个人中心 - 老虎社区

云中帆996

IP属地：山西

帖子 · 4帖子 · 4
关注 · 0关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0粉丝 · 0

- 云中帆996云中帆996
  ·10-07
  $霸王茶姬(CHA)$ [流泪]
  969 1
  1
  分享
  举报
- 云中帆996云中帆996
  ·10-07
  假如嫦娥也炒股，她的重仓股是比特币，爱神丘比特，射向嫦娥爱神之箭，使之比特币怒涨300万。
  1,015 评论
  2
  分享
  举报
- 云中帆996云中帆996
  ·07-01
  [强] [强] [强]
  期权女巫 | Circle多空对决激烈，如股价暂时平稳，这一期权策略则获利
  Circle在官网正式公布了上述消息，并表示，如果获得批准，第一国民数字货币银行将被授权作为受联邦监管的信托机构运营，接受OCC的监管，并将代表Circle的美国发行人监督USDC储备的管理。一旦"赢家通吃"的市场格局被打破，Circle的经济效益将显著受损。期权策略：在当前多空因素交织情况下，如果Circle股价暂时保持平稳，则以下期权策略获利：构建策略卖出一张7月3日到期、行权价为149美元的CRCL看跌期权。
  期权女巫 | Circle多空对决激烈，如股价暂时平稳，这一期权策略则获利
  993 评论
  1
  分享
  举报
- 云中帆996云中帆996
  ·05-15
  $联合健康(UNH)$ 3天掉100刀，天雷滚滚，每次抄底第二天都是树顶[流泪]
  762 评论
  1
  分享
  举报
暂无粉丝

热议股票

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"4207310099347632","uuid":"4207310099347632","gmtCreate":1744207547051,"gmtModify":1744593651742,"name":"云中帆996","pinyin":"yzf996yunzhongfan996","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":17,"tweetSize":4,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":1,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":1,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.08.15","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-1","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资经理虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到10万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.07.20","exceedPercentage":"60.45%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-1","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"精英交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到30次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.07.19","exceedPercentage":"60.66%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.05.15","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"location":"山西","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":10,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":486400802742408,"gmtCreate":1759800418365,"gmtModify":1759801217918,"author":{"id":"4207310099347632","authorId":"4207310099347632","name":"云中帆996","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4207310099347632","authorIdStr":"4207310099347632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHA\">$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ </a>&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHA\">$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ </a>&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ [流泪]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fed660c864a1c143e78bf4123f4502f1","width":"1192","height":"2086"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/486400802742408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":486471481983168,"gmtCreate":1759796193635,"gmtModify":1759796334066,"author":{"id":"4207310099347632","authorId":"4207310099347632","name":"云中帆996","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4207310099347632","authorIdStr":"4207310099347632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"假如嫦娥也炒股，她的重仓股是比特币，爱神丘比特，射向嫦娥爱神之箭，使之比特币怒涨300万。","listText":"假如嫦娥也炒股，她的重仓股是比特币，爱神丘比特，射向嫦娥爱神之箭，使之比特币怒涨300万。","text":"假如嫦娥也炒股，她的重仓股是比特币，爱神丘比特，射向嫦娥爱神之箭，使之比特币怒涨300万。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/486471481983168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":451916268769968,"gmtCreate":1751356782437,"gmtModify":1751357092633,"author":{"id":"4207310099347632","authorId":"4207310099347632","name":"云中帆996","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4207310099347632","authorIdStr":"4207310099347632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/451916268769968","repostId":"1178789614","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178789614","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1751352431,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178789614?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-01 14:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权女巫 | Circle多空对决激烈，如股价暂时平稳，这一期权策略则获利","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178789614","media":"期权女巫","summary":"Circle在官网正式公布了上述消息，并表示，如果获得批准，第一国民数字货币银行将被授权作为受联邦监管的信托机构运营，接受OCC的监管，并将代表Circle的美国发行人监督USDC储备的管理。一旦\"赢家通吃\"的市场格局被打破，Circle的经济效益将显著受损。期权策略：在当前多空因素交织情况下，如果Circle股价暂时保持平稳，则以下期权策略获利：构建策略卖出一张7月3日到期、行权价为149美元的CRCL看跌期权。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>全球第二大稳定币USDC的发行商 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">Circle Internet Corp.</a> （CRCL）近日多空对决激烈，一方面Circle在美申请信托牌照，持牌可托管自身资产；另一方面，华尔街券商对其给出了褒贬不一的评级，其中摩根大通给予Circle“减持”评级，2026年底目标价80美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_3003956450\">利好消息：</h2><p>Circle周一宣布，已正式向美国货币监理署（OCC）提交申请，拟设立一家国家级信托银行——第一国民数字货币银行（First National Digital Currency Bank, N.A.）。</p><p>Circle在官网正式公布了上述消息，并表示，如果获得批准，第一国民数字货币银行将被授权作为受联邦监管的信托机构运营，接受OCC的监管，并将代表Circle的美国发行人监督USDC储备的管理。此项批准还将进一步加强支持USDC发行和流通的基础设施，并向机构客户提供数字资产托管服务。获得联邦监管的信托牌照也将有助于Circle满足拟议的《GENIUS法案》的预期要求，这将标志着数字资产在融入美国更广泛的金融体系方面迈出了意义重大的一步。</p><h2 id=\"id_100368396\">利空消息：</h2><p>摩根大通（JPMorgan）分析师周一对Circle（CRCL）股票首次覆盖，给予其“减持”评级，并预计到2026年12月目标价为80美元，这一目标价较当前181美元股价有55.8%的下跌空间。</p><p>由Kenneth Worthington带领的摩根大通分析师团队，指出，Circle面临多重挑战，首先是估值高企，尽管看好Circle在稳定币市场的领先地位和USDC的增长前景，但公司当前估值已被推至&#34;舒适区之外&#34;，指出即便再给10%“情绪溢价”，也只有80美元。</p><p>同时，摩根大通警告，利率下行和分销成本上行形成“剪刀差”吞噬利润，Circle的商业模式高度依赖利率变化，97%的收入来自储备金收益，这使得公司盈利能力极易受到货币政策波动影响。其次，分销成本持续上升，或使毛利率从39%下降至34%。</p><p>摩根大通认为Circle面临激烈竞争威胁，特别是新进入者可能通过提供收益率来争夺市场份额，而稳定币业务的转换成本相对较低。一旦&#34;赢家通吃&#34;的市场格局被打破，Circle的经济效益将显著受损。</p><p>在行业规定的静默期结束后，巴克莱、伯恩斯坦、Canaccord Genuity和Needham也启动了覆盖研究，均给予相当于“买入”的评级，目标价均超过200美元。</p><p>高盛在启动覆盖时给予“中性”(neutral)评级，目标价83美元，并表示：“我们认为CRCL的业务和增长具有吸引力，但估值似乎偏高。”</p><p>德意志银行分析师补充道：“尽管我们看到稳定币在行业长期广泛应用的潜力，但结果的范围非常宽泛，并且至少在近中期内可能会在盈利修正和股价上造成巨大的波动。”</p><h2 id=\"id_2053924307\">期权策略：</h2><p>在当前多空因素交织情况下，如果Circle股价暂时保持平稳，则以下期权策略获利：</p><p><strong>构建策略</strong></p><p>卖出一张7月3日到期、行权价为149美元的CRCL看跌期权。</p><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRCL 20250703 149.0 PUT\" title=\"$CRCL 20250703 149.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$CRCL 20250703 149.0 PUT$  </a>‌</p><p><strong>盈亏概况</strong></p><p>卖出深度虚值看跌期权的核心策略在于通过收取权利金获利，前提是股价在到期日不低于行权价 。当前CRCL股价为181.29美元，远高于行权价149美元，策略成功率较高。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>最大收益（权利金） 0.95美元/合约（约95美元）</p></li><li><p>盈亏平衡点 149 - 0.95 = 148.05美元</p></li><li><p>下行保护空间 181.29 → 148.05（18.3%）</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e91dcb6c52ad63382dd3210a95c6fa17\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1352\"/></p><p><em>免责声明：以上分析基于当前市场数据，不构成投资建议。期权交易风险较高，请根据自身风险承受能力谨慎决策。</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权女巫 | Circle多空对决激烈，如股价暂时平稳，这一期权策略则获利</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | Circle多空对决激烈，如股价暂时平稳，这一期权策略则获利\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-07-01 14:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>全球第二大稳定币USDC的发行商 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">Circle Internet Corp.</a> （CRCL）近日多空对决激烈，一方面Circle在美申请信托牌照，持牌可托管自身资产；另一方面，华尔街券商对其给出了褒贬不一的评级，其中摩根大通给予Circle“减持”评级，2026年底目标价80美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_3003956450\">利好消息：</h2><p>Circle周一宣布，已正式向美国货币监理署（OCC）提交申请，拟设立一家国家级信托银行——第一国民数字货币银行（First National Digital Currency Bank, N.A.）。</p><p>Circle在官网正式公布了上述消息，并表示，如果获得批准，第一国民数字货币银行将被授权作为受联邦监管的信托机构运营，接受OCC的监管，并将代表Circle的美国发行人监督USDC储备的管理。此项批准还将进一步加强支持USDC发行和流通的基础设施，并向机构客户提供数字资产托管服务。获得联邦监管的信托牌照也将有助于Circle满足拟议的《GENIUS法案》的预期要求，这将标志着数字资产在融入美国更广泛的金融体系方面迈出了意义重大的一步。</p><h2 id=\"id_100368396\">利空消息：</h2><p>摩根大通（JPMorgan）分析师周一对Circle（CRCL）股票首次覆盖，给予其“减持”评级，并预计到2026年12月目标价为80美元，这一目标价较当前181美元股价有55.8%的下跌空间。</p><p>由Kenneth Worthington带领的摩根大通分析师团队，指出，Circle面临多重挑战，首先是估值高企，尽管看好Circle在稳定币市场的领先地位和USDC的增长前景，但公司当前估值已被推至&#34;舒适区之外&#34;，指出即便再给10%“情绪溢价”，也只有80美元。</p><p>同时，摩根大通警告，利率下行和分销成本上行形成“剪刀差”吞噬利润，Circle的商业模式高度依赖利率变化，97%的收入来自储备金收益，这使得公司盈利能力极易受到货币政策波动影响。其次，分销成本持续上升，或使毛利率从39%下降至34%。</p><p>摩根大通认为Circle面临激烈竞争威胁，特别是新进入者可能通过提供收益率来争夺市场份额，而稳定币业务的转换成本相对较低。一旦&#34;赢家通吃&#34;的市场格局被打破，Circle的经济效益将显著受损。</p><p>在行业规定的静默期结束后，巴克莱、伯恩斯坦、Canaccord Genuity和Needham也启动了覆盖研究，均给予相当于“买入”的评级，目标价均超过200美元。</p><p>高盛在启动覆盖时给予“中性”(neutral)评级，目标价83美元，并表示：“我们认为CRCL的业务和增长具有吸引力，但估值似乎偏高。”</p><p>德意志银行分析师补充道：“尽管我们看到稳定币在行业长期广泛应用的潜力，但结果的范围非常宽泛，并且至少在近中期内可能会在盈利修正和股价上造成巨大的波动。”</p><h2 id=\"id_2053924307\">期权策略：</h2><p>在当前多空因素交织情况下，如果Circle股价暂时保持平稳，则以下期权策略获利：</p><p><strong>构建策略</strong></p><p>卖出一张7月3日到期、行权价为149美元的CRCL看跌期权。</p><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRCL 20250703 149.0 PUT\" title=\"$CRCL 20250703 149.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$CRCL 20250703 149.0 PUT$  </a>‌</p><p><strong>盈亏概况</strong></p><p>卖出深度虚值看跌期权的核心策略在于通过收取权利金获利，前提是股价在到期日不低于行权价 。当前CRCL股价为181.29美元，远高于行权价149美元，策略成功率较高。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>最大收益（权利金） 0.95美元/合约（约95美元）</p></li><li><p>盈亏平衡点 149 - 0.95 = 148.05美元</p></li><li><p>下行保护空间 181.29 → 148.05（18.3%）</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e91dcb6c52ad63382dd3210a95c6fa17\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1352\"/></p><p><em>免责声明：以上分析基于当前市场数据，不构成投资建议。期权交易风险较高，请根据自身风险承受能力谨慎决策。</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cea46a3b7de8caa7c188e5c3d4d8a70b","relate_stocks":{"CRCL":"Circle Internet Corp."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178789614","content_text":"全球第二大稳定币USDC的发行商 Circle Internet Corp. （CRCL）近日多空对决激烈，一方面Circle在美申请信托牌照，持牌可托管自身资产；另一方面，华尔街券商对其给出了褒贬不一的评级，其中摩根大通给予Circle“减持”评级，2026年底目标价80美元。利好消息：Circle周一宣布，已正式向美国货币监理署（OCC）提交申请，拟设立一家国家级信托银行——第一国民数字货币银行（First National Digital Currency Bank, N.A.）。Circle在官网正式公布了上述消息，并表示，如果获得批准，第一国民数字货币银行将被授权作为受联邦监管的信托机构运营，接受OCC的监管，并将代表Circle的美国发行人监督USDC储备的管理。此项批准还将进一步加强支持USDC发行和流通的基础设施，并向机构客户提供数字资产托管服务。获得联邦监管的信托牌照也将有助于Circle满足拟议的《GENIUS法案》的预期要求，这将标志着数字资产在融入美国更广泛的金融体系方面迈出了意义重大的一步。利空消息：摩根大通（JPMorgan）分析师周一对Circle（CRCL）股票首次覆盖，给予其“减持”评级，并预计到2026年12月目标价为80美元，这一目标价较当前181美元股价有55.8%的下跌空间。由Kenneth Worthington带领的摩根大通分析师团队，指出，Circle面临多重挑战，首先是估值高企，尽管看好Circle在稳定币市场的领先地位和USDC的增长前景，但公司当前估值已被推至\"舒适区之外\"，指出即便再给10%“情绪溢价”，也只有80美元。同时，摩根大通警告，利率下行和分销成本上行形成“剪刀差”吞噬利润，Circle的商业模式高度依赖利率变化，97%的收入来自储备金收益，这使得公司盈利能力极易受到货币政策波动影响。其次，分销成本持续上升，或使毛利率从39%下降至34%。摩根大通认为Circle面临激烈竞争威胁，特别是新进入者可能通过提供收益率来争夺市场份额，而稳定币业务的转换成本相对较低。一旦\"赢家通吃\"的市场格局被打破，Circle的经济效益将显著受损。在行业规定的静默期结束后，巴克莱、伯恩斯坦、Canaccord Genuity和Needham也启动了覆盖研究，均给予相当于“买入”的评级，目标价均超过200美元。高盛在启动覆盖时给予“中性”(neutral)评级，目标价83美元，并表示：“我们认为CRCL的业务和增长具有吸引力，但估值似乎偏高。”德意志银行分析师补充道：“尽管我们看到稳定币在行业长期广泛应用的潜力，但结果的范围非常宽泛，并且至少在近中期内可能会在盈利修正和股价上造成巨大的波动。”期权策略：在当前多空因素交织情况下，如果Circle股价暂时保持平稳，则以下期权策略获利：构建策略卖出一张7月3日到期、行权价为149美元的CRCL看跌期权。‌$CRCL 20250703 149.0 PUT$  ‌盈亏概况卖出深度虚值看跌期权的核心策略在于通过收取权利金获利，前提是股价在到期日不低于行权价 。当前CRCL股价为181.29美元，远高于行权价149美元，策略成功率较高。最大收益（权利金） 0.95美元/合约（约95美元）盈亏平衡点 149 - 0.95 = 148.05美元下行保护空间 181.29 → 148.05（18.3%）免责声明：以上分析基于当前市场数据，不构成投资建议。期权交易风险较高，请根据自身风险承受能力谨慎决策。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRCL":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":993,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":435439490011472,"gmtCreate":1747318031268,"gmtModify":1747318584723,"author":{"id":"4207310099347632","authorId":"4207310099347632","name":"云中帆996","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4207310099347632","authorIdStr":"4207310099347632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$联合健康(UNH)$&nbsp;</a> 3天掉100刀，天雷滚滚，每次抄底第二天都是树顶[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$联合健康(UNH)$&nbsp;</a> 3天掉100刀，天雷滚滚，每次抄底第二天都是树顶[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$联合健康(UNH)$ 3天掉100刀，天雷滚滚，每次抄底第二天都是树顶[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/435439490011472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}