入大规模商业化阶段。下一代国产AI芯片预计将于2026年下半年进入流片阶段,目标同时支持大规模模型训练与推理。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村认为,若先进GPU供给持续受限,阿里巴巴的自研芯片能力将成为日益重要的竞争优势。尤其是若平头哥被证明能够在商业规模上支持大参数基础大模型的训练,将有望实质性增强阿里云和阿里基础模型业务的市场竞争力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">电商业务:稳定现金流支撑AI投入</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI高投入的同时,阿里巴巴电商业务板块正逐步转向利润稳定与现金生成。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿里巴巴电商集团(AEG)——涵盖中国电商、中国即时零售(QC)及国际电商——6月季度调整后EBITA约为397亿元人民币,基本持平。中国电商客户管理收入(CMR)同比下降7%,但剔除结构性因素后同比增长约1%,大体符合市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">管理层指出,中国电商业务在9月季度迄今有所改善;即时零售业务单位经济效益持续优化,预计全年亏损将同比收窄约50%,并维持FY29财年实现盈利的指引不变。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村认为,阿里巴巴正日益强调成熟电商业务的利润稳定性和现金创造能力,而非以牺牲盈利为代价换取增长,这为集团持续投资AI提供了更稳固的盈利和现金流支撑。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00b5e006b00badb0e4baa7ad90ae26d","relate_stocks":{"89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","LU0244354667.USD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" ACC","SG9999002828.SGD":"Eastspring Investments Unit Trusts - Dragon Peacock A SGD","LU2257852520.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Asia Growth A (acc) SGD","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0287142896.SGD":"Fidelity China Focus A-SGD","LU0348783662.USD":"ALLIANZ ORIENTAL INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) INC","LU0821914370.USD":"贝莱德亚洲成长领袖A2","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1044875133.USD":"天利亚洲反向股票 AU Acc","LU1993786604.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV ALL CHINA 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3780140","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2661538225","content_text":"阿里巴巴突袭配股引发市场短暂震荡,但野村认为,此次融资对现有股东的实际冲击远小于市场担忧,且有助于消除股价头上长期悬而未决的融资不确定性。8月23日,阿里巴巴宣布拟配售约7.1亿股新普通股,募资约800亿港元(约102亿美元),配售价为每股112.70港元,较此前香港收盘价折让8.4%。受配股消息影响,阿里巴巴港股今日承压,跌超8%。野村分析师Jialong Shi和Rachel Guo测算,本次约7.1亿股新股将导致现有股东股权被摊薄约3.7%,认为该稀释幅度\"可控\",不改变对公司的正面投资逻辑。值得注意的是,配股完成后,阿里巴巴的总现金及现金等价物将从截至6月季度末的约700亿美元增至约800亿美元。选择配股而非发债:债市成本高企是关键野村报告指出,融资方式的选择才是本次交易中令市场意外的核心所在,而非融资行为本身——市场此前已广泛预期阿里巴巴将需要寻求外部融资,尤其是在美国超大规模云计算企业今年密集融资之后。野村分析师坦言,此前预计阿里巴巴会更多倚重债务融资,因为以当前股价估值而言,股权融资的稀释成本看起来更高。然而,报告同时指出,全球AI资本开支热潮已推动超大规模云企业债券发行量急剧增加,信用利差走阔、新发债券让步幅度扩大、投资者认购倍数下降,债务融资的相对经济吸引力已明显下降。在此背景下,阿里巴巴转而选择股权融资\"可以理解\"。此前,阿里巴巴美股ADR已在8月21日单日暴跌8.6%,原因正是市场对其潜在融资需求的担忧提前发酵——这一跌幅发生在公司管理层就AI云业务发表乐观展望后仅一天。野村认为,本次配股公告的落地,反而有助于消除悬在股价上方的这一不确定性,让市场重新聚焦于公司基本面。AI投资回报:三年以内回本,云业务利润率持续扩张阿里巴巴明确表示,此次募集资金将全部投向全栈AI能力,涵盖基础大模型、模型即服务(MaaS)、云基础设施及自研芯片。野村认为,阿里巴巴是中国AI生态中布局最为完整的企业之一。在AI投资回报方面,管理层在最近一个季度的业绩说明会上给出了较为明确的指引:增量AI基础设施投资通常可在三年内回收,AI产品利润率提升、自研平头哥(T-Head)芯片使用比例提高、客户预付款安排以及替代算力方案等,均可进一步改善资本效率。云业务的基本面同样支撑了这一乐观预期。阿里云外部云收入在6月季度同比增长45%,已连续九个季度加速;管理层预计9月季度增速将超过50%,此后还将持续提速。AI云调整后EBITA利润率已从一年前的约7%升至11.6%,管理层预计未来数季度将继续向20%的长期目标迈进。MaaS年度经常性收入(ARR)截至8月已超过160亿元人民币,并有望在本财年末超过300亿元。自研芯片平头哥:潜在竞争优势浮现野村报告特别提示,阿里巴巴自研芯片业务首次提供了更详尽的披露,值得投资者关注。平头哥芯片矩阵涵盖GPU、CPU、存储及网络芯片,使阿里巴巴能够在系统层面优化算力、存储和网络,而不必完全依赖第三方硬件。管理层披露,平头哥前代AI芯片累计出货量已超过50万颗,最新一代国产AI芯片已于8月以超节点形式开始在阿里云平台部署,并进入大规模商业化阶段。下一代国产AI芯片预计将于2026年下半年进入流片阶段,目标同时支持大规模模型训练与推理。野村认为,若先进GPU供给持续受限,阿里巴巴的自研芯片能力将成为日益重要的竞争优势。尤其是若平头哥被证明能够在商业规模上支持大参数基础大模型的训练,将有望实质性增强阿里云和阿里基础模型业务的市场竞争力。电商业务:稳定现金流支撑AI投入在AI高投入的同时,阿里巴巴电商业务板块正逐步转向利润稳定与现金生成。阿里巴巴电商集团(AEG)——涵盖中国电商、中国即时零售(QC)及国际电商——6月季度调整后EBITA约为397亿元人民币,基本持平。中国电商客户管理收入(CMR)同比下降7%,但剔除结构性因素后同比增长约1%,大体符合市场预期。管理层指出,中国电商业务在9月季度迄今有所改善;即时零售业务单位经济效益持续优化,预计全年亏损将同比收窄约50%,并维持FY29财年实现盈利的指引不变。野村认为,阿里巴巴正日益强调成熟电商业务的利润稳定性和现金创造能力,而非以牺牲盈利为代价换取增长,这为集团持续投资AI提供了更稳固的盈利和现金流支撑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"CXSE":0.6,"BABA":2.1,"HBBD.SI":0.6,"BKF":0.6,"09988":2.1,"LDEM":0.6,"KWEB":0.6,"FDNI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":595307857597192,"gmtCreate":1786357055756,"gmtModify":1786357058088,"author":{"id":"4101710028431850","authorId":"4101710028431850","name":"咚咚锵123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101710028431850","idStr":"4101710028431850"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"数据中心是怎么赚钱的?","listText":"数据中心是怎么赚钱的?","text":"数据中心是怎么赚钱的?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/595307857597192","repostId":"1139457712","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1139457712","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1786350968,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1139457712?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-10 16:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"阿里云计划将全球数据中心产能提升两倍以上","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139457712","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"阿里云已将大型AIDC数据中心的交付工期缩短至100天。据了解,在大幅缩短工期的同时,阿里云数据中心整体建设成本反而降低10%以上。今年,阿里云正计划将模块化数据中心的全球产能提升两倍以上。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿里云已将大型AIDC数据中心的交付工期缩短至100天。据了解,在大幅缩短工期的同时,阿里云数据中心整体建设成本反而降低10%以上。今年,阿里云正计划将模块化数据中心的全球产能提升两倍以上。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里云计划将全球数据中心产能提升两倍以上</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里云计划将全球数据中心产能提升两倍以上\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-10 16:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿里云已将大型AIDC数据中心的交付工期缩短至100天。据了解,在大幅缩短工期的同时,阿里云数据中心整体建设成本反而降低10%以上。今年,阿里云正计划将模块化数据中心的全球产能提升两倍以上。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2e0eb6c0d2386d465d375504e74c84e","relate_stocks":{"BBYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST BABA ETF","BABW":"Roundhill BABA WeeklyPay ETF","BABO":"BABA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","BABX":"2倍做多BABA ETF-GraniteShares","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴","KBAB":"2倍做多BABA ETF-KraneShares","BABU":"Direxion Daily BABA Bull 2X ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139457712","content_text":"阿里云已将大型AIDC数据中心的交付工期缩短至100天。据了解,在大幅缩短工期的同时,阿里云数据中心整体建设成本反而降低10%以上。今年,阿里云正计划将模块化数据中心的全球产能提升两倍以上。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1,"BABX":0.6,"BBYY":0.6,"BABU":0.6,"09988":1,"KBAB":0.6,"BABO":0.6,"BABW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":477709910090632,"gmtCreate":1757638567502,"gmtModify":1757638569184,"author":{"id":"4101710028431850","authorId":"4101710028431850","name":"咚咚锵123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101710028431850","idStr":"4101710028431850"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"搞不懂在说什么","listText":"搞不懂在说什么","text":"搞不懂在说什么","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477709910090632","repostId":"2566948680","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2566948680","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1757637309,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2566948680?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-12 08:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"阿里DeepSeek时刻!开源新架构模型:推理快10倍、成本暴降90%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2566948680","media":"AIGC开放社区","summary":"阿里巴巴开源Qwen3-Next-80B-A3B新架构模型,融合门控DeltaNet和门控注意力的混合架构,训练成本较Qwen3-32B暴降90%,推理效率提升10倍,在超长文本32K以上场景表现尤佳。性能上,指令微调版本媲美旗舰Qwen3-235B,思考模型超越谷歌Gemini-2.5-Flash,成为最强低能耗开源模型之一。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>阿里巴巴开源Qwen3-Next-80B-A3B新架构模型,融合门控DeltaNet和门控注意力的混合架构,训练成本较Qwen3-32B暴降90%,推理效率提升10倍,在超长文本32K以上场景表现尤佳。性能上,指令微调版本媲美旗舰Qwen3-235B,思考模型超越谷歌Gemini-2.5-Flash,成为最强低能耗开源模型之一。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今天凌晨2点,阿里巴巴开源了新架构模型Qwen3-Next-80B-A3B,对混合注意力机制、高稀疏性MoE、训练方法等进行了大幅度创新,迎来了自己的DeepSeek时刻。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Qwen3-Next是一个混合专家模型总参数800亿,仅激活30亿,训练成本较Qwen3-32B暴降90%,推理效率却提升10倍,尤其是在超长文本32K以上的提示场景中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">性能方面,Qwen3-Next的指令微调模型在推理与长上下文任务中,可媲美阿里的旗舰模型Qwen3-235B;思考模型则超过了谷歌最新的Gemini-2.5-Flash思考模型,成为目前最强低能耗开源模型之一。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e1195a7f92abd4c7b2f8aecce07bc5a\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"316\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在线体验:https://chat.qwen.ai/</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">开源地址:https://huggingface.co/collections/Qwen/qwen3-next-68c25fd6838e585db8eeea9d</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">https://modelscope.cn/collections/Qwen3-Next-c314f23bd0264a</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿里API:https://www.alibabacloud.com/help/en/model-studio/models#c5414da58bjgj</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">网友对阿里新模型的架构非常赞赏,表示,半年前我才刚跟联合创始人聊过类似这样的架构!当时好像把它叫做 “动态权重注意力” 之类的,具体名字记不太清了。这设计真的太出色了!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2c0dde2edca64e3ff02338d600871b8\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"252\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">昨天我测试了好几款模型:思维模式下的 ChatGPT-5、Claude-4,还有专家模式下的 Grok-4。刚刚又测了Qwen3 Next。在所有这些模型里,只有你们这款模型第一次尝试就给了我正确答案。真的太出色了!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c463b2636d8b94e644c8dcc5543634\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"230\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">未来以来,这个模型击败了谷歌的Gemini-2.5-Flash。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82eb25aba26a0f3f56c713edaedf46c0\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"206\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在这里看到 DeltaNet的应用,真的有点让人惊喜!我很好奇,如果换成模型架构发现的AlphaGo 时刻这篇论文中提出的模型架构,这款模型的性能会发生怎样的变化?</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8716669e82ece67859edf9e0e0b60168\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"239\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">800 亿参数、超高稀疏性再加上多token预测,这配置太惊艳了!要是你的 GPU 有足够显存,用它跑起来速度绝对飞快。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b48dd54ac6114016d90c344e4463f80\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"176\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">基本上老外对阿里的创新模型非常满意,赞美超多。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/297670e7bad94b6a4eff5411fb13eef2\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"996\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Qwen3-Next架构简单介绍</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿里认为上下文长度扩展与总参数扩展是大模型未来发展的两大核心趋势,为在长上下文和大参数场景下进一步提升训练与推理效率,他们设计了全新的模型架构Qwen3-Next。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相较于Qwen3的MoE结构,Qwen3-Next进行了多项关键改进,包括混合注意力机制、高稀疏性MoE结构、利于训练稳定性的优化手段,以及可实现更快推理的多token预测机制。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在核心特性方面,Qwen3-Next采用门控DeltaNet+门控注意力的混合创新架构。线性注意力虽能打破标准注意力的二次复杂度,更适合长上下文处理,但仅用线性注意力或标准注意力均有局限。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf800847584cbb841385701513546a8\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"669\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">线性注意力速度快但召回能力弱,标准注意力推理时成本高、速度慢。经系统实验验证,门控DeltaNet的上下文学习能力优于滑动窗口注意力、Mamba2等常用方法,将其与标准注意力按3:1比例,75%层用门控DeltaNet,25%层保留标准注意力结合,模型性能持续超越单一架构,实现性能与效率的双重提升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">标准注意力层还进行了多项增强,如采用此前研究中的输出门控机制以减少注意力低秩问题、将每个注意力头的维度从128提升至256、仅对前25%位置维度应用旋转位置编码以改善长序列外推能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">稀疏性设计上,Qwen3-Next采用超高稀疏性MoE结构,800亿总参数在每步推理中仅激活约30亿,占比3.7%。实验表明,在全局负载均衡的前提下,固定激活专家数量并增加专家总参数,能稳步降低训练损失。与Qwen3的MoE相比,Qwen3-Next将总专家数扩展至512个,结合10个路由专家+1个共享专家的设计,在不影响性能的同时最大化资源利用率。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77da51d760e41d13e613c24772e61e65\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"922\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">训练稳定性优化方面,注意力输出门控机制有效解决了注意力Sink、大规模激活等问题,保障模型数值稳定性;针对Qwen3中QK-Norm存在的部分层归一化权重异常增大问题,Qwen3-Next采用零中心RMSNorm,并对归一化权重施加权重衰减以防止无界增长;初始化时对MoE路由器参数进行归一化,确保训练初期每个专家都能被无偏选择,减少随机初始化带来的噪声。这些设计提升了小规模实验的可靠性,保障大规模训练平稳进行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">多token预测机制也是Qwen3-Next的亮点,其原生引入的多token预测(MTP)机制,不仅为投机解码提供高接受率的MTP模块,还能提升模型整体性能,同时针对MTP的多步推理性能进行优化,通过保持训练与推理一致性的多步训练,进一步提高实际场景中投机解码的接受率。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d434a1876d13581c15d4658a7125a82\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"519\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">预训练阶段,Qwen3-Next展现出卓越的效率。其训练数据来自Qwen3的36T token预训练语料中均匀采样的15T token子集,GPU时长不足Qwen3-30-3B的80%,计算成本仅为Qwen3-32B的9.3%,却能实现更优性能。推理速度上,填充阶段4K上下文长度时吞吐量接近Qwen3-32B的7倍,32K以上时超10倍;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">解码阶段4K上下文长度时吞吐量接近Qwen3-32B的4倍,32K以上时仍保持超10倍的速度优势。性能表现上,Qwen3-Next-80B-A3B-Base仅激活Qwen3-32B-Base非嵌入参数的1/10,却在多数基准测试中性能更优,且显著超过Qwen3-30B-A3B。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c247e4f3ea45e8d086a2a4d3ee5e149\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"632\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">后训练阶段的性能同样亮眼。指令模型Qwen3-Next-80B-A3B-Instruct大幅超越Qwen3-30B-A3B-Instruct-2507和Qwen3-32B-Non-thinking,性能接近旗舰模型Qwen3-235B-A22B-Instruct-2507;在RULER基准测试中,该模型在各长度下均优于注意力层更多的Qwen3-30B-A3B-Instruct-2507,且在256K上下文内击败总层数更多的Qwen3-235B-A22B-Instruct-2507,印证了混合架构在长上下文任务中的优势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">推理模型Qwen3-Next-80B-A3B-Thinking性能超过Qwen3-30B-A3B-Thinking-2507、Qwen3-32B-Thinking等更高成本模型,多个基准测试击败Gemini-2.5-Flash-Thinking,关键指标接近Qwen3-235B-A22B-Thinking-2507。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1680749794970","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里DeepSeek时刻!开源新架构模型:推理快10倍、成本暴降90%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里DeepSeek时刻!开源新架构模型:推理快10倍、成本暴降90%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-12 08:35 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/H2-7AsvsO8HAJzPXBw5Qbg><strong>AIGC开放社区</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>阿里巴巴开源Qwen3-Next-80B-A3B新架构模型,融合门控DeltaNet和门控注意力的混合架构,训练成本较Qwen3-32B暴降90%,推理效率提升10倍,在超长文本32K以上场景表现尤佳。性能上,指令微调版本媲美旗舰Qwen3-235B,思考模型超越谷歌Gemini-2.5-Flash,成为最强低能耗开源模型之一。今天凌晨2点,阿里巴巴开源了新架构模型Qwen3-Next-80B-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/H2-7AsvsO8HAJzPXBw5Qbg\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66a54173e70f4b676e346f3e3ec2f8ea","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/H2-7AsvsO8HAJzPXBw5Qbg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2566948680","content_text":"阿里巴巴开源Qwen3-Next-80B-A3B新架构模型,融合门控DeltaNet和门控注意力的混合架构,训练成本较Qwen3-32B暴降90%,推理效率提升10倍,在超长文本32K以上场景表现尤佳。性能上,指令微调版本媲美旗舰Qwen3-235B,思考模型超越谷歌Gemini-2.5-Flash,成为最强低能耗开源模型之一。今天凌晨2点,阿里巴巴开源了新架构模型Qwen3-Next-80B-A3B,对混合注意力机制、高稀疏性MoE、训练方法等进行了大幅度创新,迎来了自己的DeepSeek时刻。Qwen3-Next是一个混合专家模型总参数800亿,仅激活30亿,训练成本较Qwen3-32B暴降90%,推理效率却提升10倍,尤其是在超长文本32K以上的提示场景中。性能方面,Qwen3-Next的指令微调模型在推理与长上下文任务中,可媲美阿里的旗舰模型Qwen3-235B;思考模型则超过了谷歌最新的Gemini-2.5-Flash思考模型,成为目前最强低能耗开源模型之一。在线体验:https://chat.qwen.ai/开源地址:https://huggingface.co/collections/Qwen/qwen3-next-68c25fd6838e585db8eeea9dhttps://modelscope.cn/collections/Qwen3-Next-c314f23bd0264a阿里API:https://www.alibabacloud.com/help/en/model-studio/models#c5414da58bjgj网友对阿里新模型的架构非常赞赏,表示,半年前我才刚跟联合创始人聊过类似这样的架构!当时好像把它叫做 “动态权重注意力” 之类的,具体名字记不太清了。这设计真的太出色了!昨天我测试了好几款模型:思维模式下的 ChatGPT-5、Claude-4,还有专家模式下的 Grok-4。刚刚又测了Qwen3 Next。在所有这些模型里,只有你们这款模型第一次尝试就给了我正确答案。真的太出色了!未来以来,这个模型击败了谷歌的Gemini-2.5-Flash。在这里看到 DeltaNet的应用,真的有点让人惊喜!我很好奇,如果换成模型架构发现的AlphaGo 时刻这篇论文中提出的模型架构,这款模型的性能会发生怎样的变化?800 亿参数、超高稀疏性再加上多token预测,这配置太惊艳了!要是你的 GPU 有足够显存,用它跑起来速度绝对飞快。基本上老外对阿里的创新模型非常满意,赞美超多。Qwen3-Next架构简单介绍阿里认为上下文长度扩展与总参数扩展是大模型未来发展的两大核心趋势,为在长上下文和大参数场景下进一步提升训练与推理效率,他们设计了全新的模型架构Qwen3-Next。相较于Qwen3的MoE结构,Qwen3-Next进行了多项关键改进,包括混合注意力机制、高稀疏性MoE结构、利于训练稳定性的优化手段,以及可实现更快推理的多token预测机制。在核心特性方面,Qwen3-Next采用门控DeltaNet+门控注意力的混合创新架构。线性注意力虽能打破标准注意力的二次复杂度,更适合长上下文处理,但仅用线性注意力或标准注意力均有局限。线性注意力速度快但召回能力弱,标准注意力推理时成本高、速度慢。经系统实验验证,门控DeltaNet的上下文学习能力优于滑动窗口注意力、Mamba2等常用方法,将其与标准注意力按3:1比例,75%层用门控DeltaNet,25%层保留标准注意力结合,模型性能持续超越单一架构,实现性能与效率的双重提升。标准注意力层还进行了多项增强,如采用此前研究中的输出门控机制以减少注意力低秩问题、将每个注意力头的维度从128提升至256、仅对前25%位置维度应用旋转位置编码以改善长序列外推能力。稀疏性设计上,Qwen3-Next采用超高稀疏性MoE结构,800亿总参数在每步推理中仅激活约30亿,占比3.7%。实验表明,在全局负载均衡的前提下,固定激活专家数量并增加专家总参数,能稳步降低训练损失。与Qwen3的MoE相比,Qwen3-Next将总专家数扩展至512个,结合10个路由专家+1个共享专家的设计,在不影响性能的同时最大化资源利用率。训练稳定性优化方面,注意力输出门控机制有效解决了注意力Sink、大规模激活等问题,保障模型数值稳定性;针对Qwen3中QK-Norm存在的部分层归一化权重异常增大问题,Qwen3-Next采用零中心RMSNorm,并对归一化权重施加权重衰减以防止无界增长;初始化时对MoE路由器参数进行归一化,确保训练初期每个专家都能被无偏选择,减少随机初始化带来的噪声。这些设计提升了小规模实验的可靠性,保障大规模训练平稳进行。多token预测机制也是Qwen3-Next的亮点,其原生引入的多token预测(MTP)机制,不仅为投机解码提供高接受率的MTP模块,还能提升模型整体性能,同时针对MTP的多步推理性能进行优化,通过保持训练与推理一致性的多步训练,进一步提高实际场景中投机解码的接受率。预训练阶段,Qwen3-Next展现出卓越的效率。其训练数据来自Qwen3的36T token预训练语料中均匀采样的15T token子集,GPU时长不足Qwen3-30-3B的80%,计算成本仅为Qwen3-32B的9.3%,却能实现更优性能。推理速度上,填充阶段4K上下文长度时吞吐量接近Qwen3-32B的7倍,32K以上时超10倍;解码阶段4K上下文长度时吞吐量接近Qwen3-32B的4倍,32K以上时仍保持超10倍的速度优势。性能表现上,Qwen3-Next-80B-A3B-Base仅激活Qwen3-32B-Base非嵌入参数的1/10,却在多数基准测试中性能更优,且显著超过Qwen3-30B-A3B。后训练阶段的性能同样亮眼。指令模型Qwen3-Next-80B-A3B-Instruct大幅超越Qwen3-30B-A3B-Instruct-2507和Qwen3-32B-Non-thinking,性能接近旗舰模型Qwen3-235B-A22B-Instruct-2507;在RULER基准测试中,该模型在各长度下均优于注意力层更多的Qwen3-30B-A3B-Instruct-2507,且在256K上下文内击败总层数更多的Qwen3-235B-A22B-Instruct-2507,印证了混合架构在长上下文任务中的优势。推理模型Qwen3-Next-80B-A3B-Thinking性能超过Qwen3-30B-A3B-Thinking-2507、Qwen3-32B-Thinking等更高成本模型,多个基准测试击败Gemini-2.5-Flash-Thinking,关键指标接近Qwen3-235B-A22B-Thinking-2507。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":1.1,"BABA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":474427730354232,"gmtCreate":1756850819481,"gmtModify":1756850821467,"author":{"id":"4101710028431850","authorId":"4101710028431850","name":"咚咚锵123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101710028431850","idStr":"4101710028431850"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哪儿有70%?今年最低价格100元左右,现在也不到40%的涨幅","listText":"哪儿有70%?今年最低价格100元左右,现在也不到40%的涨幅","text":"哪儿有70%?今年最低价格100元左右,现在也不到40%的涨幅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/474427730354232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":413656137875984,"gmtCreate":1742019603769,"gmtModify":1742019605783,"author":{"id":"4101710028431850","authorId":"4101710028431850","name":"咚咚锵123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101710028431850","idStr":"4101710028431850"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"星舰是特斯拉的业务么?","listText":"星舰是特斯拉的业务么?","text":"星舰是特斯拉的业务么?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/413656137875984","repostId":"1125787882","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1125787882","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1742016969,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1125787882?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-03-15 13:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克:星舰明年年底前携带Optimus前往火星,人类登陆火星最早可能在2029年开始","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125787882","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月15日,马斯克表示,星舰将于明年年底前前往火星,届时还将携带特斯拉人形机器人擎天柱(Optimus)。如果携带着擎天柱的星舰在火星上的着陆进展顺利,人类登陆火星最早可能在2029年开始,不过2031年的可能性更大。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月15日,马斯克表示,星舰将于明年年底前前往火星,届时还将携带特斯拉人形机器人擎天柱(Optimus)。如果携带着擎天柱的星舰在火星上的着陆进展顺利,人类登陆火星最早可能在2029年开始,不过2031年的可能性更大。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6eaca8670721a7a0613b78876e70ff34\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"721\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克:星舰明年年底前携带Optimus前往火星,人类登陆火星最早可能在2029年开始</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克:星舰明年年底前携带Optimus前往火星,人类登陆火星最早可能在2029年开始\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-03-15 13:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月15日,马斯克表示,星舰将于明年年底前前往火星,届时还将携带特斯拉人形机器人擎天柱(Optimus)。如果携带着擎天柱的星舰在火星上的着陆进展顺利,人类登陆火星最早可能在2029年开始,不过2031年的可能性更大。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6eaca8670721a7a0613b78876e70ff34\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"721\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b098b6fd8448068c49f55fe658ecad1d","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125787882","content_text":"3月15日,马斯克表示,星舰将于明年年底前前往火星,届时还将携带特斯拉人形机器人擎天柱(Optimus)。如果携带着擎天柱的星舰在火星上的着陆进展顺利,人类登陆火星最早可能在2029年开始,不过2031年的可能性更大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":408265422393856,"gmtCreate":1740695852868,"gmtModify":1740695854822,"author":{"id":"4101710028431850","authorId":"4101710028431850","name":"咚咚锵123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101710028431850","idStr":"4101710028431850"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"价格17.5 ?哪儿来的这个价格?","listText":"价格17.5 ?哪儿来的这个价格?","text":"价格17.5 ?哪儿来的这个价格?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/408265422393856","repostId":"2514547872","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2514547872","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1740652620,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2514547872?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-27 18:37","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"阿里巴巴:于2月26日在纽约证券交易所购回57.46万股股份","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2514547872","media":"港股那点事","summary":"格隆汇2月27日|阿里巴巴(BABA.US)公告,公司于2025年2月26日在纽约证券交易所购回57.46万股股份,购回价格为每股17.5美元,最低购回价为每股17.29美元,总金额为999.79万美元。购回股份的授权决议于2024年8月22日获通过,购回股份拟用于注销。此次购回占购回授权通过当日已发行股份的1.46%。 \n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-hidden=\"true\" cms-style=\"font-L\"></font> 格隆汇2月27日|<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>(BABA.US)公告,公司于2025年2月26日在纽约证券交易所购回57.46万股股份,购回价格为每股17.5美元,最低购回价为每股17.29美元,总金额为999.79万美元。购回股份的授权决议于2024年8月22日获通过,购回股份拟用于注销。此次购回占购回授权通过当日已发行股份的1.46%。 </p>\n<div></div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里巴巴:于2月26日在纽约证券交易所购回57.46万股股份</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里巴巴:于2月26日在纽约证券交易所购回57.46万股股份\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-27 18:37 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/bxjj/2025-02-27/doc-inemxrkf6343616.shtml><strong>港股那点事</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>格隆汇2月27日|阿里巴巴(BABA.US)公告,公司于2025年2月26日在纽约证券交易所购回57.46万股股份,购回价格为每股17.5美元,最低购回价为每股17.29美元,总金额为999.79万美元。购回股份的授权决议于2024年8月22日获通过,购回股份拟用于注销。此次购回占购回授权通过当日已发行股份的1.46%。 \n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/bxjj/2025-02-27/doc-inemxrkf6343616.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1008478684.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (HKD) ACC","LU0072913022.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - GREATER CHINA \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0797268264.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1515016050.SGD":"Blackrock Emerging Markets Equity Income A6 SGD-H","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0880133367.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND CHINA OPPORTUNITY USD \"P\" (SGD) ACC","BK4565":"NFT概念","LU1105468828.SGD":"Allianz Total Return Asian Equity AM DIS H2-SGD","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0918141887.USD":"安联亚洲实际收益股票基金","LU0918141705.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 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\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1,"09988":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":407823247172104,"gmtCreate":1740581389400,"gmtModify":1740582496710,"author":{"id":"4101710028431850","authorId":"4101710028431850","name":"咚咚锵123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101710028431850","idStr":"4101710028431850"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这几年分红回购很多的","listText":"这几年分红回购很多的","text":"这几年分红回购很多的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/407823247172104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":407098669793864,"gmtCreate":1740407617205,"gmtModify":1740408028196,"author":{"id":"4101710028431850","authorId":"4101710028431850","name":"咚咚锵123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101710028431850","idStr":"4101710028431850"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"前天还180,今天又200了?这些分析师是不是吸毒了?","listText":"前天还180,今天又200了?这些分析师是不是吸毒了?","text":"前天还180,今天又200了?这些分析师是不是吸毒了?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/407098669793864","repostId":"2513799382","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2513799382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1740385977,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2513799382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-24 16:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"承认低估阿里,大摩:AGI目标下,阿里云收入三年将翻倍,估值能给1400亿美元!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2513799382","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"大摩预计,阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍,从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下,将阿里目标价上调至200美元,其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量,阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>大摩预计,阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍,从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下,将阿里目标价上调至200美元,其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量,阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。</p></blockquote><p>云端起风了,大摩预计阿里股价、估值要起飞?</p><p>23日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>Gary Yu团队发布研报,大幅上调<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>评级至“超配”,目标价从100美元上调至200美元,乐观估值更是达到300美元。</p><p>大摩坦承,此前低估了人工智能驱动的云计算需求激增,以及阿里核心电商业务的韧性。<strong>大摩预测阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍,从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。</strong>阿里云的EBITDA利润率将从2025财年的约20%提高到2028财年的约35%。</p><p>基于对阿里云增长前景的乐观预期,以及对电商业务韧性的重新评估,大摩预计,<strong>在基础情景下,阿里的分拆估值(SOTP)为每股200美元,其中云业务估值为每股60美元(对应5倍EV/销售额),结合阿里已发行股票数量,阿里云市值为1400亿美元。</strong></p><p>值得注意的是,吴泳铭24日宣布,<strong>未来三年,阿里将投入超过3800亿元用于建设云和AI硬件基础设施。</strong>这也创下中国民营企业在云和AI硬件基础设施建设领域有史以来最大规模投资纪录。</p><h2 id=\"id_2212661539\">阿里云:三年收入翻倍,AGI目标引领增长</h2><p>大摩分析师承认此前低估了阿里巴巴,特别是在人工智能驱动的云计算需求激增和核心电商业务韧性方面。</p><p>大摩认为,作为中国最大的超大规模云服务商,阿里巴巴凭借其卓越的技术和备受好评的开源大语言模型(LLM)“通义千问”(Qwen),有望抓住AI云计算的巨大机遇。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a755f5917e6c4a01fc8cc2123374c3a8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"371\"/></p><p>基于以下几点,<strong>大摩预测阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍,从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。</strong></p><blockquote><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>AI需求激增:</strong> DeepSeek模型发布后,阿里云需求显著增长,其中推理需求占增量需求的60-70%。AI相关产品收入已连续六个季度实现三位数增长。</p></li><li><p><strong>激进的资本支出:</strong> 阿里巴巴在最近的2025财年第三季度财报中,承诺将在未来三年加大资本支出,预计将超过过去十年的总和(约3000亿人民币)。</p></li><li><p><strong>竞争格局改善:</strong> 中国云行业竞争激烈,虽盈利能力低于美国,但GPU(而非CPU)基础设施的竞争格局有所改善,供应限制仅限于少数几家超大规模云服务商(阿里巴巴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、字节跳动)。</p></li></ol></blockquote><p>大摩预计,<strong>阿里云的EBITDA利润率将从2025财年的约20%提高到2028财年的约35%。</strong>虽然由于折旧增加,EBITA利润率在2026-2027财年将暂时下降至5-8%,但随着AI相关产品收入规模的扩大,预计将在2028财年恢复至8%,长期来看有望达到15%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62def91765a217db3581175f34900f60\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"364\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3942481293\">估值重估:阿里云价值凸显,电商业务回暖</h2><p>基于对阿里云增长前景的乐观预期,以及对电商业务韧性的重新评估,<strong>大摩基于DCF模型,将目标阿里股价从100美元上调至180美元,</strong>对应2027财年的预期市盈率(P/E)为16.6倍,高于当前2026财年的13.6倍市盈率。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>基础情境下的分拆估值为每股200美元</strong>,其中TTG(阿里核心业务,包括淘天集团、国际电商业务、本地生活服务和菜鸟)估值为每股90美元(对应10倍市盈率),<strong>云业务估值为每股60美元(对应5倍EV/销售额)。</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>在乐观情景下,分拆估值为每股300美元,</strong>其中TTG估值为每股120美元(对应12倍市盈率),<strong>云业务估值为每股100美元(对应7倍EV/销售额)。</strong></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7437fff7a69ecc992cac71930b8e6244\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"671\"/></p></blockquote><p>值得注意的是,在乐观情景下,阿里云的估值(100美元/股)已接近TTG的估值(120美元/股),凸显了其在阿里巴巴整体业务中的重要性。</p><p>大摩同时将中国互联网行业的评级上调至“有吸引力”。报告认为,随着市场关注点转向中国的技术突破,中国互联网公司为AI的推动者和采用者提供了绝佳的投资机会。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde6ce4bde769b70b3c1d0b163a9f238\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"416\"/></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>承认低估阿里,大摩:AGI目标下,阿里云收入三年将翻倍,估值能给1400亿美元!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n承认低估阿里,大摩:AGI目标下,阿里云收入三年将翻倍,估值能给1400亿美元!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-24 16:32 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741708><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>大摩预计,阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍,从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下,将阿里目标价上调至200美元,其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量,阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。云端起风了,大摩预计阿里股价、估值要起飞?23日,摩根士丹利Gary Yu团队发布研报,大幅上调阿里巴巴评级至“超配”,目标价从100美元上调至200美元,乐观估值更是达到...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741708\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506b224c463bd8a5e3d5185361a6fd30","relate_stocks":{"LU0106959298.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - EMERGING MARKETS SUSTAINABLE LEADERS (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A-AZ\" (USD) ACC","LU1046422090.SGD":"Fidelity Pacific A-SGD","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU1152091168.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" INC","LU0708995153.HKD":"TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1807302812.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV ALL 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\"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0865486749.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Income AS SGD-H","BABA":"阿里巴巴","LU1568876251.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AMG\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741708","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2513799382","content_text":"大摩预计,阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍,从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。基本情景下,将阿里目标价上调至200美元,其中云业务估值为每股60美元。结合阿里已发行股票数量,阿里云市值可达1400亿美元。云端起风了,大摩预计阿里股价、估值要起飞?23日,摩根士丹利Gary Yu团队发布研报,大幅上调阿里巴巴评级至“超配”,目标价从100美元上调至200美元,乐观估值更是达到300美元。大摩坦承,此前低估了人工智能驱动的云计算需求激增,以及阿里核心电商业务的韧性。大摩预测阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍,从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。阿里云的EBITDA利润率将从2025财年的约20%提高到2028财年的约35%。基于对阿里云增长前景的乐观预期,以及对电商业务韧性的重新评估,大摩预计,在基础情景下,阿里的分拆估值(SOTP)为每股200美元,其中云业务估值为每股60美元(对应5倍EV/销售额),结合阿里已发行股票数量,阿里云市值为1400亿美元。值得注意的是,吴泳铭24日宣布,未来三年,阿里将投入超过3800亿元用于建设云和AI硬件基础设施。这也创下中国民营企业在云和AI硬件基础设施建设领域有史以来最大规模投资纪录。阿里云:三年收入翻倍,AGI目标引领增长大摩分析师承认此前低估了阿里巴巴,特别是在人工智能驱动的云计算需求激增和核心电商业务韧性方面。大摩认为,作为中国最大的超大规模云服务商,阿里巴巴凭借其卓越的技术和备受好评的开源大语言模型(LLM)“通义千问”(Qwen),有望抓住AI云计算的巨大机遇。基于以下几点,大摩预测阿里云收入将在三年内翻倍,从2025财年的1180亿元增长至2028财年的2400亿元。AI需求激增: DeepSeek模型发布后,阿里云需求显著增长,其中推理需求占增量需求的60-70%。AI相关产品收入已连续六个季度实现三位数增长。激进的资本支出: 阿里巴巴在最近的2025财年第三季度财报中,承诺将在未来三年加大资本支出,预计将超过过去十年的总和(约3000亿人民币)。竞争格局改善: 中国云行业竞争激烈,虽盈利能力低于美国,但GPU(而非CPU)基础设施的竞争格局有所改善,供应限制仅限于少数几家超大规模云服务商(阿里巴巴、腾讯、字节跳动)。大摩预计,阿里云的EBITDA利润率将从2025财年的约20%提高到2028财年的约35%。虽然由于折旧增加,EBITA利润率在2026-2027财年将暂时下降至5-8%,但随着AI相关产品收入规模的扩大,预计将在2028财年恢复至8%,长期来看有望达到15%。估值重估:阿里云价值凸显,电商业务回暖基于对阿里云增长前景的乐观预期,以及对电商业务韧性的重新评估,大摩基于DCF模型,将目标阿里股价从100美元上调至180美元,对应2027财年的预期市盈率(P/E)为16.6倍,高于当前2026财年的13.6倍市盈率。基础情境下的分拆估值为每股200美元,其中TTG(阿里核心业务,包括淘天集团、国际电商业务、本地生活服务和菜鸟)估值为每股90美元(对应10倍市盈率),云业务估值为每股60美元(对应5倍EV/销售额)。在乐观情景下,分拆估值为每股300美元,其中TTG估值为每股120美元(对应12倍市盈率),云业务估值为每股100美元(对应7倍EV/销售额)。值得注意的是,在乐观情景下,阿里云的估值(100美元/股)已接近TTG的估值(120美元/股),凸显了其在阿里巴巴整体业务中的重要性。大摩同时将中国互联网行业的评级上调至“有吸引力”。报告认为,随着市场关注点转向中国的技术突破,中国互联网公司为AI的推动者和采用者提供了绝佳的投资机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.1,"09988":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3474710425515662","authorId":"3474710425515662","name":"T000002183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bbff0e969ac17bdc7ef80da5d04d629","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3474710425515662","idStr":"3474710425515662"},"content":"汉字姓发的研报不用看,全是垃圾","text":"汉字姓发的研报不用看,全是垃圾","html":"汉字姓发的研报不用看,全是垃圾"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":244149308543072,"gmtCreate":1700621307587,"gmtModify":1700621361009,"author":{"id":"4101710028431850","authorId":"4101710028431850","name":"咚咚锵123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101710028431850","idStr":"4101710028431850"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"他是华人么?","listText":"他是华人么?","text":"他是华人么?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/244149308543072","repostId":"1184488565","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":218736661496072,"gmtCreate":1694426487346,"gmtModify":1694427025695,"author":{"id":"4101710028431850","authorId":"4101710028431850","name":"咚咚锵123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101710028431850","idStr":"4101710028431850"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"很突然,有隐情?","listText":"很突然,有隐情?","text":"很突然,有隐情?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/218736661496072","repostId":"1126491653","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}