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linhaifeng
IP属地:中国香港
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linhaifeng
linhaifeng
·
02-08
垃圾信息这么多
特朗普关税加码,台积电2025年先进制程或涨价超15%
日前,有消息称台积电计划在2025年对其先进制程的报价进行大幅调整,涨幅或超15%。然而,面对特朗普关税政策,台积电的运营成本正大幅增加。为了应对这一压力,台积电计划在2025年将其先进制程报价提高15%以上。对许多依赖台积电先进制程的客户而言,涨价无疑将直接影响其生产成本和利润空间。03美国设厂难解根本问题为缓解关税影响,台积电近年来大力投资美国市场,目前正在亚利桑那州建设其先进制程晶圆厂。
特朗普关税加码,台积电2025年先进制程或涨价超15%
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linhaifeng
linhaifeng
·
02-08
垃圾信息,垃圾发布
突破2纳米,日本芯片崛起,台积电不再一家独大
外媒报道指日本的Rapidus公司已确认2纳米工艺研发成功,今年4月试产,明年就将量产,量产时间几乎与台积电同步,如此一来台积电在先进工艺方面的垄断优势将被打破。如今日本Rapidus公司传出2纳米工艺研发进展顺利,也就意味着在2纳米工艺上,Rapidus公司将成为唯一可以与台积电较量的芯片代工企业,这将给台积电带来较大的压力,特别是美国芯片企业将非常欢迎日本进入芯片代工行业。
突破2纳米,日本芯片崛起,台积电不再一家独大
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linhaifeng
linhaifeng
·
2024-10-31
真能扯淡
台积电(TSM)盘前跌逾1% 称已做好面对台风准备程序 预期对运营影响不大
金吾财讯 | 台积电(TSM)盘前走低,暂跌1.04%,报192.45美元。公司表示,面对超强台风“康妮”,公司已启动所有工厂和工地的台风警报准备程序,预期对运营影响不大。
台积电(TSM)盘前跌逾1% 称已做好面对台风准备程序 预期对运营影响不大
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linhaifeng
linhaifeng
·
2024-10-22
闲屁
"若中国大陆武统,全美国科技行业恐任其摆布"
对于美国针对中国半导体行业的恶意封锁与打压行为,中国外交部发言人林剑此前曾强调,美国的限制措施无法阻挡中国科技的进步,反而会激发中国企业增强自主研发能力的决心。中国将持续关注相关动态,坚定捍卫自己的合法利益。
"若中国大陆武统,全美国科技行业恐任其摆布"
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linhaifeng
linhaifeng
·
2024-07-17
模棱两可的胡猜乱想
非常抱歉,此主贴已删除
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linhaifeng
linhaifeng
·
2022-08-08
看到空,意味着要多
Delete Snap Stock From Your Watchlist, Despite Drop to Pandemic Lows
A pandemic-era high-flier,Snap(SNAP) has fallen back to price levels last seen in 2020.This may make
Delete Snap Stock From Your Watchlist, Despite Drop to Pandemic Lows
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linhaifeng
linhaifeng
·
2022-07-16
押宝明年衰退
美股隔夜大逆转背后:前官员预测美联储“转向”时间!
华尔街“最懂美联储”的分析师:明年下半年不仅降息,还会提前结束缩表!
美股隔夜大逆转背后:前官员预测美联储“转向”时间!
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08:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普关税加码,台积电2025年先进制程或涨价超15%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2509706132","media":"芯界研习社","summary":"日前,有消息称台积电计划在2025年对其先进制程的报价进行大幅调整,涨幅或超15%。然而,面对特朗普关税政策,台积电的运营成本正大幅增加。为了应对这一压力,台积电计划在2025年将其先进制程报价提高15%以上。对许多依赖台积电先进制程的客户而言,涨价无疑将直接影响其生产成本和利润空间。03美国设厂难解根本问题为缓解关税影响,台积电近年来大力投资美国市场,目前正在亚利桑那州建设其先进制程晶圆厂。","content":"<html><body><article><p>随着特朗普开启第二任期,其极具争议性的关税政策再度成为全球半导体产业关注的焦点。日前,有消息称<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>计划在2025年对其先进制程的报价进行大幅调整,涨幅或超15%。这一消息引发了市场的广泛讨论,关税政策如何重塑全球芯片产业格局成为重要议题。</p><p><strong>01</strong></p><p><strong>特朗普关税政策回归的深远影响</strong></p><p>特朗普政府在其上一任期内,已通过多项贸易政策打击包括中国在内的全球供应链。此次关税政策回归,特朗普计划对包括芯片在内的进口产品征收高额关税,目标直指以中国台湾、韩国及中国为主要生产地的全球半导体制造商。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250208084119945v152omwbxgxg5co\"/><p>更值得注意的是,特朗普扬言对中国台湾地区生产的芯片征收高达100%的关税,迫使台积电等企业将更多产能转移至美国。虽然这一政策的初衷是推动半导体产业回流,但实际上却可能扰乱全球半导体市场的正常运行,进一步推高芯片和终端产品价格。</p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p><strong>台积电的应对策略与挑战</strong></p><p>作为全球最大的芯片代工厂,台积电长期以来占据着先进制程技术的制高点,其主要客户包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和AMD等全球科技巨头。然而,面对特朗普关税政策,台积电的运营成本正大幅增加。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250208084120616v1524vq9mwhyu3h\"/><p>为了应对这一压力,台积电计划在2025年将其先进制程(如3纳米及更小制程)报价提高15%以上。这一涨幅远超市场此前预计的5%-10%。关税政策叠加原材料价格上涨、技术研发成本攀升等多重因素,促使台积电不得不将成本压力向下游客户转嫁。</p><p>然而,这一价格调整也并非完全没有风险。对许多依赖台积电先进制程的客户而言,涨价无疑将直接影响其生产成本和利润空间。如果客户无法将这些成本进一步转嫁至消费者,可能会导致削减订单或寻求其他供应商的风险。</p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p><strong>美国设厂难解根本问题</strong></p><p>为缓解关税影响,台积电近年来大力投资美国市场,目前正在亚利桑那州建设其先进制程晶圆厂。然而,这一项目的推进充满挑战。首先,美国工厂的建设和运营成本显著高于中国台湾地区。据估算,台积电亚利桑那州工厂的盈利能力仅为中国台湾本土工厂的70%。其次,美国技术工人的短缺也对新厂的量产能力构成威胁。</p><p>此外,尽管美国政府此前宣布了高达520亿美元的半导体补贴计划,但特朗普政府的新团队已表态不会无条件支持任何企业。这让台积电在美国的扩张计划增添了更多不确定性。</p><p><strong>04</strong></p><p><strong>关税政策可能带来的连锁反应</strong></p><p>台积电的涨价计划不仅会对自身客户造成影响,还可能在全球供应链中引发连锁反应。终端电子产品的生产成本或将因此大幅增加,进而影响到消费电子产品的市场价格。特别是对于依赖先进制程芯片的智能手机、笔记本电脑和汽车制造商而言,涨价可能迫使他们重新评估生产和定价策略。</p><p>此外,其他半导体厂商如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>等可能趁机争夺市场份额。这一局势将加剧全球半导体市场的竞争,并进一步推高行业整合的风险。</p><p><strong>05</strong></p><p><strong>全球芯片格局或将重塑</strong></p><p>特朗普的关税政策不仅意在推动半导体制造本土化,更试图削弱台积电在全球芯片代工市场的主导地位。然而,从长远来看,关税政策带来的市场干扰可能反而加速全球芯片产业链的分裂。</p><p>中国大陆在这一过程中或将进一步加大芯片国产化的力度。近年来,中国半导体产业的崛起已经成为全球关注的焦点。在先进制程领域,虽然与台积电尚有差距,但中国企业如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">中芯国际</a>正在快速追赶。关税政策的外部压力,或许将促使中国企业在技术研发和自给自足方面投入更多资源,推动国内半导体行业的整体发展。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普关税加码,台积电2025年先进制程或涨价超15%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普关税加码,台积电2025年先进制程或涨价超15%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-08 08:40 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250208084122abc6ac45&s=b><strong>芯界研习社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着特朗普开启第二任期,其极具争议性的关税政策再度成为全球半导体产业关注的焦点。日前,有消息称台积电计划在2025年对其先进制程的报价进行大幅调整,涨幅或超15%。这一消息引发了市场的广泛讨论,关税政策如何重塑全球芯片产业格局成为重要议题。01特朗普关税政策回归的深远影响特朗普政府在其上一任期内,已通过多项贸易政策打击包括中国在内的全球供应链。此次关税政策回归,特朗普计划对包括芯片在内的进口产品...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250208084122abc6ac45&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","LU1868837722.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU2663582299.SGD":"BSF BLACKROCK SYSTEMATIC ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY ABSOL \"A2\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4591":"室温超导概念","SG9999004220.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Asia Dividend Equity Fund SGD","LU1211504680.USD":"ALLIANZ HIGH DIVIDEND ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","TSM":"台积电","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY 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ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250208084122abc6ac45&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2509706132","content_text":"随着特朗普开启第二任期,其极具争议性的关税政策再度成为全球半导体产业关注的焦点。日前,有消息称台积电计划在2025年对其先进制程的报价进行大幅调整,涨幅或超15%。这一消息引发了市场的广泛讨论,关税政策如何重塑全球芯片产业格局成为重要议题。01特朗普关税政策回归的深远影响特朗普政府在其上一任期内,已通过多项贸易政策打击包括中国在内的全球供应链。此次关税政策回归,特朗普计划对包括芯片在内的进口产品征收高额关税,目标直指以中国台湾、韩国及中国为主要生产地的全球半导体制造商。更值得注意的是,特朗普扬言对中国台湾地区生产的芯片征收高达100%的关税,迫使台积电等企业将更多产能转移至美国。虽然这一政策的初衷是推动半导体产业回流,但实际上却可能扰乱全球半导体市场的正常运行,进一步推高芯片和终端产品价格。02台积电的应对策略与挑战作为全球最大的芯片代工厂,台积电长期以来占据着先进制程技术的制高点,其主要客户包括苹果、英伟达和AMD等全球科技巨头。然而,面对特朗普关税政策,台积电的运营成本正大幅增加。为了应对这一压力,台积电计划在2025年将其先进制程(如3纳米及更小制程)报价提高15%以上。这一涨幅远超市场此前预计的5%-10%。关税政策叠加原材料价格上涨、技术研发成本攀升等多重因素,促使台积电不得不将成本压力向下游客户转嫁。然而,这一价格调整也并非完全没有风险。对许多依赖台积电先进制程的客户而言,涨价无疑将直接影响其生产成本和利润空间。如果客户无法将这些成本进一步转嫁至消费者,可能会导致削减订单或寻求其他供应商的风险。03美国设厂难解根本问题为缓解关税影响,台积电近年来大力投资美国市场,目前正在亚利桑那州建设其先进制程晶圆厂。然而,这一项目的推进充满挑战。首先,美国工厂的建设和运营成本显著高于中国台湾地区。据估算,台积电亚利桑那州工厂的盈利能力仅为中国台湾本土工厂的70%。其次,美国技术工人的短缺也对新厂的量产能力构成威胁。此外,尽管美国政府此前宣布了高达520亿美元的半导体补贴计划,但特朗普政府的新团队已表态不会无条件支持任何企业。这让台积电在美国的扩张计划增添了更多不确定性。04关税政策可能带来的连锁反应台积电的涨价计划不仅会对自身客户造成影响,还可能在全球供应链中引发连锁反应。终端电子产品的生产成本或将因此大幅增加,进而影响到消费电子产品的市场价格。特别是对于依赖先进制程芯片的智能手机、笔记本电脑和汽车制造商而言,涨价可能迫使他们重新评估生产和定价策略。此外,其他半导体厂商如三星电子、英特尔等可能趁机争夺市场份额。这一局势将加剧全球半导体市场的竞争,并进一步推高行业整合的风险。05全球芯片格局或将重塑特朗普的关税政策不仅意在推动半导体制造本土化,更试图削弱台积电在全球芯片代工市场的主导地位。然而,从长远来看,关税政策带来的市场干扰可能反而加速全球芯片产业链的分裂。中国大陆在这一过程中或将进一步加大芯片国产化的力度。近年来,中国半导体产业的崛起已经成为全球关注的焦点。在先进制程领域,虽然与台积电尚有差距,但中国企业如中芯国际正在快速追赶。关税政策的外部压力,或许将促使中国企业在技术研发和自给自足方面投入更多资源,推动国内半导体行业的整体发展。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03145":0.6,"TSM":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":401387034431664,"gmtCreate":1739002662135,"gmtModify":1739003314349,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"垃圾信息,垃圾发布","listText":"垃圾信息,垃圾发布","text":"垃圾信息,垃圾发布","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/401387034431664","repostId":"2509870440","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2509870440","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1738979820,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2509870440?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-08 09:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"突破2纳米,日本芯片崛起,台积电不再一家独大","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2509870440","media":"Ofweek光电信息网","summary":"外媒报道指日本的Rapidus公司已确认2纳米工艺研发成功,今年4月试产,明年就将量产,量产时间几乎与台积电同步,如此一来台积电在先进工艺方面的垄断优势将被打破。如今日本Rapidus公司传出2纳米工艺研发进展顺利,也就意味着在2纳米工艺上,Rapidus公司将成为唯一可以与台积电较量的芯片代工企业,这将给台积电带来较大的压力,特别是美国芯片企业将非常欢迎日本进入芯片代工行业。","content":"<html><body><article><p>外媒报道指日本的Rapidus公司已确认2纳米工艺研发成功,今年4月试产,明年就将量产,量产时间几乎与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>同步,如此一来台积电在先进工艺方面的垄断优势将被打破。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250208100141505d1528cv5qr9slt8\"/><p>据悉Rapidus这次相当大手笔,一次过筹建两条生产线,采购了10台2纳米EUV光刻机,可以看出日本方面从一开始就计划大规模量产,力求在全球芯片制造市场分羹。</p><p>当下全球芯片代工市场已基本由台积电一家独大,过去数年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>曾拥有与台积电较量的实力,但是随着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>将订单从三星转移到台积电,全球芯片行业都认识到三星在芯片代工市场已无法与台积电较量,普遍认为三星在7纳米以下工艺的晶体管密度都不如台积电。</p><p>三星在7纳米以下工艺落败,导致三星在芯片代工市场的份额迅速从两成左右跌至一成以下,也是2024年全球前十大芯片代工企业中唯一下跌的企业,更导致三星不得不大举缩减芯片产能,特别是5纳米和3纳米工艺产能缩减三成以上。</p><p>如今日本Rapidus公司传出2纳米工艺研发进展顺利,也就意味着在2纳米工艺上,Rapidus公司将成为唯一可以与台积电较量的芯片代工企业,这将给台积电带来较大的压力,特别是美国芯片企业将非常欢迎日本进入芯片代工行业。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250208100142880d152rcb18hqz4dr\"/><p>美国曾意图扶持Intel发展芯片代工,但是Intel在2纳米工艺上研发进展缓慢,发展芯片代工业务还导致Intel亏损了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元,这已导致Intel的CEO基辛格被迫退休,如今Intel正在寻找新的CEO,它能否顺利研发2纳米工艺已面临巨大变数。</p><p>由于三星没能制衡台积电,Intel又无法挑战台积电,台积电如今底气十足,在去年大幅涨价之后,今年继续进一步涨价,作为台积电大客户的美国芯片(美国芯片为台积电贡献七成收入)已失去了议价权,只能接受台积电的涨价要求。</p><p>如此情况下,美国芯片行业当然欢迎Rapidus公司发展先进工艺,如此将有助于美国芯片迫使台积电降价,避免台积电持续收割美国芯片,毕竟一直受制于台积电让美国芯片相当难受。</p><p>对日本芯片来说,这也是千载难逢的机会,1990年代及之前,日本芯片曾占有全球芯片市场五成市场份额,但是在美国的打压之下,中国台湾和韩国的芯片产业才迎来了发展机会,中国台湾发展起芯片代工,而韩国则占领存储芯片市场,日本芯片到如今占全球芯片市场的份额大约只剩下一成左右的份额。</p><p>日本芯片仍然有一定的积累,在芯片设备和芯片材料方面,日本占据较大的市场份额,这些技术积累让它能迅速崛起,如今美国需要它制衡台积电,日本芯片行业当然要抓住机会。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250208100144466d152q3dsnhtj3uu\"/><p>不过2纳米工艺的技术研发难度非常大,三星和台积电从7纳米、5纳米到3纳米一直在较量,最终失败,日本芯片是否能如它所言迅速打破2纳米工艺仍然值得观察,毕竟日本芯片迅速在如此先进的技术上取得突破,还是存在许多困难的。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n突破2纳米,日本芯片崛起,台积电不再一家独大\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-08 09:57 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250208100152961bb02f&s=b><strong>Ofweek光电信息网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>外媒报道指日本的Rapidus公司已确认2纳米工艺研发成功,今年4月试产,明年就将量产,量产时间几乎与台积电同步,如此一来台积电在先进工艺方面的垄断优势将被打破。据悉Rapidus这次相当大手笔,一次过筹建两条生产线,采购了10台2纳米EUV光刻机,可以看出日本方面从一开始就计划大规模量产,力求在全球芯片制造市场分羹。当下全球芯片代工市场已基本由台积电一家独大,过去数年三星曾拥有与台积电较量的实力...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250208100152961bb02f&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","TSM":"台积电","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" 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Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 SGD","LU0488056044.USD":"Allianz Asian Multi Income Plus Cl AM DIS USD","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU2294711713.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (HKD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0143863198.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0878005551.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC ASIA ALLOCATION OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250208100152961bb02f&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2509870440","content_text":"外媒报道指日本的Rapidus公司已确认2纳米工艺研发成功,今年4月试产,明年就将量产,量产时间几乎与台积电同步,如此一来台积电在先进工艺方面的垄断优势将被打破。据悉Rapidus这次相当大手笔,一次过筹建两条生产线,采购了10台2纳米EUV光刻机,可以看出日本方面从一开始就计划大规模量产,力求在全球芯片制造市场分羹。当下全球芯片代工市场已基本由台积电一家独大,过去数年三星曾拥有与台积电较量的实力,但是随着高通将订单从三星转移到台积电,全球芯片行业都认识到三星在芯片代工市场已无法与台积电较量,普遍认为三星在7纳米以下工艺的晶体管密度都不如台积电。三星在7纳米以下工艺落败,导致三星在芯片代工市场的份额迅速从两成左右跌至一成以下,也是2024年全球前十大芯片代工企业中唯一下跌的企业,更导致三星不得不大举缩减芯片产能,特别是5纳米和3纳米工艺产能缩减三成以上。如今日本Rapidus公司传出2纳米工艺研发进展顺利,也就意味着在2纳米工艺上,Rapidus公司将成为唯一可以与台积电较量的芯片代工企业,这将给台积电带来较大的压力,特别是美国芯片企业将非常欢迎日本进入芯片代工行业。美国曾意图扶持Intel发展芯片代工,但是Intel在2纳米工艺上研发进展缓慢,发展芯片代工业务还导致Intel亏损了数百亿美元,这已导致Intel的CEO基辛格被迫退休,如今Intel正在寻找新的CEO,它能否顺利研发2纳米工艺已面临巨大变数。由于三星没能制衡台积电,Intel又无法挑战台积电,台积电如今底气十足,在去年大幅涨价之后,今年继续进一步涨价,作为台积电大客户的美国芯片(美国芯片为台积电贡献七成收入)已失去了议价权,只能接受台积电的涨价要求。如此情况下,美国芯片行业当然欢迎Rapidus公司发展先进工艺,如此将有助于美国芯片迫使台积电降价,避免台积电持续收割美国芯片,毕竟一直受制于台积电让美国芯片相当难受。对日本芯片来说,这也是千载难逢的机会,1990年代及之前,日本芯片曾占有全球芯片市场五成市场份额,但是在美国的打压之下,中国台湾和韩国的芯片产业才迎来了发展机会,中国台湾发展起芯片代工,而韩国则占领存储芯片市场,日本芯片到如今占全球芯片市场的份额大约只剩下一成左右的份额。日本芯片仍然有一定的积累,在芯片设备和芯片材料方面,日本占据较大的市场份额,这些技术积累让它能迅速崛起,如今美国需要它制衡台积电,日本芯片行业当然要抓住机会。不过2纳米工艺的技术研发难度非常大,三星和台积电从7纳米、5纳米到3纳米一直在较量,最终失败,日本芯片是否能如它所言迅速打破2纳米工艺仍然值得观察,毕竟日本芯片迅速在如此先进的技术上取得突破,还是存在许多困难的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03145":0.6,"TSM":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365942568136896,"gmtCreate":1730367590530,"gmtModify":1730368474639,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真能扯淡","listText":"真能扯淡","text":"真能扯淡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365942568136896","repostId":"2479774478","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2479774478","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"「金吾财讯」以精准用户需求为切入点,打造一站式港美股投资细分领域品牌。依托战略合作伙伴凤凰网财经,将港美股内容传播到全球华人圈。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"金吾财讯","id":"1086022552","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a93586c3b023ec6ebfed568990555c"},"pubTimestamp":1730365045,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2479774478?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-31 16:57","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"台积电(TSM)盘前跌逾1% 称已做好面对台风准备程序 预期对运营影响不大","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2479774478","media":"金吾财讯","summary":"金吾财讯 | 台积电(TSM)盘前走低,暂跌1.04%,报192.45美元。公司表示,面对超强台风“康妮”,公司已启动所有工厂和工地的台风警报准备程序,预期对运营影响不大。","content":"<html><body><p>金吾财讯 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>(TSM)盘前走低,暂跌1.04%,报192.45美元。公司表示,面对超强台风“康妮”,公司已启动所有工厂和工地的台风警报准备程序,预期对运营影响不大。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>台积电(TSM)盘前跌逾1% 称已做好面对台风准备程序 预期对运营影响不大</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>(TSM)盘前走低,暂跌1.04%,报192.45美元。公司表示,面对超强台风“康妮”,公司已启动所有工厂和工地的台风警报准备程序,预期对运营影响不大。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.szfiu.com/news/20210625/MWQzMTFhODQyN2JiYzIyN2I5NDJhMjljMWNiNDgxMjMwMDQxMDc4NA==.jpg","relate_stocks":{"EWT":"台湾ETF-iShares MSCI","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868837722.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BQXX3F31.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (USD) ACC","BK4591":"室温超导概念","LU1211504680.USD":"ALLIANZ HIGH DIVIDEND ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","TSM":"台积电","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","LU0541501648.USD":"ALLSPRING EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0572940350.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A3 SGD","IE00B5TLWC47.USD":"BNY MELLON 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台积电(TSM)盘前走低,暂跌1.04%,报192.45美元。公司表示,面对超强台风“康妮”,公司已启动所有工厂和工地的台风警报准备程序,预期对运营影响不大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03145":0.6,"EWT":0.6,"TWmain":1,"TSM":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362816356655344,"gmtCreate":1729600570903,"gmtModify":1729602225995,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"闲屁","listText":"闲屁","text":"闲屁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362816356655344","repostId":"2477938333","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2477938333","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1729589400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2477938333?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-22 17:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"若中国大陆武统,全美国科技行业恐任其摆布\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2477938333","media":"观察者网","summary":"对于美国针对中国半导体行业的恶意封锁与打压行为,中国外交部发言人林剑此前曾强调,美国的限制措施无法阻挡中国科技的进步,反而会激发中国企业增强自主研发能力的决心。中国将持续关注相关动态,坚定捍卫自己的合法利益。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color330\">► 文 观察者网 熊超然</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">“在前一代人心中,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>在任何美国最受尊敬的制造商榜单中都是名列前茅。这两家公司曾经为世界一流的工程和制造树立了标准,但如今都遭遇危机,更引发了国家性的紧急情况,让美国的实力被大幅削减。”</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">一段时间以来,上述两家美国公司可谓“跌落神坛”,岌岌可危——英特尔暂停派息、裁员、削减支出,还成为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>的收购目标;而波音则一直受到坠机调查、空中事故、生产延误以及员工罢工的困扰。对这两家美企而言,被拆分或破产不再是不可能的事情。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">由此一系列展开,《华尔街日报》当地时间10月21日发布报道文章认为,在过去的五年里,英特尔和波音的总市值下降了一半,这不仅是对股东的考验,也是对美国的潜在灾难。文章坦言,这两家企业的陨落甚至都不是因为外国竞争者的冲击,而是“自甘堕落”、“自作自受”、“自掘坟墓”。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">这家美媒甚至“操心”起来,声称英特尔的节节败退不但会导致<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>的发展壮大,而一旦中国大陆在未来几年“征服台湾”,整个美国科技行业可能会任对方摆布。</p><div><img cms-height=\"327.641\" cms-width=\"530\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20241022s/91/w1045h646/20241022/6412-d52984b28dc61f664c6cbdc614d392cb.jpg\"/><span>波音和英特尔logo 美媒资料图</span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">文章开始便提到,中美两国的地缘政治竞争不仅仅是取决于比拼“谁拳头更大”的军事实力,还取决于经济和科技实力。正因如此,美国两党高层达成的共识是,推动加征关税以及补贴措施。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">然而,这些举措并不能解决英特尔和波音所存在的根本性问题,尽管美国仍然设计着世界上最具创新性的产品,但正在失去制造这些产品的诀窍。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">1999年底,美国最有价值的10家公司中,有4家是制造业厂商。如今,这样的制造业厂商已经榜上无名。唯一的后起之秀是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>,仅排名第11位。英特尔和波音曾一度是制造高质量、满足严格规格要求的开创性产品的金标典范,但现在已经不再是。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">美媒“怒其不争”地指出,英特尔和波音的企业文化,早已逐渐演变为优先考虑财务业绩,而非卓越的工程设计,同样的问题,也导致另一个美国的“制造业偶像”——通用电气的衰落。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">由于觉得利润不够丰厚,英特尔放弃了为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>首款iPhone生产芯片的计划,而其在采用最新技术来蚀刻最小电路方面行动迟缓,因此错过了人工智能的蓬勃发展期。</p><div><img cms-height=\"380.281\" cms-width=\"530\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20241022s/574/w800h574/20241022/7ca2-d1c2c1eb24e8951eaf149cd5522b1274.jpg\"/><span>资料图:位于美国加利福尼亚州的英特尔公司总部IC Photo</span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">波音则认为,借助软件在其畅销的737飞机上增加更高效的发动机会比完全重新设计或更换飞机更便宜、更快捷,然而这却导致了两起致命空难。新冠疫情大流行期间,其供应链的外包以及大量熟练机械师的流失,导致了质量问题频发以及生产延误。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">“既然他们的问题是自己造成的,那么任由他们自食其果,似乎是个不错的选择。投资者可能会不屑一顾地认为,英特尔的市值已不足1000亿美元,而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、苹果和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>三家公司的市值总和高达10万亿美元。”</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">《华尔街日报》引出这段话,随后补充指出,可是问题在于,如果这些科技巨头没有委托制造的先进半导体,他们的软件和设备都将无用武之地,尤其是那些委托给台积电生产的半导体。该报随后“图穷匕见”地声称,如果中国大陆在未来几年内真的实现对台湾的“征服”,那么整个美国科技行业都将任由对方摆布。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">《华尔街日报》“暗自庆幸”称,虽然马斯克的SpaceX公司在太空运输方面已经超越了波音公司,但在大型商用客机方面,却没有本土的替代供应商。文章认为,一旦波音被踢出局,这一领域的业务将会落入其竞争对手空客公司之手,但最终迟早会落入中国商用飞机公司(简称中国商飞)之手,中国商飞目前正在交付其与波音737和空客A320的竞争机型——C919。</p><div><img cms-height=\"297.953\" cms-width=\"530\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20241022s/356/w740h416/20241022/ff0c-a38cc376f2f590b10c4a169e179ae7f9.png\"/><span>1月5日,阿拉斯加航空公司1282航班波音737 MAX 9型客机舱壁发生脱落。 社交媒体图</span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">美国信息技术与创新基金会(ITIF)主席罗伯特·阿特金森(Robert Atkinson)认为,英特尔的失败将对美国支撑半导体生态系统和从东亚地区夺回市场份额的努力造成沉重打击。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">《华尔街日报》则声称,欧洲政府都在“大力补贴”空客公司,中国则“不惜一切代价追求在关键技术上的主导地位”,而包括台积电这样的企业也从美国所谓的《芯片和科学法案》中获得66亿美元的补贴。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">不过,这篇文章也不得不承认,所谓《芯片和科学法案》鼓励台积电和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>在美国建厂,实际上帮助了美国的半导体厂商,这些美企都获得了补贴。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">对于美国针对中国半导体行业的恶意封锁与打压行为,中国外交部发言人林剑此前曾强调,美国的限制措施无法阻挡中国科技的进步,反而会激发中国企业增强自主研发能力的决心。中国将持续关注相关动态,坚定捍卫自己的合法利益。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">来源|观察者网</p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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熊超然“在前一代人心中,英特尔和波音在任何美国最受尊敬的制造商榜单中都是名列前茅。这两家公司曾经为世界一流的工程和制造树立了标准,但如今都遭遇危机,更引发了国家性的紧急情况,让美国的实力被大幅削减。”一段时间以来,上述两家美国公司可谓“跌落神坛”,岌岌可危——英特尔暂停派息、裁员、削减支出,还成为了高通的收购目标;而波音则一直受到坠机调查、空中事故、生产延误以及员工罢工的困扰。对...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2024-10-22/doc-inctmnkx8364651.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU0572940350.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A3 SGD","LU0889566641.SGD":"FTSF - Templeton Shariah Global Equity A Acc SGD","BK4515":"5G概念","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0792757196.USD":"TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0541502299.USD":"ALLSPRING EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA 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ACC","BK4529":"IDC概念"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2024-10-22/doc-inctmnkx8364651.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2477938333","content_text":"► 文 观察者网 熊超然“在前一代人心中,英特尔和波音在任何美国最受尊敬的制造商榜单中都是名列前茅。这两家公司曾经为世界一流的工程和制造树立了标准,但如今都遭遇危机,更引发了国家性的紧急情况,让美国的实力被大幅削减。”一段时间以来,上述两家美国公司可谓“跌落神坛”,岌岌可危——英特尔暂停派息、裁员、削减支出,还成为了高通的收购目标;而波音则一直受到坠机调查、空中事故、生产延误以及员工罢工的困扰。对这两家美企而言,被拆分或破产不再是不可能的事情。由此一系列展开,《华尔街日报》当地时间10月21日发布报道文章认为,在过去的五年里,英特尔和波音的总市值下降了一半,这不仅是对股东的考验,也是对美国的潜在灾难。文章坦言,这两家企业的陨落甚至都不是因为外国竞争者的冲击,而是“自甘堕落”、“自作自受”、“自掘坟墓”。这家美媒甚至“操心”起来,声称英特尔的节节败退不但会导致台积电的发展壮大,而一旦中国大陆在未来几年“征服台湾”,整个美国科技行业可能会任对方摆布。波音和英特尔logo 美媒资料图文章开始便提到,中美两国的地缘政治竞争不仅仅是取决于比拼“谁拳头更大”的军事实力,还取决于经济和科技实力。正因如此,美国两党高层达成的共识是,推动加征关税以及补贴措施。然而,这些举措并不能解决英特尔和波音所存在的根本性问题,尽管美国仍然设计着世界上最具创新性的产品,但正在失去制造这些产品的诀窍。1999年底,美国最有价值的10家公司中,有4家是制造业厂商。如今,这样的制造业厂商已经榜上无名。唯一的后起之秀是特斯拉,仅排名第11位。英特尔和波音曾一度是制造高质量、满足严格规格要求的开创性产品的金标典范,但现在已经不再是。美媒“怒其不争”地指出,英特尔和波音的企业文化,早已逐渐演变为优先考虑财务业绩,而非卓越的工程设计,同样的问题,也导致另一个美国的“制造业偶像”——通用电气的衰落。由于觉得利润不够丰厚,英特尔放弃了为苹果首款iPhone生产芯片的计划,而其在采用最新技术来蚀刻最小电路方面行动迟缓,因此错过了人工智能的蓬勃发展期。资料图:位于美国加利福尼亚州的英特尔公司总部IC Photo波音则认为,借助软件在其畅销的737飞机上增加更高效的发动机会比完全重新设计或更换飞机更便宜、更快捷,然而这却导致了两起致命空难。新冠疫情大流行期间,其供应链的外包以及大量熟练机械师的流失,导致了质量问题频发以及生产延误。“既然他们的问题是自己造成的,那么任由他们自食其果,似乎是个不错的选择。投资者可能会不屑一顾地认为,英特尔的市值已不足1000亿美元,而微软、苹果和英伟达三家公司的市值总和高达10万亿美元。”《华尔街日报》引出这段话,随后补充指出,可是问题在于,如果这些科技巨头没有委托制造的先进半导体,他们的软件和设备都将无用武之地,尤其是那些委托给台积电生产的半导体。该报随后“图穷匕见”地声称,如果中国大陆在未来几年内真的实现对台湾的“征服”,那么整个美国科技行业都将任由对方摆布。《华尔街日报》“暗自庆幸”称,虽然马斯克的SpaceX公司在太空运输方面已经超越了波音公司,但在大型商用客机方面,却没有本土的替代供应商。文章认为,一旦波音被踢出局,这一领域的业务将会落入其竞争对手空客公司之手,但最终迟早会落入中国商用飞机公司(简称中国商飞)之手,中国商飞目前正在交付其与波音737和空客A320的竞争机型——C919。1月5日,阿拉斯加航空公司1282航班波音737 MAX 9型客机舱壁发生脱落。 社交媒体图美国信息技术与创新基金会(ITIF)主席罗伯特·阿特金森(Robert Atkinson)认为,英特尔的失败将对美国支撑半导体生态系统和从东亚地区夺回市场份额的努力造成沉重打击。《华尔街日报》则声称,欧洲政府都在“大力补贴”空客公司,中国则“不惜一切代价追求在关键技术上的主导地位”,而包括台积电这样的企业也从美国所谓的《芯片和科学法案》中获得66亿美元的补贴。不过,这篇文章也不得不承认,所谓《芯片和科学法案》鼓励台积电和三星在美国建厂,实际上帮助了美国的半导体厂商,这些美企都获得了补贴。对于美国针对中国半导体行业的恶意封锁与打压行为,中国外交部发言人林剑此前曾强调,美国的限制措施无法阻挡中国科技的进步,反而会激发中国企业增强自主研发能力的决心。中国将持续关注相关动态,坚定捍卫自己的合法利益。来源|观察者网\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03145":0.6,"AAPL":0.6,"BA":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"TSM":0.8}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328422669488408,"gmtCreate":1721195818941,"gmtModify":1721195820853,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"模棱两可的胡猜乱想","listText":"模棱两可的胡猜乱想","text":"模棱两可的胡猜乱想","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328422669488408","repostId":"2451623297","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685775000,"gmtCreate":1659966420002,"gmtModify":1659966420002,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看到空,意味着要多","listText":"看到空,意味着要多","text":"看到空,意味着要多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685775000","repostId":"1156938348","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156938348","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659754928,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156938348?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-06 11:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Delete Snap Stock From Your Watchlist, Despite Drop to Pandemic Lows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156938348","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"A pandemic-era high-flier,Snap(SNAP) has fallen back to price levels last seen in 2020.This may make","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>A pandemic-era high-flier,<b>Snap</b>(<b>SNAP</b>) has fallen back to price levels last seen in 2020.</li><li>This may make it seem like a bargain at first glance, but its latest fiscal results signal that is not the case.</li><li>With growth deceleration likely to continue, this social media stock could continue to fall in price.</li></ul><p>It’s been a tough year for tech stocks. Especially social media stocks. Major names in the space have given a large chunk of their respective pandemic era gains. With <b>Snap</b>(NYSE:<b>SNAP</b>), the pullback has been even more severe. SNAP stock has given back all of its gains and has fallen back to price levels last seen in Spring 2020.</p><p>On the surface, it may seem like the market has overreacted. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Investors haven’t been irrational in sending the stock down 78% since January, and nearly 87% over the past two months.</p><p>Many factors are working against it at this moment. These factors will likely persist in the quarters ahead. With more disappointment ahead, the situation could get worse before it begins to get better. There’s a good chance shares could tank once again, like they’ve done several times since last October.</p><p><b>How SNAP Stock Fell Into the Market Graveyard</b></p><p>Macro headwinds have by all means played a role in Snap’s severe stock price decline. Rising interest rates, in response to high inflation, have resulted in lower valuation for tech/growth stocks (valued more heavily on future rather than present results).</p><p>Rising concern about a recession has also put pressure on tech stocks. In particular, tech stocks with advertising-based revenue models. However, the biggest factor behind the big drop in SNAP stock is the company’s own underwhelming operating performance in recent quarters.</p><p>This kicked off well before the stock market downturn began in late 2021. For instance, shares plunged back in October, following underwhelming revenue numbers and weak guidance for the preceding quarter. Tumbling further due to the late 2021/early 2022 selloffs, the stock did at one point appear primed for a rebound.</p><p>Beating estimates for the last quarter of 2021, at the time (February) it seemed as if Snap shares were finding a floor. But the selloff resumed by spring, following its Q1 2022 results, which fell short of expectations. This resumed selloff accelerated in May, as management began to prepare the market for its latest earnings release.</p><p><b>Why It Cratered Again Following the Latest Earnings Release</b></p><p>On May 24, following management’s release of a warning about its upcoming Q2 2022 earnings release, SNAP stock fell a staggering 43%. With such a big drop, many may have thought the negative impact of poor results was already priced-in ahead of the actual release of results on July 21.</p><p>Of course, this clearly wasn’t the case. Instead, Snap shares took another similarly-high dive, falling 39.1%, and back to pandemic lows, right after results hit the street. As mentioned, this “full trip” back may seem like a case of the market overdoing it a bit. Taking a closer look at the latest numbers, however, this big drop made sense.</p><p>While Daily Active User (or DAU) growth held steady on a sequential (quarter-over-quarter) basis, revenue growth fell considerably. In Q1 2022, the company reported a year-over-year (YoY) revenue growth of38%. This quarter, revenues were up only18%YoY.</p><p>Worse yet, the company chose not to provide Q3 guidance. Instead, CEO Evan Spiegel vaguely outlined plans to get Snap back into high-growth mode. Spiegel and his team may be earnestly trying to get things back on track, but the issues causing its current growth slump will be tough to overcome.</p><p><b>The Takeaway With SNAP Stock</b></p><p>As Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak noted in his post-earnings downgrade of the stock, two issues that played a role in its poor numbers for Q2 will continue to affect it in the quarters ahead.</p><p>The first is a weakening economy. Snap may have thought it could reduce the impact of <b>Apple’s</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AAPL</u></b>) iOS privacy changes with a pivot to branded ads on its platform, yet an economic slowdown could derail this strategy change.</p><p>The second, rising competition. Rival platform <b>TikTok</b> could grab an increasingly larger chunk of the ad dollars that would’ve otherwise made their way into Snap’s coffers.</p><p>As revenue growth continues to slow, fully moving out of the red remains murky as well. More disappointment, and lower prices for SNAP stock, likely lie ahead. A falling knife with a ways to go before bottoming out, it’s best to avoid.</p><p>SNAP stock earns an “F” rating in my <i>Portfolio Grader</i>.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Delete Snap Stock From Your Watchlist, Despite Drop to Pandemic Lows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDelete Snap Stock From Your Watchlist, Despite Drop to Pandemic Lows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-06 11:02 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/08/snap-stock-delete-from-watchlist-despite-drop-to-pandemic-lows/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pandemic-era high-flier,Snap(SNAP) has fallen back to price levels last seen in 2020.This may make it seem like a bargain at first glance, but its latest fiscal results signal that is not the case....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/snap-stock-delete-from-watchlist-despite-drop-to-pandemic-lows/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNAP":"Snap Inc"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/snap-stock-delete-from-watchlist-despite-drop-to-pandemic-lows/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156938348","content_text":"A pandemic-era high-flier,Snap(SNAP) has fallen back to price levels last seen in 2020.This may make it seem like a bargain at first glance, but its latest fiscal results signal that is not the case.With growth deceleration likely to continue, this social media stock could continue to fall in price.It’s been a tough year for tech stocks. Especially social media stocks. Major names in the space have given a large chunk of their respective pandemic era gains. With Snap(NYSE:SNAP), the pullback has been even more severe. SNAP stock has given back all of its gains and has fallen back to price levels last seen in Spring 2020.On the surface, it may seem like the market has overreacted. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Investors haven’t been irrational in sending the stock down 78% since January, and nearly 87% over the past two months.Many factors are working against it at this moment. These factors will likely persist in the quarters ahead. With more disappointment ahead, the situation could get worse before it begins to get better. There’s a good chance shares could tank once again, like they’ve done several times since last October.How SNAP Stock Fell Into the Market GraveyardMacro headwinds have by all means played a role in Snap’s severe stock price decline. Rising interest rates, in response to high inflation, have resulted in lower valuation for tech/growth stocks (valued more heavily on future rather than present results).Rising concern about a recession has also put pressure on tech stocks. In particular, tech stocks with advertising-based revenue models. However, the biggest factor behind the big drop in SNAP stock is the company’s own underwhelming operating performance in recent quarters.This kicked off well before the stock market downturn began in late 2021. For instance, shares plunged back in October, following underwhelming revenue numbers and weak guidance for the preceding quarter. Tumbling further due to the late 2021/early 2022 selloffs, the stock did at one point appear primed for a rebound.Beating estimates for the last quarter of 2021, at the time (February) it seemed as if Snap shares were finding a floor. But the selloff resumed by spring, following its Q1 2022 results, which fell short of expectations. This resumed selloff accelerated in May, as management began to prepare the market for its latest earnings release.Why It Cratered Again Following the Latest Earnings ReleaseOn May 24, following management’s release of a warning about its upcoming Q2 2022 earnings release, SNAP stock fell a staggering 43%. With such a big drop, many may have thought the negative impact of poor results was already priced-in ahead of the actual release of results on July 21.Of course, this clearly wasn’t the case. Instead, Snap shares took another similarly-high dive, falling 39.1%, and back to pandemic lows, right after results hit the street. As mentioned, this “full trip” back may seem like a case of the market overdoing it a bit. Taking a closer look at the latest numbers, however, this big drop made sense.While Daily Active User (or DAU) growth held steady on a sequential (quarter-over-quarter) basis, revenue growth fell considerably. In Q1 2022, the company reported a year-over-year (YoY) revenue growth of38%. This quarter, revenues were up only18%YoY.Worse yet, the company chose not to provide Q3 guidance. Instead, CEO Evan Spiegel vaguely outlined plans to get Snap back into high-growth mode. Spiegel and his team may be earnestly trying to get things back on track, but the issues causing its current growth slump will be tough to overcome.The Takeaway With SNAP StockAs Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak noted in his post-earnings downgrade of the stock, two issues that played a role in its poor numbers for Q2 will continue to affect it in the quarters ahead.The first is a weakening economy. Snap may have thought it could reduce the impact of Apple’s(NASDAQ:AAPL) iOS privacy changes with a pivot to branded ads on its platform, yet an economic slowdown could derail this strategy change.The second, rising competition. Rival platform TikTok could grab an increasingly larger chunk of the ad dollars that would’ve otherwise made their way into Snap’s coffers.As revenue growth continues to slow, fully moving out of the red remains murky as well. More disappointment, and lower prices for SNAP stock, likely lie ahead. A falling knife with a ways to go before bottoming out, it’s best to avoid.SNAP stock earns an “F” rating in my Portfolio Grader.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNAP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":686048298,"gmtCreate":1657936083017,"gmtModify":1704868716360,"author":{"id":"3507266227390625","authorId":"3507266227390625","name":"linhaifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0e88c8b063cf5c0d3ac617b2a2178a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507266227390625","authorIdStr":"3507266227390625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"押宝明年衰退","listText":"押宝明年衰退","text":"押宝明年衰退","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686048298","repostId":"1174033197","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174033197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657854563,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174033197?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-15 11:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股隔夜大逆转背后:前官员预测美联储“转向”时间!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174033197","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街“最懂美联储”的分析师:明年下半年不仅降息,还会提前结束缩表!","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者:叶桢</p><p>隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转,从深跌到收复大部分失地,纳指更是惊险收涨,而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。</p><p>周四,在强势的加息预期下,美股三大股指集体低开,一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹,标普最终收跌0.3%,道指收跌0.46%,纳指收涨0.03%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2deed31b461495ac0cd1a610806c8d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声,缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期,一定程度上助推了美股反弹,但很多市场一线交易员都认为真正导致隔夜美股大逆转的是美国银行顶级利率策略师、前纽约联储分析师Marc Cabana的一份报告,该报告认为,美联储将被迫比预期早得多地结束紧缩政策。</p><p>Cabana是美国银行全球研究的美国利率策略主管,在加入美银之前,他是纽约联储市场部的一名官员,在公开市场交易部门工作了近9年,并在金融危机期间密切参与了一系列资产购买/量化宽松计划的设计和实施。</p><p>Cabana对货币政策的预测准确率非常高,曾在美联储购买公司债的前几天就预测到了,这也使得他在华尔街享有很高的声望,他对美联储政策、利率和金融监管的看法总是能引起广泛关注和影响。</p><p>那么Cabana的最新报告究竟说了什么?</p><p>明年下半年,美联储不仅会降息,还会提前结束缩表</p><p>周四,在美银股票策略团队下调标普年终目标位从4500点到3600点后,Cabana团队发布了一份报告,<b>大幅向下修正美国利率预测,预计美联储明年下半年不仅会降息,还会提前结束缩表。</b></p><p>同一天,美银宏观团队下调美国经济预测以反映今年衰退,并且下调了美联储联邦基金利率路径,对于最终联邦基金利率预期从4.00-4.25%下调至3.25-3.50%,并且预期美联储将在明年9月23日至6月24日期间降息100个基点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfa16d6972770bc5deaa91c186de8f8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Cabana团队相应地下调了对美债收益率的预期,将2022年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.50%下调至2.75%,2023年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.25%下调至2.50%,并表示:</p><blockquote>鉴于对美联储在23年下半年和24年上半年降息的预期,我们的新预测相对市场隐含远期利率来说非常地乐观。我们之前的利率预测最初反映了相对远期利率的乐观倾向,但最新修正则更加乐观。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44553abdeabbffb36eb5602065c594bb\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20cc791e11d977c8134517896a90ecaf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>Cabana还预计美联储明年下半年将在缩表结束时降息:</p><blockquote>因为降息和缩表传递的是相互矛盾的政策信号,我们预计美联储降息同时将停止缩表,以简化政策沟通;美联储不太可能在通过降息来宽松的同时,采用缩表来紧缩。</blockquote><p>Cabana表示,实际上美联储在2019年就是这样做的,当时美联储在7月开始降息,并同时宣布停止缩表。当然美联储也有可能选择不遵循2019年的束策略,但Cabana认为这是不太可能的,他补充了一些理由:</p><blockquote>美联储只有在一段时间的通胀上升后才会将前端利率"正常化",美联储的资产负债表可能仍远未达到储备短缺的程度。我们看到了每个论点的逻辑,但相信很难在事前证明。我们预计美联储会选择最简单的沟通方式:在降息时停止缩表。</blockquote><p>Cabana接着指出,较早的结束缩表会对美债产生几个影响:</p><blockquote>由于金融系统中有更多现金/更少的抵押品,减少了短期美债贬值压力,由于融资需求降低,可能会有更多的息票减少,以及由于美联储重新开始购买和再投资而导致的二级市场混乱减少。每一种都将倾向于偏向美债收益率和担保隔夜融资利率的息差(UST-SOFR spreads) 在曲线上趋于更广。</blockquote><p>至于美联储的资产负债表会发生什么变化,Cabana表示:</p><blockquote>与我们之前的预测相比,美联储于2023年9月停止缩表将导致资产负债表较之前预测的2024年底结束的情况减少1万亿美元。缩表更早结束将导致减少7800亿美元的美债融资需求,外加美联储对美债的3500亿美元额外需求。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9f70fabfaae1c371e524a8d0a425c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股隔夜大逆转背后:前官员预测美联储“转向”时间!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-15 11:09 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者:叶桢隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转,从深跌到收复大部分失地,纳指更是惊险收涨,而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。周四,在强势的加息预期下,美股三大股指集体低开,一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹,标普最终收跌0.3%,道指收跌0.46%,纳指收涨0.03%。日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声,缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期,一定程度上助推了美股反弹,但很多市场一线交易员都...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1174033197","content_text":"作者:叶桢隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转,从深跌到收复大部分失地,纳指更是惊险收涨,而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。周四,在强势的加息预期下,美股三大股指集体低开,一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹,标普最终收跌0.3%,道指收跌0.46%,纳指收涨0.03%。日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声,缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期,一定程度上助推了美股反弹,但很多市场一线交易员都认为真正导致隔夜美股大逆转的是美国银行顶级利率策略师、前纽约联储分析师Marc Cabana的一份报告,该报告认为,美联储将被迫比预期早得多地结束紧缩政策。Cabana是美国银行全球研究的美国利率策略主管,在加入美银之前,他是纽约联储市场部的一名官员,在公开市场交易部门工作了近9年,并在金融危机期间密切参与了一系列资产购买/量化宽松计划的设计和实施。Cabana对货币政策的预测准确率非常高,曾在美联储购买公司债的前几天就预测到了,这也使得他在华尔街享有很高的声望,他对美联储政策、利率和金融监管的看法总是能引起广泛关注和影响。那么Cabana的最新报告究竟说了什么?明年下半年,美联储不仅会降息,还会提前结束缩表周四,在美银股票策略团队下调标普年终目标位从4500点到3600点后,Cabana团队发布了一份报告,大幅向下修正美国利率预测,预计美联储明年下半年不仅会降息,还会提前结束缩表。同一天,美银宏观团队下调美国经济预测以反映今年衰退,并且下调了美联储联邦基金利率路径,对于最终联邦基金利率预期从4.00-4.25%下调至3.25-3.50%,并且预期美联储将在明年9月23日至6月24日期间降息100个基点。Cabana团队相应地下调了对美债收益率的预期,将2022年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.50%下调至2.75%,2023年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.25%下调至2.50%,并表示:鉴于对美联储在23年下半年和24年上半年降息的预期,我们的新预测相对市场隐含远期利率来说非常地乐观。我们之前的利率预测最初反映了相对远期利率的乐观倾向,但最新修正则更加乐观。Cabana还预计美联储明年下半年将在缩表结束时降息:因为降息和缩表传递的是相互矛盾的政策信号,我们预计美联储降息同时将停止缩表,以简化政策沟通;美联储不太可能在通过降息来宽松的同时,采用缩表来紧缩。Cabana表示,实际上美联储在2019年就是这样做的,当时美联储在7月开始降息,并同时宣布停止缩表。当然美联储也有可能选择不遵循2019年的束策略,但Cabana认为这是不太可能的,他补充了一些理由:美联储只有在一段时间的通胀上升后才会将前端利率\"正常化\",美联储的资产负债表可能仍远未达到储备短缺的程度。我们看到了每个论点的逻辑,但相信很难在事前证明。我们预计美联储会选择最简单的沟通方式:在降息时停止缩表。Cabana接着指出,较早的结束缩表会对美债产生几个影响:由于金融系统中有更多现金/更少的抵押品,减少了短期美债贬值压力,由于融资需求降低,可能会有更多的息票减少,以及由于美联储重新开始购买和再投资而导致的二级市场混乱减少。每一种都将倾向于偏向美债收益率和担保隔夜融资利率的息差(UST-SOFR spreads) 在曲线上趋于更广。至于美联储的资产负债表会发生什么变化,Cabana表示:与我们之前的预测相比,美联储于2023年9月停止缩表将导致资产负债表较之前预测的2024年底结束的情况减少1万亿美元。缩表更早结束将导致减少7800亿美元的美债融资需求,外加美联储对美债的3500亿美元额外需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}