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道琼斯指数
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iPhone 8
道琼斯指数
纳斯达克综合指数
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iPhone 8
纳斯达克综合指数
标普500指数
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iPhone 8
标普500指数
恒生指数
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iPhone 8
恒生指数
富时新加坡海峡指数
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iPhone 8
富时新加坡海峡指数
标普/澳交所200指数
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iPhone 8
标普/澳交所200指数
1.43万
走马财经
·
2025-07-16
穿过2.5亿订单的你的手
7月12日这个周六,中国即时零售行业单量再创历史新高,根据美团官方公众号13日消息: 截止7月12日23点36分,美团即时零售订单量超过1.5亿。其中拼好饭单量超3500万,神抢手单量超5000万。 7月14日,淘宝官方公众号也发布最新消息: 7月12日的周末,淘宝闪购(含饿了么)单量再次突破8000万新高。 这意味着,光是美团、淘宝两家头部平台,上周六的即时零售单量就超过了2.3亿,预计整个行业即时零售单量峰值已经来到2.5亿(或更多)。 单日破2.5亿单,不仅仅是中国即时零售行业新的里程碑,也是这个星球的巅峰。 相信我,全世界只有中国点外卖是日常,其他任何国家,包括发展中国家,都是中产以上才敢随便做的事情。 无形的手 7月12日这一天,数亿人涌入美团、淘宝等平台,用双手创造了这个奇迹。 超千万商家,几千万奶茶、咖啡师、厨师,用双手促成了这场盛宴。 近千万骑手,用双脚、电动车丈量全国960多万平方公里的土地,跋山涉水、穿越城市和街巷,用双手一单一单地完成了这项盛举。 当然,背后还有数以十万计的程序员、运营工作者提前策划、筹备,保障系统有效运行。 如果这不算商业史奇观,什么才算呢。 新时代的清明上河图,在互联网的指间上演。 这些无数双手,共同构筑了看不见的市场的手。 1776年,英国古典经济学家亚当・斯密在《国富论》中说过,市场经济有两只手,一只是无形的市场之手,一只是有形的政府之手。 外卖平台通过市场的无形之手,调配社会资源,充分实现了市场竞争。 它的结果是: 单量创历史新高,消费者得到了更多实惠,商家实现了生意增量,骑手创造了更多收入。 美团和淘宝官方公众号里描述: 这段时间,骑手的人均日单量增长了33%,单日收入增长了111%;餐饮商家们在美团上订单量比日常时段增长65%。 它充分显示了,无形之手在市场资源调配中的基础性作用。 图片 当然,这不是没有代价的
穿过2.5亿订单的你的手
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Gentle麦克斯
·
2025-07-16
被东大卡脖子以后,老美现在是发了狠要把自家唯一一家上规模的稀土公司
$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$
扶上马。前几天国防部4亿美金入股,昨天传苹果讲5亿美金入股。不过单季度6000万美元的营收,实力还是太弱了,
$北方稀土(600111)$
一季度营收92亿RMB。不过美股稀土股在题材炒作上空间更大,有差距才有想象。[笑哭]
被东大卡脖子以后,老美现在是发了狠要把自家唯一一家上规模的稀土公司$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ 扶上马。前几天国防部4亿美金入股,昨天...
# 苹果押注!MP再拉20%,还能上车吗?
精彩
Inmoretion:
短期炒作情绪是比较大
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Mcrowe
·
2025-07-15
$CRWV 20250718 135.0 CALL$
吃到了!!!走了
$CRWV 20250718 135.0 CALL$ 吃到了!!!走了
# 晒晒更赚钱
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KK不是猫
·
2025-07-15
$蔚来(NIO)$
白瞎了 卖了4的备兑 [捂脸]
$蔚来(NIO)$ 白瞎了 卖了4的备兑 [捂脸]
# 晒晒更赚钱
精彩
只买信仰股:
不要瞎操作 就买正股 拿几年
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会飞的小虎
·
2025-07-15
$NVDA 20250718 167.5 CALL$
昨天买的,就冲老黄北京行发布的消息,可惜买少了。
$NVDA 20250718 167.5 CALL$ 昨天买的,就冲老黄北京行发布的消息,可惜买少了。
# 晒晒更赚钱
精彩
顺风车二手:
小米AMD还有台积电期权让我1600变160000
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约德尔牛
·
2025-07-15
$SharpLink Gaming(SBET)$
最近一直在ATM,考虑出掉点了
$SharpLink Gaming(SBET)$ 最近一直在ATM,考虑出掉点了
# 晒晒更赚钱
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别买期权
·
2025-07-16
$AMD 20250801 160.0 CALL$
提前卖出一张call单 摊成本而已别太惊讶
$AMD 20250801 160.0 CALL$ 提前卖出一张call单 摊成本而已别太惊讶
# 晒晒更赚钱
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美股投资网
·
2025-07-16
AMD这波期权真的太好赚了! 5x倍!
美股盘前,据美股投资网了解到,美国6月核心CPI连续5个月低于预期。数据温和提振市场,标普500指数高开26.73点,涨幅0.43%;纳指高开182.43点,涨幅0.88%,道指跌0.01%。美股早盘,
$英伟达(NVDA)$
宣布将重新向中国市场销售H20芯片的消息提振了科技股,英伟达股价上涨超过4%,AMD也上涨超过5%。与此同时,热门中概股表现强劲,阿里巴巴涨幅超过6%。此外,苹果公司宣布投资5亿美元于美国唯一的稀土商MP,股价大涨超过20%。尽管早盘的温和通胀数据曾一度推动美股走高,标普500指数短暂突破6300点,创下历史新高,但午盘时段市场情绪出现转变,部分关税相关风险仍对市场情绪产生影响。尽管6月的CPI数据相对较好,关税影响尚未完全显现,美股投资网分析认为这一因素可能依然对市场产生制约作用。截至收盘,道指跌幅为0.98%;纳指涨幅为0.18%;标普500跌幅为0.40%。AMD政策反转引爆涨势今天
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
大涨8.21%。此次上涨的核心驱动力源于一则关键信息:AMD方面披露,美国商务部已通知公司,针对其MI308芯片对华出口的许可证申请将进入审查阶段。这意味着,一旦最终获批,AMD将恢复向中国市场出口其MI308芯片。这一进展无疑标志着此前相关政策的重大逆转。AMD曾在今年4月公开表示,受MI308芯片出口限制的影响,公司预计将损失约8亿美元的收入。政策的松动,为AMD在AI芯片领域的市场拓展打开了新的战略空间和营收增长点,其潜在价值不容小觑。在这一关键的市场转折点上,美股投资网的深度洞察与前瞻性布局,再次得到印证!早在3周前,我们美股投资网就公开发视频,提醒大家128美元买入 AM
AMD这波期权真的太好赚了! 5x倍!
# 英伟达$170保卫战!这次多少价位加仓?
精彩
会飞的小虎:
我前天晚上买的英伟达0718call167.5,就是因为老黄北京行买的,昨晚赚了近四倍。
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美股解毒师
·
2025-07-16
MP Materials是下一个Palantir吗?
摘要
$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$
已成为美国稀土产业链“去中国化”战略的核心企业。五角大楼入股、苹果合作等事件标志其已脱离纯商业公司范畴,转向具备“战略资产”属性。公司当前正加速推进垂直一体化:从山谷矿产开采到磁材制造,涵盖轻重稀土全链条;10X德州工厂+加州回收设施已初具规模。估值上看,公司PS已大幅提升:股价一度突破60美元,以过去12个月的PS来算以超44倍,甚至远超SaaS和AI行业龙头水平。估值反映了市场对其作为稀缺性溢价,全市场能有如此溢价的公司不多,
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
是一家。当前市场流动性良好,交易活跃度高,受散户和机构双重关注。政策与关税变化对其构成重大利好,尤其拜登政府新一轮对华关税和国防法案中的稀土采购条款,为其市场保障护航。MP Materials已从“资源型出口商”转型为“美国稀土工业再崛起”的核心执行者。尽管仍有重稀土产能爬坡和高估值风险,但其政策地位和合作深度,使其具备长期战略价值。五角大楼与苹果公司入股7月初,美国国防部宣布对MP Materials进行总额高达5.5亿美元的战略投资,其中包括4亿美元的优先股投资与1.5亿美元的低息贷款,并为其核心稀土产品NdPr磁体提供为期十年的最低采购价格保障协议。同时,
$苹果(AAPL)$
公司也与MP签署了约5亿美元的长期合作协议,将采购其在美国制造的稀土永磁体,用于iPhone和AirPods等产品线。从国家安全的角度看,美国军用雷达、导弹和F-35战机所依赖的磁体必须逐步摆脱对海外稀土的依赖
MP Materials是下一个Palantir吗?
# 苹果押注!MP再拉20%,还能上车吗?
精彩
暮烟风雨:
老美比谁都知道稀土的重要性,国防部+苹果入场,这顶级政商阵容,现在价格才是半山腰而已。其它商业巨头也陆续有入场消息,过几个月回头看,50元真香
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丁有鱼
·
2025-07-15
马校长急一急挺好的,现在年轻人已经不热衷逛淘宝了,这次和美团外卖大战的初始逻辑就是点击量争夺。没人逛淘宝了对吧,那我有外卖这个高频消费服务,你来不来。 前传故事也很清晰,京东3月份入场外卖,6月份干到了最高日均2500万单,原本有市场70%份额的美团坐不住了。美团当然也知道即时零售也不算是一个好市场,但之前忍不住啊,还是与阿里巴巴展开了争夺,那阿里也正好借此机会师出有名。 校长一句砸500亿+亲自督战,淘宝闪购预计这几个月都是强战备状态了,目标是拿下一半市场。而与此相联系的淘宝首页界面,相信还会改版,相信我,不会只多一个闪购频道。连环拳,肯定会是连环拳。 奶茶店、外卖店等肯定是希望补贴扩大化的,毕竟单量几何增加,如果此刻谁不给到实实在在的补贴,存在合作商家咱们关闭合作的可能。骑手当然也是希望继续下去,很多骑手都没有享受过一天1000元+的收入待遇了,但上周六出现了很多。美团兴哥是不得不应战的局面,一年净利润才500亿,人家上来就推500亿筹码,你跟不跟?梭哈吗?答案是非继续不可。反正边打边看呗,又不是一天花500亿。 此刻的东哥,也是无语的很啊。感情哥们我打了个样,轮到阿里出牌,校长直接推了…要不咱喊行业协会叫停一下补贴大战?毕竟有序竞争才是市场的健康状态,我这点份额才能保住。 你的对手想打,你的骑手想打,你的商家想打,你的客户想打,连几家上市奶茶企业也想打,人家市值这几天不也上去了么。只有谁不想打?谁没补贴谁不想打呗,心疼京东三秒钟。今天看新闻,地方行业协会出来呼吁停战了…不是没有人能劝住,但肯定不会是行业协会吧。 好在阿里和美团两家股价算是暂时打上去了,TMT行业重大特征之一就是热度和市值强相关,加之阿里巴巴和美团的app点击量蹭蹭往上走,各方的一线部队暂时也好交差了。 周六抢了奶茶,周一今年第四次购买阿里巴巴,就这样吧,本周六继续抢奶茶,一家一杯起,绝不厚此薄彼。
马校长急一急挺好的,现在年轻人已经不热衷逛淘宝了,这次和美团外卖大战的初始逻辑就是点击量争夺。没人逛淘宝了对吧,那我有外卖这个高频消费服务,你来不来。 前...
精彩
时空下流浪:
这波补贴战,最终真能稳定市场吗?
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月月有 余老虎
·
2025-07-16
$Wolfspeed Inc.(WOLF)$
还能回本吗?我想翻几倍呢!有什么好办法可以补救呢?请教一下前辈[抱拳]
$Wolfspeed Inc.(WOLF)$ 还能回本吗?我想翻几倍呢!有什么好办法可以补救呢?请教一下前辈[抱拳]
# 晒晒更赚钱
精彩
ibmxm:
都这样了,就当全没了,忘了它吧。说不定哪天又涨回来了
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千倍之路
·
2025-07-16
$NVDA 20250718 165.0 CALL$
周一买入2.10,周二卖出6.78,盈利222%
$NVDA 20250718 165.0 CALL$ 周一买入2.10,周二卖出6.78,盈利222%
# 晒晒更赚钱
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小贝导演
·
2025-07-16
$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$
底舱也出了,110以下再接回来
$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$ 底舱也出了,110以下再接回来
# 晒晒更赚钱
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人生舵手__小琳:
节奏踩得稳稳的
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流动的时光BXY
·
2025-07-16
$英伟达(NVDA)$
晒一下长期持有的价值[龇牙] ,只是持股比较少,不是富豪们动辄成千上万股的级别。 目标180就清仓走人了。
$英伟达(NVDA)$ 晒一下长期持有的价值[龇牙] ,只是持股比较少,不是富豪们动辄成千上万股的级别。 目标180就清仓走人了。
# 晒晒更赚钱
精彩
幸福肥哈哈哈:
96的成本竟然想清仓走人,我要是96的成本能一直拿十年
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Buy_Sell
·
2025-07-16
🎁【7月16日】英伟达势如破竹,再涨超4%!这波行情你抓住了吗?
美股收盘:三大指数涨跌不一,纳指续刷历史新高!英伟达涨超4%再创新高,中概指数大涨2.76%美股三大指数收盘涨跌互现,纳指涨0.18%刷新收盘新高;截至收盘,标普500指数收跌0.4%,报6243.76点;纳斯达克综合指数涨0.18%,报20677.8点;道琼斯工业平均指数跌0.98%,报44023.29点。【热门股表现】大型科技股多数上涨,
英伟达
收涨4.04%,历史上首次收于170美元上方,收盘市值4.17万亿美元;
微软
涨0.56%,
亚马逊
、
谷歌A
、
苹果
涨0.29%,Meta Platforms则收跌1.46%,
特斯拉
跌1.93%。芯片股普涨,
超微电脑
涨近7%,AMD收涨6.41%,
台积电
涨3.62%创历史新高,
阿斯麦
涨超2%;银行股多数下跌,
贝莱德
、
富国银行
跌超5%,
🎁【7月16日】英伟达势如破竹,再涨超4%!这波行情你抓住了吗?
# 今天什么值得买?晒晒你的交易计划!
精彩
AliceSam:
由中国孕育并开源共享的DeepSeek、Alibaba、Tencent Hunyuan、MiniMax、Baidu Ernie Bot等世界级大模型,正在推动全球AI快速发展。
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格雷期权
·
2025-07-16
【期权比较】SPX 和 SPY 期权有啥区别?哪个更适合你?
如果你做过美股期权,特别是围绕标普500指数的交易,你一定见过这两种代码: SPX —— 标普500指数的现金结算期权 SPY —— 标普500 ETF(指数基金)的实物交割期权 看起来它们追踪的都是一样的标的,但实际上,两者在交易机制、成本、税务、流动性等方面差别非常大。 那问题来了: 普通投资者到底应该交易 SPX,还是 SPY?你适合哪一个? 这篇文章,我们就用最清晰直白的方式,帮你一次性搞清楚! 一、SPX 和 SPY:核心区别快速看 二、SPX 的优势:专业、稳重、税务优化 ✅ 1. 现金结算,省去交割麻烦 SPX 是现金结算,也就是说: 到期后,不管你是买方还是卖方,都是以点位差额来结算; 不会实际持有或交付股票,也不会意外触发强平或借券风险。 特别适合喜欢做 Iron Condor、Butterfly 等组合策略的人,管理起来更方便。 ✅ 2. 欧洲式行权,更安全 SPX 是欧洲式行权,意味着你只会在到期当天被行权。 相比 SPY 的美式行权(随时可能触发),你不用担心提前被行权带来的资金管理难题,比如: 卖出 Covered Call 被提前行权; 卖 Put 被突然指派买股。 这让 SPX 更加可控,尤其适合卖方策略者。 ✅ 3. 税务优势(适用于美国税收居民) SPX 属于 IRS 的 Section 1256 产品,在美国税法下: 60% 收益按长期税率(通常较低) 40% 收益按短期税率 这对高收入投资者来说,税后收益提升明显。 ⚠️ 注:这个优势只适用于美国本地投资者或美籍身份用户,非美籍投资者无差别。 三、SPY 的优势:更灵活、门槛更低 ✅ 1. 实物交割更直观,适合配合股票策略 如果你持有 SPY 股票,可以搭配 SPY 期权做 Covered Call、Protective Put 等策略。 而 SPX 是纯现金结算,不能用于与现货ETF组
【期权比较】SPX 和 SPY 期权有啥区别?哪个更适合你?
# 聊聊我的期权交易心得
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卖方笔记
·
2025-07-16
英伟达还能追涨吗?
胜率83%的追涨策略了解一下~英伟达的中国市场进展:英伟达在发布的博客文章中表示,美国政府可能很快会批准其向中国销售H20 GPU芯片的许可证。尽管目前还未正式获批,但公司对此表示乐观。7月15日消息发布后股价最高上涨5%,达到172.53。英伟达业务能恢复多少增长:此前,美国对华芯片禁令让英伟达Q2季度损失约80亿美元的收入。如果禁令放宽,英伟达有望在今年下半年挽回部分损失。研报估算,每增加100亿美元的中国收入,英伟达的每股收益将增加约0.25美元。一季度非GAAP每股收益为0.81美元,剔除H20相关费用和关税影响后每股收益为0.96美元。目前的共识是整体业务能获得10%左右的增长。如何评价禁令开放预期:此事预示贸易关系缓和;许可尚未公布,不一定与H20许可相同;H20性能已低于替代品****Ascend **,如图;许可芯片的竞争力有待验证,关系到整体业务增长能否达到10%;股价上涨上涨5%证明市场认可获得许可能为公司业务带来新增长。交易策略:如果持有英伟达正股,担心股价在高位盘整,可以选择卖出价外看涨期权获得此阶段收益;想追涨英伟达股票,但害怕高位被套,可以选择卖出价外看跌期权。行权价到期日选择参考:卖出看涨期权:
$NVDA 20250725 180.0 CALL$
(胜率90%)卖出看跌期权:
$NVDA 20250718 165.0 PUT$
(胜率83%)#想要了解更多卖方机会的朋友,可点击app最下方“行情”,选择股票页面里的期权,点击期权笔笔易筛选更多热门卖方机会。也可直接点击跳转:
英伟达还能追涨吗?
# 期权Q&A:期权知识,你问我答
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暮烟风雨:
黄仁勋到中国演讲推销H20收获巨大哦,股价再创历史辉煌
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期权小班长
·
2025-07-15
空头大单看跌特斯拉财报:300以下
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
特斯拉财报大概率没什么意思,数据很差,二季度交付量同比下降大约14%,AI就算画大饼短期也无法变成营收和利润。稳妥做空方法就是sell call,我卖了下周到期350的call
$TSLA 20250725 350.0 CALL$
。但是想进一步看跌,又不想多花钱,可以考虑这位大空头的零成本看跌策略,没有iv crush的烦恼,特斯拉股价310以下0成本看跌:买入1份400call,卖出1份300call,买入2份250put:买
$TSLA 20260116 250.0 PUT$
x2卖
$TSLA 20260116 300.0 CALL$
买
$TSLA 20260116 400.0 CALL$
这位空头非常鸡贼,没用大单交易,交易的零零碎碎,但期权开仓还是出卖了他。根据估算他大概率是买了6000手400call,卖出6000手300call,然后买入12000手250put。可能有人问
$TSLA 202601
空头大单看跌特斯拉财报:300以下
# 期权Q&A:期权知识,你问我答
精彩
秘密你:
特斯拉的股价还是有点不够争气啊;似乎每次在350附近卖出后不久都能在300附近捡回。华尔街特斯拉操盘手应该换人!
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三思期权
·
2025-07-15
美元跌了那么多,下半年能反转吗?
年初的时候写过几篇文章宣传美国例外论破产可能导致的弱势美元。今年上半年,美元指数录得自1973年以来最差的半年表现,下跌了11.3%。 弱势美元的持续也点燃了许多连带交易,譬如做多新兴市场股票和一些对美元汇率敏感的大宗商品。 然而,美元这种持续快速下行的局面能否持续是一个值得思考的问题,上期文章从资金流向的角度,认为美元至少在短期内或已见底(当时基于资金流角度在短期内一同看好的还有包括美股在内的全球风险资产,以及美债虽有长期压力,但近期不再适合做空)。 图:根据美银的统计,今年上半年美元的跌幅很不寻常 特别是目前我们仍然不能确定美元的技术层面完成了向下突破。下图中美元长期月线图虽然轻微的跌破了从2011年以来上行线,但是仍然需要一到两根月线来确认六月月线这一向下突破是否是“假信号”。只有真的确认跌破,才能预期美元将重演2002-2007年的弱势走法,否则2011年以来的长支撑线还不能轻易看破。 图:美元长周期技术走势到了十字路口,是支撑线反弹还是向下突破? 鉴于弱美元交易走到了真正的技术面十字路口并且是许多交易的逻辑起点(比如多EM股票),本期我们梳理下美元空方和多方的理由,看一下市场上支持全年弱美元和支持美元将可能反弹的视角各自的道理都是什么,以便后期慢慢证实或证伪这些逻辑。 首先来看支持美元下半年还将继续下跌的理由,看逻辑是否站得住脚、亦或是时间窗口是否吻合(即长期看空也可能短期反弹) 第一点,依然是我们在此前系列文章中反复强调的:由于美国在国际贸易和金融体系中的主导地位,其经常账户长期处于赤字,而资本账户则维持长期净流入,这种结构性特征已延续数十年(但持续很久的一件事物往往惯性都能维持很长时间,餐饮界有个说法:一个持续百年的老字号很可能还能开一百年,而一个刚开业一个月的新手店很可能下个月就要关门歇业)。 正是这一结构,使得全球范围内持续存在对美元资产的配置需求,从而支
美元跌了那么多,下半年能反转吗?
# 【讨论】特朗普亲赴美联储!鲍威尔要下台了?
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超千万商家,几千万奶茶、咖啡师、厨师,用双手促成了这场盛宴。 近千万骑手,用双脚、电动车丈量全国960多万平方公里的土地,跋山涉水、穿越城市和街巷,用双手一单一单地完成了这项盛举。 当然,背后还有数以十万计的程序员、运营工作者提前策划、筹备,保障系统有效运行。 如果这不算商业史奇观,什么才算呢。 新时代的清明上河图,在互联网的指间上演。 这些无数双手,共同构筑了看不见的市场的手。 1776年,英国古典经济学家亚当・斯密在《国富论》中说过,市场经济有两只手,一只是无形的市场之手,一只是有形的政府之手。 外卖平台通过市场的无形之手,调配社会资源,充分实现了市场竞争。 它的结果是: 单量创历史新高,消费者得到了更多实惠,商家实现了生意增量,骑手创造了更多收入。 美团和淘宝官方公众号里描述: 这段时间,骑手的人均日单量增长了33%,单日收入增长了111%;餐饮商家们在美团上订单量比日常时段增长65%。 它充分显示了,无形之手在市场资源调配中的基础性作用。 图片 当然,这不是没有代价的","plainDigest":"7月12日这个周六,中国即时零售行业单量再创历史新高,根据美团官方公众号13日消息: 截止7月12日23点36分,美团即时零售订单量超过1.5亿。其中拼好饭单量超3500万,神抢手单量超5000万。 7月14日,淘宝官方公众号也发布最新消息: 7月12日的周末,淘宝闪购(含饿了么)单量再次突破8000万新高。 这意味着,光是美团、淘宝两家头部平台,上周六的即时零售单量就超过了2.3亿,预计整个行业即时零售单量峰值已经来到2.5亿(或更多)。 单日破2.5亿单,不仅仅是中国即时零售行业新的里程碑,也是这个星球的巅峰。 相信我,全世界只有中国点外卖是日常,其他任何国家,包括发展中国家,都是中产以上才敢随便做的事情。 无形的手 7月12日这一天,数亿人涌入美团、淘宝等平台,用双手创造了这个奇迹。 超千万商家,几千万奶茶、咖啡师、厨师,用双手促成了这场盛宴。 近千万骑手,用双脚、电动车丈量全国960多万平方公里的土地,跋山涉水、穿越城市和街巷,用双手一单一单地完成了这项盛举。 当然,背后还有数以十万计的程序员、运营工作者提前策划、筹备,保障系统有效运行。 如果这不算商业史奇观,什么才算呢。 新时代的清明上河图,在互联网的指间上演。 这些无数双手,共同构筑了看不见的市场的手。 1776年,英国古典经济学家亚当・斯密在《国富论》中说过,市场经济有两只手,一只是无形的市场之手,一只是有形的政府之手。 外卖平台通过市场的无形之手,调配社会资源,充分实现了市场竞争。 它的结果是: 单量创历史新高,消费者得到了更多实惠,商家实现了生意增量,骑手创造了更多收入。 美团和淘宝官方公众号里描述: 这段时间,骑手的人均日单量增长了33%,单日收入增长了111%;餐饮商家们在美团上订单量比日常时段增长65%。 它充分显示了,无形之手在市场资源调配中的基础性作用。 图片 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下季度指引其实非常弱 目前仍然是希望很美好 现实较残酷的阶段","plainContent":"泼个冷水 下季度指引其实非常弱 目前仍然是希望很美好 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crush的烦恼,特斯拉股价310以下0成本看跌:买入1份400call,卖出1份300call,买入2份250put:买 $TSLA 20260116 250.0 PUT$ x2卖 $TSLA 20260116 300.0 CALL$ 买 $TSLA 20260116 400.0 CALL$ 这位空头非常鸡贼,没用大单交易,交易的零零碎碎,但期权开仓还是出卖了他。根据估算他大概率是买了6000手400call,卖出6000手300call,然后买入12000手250put。可能有人问$TSLA 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特别是目前我们仍然不能确定美元的技术层面完成了向下突破。下图中美元长期月线图虽然轻微的跌破了从2011年以来上行线,但是仍然需要一到两根月线来确认六月月线这一向下突破是否是“假信号”。只有真的确认跌破,才能预期美元将重演2002-2007年的弱势走法,否则2011年以来的长支撑线还不能轻易看破。 图:美元长周期技术走势到了十字路口,是支撑线反弹还是向下突破? 鉴于弱美元交易走到了真正的技术面十字路口并且是许多交易的逻辑起点(比如多EM股票),本期我们梳理下美元空方和多方的理由,看一下市场上支持全年弱美元和支持美元将可能反弹的视角各自的道理都是什么,以便后期慢慢证实或证伪这些逻辑。 首先来看支持美元下半年还将继续下跌的理由,看逻辑是否站得住脚、亦或是时间窗口是否吻合(即长期看空也可能短期反弹) 第一点,依然是我们在此前系列文章中反复强调的:由于美国在国际贸易和金融体系中的主导地位,其经常账户长期处于赤字,而资本账户则维持长期净流入,这种结构性特征已延续数十年(但持续很久的一件事物往往惯性都能维持很长时间,餐饮界有个说法:一个持续百年的老字号很可能还能开一百年,而一个刚开业一个月的新手店很可能下个月就要关门歇业)。 正是这一结构,使得全球范围内持续存在对美元资产的配置需求,从而支","plainDigest":"年初的时候写过几篇文章宣传美国例外论破产可能导致的弱势美元。今年上半年,美元指数录得自1973年以来最差的半年表现,下跌了11.3%。 弱势美元的持续也点燃了许多连带交易,譬如做多新兴市场股票和一些对美元汇率敏感的大宗商品。 然而,美元这种持续快速下行的局面能否持续是一个值得思考的问题,上期文章从资金流向的角度,认为美元至少在短期内或已见底(当时基于资金流角度在短期内一同看好的还有包括美股在内的全球风险资产,以及美债虽有长期压力,但近期不再适合做空)。 图:根据美银的统计,今年上半年美元的跌幅很不寻常 特别是目前我们仍然不能确定美元的技术层面完成了向下突破。下图中美元长期月线图虽然轻微的跌破了从2011年以来上行线,但是仍然需要一到两根月线来确认六月月线这一向下突破是否是“假信号”。只有真的确认跌破,才能预期美元将重演2002-2007年的弱势走法,否则2011年以来的长支撑线还不能轻易看破。 图:美元长周期技术走势到了十字路口,是支撑线反弹还是向下突破? 鉴于弱美元交易走到了真正的技术面十字路口并且是许多交易的逻辑起点(比如多EM股票),本期我们梳理下美元空方和多方的理由,看一下市场上支持全年弱美元和支持美元将可能反弹的视角各自的道理都是什么,以便后期慢慢证实或证伪这些逻辑。 首先来看支持美元下半年还将继续下跌的理由,看逻辑是否站得住脚、亦或是时间窗口是否吻合(即长期看空也可能短期反弹) 第一点,依然是我们在此前系列文章中反复强调的:由于美国在国际贸易和金融体系中的主导地位,其经常账户长期处于赤字,而资本账户则维持长期净流入,这种结构性特征已延续数十年(但持续很久的一件事物往往惯性都能维持很长时间,餐饮界有个说法:一个持续百年的老字号很可能还能开一百年,而一个刚开业一个月的新手店很可能下个月就要关门歇业)。 正是这一结构,使得全球范围内持续存在对美元资产的配置需求,从而支","sourceLanguage":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","editable":false,"auditStatus":"PASSED","topFlag":false,"totalScore":0,"gmtCreate":1752580359711,"gmtModify":1752586078320,"symbols":[],"themeIds":["59a412fb8d4641718bdda1e896e8f762"],"themes":[{"themeId":"59a412fb8d4641718bdda1e896e8f762","themeType":0,"name":"【讨论】特朗普亲赴美联储!鲍威尔要下台了?"}],"popularizeThemeFlag":false,"imageCount":9,"images":[{"url":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1725dbef76a3eea9eca9c3ada5d840a","width":"580","height":"376"},{"url":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fc0e30b5869b1efae603f4b00980417","width":"832","height":"356"},{"url":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26cf9a5915e9269c35c6d6afc3fca0a","width":"738","height":"360"}],"repostCount":0,"viewCount":18223,"likeCount":17,"liked":false,"collected":false,"commentCount":0,"hotComments":[],"voteFlag":false,"rewardFlag":false,"videoFlag":false,"articleFlag":false,"paperFlag":true,"essentialFlag":true,"highlightedFlag":false,"shareLink":"https://laohu8.com/post/456881006907536","orderFlag":false,"starInvestorRankings":[],"featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4970,"displayRows":4,"foldSize":0,"authorId":"3451551789721456"}]}],"nextStartFromId":"456881006907536","nextStartFromTime":1752586078186,"size":19,"extra":{"algoRequestId":"999999"}},"footer":true}