想供应商之前先想想它_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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画饼仙人马斯克
09-17

想供应商之前先想想它能不能量产吧，劣迹斑斑的记录。

特斯拉机器人，谁是它的供应商？

市场将此举解读为对特斯拉 AI 战略的强力背书，而人形机器人 Optimus 正是这一战略的核心载体。几乎同步，特斯拉机器人团队于 9 月 15 日启动国内 Tier1 供应商审厂工作，为 2026 年周度量产计划铺路，标志着产业链密集催化期的到来。这种差异化竞争格局，恰恰构成了 A 股特斯拉机器人供应链的安全边际。随着审厂进程推进和订单释放，特斯拉机器人供应链的投资价值将进一步显现。

特斯拉机器人，谁是它的供应商？

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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单车变跑车6
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- 画饼仙人马斯克回复Tesla up:
  嘿嘿，信徒就会急眼儿。希望教主能带你去火星，别在这儿丢人了。
  09-17 21:26
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- Tesla up回复画饼仙人马斯克:
  看你就知道你是自己从壳里破出来的早产儿
  09-17 21:22
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- 画饼仙人马斯克回复Tesla up:
  看你就知道马大炮的养殖业做得挺好的[开心]
  09-17 21:14
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万台产能目标能否如期实现？减速器、传感器等环节是否会出现新的突破者？目前来看，三花智控和拓普集团作为一级供应商，受益确定性最高；而埃斯顿等核心部件厂商则具备更大弹性空间。随着审厂进程推进和订单释放，特斯拉机器人供应链的投资价值将进一步显现。<strong>特斯拉机器人 A 股概念股整理</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250917073731576v163nxyjv0oo3gs\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉机器人，谁是它的供应商？</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250917073739953293ff&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","02050":"三花智控","BK4604":"机器人概念","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU1066051811.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS 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\"平衡器官\"，实时校正运动姿态；而分布在 28 个关节的执行器则是 \"肌肉系统\"，实现精准动作控制。这个过程类似人类完成抓取动作 —— 眼睛定位目标，大脑规划路径，肌肉协调执行，只不过 Optimus 用神经网络替代大脑，用电驱系统替代肌肉。特斯拉在人形机器人领域的进展呈现加速态势：2021 年提出概念原型，2023 年优化版实现自主行走，2024 年重点突破执行器量产工艺，2025 年启动供应链验证。关键推动因素包括三方面：汽车业务积累的电机控制技术快速迁移，Dojo 超算提供的强化学习算力支撑，以及特斯拉工厂自用场景带来的需求确定性。当前技术瓶颈集中在三个维度：一是能量密度，现有电池方案难以支撑 8 小时持续作业；二是精密控制，手指抓取力的细微调节仍需算法优化；三是成本控制，执行器当前成本占机器人总成本的 56%，其中行星滚柱丝杠、无框力矩电机等核心部件价格居高不下。这些瓶颈恰恰构成了产业链的投资机遇。产业落地：千亿赛道的价值链重构Optimus 的商业化将遵循 \"工业场景先行，家庭场景跟进\" 的路径。特斯拉计划 2025 年在自家工厂部署数千台原型机，用于零部件搬运、设备巡检等重复性工作，按马斯克规划，2026 年产能将达 5-10 万台，2027 年再增长 10 倍。东吴证券测算，仅特斯拉供应链自用需求就将催生百亿级执行器市场，若扩展至物流、家庭服务等场景，2030 年全球人形机器人市场规模有望突破千亿美金。产业链呈现明显的金字塔结构：上游是核心零部件，包括伺服电机（占执行器成本 35%）、谐波减速器（20%）、传感器（15%）；中游为系统集成商，负责执行器总成与整机装配；下游则是应用场景拓展商。价值分配呈现 \"上游壁垒高，中游弹性大\" 的特点 —— 上游核心部件毛利率普遍超过 50%，而中游集成环节将随量产规模扩大快速释放利润。从国产化率看，当前上游精密丝杠、高端传感器仍以海外企业为主，但电驱系统、结构件等领域已实现突破。特斯拉的供应链策略加速了这一进程，其对成本敏感的特性推动国内供应商在精度与成本间找到平衡点，例如要求执行器寿命达到 10 万小时的同时，成本较行业标准降低 40%。核心主体：A 股供应商的三级梯队格局一级供应商：三花智控 —— 从汽车热管理到机器人关节作为特斯拉汽车业务的老牌供应商，三花智控已深度切入机器人执行器领域，负责机电执行器的研发生产，产品覆盖直线与旋转两种类型。公司 2024 年初投资 50 亿元建设机器人部件生产基地，墨西哥工厂规划百万套级产能，专门适配 Optimus 量产需求。技术层面，其液冷散热模组解决了执行器长时间工作的发热问题，已通过特斯拉多轮验证并小批量供货。2025 年中报显示，相关业务带动净利润增长 39.31%，毛利率维持在 52% 以上的高水平。一级供应商：拓普集团 —— 电驱系统的隐形冠军拓普集团凭借汽车底盘技术积累，成为 Optimus 执行器总成核心供应商。公司 2024 年 1 月公告投资 50 亿元建设机器人核心部件基地，重点生产电驱执行器，目前已投产 2 条生产线，年产能达 30 万套。财务数据显示，其电驱系统营收从 2023 年的 185 万元飙升至 2024 年上半年的 627 万元，毛利率高达 52.32%。技术优势体现在三方面：自研永磁伺服电机、整合减速机构与控制器的系统能力、以及汽车级的质量管控体系，这些正是特斯拉量产阶段最看重的资质。核心配套商：埃斯顿 —— 伺服系统的后来居上者虽然非一级供应商，埃斯顿凭借伺服系统突破进入特斯拉供应链，2025 年 2 月获得 2000 台伺服系统订单用于关节控制。公司全产业链布局优势显著，从谐波减速器到空心杯电机均实现自研，参股公司发布的第二代人形机器人 Codroid 02 在重载场景技术参数与特斯拉需求高度匹配。相较于一级供应商，埃斯顿的弹性在于：伺服系统单机价值量虽不及执行器总成，但机器人每台需配备数十套，且公司市占率仍有较大提升空间。三家企业呈现清晰的定位差异：三花智控擅长精密流体控制，在热管理与执行器集成领域形成壁垒；拓普集团强调整机系统能力，能提供 \"电机 + 减速器 + 控制器\" 的打包方案；埃斯顿则聚焦核心部件突破，以伺服技术撬动市场。这种差异化竞争格局，恰恰构成了 A 股特斯拉机器人供应链的安全边际。结尾：技术迭代与投资逻辑的再思考未来 3-5 年，Optimus 将沿着 \"降本 - 放量 - 场景拓展\" 的路径演进：随着电机效率提升和规模化生产，单机成本有望从当前的 10 万美元降至 2 万美元临界点；应用场景将从特斯拉工厂逐步扩展至仓储物流、家庭服务等领域；而 AI 算法的迭代将使机器人具备自主学习新技能的能力。这一进程将重塑两个产业生态：对制造业而言，人形机器人可能改变 \"人口红利依赖\" 的发展模式，那些率先部署 Optimus 的工厂将获得成本优势；对机器人产业链而言，特斯拉的量产需求将推动核心部件国产化，形成 \"技术突破 - 产能扩张 - 成本下降\" 的正向循环。站在投资角度，需重点关注三个问题：执行器量产良率能否稳定在 95% 以上？2026 年特斯拉 5 万台产能目标能否如期实现？减速器、传感器等环节是否会出现新的突破者？目前来看，三花智控和拓普集团作为一级供应商，受益确定性最高；而埃斯顿等核心部件厂商则具备更大弹性空间。随着审厂进程推进和订单释放，特斯拉机器人供应链的投资价值将进一步显现。特斯拉机器人 A 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