Initial Report Part 11: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)
Response Kaspi.kz replied shortly on the same day after the report with a statement: "In our view, the report is misleading, inaccurate and misrepresents our business. Being the first company from Kazakhstan to successfully list on Nasdaq has obviously raised our profile amongst short sellers. For those investors who have known us over the years, our reputation speaks for itself." They later released a more detailed explanation about the arguments brought by Culpers: The company emphasized that 99.6% of its 2023 revenue was generated in Kazakhstan, with the remainder coming from operations in Azerbaijan and Ukraine. This information is clearly disclosed in their US IPO prospectus and 20F filings. The company operates under strict regulatory supervision, implementing comprehensive policies
Initial Report Part 8: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)
Moat and Competitive Advantage Network Effects Across segments The largest moat that Kaspi.kz has is the network effects of its super app. Source: Kaspi Kaspi’s payment, marketplace, and finance platforms are highly interrelated. The growth and development of one platform naturally support and accelerate the growth of the others, reinforcing a virtuous cycle. For example, a consumer using Kaspi for managing finances can seamlessly browse the Marketplace for products. Once a purchase decision is made, the user can easily complete the transaction through Kaspi’s integrated payment system, given that their financial information is already stored in the app. The interactions between Kaspi's various platforms create a self-reinforcing flywheel that drives profitable growth and provides signific
Initial Report Part 6: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)
Currency The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) heavily manages the Kazakh tenge, but the currency remains vulnerable to frequent devaluations during risky external conditions. The last major devaluation occurred in 2015 when the NBK abandoned its USD peg due to historically low oil prices, which depleted the Bank's foreign exchange reserves. Source: JP Morgan While the risk of such an event is currently low, given the tailwinds oil prices are experiencing from the Middle East geopolitical crisis, the country's rising import needs amid an infrastructure construction boom and robust demand are expected to keep the current account in deficit over the coming years, placing depreciatory pressures on the tenge. Analysts forecast the Kazakh tenge to trade within the range of KZT430-450 per USD ov
Initial Report Part 5: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)
Foreign Policy Dynamics and Regional Position Kazakhstan's geopolitical landscape is undergoing significant changes, shaped by its historical ties to Russia, strategic location, and evolving multi-vector foreign policy. The country currently finds itself in a delicate position, balancing its dependence on Russia with the need to diversify its economic and diplomatic relationships. At present, Kazakhstan's energy sector remains heavily reliant on Russia. Approximately 90% of its oil exports flow through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which traverses Russian territory and is partially owned by Moscow. This dependency has been highlighted by past pipeline interruptions, which have demonstrated Kazakhstan's vulnerability. A potential shutdown of this crucial export route could jeopardi
Initial Report Part 3: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)
5.Advertising services - advertising campaigns on the platforms, which may display ads on the Kaspi.kz Super App to users through product searches, suggested products and banner ads. Two forms of ads - product ads and brand ads Product ads Brand ads Source: Kaspi Q2 2024 Report Promotional periods such as Kaspi Juma, a 3 day national shopping festival (Kaspi's version of 9.9 / 10.10 / 11.11 in the context of Shopee or USA's Black Friday or China's Single Day) Kaspi Juma usually takes place twice a year, in the summer and the autumn, and allows consumers to purchase any goods from participating merchants via a buy-now-pay-later consumer finance product with interest-free instalments for up to 24 months. This will be changed to thrice a year from 2024 onwards to cater to the diff
Initial Report Part 2: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)
Fintech Platform Kaspi˖s Fintech segment is its consumer lending and deposit businesses. The platform enables consumers to access instantly and seamlessly, primarily through Kaspi.kz Super App, the Company’s digital finance products, including consumer finance and deposit. Fintech is Kaspi˖s largest, but slowest growing and least profitable (from a margin perspective) operating segment, accounting for 54% of revenue and 35% of net income, in 20˖23. It is notable that Kaspi originates 100% of loans from its own balance sheet (vs 2% for Ant/Alipay). Kaspi's fintech platform has shown impressive growth, particularly in its Total Finance Volume (TFV), which serves as a key indicator of the platform's financial services adoption and usage. The TFV has exhibited strong year-over-year growth at 3
ESG Consideration Water scarcity is a critical long-term theme in sustainability and ESG investing. As severe weather and rising demand increase pressure on water resources, efficient systems and water reuse become essential. The global water treatment market, valued at $303 billion in 2022, is expected to grow at a 7% CAGR, driven by the need for sustainable solutions. Water is crucial for public health and economic development, and its importance is recognized through strict regulation and a stable market. When stock picking Pentair, its focus on water treatment and sustainability is a key strength. Pentair’s products align with growing demand for efficient water management, positioning it well within the expanding market. This makes Pentair a strong candidate for investors prioritizing
Linkedin: Xin Fei Tan Company Overview: Move, Improve & Enjoy Water Pentair is a leading company specializing in water management technologies and solutions. Their core focus areas include water filtration, flow control, and related water management systems for various sectors including residential, commercial, and industrial markets.The company operates through three main business segments: Pool Water Solutions Industrial & Flow Technologies Pentair's Business Segments Pentair's Segment Breakdown Pentair's Revenue Breakdown With a global presence spanning 24 countries, Pentair maintains 135 locations and employs approximately 11,000 people. Their diverse product portfolio is designed to address critical water-related challenges, including: Providing access to clean, safe water Red
6.Risks and Mitigation • Intensifying Competition in the Streaming Market The streaming industry has become increasingly saturated, with formidable competitors such as Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max, and Apple TV+ rapidly expanding their content libraries and global reach. These players not only provide alternative streaming options but also have access to vast resources, enabling them to produce high-budget original content and secure exclusive licensing deals. The rise of free, ad-supported streaming services (FAST) is also adding pressure on subscription-based models like Netflix. Netflix maintains its competitive edge through continued investments in original programming and personalization technology. It spent over $17 billion in 2023 on content production, ensuring a stead
1. Company Overview Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is a global streaming entertainment service offering a wide variety of TV series, documentaries, and feature films across a range of genres and languages. Founded in 1997 and headquartered in Los Gatos, California, Netflix has grown from a DVD rental service to a dominant player in the streaming industry, serving over 230 million subscribers worldwide. The company's mission is to entertain the world by providing on-demand, commercial-free streaming experiences. 2.Business Segments In 2023, Netflix's total revenue was $33.7 billion. The company's revenue is primarily derived from two business segments: streaming and DVD rentals. The streaming segment, which includes both domestic and international streaming, accounted for 99% of t