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财富是对认知的补偿而不是对勤奋的嘉奖

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- TseMingTatTseMingTat
  ·2025-03-19
  摩根大通后悔自己持有少，唱衰小米好加仓呢
  小米真的好，但也真的贵！又一家华尔街大行下调小米评级
  继瑞银后，摩根大通也对小米发表谨慎观点。瑞银此前同样表示小米估值已包含最乐观预期，股价存在进一步上涨的催化剂，但所需执行条件极为苛刻。小米股价近期大幅上涨，摩根大通却将其评级从"增持"下调至"中性"。股价进一步上涨的催化剂存在，但所需执行条件极为苛刻。这一预期已基本假设了小米电动车业务将完美执行，几乎没有犯错空间。2024年互联网服务业务仅贡献小米总收入的9%和毛利的34%。
  小米真的好，但也真的贵！又一家华尔街大行下调小米评级
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src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250319/348/w719h429/20250319/c341-ea4f94280eae8f34192ce10e7134aae5.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">摩根大通认为小米公司目前估值水平几乎没有留给市场惊喜的空间，当前12个月远期市盈率约40倍，估值接近历史峰值，仅次于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>等中国科技巨头，且已超越<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a></span><span></span>约17%</font>。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">此前，瑞银发表研报，同样表示小米的估值已包含最乐观预期，产能或限制电车业务爆发。瑞银认为：</p><blockquote><p cms-style=\"font-L\">在今年大涨近60%后，小米估值已经充分反映了其未来的增长潜力。<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">股价进一步上涨的催化剂存在，但所需执行条件极为苛刻</font>。</p></blockquote><p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">电动车业务估值已反映2030年175万辆出货量</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">根据摩根大通分析师计算，剔除核心业务和现金价值后，<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">小米当前股价已隐含其电动车业务将在2030年达到175万辆或2035年达到350万辆出货量，是2025年预期出货量的5倍以上</font>。这一预期已基本假设了小米电动车业务将完美执行，几乎没有犯错空间。</p><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250319/13/w1020h593/20250319/08c7-542d73b0876a8503cf7a478d2534dea8.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">相比之下，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>花了15年时间才达到约180万辆，比亚迪在2024年约为430万辆。<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">估值角度看，小米电动车业务已成为继特斯拉之后全球第二贵的电动车制造商，市值超过比亚迪17%，也明显高于中国其他纯电动车厂商如理想、小鹏、<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">赛力斯</a></span><span></span>等</font>。</p><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250319/633/w1013h420/20250319/1d00-32997e3346015b196105d818f20f5fe0.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">出色的硬件公司但缺乏平台经济特质</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">小米作为硬件公司在供应链专业知识和消费者品牌吸引力方面表现出色，能够在多个硬件品类如白色家电、厨房电器、智能家居和监控等领域复制成功经验，在中国获得市场份额并进入海外市场。电动车领域的早期成功也证明了这一点。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">然而，摩根大通认为小米尚未能像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>或腾讯那样创建强大的平台经济和可观的服务收入基础。<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">2024年互联网服务业务仅贡献小米总收入的9%和毛利的34%。预计未来3-5年内，互联网服务贡献将保持有限，因为硬件业务增长仍将是主要<span>驱动力</span><span></span></font>。因此，<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">目前高达40倍的市盈率可能难以在中长期内维持</font>。</p><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250319/515/w1010h305/20250319/bda5-8a525549db918e245d12d097ec9ddb52.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">小米继续在高端智能手机领域获得份额，IoT业务保持健康增长，受益于消费补贴和向高毛利品类如白色家电的扩张。<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">摩根大通预计2025年智能手机收入增长20%，但到2026年可能放缓，因为2025年消费补贴的影响将减弱。互联网服务收入增长仍然缓慢，核心收益预计在未来2-3年内保持中等增速</font>。</p><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250319/491/w993h298/20250319/8741-362d3fc6b98f7cc5044c48b170c1c4bd.png\"/><span>风险提示及免责条款</span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。          </p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小米真的好，但也真的贵！又一家华尔街大行下调小米评级\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-03-19 11:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-03-19/doc-ineqeanr1831830.shtml><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>继瑞银后，摩根大通也对小米发表谨慎观点。摩根大通将小米评级从“增持”下调至“中性”，认为其股价已充分反映市场对其电动车业务、智能手机和IoT增长的乐观预期，当前12个月远期市盈率约40倍，估值接近历史峰值。瑞银此前同样表示小米估值已包含最乐观预期，股价存在进一步上涨的催化剂，但所需执行条件极为苛刻。小米股价近期大幅上涨，摩根大通却将其评级从\"增持\"下调至\"中性\"。摩根大通认为小米基本面依然强劲，但...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-03-19/doc-ineqeanr1831830.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-03-19/doc-ineqeanr1831830.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2520913713","content_text":"继瑞银后，摩根大通也对小米发表谨慎观点。摩根大通将小米评级从“增持”下调至“中性”，认为其股价已充分反映市场对其电动车业务、智能手机和IoT增长的乐观预期，当前12个月远期市盈率约40倍，估值接近历史峰值。瑞银此前同样表示小米估值已包含最乐观预期，股价存在进一步上涨的催化剂，但所需执行条件极为苛刻。小米股价近期大幅上涨，摩根大通却将其评级从\"增持\"下调至\"中性\"。摩根大通认为小米基本面依然强劲，但股价已充分反映市场对电动车业务加速增长、智能手机和IoT份额提升以及智能眼镜、机器人和AI等新业务的乐观预期。3月19日小米港股低开上行，截至发稿升至58.85港元。摩根大通认为小米公司目前估值水平几乎没有留给市场惊喜的空间，当前12个月远期市盈率约40倍，估值接近历史峰值，仅次于腾讯和阿里巴巴等中国科技巨头，且已超越比亚迪约17%。此前，瑞银发表研报，同样表示小米的估值已包含最乐观预期，产能或限制电车业务爆发。瑞银认为：在今年大涨近60%后，小米估值已经充分反映了其未来的增长潜力。股价进一步上涨的催化剂存在，但所需执行条件极为苛刻。电动车业务估值已反映2030年175万辆出货量根据摩根大通分析师计算，剔除核心业务和现金价值后，小米当前股价已隐含其电动车业务将在2030年达到175万辆或2035年达到350万辆出货量，是2025年预期出货量的5倍以上。这一预期已基本假设了小米电动车业务将完美执行，几乎没有犯错空间。相比之下，特斯拉花了15年时间才达到约180万辆，比亚迪在2024年约为430万辆。估值角度看，小米电动车业务已成为继特斯拉之后全球第二贵的电动车制造商，市值超过比亚迪17%，也明显高于中国其他纯电动车厂商如理想、小鹏、赛力斯等。出色的硬件公司但缺乏平台经济特质小米作为硬件公司在供应链专业知识和消费者品牌吸引力方面表现出色，能够在多个硬件品类如白色家电、厨房电器、智能家居和监控等领域复制成功经验，在中国获得市场份额并进入海外市场。电动车领域的早期成功也证明了这一点。然而，摩根大通认为小米尚未能像苹果或腾讯那样创建强大的平台经济和可观的服务收入基础。2024年互联网服务业务仅贡献小米总收入的9%和毛利的34%。预计未来3-5年内，互联网服务贡献将保持有限，因为硬件业务增长仍将是主要驱动力。因此，目前高达40倍的市盈率可能难以在中长期内维持。小米继续在高端智能手机领域获得份额，IoT业务保持健康增长，受益于消费补贴和向高毛利品类如白色家电的扩张。摩根大通预计2025年智能手机收入增长20%，但到2026年可能放缓，因为2025年消费补贴的影响将减弱。互联网服务收入增长仍然缓慢，核心收益预计在未来2-3年内保持中等增速。风险提示及免责条款            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。          \n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}