Intel长期持有视角：别只盯财务，盯“拐点清单”_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Intel长期持有视角：别只盯财务，盯“拐点清单”

MooreCap
01-23

短期噪音：Q1供应真空、执行痛点 → 股价波动大（当前$51-52区间dip合理）。

中期催化（2026 H2-2027）：18A/14A客户落地（14A大单预计H2 2026起）、供应爬坡 + DC CPU涨价、Foundry减亏拐点、Ohio fab加速。

长期胜算：美国回流政策下，Intel控制全球20%+领先逻辑产能（本土唯一），AI推理/边缘/安全芯片需求爆炸，本土优先 + 关税护航 → 固定成本杠杆放大，利润弹性巨大。

“回流背书”比任何季度报表都硬。现在Intel有政策+地缘+技术三重背书，只要执行不永久掉链子，长期持有（3-5年+）的胜算远高于平均。$英特尔(INTC)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$

# 英特尔绩后大跳水！后市你还看好吗？

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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火火兔爸
·01-23
intel是比核电更确定的成长机会，因为台积电产能已经完全被包圆了，巨头如果不想在这场军备竞赛中落下，他是唯一可以依靠的快速成长的产能。只要它自己做好自己的生产，需求无忧。
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MooreCap
·01-23
Intel的 turnaround 已经在进行中，如果执行到位，他们不仅能守住现有订单，还能通过这些调整在2026-2027年拿下更多份额，预计数据中心CPU市场规模将从2025年的140亿美元增长到2033年的260亿美元。关键在于执行速度和创新落地。
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- MooreCap:
  产能优化和供应链调整：优先将生产资源从消费级CPU（如Raptor Lake）转向服务器级产品（如Xeon Granite Rapids和Sierra Forest）。当前需求过剩已导致Intel考虑将平均售价提高10-15%，这不仅是短期应对库存短缺的手段，还能提升利润率。同时，加速18A和14A节点的量产，以解决供应瓶颈，并利用美国本土制造优势吸引政府和 hyperscaler（如AWS、Google）的订单，避免依赖海外供应链风险。
  01-23
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小苹果儿
·01-23
好好好好好好好好
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RobinEvan
·01-23
拐点清单真硬，持有稳赢！
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a112
·01-23
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Intel长期持有视角：别只盯财务，盯“拐点清单”

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